Jim Cramer is Confused About Nascent Market/Dollar Congruence - Here's the Answer

Jim Cramer, my former colleague at another financial publisher and who I respect, said on his TV show Tuesday night that “he had no answer” for why the stock market was now rising alongside U.S. dollar appreciation. Well, I have that answer. It’s all about an important change in the economy. For the whole story see Jim Cramer has a Question - I have the Answer.

Security Sector	05-23-16 to 05-25-16 Close to Close
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+2.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+2.0%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+2.7%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+2.7%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+2.1%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+2.6%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	+2.6%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	+2.1%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	+2.1%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	+1.8%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	+1.0%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	+0.7%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	+1.9%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	+1.7%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-6.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-2.0%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+3.2%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	Unchanged

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Why Gold is Not Gaining on Greece

Gold investors may be dumbfounded this Monday morning by the inaction of the precious metal. The Greeks voted “no” over the weekend and stocks opened to turmoil on Monday. Uncertainty around the Greece issue has never been more prominent, and yet the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which tracks the spot price of the metal, was relatively unchanged in the early AM on Monday. The reason is simple, the dollar factor still outweighs the safe haven factor for gold, and so as the dollar gained this morning, the upside for gold was stymied. Thus, it does appear the Greek Gods show no favor to gold. See the report on Greece & gold here.

Precious Metals Relative Security	Monday at Noon
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.2%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.5%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+1.4%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+0.1%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+3.9%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	+0.9%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Merkel vs. Obama - A Game of He Said She Said

Last week, a rumor supposedly leaked from a French government representative indicated President Obama said that the current strength of the dollar was problematic. The dollar weakened on the news, which would serve the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to begin its monetary tightening plans; that in turn serves the economy long-term. The President had to deny ever saying it, given its unpatriotic connotations, but I’m sure many market players still believe he said it; and it has impacted the dollar in my view. This morning in Germany, it seems the German Chancellor fired a salvo back onto the currency battlefield. Angela Merkel said a strong euro was not a good thing for nations on the periphery of the eurozone economy. In speaking on the euro and in sharing her indicated preference for current weakness, the dollar recovered some of that previously lost ground and the battle was balanced again in the stealth currency war between trading partners. Though working now into the late Friday afternoon, the dollar is back near where it started the day. See my report He Said She Said. Article interests ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO), CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares US Dollar Bear (NYSE: UDN). 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Obama's Dollar Diss & EU Market Manipulation

In the wee hours of a solemn Monday morning as I scribbled my thoughts for followers, sometime around 4 AM EDT, I noted a sharp drop in the dollar index. As I scrambled to figure out what had happened to cause the counterintuitive decline, I found what stank of European desperation. In fact, I noted that a series of public statements over the past couple trading days had illustrated that the Europeans are desperate to prop up the euro against a strengthening dollar. As Greece appears headed for a nightmarish scenario for the eurozone, it shows just how concerning the situation really is. However, no matter how much noise is mixed into the trading, the key catalyst for dollar gains remains and it will drive the dollar higher. See my report on the dollar here. Article interests PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE), ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) and iShares Euro ETF (NYSE: EURS).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Dollar Dazed but NOT Knocked Out

The dollar was dazed recently, knocked down by economic data from Europe. Then it got a second kick in the head last Wednesday when rumors of a more conciliatory EU drove speculation for an impending deal with Greece. The move might have some traders confused given that Greece recently seemed headed toward panic; you might have expected the euro to be expressing as much. I think aggressive investors can look past the last couple days’ action and for a dollar rebound near-term. I suspect Greece will not take the first offer while stubbornly holding to demands. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data due Friday might revive concern about the Fed and its rate hike plans. Over the longer term, I do expect the dollar to drift lower, but not until after another push upward. See my report on the dollar here. Article interests Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) and iShares Euro ETF (NYSE: EURS).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold, Euro & the Dollar – What’s Next

Gold found some support early this month thanks to worrisome U.S. economic data. The precious metal gained currency against the dollar as questions were raised about the direction of the economy. While the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) was still down for the week thanks to a poor opening to the period on renewed concern about Greece and the euro, economic concern proved an important counterweight. This week presents the likelihood for more of the same mix, so expect volatility. Whichever is weakest, the euro or the dollar, will determine the path for gold. See my article on gold & the dollar here. Article interests PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE) and ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Dollar Resurgence – How to Capture Greenback Gains

The dollar's resurgence of the past week has momentum and is built on substance. Since marking a recent bottom in mid-May, the dollar index spot exchange rate has increased over 4% into May 26 trading. I believe the move was ignited by renewed concern about the euro due to an intensification of concern about Greece. It has been supported by other recent events about the dollar and euro, but it is the Greece issue that I believe gives the move substance and momentum. If you agree, you might use the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP) to hedge against any relative risk or to capture the activity, and/or derivatives of the UUP to speculatively capitalize on the move. See the report on the dollar.

Disclosure: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold vs. Dollar – Guess Which is Today's Favored Geopolitical Capital Flight Destination

As capital makes its flight to safety over the geopolitical scare in Yemen, it has its usual two favorite destinations to choose from. Capital tends to favor U.S. treasuries over gold at times like these, but given the richness of the dollar, gold may gain greater favor this time around. See my full report on gold vs. the dollar in a capital flight to safety. 

Precious Metals & Dollar Relative Securities	03-26-15
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.6%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP)	+0.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.4%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold is Now Impervious to Dollar Pain!

Gold exhibited important strength against a dollar headwind last week that I believe implies the precious metal sits on solid ground here and faces little downside risk. Thursday’s impressive performance against dollar strength says to me that it might be impervious to dollar pain at this level. With my expectation that the dollar should top out soon, I think gold investors can make base camp here and wait for upside catalyst; in other words buy. See my full report on gold and the dollar here.

Security	02-26-15	YTD	TTM
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+1.0%	+4.1%	+16.8%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.3%	+1.7%	-9.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+0.8%	+13.1%	-19.7%
Market Vector Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+0.8%	+9.4%	-36.0%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.1%	+5.1%	-22.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Short the Dollar – Sell the UUP

Traders with long bets on the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP) have enjoyed a great run this year. However, I believe longs should now close the trade and consider shorting the security, as I have, or take a long interest in the security’s inverse pairing, the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN). The dollar index was giving way again in overnight trading after dropping in Thursday’s trade. It’s a move I’ve been waiting on for a short while now. My reasoning has been that the Greece euro-zone concern has been overblown, and that as that became apparent to the market, the euro would recover some ground against the dollar. Peace in Ukraine, however fragile, is just a bonus I had not planned on but supports the play. Go short UUP here; I have done so using March at-the-money and June out-of-the money puts. See our report on short the dollar here.

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short the UUP ETF. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Dollar Drive is Done – Buy the UDN

The dollar move of the last forever or so is ending now in my opinion, so I’m suggesting investors move into securities like the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish ETN (NYSE: UDN) immediately. You might also buy puts in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETN (NYSE: UUP), or look to the commodities that will benefit from a weaker dollar, like energy and other areas, using securities like the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) or the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which will lag energy due to capital flows from precious metals now flooding into energy. See my full report on the dollar here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The 1 Factor Driving Markets Right Now

This rally is clearly being driven by the apparently now lower likelihood that Greece will leave the euro-zone, and the dollar is depreciating, which is the catalyst for heavily beaten energy stocks. Capital flows to and fro are importantly driving sector flows as smart money seeks to advantage from the opportunity. See my important stock market report here.

DISCLOSURES: Kaminis is long AAPL and FB. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Russia’s War on the Dollar Serves Gold

Russia’s incursion into Ukraine caused a rift between Russia and the U.S. & Europe. It led the West to issue sanctions against Russia and to threaten to apply deeper cutting actions. Russia recognizes the damage the West can do to its economy today, and so our former cold war foe has begun to take action to protect itself. Its actions include the acquisition of gold reserves replacing U.S. Treasuries, and also the use of other than dollar currencies in its and its businesses’ trade settlements. Russian actions may work against the euro and the U.S. dollar, but they should serve gold; because the shiny metal will always be the one currency that has credibility globally, even when the world is not at peace. Thus, despite concerns I’ve expressed recently regarding a capital flow weight against gold and relative securities, this Russian reality offers a solidifying new support against that for gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). See the full version of this report published at Seeking Alpha and titled Russia’s War Against the Dollar will Support Gold Long-Term.

Precious Metal Relative Securities	YTD	TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+4.5%	-9.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-1.3%	-12.8%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+9.0%	-20.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: NUGT)	+13.5%	-70.6%
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS)	+4.8%	-9.5%