This holiday shortened Thanksgiving week offers a busy economic schedule nonetheless. Important housing sales and price data will be reported, along with the latest measures of consumer sentiment, personal spending and durable goods orders. We'll also receive the first revision of third quarter GDP and several important earnings releases. Gobble, gobble... don't choke on it!Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
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Thanksgiving Week AheadMonday
Two lightly followed economic reports sit on the slate for Monday morning release. Look for the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and CoreLogic's real estate shadow inventory data.
The Chicago Fed publishes its National Activity Index
for the month of October at 8:30 a.m. ET. The metric captures the economy's cyclical position. September's report showed a decrease in the index to negative -0.58 in October, down from -0.49 in August. Measures below zero simply depict economic growth below historic trend; of course this could also include economic contraction. According to the Chicago Fed, the deterioration came on production-related indicators, which is consistent with other indicators of manufacturing through the period. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved slightly from August, but only the sales, orders, and inventories category made a positive contribution to the index in September.
CoreLogic publishes its shadow inventory data
for August today, showing lender owned property, and also including deeply delinquent property and real estate in foreclosure. Shadow inventory is left out of other inventory metrics, as it sits unavailable for purchase in the short-term.
In interesting sequence, following the NATO meeting in Lisbon, and on announced European interests in a missile defense system, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
delivers his state of the nation address. This sounds like must-see TV for geopolitical junkies.
The corporate wire offers Arch Chemicals' (NYSE: ARJ) analyst meeting in New York. Massey Energy's (NYSE: MEE) board begins a three-day meeting which could lead to a decision to make the company available for acquisition.
The day's earnings schedule highlights reports from Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), China Mass Media (NYSE: CMM), Dole Food (Nasdaq: DOLE), Dycom (NYSE: DY), AutoChina International (Nasdaq: AUTC), China Crescent (Nasdaq: CCTR), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), eFuture Info Tech (Nasdaq: EFUT), Eltek (Nasdaq: ELTK), Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN), G. Willi Food (Nasdaq: WILC), Gladstone Capital (Nasdaq: GLAD), Ituran Location & Control (Nasdaq: ITRN), Jack in the Box (Nasdaq: JACK), Kit Digital (Nasdaq: KITD), KongZhong (Nasdaq: KONG), Kronos Worldwide (NYSE: KRO), Lattice (Nasdaq: LTTC), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Mayflower Cooperative Bank (Nasdaq: MFLR), Northern Technologies (Nasdaq: NTIC), Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN), OTIX Global (Nasdaq: OTIX), Pacific Sunwear of California (Nasdaq: PSUN), Raptor Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: RPTP), Raven Industries (Nasdaq: RAVN), Tech Data (Nasdaq: TECD), Tier Technologies (Nasdaq: TIER), Valspar (NYSE: VAL).Tuesday
The first revision to third quarter GDP
leads Tuesday morning's wire. When initially reported, Q3 GDP marked 2.0% growth. After further clarified quarterly data, economists now expect the rate of expansion to be revised up a notch to 2.4%, based on Bloomberg's tally of economists. The factors behind the change are likely to be greater inventory build and a reduced negative trade impact. The final tally for the second quarter recorded 1.7% GDP growth. Look for the Q3 data at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Less important than next week's report, this week's ICSC Same-Store Sales Report
will measure the period ended November 20. Last week's report showed November 13 period sales slipped 0.1% against the immediate prior period. However, compared to the prior year count, sales measured 3.4% higher. Redbook reported year-over-year sales increased 2.7%.
Next week's report will count Black Friday's sales. Since Thanksgiving was celebrated on the 26th of November last year, the year-over-year comparison will bear some relevance. However, this year's period will benefit from its inclusion of the Saturday after Thanksgiving (counted in the following week for the prior year data), and so sales growth should look especially good this year, as far as ICSC and Redbook report. You will want to look at the full month to get a more perfect measure.Existing Home Sales
for the month of October are due for report at 10:00 AM. In agreement with recent housing data, economists expect sales of preowned homes to have remain depressed in October. The consensus forecast sees an annual rate of sales of 4.5 million, about even with September’s pace. Existing home inventory was measured at 10.7 months supply, based on the most recent sales pace.
The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases the meeting minutes
for its gathering that led to the introduction of "QE2." The media will swarm over any sign of dissent within the minutes, while also focusing on member concerns about the economy. The FOMC release is due at 2:00 PM ET.
Fed Chairman Bernanke
and Treasury Secretary Geithner
will appear before the Financial Stability Oversight Council Tuesday for a little must-see TV. We expect Geithner will get a question or two about his broken promise to provide the Treasury's international trade report on time in October (still overdue). Speak of the devil, the China International Nuclear Symposium kicks off in Beijing Tuesday.
FDIC Chair Sheila Bair
will get an audience Tuesday as well, as she discusses third quarter bank and thrift industry earnings and the situation
The corporate wire highlights Dynegy's (NYSE: DYN) vote on Blackstone's (NYSE: BX) proposed takeover bid. Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JEC) and Sun Life Financial (NYSE: SLF) host analysts' meetings Tuesday. The earnings schedule highlights news from Acorn International (NYSE: ATV), Brown Shoe (NYSE: BWS), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), Medtronic (NYSE: MDT), Patterson Dental (Nasdaq: PDCO), Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL), China TechFaith Wireless (Nasdaq: CNTF), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Cavico (Nasdaq: CAVO), Cracker Barrel (Nasdaq: CBRL), Daktronics (Nasdaq: DAKT), dELiA's (Nasdaq: DLIA), Eaton Vance (NYSE: EV), Fred’s (Nasdaq: FRED), Genesco (NYSE: GCO), Guess (NYSE: GES), Hillenbrand (NYSE: HI), Israel Chemicals (Nasdaq: ISCHY.PK), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), LTX-Credence (Nasdaq: LTXC), Medcath (Nasdaq: MDTH), New Jersey Resources (NYSE: NJR), Newmarket Technology (Nasdaq: IPVO), QAD (Nasdaq: QADI), Shamir Optical (Nasdaq: SHMR), ShangPharma (NYSE: SHP), Ship Finance International (NYSE: SFL), Signet Jewelers (NYSE: SIG), Chemical & Mining of Chile (NYSE: SQM), TIVO (Nasdaq: TIVO), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Verigy (Nasdaq: VRGY), WSP Holdings (NYSE: WH), Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC).Wednesday
The busiest travel day of the year offers perhaps the busiest economic news day of the year as well. With the holiday cooking
, and given the soft work day Friday, a slew of data have been squeezed into Wednesday's schedule.
The premarket slate includes four reports, including key data on durable goods orders, personal spending activity and unemployment claims.
Last week's jobless claims
continued a recent trend of moderation. Weekly Claims for the week ended November 20 measured 439K; it marked a 2K increase, but recent activity below 450K is of positive note. The four-week moving average fell 4K, to 443K last week, which is more important than the weekly count. Further moderation is likely, and would be noticeably welcomed by the market. The economists' consensus here is near meaningless, as the report is too frequent to stray far from the prior week period, and also otherwise tough to measure precisely. That said, Bloomberg lists the economists' consensus at 435K this week.Durable Goods Orders
can sway wildly and light fires on Wall Street as a result. However, the big swings are understood and expected by economists, since these are high-ticket items being measured. Orders rebounded 3.5% in September, after recording a 0.8% drop in August. Because the data includes aircraft, economists also remove transportation to get a clearer understanding of durable goods generally. Aircraft played a big role in the swing for September, and the orders data excluding transportation actually fell 0.4%, after increasing 2.1% in August. Economists forecast orders slipped 0.1% in October, but you can expect the reported result to miss significantly in either direction.Personal Income & Spending
data reaches the wire at 8:30 a.m. Most will be interested in the spending portion of this report, and economists forecast personal consumption will have risen 0.5% for October, which compares against the 0.2% increase in September. Personal income is expected to have increased 0.4%, against the -0.1% decline in September. Core PCE, the Fed's most favored inflation gauge, is found in this report. PCE inflation rose 0.1%, but Core PCE was unchanged in September.
The final premarket report is covered by the regular mortgage activity data
, provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Last week's report covering the period ended November 12, was impacted by Veterans' Day and a sharp spike in mortgage rates. The Market Composite Index declined 14.4% as a result. The Purchase Index, which measures mortgage acquisition on home purchases, fell 5%. The Refinance Index dropped by 16.5%, on the sharp spike in mortgage rates. Contracted rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages jumped to 4.46%, from 4.28%, on positive economic data and uncertainty around the effects and duration of QE2 under apparent/assumed improving economic conditions (based on data flow last week).
Three more reports reach the wire around 10:00 AM, including consumer sentiment, new home sales and home prices. The Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
data for late-November reaches wire at 9:55 AM. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see sentiment edging higher to 69.5, up from 69.3 at the middle of the month.New Home Sales
data for the month of October are due at 10:00 AM. Like the rest of the housing industry metrics, New Home Sales are expected to have continued at a slow rate in October. The annual pace of sales is seen at 314K, which marks a slight increase from the 307K annual pace set in September. At that sales pace, the inventory of new homes stood at 8 months supply.
Keeping with real estate, the FHFA House Price Index
is up for release at 10:00 a.m. as well. The last report showed a 0.4% increase, but we prefer to use the housing price data offered by the Existing Home Sales Report. In this area, we are seeing price decline rather clearly. The NAR report showed the median existing home price down about 2.4% from the year ago period in September.
The EIA will report on both Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Inventory
Wednesday. First up will be the oil data at 10:30. Last week's report covering the period ended November 12, showed crude oil inventory dropped by 7.3 million barrels as refineries ramp up distillate fuel production. Oil inventory is still above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline stores decreased by 2.7 million barrels, and sit in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventory decreased by 1.1 million barrels, but stores remain above the upper boundary of the average range. Natural gas inventory will be reported at 12 PM. Last week's data showed a 3 Bcf increase in inventory, taking stocks to 13 Bcf higher than last year and 327 Bcf above the 5-year average for this time of year.
Portugal's biggest union is planning a general strike Wednesday, protesting austerity plans. On the heels of the Irish bailout, Europe seems set to catch fire now, literally.
The corporate news wire highlights earnings from Deere (NYSE: DE), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), China Cord Blood (NYSE: CO) and Frontline (NYSE: FRO).Thursday
All US markets are closed Thursday for the national observance of Thanksgiving. Gobble, gobble.Friday
US equity and bond markets open for only a portion of the day Friday, closing at 2 PM.
This is Black Friday, so retailers will be in the news, and early data will hit the wire on consumer turnout. Happy shopping! We expect more cash-strapped Americans will be doing their shopping today in order to take advantage of well-promoted sales.
The corporate wire highlights Rio Tinto's (NYSE: RTP) investor seminar. You may find EPS reports from Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG) and Natuzzi Spa (NYSE: NTZ).Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Labels: Week Ahead