Take Profits in Gold – NIRP Fallacy, Economic Balance, Dollar Recovery Weigh

Thursday’s 4.0% surge in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) was guided by a faulty catalyst. The prospect of negative interest rates in the U.S. is a fallacy getting far too much weight by media and market thanks to Fed caution and congressional member curiosity. I expect that as Fed members begin to make that clear through public engagements, some of this latest luster will fade near-term. Also, some balance should return to the economic outlook, and fear should rise about the next action of the ECB over coming weeks. This should return some muscle to the dollar, and gold should give back some of its gains. Thus, I’m suggesting investors take profits in GLD for now, and wait for a better return entry point at a later date. See the full report on gold here.

Precious Metal Securities	YTD Thru 02-11-16
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-10.3%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+17.3%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	+17.6%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+13.3%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+117%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+34%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+25%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	+30%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)	+39%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+19.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

Gold Haunted by Black Shadows & Green Specters

The movement of gold prices may have confounded some investors recently. Normally, gold (NYSE: GLD) would rise sharply on a disruptive geopolitical concern like the one we saw in Paris. Indeed, the black shadow of terrorism presents gold as a viable asset for wealth protection. However, the dollar also appreciates in flights to quality when a scare strikes at Europe or elsewhere around the world, especially when the European Central Bank (ECB) comes into play. So gold has had the weight of a strong dollar working against it at the same time. This balance of influences has kept gold about unchanged since last month, despite bouts of volatility. See the full report on gold here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

Troubling Outlook for GLD

Investors in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which tracks the price of gold, closed out a tough week last week as gold prices fell against the rise of the dollar. Most of the GLD’s declines were born on Monday last week, when most of the dollar’s gains were captured. The remainder of the week mostly saw gold and the GLD meander against a similar trading pattern for the dollar. The catalyst for each was surprisingly not so much Greece, but rather it was driven by a renewed focus on the diverging paths of the U.S., European and Japanese central banks. Still, I believe there is an underlying and credible shadow of a Grexit hanging over gold now. This week presents more concern for SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) holders as a result, but long-term interests willing to bear near-term volatility should hold on.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

5-Day Chart of GLD at Seeking Alpha

The five-day chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) shows most of the week’s 2.2% loss came at the start of the period. However, a soft new level for the gold tracking ETF held through the remainder of the week as issues that weighed on gold persisted. The GLD even climbed into the close of trading for the week, on hope for a late Friday or weekend restoration for Greece. That appears unlikely now.

The catalyst for the decline in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) this week was clear. The start of the week produced some very hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Powell. His comments piled on to the tone of the close of the week before, when San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke of a September Fed rate hike. Governor Powell suggested two rate hikes would be appropriate this year, with the first coming in September. This set currency trading into motion, and refocused investors on the longer term issue for currencies, which also impacted the price of gold. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) dropped as a result.

The divergence of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policies has been the key driver for dollar appreciation against rival currencies over the past year or so. The Fed, of course, ended quantitative easing last year and is apparently planning for liftoff of the Fed Funds Rate sometime this year. Meanwhile, the ECB and BOJ have only just begun extraordinary easing measures. Furthermore, the ECB may have to go the extra mile soon should Greece drive severe disruption in Europe by defaulting on its debt payments and possibly dropping out of the eurozone. As a result, it was exactly the worst time for a Fed member to be speaking hawkishly and Powell excelled at just that last week.

1-Month Chart of the Dollar Index at Bloomberg

This chart of the dollar index shows the nascent gains of the dollar as it recovered some of its recently lost ground last week. The dollar looks poised to climb higher this week as Greece’s Prime Minister has set plans in motion for a referendum vote, to allow the people of Greece to decide if they will accept austerity in its latest form (best last offer from Eurogroup) or drop out of the eurozone and go back to the drachma. Given that leftists are rising to power in Spain and France, there is good reason to worry about which way Greece will go, as it may serve as a guide for the future of the euro.

As a result, we should see strong dollar strength this week, which weighs against gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). It’s difficult to assess an intrinsic value to gold, and thus the GLD, given that I believe it has important currency characteristics and is mankind’s default currency in my view. As a result, I believe it trades like currencies to some degree, and also like a commodity priced in dollars. So as the dollar appreciates in value, the price of gold should decline, just as the euro and oil should. Supports for the GLD look to be at the $110 level, and then to $105, which I believe would be reached if Greece does exit the eurozone. So the outlook for the GLD is not good near-term because of the issues discussed here. My long-term perspective for gold and the GLD remains the same though - hold gold and the GLD, as eventually I believe the dollar must give way to a developing world. Also, political and geopolitical instability and the perhaps someday regressing world call for the holding of mankind’s default currency long-term.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

GLD - Expect a $5 Move!

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) investors should expect the gold price tracking security to mark at least a $5 move this week. The question is will it be higher or lower? Whatever the GLD does this week, the long-term should be golden. See my full report on the GLD here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

GLD – Why Buy the Gold ETF Here

On Christmas Day 2014, I ended my short opinion on gold and gold relative securities with the publication of this report, Gold Outlook for 2015 – Buy & Hold Here. I also suggested the best way to play a reversal in gold was through the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). But I never got on the record with my SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) followers, some of whom may not be aware of my positive turn. At this point, after a pull-back from a high price point of above $125 in January, and currently trading at roughly $115, I see current value marking a near-term bottom in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), and can suggest purchase of the gold security again. I believe gold prices should stabilize and rise from here as the value of the dollar gives way against major foreign currencies. Though I see some risk that capital could flow heavily into U.S. equities, and potentially draw from gold investments over the short-term, I see gold and the GLD security good to go long-term. Even as the Fed raises interest rates this year, I still anticipate the dollar will give way and allow gold to go higher long-term, as Fed transparency has greatly priced this fact into the dollar already. See my full report on the GLD here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold – When the Russian Empire Strikes Back

Gold was volatile in 2014, mostly due to the unexpected Russian annexation of Crimea and other mischief it stirred up in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian Federation is paying a high price for its actions, on the economic sanctions levied against it by the United States and Europe. While Russia has responded to the harmful penalties applied to it by seeking new economic relationships and alternatives, especially with China, it has thus far mostly refrained from striking back directly at the west. When the Russian Empire finally does strike back, likely when it has significantly skewed its international trade away from the west, it could do significant harm to the euro and maybe even the dollar. That vengeful eventuality I see could send gold soaring to new all-time highs in the future. That would mark a stark contrast against this year’s performance for the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which is down 2.4%. If the GLD were to reach its all-time high again, which was marked intraday in 2011, it would mark 63% appreciation. See my report on Russia and gold here.

Precious Metals Relative Security	Year-to-Date Performance
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-2.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-16.7%
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS)	-2.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-12.1%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	-25.7%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-63.4%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	-44.4%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-13.6%

Christmas Terrorism Event Likely to Spike Gold Prices Higher

Readers - This is the kind of bold content you will only find on an independent blog like ours. This article is critical for gold investors and yet it would never make the sites of major publishers because of its mere prediction of terrorism. Follow our blog using one of the methods available at our home page at WallStreetGreek.com to receive more fearless and relevant content like this.

Gold seems to have nowhere to go but downward now that stocks are again attracting capital investment. However, gold’s downward drift may be abruptly replaced by a spike higher at any moment over the next week or so due to a very relative “event risk.” I see this event risk as probable enough to suggest the closing of the short positions against gold that I’ve supported from September until now. Investors might even consider taking new long stakes in gold or to take stakes in volatility instruments to hedge against risk, at least for the next week or so, despite the heavy weight against gold if the “event” does not come into play.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Christmas Terrorist Attack Could Spike Gold

1-Year Chart of GLD at Seeking Alpha

Since my September 5th report, I have mostly discussed the downside likelihood for gold, and I have been correct, given the 7.8% decline in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) from then through today’s close. Note also that the GLD was actually up approximately 5% on the year-to-date into September 5, a period in which I was often criticized for being bullish gold, especially on the early year capital flow catalyst I saw and the spring-time influence of Russia.

I would certainly continue to favor the downside for gold now given recent central bank actions both here in the U.S. and in Europe and Japan. However, my position is now disrupted by a near-term threat to the short bet against gold. There is a highly relative and significantly possible event risk that could cause a near-term spike in gold prices, and it’s not worth bearing for short investors. As a result, and despite the tendency for gold to otherwise drift further lower near-term, I am pulling my downside call here and my target for the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), at $105, and suggesting investors close short positions for now.

The event risk I write of is that of terrorism potential this week, which I and relative geopolitical experts see as relative during the Christmas period. Over the past week or so, events have occurred in Australia, Pakistan, Nigeria and France, but those regions are not very relative to U.S. investors today. Neither have the attacks by individuals within the U.S. bothered gold or stocks much. However, historical precedence, heightened jihadism in Iraq and Syria, and fresh relevant threats make this worthy of investor attention and preparation, including within our portfolio of holdings today. The historical precedence is the foiled plot of the infamous “underwear bomber” to destroy a commercial passenger jet on Christmas Day 2009. The relevant threat is against airliners around Christmas in Europe and potentially in America. Of course, any terrorism, if Americans feel like it threatens them, would shake up capital markets and potentially disrupt the dollar’s rise against other currencies, and lift gold.

Precious Metals Security	12-22-14	YTD	TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-1.9%	-4.6%	-2.9%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-2.6%	-17.7%	-17.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-5.1%	-12.3%	-8.9%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-15.3%	-68.4%	-60.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	+15.2%	-23.9%	-41.5%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-5.0%	-19.3%	-12.8%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)	-5.0%	-23.5%	-19.0%

Gold relative securities have marked big losses for 2014, with just a week or so more to go for the year. In fact, they continued their slide Monday as stocks continue to rally and draw capital from other sectors of investment, which I suspected would happen and so held off on the writing of this article a day longer. I expect gold to continue to slide, unless and until the event risk of relevance here becomes reality. This is something gold investors both long and short should be aware of and prepared for. While I hope and pray the event risk of terrorism does not occur, I suggest investors currently short gold take off bets here and even consider long stakes, if not hedges in volatility instruments like the iPath S&P VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX). I cover the market and gold regularly, so readers may find value in following our blog and my column.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold is About to Collapse but Also Mark Bottom

I see the price of gold dropping sharply this week, but then marking a bottom within a matter of days. The dollar strength which has impacted gold’s decline most over the last several years should be refueled this week by two important central bank events. But within days of these events, I expect gold to mark an important bottom and to drive higher on a new concern I expect will be raised about the dollar’s safe haven status. See more about this gold report here.

Gold to Sink 11% to 20%

Gold enthusiasts recently got a reprieve on the metal currency’s slide versus dollar strength. The emergence of Ebola in the United States caused some to question the protection of the dollar against global woes and to reconsider gold. However, Ebola fear is fading and the FOMC event today should remind investors of the Fed’s rate plans and reinvigorate the dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) has stabilized lately on what I see as market greed and hope. However, this event could push gold to break into new 52-week low territory, and I see the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) dropping a further 11% or more in 2014 from its current trade. Obviously, this statement is qualified on the assumption of no significant Ebola outbreak or terrorism in the U.S. See more about my view for gold here.

GLD Peers	YTD	TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+1.7%	-9.0%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-2.8%	-22.6%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-29.4%	-62.8%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-11.9%	-23.9%

Ebola - Good for Gold

Make no mistake about it, as the Ebola outbreak progresses, if the situation worsens, especially in the United States, the price of gold will rise. In a recent report, I warned that gold has 8% to 17% more downside in dollar terms due to likely ongoing strengthening of the dollar. However, one catalyst that could change that scenario is a greater outbreak of Ebola in the United States. See the report for more on this morbid gold catalyst. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bearish (NYSE: DUST), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) and Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS).

GLD – The Real Reason Gold has No Support

On Thursday, when the market tanked, television media made a fuss about the lack of safe haven demand for gold. Readers of this column should not have been surprised though, given my regular reminders about the importance of the strengthening dollar against gold and the fact that there was not much tangible danger to run away from Thursday. Though the media was not perfectly accurate about the move in gold, as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) did rise on the day, I continue to dissuade investment in gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) near-term. My reason is the same Fed rate outlook and strengthening dollar driving the commodity since peace broke out between Russia and Ukraine. While it’s possible capital could scare from stocks near-term, I’m not sure it wouldn’t choose cash over gold given the dollar drive. I would not consider a long position in gold before any significant terrorism catalyst or other unexpected event catalyst gave good cause for it. See the full story on gold here.

GOLD – Terrorism Risk is Shockingly Absent from Analyses

The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) has reflected gold’s decline in the absence of Russia from the risk threat spectrum since Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire and plan toward peace. Given the removal of the Russian threat to the euro and potentially the dollar, which I’ve discussed in detail in the past, traders have had only interest rate expectations and dollar strengthening to look toward for guidance. It’s a serious weight against gold now, and should have investors divesting positions. As a result, the GLD security is declining precipitously. But where is terrorism risk assessment in our scenario analysis? Given the threats of the Islamic State and recent discoveries of plots in Australia and against the United Kingdom, shouldn’t we be thinking about this? See my full report on terrorism and gold here.

GLD – Sell Any Gold Strength on the Fed Today

If the Federal Reserve’s announcement today offers the mild tone I am expecting and if the setup of the last several days drives an upward move in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), I would use it to sell stakes. While my long-term perspective remains bullish for gold, I see near-term downside that traders need not bear. The writing is on the wall in big bold print and it is evident in the chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as well. No matter what the Federal Reserve does in its latest monetary policy announcement, it is headed toward raising interest rates. The dollar has already strengthened significantly against some currencies, but not against the broader base. See the full report here.

GOLD - Waiting on Russian Response to EU

The EU announced that a new round of sanctions against Russia would take hold starting Friday. Because of the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the sanctions were held up as Europe debated what to do. The final conclusion of the group of nations was to implement the sanctions despite the new peace in Ukraine, but to review and/or revoke them in less than a month’s time depending on progress in Ukraine. Europe’s mistrust of Russia is evident in the way it went about this, and now the ball is in Russia’s court. It seems that what was meant by the EU to be a power play against Russia has exposed its division and weakness. I believe this leaves Russia more likely to now test the European resolve by countering these latest sanctions with some harsh Russian rebuttal. Such an action would serve to disrupt the euro, lay warning to the dollar and boost the price of gold. Much depends on the patience of Russia and its next move. See full report here. Article should interest SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

Doomsday Preppers - Iran, Russia & China?

The hit television program Doomsday Preppers could do an episode on some new sovereign state members this year. Russia, Iran and China seem eager to join the network of peoples preparing for the end times! All three are now engaged in barter trading, which is a telltale sign of a ‘prepper’. It’s also a signal to buy the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), since fiat currency is no longer en vogue amongst the dastardly dynamos of Asia. I suppose that if tensions keep up between at least two of these three and the United States and Europe, even westerners might someday prefer mankind’s fallback currency. This supports my long-term argument for gold and for traders to buy the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). See this full report at Gold – Russia, Iran & China are Doomsday Preppers.

Gold - Here We Sit Brokenhearted

I think you may know the rest of this two sentence child’s poem that I learned from my best friend John, aka “Stiff” because he later worked at a funeral home. I simply cannot repeat it here, but it’s apropos with regard to where we sit in the SDPR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). Trading in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) has been volatile over the first few days of September thanks to three dynamic factors at play today. The curious actions and announcements emanating out of Moscow and Kiev have had gold teetering back and forth, but I’m in agreement with President Obama’s skepticism about the sincerity of Moscow’s peace interest. The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates and initiate quantitative easing weakens that security against the dollar, which again inflicts pain on GLD holders. In South America, Argentines are demanding dollars in the wake of the nation’s technical default. Each of these factors are helping to fuel an already strengthening U.S. dollar, and at the same time, they are pressuring the GLD. So here we sit broken hearted, and somewhere in Philly I know John is laughing. Read GLD – Here We Sit Brokenhearted here.

EU Sanctions of Russia Matter for Gold

The pot is coming to a boil at the border of Eastern Ukraine and Russia. Do not make the mistake made by many detached western investors who might ignore the sensitivity of gold to this matter. The importance of Russian-Western relations should not be underestimated with regard to their impact upon fiat currencies or gold. Gold and the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) gains meaningful support as a result of Tuesday’s news that the EU is levying sanctions upon Russia. The action marks a key change in policy and the start of meaningful deterioration in Western relations with Russia. Fiat currency globally is threatened, though the dollar is less so to this point, and so gold gains. I again offer you the GLD security as an option for metals relative investment in this environment. For more on this subject, please see our report here.

The Bloody World Cup Runneth Over

Just as it seemed the way was cleared for stocks and blocked for gold with the overcoming of several obstacles that obstructed the first half of the year’s performance, the World Cup hath begun. Unfortunately, I’m not speaking about the futbol event that is currently dominating the attention of the world over. Rather, I’m speaking of the world cup that runneth over with blood. Geopolitical chaos has resurfaced where most thought it had settled, and it has sprung up anew in places long thought won by civilization. And so, while I believe stocks may still have an upward path short-term depending on what unfolds, my view on gold diverges. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) has strong support now to hold current ground, and is poised to take more, because of the uncertainties and developments with Russia and in Iraq. For all the gory details see The World Cup Runneth Over with Blood – So Make Your Cup Golden.

Russia’s War on the Dollar Serves Gold

Russia’s incursion into Ukraine caused a rift between Russia and the U.S. & Europe. It led the West to issue sanctions against Russia and to threaten to apply deeper cutting actions. Russia recognizes the damage the West can do to its economy today, and so our former cold war foe has begun to take action to protect itself. Its actions include the acquisition of gold reserves replacing U.S. Treasuries, and also the use of other than dollar currencies in its and its businesses’ trade settlements. Russian actions may work against the euro and the U.S. dollar, but they should serve gold; because the shiny metal will always be the one currency that has credibility globally, even when the world is not at peace. Thus, despite concerns I’ve expressed recently regarding a capital flow weight against gold and relative securities, this Russian reality offers a solidifying new support against that for gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). See the full version of this report published at Seeking Alpha and titled Russia’s War Against the Dollar will Support Gold Long-Term.

Precious Metal Relative Securities	YTD	TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+4.5%	-9.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-1.3%	-12.8%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+9.0%	-20.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: NUGT)	+13.5%	-70.6%
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS)	+4.8%	-9.5%

The Demon Gold Bears Don’t See

Gold bears celebrated last week as the precious metals sector slipped. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) dropped 3.3%; the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) fell 3.1%; the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX) collapsed 3.5%; the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (Nasdaq: NUGT) cascaded 11.1%; and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) fell 4.5%. I believe gold fell off while the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) climbed last week because elections in Ukraine went off without a hitch and Russia reportedly pulled its troops off the border with its neighbor. But what gold bears are missing here is that the demon, by his nature, will not go away; he will only alter his strategy and return in another way. Russia continues to foment discord within Eastern Ukraine. Rebels took over the airport in Donetsk just after the election. However, they were met by the first (informal) act of newly elected President Poroshenko. Ukrainian forces met with force the misinformed traitors in Donetsk who because of Russian propaganda believe themselves to be threatened by Kiev. Poroshenko has undertaken a fast-moving mission to crush criminal militias and reunite Ukraine. Who’s to say that will not take him to the border with Crimea, illegally taken by Russia just months ago. Russia is now poised to counter any new sanctions against it with a slew of actions of its own, which I believe will threaten the euro. Gold should recover lost ground. See our report on gold.