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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Fine Arts Column

fine arts column

Fine Arts Column



Wall Street Greek is pleased to provide our affluent readers with a new column covering fine arts topics for your entertainment and discovery. This column will not expand into the realm of fine art as alternative investment, but we will launch another column(s) for this purpose in the future. This complex thread of colorful content will bring our affluent readers more coverage of the topics that fill their evenings and weekends, and adorn their walls, studies and galleries. You can expect to find these entertaining works published on Friday afternoons or on the weekend.

This new section will cover all aspects of the fine arts, including but not limited to: painting, sculpture, antiquities, literature, and reviews of gallery openings, musical performances, theatre and film. Our Fine Arts Column will be open to cover all fine art forms and aspects of their study. Some of the topics the column may be expanded to could include installation, calligraphy, drawing, water color, graphics, lithography, printmaking, dance, ethnic art, architecture, and photography, to name a few.

We look forward to publishing works covering modern art of all sorts, including new branches of media art and even street art. We will cover fine art from all over the world, wherever creativity thrives and where we find it. Look for discussion of African works, the works of natives of North and South America, and the indigenous peoples throughout the world, including Inuit Art.

Our work will continue to derive from the columnists we have already introduced to you, and from new sources as well. You can still find the expert contributions of ancient art Scholar/Columnist, Collector & Dealer, Randall Hixenbaugh within our pages, and we hope to publish the contributions of other experts in antiquities and archaeology as well. We also look forward to publishing more works from our Original Art Print and Lithograph expert, Eric Travers, as well as the works of others in this field.

We are thrilled to have new writers on tap for you in the areas of literature, music, gallery openings and film. Short story writer Nicholas Zaharakos launches our efforts into literature, with a series of wonderful New York tales. We anticipate one or two poets may contribute soon as well.

We will continue to present our readers with an expanding list of important columnists covering interesting topics laid out by our clever editorial team. We expect to satisfy all aspects of your affluent interests. Your suggestions are always welcome as well.

Fine Arts Columnists:



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inuit art

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Business News Review 11-30-10

business news review
Economic Data Analysis

We covered the international market activity in an earlier article today, "Spanish Bond Spreads Widen, European Unemployment Grows, Indian GDP Thrives." The day's business news review covers the weekly same-store sales data for a very important shopping period; home price data; an economic barometer; and confidence measures of both consumers and investors.


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Nasdaq: HOLX, Nasdaq: GOOG, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: BIIB, Nasdaq: JDSU, Nasdaq: AVNR, Nasdaq: ROSG, Nasdaq: SEMG, NYSE: TSL, OTC: DGRLY.PK, NYSE: BKS, Nasdaq: BPHX, Nasdaq: CBAK, Nasdaq: CPRT, Nasdaq: FTLK, Nasdaq: IMKTA, Nasdaq: LTON, OTC: LUKOY.PK, NYSE: NBG, Nasdaq: OVTI, Nasdaq: PATR, Nasdaq: RADA, NYSE: THO, NYSE: UTI, NYSE: CS, NYSE: HPQ, Nasdaq: SNDK, Nasdaq: FSLR, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: AMAT, Nasdaq: DELL, NYSE: FCS, NYSE: PJC, NYSE: BAX, NYSE: STJ, Nasdaq: EXEL, NYSE: LH, Nasdaq: VITA, Nasdaq: QSII, Nasdaq: ZIOP, Nasdaq: ABMD, Nasdaq: CELG, Nasdaq: PPDI, Nasdaq: WMGI, Nasdaq: CPHD, NYSE: HSP, Nasdaq: ISIS, Nasdaq: NBIX, Nasdaq: ARTC, Nasdaq: INCY, Nasdaq: SLXP, NYSE: AIQ, Nasdaq: ALNY, Nasdaq: BMRN, Nasdaq: CRDC, NYSE: CVD, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: C, NYSE: BBT)

Business News Review



business writerThe day's business news review covers a busy economic report schedule, and one that was mostly positive. The problem was that the positives were not overwhelmingly so, and the negative was an important one. Home prices slid again in broad-based fashion, and our double-dip forecast of old was repeated on TV by S&P economist, David Blitzer, who said there would be a lot of "I told you so" and "double-dip" comments. It sounded to us as if it were meaningless (we suppose it's not to you). The fact is, it was not, and we led the investment community in forecasting the double-dip in housing. On the positive side, good readings on consumer and investor confidence were nice to see, but not reliable to invest on.

Weekly Same-Store Sales

Beware the weekly same-store sales data, which on first blush give the impression of a solid revival of the consumer. Remember that this year's measured period included the Saturday after Black Friday, whereas last year's period did not. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Saturday after Black Friday is significantly better for store traffic than the Saturday before it. Also, a great deal more Americans are likely seeking bargains this year, after draining their resources over the course of another bad year. Qualifiers provided, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported sales rose just 0.5% over the immediately prior week. Sales marked a 3.5% gain over the prior year period. Redbook noted year-over-year sales 4.9% higher than in 2009.

Cyber Monday was reportedly strong, based on the 15% increase in ecommerce reported by research firm, IBM Coremetrics. From Thursday through Saturday, sales increased 14% against the prior year.

I've two points to make: First, last year was an anomaly, an extremely poor year for all economic activity. In other words, the bar was set quite low. Secondly, this again might reflect a reluctant shopper, shopping at home perhaps due to depression brought on by missing deals and the usual shopping outing on Black Friday. I know someone who did not expect to shop, and yet bought something on Monday (did you?). It should also reflect an increased number of bargain seekers, for necessity's sake. Thus, I'm not too enthused to see this data, but we will take it just the same.

Consumer Confidence

It's a smooth transition into the consumer mood after covering sales activity. The Conference Board reported on the month of November today, noting an increase in the consumer mood. The Index gained a couple points, rising to a mark of 54.1, up from 49.9 in October. The same component that took this measure down in months past, gave it renewed life this time around; the Expectations Index recovered significantly, so hope never dies. November's result also beat economists' expectations for a reading of 52.0. We expect a change here if the government lets unemployment extensions die and revives the death tax at the same time. That said, the current level of confidence is not exactly euphoric either.

Investor Confidence

State Street (NYSE: STT) measures investor confidence monthly, and November offered signs of life. According to State Street, institutional investors were greater risk takers in the US and Europe this month, but Asian investors took a step back. The global confidence measure gained 9.3 points, while US confidence improved 12.2 points this month. Surprisingly, European investors had great appetite in November as well, but we have a feeling that is changing dynamically.

Home Prices

The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index was reported this morning for September. We heard Professor Case, an all around nice guy we don't dislike here, address an issue we've had with the report this morning on TV. He noted that the report is this late, covering September, because it is complete. There will be no revisions, nor future reporting of better September numbers. That's great, but why can't it be completed sooner, given the name on the report…

That said, this late data reflected what we've already seen in the Existing Home Sales data, and what Wall Street Greek forecast months ago. Home prices slid in September and seem to be suffering from an eroding false basis price point. The 10-City Index produced a 0.7% month-over-month price decline, and the US National Home Price Index gave back 2.0% in the third quarter. Prices are 1.5% below their year ago levels, according to the group.

18 of 20 MSAs covered by S&P noted price decrease in September, so the problem is broad-based and definite. The reporting group confirmed something we've been saying; in our words: without government stilts, housing has a significant handicap to overcome. It is weighed down by a heavy inventory of distressed properties, and given the underemployment rate, it's lacking energy to drive forward.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures area business activity, including both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing. This latest report covering the month of November showed improvement in the index, to 62.5, from 60.6 in October. A reading above 50 marks expansion, so we've got faster growth to report here. Analysts were not looking for quite this good a number either, where the consensus mark was set at 61.0. I view this data point as the most positive on the day, which is one that I only see modestly positive in aggregate.

Corporate Wire

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is facing an antitrust lawsuit by the EU, ala Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). The complaint waged argues the search giant favors its own sites and its customers' sites over those of rivals in paid and non-paid search rankings. Meanwhile, rumor has it that Google is going to acquire two year old internet phenom, Groupon, for, get this, $6 billion dollars. Not a bad turn around on a young startup. Groupon has proven an effective tool for small businesses and others to fill the room for openings and to create a buzz around a business. The acquisition capitalizes on local search interests Google has documented in its regular work.

Look for analysts' and shareholders' meetings at Hologic (Nasdaq: HOLX), Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), Biogen Idec (Nasdaq: BIIB) and JDSU (Nasdaq: JDSU). The day's EPS schedule highlights reports by Avanir Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AVNR), Rosetta Genomics (Nasdaq: ROSG), SemGroup (Nasdaq: SEMG), Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and DELEK (OTC: DGRLY.PK). The remainder of the schedule includes Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), BluePhoenix Solutions (Nasdaq: BPHX), China Bak Battery (Nasdaq: CBAK), Copart (Nasdaq: CPRT), Funtalk China (Nasdaq: FTLK), Ingles Markets (Nasdaq: IMKTA), Linktone (Nasdaq: LTON), Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY.PK), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Omnivision Technologies (Nasdaq: OVTI), Patriot Transportation (Nasdaq: PATR), Rada Electronic (Nasdaq: RADA), Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) and Universal Technical Institute (NYSE: UTI).

The Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) Annual Technology Conference highlights presentations by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK), First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE: FCS). The Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference (NYSE: PJC) hosts presentations by Baxter International (NYSE: BAX), St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ), Exelixis (Nasdaq: EXEL), Laboratory Corp. of America (NYSE: LH), Orthovita (Nasdaq: VITA), Quality Systems (Nasdaq: QSII), Ziopharm Oncology (Nasdaq: ZIOP), Abiomed (Nasdaq: ABMD), Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG), Pharmaceutical Product (Nasdaq: PPDI), Wright Medical (Nasdaq: WMGI), Cepheid (Nasdaq: CPHD), Hospira (NYSE: HSP), Isis (Nasdaq: ISIS), Neurocrine Biosciences (Nasdaq: NBIX), Arthrocare (Nasdaq: ARTC), Incyte (Nasdaq: INCY), Salix Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SLXP), Alliance Healthcare (NYSE: AIQ), Alnylam Pharma (Nasdaq: ALNY), BioMarin Pharma (Nasdaq: BMRN), Cardica (Nasdaq: CRDC) and Covance (NYSE: CVD). There are several other conferences in session today at JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Friedman Billings Ramsey, BB&T (NYSE: BBT), NYSSA, Canaccord Genuity, etc. This concludes today's business news review.

financial news forum message board chat

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Spanish Bond Spread Widens, European Unemployment Grows, Indian GDP Thrives

Spanish bond spreads widen, European unemployment, Indian GDP
International Markets

Today's international market news drove broad declines across Asian and European equity markets. In Asian, Indian GDP surged in the third quarter, but both India and China are tightening monetary policy in response to rising inflation. In Europe, the opposite is true. Austerity is choking economic growth and economies are failing. This morning, debt spreads widened significantly across Spain, Italy and Portugal on default concerns amidst a report of rising unemployment across Europe.


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Relative Tickers: NYSE: NBG, OTC: DXBGF.PK, OTC: CRZBY.PK, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: RBS, NYSE: ACA, NYSE: DB, NYSE: CS, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: STD, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: TMX, NYSE: CX, Nasdaq: XMZAX, Nasdaq: XVAZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Nasdaq: XNKRX, Nasdaq: XNXEX, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: XNAZX, NYSE: NAZ, Nasdaq: TASR, Nasdaq: AHSRX, Nasdaq: AHRAX, Nasdaq: EGCCX, Nasdaq: EGCYX, Nasdaq: EGSAX, Nasdaq: EGSBX, Nasdaq: NRAAX, Nasdaq: NRACX, Nasdaq: NBSLX, Nasdaq: NBSRX, Nasdaq: NRARX, Nasdaq: NBSTX, Nasdaq: VCSRX, NYSE: EWP, NYSE: SNF, Nasdaq: XSNFX, NYSE: EEA, Nasdaq: VEURX, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: EKH, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: RNE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX, Nasdaq: ASIA, Nasdaq: PRASX, NYSE: PUA, NYSE: NWD, Nasdaq: MEAFX, Nasdaq: EBASX, Nasdaq: EVASX, Nasdaq: SOLF, Nasdaq: CSUN, Nasdaq: BIDU)

Spanish Bond Spread Widens, European Unemployment Grows, Indian GDP Thrives



international analystEuropean Debt Sells Off

Investors sold off the government debt of Portugal, Italy and Spain Tuesday on fear that the thunder will roll from Greece, to Ireland and across Europe's trouble spots before preemptive austerity measures can have any impact. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds moved as high as 5.7%, 3.05 percentage points greater than the German 10-year. At this time last week, the difference only spanned about 2 percentage points. The Italian 10-year bond opened up a 2.1 percentage point spread, the most since the launch of the age of the euro. Portugal, the next in line to fail according to most pros, saw its bonds move in the same direction.

European Unemployment Record

Unemployment in Europe climbed to a 12-year high. Eurozone joblessness increased to 10.1%, with an extreme 20.7% rate measured in Spain. The next highest rates were seen in Slovakia (14.7%) and Ireland (14.1%). Italian unemployment moved up three-tenths of a point, to 8.6%, while French joblessness improved to 9.8%, from 9.9%. The German labor market also improved over this last month.

Dollar Gains on Foreign Troubles

With all the concerns about Europe, the dollar and yen drew capital, gaining on the euro Tuesday. The dollar is headed toward its first monthly rise against the yen since April, despite QE2. Given the disintegration of Europe and tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula, the dollar has gained about 0.3% on a Bloomberg compilation of the currencies of 10 developed nations. The yen is doing well also, as you might imagine, rising 12%, while the euro has shed 9.1% against the group in 2010. Today, more money is flowing into dollars and yen, but the Chinese yuan weakened against the yen on speculation it will tighten monetary policy to cool its economic growth.

Indian Growth Heats

India grew its GDP by 8.9% in Q3, exceeding analysts' expectations. Thus, India is expected to raise interest rates, like China, to tame growth. India's second quarter growth was revised higher as well, to 8.5%. Economists are attributing the growth to domestic drivers, favorable weather and foreign investment. Developing market expansion is acting as a nice counter-balance to western weakness, keeping the hemisphere's distress somewhat salvaged. The risk to India and China is runaway inflation, and so India has raised rates for the sixth time this year. CPI measured 11.6% at last check in India, mostly due to higher food prices.

International Market Movers:

Europe:

* ESTX 50: -1.0%
* FTSE 100: -0.4%
* CAC 40: -1.0%
* DAX: -0.4%
* IBEX 35: -0.9%

Asia:

* NIKKEI 225: -1.9%
* Hang Seng: -0.7%
* S&P ASX 200: -0.7%
* CSI 300: -1.7%
* KRX 100: +0.4%
* BSE Sensex 30: +0.6%

Relevant tickers include National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Dexia (OTC: DXBGF.PK), Commerzbank (OTC: CRZBY.PK), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Lloyds (NYSE: LYG), Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) and Credit Agricole (NYSE: ACA), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Allied Irish (NYSE: AIB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), NYSE: UNB, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), NYSE: RY, NYSE: BAP, NYSE: KEY, iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP), The Ibero-America Fund (NYSE: SNF), The Ibero-America Fund (Nasdaq: XSNFX), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX), Nasdaq: ASIA, Nasdaq: PRASX, NYSE: PUA, NYSE: NWD, Nasdaq: MEAFX, Nasdaq: EBASX, Nasdaq: EVASX, Nasdaq: MACSX, Nasdaq: MATFX, NYSE: CZJ, Nasdaq: CHINA, PCX: FXI, PCX: CYB, NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Nasdaq: AACFX, Nasdaq: GOPAX, Nasdaq: CHUSX, Nasdaq: GCHAX, Nasdaq: BUFCX, Nasdaq: DXHSX, Nasdaq: XHAOX, Nasdaq: NGCAX, Nasdaq: LNGZX, Nasdaq: DPCTX, Nasdaq: EICGX, Nasdaq: EPHCX, Nasdaq: FHKAX, Nasdaq: FHKCX, Nasdaq: IFCAX, Nasdaq: JCOAX, Nasdaq: XCAFX, Nasdaq: MCHFX, Nasdaq: NPCAX, Nasdaq: OBCAX, Nasdaq: UHPIX, Nasdaq: XGCHX, Nasdaq: TCWAX, Nasdaq: HPCHX, NYSE: ACH, Nasdaq: CHINA, Nasdaq: CBAK, Nasdaq: CSUN, NYSE: CHN, NYSE: GCH, Nasdaq: SOLF, Nasdaq: CAAS.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, November 29, 2010

New York Short Stories, by Zaharakos

New York Short Stories




Nicholas Zaharakos


Senior Storyteller







New York Short Stories


Nicholas Zaharakos, a short story writer, cooks up O'Henry-style New York tales, flavored with a unique ethnic spice. He tells a mix of original stories that address social issues, and poignant family tales with universal themes.


Nicholas considers himself, "as American as Spinach Pie." He was "Made in the USA." That is, he was born in Brooklyn, (Where else is there?). He was raised in a railroad flat with four brothers, two sisters, his mother's father and mother. There was always present an ever-changing menagerie of small animals.


Nicholas is a Vietnam Veteran. Upon his return he exchanged that experience for the single life in Manhattan. His first apartment was a walk-up directly across from the old Russian Tea Room on 57th Street. The apartment has since given way to luxury development. He is now enjoying marital bliss in Bedford Hills in Northern Westchester. Joann, his wife for life, is a theatre person. She has a beautiful singing and speaking voice. Barney and Molly, their two cats (really our two children), round out the family.


Nicholas believes that telling or writing a good story is his way of achieving a small amount of immortality. It is done in memory of those who have touched our lives. It is a way of sharing some wisdom that this junior/senior citizen has learned, rarely by the easy road. One can only hope it is a worthy legacy to pass on to the future generations.


Nicholas is an active participant in the New York Story Exchange (NYSE). Barbara Aliprantis has been the curator/host since its inception in 1997. Nicholas has been there for every step of this creative forum. Barbara has been an inspirational mentor to countless storytellers. The NYSE gathers the second Tuesday of the month at the Cornelia Street Cafe at 6:00 PM sharp.


"We are thrilled to be expanding our Fine Arts content with this wonderful creative column, produced by this heart-warming storyteller. Nicholas is also gifted with a golden tongue that serves to bring his wonderfully written stories to life, and so we encourage you to seek out his readings. With any luck, we hope we might bring them to you in that manner as well." Markos N. Kaminis


Mr. Zaharakos' Stories:



Full Disclosure: Nicholas has agreed to Wall Street Greek policy to avoid the authoring of articles about securities he personally owns or holds beneficial interest in. In the event of a special case, we expect Nicholas will make full disclosure of ownership or beneficial interest, which is his responsibility. The work of contributors to Wall Street Greek is their own, and may not necessarily agree with the opinion of the site or its founder, and does not constitute financial advice. Please see our full disclosure at Wall Street Greek.


(Relative Tickers: NYSE: MHP, NYSE: PSO, NYSE: JW-A, Nasdaq: SCHL, Nasdaq: CRRC, NYSE: NED, Nasdaq: PEDH, Nasdaq: AMZN, Nasdaq: EBAY, NYSE: BKS, NYSE: BID, Nasdaq: BAMM, NYSE: BGP, Nasdaq: HSNI, NYSE: RUK, NYSE: ENL, NYSE: MDP, Nasdaq: DEXO, NYSE: DM, NYSE: MSO, NYSE: PRM, Nasdaq: PRVT, Nasdaq: SPRO, NYSE: NYT, NYSE: WPO, NYSE: MNI, NYSE: SSP, NYSE: MEG, NYSE: LEE, NYSE: JRN, NYSE: GCI, Nasdaq: DJCO, NYSE: AHC, OTC: CGDA)


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WikiLeaks Info Should Impact Stocks

Wikileaks info impact stocks
WikiLeaks Global Reshuffle

If all were logical in the world, or at least made sense in our climate controlled American environment, stocks should absorb a significant shockwave Monday. The blast would emanate from a series of new WikiLeaks on hot topics centered around Iran and North Korea. Information has been released offering many troubling insights on these two points in the Axis of Evil.


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Tickers: NYSE: BCS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BAY, NYSE: BP, NYSE: BSY, NYSE: FXB, Nasdaq: DFUKX, NYSE: EWU, NYSE: ICE, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: SDS, Nasdaq: QQQQ, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: KF, NYSE: KEP, NYSE: KEF, Nasdaq: XKFDX, NYSE: EWY, NYSE: PKX, OTC: HYMTF.PK, NYSE: SHG, OTC: LGCEY.PK, OTC: LGERF.PK, NYSE: NOC, NYSE: RTN, NYSE: ATK, NYSE: LMT, NYSE: BA, NYSE: HON, NYSE: GD, NYSE: COL, NYSE: GR, NYSE: LLL, NYSE: SAI, Nasdaq: FLIR, NYSE: ERJ, NYSE: SPR, Nasdaq: BEAV, NYSE: TDG, NYSE: CAE, NYSE: HXL, NYSE: ESL, NYSE: TDY, NYSE: CW, NYSE: HEI, NYSE: TGI, NYSE: ORB, NYSE: AIR, Nasdaq: KAMN, Nasdaq: AVAV)

WikiLeaks Info Should Impact Stocks



geopolitical analystThe information made public in many cases was already generally known, and not just in the common subconscious, but in plain sight of the stock market for years. Yet, perhaps due to its duration overhanging global order, the potential Iranian event has become something we have grown too accustomed to. The documents show intense Middle Eastern pressure on both the Bush and Obama Administrations to wage war on Iran. Meanwhile, those same Islamic nations have held subdued stances publicly, even perhaps appearing to Iran as allies. As a result, depending on how Iran interprets the leaked information, world order looks to have been reshuffled overnight. Thus, Iran, Israel and the US start the new week with completely different perspectives and images, and that is a frightening consideration for investors to ponder.

WikiLeaks was smart in its distribution methodology, releasing to several select major media organizations, so as to prevent the knock-down of its website today. This information is public and going to stay that way, like it or not. So the US is now engaged in damage control, with some analysts calling the damage catastrophic. The US is concerned that its allies may temper future candor in their communications with US representatives now, given this lesson served.

The WikiLeaks information itself is vast, and so I cannot cover it completely, but I can cover some of the key points of impact to US diplomacy and Iranian perspective (see www.wikileaks.org for details). Europe is flustered this morning, given revealed American intelligence indicating a potential sharing of missile technology between North Korea and Iran, passed down from Russia initially. The info expands Iran's missile strike range to 2K miles, from 1,200. That puts Berlin within range with about half of Europe. Iran could already touch all of the Middle East.

Information has been released showing Israeli interest in aiding the Palestinian Authority to wage a war against Hamas for Gaza. There are also indications that Iran provided secret aid to Hezbollah in its war with Israel. Clearly, with all the cards turned up, the game has changed globally.

What Iran should find most troubling is the allegations that its Islamic neighbors have been some of the harshest critics of it behind the scenes. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has been aggressively lobbying the US to use its military might against Iran before long. Reportedly, Saudi Arabia is even engaged in the weaning of the Chinese off their dependence of Iranian oil, committing to provide a new source flow in exchange for China's support against Iran in the UN.

Now, given the changed Iranian lens of perspective of the situation, and the realization of this by Israel and the US and its allies, you might expect stocks to reflect a sort of wake-up call sounded in the investment community Monday. After all, war could now be days away originated by any party, given the bluff is up. However, in early trading through 2:00 AM ET, Asian shares did not reflect such concern, outside of South Korea. However, these markets often simply follow the lead of US shares. European stocks seem more likely to reflect a paradigm shift in geopolitical factors. American shares seem even more likely to do so, especially as the WikiLeaks information is sifted through and understood more perfectly.

Wikileaks forum message board chat

This article should interest investors in the shares of Barclay's (NYSE: BCS), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), British Airways (NYSE: BAY), BP (NYSE: BP), British Sky Broadcasting (NYSE: BSY), Currency Shares British Pound (NYSE: FXB), DFA United Kingdom Small Company Fund (Nasdaq: DFUKX), iShares MSCI UK (NYSE: EWU), NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: DB, NYSE: CS, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: STD, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: AIG, Korea Fund (NYSE: KF), Korea Electric Power (NYSE: KEP), Korea Equity Fund (NYSE: KEF), The Korea Fund (Nasdaq: XKFDX), iShares MSCI South Korea Index (NYSE: EWY), Samsung (Korea: 005930.KS), Posco (NYSE: PKX), Hyundai Motor (OTC: HYMTF.PK), Shinhan Financial (NYSE: SHG), Lg Chem (OTC: LGCEY.PK), LG Electronics (OTC: LGERF.PK), Hynix Semiconductor (Korea: 000660.KS), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Wikileaks geopolitical impact,world news videos

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Friday, November 26, 2010

Thankful for You

thankful for youLast evening, as I struggled to get some work done, exhaustion led me to look over videos that I had posted on the blog for Thanksgiving in years past. You will recall them, as they were touching; you can find them on the blog's front page again this year. The videos cover the plight of the homeless and the struggles of Abraham Lincoln, who first proclaimed Thanksgiving a national holiday during the Civil War.

I issued the videos to share with you a reminder for all of us: that no matter what difficulties we have faced, if you are reading the blog, then most likely you see that things could be even worse. Therefore, we have something to be thankful for. Yet, even for the homeless, and I'll go so far as to say for the terminally ill, or some of them, things could be far worse. In this case, I opine that it is only without God that men are bankrupt and hopeless. These videos thus served to remind me of the truth of life.

The struggles of the recession have not neglected me nor our independent effort at the blog. It was only through extreme and unfathomable personal sacrifice that our scribbling was allowed to continue through 2009, a challenging year within a difficult period. At the same time, we have through blood, sweat and tears broadened our reach, and made inroads in an environment that still places stigma on blogs, even expertly authored ones, and favors the established popular press. Thus, we see all around us, large media organizations creating "blogs" of their own; but how independent are they really, and what freedom do their words carry, considering their source? Thus, for the true independent, there is an important schism that will always separate us from the rest, and keep our opinions sought after by Americans and all the "small people," to quote one little big man.

Because you need unbiased views, I will provide them. While many temptations for profits exist, I will overcome them. However, we require your support to make this possible, in all ways you can fathom. You guarantee our survival and our independence. Please be our advocates and sponsors, if you want to preserve true independence in media.

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And so, on Thanksgiving, I am reminded of whom I owe thanks, because the current age is considerably brighter than the last. First, I owe thanks to the Lord, to which I point now, because I am certain that no man's success or survival occurs without His allowance. I only hope I retain his blessing as well.

I want to thank you loyal readers for bearing through the days when my mind may not have been as clear as you have grown accustomed. Thank you for sticking with us, even when on occasion we were wrong. Thank you for recommending us on those days when you benefited from our insights. Thank you for accepting me and all of us at Wall Street Greek into your trust.

I thank also my sponsors, the friends and advertisers who have taken a leap of faith. They are pioneers of a sort. With regard to our advertisers, they have benefited greatly, without a doubt. If you disbelieve in this, fifteen minutes is all I need to clear that uncertainty up for you to see. Still, the greatest return they will not know until they need it. You see, I value trust, when it is given to me. I see it as a blessing, because the world is a selfish untrusting place, and so it is a rare commodity of great value. For me, true friendship only exists when in the company of trust, and so when it's given to me I recognize its worth. I also adore compassion, which is even harder to find in this world. I have found it in unexpected locations, and discovered its absence in places where I was certain it existed. Nothing is sweeter than compassion.

And so, I say thank you dear readers. I am so thankful for you and everyone who has made this initiative possible and who have enabled its survival and success. Yet, the journey has only just begun. Be assured that what I am doing is not for me, but for you and for those who will benefit from any financial return that may, by grace, arrive. After my witness of negligence and selfishness on Wall Street and in humankind generally, both in my personal career and through the drama of the financial crisis, I would not be putting my long sought and earned toolbox to use otherwise. Count on that. God bless, and thank you.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Tickers: NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ.

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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Lentil Soup Recipe

Greek lentil soup recipe
Lentil Soup for Thanksgiving

Are you kidding me Pinelopi? Lentil soup, really? You must think I'm insane, but each of us is serving a stubborn guest or two on Thanksgiving who refuses to eat meat. There are various reasons why folks will not conform to the traditional and tasty turkey dinner, and I say, to each his own! So today I'm offering you my Greek Lentil Soup Recipe to save you from disgrace. Kali Orexi!


(Tickers: NYSE: SLE, NYSE: SFD, NYSE: TSN, NYSE: HRL, NYSE: UN, NYSE: UL, NYSE: GIS, NYSE: K, NYSE: CPB, NYSE: CAG, NYSE: MJN, NYSE: SJM, NYSE: MKC, Nasdaq: GMCR, NYSE: RAH, NYSE: DLM, NYSE: CPO, NYSE: FLO, NYSE: THS, Nasdaq: HAIN, NYSE: GMK, Nasdaq: AIPC, Nasdaq: DMND, Nasdaq: JJSF, Nasdaq: LNCE, Nasdaq: PEET, NYSE: BGS, Nasdaq: SMBL, Nasdaq: FARM, Nasdaq: JBSS, Nasdaq: CMFO, Nasdaq: MGPI, Nasdaq: CNGL, NYSE: OFI, NYSE: ALN, NYSE: OME, Nasdaq: KTEC, Nasdaq: TSTY, Nasdaq: SNAK, Nasdaq: GLDC, NYSE: KR, NYSE: CBD, NYSE: SWY, NYSE: DEG, Nasdaq: WFMI, NYSE: SVU, Nasdaq: CASY, NYSE: RDK, NYSE: WMK, Nasdaq: WINN, NYSE: BSI, Nasdaq: VLGEA, Nasdaq: IMKTA, Nasdaq: PTRY, Nasdaq: ARDNA, Nasdaq: SUSS, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: QKLS, NYSE: TGT, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: BJ, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: DAC, Nasdaq: CLMS, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NMM, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: GMR, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV)

Greek Lentil Soup Recipe



Greek recipesVegetarians, pious people and stubborn relatives who just want to be a pain in your rear are some of the types you'll find at your Thanksgiving table this year. Believe it or not, many Orthodox Christians are fasting now for Christmas, and have celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday with a turkey feast weeks ago. They will need something to eat today. Our Greek lentil soup recipe is so good though that it might even have the meat lovers at your table asking for a bowl.

A Little on Lentils

Beans are harvested in their natural state. Thus, even with the most careful attention and the best processing equipment available, we still must screen through the lentils closely to pick out any foreign substances such as stones, soil particles etc. Rinse the lentils with water several times before proceeding to cook them please.

Start Cooking

Boil enough water to cover the lentils before adding them to the pot. Then take the pot off the stove, and add the lentils to soak, while covering the lid for 15 minutes. Trust me, this speeds the cooking time and makes for a more fluid process. Strain the lentils and replace the initial water with 8 cups of new water for cooking. This will make up your soup. As you cook the lentils, take a spoon and skim off the top of the pot, as this will catch any remaining unsavories.

Sauté the carrots, celery and onions in one-half cup of olive oil. Sauté until the onions are translucent and carrots and celery are half-cooked. They'll cook the rest of the way later on. Then add bay leaves, minced garlic, tomato paste, salt and pepper (ingredients listed below). After a short bit (don't burn the garlic), add the mixture to the pot of lentils just as they come to a boil in their 8 cups of soup water. You can add more hot water if the soup seems to thicken too much. You can cook it to the thickness of your liking, but don't make mush please and ruin my good name in the process. Add salt and pepper to taste!

The Secret Ingredient

When serving the soup, drop a splash of vinegar to the individual bowls. A teaspoon to a tablespoon should do the trick. Sometimes I simply use the cap of the vinegar bottle as a metric. This enhances the flavor of the soup, and you control how much influence the vinegar has to your liking.

Lentil Soup Ingredients:

1 Pound Lentils
1 Medium Onion Minced
2 Stalks Celery
2 Carrots
2 Tablespoons Tomato Paste
½ Cup Olive Oil
2 Cloves Garlic Minced
2 Bay Leaves (Remove after soup cooked)
8 Cups of Water (Add More if Thickens Too Much)

Enjoy my Greek Lentil Soup Recipe and Kali Orexi!

cooking answers

Remember, we are accepting readers' Greek cooking recipes, so please feel free to send us your family's favorite. Simply email your recipe, two photos of the dish, a photo of the chef and a brief write up about the recipe, the cook and/or the person who taught you the wonderful dish to recipes @wallstreetgreek.com.

Relevant tickers include Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), Brasil Foods SA (Nasdaq: BRFS), Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), Hormel (NYSE: HRL), Seaboard (NYSE: SEB), Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), Sanderson Farms (Nasdaq: SAFM), Industrias Bachoco (NYSE: IBA), Balchem (Nasdaq: BCPC), Zhongpin (Nasdaq: HOGS), Bridgford Foods (Nasdaq: BRID), Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE), Pepsico (NYSE: PEP), Unilever NV (NYSE: UN), Unilever plc (NYSE: UL), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Kellogg (NYSE: K), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG), Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE: MJN), J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM), McCormick (NYSE: MKC), Green Mountain Coffee (Nasdaq: GMCR), Ralcorp (NYSE: RAH), Del Monte (NYSE: DLM), Corn Products (NYSE: CPO), Flowers Foods (NYSE: FLO), Treehouse Foods (NYSE: THS), Gruma S.A.B. (NYSE: GMK), American Italian Pasta (Nasdaq: AIPC), Diamond Foods (Nasdaq: DMND), J&J Snack Foods (Nasdaq: JJSF), Lance (Nasdaq: LNCE), B&G Foods (NYSE: BGS), Seneca Foods (Nasdaq: SENEB), Smart Balance (Nasdaq: SMBL), Farmer Brothers (Nasdaq: FARM), John B. Sanfilippo (Nasdaq: JBSS), China Marine Food (Nasdaq: CMFO), MGP Ingredients (Nasdaq: MGPI), China Nutrition (Nasdaq: CNGL), Overhill Farms (AMEX: OFI), Omega Protein (NYSE: OME), Key Technology (Nasdaq: KTEC), Tasty Baking (Nasdaq: TSTY), Inventure Foods (Nasdaq: SNAK), Golden Enterprises (Nasdaq: GLDC), Kroger (NYSE: KR), Companhia Brasileiria (NYSE: CBD), Safeway (NYSE: SWY), Delhaize (NYSE: DEG), Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFMI), SuperValu (NYSE: SVU), Casey's General Stores (Nasdaq: CASY), Ruddick (NYSE: RDK), Weis Markets (NYSE: WMK), Winn-Dixie (Nasdaq: WINN), Blue Square Israel (NYSE: BSI), Ingles Markets (Nasdaq: IMKTA), Village Super Market (Nasdaq: VLGEA), Pantry (Nasdaq: PTRY), Arden (Nasdaq: ARDNA), Susser (Nasdaq: SUSS), QKL Stores (Nasdaq: QKLS), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), BJ Wholesale (NYSE: BJ), Coca-Cola Hellenic (NYSE: CCH), OTE Telecom (NYSE: OTE), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Darden (NYSE: DRI), Brinker (NYSE: EAT), Dryships (Nasdaq: DRYS), Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM), Navios Holdings (NYSE: NM), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Jobless Claims Inspire Stocks

jobless claims inspire stocks
Better Than Turkey!

Wall Street Greek readers today enjoyed the punch line of an inside joke we've shared amongst ourselves. A couple months back, we scribbled on these ethereal pages that a nice new catalyst for stocks would be weekly jobless claims nearing 400K or falling under that mark. Today's Labor Department report noted claims at 407K, and stocks rallied sharply (Dow +1.4%), recovering from a bad outing Tuesday.


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ)

Jobless Claims Inspire Stocks



business columnistWhen Jobless Claims dropped under 450K over recent weeks, we noted the market's special enthusiasm expressed through stock buying activity. The action was right in line with our own expectations and calls for a bullish catalyst near the 400K level.

Having witnessed the stale state of labor affairs over the last year, we came to understand that investors were coming to grips with a new reality. Folks were learning to live with a lumbering economy, and they were not buying stocks anymore.

Heading into the November elections, and once it became clear in late August that the Tea Party Republicans were going to bring back balance to Congress and leave tax breaks in place, stocks trended higher. But since the elections, the market has lacked reason to rise. QE2 was supposed to provide a new catalyst, but equalizing currency drivers in Europe (Ireland) and Asia (Korea) sort of offset hopes for export opportunities. The race to the bottom for fiat currency has begun, but that is another tragedy we will discuss later. I realize there are still other benefits to reap from quantitative easing, but I just find the Fed's arsenal weak and see QE2 as the wrong gear for the war we are waging (look for our pending article on this as well).

What Had Happened...

For the week ended November 20, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims tallied 407K, down 34K from the prior week's revised count of 441K. Many states commented that a shorter workweek may have aided the count, but Veterans' Day fell on November 11, which is outside of the measured period. The only other holiday was the Islamic Eid al-Adha, which is known to Christians and Jews as the day Abraham trusted in God and was willing to sacrifice his son Isaac. The Muslim Hajj also began during the week, and perhaps played some role.

So are Muslims such an important minority in the US now that Islamic holidays influence economic data? There is no accurate count of the number of Muslims in America, but it is estimated by reputable sources to be between 5 to 7 million (by US News & World Report and the Council on American-Islamic Relations).

That said, the recent data trail has offered us enough insight to determine that the cut in jobless claims has more to do with decreasing layoff activity than seasonal factors. After all, the four-week moving average declined another 7,500 in this latest period, to 436K.

The insured unemployment rate declined again, by another tenth of a point, to 3.3% in the November 13 period. 142,000 people fell out of the insured unemployed pool, leaving 4.182 million through November 13. The four-week moving average also fell here, to 4.309 million. The news is indisputably good, and so stocks had solid basis to react to it Wednesday. Continued improvement in this labor data point, should it occur, should prove a lasting catalyst for stocks as well. Perhaps we really do have something to be thankful for this Thanksgiving after all.

FYI

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, during the week ending Nov. 6.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Nov. 6 were in Puerto Rico (5.8 percent), Alaska (5.7), Oregon (4.3), Pennsylvania (4.0), California (3.9), Nevada (3.9), New Jersey (3.9), Arkansas (3.6), Connecticut (3.6), South Carolina (3.5), and Wisconsin (3.5).

unemployment forum message board chat

Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). The day’s earnings included Deere (NYSE: DE), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), China Cord Blood (NYSE: CO) and Frontline (NYSE: FRO).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

GDP Revised Higher for Third Quarter (Q3) 2010

GDP revision third quarter Q3
But Enthusiasm Tempered

Third quarter GDP got a hot revision higher today, up to 2.5%, from 2.0% when initially reported. The spurt beat economists' expectations too, which were set at 2.4%.


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Relevant Tickers: NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: SERCX, Nasdaq: SERNX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FEEEX, Nasdaq: FAEAX, Nasdaq: FBEAX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: FECAX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: XRNEX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: UEPSX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX, NYSE: CEE, NYSE: RNE, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, Nasdaq: ANEFX, Nasdaq: CNGAX, Nasdaq: HNEAX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: AIG, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: DB, NYSE: CS, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: FNM, NYSE: FRE, NYSE: MCG, NYSE: MCO, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: STD, AMEX: GLE, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: GLD, NYSE: XLE, NYSE: XLF, NYSE: BJV, NYSE: SZI, NYSE: BPD, NYSE: IEL, NYSE: PBN, NYSE: CGW, NYSE: LVL, NYSE: FRI, NYSE: PBP, NYSE: RSU, NYSE: RMM, NYSE: REA, NYSE: RFL, NYSE: RHM, NYSE: RTG, NYSE: RSW, NYSE: RMS, NYSE: REC, Nasdaq: PDOWX, Nasdaq: XDPOX, Nasdaq: XDPDX, Nasdaq: NDUAX, Nasdaq: NDUBX, Nasdaq: IDJAX, Nasdaq: NJCRX, Nasdaq: UDPIX, Nasdaq: UDPSX, Nasdaq: UWPIX, Nasdaq: RYLDX, Nasdaq: RYIDX, Nasdaq: RYCWX, Nasdaq: ONEQ, Nasdaq: QCLN, Nasdaq: QQEW, Nasdaq: QQXT, Nasdaq: QTEC, Nasdaq: NASDX, Nasdaq: NDXKX, Nasdaq: POTCX, Nasdaq: DXQSX, Nasdaq: DXQLX, Nasdaq: FNCMX, Nasdaq: INQAX, Nasdaq: MOTAX, Nasdaq: XQQQX)

GDP Revised Higher for Third Quarter (Q3)



Wall street economistAs expected by economists and reported here in our weekly copy published Monday, one driver of GDP adjustment higher was an upward revision to exports. However, running counter to economists' views, these gains were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.

The export gains should continue, aided by the Fed's quantitative easing affect on the dollar, at least for as long as that holds. European comments by the likes of Angela Merkel, calling into question the future of the euro recently, have helped to balance currency in favor of Europe's international traders. Meanwhile, uncertainty in a rich neighborhood in Asia, threatening South Korea, and kindling too near to Japan and China, also had the dollar gaining ground Tuesday.

Looking again at the factors involved in the +0.5% adjustment to GDP, the downward revision to private inventory investment is reflective of the end of inventory restocking and a stalling American marketplace. For as long as the US economy bears the weight of close to 10% unemployment and high-teen underemployment, you can expect that situation to hold true.

What economists had not expected nor mentioned as far as we could tell, was the upward adjustments to personal consumption expenditures and state and local government spending that were seen in today's data, which helped to lift GDP growth. The price factor within PCE was unchanged, and so it was the volume of spending that was shifted higher. That's good news, but its reliability moving forward is called into question given waning consumer sentiment.

Meanwhile, strengthened state and local government spending seems improbable, and incapable of being sustained in the tax-light environment that exists today. Federal government stimulus helped in the past, but we are not sure we can expect more of that with more fiscally conscious Congressmen making the calls in DC.

Also, business investment was a key driver of third quarter growth, and that seems set to stall on more recent trouble in housing, employment, and consumer sentiment and spending.

In conclusion, we do not feel completely comfortable with the message this GDP reports seems to transmit, given the mixed data reaching the wire over the past few weeks. An environment of soft American demand for goods and services seems more realistic moving forward given housing values slipping further and the pace of home sales staggered; with stocks reconsidering valuation post the pre-election driven gains; under intensified geopolitical stresses; and while still bearing the weight of heavy unemployment. Quantitative easing has been the government's ace card in its sleeve, but today's FOMC meeting minutes release revealed a somewhat split group of decision makers. Thus, the GDP revision was well-muted by the tandem of Korean conflict and Fed fighting.

Q3 GDP forum message board chat

Article should interest investors in: NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: SERCX, Nasdaq: SERNX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FEEEX, Nasdaq: FAEAX, Nasdaq: FBEAX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: FECAX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: XRNEX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: UEPSX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX, NYSE: CEE, NYSE: RNE, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, Nasdaq: ANEFX, Nasdaq: CNGAX, Nasdaq: HNEAX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: AIG, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: DB, NYSE: CS, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: FNM, NYSE: FRE, NYSE: MCG, NYSE: MCO, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: STD, AMEX: GLE, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: GLD, NYSE: XLE, NYSE: XLF, NYSE: BJV, NYSE: SZI, NYSE: BPD, NYSE: IEL, NYSE: PBN, NYSE: CGW, NYSE: LVL, NYSE: FRI, NYSE: PBP, NYSE: RSU, NYSE: RMM, NYSE: REA, NYSE: RFL, NYSE: RHM, NYSE: RTG, NYSE: RSW, NYSE: RMS, NYSE: REC, Nasdaq: PDOWX, Nasdaq: XDPOX, Nasdaq: XDPDX, Nasdaq: NDUAX, Nasdaq: NDUBX, Nasdaq: IDJAX, Nasdaq: NJCRX, Nasdaq: UDPIX, Nasdaq: UDPSX, Nasdaq: UWPIX, Nasdaq: RYLDX, Nasdaq: RYIDX, Nasdaq: RYCWX, Nasdaq: ONEQ, Nasdaq: QCLN, Nasdaq: QQEW, Nasdaq: QQXT, Nasdaq: QTEC, Nasdaq: NASDX, Nasdaq: NDXKX, Nasdaq: POTCX, Nasdaq: DXQSX, Nasdaq: DXQLX, Nasdaq: FNCMX, Nasdaq: INQAX, Nasdaq: MOTAX, Nasdaq: XQQQX.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Korean Border Clash

Korean border clash
On High Alert

North and South Korea exchanged fire this morning on their disputed Yellow Sea border. As tensions remain high on mutual threats of escalation, Wall Street Greek Global Affairs Columnist Daniel Padovano offers our readers his critical insights.


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Korean Border Clash



Korea AnalystSouth Korea reported that North Korean artillery attacks began at 2:30 PN local time. The border clash occurred on Yeonpyeong Island located about 80km west of the port of Inchon. Early reports indicate that over 200 artillery shells have landed on the island, killing two South Korean marines and wounding about 20 more people.

The attack comes in the middle of a nine-day military exercise involving all branches of South Korea's military and the United States. North Korea has issued notices to South Korea to halt this aggressive posturing. (North Korean requests like this precede most South Korean military exercises). In this instance, North Korea claims that this exercise is designed to mask an attack against the North's nuclear facilities.

Today's artillery attack has escalated quickly. South Korea's Joint Chiefs are in session and earlier today, the South Korean air force was scrambled. South Korea's military remains at its highest alert level. The main concern is North Korea's artillery batteries surrounding Seoul, just 50km away.

As of yet, fighting has not spread, although North Korea claims that it will continue attacks.

Yeonpyeong Island has about 1,300 residents. Most of the residents are South Korean military personnel. Civilians residents are largely fishermen. The island is part of a chain of islands off both Korea's western coasts. The islands are in the disputed border area between the Northern Limit Line (DMZ). Previous incidents on or near Yeonpyeong include a 1999 incident resulting in the deaths of 6 North Korean soldiers. In March 2010, the South Korean warship Cheonan was sunk by an alleged North Korean torpedo. 46 South Korean sailors died in that attack.

The current spate of attacks come on the heels of the South Korean admission that the "Sunshine Policy" aimed at reuniting the two countries has failed, increasing tension over North Korea's expanding nuclear program and the elevation of Kim Jong Un (the son of Kim Jon Il) to high rank. King Jong Un is rumored to be Kim Jong Il's successor.

North Korea may be striking out to remind the South, China, the U.S. and Russia that it is not to be trifled with or ignored. North Korea may feel itself vulnerable, as it faces increasing pressure from the international community regarding its nuclear program and possible domestic famine.

North Korea forum message board chat

Article Interests: Korea Fund (NYSE: KF), Korea Electric Power (NYSE: KEP), Korea Equity Fund (NYSE: KEF), The Korea Fund (Nasdaq: XKFDX), iShares MSCI South Korea Index (NYSE: EWY), Samsung (Korea: 005930.KS), Posco (NYSE: PKX), Hyundai Motor (OTC: HYMTF.PK), Shinhan Financial (NYSE: SHG), Lg Chem (OTC: LGCEY.PK), LG Electronics (OTC: LGERF.PK), Hynix Semiconductor (Korea: 000660.KS), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

North Korean geopolitics

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Monday, November 22, 2010

Thanksgiving Week Ahead

Thanksgiving week ahead
Economic Calendar

This holiday shortened Thanksgiving week offers a busy economic schedule nonetheless. Important housing sales and price data will be reported, along with the latest measures of consumer sentiment, personal spending and durable goods orders. We'll also receive the first revision of third quarter GDP and several important earnings releases. Gobble, gobble... don't choke on it!


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Thanksgiving Week Ahead



Monday

Two lightly followed economic reports sit on the slate for Monday morning release. Look for the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and CoreLogic's real estate shadow inventory data.

The Chicago Fed publishes its National Activity Index for the month of October at 8:30 a.m. ET. The metric captures the economy's cyclical position. September's report showed a decrease in the index to negative -0.58 in October, down from -0.49 in August. Measures below zero simply depict economic growth below historic trend; of course this could also include economic contraction. According to the Chicago Fed, the deterioration came on production-related indicators, which is consistent with other indicators of manufacturing through the period. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved slightly from August, but only the sales, orders, and inventories category made a positive contribution to the index in September.

CoreLogic publishes its shadow inventory data for August today, showing lender owned property, and also including deeply delinquent property and real estate in foreclosure. Shadow inventory is left out of other inventory metrics, as it sits unavailable for purchase in the short-term.

In interesting sequence, following the NATO meeting in Lisbon, and on announced European interests in a missile defense system, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev delivers his state of the nation address. This sounds like must-see TV for geopolitical junkies.

The corporate wire offers Arch Chemicals' (NYSE: ARJ) analyst meeting in New York. Massey Energy's (NYSE: MEE) board begins a three-day meeting which could lead to a decision to make the company available for acquisition.

The day's earnings schedule highlights reports from Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), China Mass Media (NYSE: CMM), Dole Food (Nasdaq: DOLE), Dycom (NYSE: DY), AutoChina International (Nasdaq: AUTC), China Crescent (Nasdaq: CCTR), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), eFuture Info Tech (Nasdaq: EFUT), Eltek (Nasdaq: ELTK), Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN), G. Willi Food (Nasdaq: WILC), Gladstone Capital (Nasdaq: GLAD), Ituran Location & Control (Nasdaq: ITRN), Jack in the Box (Nasdaq: JACK), Kit Digital (Nasdaq: KITD), KongZhong (Nasdaq: KONG), Kronos Worldwide (NYSE: KRO), Lattice (Nasdaq: LTTC), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Mayflower Cooperative Bank (Nasdaq: MFLR), Northern Technologies (Nasdaq: NTIC), Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN), OTIX Global (Nasdaq: OTIX), Pacific Sunwear of California (Nasdaq: PSUN), Raptor Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: RPTP), Raven Industries (Nasdaq: RAVN), Tech Data (Nasdaq: TECD), Tier Technologies (Nasdaq: TIER), Valspar (NYSE: VAL).

Tuesday

The first revision to third quarter GDP leads Tuesday morning's wire. When initially reported, Q3 GDP marked 2.0% growth. After further clarified quarterly data, economists now expect the rate of expansion to be revised up a notch to 2.4%, based on Bloomberg's tally of economists. The factors behind the change are likely to be greater inventory build and a reduced negative trade impact. The final tally for the second quarter recorded 1.7% GDP growth. Look for the Q3 data at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Less important than next week's report, this week's ICSC Same-Store Sales Report will measure the period ended November 20. Last week's report showed November 13 period sales slipped 0.1% against the immediate prior period. However, compared to the prior year count, sales measured 3.4% higher. Redbook reported year-over-year sales increased 2.7%.

Next week's report will count Black Friday's sales. Since Thanksgiving was celebrated on the 26th of November last year, the year-over-year comparison will bear some relevance. However, this year's period will benefit from its inclusion of the Saturday after Thanksgiving (counted in the following week for the prior year data), and so sales growth should look especially good this year, as far as ICSC and Redbook report. You will want to look at the full month to get a more perfect measure.

Existing Home Sales for the month of October are due for report at 10:00 AM. In agreement with recent housing data, economists expect sales of preowned homes to have remain depressed in October. The consensus forecast sees an annual rate of sales of 4.5 million, about even with September’s pace. Existing home inventory was measured at 10.7 months supply, based on the most recent sales pace.

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases the meeting minutes for its gathering that led to the introduction of "QE2." The media will swarm over any sign of dissent within the minutes, while also focusing on member concerns about the economy. The FOMC release is due at 2:00 PM ET.

Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner will appear before the Financial Stability Oversight Council Tuesday for a little must-see TV. We expect Geithner will get a question or two about his broken promise to provide the Treasury's international trade report on time in October (still overdue). Speak of the devil, the China International Nuclear Symposium kicks off in Beijing Tuesday.

FDIC Chair Sheila Bair will get an audience Tuesday as well, as she discusses third quarter bank and thrift industry earnings and the situation.

The corporate wire highlights Dynegy's (NYSE: DYN) vote on Blackstone's (NYSE: BX) proposed takeover bid. Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JEC) and Sun Life Financial (NYSE: SLF) host analysts' meetings Tuesday. The earnings schedule highlights news from Acorn International (NYSE: ATV), Brown Shoe (NYSE: BWS), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), Medtronic (NYSE: MDT), Patterson Dental (Nasdaq: PDCO), Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL), China TechFaith Wireless (Nasdaq: CNTF), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Cavico (Nasdaq: CAVO), Cracker Barrel (Nasdaq: CBRL), Daktronics (Nasdaq: DAKT), dELiA's (Nasdaq: DLIA), Eaton Vance (NYSE: EV), Fred’s (Nasdaq: FRED), Genesco (NYSE: GCO), Guess (NYSE: GES), Hillenbrand (NYSE: HI), Israel Chemicals (Nasdaq: ISCHY.PK), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), LTX-Credence (Nasdaq: LTXC), Medcath (Nasdaq: MDTH), New Jersey Resources (NYSE: NJR), Newmarket Technology (Nasdaq: IPVO), QAD (Nasdaq: QADI), Shamir Optical (Nasdaq: SHMR), ShangPharma (NYSE: SHP), Ship Finance International (NYSE: SFL), Signet Jewelers (NYSE: SIG), Chemical & Mining of Chile (NYSE: SQM), TIVO (Nasdaq: TIVO), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Verigy (Nasdaq: VRGY), WSP Holdings (NYSE: WH), Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC).

Wednesday

The busiest travel day of the year offers perhaps the busiest economic news day of the year as well. With the holiday cooking, and given the soft work day Friday, a slew of data have been squeezed into Wednesday's schedule.

The premarket slate includes four reports, including key data on durable goods orders, personal spending activity and unemployment claims.

Last week's jobless claims continued a recent trend of moderation. Weekly Claims for the week ended November 20 measured 439K; it marked a 2K increase, but recent activity below 450K is of positive note. The four-week moving average fell 4K, to 443K last week, which is more important than the weekly count. Further moderation is likely, and would be noticeably welcomed by the market. The economists' consensus here is near meaningless, as the report is too frequent to stray far from the prior week period, and also otherwise tough to measure precisely. That said, Bloomberg lists the economists' consensus at 435K this week.

Durable Goods Orders can sway wildly and light fires on Wall Street as a result. However, the big swings are understood and expected by economists, since these are high-ticket items being measured. Orders rebounded 3.5% in September, after recording a 0.8% drop in August. Because the data includes aircraft, economists also remove transportation to get a clearer understanding of durable goods generally. Aircraft played a big role in the swing for September, and the orders data excluding transportation actually fell 0.4%, after increasing 2.1% in August. Economists forecast orders slipped 0.1% in October, but you can expect the reported result to miss significantly in either direction.

Personal Income & Spending data reaches the wire at 8:30 a.m. Most will be interested in the spending portion of this report, and economists forecast personal consumption will have risen 0.5% for October, which compares against the 0.2% increase in September. Personal income is expected to have increased 0.4%, against the -0.1% decline in September. Core PCE, the Fed's most favored inflation gauge, is found in this report. PCE inflation rose 0.1%, but Core PCE was unchanged in September.

The final premarket report is covered by the regular mortgage activity data, provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Last week's report covering the period ended November 12, was impacted by Veterans' Day and a sharp spike in mortgage rates. The Market Composite Index declined 14.4% as a result. The Purchase Index, which measures mortgage acquisition on home purchases, fell 5%. The Refinance Index dropped by 16.5%, on the sharp spike in mortgage rates. Contracted rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages jumped to 4.46%, from 4.28%, on positive economic data and uncertainty around the effects and duration of QE2 under apparent/assumed improving economic conditions (based on data flow last week).

Three more reports reach the wire around 10:00 AM, including consumer sentiment, new home sales and home prices. The Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for late-November reaches wire at 9:55 AM. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see sentiment edging higher to 69.5, up from 69.3 at the middle of the month.

New Home Sales data for the month of October are due at 10:00 AM. Like the rest of the housing industry metrics, New Home Sales are expected to have continued at a slow rate in October. The annual pace of sales is seen at 314K, which marks a slight increase from the 307K annual pace set in September. At that sales pace, the inventory of new homes stood at 8 months supply.

Keeping with real estate, the FHFA House Price Index is up for release at 10:00 a.m. as well. The last report showed a 0.4% increase, but we prefer to use the housing price data offered by the Existing Home Sales Report. In this area, we are seeing price decline rather clearly. The NAR report showed the median existing home price down about 2.4% from the year ago period in September.

The EIA will report on both Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Inventory Wednesday. First up will be the oil data at 10:30. Last week's report covering the period ended November 12, showed crude oil inventory dropped by 7.3 million barrels as refineries ramp up distillate fuel production. Oil inventory is still above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline stores decreased by 2.7 million barrels, and sit in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventory decreased by 1.1 million barrels, but stores remain above the upper boundary of the average range. Natural gas inventory will be reported at 12 PM. Last week's data showed a 3 Bcf increase in inventory, taking stocks to 13 Bcf higher than last year and 327 Bcf above the 5-year average for this time of year.

Portugal's biggest union is planning a general strike Wednesday, protesting austerity plans. On the heels of the Irish bailout, Europe seems set to catch fire now, literally.

The corporate news wire highlights earnings from Deere (NYSE: DE), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), China Cord Blood (NYSE: CO) and Frontline (NYSE: FRO).

Thursday

All US markets are closed Thursday for the national observance of Thanksgiving. Gobble, gobble.

Friday

US equity and bond markets open for only a portion of the day Friday, closing at 2 PM.

This is Black Friday, so retailers will be in the news, and early data will hit the wire on consumer turnout. Happy shopping! We expect more cash-strapped Americans will be doing their shopping today in order to take advantage of well-promoted sales.

The corporate wire highlights Rio Tinto's (NYSE: RTP) investor seminar. You may find EPS reports from Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG) and Natuzzi Spa (NYSE: NTZ).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Housing Remains Horribly Hopeless

housing remains horribly hopeless
and Hapless!

This last week offered another status check upon the state of housing, and like what was reported in manufacturing this week, we only found more bad news. The latest two barometers included the important Housing Market Index (HMI) and key monthly Housing Starts.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Housing Remains Horribly Hopeless



housing analystWe have taken a different approach to data flow this week, matching like topics in order to serve deeper analysis for more concise reader use. This should help to better clarify the trend in business sectors and economic data segments. In summary, the week's housing market data was profoundly poor, so I pity the reader who seeks to know more. Forgive the corny rhyme brought on by a bout of the flu.

Housing Starts

The Housing Starts Report measures new home construction activity, from permitting, to the start of construction, to completion. The data for October was horrible, with starts falling 11.7% to an annual rate of 519K. Starts were also 1.9% short of the prior year count, which was not a period reflective of boom-time. Many economists look toward single-family starts, a sub-segment of the aggregate starts count, for a more true measure of housing health. In that department activity was a bit better, with segment starts down a lesser 1.1% from September, at 436K.

When Starts are down so much, a rise in Building Permits offers some solace. Indeed, this occurred in October, with Building Permits rising 0.5% to an annual rate of 550K. Still, even permitting activity was 4.5% below the prior year period. Single family home authorizations measured a similar 1.0% above September. Housing Completions ran at a rate of 613K, down 3.2% from September's pace and 18.4% below last year's level.

Regionally speaking, strength was only found in the Northeast, where starts jumped 12.9% over September. That said, building permitting activity was flat in the nation's heavily populated region. The Midwest region's starts rose 1.0% over September, but permitting activity was robust, as the region marked a 14.3% increase there.

The South region of the nation saw Starts fall 13.4%, while permits slipped 3.4%. It appears the Governator is leaving a mess behind, as the West experienced a precipitous 30.5% plummet in Starts and a 0.9% dip in permits. Indeed, we have taken note of voices sounding concern about the potential for further sharp decline in Western home prices.

Housing Market Index (HMI)

Homebuilder confidence, as measured by the HMI, is reflective of the housing starts slippage in October due to the low mark it recorded. Still, the HMI also holds a whiff of hope, which would be a reflection of the gain in housing permitting activity reported above.

The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Housing Market Index gained a point, rising to a mark of 16 in November. However, the latest month's reading could only be called a gain due to a one point downward revision to October's tally, to 15. Furthermore, allow me remind you now that it takes a reading of 50 on the HMI to mark a majority of homebuilders holding a positive outlook.

The best homebuilders could say was that while traffic had not increased, the quality of traffic seemed to intensify. That is a weak statement that cannot hold true across the board of the nation's contractors. The component of the HMI that gauges the traffic of prospective buyers rose one point in October to 12, which is still horribly weak. Apparently homebuilders see a different seriousness about the intentions of those perusing through sample homes. This would perhaps be a sign that Americans are sensing a bottom to home prices, but as we have been outlining here, prices have started into double-dip direction. Thus, this new found "seriousness" might quickly disappear.

Meanwhile, homebuilders remain concerned about banks' sincerity in making funds available to prospective home buyers in today's marketplace. That fear might be alleviated if homebuilders themselves could find financing to build new homes, which they cannot, even despite the thin inventory of available finished construction.

The NAHB reports that homebuilders still believe things will improve in the months ahead. The component of the HMI that gauges sales expectations for the next six months rose two points to 25 in October.

Regionally speaking, the Northeast was the sole segment to post a decline in its HMI score in November, with a three-point fall to 13. The Midwest posted a five-point gain to 18, while the West posted a three-point gain to 15 and the South stuck at 18.

In conclusion, based on these latest two data points, it is clear to us that housing remains in a horribly hopeless state.

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Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO).

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