Gold Haunted by Black Shadows & Green Specters

The movement of gold prices may have confounded some investors recently. Normally, gold (NYSE: GLD) would rise sharply on a disruptive geopolitical concern like the one we saw in Paris. Indeed, the black shadow of terrorism presents gold as a viable asset for wealth protection. However, the dollar also appreciates in flights to quality when a scare strikes at Europe or elsewhere around the world, especially when the European Central Bank (ECB) comes into play. So gold has had the weight of a strong dollar working against it at the same time. This balance of influences has kept gold about unchanged since last month, despite bouts of volatility. See the full report on gold here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

Gold – When the Info Changes... No I'm Still Bullish!

John Maynard Keynes famously said in response to criticism about his altered view on monetary policy during the Great Depression, “When my information changes, I alter my conclusion. What do you do sir?” So what changed that caused the dramatic u-turn in gold prices last week? Well, it was the introduction of a strong economic data point that makes a stronger case for Fed monetary action in December. It drove a surge in the dollar, which had its usual detrimental impact on commodities including gold. However, the downturn in gold and upturn for the dollar began even before the employment data, thanks to what I saw as refreshed media mischief around the testimony of Federal Reserve Chair Yellen last Wednesday; and before that on the misinterpretation of the FOMC monetary policy statement by major business media. It would seem that thanks to the tangible change in information in the jobs report this momentum could continue for as long as no new information comes into play. But that is exactly what I expect to happen, for new information to come into play, and maybe as soon as this week. So I’m not turning bearish on gold now, though gold does run the risk of falling further until that new information surfaces. See the report on gold here.

Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Prices will Swing Higher as Fed’s Hands are Tied

Gold prices should appreciate from here. Gold prices have been burdened by the strengthening dollar for the past couple years. The dollar was supported again last week thanks to extraordinary language from the European Central Bank (ECB), but gold hardly budged while oil prices plunged. The reason appeared to be due to expectations about the Fed policy decision this week, or rather its likely indecision. The Fed will probably not raise interest rates this week, given recently soft U.S. economic indications and the strong position of the ECB in the opposite direction. The notable risk to gold buyers here is that the Fed stubbornly acts to raise rates this week, but that possibility has decreased thanks to the latest data. Click through here for the full report on gold prices and the Fed. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), Direxion Daily Gold Miner Bullish (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bearish (NYSE: DUST), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold has a Tragic Flaw to Overcome

Some investors are wondering today why gold isn’t doing better given the latest troubling economic data. Poor economic data should serve to take away the risk of Federal Reserve rate action. That works against nascent dollar support and for gold. Likewise, weak economic results reduce expectations for the U.S. economy and the dollar, again serving gold. There was one tragic flaw in what was otherwise supportive data for gold last week; it included information about disinflationary pressure. If the dollar cost of goods and services have disinflationary pressure then the dollar could go further in buying gold as well. Don’t fret though; this issue looks to be transitory and inflation may soon serve gold if I’m right. There are signs of it, and other supports are setting up as well, so I expect we will overcome this tragic flaw. See more of this report on gold here.

Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Prices Today – Euro Area Deflation & Janet Yellen Pose Threat but for How Long?

Spot Gold Price at Kitco.com

A double dose of trouble threatens gold prices today, as euro-area inflation data came in soft this morning and Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak later this afternoon. Each of the two factors serves dollar strength, which is threatening to gold price appreciation. But after close study of the data and realization of other issues, we are suspicious of the staying power of the factors against gold. See the full report on today's gold prices here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-29-15 Close
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.4%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	-0.4%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	-0.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.2%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+0.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+0.7%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+0.2%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+1.5%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	-0.5%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-1.6%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	-0.1%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	-0.8%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+0.3%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	+0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Rally Cut at the Knees but it Still has Legs

When the Federal Reserve Chairperson addressed a group in Massachusetts Thursday evening she reiterated the message of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of a week prior. The threat of an October interest rate action was thus reinforced, and the dollar rebounded. In effect, Janet Yellen offset the impact of the passing of ECB events last week without any new action by the European Central Bank, which had stabilized the euro versus the dollar and given gold lift. I still expect intensification of government shutdown concern this coming week and beyond to weigh on the dollar, and also for the October Fed meeting to pass without rate action, giving gold support. The risk to this view is that the Fed raises rates in October, which I believe would be a temporary setback for gold that could run into 2016 until investors begin to again anticipate European and global recovery and a normalizing dollar. If the Fed refrains from action in October, as I expect it should, precious metals prices should muster a run higher into November before again facing a Fed driven challenge. Long-term metals investors can expect a more sustainable upward trajectory to start in 2016 (likely second half), when the ECB is likely ready to end its quantitative easing program or if some other unforeseen factor comes against dollar strength. See the report on gold here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-25-15
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.6%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	-0.5%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	-0.6%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-02%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	-0.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-1.7%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	-2.3%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-4.0%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-1.0%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	-2.0%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+0.2%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	-0.8%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	-5.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Pro Investor Who Predicted Today's Turn in Gold Says it Goes Higher from Here

While hoping followers didn’t miss our call that Thursday (post ECB) would mark a good entry point for gold ownership, we’re reiterating today that gold is good to go higher from here. The buildup to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting drove the euro lower versus the dollar as expected and was a setback for gold. However, yesterday we got a hint in his testimony that Draghi would not add to the ECB’s extraordinary measures today and so gold got clearance to turn upward. Today the ECB did not further act, and the dollar is giving way with gold gaining sharply. I’m suggesting gold goes higher from here on continued dollar decline and increasing concern about the U.S. government shutdown next week. Increasing speculation about the Fed holding off on rate action in October will also serve gold. Thus, gold is good to go higher from here. See the full bullish report on gold here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-24-15 Midday
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+2.3%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	+2.4%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	+2.3%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+2.2%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+2.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+6.0%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+4.7%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+16.4%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	+6.3%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	+5.5%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+6.6%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+5.0%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	+7.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold is a Responsible Hedge at Times of Terror Risk

Gold and relative securities are a responsible hedge now against dollar exposure because of the risk of terrorism around the September 11 memorial and also on the possibility that the Federal Reserve refrains from rate action. Either would likely harm dollar strength and lift gold prices higher.

FBI Director James Comey said at an intelligence community conference Thursday: “We’ve long found, as you know with al Qaeda, an organization trying to motivate acts in association with that date,” he said. “And we’ve seen some focus on date in [the Islamic State’s] efforts to motivate violence in the homeland.”

See the full report on gold and terrorism risk here. 

Precious Metal Relative

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)

ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)

iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)

ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)

Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)

Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)

Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)

Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)

Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Week – Lookout for Lockhart

Gold investors had better lookout for Lockhart this week. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is scheduled to speak on Monday. When last he spoke he stirred up worry about the Fed’s plans by sharing his inclination to raise rates in September, which is probably not good news for gold. Well, actually, that depends on how badly stock investors take the news, because pure panic in equities would spread fear into the dollar trade, which serves gold. It’s complicated – try to follow along. See the full warning on gold here.

Precious Metal Relative	Friday	YTD
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.25%	-8.3%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	+0.38%	-7.7%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	+0.27%	-7.8%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.86%	-6.3%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+1.04%	-6.5%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+0.22%	-27.1%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	-0.63%	-21.2%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+0.32%	-74%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	-1.06%	+48%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-0.44%	-25.9%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	+0.35%	-11.9%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+2.33%	-34.4%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+0.47%	-38.8%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	-7.17%	-48.7%
Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM)	-0.13%	-44.8%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why Gold is Not Gaining on Greece

Gold investors may be dumbfounded this Monday morning by the inaction of the precious metal. The Greeks voted “no” over the weekend and stocks opened to turmoil on Monday. Uncertainty around the Greece issue has never been more prominent, and yet the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which tracks the spot price of the metal, was relatively unchanged in the early AM on Monday. The reason is simple, the dollar factor still outweighs the safe haven factor for gold, and so as the dollar gained this morning, the upside for gold was stymied. Thus, it does appear the Greek Gods show no favor to gold. See the report on Greece & gold here.

Precious Metals Relative Security	Monday at Noon
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.2%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.5%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+1.4%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+0.1%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+3.9%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	+0.9%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

A Real Good Reason to Hold Gold - Terrorism in America

After speaking with a globally connected friend of mine this morning, I was reminded of a good reason to hold gold. This friend of mine is an employee of a universally known global non-profit. She said to me that she is going to have to stop reading the daily news compilation that is provided to her each morning, because it is simply too disturbing. She expands, “It’s all about ISIS. ISIS is everywhere.” It’s that last part that troubles me most. Yet, in a recent article, I reasoned why 3 recent terrorism events were non-starters for gold. This article does not contradict that piece, because if ISIS is everywhere, then it should not be long before we start to see its sponsored terrorism here in the United States as well. The 3 terrorism events that happened abroad were not a problem for America and so not a problem for the dollar. When that critical fact changes, and some important representatives of our government are indicating that could be as soon as this weekend, gold prices likely find support. Still, minor and occasional terrorism remain non-threats to our economy and the dollar; rather, it would take a significant event or regular disturbances to stop the current and very powerful trend of dollar strengthening. See more on why to hold gold. Article interests Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Troubling Outlook for GLD

Investors in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which tracks the price of gold, closed out a tough week last week as gold prices fell against the rise of the dollar. Most of the GLD’s declines were born on Monday last week, when most of the dollar’s gains were captured. The remainder of the week mostly saw gold and the GLD meander against a similar trading pattern for the dollar. The catalyst for each was surprisingly not so much Greece, but rather it was driven by a renewed focus on the diverging paths of the U.S., European and Japanese central banks. Still, I believe there is an underlying and credible shadow of a Grexit hanging over gold now. This week presents more concern for SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) holders as a result, but long-term interests willing to bear near-term volatility should hold on.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

5-Day Chart of GLD at Seeking Alpha

The five-day chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) shows most of the week’s 2.2% loss came at the start of the period. However, a soft new level for the gold tracking ETF held through the remainder of the week as issues that weighed on gold persisted. The GLD even climbed into the close of trading for the week, on hope for a late Friday or weekend restoration for Greece. That appears unlikely now.

The catalyst for the decline in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) this week was clear. The start of the week produced some very hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Powell. His comments piled on to the tone of the close of the week before, when San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke of a September Fed rate hike. Governor Powell suggested two rate hikes would be appropriate this year, with the first coming in September. This set currency trading into motion, and refocused investors on the longer term issue for currencies, which also impacted the price of gold. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) dropped as a result.

The divergence of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policies has been the key driver for dollar appreciation against rival currencies over the past year or so. The Fed, of course, ended quantitative easing last year and is apparently planning for liftoff of the Fed Funds Rate sometime this year. Meanwhile, the ECB and BOJ have only just begun extraordinary easing measures. Furthermore, the ECB may have to go the extra mile soon should Greece drive severe disruption in Europe by defaulting on its debt payments and possibly dropping out of the eurozone. As a result, it was exactly the worst time for a Fed member to be speaking hawkishly and Powell excelled at just that last week.

1-Month Chart of the Dollar Index at Bloomberg

This chart of the dollar index shows the nascent gains of the dollar as it recovered some of its recently lost ground last week. The dollar looks poised to climb higher this week as Greece’s Prime Minister has set plans in motion for a referendum vote, to allow the people of Greece to decide if they will accept austerity in its latest form (best last offer from Eurogroup) or drop out of the eurozone and go back to the drachma. Given that leftists are rising to power in Spain and France, there is good reason to worry about which way Greece will go, as it may serve as a guide for the future of the euro.

As a result, we should see strong dollar strength this week, which weighs against gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). It’s difficult to assess an intrinsic value to gold, and thus the GLD, given that I believe it has important currency characteristics and is mankind’s default currency in my view. As a result, I believe it trades like currencies to some degree, and also like a commodity priced in dollars. So as the dollar appreciates in value, the price of gold should decline, just as the euro and oil should. Supports for the GLD look to be at the $110 level, and then to $105, which I believe would be reached if Greece does exit the eurozone. So the outlook for the GLD is not good near-term because of the issues discussed here. My long-term perspective for gold and the GLD remains the same though - hold gold and the GLD, as eventually I believe the dollar must give way to a developing world. Also, political and geopolitical instability and the perhaps someday regressing world call for the holding of mankind’s default currency long-term.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.