Raise Cash Now as a Precaution to Significant Terrorism

ISIS marks Christians with the Arabic symbol for Nazarene

In a recent article, I suggested investors should look to leverage volatility over the next three months due to a historical trend around first Fed rate hikes. In early August I suggested investors raise cash levels, stop buying dips in stocks, and take volatility instrument interests ahead of what I foresaw would be an imminent market correction. Today, as a precautionary measure for what I see as a high probability of terrorism and risk of severe disruption to securities, I am again suggesting investors have cash stores at the ready. Such stores of cash will allow investors to buy stocks at discount on any event driven weakness, and in doing so, preserve and protect portfolio performance. This is not an all out sell suggestion, as the Santa Claus rally is underway just as we predicted it would be. Stocks should continue to surge higher through the first half of January barring any significant terrorism or other disruption. However, entering the next week or so without volatility hedges and cash stores in place is simply negligent and irresponsible investment behavior.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

I apologize for this report reaching my followers this late, as it was authored and submitted for publishing elsewhere on Thursday. Unfortunately it was not published despite my insistence due to the hot button topic that is terrorism and the normalcy bias. However, I believe many of us understand that this is a real risk to securities, and so I must ensure it reaches you.

5-Day Chart of SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)

The charts are similar across the sectors of the market this week.

Market Sector Securities	Last Week Thru Wednesday
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+3.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+2.8%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+2.5%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+3.0%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+3.0% *

 *Adjusted for dividend

The Santa Claus rally is underway (as we expected), and I am participating in it. My long stake in the energy sector shows confidence in the rally, but at the same time I have serious concern about a potential disruption to it. During this period where investors are buying the worst beaten securities and their favorites for 2016, there could be a near-term setback. Though, the worst beaten should take a lesser hit in such a scenario.

The risk of terrorism is not just a geopolitical or social concern. It poses a threat to our investments in securities markets, and so it is worthy of discussion in this forum. I will not get into the details of the various possible threats against us, but I must note some important aspects of terrorism and the spectrum of its potential impact. We have seen in the past that certain geopolitical events can actually serve U.S. securities. For instance, when the attack occurred in Paris, demand for U.S. treasuries increased due to a flight to quality to American risk assets; gold appreciated immediately thereafter but only momentarily due to strength in the dollar. So that means if terror attacks are concentrated to overseas locations, U.S. securities face less risk relatively speaking.

However, if attacks occur in the U.S., there is a greater danger to U.S. investments given the threat to America, the economy, dollar and companies that operate here. It’s also important to note that the scale and location of attacks play a role on financial securities as well. For instance, far reaching attacks or a series of attacks, for instance to a mall or malls (everyone shops) or to Wall Street or banks (most Americans save and/or invest) is far more threatening than an isolated attack. However, isolated attacks on high profile locations like New York City or Washington D.C. carry far more terror-factor than attacks to suburban locales. The reason for that should be clear; an attack on America’s largest city puts fear in the hearts of all city dwellers. Also, major media reacts in a greater way to issues at their doorstep. Also an attack on our nation’s capitol feels like an attack on all of us. Finally, catastrophic attacks of any sort are catastrophic for our investments. The enemies of America are well aware of these things given their focus of attention.

Risk is heightened now because the potential perpetrators of terror are religious fanatics. Christmas represents to them one of the most important of heretical celebrations of their enemies. New Year’s Eve is likewise high profile because it is celebrated worldwide. As a result, the next week or so, given that it includes Christmas and New Year’s, is perhaps the highest risk period for investors globally. Given the predominance of our Times Square celebration, and the specific threats of ISIS to New York and Washington, it is simply negligent to not be prepared for the possibility.

That means it makes sense to take temporary stakes in volatility hedges like the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) and/ or other similar instruments, similarly to what we did in early August. These can serve to protect portfolios for very short periods of time. It is important to note that these are short-term instruments to be sold on their significant appreciation or the passage of the risk period. I would go so far as to say they are only appropriate for sophisticated investors who understand their risk and can bear it.

Volatility Securities

iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX)

VelocityShares VIX ST ETN (NYSE: VIIX)

ProShares VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VIXY)

ProShares Ultra VIX ST Futures (NYSE: UVXY)

VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX (NYSE: TVIX)

iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXZ)

Inverse or Short VIX Instruments

ProShares Short VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: SVXY)

VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (NYSE: XIV)

VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX MT ETN (NYSE: ZIV)

Otherwise, for the rest of us, it is wise now to have cash stores at the ready to buy securities on any decline following an event. I would not sell gold interests to raise cash, as gold and its proxy securities like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) should in my opinion appreciate in the event of terrorism, and perhaps even if the U.S. is not targeted. If you do have tax losses available to take and to mark against gains or income for the current tax year or even beyond that, you might do so now. Keep in mind that the best time to do that was probably a month ago, and that these securities are likely to rise now in many instances. As a result you might take a little from each holding to maintain interests while also raising cash. Or you might simply send more cash into your brokerage account so that it is ready for use to buy stocks at discount.

Precious Metals Proxy Securities

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)

iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT)

Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)

In a worst case scenario, we can expect a correction to securities markets, Santa Claus rally period or not. So while many of us are participating in the rally and are looking forward to January, we should not be ignoring this very serious risk. Thus, I suggest taking some time now to ensure you have cash in your brokerage accounts at the ready to buy securities at discount if God forbid something bad happens. Buying securities at severe lows on disruptive macro drivers serves outperformance and covers up many mistakes for those of us seeking alpha and perhaps not finding the best of it. I cover the markets regularly and invite relative interests to follow my Wall Street Greek blog and my column at Seeking Alpha. Follow me on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/WallStreetGreek and at Facebook via www.Facebook.com/WallStreetGreek. Join my email list by emailing me at WallStreetGreek @gmail.com.

DISCLOSURES: Kaminis is long VXX and long GDX mentioned in the article. Article may interest Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold is a Responsible Hedge at Times of Terror Risk

Gold and relative securities are a responsible hedge now against dollar exposure because of the risk of terrorism around the September 11 memorial and also on the possibility that the Federal Reserve refrains from rate action. Either would likely harm dollar strength and lift gold prices higher.

FBI Director James Comey said at an intelligence community conference Thursday: “We’ve long found, as you know with al Qaeda, an organization trying to motivate acts in association with that date,” he said. “And we’ve seen some focus on date in [the Islamic State’s] efforts to motivate violence in the homeland.”

See the full report on gold and terrorism risk here. 

Precious Metal Relative

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)

ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)

iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)

ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)

Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)

Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)

Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)

Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)

Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

A Real Good Reason to Hold Gold - Terrorism in America

After speaking with a globally connected friend of mine this morning, I was reminded of a good reason to hold gold. This friend of mine is an employee of a universally known global non-profit. She said to me that she is going to have to stop reading the daily news compilation that is provided to her each morning, because it is simply too disturbing. She expands, “It’s all about ISIS. ISIS is everywhere.” It’s that last part that troubles me most. Yet, in a recent article, I reasoned why 3 recent terrorism events were non-starters for gold. This article does not contradict that piece, because if ISIS is everywhere, then it should not be long before we start to see its sponsored terrorism here in the United States as well. The 3 terrorism events that happened abroad were not a problem for America and so not a problem for the dollar. When that critical fact changes, and some important representatives of our government are indicating that could be as soon as this weekend, gold prices likely find support. Still, minor and occasional terrorism remain non-threats to our economy and the dollar; rather, it would take a significant event or regular disturbances to stop the current and very powerful trend of dollar strengthening. See more on why to hold gold. Article interests Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why 3 Terrorist Attacks Were a Non-Starter for Gold

Last Friday, 3 horrible terrorism events occurred overseas. Yet, gold prices hardly budged on the frightening events or on the warning of U.S. Homeland Security to be on guard through the July 4th American holiday. This defies the popular logic of many gold investors, since gold is seen as the last stop on the safe haven train. So why do you think gold prices hardly budged? See our report on gold and terrorism here.

Precious Metals Relative Securities	Friday’s % Change
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.1%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-0.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-0.4%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	-0.2%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-1.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bearish 3X (NYSE: DUST)	+1.2%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-0.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why ISIS’s New Currency Will Outlast the U.S. Dollar

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), known to us as ISIS, has reportedly developed its own currency. Normally, you would expect the currency of a criminal and murderous state which is opposed by most of the civilized world, to be worthless. However, ISIS’s new currency is at least as viable as the dollar and could even outlast it; that is because it’s made of gold and silver.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

ISIS seems to have developed a viable currency. Syrian activists recently shared these images of the new currency via social media, but ISIS warned the world it was coming in November. It will be known as the “Islamic dinar” to its tragically misguided followers and perhaps morbid coin collectors. To the rest of us, it’ll be known as gold, silver and copper, and it will carry the relative and respected value of those precious metals (melted down of course).

ISIS is reportedly going to have two gold coins, three silver coins and two copper coins. It’s part of the group’s effort to establish and embed itself as a real bona fide nation. The coin is being modeled after an ancient dinar used during the Caliphate of the Uthman in 634 CE. ISIS cannot trade with dollars or euro, obviously, given its opposition to western civilization. It would not want to justify the civil order that its evil guides seek to displace. Who would believe the dollars weren’t counterfeit anyway? Gold is gold and silver is silver, no matter how bloody the money, and even ISIS should be able to trade with it. The coin shown in the image here is reportedly worth $139, determined by its weight in gold not its place of origin or any central bank manipulation.

How can this golden dinar outlast the dollar? Fiat currency like the dollar is basically given its value based on the viability of the country backing it. It’s a market determined relative value versus other currencies. It’s based on many factors including supply and demand, inflation, the credibility of the country issuing it, and the outlook for that nation’s economy and sovereignty; and some would say the manipulative efforts of its central bank.

The dollar is so strong today because the U.S. economy is the world’s most developed and the U.S. government is the world’s most stable. For as long as America goes unchallenged atop the world, the dollar will remain the strongest fiat currency. And since it is a relative value, it benefits today from weakness in other areas of the world.

However, as the world develops, the dollar must give way to it. Stagnant economies like Japan are still losing ground to the dollar, and the euro has its troubles today, but the development of the world has affected the dollar in a profound manner. In my view, it is the fate of the dollar to weaken over time, and the result of global development. As the rest of the world works its way to an even playing field with America, its currencies will gain ground against the dollar as well. Now, this may be decades or a century in coming, as the world’s governments continue to evolve from monarchies, dictatorships and other forms of inefficient managers of economic growth, but it should eventually come, in theory. I say in theory because before it comes, other disruptions are somewhat probable and could undermine fiat currency across the globe. You know what threats I speak of: war (most likely), global warming, asteroids from space, etc.

In such scenarios where the backing of an economy and government isn’t quite as important or even worth anything at all, what will mankind use to trade in goods and services? It will use a barter system, and in the place of goods, gold as a proxy. So, therefore, ISIS’ new currency could outlast even the all-powerful and supreme U.S. dollar. It was a no brainer for the caliphate wanna-be, and gold should be a no brainer for you and me as well for the same reason. Gold is mankind’s default currency, period.

In today’s society, where we expect everything to stay the same and we won’t allow ourselves to foresee risk of change, gold is influenced by many factors. It retains, however, currency value as evidenced by ISIS of all peoples. Gold is therefore a must own in every portfolio for the long-term. And investors today can own derivatives of gold and silver as well, via the shares of gold miners like Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), and ETFs like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), and leveraged plays for short short-term bets or hedges like the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: NUGT). Nevertheless, there is no perfect replacement for real physical gold for the long-term holder, as evidenced by ISIS’s ability to trade with it. I cover gold and currency regularly and welcome readers to also follow my blog at Wall Street Greek and column at Seeking Alpha.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA).

ISIS & Terrorism Risk – It's Time to Think About This

Tuesday a White House press conference was stopped while the Secret Service responded to a bomb threat. Earlier in the same day, part of Capitol Hill was evacuated during a Congressional hearing. The events follow other recent scares, but besides the Boston Marathon bombing nothing really catastrophic has happened. However, a very serious threat has been made against America this year by the Islamic State and it warns of attacks over the next six months. Are we overreacting to these called in threats or are investors ignorantly ignoring it all? Given our porous borders and the malintent of America’s organized enemies, maybe we should have some protection in place for portfolios. See the report on ISIS here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), ADT Corporation (NYSE: ADT), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BCRX), TASER International (Nasdaq: TASR), American Science & Engineering (Nasdaq: ASEI), Cabela’s (NYSE: CAB), Matthews International (Nasdaq: MATW).
 
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Christmas Terrorism Event Likely to Spike Gold Prices Higher

Readers - This is the kind of bold content you will only find on an independent blog like ours. This article is critical for gold investors and yet it would never make the sites of major publishers because of its mere prediction of terrorism. Follow our blog using one of the methods available at our home page at WallStreetGreek.com to receive more fearless and relevant content like this.

Gold seems to have nowhere to go but downward now that stocks are again attracting capital investment. However, gold’s downward drift may be abruptly replaced by a spike higher at any moment over the next week or so due to a very relative “event risk.” I see this event risk as probable enough to suggest the closing of the short positions against gold that I’ve supported from September until now. Investors might even consider taking new long stakes in gold or to take stakes in volatility instruments to hedge against risk, at least for the next week or so, despite the heavy weight against gold if the “event” does not come into play.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Christmas Terrorist Attack Could Spike Gold

1-Year Chart of GLD at Seeking Alpha

Since my September 5th report, I have mostly discussed the downside likelihood for gold, and I have been correct, given the 7.8% decline in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) from then through today’s close. Note also that the GLD was actually up approximately 5% on the year-to-date into September 5, a period in which I was often criticized for being bullish gold, especially on the early year capital flow catalyst I saw and the spring-time influence of Russia.

I would certainly continue to favor the downside for gold now given recent central bank actions both here in the U.S. and in Europe and Japan. However, my position is now disrupted by a near-term threat to the short bet against gold. There is a highly relative and significantly possible event risk that could cause a near-term spike in gold prices, and it’s not worth bearing for short investors. As a result, and despite the tendency for gold to otherwise drift further lower near-term, I am pulling my downside call here and my target for the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), at $105, and suggesting investors close short positions for now.

The event risk I write of is that of terrorism potential this week, which I and relative geopolitical experts see as relative during the Christmas period. Over the past week or so, events have occurred in Australia, Pakistan, Nigeria and France, but those regions are not very relative to U.S. investors today. Neither have the attacks by individuals within the U.S. bothered gold or stocks much. However, historical precedence, heightened jihadism in Iraq and Syria, and fresh relevant threats make this worthy of investor attention and preparation, including within our portfolio of holdings today. The historical precedence is the foiled plot of the infamous “underwear bomber” to destroy a commercial passenger jet on Christmas Day 2009. The relevant threat is against airliners around Christmas in Europe and potentially in America. Of course, any terrorism, if Americans feel like it threatens them, would shake up capital markets and potentially disrupt the dollar’s rise against other currencies, and lift gold.

Precious Metals Security	12-22-14	YTD	TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-1.9%	-4.6%	-2.9%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-2.6%	-17.7%	-17.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-5.1%	-12.3%	-8.9%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-15.3%	-68.4%	-60.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	+15.2%	-23.9%	-41.5%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-5.0%	-19.3%	-12.8%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)	-5.0%	-23.5%	-19.0%

Gold relative securities have marked big losses for 2014, with just a week or so more to go for the year. In fact, they continued their slide Monday as stocks continue to rally and draw capital from other sectors of investment, which I suspected would happen and so held off on the writing of this article a day longer. I expect gold to continue to slide, unless and until the event risk of relevance here becomes reality. This is something gold investors both long and short should be aware of and prepared for. While I hope and pray the event risk of terrorism does not occur, I suggest investors currently short gold take off bets here and even consider long stakes, if not hedges in volatility instruments like the iPath S&P VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX). I cover the market and gold regularly, so readers may find value in following our blog and my column.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

ISIS Terrorism Risk this Weekend – Hedge It

As we enter the seminal American holiday of Thanksgiving, with the busiest travel day of the year Wednesday; major football games all weekend and the Macy’s (NYSE: M) Thanksgiving Day Parade receiving national attention Thursday; and then Black Friday filling U.S. malls, the media and the market are almost ignorant of terrorism risk. Yet, this is perhaps the most vulnerable time of the year for America. So, I suggest investors take risk off temporarily through the holiday weekend or hedge against the heightened temporary risk to stocks.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Security	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+12.3%	+14.7%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+7.6%	+10.9%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+19.4%	+24.1%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+2.2%	+4.5%
Vanguard Total Market (NYSE: VTI)	+11.4%	+14.0%

It has been a decent year, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) up 12.3% and the Vanguard Total Market ETF (NYSE: VTI) up 11.4% showing broad market rise. It probably will end up being an even better year, with the Santa Claus rally looking like its readying to roar. But, there is a risk of disruption to this story this weekend that should not be ignored. There is no reason to bear that risk.

Extensive threats have been made by the Islamic State and its supporters both home and abroad, and I think we agree this is a different sort of evil than even al Qaeda presented to us. Anything is possible and probable as this group of killers somehow finds sympathy among outsiders and psychopaths here at home. Where al Qaeda sought the catastrophic attack target, ISIS representatives have told their supporters to strike anyway, anywhere, anytime and anyhow. It’s a different sort of threat, more easily accomplished by lone wolf types and potentially just as impactful in terrorizing Americans.

The events I mentioned in my opening are high profile and will gather significant attention across the nation and affect almost every American either today or in their actions tomorrow should they be disrupted. Obviously, this group of terrorists is better informed about how Americans live and what they do, and capable of harming our confidence and our way of life. With today being the busiest travel day of the year, terrorists could strike planes, trains, buses and cause panic. With 50 million Americans watching the Macy’s (NYSE: M) parade tomorrow, any sort of attack would garner that many eyeballs and more as CNN and all American media outlets rushed to the story. And any sort of attack on a mall or two or three could affect the American economy in a dramatic fashion, and even put some ailing retailers like Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), which employs tens of thousands of Americans, out of business. Increasingly, terrorists are gaining an understanding of these things, and so the likelihood of their striking at symbols decreases while the likelihood of their striking panic increases.

For this reason, just for this weekend, I suggest investors take risk off. I would sell the SPDR S&P 500 and other market instruments and individual securities. If for tax reasons this does not make so much sense, which will be the case for most investors, you can hedge your market risk by buying new and temporary stakes in various other securities. The table below offers some suggestions, but I would not hold them past Monday’s open, unless an event occurs, in which case I would only hold them for a day or two longer before looking to buy value in stocks driven down by any event.

Hedge Security	11-26-14 10:17 AM	YTD	TTM
iPath S&P VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-0.7%	-36.7%	-39.9%
ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SH)	+0.1%	-13.7%	-16.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.1%	-0.8%	-3.8%
ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS)	+0.1%	-25.6%	-29.8%
ProShares Ultra VIX ST Futures (NYSE: UVXY)	-1.5%	-70.7%	-73.9%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-2.1%	-40.5%	-45.9%

The last three securities in this table here are levered instruments and will lose value over the holding period in the event that nothing happens, so be advised. You will note in the year-to-date and trailing twelve month performances that these levered instruments are only good as hedging tools for short-term holding periods, as they destroy value over the long-term. All of the instruments should appreciate in value if an attack occurs on America, though gold and the GLD may initially sell off before rising if an indiscriminate rush to cash occurs. These should offer some protection to portfolios without the cost of taking tax gains here at the end of the year before buying back stocks to enjoy the rally I anticipate into the end of the year.

You earned your performance this year, so why leave it at risk over this vulnerable weekend? Those managers hedging risk here might see a minor cost to performance if nothing happens, but will definitely see a beneficial divergence versus benchmarks and peers if something does occur. Stocks and the market are at risk this weekend, but no matter whether anything happens or not, America will persevere and stocks would rise again. God bless America and happy, healthy and safe Thanksgiving to you all. I cover the market regularly, so readers may find value in following my column or my blog.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.