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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Greece - Your Guide to How this Ends

The scenarios around the Greece issue continue to weigh on the global markets. Stocks were broadly lower again on Tuesday’s open. It’s often been said that a game of chicken is being played between the Greek government and the austere of the Eurogroup. Who breaks first really matters here, but don’t watch the Greek and German governments for clues. Whoever breaks first, the Greek people or the peoples of the periphery of Europe, will determine who wins. U.S. investors have one simple need, and that is a resolution that keeps Greece in the eurozone, no matter the details. See our full guide to Greece and the keys to cure the crisis here.

Global Market Segments
At the Open
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-0.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-0.4%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-0.6%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
-0.5%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)
-1.2%
iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI)
-5.5%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK)
-1.8%
iShares MSCI Spain (NYSE: EWP)
-1.4%
iShares MSCI Italy (NYSE: EWI)
-1.2%
iShares MSCI France (NYSE: EWQ)
-1.6%
Global X FTSE Portugal 20 (NYSE: PGAL)
-2.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek

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Why Gold is Not Gaining on Greece

Gold investors may be dumbfounded this Monday morning by the inaction of the precious metal. The Greeks voted “no” over the weekend and stocks opened to turmoil on Monday. Uncertainty around the Greece issue has never been more prominent, and yet the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which tracks the spot price of the metal, was relatively unchanged in the early AM on Monday. The reason is simple, the dollar factor still outweighs the safe haven factor for gold, and so as the dollar gained this morning, the upside for gold was stymied. Thus, it does appear the Greek Gods show no favor to gold. See the report on Greece & gold here.

Precious Metals Relative Security
Monday at Noon
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+0.2%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
+0.5%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
+1.4%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)
+0.1%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT)
+3.9%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)
+0.9%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek businesses

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Monday, July 06, 2015

Greece’s Referendum No Vote – What it Means

The Greeks voted “No” Sunday in a referendum on whether to accept the bailout terms of the last program. I’m not completely shocked by the result though after examining how the decision was presented to the Greek people. The future is going to be complex, as the midnight hour is upon us now and all the most frightening scenarios are gaining weight. Contagion will begin to rear its ugly head now, as the indebted governments of the periphery see selfish opportunity for their own debt restructuring, and so support the Greeks. Meanwhile, the austere of the EU will believe they have good reason to hold course so as to not set precedent. The ECB is painted into a corner, and its legal obligations may dictate its decisions. For Greece and Europe, the next few days and weeks will be pivotal with high risk present for security investment in the near-term. For U.S. markets and investors, any severe declines likely make for good buying opportunity, but our future is foretold by the start of tightening monetary policy. If stocks do not move much on Greece, still avoid stocks at least into the first rate hike or two (see previous articles). See our full report on Greece's No Vote Referendum here.

Sector Security
Monday’s Start
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYES: VGK)
-1.8%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)
-2.2%
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE)
-0.6%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK)
-9.7%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)
-2.4%
iShares MSCI Italy (NYSE:  EWI)
-3.9%

US Equities
Monday’s Start
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-0.7%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-0.8%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-0.6%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
-0.7%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)
+4.0%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek

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Sunday, July 05, 2015

Greece - Alexis Tsipras’ Referendum Miscalculation Serves Stocks This Week

Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has made a critical miscalculation by waiting until the midnight hour to ask his people for a referendum vote on austerity. Filled with fear and panic at this point, with access to their bank savings cut off and with many other horror stories being foretold to them by opposing party politicians, I find it hard to believe a majority of Greeks will vote “No” to life-saving capital as Tsipras wishes. As a result, I expect global markets to rise on Monday on an expectation that either this Greek government or a newly formed one will agree to what is on the table with Greece’s creditors. See more on Greece's Tsipras and his big mistake

European Sector Security
YTD
TTM
iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV)
+5.4%
-8.5%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)
+6.3%
-7.9%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)
+12.7%
+10.6%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK)
-21.0%
-53.3%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)
+4.0%
-10.0%
iShares MSCI Spain (NYSE: EWP)
-1.6%
-18.9%
iShares MSCI Italy (NYSE: EWI)
+11.9%
-13.6%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek

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Wednesday, July 01, 2015

BREAKING: Tsipras Conceding on Points, Schauble Unmoved – Beware Rumor, Conjecture & Negotiating Tactics

Be careful about reacting to the minute by minute rumor and conjecture dished out by European players with interest in maintaining financial market stability, and also beware the big news break that each media outlet wants to be first to report. Throughout this Greek crisis, there have been erroneous reports about resolution and breakthrough, and nothing has come of any of it up to this point. This morning, I awoke at precisely the moment Bloomberg TV was reporting Alexis Tsipras was conceding significant ground via a letter and based on a tweet from an FT reporter (his full report is below). But reports like these have misled investors in the past, as it seems the Europeans on both sides of the table have been careful to maintain order and stability in the euro and financial markets, and I believe at times have misled the media. So, let’s wait and see before we react. See the full report on Tsipras' letter here. 

Relative Securities
Yesterday
YTD
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.2%
+1.1%
iShares Europe ETF (NYSE: IEV)
-0.8%
+5.4%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)
+0.02%
+11.9%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)
-0.6%
+5.7%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)
-0.8%
+4.0%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK)
+6.0%
-26.8%
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE)
-0.8%
-7.4%
iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX)
-1.0%
-35.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Best in New York

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Tuesday, June 30, 2015

The Full Catastrophe

In the words of the great fictional character of Greek fame, Zorbas, it’s “the full catastrophe.” Ironically, when Zorbas made that reference in regards to his marriage, he had no idea that his beloved Greece would also wed into the full catastrophe with the Eurogroup someday. Friends, in the week ahead nothing will matter more to global investors than the developments in Athens. In fact, a global stock market correction is possible. The Spanish leftists have not yet begun to protest; the Italians have not yet organized. When they do begin to show their opportunistic politically motivated support for Greece, and they will, things will get worse before they get better. That goes for the euro, European debt and equity markets and global stability, which rubs off over here. See my stock market report here.

Sector Security
YTD
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+3.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+1.8%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+6.6%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
+7.5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)
+3.8%
iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV)
+9.8%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK)
-14.3%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)
+9.2%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
-1.3%
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE)
-7.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Saturday, June 27, 2015

Does Greece Really Matter to U.S. Investors?

Greece
The answer is, well kind of. What matters to American investors are the factors affecting the American economy, U.S. industries and individual companies. External foreign issues can affect the U.S. economy, industries and companies, and in that way affect American investments and investor wealth. The Greece issue matters mostly because it could reverberate across the periphery of Europe. If Greece’s discontent carries over to Spain, Portugal or Italy, then it should affect the value of the euro in relation to the dollar; that has far reaching effects. Also, there’s risk in a Greek default because we do not know who owns Greek debt, which would go largely uncollected should the Greeks hit the reset button. Might the holders include American banks or important financial institutions overseas, and to what extent might it matter? Finally, fear alone, whether substantiated or not, could start a global stock market selloff; we have seen U.S. index futures taking the lead from Europe over the last several weeks on this intensifying Greece problem. That is not a good sign. See why Greece matters to U.S. investors.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

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Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Dollar Dazed but NOT Knocked Out

The dollar was dazed recently, knocked down by economic data from Europe. Then it got a second kick in the head last Wednesday when rumors of a more conciliatory EU drove speculation for an impending deal with Greece. The move might have some traders confused given that Greece recently seemed headed toward panic; you might have expected the euro to be expressing as much. I think aggressive investors can look past the last couple days’ action and for a dollar rebound near-term. I suspect Greece will not take the first offer while stubbornly holding to demands. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data due Friday might revive concern about the Fed and its rate hike plans. Over the longer term, I do expect the dollar to drift lower, but not until after another push upward. See my report on the dollar here. Article interests Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) and iShares Euro ETF (NYSE: EURS).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Philadelphia Flyers

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Monday, June 01, 2015

Greece is the Boy Who Cried Wolf

"We are very near an agreement" is something Greece's PM said on Wednesday and his finance minister has repeatedly stated. Yet, like a geometric shape that approaches its axis but never reaches it, no deal has ever resulted. Still, for some reason the global markets believed the smiling PM as he once again assured his own populace and everyone else who was listening that we're almost there. I've come to realize that much of what is behind this banter is political in nature, as back home the new government has been under the high heat since its entry into office. Every political party Greece now has to offer, with many now seeking to replace the crisis crippled PASOK and New Democracy parties, is blaming Syriza for completing the job Greece's old guard began. Syriza's head, Alexis Tsipras, has to present a positive and strong image to a nation that might be having second thoughts about their decision to elect him. In the end, no matter how many times Greece cries wolf, though, it will eventually have to slay the monster or be devoured by it. This game cannot go on forever, because Greece is about to run out of money. See the report on Greece. National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), Piraeus Bank (OTC: BPIRY).

Disclosure: Kaminis is short NBG. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek businesses

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Sunday, May 31, 2015

IF THIS IS TRUE About Greece, Gold Could Find Support

In this very dynamic environment critical issues are influencing security values minute to minute. An important development around Greece, if it plays out, sets the floor for gold here temporarily. Recently, I warned gold should decline and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) should drop toward $113 or lower, however this news that Greece could get a reprieve from the IMF for its June 5 payment sets the floor here for gold just above that level. I had suggested long-term investors hold gold through the storm, so you'll be glad to hear I think this latest storm perhaps just blew over. However, look for this issue to set up against gold again starting perhaps this week or sometime around mid-June if reports of a pending agreement between Greece and the Eurogroup prove faulty. See the report on gold and Greece. SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek

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Friday, February 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET RALLY IMMINENT ON GREEK NEWS BREAK

Stock Market Rally
A roaring market rally is probably imminent on the announcement of a favorable Greek resolution, as EU Finance Ministers are meeting in Brussels and there is impetus for the debate to come to a close today.

Greece has little time to close a deal with its euro-zone partners, with enough time for them to return to their home nations and get approval. For this reason, today's meeting is probably the one in which a deal is agreed to in principle. It is in nobody's interest for Greece to leave the euro-zone. Greece cannot afford the upheaval it would cause to its economy, and its government cannot risk driving it there. The euro-zone has no interest in returning to a climate of chaos and question about the EU's future. Germany even cannot afford to lose the weaker members of the euro-zone, lest the euro gain too much strength against the dollar and harm its exporting activity. A deal must come, and it should come momentarily.

Market action this year has been telling me something. The dollar has gotten extra lift against foreign currencies due to weakness in Europe and Japan, and due to the Greek disruption. Interest rates have come down in the U.S. to record levels, and stocks have been stymied in their tracks due to the uncertainty in the world.

But as the Greek issue is resolved, the flight to quality ends, and capital leaves U.S. treasuries for U.S. equities. The dollar will decline, gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and other relative ETFs will soar in value, along with gains oil and other commodities priced in dollars. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) should rise and stocks should soar broadly. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) has significant upside ahead of it near-term on this news, as do other broad market indices.

In order to leverage this move, I have been long the National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG) since it was a dollar a share; long the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK); long Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) on the expected rise of interest rates; short the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP); and short the iPath S&P VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX); and long other equities.

Thank you for your interest and please follow along (there are many ways), as we will shortly be offering a subscriber section to more formally assist followers with security and portfolio selection.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.


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Thursday, February 19, 2015

Greece – How Vitriol, Fear & Sensationalism Form Resolution

Greece on Map
By Markos N. Kaminis
www.WallStreetGreek.com

This article is free for republishing by any publisher without special request but only with proper attribution to the author and website as provided above.

Despite all of the vitriol emanating from the German side toward the Greeks and from the new Greek leadership about the former agreements of the predecessor government and the troika, I’m confident a favorable resolution is highly probable between Greece and its lenders. So do not hang on every sensationalized suggestion of reporters blindly reading cue cards prepared for them quickly by writers more concerned about getting all their content tied up before the show airs. Pay attention to the actual situation and the realities of it, and see beyond the poignant language used by those negotiating and those reporting it.

Markos N. Kaminis
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Each morning we hear business television blatantly reporting things like “Germany rejected Greece’s offer,” or Greece did something negative. It’s all part of that sensationalism many media seem to get wrapped up in that causes them to not stop and take a moment to think. Or maybe they are simply reading the cue cards presented to them by the producers, who also give little time to any one topic for the sake of keeping the machine rolling.

Whatever it is, I’m tired of it, because it drives the losses of significant capital. Real money is on the table, though none of it from the reporters’ or producers’ perspective, as they are not allowed to own stock; the same often goes for analysts. But many of you are making panicked financial decisions based on some random person’s hurried words while on air from Athens, a place they neither understand nor care to know intimately since they only just arrived and are leaving in two days en route to the next catastrophic development to feed America’s television addiction.

When Greece was new to desperation and first in need of lifesaving capital from the troika, it signed onto about every prideful demand of every organization that believed itself entitled to demand whatever it liked of its desperate debtor. Those old faces of Greece did so not to dupe the Greek people for the sake of their own prosperity, but to survive, because it was the only option that did not involve severe disruption of the Greek economy and standard of living, or so they thought. What we learned was that there was no such option for Greece really, and a lot of that was due to Standard & Poor’s curiously timed downgrade of Greece, which just so happened to preserve the dollar and U.S. interest rates when all looked lost for America. I may discuss this issue in another forum or media at a later date.

After the loss of lives of many good Greeks on the abrupt changes thrust upon them, driving unemployment, bankruptcy, homelessness and suicide, new voices arose that noticed this bailout thing might not have been optimal. Recently, I heard the new finance minister said something about a cow and how whipping it will not make a poor milk producer do better. It reminded me of my own desperate pleas made a few years ago to whoever would read me about the bad idea Europe had for Greece regarding abrupt and disruptive austerity. Why should the Germans be surprised that Greeks would vote in a new government once their eyes were opened? It’s because the Germans haven’t missed a meal, or seen a cousin jump off a bridge, or lost their jobs, savings and homes. German dignity is intact; it’s blind, insensitive and intolerant, but intact.

Fortunately for Greece, there are other nations also involved in making decisions in Europe, and some of them have likewise felt the pain Greece has suffered. And fortunately for Greece, the Europeans will fear the unknown consequences of a Grexit more than giving Greece some room to breathe, and will make concessions to preserve stability. There’s too much risk for Europe to endure from what might happen, and it does not have the stomach for another tumultuous time. The same goes for Greeks, who despite enduring great pains from austerity, fear more what might happen if Greece were ousted from the euro-zone. Some Greeks have started to see improvement and do not want to return to the days of burning streets and disrupted lives.

There are some real worries though. For instance, worry about Alexis Tsipras’ press for a Parliamentary vote on austerity and basically euro-zone participation, which is a real concern considering his party’s new power. This should be a referendum issue and not one decided while Greece tempts Europe, because this government is too new and the people have expressed strong preference to remain in the euro-zone. And also worry about European hard-liners, who treat Greece more like a drug addicted stranger than an old wise brother who has gone through some tough times lately. Worry about people who want to make critical decisions on a short timeline and ahead of deadlines and drop dead dates.

In conclusion, the human condition and the patterns of people should lead to a surprising amicable solution, because in the end, nobody wants to usher in uncertainty and potential chaos. That is doubled for a region that is just coming through such a period. European hard-liners without personal attachments to issues will find it easy to back off seemingly solid demands and let softer voices balance the way. New Greek leaders, who spoke boldly before gaining power, will find power comes with great responsibility. Fear of failing the Greek people will cause those leaders to tread carefully lest they make an epic mistake. Change is something best tested and tasted before diving into, and fear of making a great mistake should lead Greece and its euro-zone partners to some compromise.

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and short the PowerShares US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX) on the thesis of a Greece euro-zone resolution. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Wall Street Greek Blog

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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Get Him to the GREK

Investors interested in leveraging the prospect of a favorable Greece resolution, but hoping to limit risk to any one individual Greek security, can look to the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK). The security has come off its highs on fear that Greece could leave the euro-zone. Though it has also come off its lows on the prospect of a favorable resolution, it still has a way to go higher because of the ongoing absence of that event. I think investors can buy it here for immediate upside to $15 on a quick fix and longer term gain to $17 to $20 this year. See our report Get Him to the GREK here.

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long the GREK ETF. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek

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Thursday, February 05, 2015

National Bank of Greece (NBG) – Why I Went Long Recently

When all appeared lost and everyone thought a Greece exit from the euro-zone was imminent, I went long the National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG) when the stock was trading at around a dollar; I took my long position via long-term call options. It was a classic buy into fear moment and the blood was in the streets, but I still see opportunity for further upside in NBG and am still long today despite a better than 100% gain in my calls so far. I believe long-term investors are wise to look at NBG shares even now while they trade at approximately $1.50, along with all Greek equities. Investors can also use the Global X FTSE Greece (NYSE: GREK) to spread risk better, as it has a ways plenty of room to grow as well. See the report on NBG here.

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long NBG. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

wedding crown

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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Merkel Hypocrite!

Merkel hypocrite
Germany’s Finance Ministry warned in a monthly report Monday that Europe’s largest economy would mark a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter. In an attempt to mitigate the economic issue, German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week suggested opposing German political party members stop blocking her proposed tax cuts. Merkel indicated that the German economy needed economic stimulus, and that tax cuts should help domestic economic growth by giving her countrymen more money to spend. Likewise, she is promoting pension contribution cuts to help German prosperity, and advising companies to give more lucrative pay increases to their employees. Sounds sensible no?

Greek
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Now imagine the perspective of a Southern European onlooker. The hypocritical divergence of the two directives being issued to the various groups must fill Greeks with disgust. European leaders, at the nudging of Germany, have pushed the complete opposite strategy for Greek and Spanish prosperity than those being promoted in Germany today. So which is the true path to prosperity, the one being promoted by the Germans for the Germans or the one being promoted by the Germans for the Greeks?

Obviously, the issue is more complex than that, given the debt and management problems of the Greeks versus the smooth operating German economic machine. The Greeks must adhere to the prescription of their emergency creditors in order to receive desperately needed funds. Still, why does the economic prescription contrast so sharply to the pill being recommended by Merkel for the Germans? It is after all for the same ultimate purpose, the betterment of the economy, and in Greece’s situation, the ensuring of debt repayment.

Perhaps the Europeans have it all wrong with regard to Greece, and instead of ensuring the repayment of their loans, are instead burying their money into a deep depression with the ruins of Ancient Athens. That’s what the esteemed student of the Great Depression now running the American Federal Reserve might suggest, given Ben Bernanke’s comments to U.S. legislators over the years. He would tell you that it was precisely the mistimed budget mindedness of American leaders that led our economy into the Great Depression. It turned an average recession into a once in a generation economic struggle.

A few voices, including from yours truly, have from the beginning warned that growth spurring initiatives for Southern Europe should precede and outweigh a graduated austerity program, and that Greece’s repayment program should have extended terms. We have been happy to see Europe more recently acknowledging the burdensome drag of its initial repayment demands.

Still, while Greece’s public entities reduce workforce, draw back pension benefits and raise taxes, they are constraining the Greek economy. This is something that the Germans can no longer dispute, given their own domestic policy push, though to be fair, Merkel’s opponents are calling her demands irresponsible. The repercussions of the actions in Greece are pushing away private industry, illustrated recently by the move of Coca-Cola Hellenic (NYSE: CCH), which is relocating its headquarters to Switzerland and relisting its shares in London. Merkel does not want to trigger that same sort of flight in Germany, but is asking for companies that face no foreign competition to pay an alternative energy surcharge from which they have long been exempted.

What drives German stocks, like those found in the DAX and the iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG), likewise drives Greek stocks, like those found in the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK). For that matter, it’s what drives the iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV) and the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)! The rules of economic prosperity are indifferent to the language spoken or culture found within a given country; they are universal. Thus, the economic policy prescribed to Greece and Spain should be the same as that being recommended for Germany, or at least should stress growth over austerity.

It is ignorant closed-mindedness and ethnocentricity which has kept the groups of people within the euro-zone from fairly and effectively resolving their crisis together. The problem is most clear when the leaders of Europe go home to seek approval of international plans. We understand the cost of this issue through the observance of the most effective action taken to-date, which in my opinion was the brave plan of the Mario Draghi led European Central Bank (ECB) to support sovereign debt in a sterilized manner. When Europe can accept its unity on the streets of Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Athens and Madrid, then it will have the resources and the will to fulfill its brave dream. On that day, it can likewise stop lying to the Greeks and the Spaniards about what’s best today for their economies.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Kaminis

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