Negative Feedback Loop - Stock Market Hurt Economy in Early 2016

This is a groundbreaking report presenting an original idea not yet being discussed across media about why early year economic data being reported now has soured.

On Monday when consumer spending data was reported, it showed a disappointing result for February and a downward revision to January. The news disappointed investors and raised speculation about the well-being of the economy, even after the upward GDP revision for Q4 reported last week. I believe the decrease in economic activity at the start of this year was directly due to the disruption to the stock market in January and February, which concerned Americans enough to limit their spending habits. There are signs of it in other data as well, but it is apparently reversing in March, not coincidentally as stocks have recovered. February’s poor data is the result of a negative feedback loop, which hopefully does not develop into a downward spiral. If investors can understand this argument, it should go a long way to preventing that end for stocks. See more about the Negative Feedback Loop here.

Security Sector	03-29-16 11:30 AM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.4%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.4%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.1%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	-0.8%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	+0.5%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-1.1%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	-0.0%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	+0.2%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.1%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	+0.1%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-0.9%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-0.3%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-0.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.6%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-3.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Volatility Hedges are Timely & Cheap Again – Consider the VXX

When I first suggested investors consider volatility hedges last August before the stock market correction, the comment section of the article was full of criticism. I suppose that was understandable, given that the critics didn’t foresee the correction I anticipated. Since last summer’s event, the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) has mostly traded above where I first recommended it, though I told holders to sell it at a profit since. Volatility hedges like the VXX are indeed ironically risky instruments that are not to be held for the long-term. But today, I once again view them timely and appropriate tools for sophisticated investors to use for portfolio protection. Fortunately, they are also much more affordable than they were just a few weeks ago. See the full report on why you should consider volatility hedges again here.

Volatility Securities

iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX)

VelocityShares VIX ST ETN (NYSE: VIIX)

ProShares VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VIXY)

iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXZ)

Extra Leverage, Higher Risk

ProShares Ultra VIX ST Futures (NYSE: UVXY)

VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX (NYSE: TVIX)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

Sell Stocks Right Now

The shocking terrorist attacks in Brussels are raising concern about Europe, firing up relative dollar strength, and turning back oil prices – that is enough to stop the nascent stock market rally. I’m suggesting investors raise cash, buy volatility hedges and seek safety in utilities. On the day of the events in Brussels, equities in the U.S. seemed to brush it off. However, it has become apparent to me that the courage of U.S. equity holders could be lost if oil declines near-term as I suspect it will. Here’s what I see happening. See the full warning to sell stocks now right here.

Security Sector	03-23-16 Late PM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.7%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.9%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-1.5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.8%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	-0.6%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	-0.6%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-2.3%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	-0.7%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	-0.7%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.0%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	+0.7%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-1.4%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-0.7%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+4.2%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-2.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-4.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Just How High Can Stocks Climb? – Part II

In Part I of this series, I indicated that the Fed’s surprisingly dovish tone and its soft Fed Funds Rate forecast cleared a path for stocks to climb even higher. “Even higher,” means after coming back from mid-February depths and marking break-even for the year on St. Patrick’s Day as we suggested they would in early March. But just how high can stocks climb? I expect that will have everything to do with Fed credibility, or the lack of it now, and economic data. See the full report on how high stocks can climb here.

Security Sector	03-22-16
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.2%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.1%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.1%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	-0.3%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	+0.0%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-0.5%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	+0.9%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	-0.2%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.7%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	-0.3%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-1.1%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-0.6%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-1.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.3%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-0.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

How High Can Stocks Run Post Fed? – Part I

Many investors, including yours truly, were surprised by the tone of the Fed this week; not by its actions, no not at all, but by its tone. While its pause in rate hikes was expected, its dovish tone accompanying its softer Fed Funds Rate forecast have cleared the way for risky assets (read stocks) to run higher. But how much higher can they run? See the full report on how high stocks can run post Fed here.

Security Sector	03-18-16 Intraday
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.6%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.3%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.6%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+0.3%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+1.0%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	+0.2%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-0.5%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	+0.4%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	+0.2%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	+0.2%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	+0.0%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	+0.5%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	+0.9%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-1.7%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.3%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+1.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Stock Market Warning - Fed Dot-Plot Will Surprise People

After recommending stocks at their turn in February, I am now seeing the first real challenge for equities this week. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates, however, investors have not yet honestly considered what the Fed’s dot-plot forecasts will show for rate expectations this year. I expect it will be a forecast that is not consistent with what the market expects, and stocks face a setback as a result. Energy prices could also be impacted as the dollar strengthens and due to Fed braking. However, financial sector strength on the same news should eventually help to support the broader market, as should the fact that the Fed is probably not acting on rates this month. For this reason, I’m simply warning investors here to be prepared for volatility and consider hemming and hedging some long bets heading into the data, especially in certain riskier sectors. Raising some cash now and adding portfolio protection is also appropriate in my estimation. However, gold is not favored, due to expected dollar strength on the Fed trajectory. See the full Warning on Stocks here.

Security Sector	03-15-16 Early Indication
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.6%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.3%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.8%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.7%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	-0.9%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	-0.3%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-1.3%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	-0.8%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	-0.5%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.3%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	-0.2%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-1.3%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-0.9%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+3.3%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-1.7%

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