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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Seeking Alpha

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Jim Cramer is Confused About Nascent Market/Dollar Congruence - Here's the Answer

dollar
Jim Cramer, my former colleague at another financial publisher and who I respect, said on his TV show Tuesday night that “he had no answer” for why the stock market was now rising alongside U.S. dollar appreciation. Well, I have that answer. It’s all about an important change in the economy. For the whole story see Jim Cramer has a Question - I have the Answer.

Security Sector
05-23-16 to 05-25-16
Close to Close
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+2.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+2.0%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+2.7%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
+2.7%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)
+2.1%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)
+2.6%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)
+2.6%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)
+2.1%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)
+2.1%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)
+1.8%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)
+1.0%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)
+0.7%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)
+1.9%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)
+1.7%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)
-6.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
-2.0%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
+3.2%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)
Unchanged

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Greek Facebook

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Wednesday, January 20, 2016

China's Death by a Thousand Cuts Policy

deflation
Published January 7

As I watched events unfold overnight, with China’s CSI 300 Index tripping its first trading curb in 13 minutes and its second after a half-hour of trading and two minutes after restarting, it became clear what the problem was. China is allowing the devaluing of the yuan, but unlike it managed it in August with one fell swoop, this time it is via several smaller devaluations. This death by a thousand cuts appears to be just as painful as the quick slice in August, but it should end soon, possibly even this week. That means that equities can start to recover starting next week, or importantly, when the yuan has reached the point where China will defend it again. Where is that? I’m hearing somewhere between 5.6 and 5.7 Yuan per U.S. dollar onshore; it’s currently at 5.5921. In other words, this is not a forever problem, so there will soon be an important point to buy stocks. However, I do not believe that point is today. As for China, I’ll have some proposals for its best steps to long-term prosperity, along with a purely communist solution in two follow-up reports. See the full report on China's death by a thousand cuts.

Sector Security
01-07-16 11 AM ET
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-0.7%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-1.0%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
-1.1%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)
-0.9%
iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI)
-1.5%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)
-1.0%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. This article should interest investors in Boeing (NYSE: BA), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Digital Globe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Honeywell (NYSE: HON), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm (NYSE: TDG), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Moog (NYSE: MOG-A), Heico (NYSE: HEI), Teledyne (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), Cavco (Nasdaq: CVCO), Skyline (NYSE: SKY), Nobility Homes (Nasdaq: NOBH), Palm Harbor Homes (Nasdaq: PHHM), Mohawk Industries (NYSE: MHK), Interface (Nasdaq: IFSIA), Albany International (NYSE: AIN), Unifi (NYSE: UFI), Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW), Tyco International (NYSE: TYC), Cummins (NYSE: CMI), Kubota (NYSE: KUB), Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR), Dover (NYSE: DOV), ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT), Flowserve (NYSE: FLS), Pall (NYSE: PLL), Dresser-Rand (NYSE: DRC), SPX (NYSE: SPW), Gardner Denver (NYSE: GDI), IDEX (NYSE: IEX), Nordson (Nasdaq: NDSN), Graco (NYSE: GGG), Actuant (NYSE: ATU), Middleby (Nasdaq: MIDD), ABB (NYSE: ABB), Eaton (NYSE: ETN), Nidec (NYSE: NJ), Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK), Ametek (NYSE: AME), Regal Beloit (NYSE: RBC), Thomas & Betts (NYSE: TMB), Woodward Governor (Nasdaq: WGOV), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Deere (NYSE: DE), CNH (NYSE: CNH), Joy Global (Nasdaq: JOYG), Bucyrus (Nasdaq: BUCY), Agco (Nasdaq: AGCO), Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR), Parker Hannifin (NYSE: PH), Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Pentair (NYSE: PNR), Waste Management (NYSE: WM), Republic Services (NYSE: RSG), Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST), Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC), MDU Resources (NYSE: MDU), Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE: MLM), Owens Corning (NYSE: OC), Valspar (NYSE: VAL), Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP), United States Steel (NYSE: X), Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS), CRH (NYSE: CRH), CEMEX (NYSE: CX), Eagle Materials (NYSE: EXP), Fluor (NYSE: FLR), McDermott International (NYSE: MDR), Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq: FWLT), Empresas ICA (NYSE: ICA), Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK), Timken (NYSE: TKR), Kennametal (NYSE: KMT), Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK), Masco (NYSE: MAS), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY), Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR), Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI), EMCOR (NYSE: EME), Snap-on (NYSE: SNA), Toro (NYSE: TTC), GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F).

China news videos

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Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Deflategate Part II – Discussions with Draghi

deflategate
By now just about everyone in America is aware of Deflategate, or the alleged air pressure manipulation of footballs in NFL games played in the Boston area. Well, if I were writing a sequel today, it would have nothing to do with Tom Brady and the Patriots, but instead feature the play in the euro driven by the discussions of an influential central bank quarterback, Mario Draghi. Recently, hot air has had some serious implications for the euro/dollar trade and commodities as well, whether it has come from the ECB or the U.S. Fed. I would go so far as to say it has inappropriately inflated the dollar versus a deflated euro. As a result, I see long positions in the dollar using the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP) extended and recommend their disposal. See Deflategate The Sequel here. Article interests PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UNP), CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), United States Oil (NYSE: USO).

Kaminis is long USO. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

sports news

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Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Why Gold is Not Gaining on Greece

Gold investors may be dumbfounded this Monday morning by the inaction of the precious metal. The Greeks voted “no” over the weekend and stocks opened to turmoil on Monday. Uncertainty around the Greece issue has never been more prominent, and yet the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which tracks the spot price of the metal, was relatively unchanged in the early AM on Monday. The reason is simple, the dollar factor still outweighs the safe haven factor for gold, and so as the dollar gained this morning, the upside for gold was stymied. Thus, it does appear the Greek Gods show no favor to gold. See the report on Greece & gold here.

Precious Metals Relative Security
Monday at Noon
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+0.2%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
+0.5%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
+1.4%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)
+0.1%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT)
+3.9%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)
+0.9%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek businesses

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Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Euro Manipulation – I Feel So Dirty

The euro made a dramatic reversal that seemed to make very little sense Monday, and so I feel kind of dirty. The euro was down dramatically 1.9% versus the U.S. dollar in overnight overseas trading on obvious Greece concerns. Yet, by afternoon trading in the U.S., it was sharply higher versus the dollar. It was unnatural and had a lot to do with the actions of the European central banks plus a strangely timed news bit about Puerto Rico. I feel like my money has been touched inappropriately. See my report on euro manipulation. Article interests CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN), ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO).

Disclosure: I'm long EUO and short UUP as a hedge and play on volatility. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek Christening supplies

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Friday, June 26, 2015

Why ISIS’s New Currency Will Outlast the U.S. Dollar

ISIS currency


The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), known to us as ISIS, has reportedly developed its own currency. Normally, you would expect the currency of a criminal and murderous state which is opposed by most of the civilized world, to be worthless. However, ISIS’s new currency is at least as viable as the dollar and could even outlast it; that is because it’s made of gold and silver.

Greek
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

ISIS seems to have developed a viable currency. Syrian activists recently shared these images of the new currency via social media, but ISIS warned the world it was coming in November. It will be known as the “Islamic dinar” to its tragically misguided followers and perhaps morbid coin collectors. To the rest of us, it’ll be known as gold, silver and copper, and it will carry the relative and respected value of those precious metals (melted down of course).

ISIS is reportedly going to have two gold coins, three silver coins and two copper coins. It’s part of the group’s effort to establish and embed itself as a real bona fide nation. The coin is being modeled after an ancient dinar used during the Caliphate of the Uthman in 634 CE. ISIS cannot trade with dollars or euro, obviously, given its opposition to western civilization. It would not want to justify the civil order that its evil guides seek to displace. Who would believe the dollars weren’t counterfeit anyway? Gold is gold and silver is silver, no matter how bloody the money, and even ISIS should be able to trade with it. The coin shown in the image here is reportedly worth $139, determined by its weight in gold not its place of origin or any central bank manipulation.

How can this golden dinar outlast the dollar? Fiat currency like the dollar is basically given its value based on the viability of the country backing it. It’s a market determined relative value versus other currencies. It’s based on many factors including supply and demand, inflation, the credibility of the country issuing it, and the outlook for that nation’s economy and sovereignty; and some would say the manipulative efforts of its central bank.

The dollar is so strong today because the U.S. economy is the world’s most developed and the U.S. government is the world’s most stable. For as long as America goes unchallenged atop the world, the dollar will remain the strongest fiat currency. And since it is a relative value, it benefits today from weakness in other areas of the world.

However, as the world develops, the dollar must give way to it. Stagnant economies like Japan are still losing ground to the dollar, and the euro has its troubles today, but the development of the world has affected the dollar in a profound manner. In my view, it is the fate of the dollar to weaken over time, and the result of global development. As the rest of the world works its way to an even playing field with America, its currencies will gain ground against the dollar as well. Now, this may be decades or a century in coming, as the world’s governments continue to evolve from monarchies, dictatorships and other forms of inefficient managers of economic growth, but it should eventually come, in theory. I say in theory because before it comes, other disruptions are somewhat probable and could undermine fiat currency across the globe. You know what threats I speak of: war (most likely), global warming, asteroids from space, etc.

In such scenarios where the backing of an economy and government isn’t quite as important or even worth anything at all, what will mankind use to trade in goods and services? It will use a barter system, and in the place of goods, gold as a proxy. So, therefore, ISIS’ new currency could outlast even the all-powerful and supreme U.S. dollar. It was a no brainer for the caliphate wanna-be, and gold should be a no brainer for you and me as well for the same reason. Gold is mankind’s default currency, period.

In today’s society, where we expect everything to stay the same and we won’t allow ourselves to foresee risk of change, gold is influenced by many factors. It retains, however, currency value as evidenced by ISIS of all peoples. Gold is therefore a must own in every portfolio for the long-term. And investors today can own derivatives of gold and silver as well, via the shares of gold miners like Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), and ETFs like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), and leveraged plays for short short-term bets or hedges like the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: NUGT). Nevertheless, there is no perfect replacement for real physical gold for the long-term holder, as evidenced by ISIS’s ability to trade with it. I cover gold and currency regularly and welcome readers to also follow my blog at Wall Street Greek and column at Seeking Alpha.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA).

ISIS terrorism news videos

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Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Merkel vs. Obama - A Game of He Said She Said

Last week, a rumor supposedly leaked from a French government representative indicated President Obama said that the current strength of the dollar was problematic. The dollar weakened on the news, which would serve the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to begin its monetary tightening plans; that in turn serves the economy long-term. The President had to deny ever saying it, given its unpatriotic connotations, but I’m sure many market players still believe he said it; and it has impacted the dollar in my view. This morning in Germany, it seems the German Chancellor fired a salvo back onto the currency battlefield. Angela Merkel said a strong euro was not a good thing for nations on the periphery of the eurozone economy. In speaking on the euro and in sharing her indicated preference for current weakness, the dollar recovered some of that previously lost ground and the battle was balanced again in the stealth currency war between trading partners. Though working now into the late Friday afternoon, the dollar is back near where it started the day. See my report He Said She Said. Article interests ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO), CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares US Dollar Bear (NYSE: UDN). 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

political news

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Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Obama's Dollar Diss & EU Market Manipulation

In the wee hours of a solemn Monday morning as I scribbled my thoughts for followers, sometime around 4 AM EDT, I noted a sharp drop in the dollar index. As I scrambled to figure out what had happened to cause the counterintuitive decline, I found what stank of European desperation. In fact, I noted that a series of public statements over the past couple trading days had illustrated that the Europeans are desperate to prop up the euro against a strengthening dollar. As Greece appears headed for a nightmarish scenario for the eurozone, it shows just how concerning the situation really is. However, no matter how much noise is mixed into the trading, the key catalyst for dollar gains remains and it will drive the dollar higher. See my report on the dollar here. Article interests PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE), ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) and iShares Euro ETF (NYSE: EURS).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

politics

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Dollar Dazed but NOT Knocked Out

The dollar was dazed recently, knocked down by economic data from Europe. Then it got a second kick in the head last Wednesday when rumors of a more conciliatory EU drove speculation for an impending deal with Greece. The move might have some traders confused given that Greece recently seemed headed toward panic; you might have expected the euro to be expressing as much. I think aggressive investors can look past the last couple days’ action and for a dollar rebound near-term. I suspect Greece will not take the first offer while stubbornly holding to demands. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data due Friday might revive concern about the Fed and its rate hike plans. Over the longer term, I do expect the dollar to drift lower, but not until after another push upward. See my report on the dollar here. Article interests Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) and iShares Euro ETF (NYSE: EURS).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Philadelphia Flyers

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Gold, Euro & the Dollar – What’s Next

Gold found some support early this month thanks to worrisome U.S. economic data. The precious metal gained currency against the dollar as questions were raised about the direction of the economy. While the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) was still down for the week thanks to a poor opening to the period on renewed concern about Greece and the euro, economic concern proved an important counterweight. This week presents the likelihood for more of the same mix, so expect volatility. Whichever is weakest, the euro or the dollar, will determine the path for gold. See my article on gold & the dollar here. Article interests PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE) and ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Philadelphia Eagles

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Monday, June 01, 2015

Dollar Resurgence – How to Capture Greenback Gains

The dollar's resurgence of the past week has momentum and is built on substance. Since marking a recent bottom in mid-May, the dollar index spot exchange rate has increased over 4% into May 26 trading. I believe the move was ignited by renewed concern about the euro due to an intensification of concern about Greece. It has been supported by other recent events about the dollar and euro, but it is the Greece issue that I believe gives the move substance and momentum. If you agree, you might use the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP) to hedge against any relative risk or to capture the activity, and/or derivatives of the UUP to speculatively capitalize on the move. See the report on the dollar.

Disclosure: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

stocks

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Friday, March 27, 2015

Gold vs. Dollar – Guess Which is Today's Favored Geopolitical Capital Flight Destination

As capital makes its flight to safety over the geopolitical scare in Yemen, it has its usual two favorite destinations to choose from. Capital tends to favor U.S. treasuries over gold at times like these, but given the richness of the dollar, gold may gain greater favor this time around. See my full report on gold vs. the dollar in a capital flight to safety

Precious Metals & Dollar Relative Securities
03-26-15
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+0.6%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP)
+0.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
+0.4%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

tow truck Brooklyn NY

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Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Gold is Now Impervious to Dollar Pain!

Gold exhibited important strength against a dollar headwind last week that I believe implies the precious metal sits on solid ground here and faces little downside risk. Thursday’s impressive performance against dollar strength says to me that it might be impervious to dollar pain at this level. With my expectation that the dollar should top out soon, I think gold investors can make base camp here and wait for upside catalyst; in other words buy. See my full report on gold and the dollar here.

Security
02-26-15
YTD
TTM
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)
+1.0%
+4.1%
+16.8%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+0.3%
+1.7%
-9.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
+0.8%
+13.1%
-19.7%
Market Vector Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)
+0.8%
+9.4%
-36.0%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
+0.1%
+5.1%
-22.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Iran Israel War

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Friday, February 20, 2015

EUO ETF - I Made You 20% in 3 Months, Now Sell It

In mid-November, I suggested investors buy the ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO). Today I’m suggesting investors close the position and take the 20% profit earned over the 3 month period. I see the factors that have worked against the euro about to reverse, so sell the EUO ETF and take your gain. See my full report on the EUO ETF here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Short the Dollar – Sell the UUP

Traders with long bets on the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP) have enjoyed a great run this year. However, I believe longs should now close the trade and consider shorting the security, as I have, or take a long interest in the security’s inverse pairing, the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN). The dollar index was giving way again in overnight trading after dropping in Thursday’s trade. It’s a move I’ve been waiting on for a short while now. My reasoning has been that the Greece euro-zone concern has been overblown, and that as that became apparent to the market, the euro would recover some ground against the dollar. Peace in Ukraine, however fragile, is just a bonus I had not planned on but supports the play. Go short UUP here; I have done so using March at-the-money and June out-of-the money puts. See our report on short the dollar here.

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short the UUP ETF. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Buy Gold on the Fed Fiddling

gold dollarStocks are down and gold is lower on the latest Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Minutes. The skinny is that the Fed sounded less dovish, and might be less accommodative in the future. It’s counter intuitive, because the Fed would only be less giving if the economy were solidifying. Nevertheless, stocks are lower because there could be less support from the Fed, and the market is not sure the notoriously faulty forecasters are on target. Gold is dropping, because of two reasons. If the Fed is less free with dollars, then the currency should strengthen; and if the economy is improving, than riskier assets should do better. Here’s why I suggest ignoring the Fed fiddling, and buying gold on the dip.

gold analyst precious metals bloggerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers include: NYSE: GG, NYSE: AEM, AMEX: ANV, NYSE: AU, NYSE: AUQ, AMEX: AZK, NYSE: ABX, AMEX: BRD, Nasdaq: CTHR, AMEX: CGR, OTC: CGCO.PK, NYSE: BVN, Nasdaq: DROOY, NYSE: EGO, AMEX: EGI, AMEX: XRA, NYSE: GFI, AMEX: GRZ, Nasdaq: GORO, OTC: MYNG.PK, AMEX: GSS, AMEX: GBG, NYSE: HMY, NYSE: IAG, AMEX: THM, NYSE: JAG, AMEX: KGN, AMEX: KBX, Nasdaq: KGJI, NYSE: KGC, AMEX: MDW, AMEX: MGH, AMEX: NSU, OTC: NJMC.PK, NYSE: NEM, OTC: NBRI.OB, AMEX: NXG, AMEX: NG, AMEX: RIC, Nasdaq: RGLD, AMEX: RBY, AMEX: SA, AMEX: XPL, AMEX: TRE, OTC: THMG.OB, NYSE: UXG, AMEX: VGZ, OTC: WITM.PK, NYSE: AUY, NYSE: CDE, NYSE: EXK, NYSE: HL, AMEX: MVG, AMEX: MGN, Nasdaq: SSRI, NYSE: SLW, NYSEArca: GLD, NYSEArca: GDX, NYSEArca: SLV, NYSEArca: AGQ, NYSEArca: ZSL, AMEX: GPL, NYSE: SVM, AMEX: PZG, Nasdaq: PAAS, NYSE: AG.

Buy Gold



The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published its meeting minutes for its March 13 meeting Tuesday afternoon. You can go ahead and read it, but all you need to know is that stocks are lower because of it. The focus of this article, though, is on gold not stocks.

As suggested in the introduction here, if the Federal Reserve parks its dollar-copter, the next step would be to look toward containing inflation. For this reason, the dollar is soaring +0.7% against the euro Wednesday through late afternoon trading hours Eastern Time. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP) is up 0.5% deep into the afternoon. Much of the foolhardy popular press is blaming the dollar move on a soft Spanish bond offering… silly short-hands…

For the same reason outlined, gold is on the deep decline. Gold futures are off roughly 3.3%; the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) is off 1.9%; and gold miners Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) are off between 5% and 6%. Gold should be on the rise if the global community is once again terrified about a European disintegration via Spanish debt softness and soft data. That would be the give-away for reporters with a clue… Luckily you still have The Greek to fill in the void.

Here’s Why I Would Use this as an Opportunity to Buy Gold:

  1. The geopolitical powder keg remains tightly snug between U.S. warships and the Iranian coastline. Nothing has changed with regard to the Iranian nightmare. Iran has not budged in a significant way, and the West’s sanctions are increasingly suffocating it.

  2. Recession seems to be overcoming Europe, where 20% of American exports are sold into. Wednesday, a Purchasing Managers Index for Europe was reported below 50, indicating the region is likely in recession. Also, regional retail sales fell 0.1% in volume and 2.1% year-to-year. The regional economy shrank 0.3% in Q4 2011, and seems set to mark another quarter of contraction, which would qualify it for recession. Compounding on this, unemployment for the euro zone reached a record high in February.

  3. The European financial crisis has not yet subsided. Wednesday, soft demand for Spanish debt sent the markets into a spin. In a recent interview, Standard & Poor’s Sovereign Ratings Head, Moritz Kraemer said he believes Greece will probably have to restructure its debt again, involving needed aid from its European partners. Obviously, European heads are on record saying the latest bailout would be the last for Greece; now they may be put to the test at a time when their word will be measured. Moritz noted the risk posed by upcoming elections across Europe and Greece.

  4. The American economy has been showing signs of strain, with recent manufacturing data, housing reports and consumer information indicating softness.
Thus, all the reasons gold has climbed over the last few years continue to exist, if they are not intensified. So while foolhardy capital may flow out of gold and gold relative investments Wednesday on a few words from the Fed, I suggest investors look to the weakness as an opportunity to add to positions.

Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, September 26, 2011

Gold Price Factors

gold price factorsAt a time when you would expect gold prices to climb even higher, the shiny metal I call mankind’s inherent currency has dropped along with other asset classes. I’m sure you’ve wondered why, and I believe I’ve got some understanding of the complex forces that are driving gold prices today. These forces have helped to stabilize gold and even quelled the heat around the commodity recently. These latest weeks’ trading have helped us to understand the dynamics of the commodity all the better. Thus, I suspect I can add value to your forecasting.

gold writerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Gold Price Factors



Gold prices dropped again to start this week, despite a swirling storm about the euro and new concerns about a possible U.S. government budget failure. You would expect gold prices to rise in such a scenario, but the metal was instead down roughly $30 Monday. The spot price of gold was flirting with sub-$1600 per ounce in fact, certainly surprising given the last several weeks of chaos. So what’s up?

Some might point to a previously overextended commodity price now seeking mean valuation, or reverting to its mean. This is certainly the most important factor in forecasting gold price movement, since the market only seeks to estimate true value. To understand how a mean reversion could be underway, we must review recent history briefly.

Gold topped out at about $1890 on the spot price (closing pricing), spurred by a frenzied drive to acquire the metal as the US appeared set to record a technical default on its debt this past summer. A quick study of the one-year chart for spot gold clearly illustrates an insecure price level near $1900, established by the spike in the commodity. Once the US Congress mitigated technical default risk, and while the United States even bore a downgrade of its sovereign credit rating by Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP), investors looked around and saw all was not lost. Suddenly the gold price felt expensive, and so this medium term driver is certainly playing a major role in gold price action today. However, a look at the chart seems to show gold at about a medium term trend line, and a $1500 price would seem a secure floor despite its breaking of that line.

Something else is playing a short-term role in driving gold today though. Popular media, based on analyst interviews, regularly reports that there is a force against gold which is capital driven. This force is the theoretical use of gold-relative profits or positions to cover other positions as asset classes dive. It may likewise be that an unbalanced holding of gold in many portfolios is being balanced with capital seeking value in other segments. But, the drops seen in other investment securities pricing does not support this second idea as a main factor in markets.

Another important factor working against gold and all commodities is dollar strength. This has certainly been a stabilizing control on gold pricing. As the euro has found fewer friends while rumors swirl about an imminent Greek default, the dollar has benefited. As commodities are priced in dollars, the strength of the currency has made commodities cheaper in dollar terms. The funny thing is that as the global economy comes under stress, dollar strength has persevered, and this has certainly acted as a counterintuitive and counteracting force on gold pricing.

Over the longer term though, if the United States continues to find intensifying economic and investment pressures, the dollar could be eventually undermined, at which time gold would be free to fly to greater heights. This untethered scenario is the kind that supports gold pricing above $2000 and perhaps as high as $5000 per ounce. Without it though, I cannot find supporting reasoning to forecast new records for the price of gold.

This article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Friday, November 12, 2010

G-20, Divided We Fall

G-20 Divided We Fall
President Obama said, "Instead of hittin home runs, sometimes we're gonna hit singles. But they're really important singles." This was the positive spin that unwound the two-day summit of the Group of 20 Nations (G-20). However, the end result of the Seoul meeting was neither the consummation of an expected trade deal with the South Koreans nor a resolution on the trade imbalance with China. The latter issue weighs heavily on the agenda of the US Administration.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Relevant Tickers: NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: SERCX, Nasdaq: SERNX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FEEEX, Nasdaq: FAEAX, Nasdaq: FBEAX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: FECAX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: XRNEX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: UEPSX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX, NYSE: CEE, NYSE: RNE, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, Nasdaq: ANEFX, Nasdaq: CNGAX, Nasdaq: HNEAX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: AIG, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: DB, NYSE: CS, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: MCG, NYSE: MCO, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: STD, AMEX: GLE, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: GLD, NYSE: XLE, NYSE: XLF, NYSE: BJV, NYSE: SZI, NYSE: BPD, NYSE: IEL, NYSE: PBN, NYSE: CGW, NYSE: LVL, NYSE: FRI, NYSE: PBP, NYSE: RSU, NYSE: RMM, NYSE: REA, NYSE: RFL, NYSE: RHM, NYSE: RTG, NYSE: RSW, NYSE: RMS, NYSE: REC, Nasdaq: PDOWX, Nasdaq: XDPOX, Nasdaq: XDPDX, Nasdaq: NDUAX, Nasdaq: NDUBX, Nasdaq: IDJAX, Nasdaq: NJCRX, Nasdaq: UDPIX, Nasdaq: UDPSX, Nasdaq: UWPIX, Nasdaq: RYLDX, Nasdaq: RYIDX, Nasdaq: RYCWX, Nasdaq: ONEQ, Nasdaq: QCLN, Nasdaq: QQEW, Nasdaq: QQXT, Nasdaq: QTEC, Nasdaq: NASDX, Nasdaq: NDXKX, Nasdaq: POTCX, Nasdaq: DXQSX, Nasdaq: DXQLX, Nasdaq: FNCMX, Nasdaq: INQAX, Nasdaq: MOTAX, Nasdaq: XQQQX)

G-20, Divided We Fall



Greek writerAs quickly as the US could get started complaining, China redirected attention to the US Federal Reserve's recently announced capital markets actions, labeled QE2 by Wall Street. Characterizing China's argument can be simplified to its pointing the finger of blame back at its accuser. While promoted as a strategy to spur economic advance, the Fed's quantitative easing will also serve to devalue the dollar and drive US export demand. If this is not trade war, I do not know what is. And in its quarrel, China has found a strange ally, Germany, which is also struck down by American currency devaluation.

President Obama's singles hitting reference addressed progress in global financial regulation and efficiencies in aid provision to poor nations. More importantly, he may also be conveying his approval for a plan for the G-20, through the IMF, to analyze the effects of trade imbalance on the global economy and local economies. Clearly, the US would benefit from a global acknowledgement, based in economic fact, that China is cheating. By unfairly, and against free market pressure, keeping its currency cheap, China reaps great economic benefits at the expense of other trading partners and competitors.

The argument has grown heated recently, thanks to rising voices back west, including the qualms of Treasury Secretary Geithner, the Democrats in Congress, and the President himself. In the past, a Republican led American government had been cautious about treading on the feet of the dragon, but a new brazen knight has taken over the kingdom by way of valor. Obama is now faced with the challenge of his presidential political career, restoring economic confidence before 2012. Thus, he wields the once forbidden blade for the sake of fairness and the restoration of his kingdom.

The Chinese Yuan has appreciated a bit since the US government began insinuating it would play currency hardball, and certainly following the declaration of QE2 by the independent Fed. Many hopeful global leaders applauded the use of the G-20 forum to work through issues like these, but the fact is that the US and China appear already engaged in a sort of bilateral currency warfare, however cold it may still be. My concern is that given some time to dwell on the US action, and to debate and deliberate it, the EU and emerging nations like India will likely counter US and Chinese maneuvers with actions of their own before any civilized study is concluded. Thus, the race to the bottom will begin. The result: Fiat currency value would dissipate globally, and the gold standard would be re-established.

While the cost of a loaf of bread is already equal to a year's salary in some very poor nations, the inflation that could ensue as currency manipulation is complemented by rising demand for scarce resources in an increasingly globally developing world is terrifying to me. Global cooperation could quickly deteriorate in such an environment, given likely civil unrest and political pressures. Unstable leadership could easily give way then to radical reform, and usher in popular nationalists. Such individuals could be politically wise, but otherwise ignorant or even dangerously selfish. The same mechanisms that allowed Hitler to rise to power would be in place once again, and the angry crowds would cheer for it all.

Instability would replace global organization, and chaos could follow. In such an environment, world war reenters the equation, and given the unfolding situation in Iran, and the importance of its oil reserves to China, a match sits ominously waiting to light the fire.

G-20 forum message board chat

(Article interests investors in: NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: SERCX, Nasdaq: SERNX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FEEEX, Nasdaq: FAEAX, Nasdaq: FBEAX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: FECAX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: XRNEX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: UEPSX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX, NYSE: CEE, NYSE: RNE, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, Nasdaq: ANEFX, Nasdaq: CNGAX, Nasdaq: HNEAX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: AIG, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: DB, NYSE: CS, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: MCG, NYSE: MCO, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: STD, AMEX: GLE, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: GLD, NYSE: XLE, NYSE: XLF, NYSE: BJV, NYSE: SZI, NYSE: BPD, NYSE: IEL, NYSE: PBN, NYSE: CGW, NYSE: LVL, NYSE: FRI, NYSE: PBP, NYSE: RSU, NYSE: RMM, NYSE: REA, NYSE: RFL, NYSE: RHM, NYSE: RTG, NYSE: RSW, NYSE: RMS, NYSE: REC, Nasdaq: PDOWX, Nasdaq: XDPOX, Nasdaq: XDPDX, Nasdaq: NDUAX, Nasdaq: NDUBX, Nasdaq: IDJAX, Nasdaq: NJCRX, Nasdaq: UDPIX, Nasdaq: UDPSX, Nasdaq: UWPIX, Nasdaq: RYLDX, Nasdaq: RYIDX, Nasdaq: RYCWX, Nasdaq: ONEQ, Nasdaq: QCLN, Nasdaq: QQEW, Nasdaq: QQXT, Nasdaq: QTEC, Nasdaq: NASDX, Nasdaq: NDXKX, Nasdaq: POTCX, Nasdaq: DXQSX, Nasdaq: DXQLX, Nasdaq: FNCMX, Nasdaq: INQAX, Nasdaq: MOTAX, Nasdaq: XQQQX)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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