Draghi – Democrat, Dictator or Demagogue?

European Central Bank (ECB) Chairman Mario Draghi is moving markets this morning. Senor Draghi’s speech at the Brussels Economic Forum 2016 this morning is entitled On the Importance of Policy Alignment to Fulfil Our Economic Potential and is highly recommended by this fellow philosopher. It’s ironic, because it is a plea for proper policy support from the governing bodies of the eurozone. However, it comes at the same time he is enacting extraordinary measures that extend the central bank’s powers to suspect length. The feeling here is that Mr. Draghi is trying to compensate for the failings of fiscal policy, but the risk is that he will go too far and lose monetary policy balance in the process. His hope for democratic congruence toward progress survives, but his confidence in the union’s ability to get there fast enough is short. See the whole story on Mario Draghi Demagogue here.

Global Sector Security	AM Trade or Indication
SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 (NYSEArca: FEZ)	-1.5%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSEArca: EWG)	-1.9%
iShares MSCI France (NYSEArca: EWQ)	-1.4%
iShares MSCI Spain (NYSEArca: EWP)	-1.1%
iShares MSCI UK (NYSEArca: EWU)	-1.0%
iShares MSCI Japan (NYSEArca: EWJ)	-1.1%
iShares China Large Cap (NYSEArca: FXI)	-0.7%
Major US Investment Sectors
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.4%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.2%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.7%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.4

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article is relevant to Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Total SA (NYSE: TOT), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamericano (NYSE: BLX), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Euro Manipulation – I Feel So Dirty

The euro made a dramatic reversal that seemed to make very little sense Monday, and so I feel kind of dirty. The euro was down dramatically 1.9% versus the U.S. dollar in overnight overseas trading on obvious Greece concerns. Yet, by afternoon trading in the U.S., it was sharply higher versus the dollar. It was unnatural and had a lot to do with the actions of the European central banks plus a strangely timed news bit about Puerto Rico. I feel like my money has been touched inappropriately. See my report on euro manipulation. Article interests CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN), ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO).

Disclosure: I'm long EUO and short UUP as a hedge and play on volatility. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

How the ECB Economic Forecast Clears the Path for U.S. Markets

The key to the U.S. market Thursday emanated from overseas, and I believe helps to clear a path for U.S. stocks to rise moving forward. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, the world’s last divided city, offered a key tidbit from its highly publicized activities. The ECB’s economic forecast is critical to the U.S. market because of the interrelation between the dollar and euro and the U.S. Fed’s interest in it. The news was good for Europe, but how does that translate into American English? See the full report here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV), iShares Germany (NYSE: EWG), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY and GREK. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

THURSDAY’S MARKET – ECB Economic Forecasts Are Most Important Today

Thursday is all about the ECB and the release of its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts. More important than the details of its bond buying program, this data will offer investors insight into how long the program might run (through September 2016 expected). If the euro-area economy is improving as I expect it is, we may start to see the unraveling of the dollar trade. That means higher ground for gold and other commodities, though oil remains pressured by the supply issue. Stay tuned to Wall Street Greek, as I’ll be issuing a report on the energy market and the supply issue later today.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Thursday’s Market

Security	3-4-15	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.4%	2.3%	14.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.6%	2.0%	13.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.4%	5.4%	20.4%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	-0.3%	0.9%	-10.7%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+3.1%	-5.6%	-51.6%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)	+0.1%	1.5%	6.9%
PowerShares DB US $ Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+0.5%	4.8%	18.2%

Economic Reports

Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting weighs heavy on markets, and certainly markets hinged to the dollar. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, but investors are keyed on what the ECB has to say about its quantitative easing plans. More details are expected about the 1.1 billion euro bond buying plan, which is expected to run at 60 billion euros of assets per month.

The ECB will also issue its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts, and this data could be what matters most today. Lately, we’ve noted an uptick in the European broader economy and investors have looked toward that for reason to buy Europe sooner rather than later. If we see improvement in the EU economy, the dollar may have already marked its top, and a shift could begin for euro strengthening. This would mark an unraveling of the most popular trade today, and it would affect all commodity markets and the shares of many U.S. internationals beaten back by the strong dollar. Keep your eye on EU growth and its inflation forecasts. Note also that China revised lower its GDP expectations for 2015 to a still relatively strong 7% rate.

Economic data continues to weigh heavily Thursday, with several more preludes to Friday’s monthly jobs report offering some reason for speculation today. Challenger’s Job-Cuts Report, which offers information about announced corporate layoffs month-to-month, showed a modest decrease for February to 50,579, down from 53,041 in January. The measure is running somewhat hot now, and the reason is clear. Challenger reports that 38% of the year’s layoffs have come due to lower oil prices. Obviously, you can expect more of the same in the foreseeable future.

Monthly Productivity & Costs were reported, with the prior month’s data revised sharply higher, offering a positive economic note today. The revision to the prior month’s result makes the current month, which was reported about in line, look good now. Jobless claims edged higher.

THURSDAY’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected	Actual
THURSDAY
ECB Monetary Policy
BOE Monetary Policy
Challenger Job-Cut Report	53,041		50,579
Weekly Jobless Claims	313K		320K
Factory Orders	-3.4%	+0.2%
Productivity	+3.9%*	-2.3%	-2.2%
-Unit Labor Costs	-1.0%*	+3.1%	+3.1%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	42.7
EIA Natural Gas Report	-219 bcf
Gallup US Payroll to Population	44.1		43.9
Fed’s Williams Speaks

 *Revised

Earnings Reports

The day’s earnings schedule features Costco (Nasdaq: COST), one of America’s most important retailers. The day also brings the monthly chain store sales for February for many of America’s retailers. However, you will not find the monthly sales of its most important sellers, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) in that data. So be careful of reading too much into the news of the marginal players.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
THURSDAY
51job	Nasdaq: JOBS
Abraxas Petroleum	Nasdaq: AXAS
Achillion Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ACHN
Addus Homecare	Nasdaq: ADUS
Alon USA energy	NYSE: ALJ
Ares Management	Nasdaq: ARES
Bio-Reference Laboratories	Nasdaq: BRLI
Blackrock Kelso Capital	Nasdaq: BKCC
Canadian Solar	Nasdaq: CSIQ
Central European Media	Nasdaq: CETV
Checkpoint Systems	NYSE: CKP
Chembio Diagnostics	Nasdaq: CEMI
Chesapeake Utilities	NYSE: CPK
China New Borun	Nasdaq: BORN
Ciena	Nasdaq: CIEN
City Office REIT	NYSE: CIO
Cooper Cos.	NYSE: COO
Costco Wholesale	Nasdaq: COST
CTC Media	Nasdaq: CTCM
Demand Media	NYSE: DMD
Diamond Foods	Nasdaq: DMND
Dot Hill Systems	Nasdaq: HILL
E Commerce China Dangdang	Nasdaq: DANG
Emergent BioSolutions	NYSE: EBS
Energy Recovery	Nasdaq: ERII
Esterline Technologies	NYSE: ESL
Exceed Co.	NYSE: EDS
Fidus Investment	Nasdaq: FDUS
Finisar	Nasdaq: FNSR
Forestar Group	NYSE: FOR
Fresh Market	NYSE: TFM
Galena Biopharma	Nasdaq: GALE
Global Eagle Entertainment	NYSE: ENT
Gray Television	NYSE: GTN
HCI Group	NYSE: HCI
ID Systems	Nasdaq: IDSY
Independence Contract Drilling	NYSE: ICD
IRIDEX	Nasdaq: IRIX
Jiayuan.com Int’l	Nasdaq: DATE
Jones Soda	Nasdaq: JSDA
Joy Global	NYSE: JOY
Kroger	NYSE: KR
Ladder Capital	Nasdaq: LADR
Liberty Tax	NYSE: TAX
Marcus & Millichap	NYSE: MMI
Martha Stewart	NYSE: MSO
Methode Electronics	NYSE: MEI
National Western Life	Nasdaq: NWLI
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: NAVB
Orion Engineered Carbons	NYSE: OEC
Osiris Therapeutics	Nasdaq: OSIR
Paramount Group	Nasdaq: PGRE
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: PPHM
Perficient	Nasdaq: PRFT
Prothena	Nasdaq: PRTA
Quiksilver	NYSE: ZQK
Resolute Energy	NYSE: REN
Rhino Resource	NYSE: RNO
Safeguard Scientifics	NYSE: SFE
Sanchez Production Partners	NYSE: SPP
Shanda Games	Nasdaq: GAME
Skullcandy	Nasdaq: SKUL
Superior Industries	NYSE: SUP
Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: TTPH
The Chefs’ Warehouse	Nasdaq: CHEF
Thor Industries	NYSE: THO
Trecora Resources	Nasdaq: TREC
U.S. Physical Therapy	Nasdaq: USPH
US Concrete	Nasdaq: USCR
Violin Memory	Nasdaq: VMEM
Winthrop Realty Trust	NYSE: FUR
Wuxi Pharmatech Cayman	NYSE: WX
Youku Tudou	Nasdaq: YOKU
YY	NYSE: YY

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.