Geopolitical Risky Weekend Passed – What’s Next?

Stocks enjoyed a relief rally Monday thanks to the peaceful passing through the weekend without any surprising turn of events tied to the conflict in Yemen. I saw risk coming off in the days heading into the weekend, as wars and rumors of wars took capital off the table ahead of the two-day market closure. Monday’s rally was very likely solely due to the fact that no surprising bad outcome resulted over the weekend. Now that investors can trade freely again, some capital has come back into stocks. See this full report here.

Market Sector Security	03-30-15 Through Noon
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+1.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+1.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+1.1%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+1.0%
PowerShares DB US Dollar (NYSE: UUP)	+0.7%
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS)	-1.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-0.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stocks Could Test 200-Day as Risk Comes Off Ahead of Weekend

Friday is a bad day to double down on geopolitical risk, but as we approach the weekend, it appears that is exactly what is happening. As Saudi Arabia and Egypt adventure forward with possible plans for an assault on Houthis in Yemen, it appears the media is grabbing hold of many Middle East issues now, and that is likely to exacerbate fear. This is just the sort of Middle East mess we do not need to worry about over 2 days of closed markets, so stocks could selloff Friday as a result. Investors concerned about bearing weekend market risk can buy protection via various volatility instruments like the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) or buy gold relative instruments like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). See my full stock market report here.

Market Sector Security	03-26-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.3%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.1%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.2%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP)	+0.4%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.7%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+4.9%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

TODAY’S MARKET – Enter Geopolitics

When things get dirty, they tend to continue on to downright messy and finally nasty. Stocks were in the midst of questioning dollar strength and the Fed’s plans given the nascent inflation uptick seen in the Core CPI data earlier this week. Enter geopolitics today, and stocks are selling off some more, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) dropping through the 100-day moving average today. In recent times, the demarcation line has served as a buy signal, but given the immediate issue is just warming up in Yemen (watch Iran), we may even approach the 200-day moving average line; and that’s without the issue of inflation gaining more attention. Take note that this geopolitical distraction could remove the inflation question from view, and what comes next could serve as a rally cry. The day’s economic data was positive, and I see consumer spending increasing near-term. Tomorrow brings a final revision to Q4 GDP, though, which was quite depressing most recently. Consumer sentiment will also be reported, and I think that will add some new fire to stocks. I believe day-traders should be buyers here. Long-term investors should be moving away from the broad market securities, as a stock-picker’s market will pervade as we move forward. Our Wall Street blog.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Today’s Market

Sector Security	03-26-15 AM
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)	-0.4%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)	-0.5%
Fidelity NASDAQ  ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)	-1.0%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)	+1.7%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)	-1.0%
ProShares Ultra Oil (NYSE: UCO)	+5.7%
WisdomTree US$  Bullish (NYSE: USDU)	+0.2%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)	-0.8%

Gold and oil prices are higher today as Saudi Arabian forces are bombing Houthis rebels in Yemen, after the Houthis initiated a coup. Egyptian warships are heading toward Yemen, and most neighboring nations are supporting the government, while Iran supports the Houthis. What seemed like it would be a defensive military position by the Saudis developed into an offensive push, and that has raised the stakes against global stability. The resolve of Houthis’ allies is questionable, as is that of other nations supporting the government, but the Saudis already have their hands dirty. Gold is not getting the type of lift it might get if a global power were involved, though it is higher, but oil is up significantly more due to the involvement of Saudi Arabia and the threat of Iran.

Stocks were already in decline on nascent inflation concern, in my opinion, due to the Core CPI increase reported this week. Stocks are off some more this morning because of this global instability. The dollar is higher, though, as it continues to represent a flight to safety destination. Gold is up more, though, given the dollar’s already extended state.

Economic Reports

ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expect	Actual
THURSDAY
Weekly Jobless Claims	291K	293K	282K
PMI Services Flash	57.0	57.0	58.6
Kansas City Fed Mgf. Index	1	0
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	44.2		45.5
EIA Natural Gas Report	-45 bcf		12 bcf
Lockhart Speaks
Bullard Speaks

The economic report schedule produced a positive tone Thursday morning. Weekly Jobless Claims dropped against the prior week’s result to 282K. It’s an enthusing level of new filings for unemployment insurance, and less than economists expected. This is not necessarily a data point economists spend much time forecasting though given its regular reporting.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort, a weekly measure of the consumer mood, improved rather significantly. I attribute the weather friends. Already this past weekend I saw them, those families and couples that had been hunkered down all winter. They ventured out, underdressed and hopelessly consumption commercialized. They were out shopping, dining and exploring the city’s venues which require a ticket purchase. In other words, hope springs eternal and American consumers are coming to life as we approach the Easter spend.

Markit Economics’ PMI Services measure improved to 58.6 from 57.0, showing further signs of economic green sprouts this spring. Some of this is seasonal in a different way, with the hiring of lawyers and tax preparers accelerating around this time of year. But some of this is a reflection of our stronger labor situation and economy.

EPS Reports

I never got to that report I wanted to give you, and I apologize, as Five Below (Nasdaq: FIVE) is higher this morning by 11% as I expected. I’ll still be producing research on the company for you, as long-term stakes still need direction.

A wide variety of companies are reporting today, including ConAgra (NYSE: CAG), GameStop (NYSE: GME), Cosi (Nasdaq: COSI) Lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU), Scholastic (Nasdaq: SCHL), Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) and Winnebago (NYSE: WGO).

EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
THURSDAY
Accenture	NYSE: CAN
Adaptive Medias	Nasdaq: ADTM
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics	Nasdaq: BCLI
Calithera Biosciences	Nasdaq: CALA
Cara Therapeutics	Nasdaq: CARA
Commercial Metals	NYSE: CMC
ConAgra Foods	NYSE: CAG
Cosi	Nasdaq: COSI
DGSE Companies	Nasdaq: DGSE
FibroGen	Nasdaq: FGEN
Fred’s	Nasdaq: FRED
GameStop	NYSE: GME
Gevo	Nasdaq: GEVO
Global Sources	Nasdaq: GSOL
Interphase	Nasdaq: INPH
Leatt	Nasdaq: LEAT
Lululemon Athletica	Nasdaq: LULU
Marathon Patent	Nasdaq: MARA
Minerva Neurosciences	Nasdaq: NERV
Newtek Business Services	Nasdaq: NEWT
Nova LifeStyle	Nasdaq: NVFY
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals	NYSE: NBY
NTN Buzztime	NYSE: NTN
NV5 Holdings	Nasdaq: NVEE
Oxford Industries	NYSE: OXM
Restoration Hardware	NYSE: RH
Scholastic	Nasdaq: SCHL
Signet Jewelers	NYSE: SIG
STR Holdings	Nasdaq: STRI
voxeljet	NYSE: VJET
Winnebago Industries	NYSE: WGO
World Point Terminals	NYSE: WPT

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Inflation Fear is Still Haunting this Market

Today’s market is likely being affected by the Durable Goods Orders data, which came in modestly disappointing. Moderately poor economic data is a good thing now though, because it keeps the Fed on hold. Obviously, if the economy tanks and we fall into recession, that’s another story, but a slower growth economy helps keep easy money and low rates in play. Still, I believe today’s market is still bearing the burden of yesterday’s hint of inflation found in the CPI data. For as long as there are inflation concerns, stocks will be stymied. See my full report on inflation and the market here.

Market Sector Security	03-25-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-1.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-1.7%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.0%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-1.6%
PowerShares US Dollar Bear (NYSE: UDN)	+0.3%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+2.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Inflation Fear is Spooking Stocks

It was just a sniff, mind you, but it was of a foul odor. A whiff of inflation seen in the monthly Consumer Price Index data held back stocks Tuesday morning that I believe would have otherwise gained from the get-go. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) later resurfaced, as it was but a hint of bad news. However, it issues investors a warning of the possibility of a really poor scenario for stocks longer term. See my full report here.

Sector Security	03-24-15 Thru Noon
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)	+0.1%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)	-0.0%
Fidelity NASDAQ  ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)	+0.2%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)	-0.0%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)	-0.9%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+0.1%
WisdomTree US$  Bullish (NYSE: USDU)	+0.3%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)	+0.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

TODAY’S MARKET – A Bad Economic Report a Day Should Keep the Fed Away but Not When Inflation Lurks

They say an apple a day keeps the doctor away. Likewise, a bad economic report a day keeps the Fed away. At least that’s what investors are hoping will be the outcome of moderately soft economic reports like the Durable Goods Orders data reported Wednesday. However, today’s drift seems to be a continuation of concern spurred by the scent of inflation we picked up yesterday. Find all your economic report and EPS report coverage below, and our analysis of markets at our Wall Street blog.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Today’s Stock Market

Stocks are modestly lower today as investors seek direction. The economic data is confusing, as the Durable Goods Orders showed softness. However, moderately poor data is good for as long as it helps hold off the Fed; that’s how the market will see it. Mortgage activity picked up, offering more hope for housing. Greece is still in play, with a submission of its plans expected on Monday. After a five hour meeting between Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Tsipras, hope exists that some resolution might evolve that keeps Greece in the euro-zone. Global stability is in play.

Finally, I think what is really weighing on the market is the continued concern about yesterday’s hint of inflation seen in the Core CPI uptick. You’ll want to explore my discussion about that here. There’s a lot in play, and little reason to move anywhere today as a result. We could be stymied or even see downside direction until strategists come forward to argue against the inflation case. I expect that will happen eventually, as inflation is still moderate.

Security	03-25-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-1.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-1.7%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	+0.3%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+1.3%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)	-0.0%
PowerShares US $ Bear (NYSE: UDN)	-0.1%

Stocks are lower on inflation concern, while the dollar is also lower on the same catalyst. The dollar decline is pushing up oil despite a strong crude inventory build reported today. It is having the same effect on gold.

Economic Reports

ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expect	Actual
WEDNESDAY
Durable Goods Orders	+2.0%*	0.7%	-1.4%
-Ex-Transportation	-0.7%*	0.3%	-0.4%
Mortgage Activity	-3.9%		+9.5%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	9.6 MB		8.2 MB
-Gasoline Inventory	-4.5 MB
Evans Speaks

The economic report schedule was relatively light this morning but still carried quite a punch. Durable Goods Orders is a widely followed data point, but investors must understand that high-ticket prices for planes, trains and automobiles promote volatility in the headline data change month-to-month. For this reason, we look to the ex-transportation data. This month, ex-transportation, durable goods orders declined 0.4% against Wall Street expectations for a 0.3% increase. Also the prior month’s data was revised lower, so the report offers bad news about the economy. However, remember that bad news, as long as it is not too bad, serves stocks today because it helps keep the Fed away.

Mortgage Applications spiked for the reported period, up 9.5% against the prior week’s 3.9% decline. I’m looking for a pickup in housing, as I’ve discussed in recent articles. As the banks meet Fed critical standards and gain financial flexibility to return capital to shareholders, they also find more capital for lending. Look for lending standards to loosen and for the housing recovery to benefit.

Crude oil inventory saw yet another large build of supply, with 8.2 million barrels being added to inventory that is already well ahead of the seasonal average for the last 80 years. We’re at record levels in fact. I have a 2 part report in queue about the oil glut and how I believe the media has sensationalized a perceived risk and helped oil price decline. You’ll want to stay tuned to our blog for more on this.

EPS Reports

We are at the very tail end of the Q4 reporting period and about to enter the Q1 EPS season. As a result, the list of companies reporting earnings now is short. Still, I’ll be watching Five Below (Nasdaq: FIVE) today. It experienced holiday season softness and fell sharply into this report; the report itself should confirm that, but I’m a value seeker.

PVH (NYSE: PVH) is a housing company reporting today that you will want to keep an eye on for a bead on housing. Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) will garner market interest as well.

EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
WEDNESDAY
Affimed	Nasdaq: AFMD
Apollo Education	Nasdaq: APOL
China Mobile Games & Ent.	Nasdaq: CMGE
Dermira	Nasdaq: DERM
Destination XL Group	Nasdaq: DXLG
Five Below	Nasdaq: FIVE
Francesca’s Holdings	Nasdaq: FRAN
Iao Kun Group	Nasdaq: IKGH
Kingstone Companies	Nasdaq: KINS
Leidos Holdings	Nasdaq: LDOS
Lindsay	NYSE: LNN
LiqTech Int’l	Nasdaq: LIQT
Monogram Residential Trust	Nasdaq: MORE
On Track Innovations	Nasdaq: OTIV
Orient Paper	NYSE: ONP
Pacific Sunwear	Nasdaq: PSUN
Paychex	Nasdaq: PAYX
Progress Software	Nasdaq: PRGS
PVH Corp.	NYSE: PVH
Red Hat	NYSE: RHT
REX American Resources	NYSE: REX
USD Partners	Nasdaq: USDP
Vascular Biogenics	Nasdaq: VBLT
Verint Systems	Nasdaq: VRNT
Worthington Industries	NYSE: WOR
Yingli Green Energy	NYSE: YGE

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.