Sell Spain - The Leftists are Coming!

Some pundits believe that any sort of closure for the Greece issue is a plus for Europe, whether the place and people from which Europe got its name stays in the eurozone or leaves it. But there is one European market sector that I do not see a positive outlook for either way. Spain looks to be the next Greece because of a political circumstance similar to what occurred in Greece before the current crisis heated up. I suggest investors sell the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (NYSE: EWP) and Spanish stocks generally, because of a succession of political victories that too closely resembles what happened in Greece. I believe it will lead to division between Spain (perhaps emboldened now by Greece’s display of strength) and more progressive economies to the North. See more on investing in Spain. This article also interests iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV), Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK), WisdomTree Hedged Europe (NYSE: HEDJ).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

BREAKING: Tsipras Conceding on Points, Schauble Unmoved – Beware Rumor, Conjecture & Negotiating Tactics

Be careful about reacting to the minute by minute rumor and conjecture dished out by European players with interest in maintaining financial market stability, and also beware the big news break that each media outlet wants to be first to report. Throughout this Greek crisis, there have been erroneous reports about resolution and breakthrough, and nothing has come of any of it up to this point. This morning, I awoke at precisely the moment Bloomberg TV was reporting Alexis Tsipras was conceding significant ground via a letter and based on a tweet from an FT reporter (his full report is below). But reports like these have misled investors in the past, as it seems the Europeans on both sides of the table have been careful to maintain order and stability in the euro and financial markets, and I believe at times have misled the media. So, let’s wait and see before we react. See the full report on Tsipras' letter here. 

Relative Securities	Yesterday	YTD
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.2%	+1.1%
iShares Europe ETF (NYSE: IEV)	-0.8%	+5.4%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)	+0.02%	+11.9%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)	-0.6%	+5.7%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)	-0.8%	+4.0%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK)	+6.0%	-26.8%
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE)	-0.8%	-7.4%
iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX)	-1.0%	-35.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Euro Manipulation – I Feel So Dirty

The euro made a dramatic reversal that seemed to make very little sense Monday, and so I feel kind of dirty. The euro was down dramatically 1.9% versus the U.S. dollar in overnight overseas trading on obvious Greece concerns. Yet, by afternoon trading in the U.S., it was sharply higher versus the dollar. It was unnatural and had a lot to do with the actions of the European central banks plus a strangely timed news bit about Puerto Rico. I feel like my money has been touched inappropriately. See my report on euro manipulation. Article interests CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN), ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO).

Disclosure: I'm long EUO and short UUP as a hedge and play on volatility. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Merkel vs. Obama - A Game of He Said She Said

Last week, a rumor supposedly leaked from a French government representative indicated President Obama said that the current strength of the dollar was problematic. The dollar weakened on the news, which would serve the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to begin its monetary tightening plans; that in turn serves the economy long-term. The President had to deny ever saying it, given its unpatriotic connotations, but I’m sure many market players still believe he said it; and it has impacted the dollar in my view. This morning in Germany, it seems the German Chancellor fired a salvo back onto the currency battlefield. Angela Merkel said a strong euro was not a good thing for nations on the periphery of the eurozone economy. In speaking on the euro and in sharing her indicated preference for current weakness, the dollar recovered some of that previously lost ground and the battle was balanced again in the stealth currency war between trading partners. Though working now into the late Friday afternoon, the dollar is back near where it started the day. See my report He Said She Said. Article interests ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO), CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares US Dollar Bear (NYSE: UDN). 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

How the ECB Economic Forecast Clears the Path for U.S. Markets

The key to the U.S. market Thursday emanated from overseas, and I believe helps to clear a path for U.S. stocks to rise moving forward. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, the world’s last divided city, offered a key tidbit from its highly publicized activities. The ECB’s economic forecast is critical to the U.S. market because of the interrelation between the dollar and euro and the U.S. Fed’s interest in it. The news was good for Europe, but how does that translate into American English? See the full report here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV), iShares Germany (NYSE: EWG), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY and GREK. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

THURSDAY’S MARKET – ECB Economic Forecasts Are Most Important Today

Thursday is all about the ECB and the release of its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts. More important than the details of its bond buying program, this data will offer investors insight into how long the program might run (through September 2016 expected). If the euro-area economy is improving as I expect it is, we may start to see the unraveling of the dollar trade. That means higher ground for gold and other commodities, though oil remains pressured by the supply issue. Stay tuned to Wall Street Greek, as I’ll be issuing a report on the energy market and the supply issue later today.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Thursday’s Market

Security	3-4-15	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.4%	2.3%	14.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.6%	2.0%	13.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.4%	5.4%	20.4%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	-0.3%	0.9%	-10.7%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+3.1%	-5.6%	-51.6%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)	+0.1%	1.5%	6.9%
PowerShares DB US $ Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+0.5%	4.8%	18.2%

Economic Reports

Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting weighs heavy on markets, and certainly markets hinged to the dollar. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, but investors are keyed on what the ECB has to say about its quantitative easing plans. More details are expected about the 1.1 billion euro bond buying plan, which is expected to run at 60 billion euros of assets per month.

The ECB will also issue its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts, and this data could be what matters most today. Lately, we’ve noted an uptick in the European broader economy and investors have looked toward that for reason to buy Europe sooner rather than later. If we see improvement in the EU economy, the dollar may have already marked its top, and a shift could begin for euro strengthening. This would mark an unraveling of the most popular trade today, and it would affect all commodity markets and the shares of many U.S. internationals beaten back by the strong dollar. Keep your eye on EU growth and its inflation forecasts. Note also that China revised lower its GDP expectations for 2015 to a still relatively strong 7% rate.

Economic data continues to weigh heavily Thursday, with several more preludes to Friday’s monthly jobs report offering some reason for speculation today. Challenger’s Job-Cuts Report, which offers information about announced corporate layoffs month-to-month, showed a modest decrease for February to 50,579, down from 53,041 in January. The measure is running somewhat hot now, and the reason is clear. Challenger reports that 38% of the year’s layoffs have come due to lower oil prices. Obviously, you can expect more of the same in the foreseeable future.

Monthly Productivity & Costs were reported, with the prior month’s data revised sharply higher, offering a positive economic note today. The revision to the prior month’s result makes the current month, which was reported about in line, look good now. Jobless claims edged higher.

THURSDAY’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected	Actual
THURSDAY
ECB Monetary Policy
BOE Monetary Policy
Challenger Job-Cut Report	53,041		50,579
Weekly Jobless Claims	313K		320K
Factory Orders	-3.4%	+0.2%
Productivity	+3.9%*	-2.3%	-2.2%
-Unit Labor Costs	-1.0%*	+3.1%	+3.1%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	42.7
EIA Natural Gas Report	-219 bcf
Gallup US Payroll to Population	44.1		43.9
Fed’s Williams Speaks

 *Revised

Earnings Reports

The day’s earnings schedule features Costco (Nasdaq: COST), one of America’s most important retailers. The day also brings the monthly chain store sales for February for many of America’s retailers. However, you will not find the monthly sales of its most important sellers, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) in that data. So be careful of reading too much into the news of the marginal players.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
THURSDAY
51job	Nasdaq: JOBS
Abraxas Petroleum	Nasdaq: AXAS
Achillion Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ACHN
Addus Homecare	Nasdaq: ADUS
Alon USA energy	NYSE: ALJ
Ares Management	Nasdaq: ARES
Bio-Reference Laboratories	Nasdaq: BRLI
Blackrock Kelso Capital	Nasdaq: BKCC
Canadian Solar	Nasdaq: CSIQ
Central European Media	Nasdaq: CETV
Checkpoint Systems	NYSE: CKP
Chembio Diagnostics	Nasdaq: CEMI
Chesapeake Utilities	NYSE: CPK
China New Borun	Nasdaq: BORN
Ciena	Nasdaq: CIEN
City Office REIT	NYSE: CIO
Cooper Cos.	NYSE: COO
Costco Wholesale	Nasdaq: COST
CTC Media	Nasdaq: CTCM
Demand Media	NYSE: DMD
Diamond Foods	Nasdaq: DMND
Dot Hill Systems	Nasdaq: HILL
E Commerce China Dangdang	Nasdaq: DANG
Emergent BioSolutions	NYSE: EBS
Energy Recovery	Nasdaq: ERII
Esterline Technologies	NYSE: ESL
Exceed Co.	NYSE: EDS
Fidus Investment	Nasdaq: FDUS
Finisar	Nasdaq: FNSR
Forestar Group	NYSE: FOR
Fresh Market	NYSE: TFM
Galena Biopharma	Nasdaq: GALE
Global Eagle Entertainment	NYSE: ENT
Gray Television	NYSE: GTN
HCI Group	NYSE: HCI
ID Systems	Nasdaq: IDSY
Independence Contract Drilling	NYSE: ICD
IRIDEX	Nasdaq: IRIX
Jiayuan.com Int’l	Nasdaq: DATE
Jones Soda	Nasdaq: JSDA
Joy Global	NYSE: JOY
Kroger	NYSE: KR
Ladder Capital	Nasdaq: LADR
Liberty Tax	NYSE: TAX
Marcus & Millichap	NYSE: MMI
Martha Stewart	NYSE: MSO
Methode Electronics	NYSE: MEI
National Western Life	Nasdaq: NWLI
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: NAVB
Orion Engineered Carbons	NYSE: OEC
Osiris Therapeutics	Nasdaq: OSIR
Paramount Group	Nasdaq: PGRE
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: PPHM
Perficient	Nasdaq: PRFT
Prothena	Nasdaq: PRTA
Quiksilver	NYSE: ZQK
Resolute Energy	NYSE: REN
Rhino Resource	NYSE: RNO
Safeguard Scientifics	NYSE: SFE
Sanchez Production Partners	NYSE: SPP
Shanda Games	Nasdaq: GAME
Skullcandy	Nasdaq: SKUL
Superior Industries	NYSE: SUP
Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: TTPH
The Chefs’ Warehouse	Nasdaq: CHEF
Thor Industries	NYSE: THO
Trecora Resources	Nasdaq: TREC
U.S. Physical Therapy	Nasdaq: USPH
US Concrete	Nasdaq: USCR
Violin Memory	Nasdaq: VMEM
Winthrop Realty Trust	NYSE: FUR
Wuxi Pharmatech Cayman	NYSE: WX
Youku Tudou	Nasdaq: YOKU
YY	NYSE: YY

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.