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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Friday, January 31, 2014

SUPERBOWL: Bullish GDP vs. Bearish Housing

bulls versus bears


By Markos N. Kaminis:

Thursday’s rally was spurred by economic data, with GDP coming in better than expected for the fourth quarter. But housing data reported the same day supports a recent argument for a weakening real estate sector. So which will win over the long-term market perspective, bullish GDP or bearish housing?

THURSDAY’S ECONOMIC REPORTS

Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
Actual
GDP Q4 2013 (Advance)
4.1%
3.0%
3.2%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-8.7%
329K (R.)
327K
348K
-31

-31.8
 -R symbolizes “revised”

Thursday’s economic data featured two major reports that pitted against one other to affect the market profoundly. We received the first reporting of fourth quarter GDP but its strength matched against a very weak Pending Home Sales data point.

Q4 GDP grew 3.2%, which while slower than Q3, still exceeded economists’ expectations for a pace of 3.0%. This one data point was the factor driving stocks higher Thursday, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) and PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) gaining between 0.7% and 1.9%. The good news was the sort that could be capable of turning the trend against the January slide, but that does not appear to be the case. At the start of trading Friday, stocks were broadly lower, and perceived safe havens like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) and Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) are all benefiting.

Still, the good GDP dish had all the right spices, as the government noted important contributions from consumer spending, exports, commercial property investment and inventory investment. Those are solid drivers of healthy economic growth, so then maybe we’ve acted prematurely in punishing stocks this year. Well, one sector of the economy would beg to differ, real estate.

Unfortunately, GDP was not the only news of the day yesterday. Pending Home Sales were reported down sharply by 8.7% in December. A decline was expected, but not by that much. Weather did come into play though. Still, other housing data reported over recent weeks and months has continued to offer bad news as well.

Pending Home Sales measures contract signings for existing home sales. Existing Home Sales data measures the actual closing of an existing home sale. Data was reported on closings last week and it showed a relatively stagnant marketplace. Unfortunately, Pending Home Sales is forward looking and portends more trouble for existing home sales down the road. Add to that the fact that earlier this week, New Home Sales came in sharply lower for December, running at an annual pace of 414K, versus 445K in November and short of economists’ expectations for 450K, and we can see that real estate activity is slowing. Recently, Michael Douville, expert real estate columnist at our blog, issued a rather sour outlook for housing in 2014, and that seems to be receiving data confirmation now.

GDP was strong enough to carry the day and settle investor concerns for a day, with the help of a strong Facebook (NYSE: FB) EPS report. Today, though, investors are looking past it and also a slew of fresh economic data showing decent consumer spending and sentiment. They are instead continuing to take money out of stocks generally for the same reason they started to do so this year, which we predicted. I expect this is due to momentum building upon itself with the message of the January slide effectively reaching the masses of investors with plenty of recent gains to protect. Americans protecting their retirement savings in work sponsored retirement accounts are very likely to pull some capital off the table due to the message they’re receiving today about that. So, I’m sorry to say, neither GDP nor Pending Home Sales matters much for now, but a case can be built with time. Next week brings new market moving employment data, so stay tuned.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Thursday, January 30, 2014

Twitter Wall Street Stock Market - LIVE FEED

Live Twitter Feed - Wall Street, Stock Market & Business



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. This should interest SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), GE (NYSE: GE), Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Herbalife (NYSE: HLF), Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI), Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR) and Facebook (NYSE: FB).

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INTERNATIONAL MARKETS: A Trojan Horse for Europe & Asia

Trojan Horse
International markets are trading on 3 key factors and several other points today. Turkey continues to weigh heavily, though after the Turkish central bank action and aggressive wording, it is lifting its neighbors to the west today. U.S. Fed action from Wednesday drove all markets lower to start Thursday, but then a strong American GDP data point lifted them back up. Direct measures of economic activity out of Spain and Germany are reflecting well for Europe today, save the black market notation. Two key markets are closed in Asia on the Lunar New Year. That Year of the Horse their ushering in might be an appropriate yet disappointing one, should that horse be a Turkish Trojan version.

international markets blogOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

International Markets


EUROPE
9:54 AM ET
ASIA/PACIFIC
CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50
+0.4%
NIKKEI 225
-2.5%
FTSE 100
-0.1%
Hang Seng
-0.5%
CAC 40
+0.4%
S&P/ASX 200
-0.8%
German DAX
+0.2%
Korean KOSPI
NA
Athens ASE
+3.7%
BSE India SENSEX
-0.7%

ASIA Today

Markets are closed today in China and Korea for the celebration of the Lunar New Year – The Year of the Horse. Markets will be shut until February 7 in China and until the end of the week in South Korea for the celebration.

ASIAN MARKET ETFs
Today
iShares MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWJ)
-0.34%
SPDR S&P China (NYSE: GXC)
+0.91%
iShares MSCI Australia (NYSE: EWA)
+1.35%
iShares MSCI S. Korea (NYSE: EWY)
+0.97%
iShares S&P India (Nasdaq: INDY)
+1.91%

Asian stocks mostly fell on the day after the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed forward with its asset purchase tapering effort. Global investors are worried that the U.S. consumption economy could falter without the Fed’s extra efforts, after previous signs of such faltering. Basically, Asia just followed the lead of American shares, which dropped precipitously on Wednesday. Even as Asia develops its economies, U.S. and Europe continue to represent important sources of life for Asian business. Emerging markets have been in turmoil since the weak manufacturing report from China, which remains unsettling and unresolved.

The NIKKEI 225 was stripped bare as it fell 2.5% on the day. Japan is having its worst month in nearly two years. Shares of Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) are down about 0.3% each this morning in U.S. trading. However, American traded ETFs are up for most of Asia this morning, reflecting what is likely to occur in Asian trade Friday. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is bouncing back today on a solid GDP report and on strong earnings from Facebook (NYSE: FB) and others.

EUROPE Today

Look at those volatile Greek shares, as the Global X FTSE (NYSE: GREK) soars 2.8% after a very rough recent period. Greece is of course Turkey’s neighbor and deemed more closely tied to the Turkish economic turmoil than other euro-trash brothers. The Athens Stock Market Index (ASE) is higher by 3.7% at this hour, but the other indexes we follow here are relatively unchanged.

EUROPEAN ETFs
Today
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)
+0.04%
iShares MSCI U.K. (NYSE: EWU)
+0.12%
iShares MSCI France (NYSE: EWQ)
-0.07%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)
+0.18%
Global X FTSE Greece (NYSE: GREK)
+2.79%

Still, European ETFs started the U.S. trading day much higher than they are trading at this hour, as the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK) chart shows. If we looked back before the U.S. market open and the good news about GDP, though, we would find a hump at around 8:30 AM ET. Europe started the day lower, similarly following the path of Asian shares on the U.S. Fed decision and American stock decline yesterday.



Europe is still unnerved by Turkish and other emerging market issues. Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 Index marked a 1.0% gain on the day, and the iShares MSCI Turkey (NYSE: TUR) is up 2.3% in U.S. trading after the Turkish central bank acted aggressively.

Spanish & German Data

In other news, Spain’s GDP grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter, as expected, but some estimates show the Spanish economy is growing faster in the shadows. The black market is now estimated to be roughly 25% of total economic activity, as distrust of government and distaste of taxes results from tough times. The iShares MSCI Spain (NYSE: EWP) was up 0.9% near noon in US trading.

German unemployment declined more than forecast in January. The number of unemployed declined by 28K in January, better than the 5K predicted, to 2.93 million. The unemployment rate stuck at 6.8% after adjustment to the December rate, where it marks the lowest rate in two decades. Shares of major German corporation, Siemens (NYSE: SI), were still down by 0.8% on the day.

The Year of the Horse is here. Let’s hope it doesn’t open and offer up a sour surprise.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, January 28, 2014

5 ETFs to Avoid

The nascent market downturn has picked up steam of late, leading me to begin to think about ETFs to avoid for the near-term. While some will say the issues offer buying opportunity on already marked decline, I suggest not attempting to catch the falling knife just yet. There remain longer term questions to be answered about the global economy and recent signs of underlying weakness.

Avoid Oil Complex Trackers

The United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO) and the iPath S&P Crude Oil Total Return ETF (NYSE: OIL) are two of those atop my list today, for various reasons.

oil price chart



The one-year chart presents what seems like stability for the securities here. The USO and OIL are well off their highs of last year now, when the economy was making marked improvement and it seemed global demand was building again. However, since then, questions have surfaced about oil supply and pricing given American reserve discovery and development. Obviously, recent weather has eaten into natural gas reserves, but that is a seasonal issue that I believe commodity traders are not yet ready to call the new normal. As a result, it’s not a serious long-term driver currently.

The oil market securities began to recover from late 2013 lows, but have this year been struck again by weak U.S. economic data found in the monthly Employment Situation Report nonfarm payroll shortfall. Add to that, weakness seen in economies globally, especially in China recently, and the oil outlook comes into question. Emerging markets are suddenly seeing crisis as well, so oil has a great weight against it, and as a result, investors will want to avoid the OIL and USO.

Emerging Market Weakness

Don’t try to catch the falling knife in the emerging markets today. While the one-year chart of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: EEM) seems to offer a buying opportunity, it’s too early to add to risk today.

emerging market etf chart



Turkey is in the midst of a crisis and other markets are likely to feel the heat near-term before things settle. Last week, all of Europe was deeply red and most of Asia. In Sao Paulo, the Bovespa was off 2.8% last week and is down 7.2% on the year through Friday. In Moscow, the RTS is down 5.5% year-to-date and fell 2.3% last week. India’s Sensex is only off fractionally on the year, but the Hang Seng is down 3.7%. Greek stocks were down 7.1% last week. We can see, then, that risk is definitely off. It’s not for the brave to buy now, it’s for the fearless. Therefore, investors will want to avoid the emerging market trackers including the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: EEM).

Avoid Consumer Sensitive Issues

The retailers contributed greatly to this year’s selloff. Despite solid recent retail sales data, too many individual retailers are reporting on a thrifty U.S. consumer. Retailers Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD) had some extremely sour news to report this quarter and struggling J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) announced some store closures. We’re dealing with an oversaturated retail environment that cannot support current capacity in my view. While some names might still do well on individual drivers, the group on the whole is out of favor, in my opinion.

consumer sensitive stock chart



The softness is clearly seen in the tail end of the chart here for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT). Today’s Consumer Confidence Index improvement was contrary to recent trend, and offered lift for these two issues today. However, I think investors should not look past other indicators which have reflected problems recently. Weekly same-store sales data have been weak; while some of that is on weather, it’s coinciding with a failing weekly measure of consumer comfort published by Bloomberg and the Reuters/University of Michigan measure of sentiment.

While in the line of fire, these ETFs are dangerous to buy today, and so I suggest continuing to avoid them here. The factors that have come against the broad reaching issues are longer term in nature and so questions about the global and U.S. economies need to be answered before sustainable change occurs. While we may see improvement on a day-to-day basis, until employment trends are repaired and the China question is answered, I cannot see good reason to approach these five issues today. Avoid them for now.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, January 27, 2014

Week Ahead for Stocks

Unfortunately, after a distressing week for the market, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) down 2.6% on the week and 2.1% on Friday alone, the week ahead may only offer more of the same.

stock charts


It was an ugly week for stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrials taking the worst of it. Capital flowed out of stocks and into safe havens like gold and relative securities like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).

Security
Last Week
Year-to-Date
Last 12 Months
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-2.6%
-3.1%
+19.7%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-3.4%
-4.2%
+14.8%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-1.3%
-1.4%
+30.1%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
+1.1%
+5.3%
-24.2%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
+2.9%
-2.2%
-0.7%

The Week Ahead


The market’s focus will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy decision on this coming Wednesday. It seems a far stretch to expect the Fed to back off the tapering it has only just initiated. If, however, it further tapers its asset purchasing activity, affectionately known as quantitative easing, amid fading economic confidence, stocks will slide deeper. And if the Fed holds to its recent pace, but offers further inflation discussion nonetheless, that would hurt as well. Luckily for us, Ben Bernanke is still running the show, so we can at least hope for tempered discussion within the release.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
MONDAY


464K
450K
3.1
5.0
TUESDAY


FOMC Meeting Begins


+3.5%
+1.6%
-Ex-Transportation
+1.2%
+0.7%
S&P Case Shiller HPI 20-City (Oct.)
+1.0%
+0.8%
78.1
79.0
95.9

13
10
-1.9%

-Year-to-Year Pace
+0.9%

+3.1%

WEDNESDAY




+4.7%



-Crude Oil Inventory
+1.0 M B

-Gasoline Inventory
+2.1 M B

THURSDAY


GDP Q4 2013 (Advance)
4.1%
3.0%
+0.2%
-0.5%
326K
327K
-31

-107 Bcf

FRIDAY


+0.2%
+0.2%
-Personal Spending
+0.5%
+0.2%
-Core PCI
+0.1%
+0.1%
+0.4%
+0.4%
59.1
59.5
80.4
81.0



There will be a slew of other important economic data availing itself this week. Several important measures covering every facet of the economy are scheduled for report this week, save the monthly Employment Situation Report which comes due the following week. So, economic data will either continue to undermine investor confidence or serve to stabilize it. This matters immensely to stocks in need of some reassurance.

Corporate earnings plays strongly as well this week, with big names like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and others reporting, but no matter the company specific news, I see broader stock market decline continuing.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
MONDAY

Apple
Nasdaq: AAPL
Alkermes
Nasdaq: ALKS
American Electric Power
NYSE: AEP
Black Hills
NYSE: BKH
Caterpillar
NYSE: CAT
Haemonetics
NYSE: HAE
Headwaters
NYSE: HW
Kulicke and Soffa
Nasdaq: KLIC
Nathan’s Famous
Nasdaq: NATH
NVR
NYSE: NVR
Oppenheimer
NYSE: OPY
Radware
Nasdaq: RDWR
Rayonier
NYSE: RYN
Regis
NYSE: RGS
Rent-A-Center
Nasdaq: RCII
Roper
NYSE: ROP
Seagate
NYSE: STX
Sonic Foundry
Nasdaq: SOFO
Ultratech
Nasdaq: UTEK
United States Steel
NYSE: X
Wynn Resorts
Nasdaq: WYNN
Zions Bancorporation
Nasdaq: ZION
TUESDAY

A.O. Smith
NYSE: AOS
Amgen
Nasdaq: AMGN
AT&T
NYSE: T
Boston Properties
NYSE: BXP
Calamos Asset Management
Nasdaq: CLMS
Check Point Software
Nasdaq: CHKP
Cirrus Logic
Nasdaq: CRUS
CIT Group
NYSE: CIT
Comcast
Nasdaq: CMCSA
Corning
NYSE: GLW
D.R. Horton
NYSE: DHI
DuPont
NYSE: DD
Electronic Arts
NYSE: EA
Ford
NYSE: F
Iberiabank
Nasdaq: IBKC
Illinois Tool Works
NYSE: ITW
International Speedway
Nasdaq: ISCA
Nucor
NYSE: NUE
Owens-Illinois
NYSE: OI
Pentair
NYSE: PNR
Pfizer
NYSE: PFE
Plantronics
NYSE: PLT
Potlatch
NYSE: PCH
RF Micro Devices
Nasdaq: RFMD
T. Rowe Price
Nasdaq: TROW
VMware
NYSE: VMW
Waters
NYSE: WAT
World Acceptance
Nasdaq: WRLD
Yahoo
Nasdaq: YHOO
WEDNESDAY

1-800-Flowers.com
Nasdaq: FLWS
Amdocs
NYSE: DOX
Biogen Idec
Nasdaq: BIIB
Boeing
NYSE: BA
Callaway Golf
NYSE: ELY
Capstead Mortgage
NYSE: CMO
Citrix Systems
Nasdaq: CTXS
Dow Chemical
NYSE: DOW
EMC
NYSE: EMC
Facebook
NYSE: FB
Hess
NYSE: HES
JetBlue Airways
Nasdaq: JBLU
Mastech
NYSE: MHH
Navios Maritime
NYSE: NMM
Piper Jaffray
NYSE: PJC
Praxair
NYSE: PX
Qualcomm
Nasdaq: QCOM
Southern
NYSE: SO
Symantec
Nasdaq: SYMC
Tetra Tech
Nasdaq: TTEK
Tractor Supply
Nasdaq: TSCO
Tupperware
NYSE: TUP
Valero
NYSE: VLO
Vistaprint
Nasdaq: VPRT
WellPoint
NYSE: WLP
THURSDAY

3M
NYSE: MMM
Alliant Techsystems
NYSE: ATK
Altria Group
NYSE: MO
Amazon.com
Nasdaq: AMZN
AutoNation
NYSE: AN
Beazer Homes
NYSE: BZH
Blackstone
NYSE: BX
BOK Financial
Nasdaq: BOKF
Broadcom
Nasdaq: BRCM
Camden Property Trust
NYSE: CPT
CARBO Ceramics
NYSE: CRR
Cardinal Health
NYSE: CAH
Celgene
Nasdaq: CELG
Chipotle Mexican Grill
NYSE: CMG
Chubb
NYSE: CB
Colgate-Palmolive
NYSE: CL
ConocoPhillips
NYSE: COP
Eli Lilly
NYSE: LLY
Exxon Mobil
NYSE: XOM
Google
Nasdaq: GOOG
Harley-Davidson
NYSE: HOG
Invesco
NYSE: IVZ
JDS Uniphase
Nasdaq: JDSU
Kennametal
NYSE: KMT
L-3 Communications
NYSE: LLL
MakeMyTrip
Nasdaq: MMYT
MICROS Systems
Nasdaq: MCRS
NewMarket
NYSE: NEU
Newmont Mining
NYSE: NEM
Northrop Grumman
NYSE: NOC
Occidental Petroleum
NYSE: OXY
Overstock.com
Nasdaq: OSTK
Peabody Energy
NYSE: BTU
Prologis
NYSE: PLD
Raytheon
NYSE: RTN
The Pantry
Nasdaq: PTRY
Thermo Fisher Scientific
NYSE: TMO
Time Warner Cable
NYSE: TWC
Under Armour
NYSE: UA
United Parcel Service
NYSE: UPS
Viacom
Nasdaq: VIAB
Visa
NYSE: V
Whirlpool
NYSE: WHR
Xcel Energy
NYSE: XEL
Zimmer Holdings
NYSE: ZMH
FRIDAY

AbbVie
Nasdaq: ABBV
Aon
NYSE: AON
Autoliv
NYSE: ALV
Avery Dennison
NYSE: AVY
Baidu
Nasdaq: BIDU
Booz Allen Hamilton
NYSE: BAH
Chevron
NYSE: CVX
CONSOL Energy
NYSE: CNX
Dominion Resources
NYSE: D
ImmunoGen
Nasdaq: IMGN
KKR Financial
NYSE: KFN
Lancaster Colony
Nasdaq: LANC
Lantronix
Nasdaq: LTRX
Lear
NYSE: LEA
Legg Mason
NYSE: LM
LyondellBasell
NYSE: LYB
MasterCard
NYSE: MA
Mattel
NYSE: MAT
Mead Johnson
NYSE: MJN
Micrel
Nasdaq: MCRL
Modine Manufacturing
NYSE: MOD
National Oilwell Varco
NYSE: NOV
Newell Rubbermaid
NYSE: NWL
PACCAR
Nasdaq: PCAR
Pixelworks
Nasdaq: PXLW
Provident Financial Services
NYSE: PFS
Saia
Nasdaq: SAIA
Simon Property
NYSE: SPG
Tyco International
NYSE: TYC
Tyson Foods
NYSE: TSN
Weyerhaeuser
NYSE: WY
WisdomTree Investments
Nasdaq: WETF

Other reports you may enjoy:

Apple EPS Setup Against the Whisper
Stock Market Shock Dictates Continued Avoidance of Passive Long Positions
Alcatel-Lucent EPS – What’s the Whisper Anyway?
Why I See GE’s Soft Floor at $24 and Bedrock at $20

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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