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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



Wall Street, business & other videos updated regularly...

Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Buy Gold – Inflation is Coming Back

I’m sure the mere mention of inflation will draw a vitriol response from some econo-watchers, but believe it or not, early signs of a pickup in pricing are turning up. I first noted an uptick in inflation shown in the Core Consumer Price Index for February and talked about the benefit to gold in Gold - Hello Inflation My Old Friend. I said I would watch inflation for gold investors, and I have since seen two more early inflation signs. Inflation seems to be emerging and there should be serious benefit to gold if it does and as the market becomes aware of it. See the gold report here.

Precious Metals Securities
03-31-15 2:20 PM ET
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
-0.2%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
-0.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
-0.9%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)
-0.7%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)
-4.0%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)
+2.4%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)
-0.7%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)
-0.9%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

lost dog

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Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Inflation Fear is Still Haunting this Market

Today’s market is likely being affected by the Durable Goods Orders data, which came in modestly disappointing. Moderately poor economic data is a good thing now though, because it keeps the Fed on hold. Obviously, if the economy tanks and we fall into recession, that’s another story, but a slower growth economy helps keep easy money and low rates in play. Still, I believe today’s market is still bearing the burden of yesterday’s hint of inflation found in the CPI data. For as long as there are inflation concerns, stocks will be stymied. See my full report on inflation and the market here.

Market Sector Security
03-25-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-1.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-1.7%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)
-1.0%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
-1.6%
PowerShares US Dollar Bear (NYSE: UDN)
+0.3%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
+2.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+0.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

stocks

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Gold Says Hello Inflation My Old Friend

Gold benefits from inflation because inflation erodes the value of the dollar, but inflation has been nowhere to be found for what seems like forever now. Yet, while examining the day’s market catalysts, I noted something unusual. It was a hint of inflation. Inflation doesn’t have many friends and is the enemy of the stock market, but it has a loyal friend in gold. See my full report on gold and inflation here.

Gold Relative Security
YTD
TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+0.2%
-9.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
+8.2%
-15.2%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
+7.5%
-18.3%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)
+3.6%
-9.4%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)
-0.9%
-68.8%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)
+6.0%
-18.9%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)
+19.8%
-2.7%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Inflation Fear is Spooking Stocks

It was just a sniff, mind you, but it was of a foul odor. A whiff of inflation seen in the monthly Consumer Price Index data held back stocks Tuesday morning that I believe would have otherwise gained from the get-go. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) later resurfaced, as it was but a hint of bad news. However, it issues investors a warning of the possibility of a really poor scenario for stocks longer term. See my full report here.

Sector Security
03-24-15 Thru Noon
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)
+0.1%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)
-0.0%
Fidelity NASDAQ  ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)
+0.2%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)
-0.0%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)
-0.9%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
+0.1%
WisdomTree US$  Bullish (NYSE: USDU)
+0.3%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)
+0.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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TODAY’S MARKET – A Bad Economic Report a Day Should Keep the Fed Away but Not When Inflation Lurks

inflation
They say an apple a day keeps the doctor away. Likewise, a bad economic report a day keeps the Fed away. At least that’s what investors are hoping will be the outcome of moderately soft economic reports like the Durable Goods Orders data reported Wednesday. However, today’s drift seems to be a continuation of concern spurred by the scent of inflation we picked up yesterday. Find all your economic report and EPS report coverage below, and our analysis of markets at our Wall Street blog.

The Greek
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Today’s Stock Market


Stocks are modestly lower today as investors seek direction. The economic data is confusing, as the Durable Goods Orders showed softness. However, moderately poor data is good for as long as it helps hold off the Fed; that’s how the market will see it. Mortgage activity picked up, offering more hope for housing. Greece is still in play, with a submission of its plans expected on Monday. After a five hour meeting between Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Tsipras, hope exists that some resolution might evolve that keeps Greece in the euro-zone. Global stability is in play.

Finally, I think what is really weighing on the market is the continued concern about yesterday’s hint of inflation seen in the Core CPI uptick. You’ll want to explore my discussion about that here. There’s a lot in play, and little reason to move anywhere today as a result. We could be stymied or even see downside direction until strategists come forward to argue against the inflation case. I expect that will happen eventually, as inflation is still moderate.

Security
03-25-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-1.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-1.7%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
+0.3%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
+1.3%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)
-0.0%
PowerShares US $ Bear (NYSE: UDN)
-0.1%

Stocks are lower on inflation concern, while the dollar is also lower on the same catalyst. The dollar decline is pushing up oil despite a strong crude inventory build reported today. It is having the same effect on gold.

Economic Reports


ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE

Economic Data Point
Prior
Expect
Actual
WEDNESDAY



+2.0%*
0.7%
-1.4%
-Ex-Transportation
-0.7%*
0.3%
-0.4%
-3.9%

+9.5%



-Crude Oil Inventory
9.6 MB

8.2 MB
-Gasoline Inventory
-4.5 MB






The economic report schedule was relatively light this morning but still carried quite a punch. Durable Goods Orders is a widely followed data point, but investors must understand that high-ticket prices for planes, trains and automobiles promote volatility in the headline data change month-to-month. For this reason, we look to the ex-transportation data. This month, ex-transportation, durable goods orders declined 0.4% against Wall Street expectations for a 0.3% increase. Also the prior month’s data was revised lower, so the report offers bad news about the economy. However, remember that bad news, as long as it is not too bad, serves stocks today because it helps keep the Fed away.

Mortgage Applications spiked for the reported period, up 9.5% against the prior week’s 3.9% decline. I’m looking for a pickup in housing, as I’ve discussed in recent articles. As the banks meet Fed critical standards and gain financial flexibility to return capital to shareholders, they also find more capital for lending. Look for lending standards to loosen and for the housing recovery to benefit.

Crude oil inventory saw yet another large build of supply, with 8.2 million barrels being added to inventory that is already well ahead of the seasonal average for the last 80 years. We’re at record levels in fact. I have a 2 part report in queue about the oil glut and how I believe the media has sensationalized a perceived risk and helped oil price decline. You’ll want to stay tuned to our blog for more on this.

EPS Reports


We are at the very tail end of the Q4 reporting period and about to enter the Q1 EPS season. As a result, the list of companies reporting earnings now is short. Still, I’ll be watching Five Below (Nasdaq: FIVE) today. It experienced holiday season softness and fell sharply into this report; the report itself should confirm that, but I’m a value seeker.

PVH (NYSE: PVH) is a housing company reporting today that you will want to keep an eye on for a bead on housing. Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) will garner market interest as well.

EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
WEDNESDAY

Affimed
Nasdaq: AFMD
Apollo Education
Nasdaq: APOL
China Mobile Games & Ent.
Nasdaq: CMGE
Dermira
Nasdaq: DERM
Destination XL Group
Nasdaq: DXLG
Five Below
Nasdaq: FIVE
Francesca’s Holdings
Nasdaq: FRAN
Iao Kun Group
Nasdaq: IKGH
Kingstone Companies
Nasdaq: KINS
Leidos Holdings
Nasdaq: LDOS
Lindsay
NYSE: LNN
LiqTech Int’l
Nasdaq: LIQT
Monogram Residential Trust
Nasdaq: MORE
On Track Innovations
Nasdaq: OTIV
Orient Paper
NYSE: ONP
Pacific Sunwear
Nasdaq: PSUN
Paychex
Nasdaq: PAYX
Progress Software
Nasdaq: PRGS
PVH Corp.
NYSE: PVH
Red Hat
NYSE: RHT
REX American Resources
NYSE: REX
USD Partners
Nasdaq: USDP
Vascular Biogenics
Nasdaq: VBLT
Verint Systems
Nasdaq: VRNT
Worthington Industries
NYSE: WOR
Yingli Green Energy
NYSE: YGE

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek Parade

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Thursday, June 12, 2014

Russia’s War on the Dollar Serves Gold

destroyer
Russia’s incursion into Ukraine caused a rift between Russia and the U.S. & Europe. It led the West to issue sanctions against Russia and to threaten to apply deeper cutting actions. Russia recognizes the damage the West can do to its economy today, and so our former cold war foe has begun to take action to protect itself. Its actions include the acquisition of gold reserves replacing U.S. Treasuries, and also the use of other than dollar currencies in its and its businesses’ trade settlements. Russian actions may work against the euro and the U.S. dollar, but they should serve gold; because the shiny metal will always be the one currency that has credibility globally, even when the world is not at peace. Thus, despite concerns I’ve expressed recently regarding a capital flow weight against gold and relative securities, this Russian reality offers a solidifying new support against that for gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). See the full version of this report published at Seeking Alpha and titled Russia’s War Against the Dollar will Support Gold Long-Term.

Precious Metal Relative Securities
YTD
TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+4.5%
-9.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
-1.3%
-12.8%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
+9.0%
-20.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: NUGT)
+13.5%
-70.6%
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS)
+4.8%
-9.5%

Greek wedding crowns

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Sunday, February 24, 2013

Real Estate is Fueling Inflation

Housing has served to quell prices generally over the past several years, but that’s all changing now. With real estate prices clearly on the rise, this important sector with its many tentacles threatens to give lift to prices of all sorts.

Rental Rate Rise
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) published this past week for the month of January showed pricing for shelter up 0.2% month-to-month, and it was up 2.2% for the year. Not all of the increase was due to the real estate recovery though. For instance, the real estate collapse almost immediately affected residential rental rates in an inflationary manner, because as homeownership diminished, shelter was still necessary. So, as demand for rentals increased, given limited supply, rental prices rose and they are still rising. The CPI report showed that rent and owner’s equivalent rent increased by 0.2% in January 2013. That’s good news for Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV) and peers but not for American renters.

Commercial Property Cull
The economic recession that followed the real estate collapse and financial sector crisis put pressure on commercial property leasing rates. But as the economy recovers, with accelerating GDP growth anticipated for this year and next by the Federal Reserve, commercial property rates should inflate in kind. Indeed, they have been and continue to appreciate.

Residential Rise
With distressed housing supply dissipating and with demand spurred by low rates and lower home prices; plus aided by the support of population and economic growth, residential housing prices are also finally on the rise. Indexes of home prices produced by the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller each indicate an apparent appreciating trend for real estate prices. It’s an important change from recent years past, with extensive consequences.

Materials Cost Increase
As demand for new homes and for home improvement products increase, so does demand for construction materials and the retailers which provide them, including Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW). Building materials and supply makers like USG (NYSE: USG), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) and Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST) should see raw materials costs increase but they are gaining more pricing power as well.

Higher Cost of Labor
The real estate collapse led to a massive purging of construction sector employment, with millions of laborers losing their jobs. Many of those former construction workers have moved on and found other work, and in some cases, careers. So as the sector recovers, a labor shortage has developed as confirmed to me by Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) executives earlier this month. Where supply does not meet demand, prices rise, and so labor costs for homebuilders should likewise be on the rise. All of these matters matter to homebuilders like Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) and Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV).

Peripheral Price Rise
Similarly, prices for the things that fill homes should gain support now. This means furniture makers and retailers and manufacturers of home items like Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen Interiors (NYSE: ETH), Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) should gain some pricing power as they see increasing demand.

Mortgage Rate Rise
Mortgage lenders are also benefiting from increasing demand for homes. Mortgage rates are on the rise despite the Fed’s best efforts to keep rates down through monetary policy and its asset purchase programs. We recently suggested that there is a lender shortage, due to the business fallout during the crisis and the regulatory rules established after the fact. Big banks like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) are contending with hefty aggregate loan balances, while the two and peers Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) also deal with the low returns available to them. This is drawing smaller players back into the game, but perhaps not fast enough.

As you can see, demand for shelter is an important factor in the inflation equation. It has extensive reach and broad consequences. Price gains here are symptomatic of a recovering economy and asset class, but they also mark cost of living increases for American consumers nonetheless. Inflation threatens and housing is one sure factor that will fuel it.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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