Gold Prices Today – Euro Area Deflation & Janet Yellen Pose Threat but for How Long?

Spot Gold Price at Kitco.com

A double dose of trouble threatens gold prices today, as euro-area inflation data came in soft this morning and Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak later this afternoon. Each of the two factors serves dollar strength, which is threatening to gold price appreciation. But after close study of the data and realization of other issues, we are suspicious of the staying power of the factors against gold. See the full report on today's gold prices here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-29-15 Close
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.4%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	-0.4%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	-0.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.2%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+0.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+0.7%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+0.2%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+1.5%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	-0.5%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-1.6%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	-0.1%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	-0.8%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+0.3%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	+0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Dudley Did Us in on Monday

New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley was the voice of reason during the early days of the market correction. His voicing of concern about global economic issues and market volatility served to stabilize stocks in August. However, on Monday he sounded a little different. In his interview with the Wall Street Journal Dudley shared his expectation that a Fed rate hike will likely still occur sometime this year. The market environment is just not conducive to that kind of talk at the moment, and so I believe the statement played a critical role in further destabilizing stocks. See the full report on Dudley's impact.

Sector Security	Tuesday 09-29-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.04%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.4%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.7%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.05%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)	+0.4%
iShares China Large Cap (NYSE: FXI)	-0.1%
iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX)	+0.1%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+0.6%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Rally Cut at the Knees but it Still has Legs

When the Federal Reserve Chairperson addressed a group in Massachusetts Thursday evening she reiterated the message of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of a week prior. The threat of an October interest rate action was thus reinforced, and the dollar rebounded. In effect, Janet Yellen offset the impact of the passing of ECB events last week without any new action by the European Central Bank, which had stabilized the euro versus the dollar and given gold lift. I still expect intensification of government shutdown concern this coming week and beyond to weigh on the dollar, and also for the October Fed meeting to pass without rate action, giving gold support. The risk to this view is that the Fed raises rates in October, which I believe would be a temporary setback for gold that could run into 2016 until investors begin to again anticipate European and global recovery and a normalizing dollar. If the Fed refrains from action in October, as I expect it should, precious metals prices should muster a run higher into November before again facing a Fed driven challenge. Long-term metals investors can expect a more sustainable upward trajectory to start in 2016 (likely second half), when the ECB is likely ready to end its quantitative easing program or if some other unforeseen factor comes against dollar strength. See the report on gold here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-25-15
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.6%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	-0.5%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	-0.6%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-02%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	-0.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-1.7%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	-2.3%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-4.0%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-1.0%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	-2.0%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+0.2%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	-0.8%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	-5.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Pro Investor Who Predicted Today's Turn in Gold Says it Goes Higher from Here

While hoping followers didn’t miss our call that Thursday (post ECB) would mark a good entry point for gold ownership, we’re reiterating today that gold is good to go higher from here. The buildup to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting drove the euro lower versus the dollar as expected and was a setback for gold. However, yesterday we got a hint in his testimony that Draghi would not add to the ECB’s extraordinary measures today and so gold got clearance to turn upward. Today the ECB did not further act, and the dollar is giving way with gold gaining sharply. I’m suggesting gold goes higher from here on continued dollar decline and increasing concern about the U.S. government shutdown next week. Increasing speculation about the Fed holding off on rate action in October will also serve gold. Thus, gold is good to go higher from here. See the full bullish report on gold here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-24-15 Midday
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+2.3%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	+2.4%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	+2.3%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+2.2%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+2.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+6.0%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+4.7%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+16.4%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	+6.3%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	+5.5%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+6.6%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+5.0%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	+7.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

When Stocks Should Turn Higher

Investors were a bit confused by the immediate action in stocks after the Fed meeting last week. Most financial media I watched since has only made matters worse by misinterpreting the catalyst behind the market’s reversal after it marked intraday highs last Thursday. Now, based on statements of the Fed Chair and other Fed members, it appears the Fed itself may be confused as to how markets perceive its actions. Friends, stocks are not burdened today by the fact that the Fed did not raise interest rates, but rather by their leaving October on the table and indicating a rate hike could occur at almost any moment. As a result, uncertainty remains for this market until the next Fed meeting in October. Between then and now, we should expect to see volatility exacerbated by a likely shutdown of the American government on budget matters and threatening data from overseas. Still, from mid-October or after the government problem is resolved, the market will also find a better environment due to a shift in seasonal capital flows. As a result, I anticipate stocks will rally from sometime in October through November well enough to return paper losses to investors who had not sold stocks during the crisis. See our full stock market outlook report here.

Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG, Nasdaq: GOOGL), GE (NYSE: GE), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), Citigroup (NYSE: C). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. Kaminis is long SPY. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Gold Outlook

A golden path has just been paved for gold investors, but it is full of obstacles. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off on interest rate liftoff, with all indications pointing toward non-action at least until December and possibly longer in my opinion, is highly supportive to gold (NYSE: GLD). Gold would be poised to move higher as a result of the removal of the dollar block against it. (article authored 9-21) But be careful betting on it at the start of this week, as anticipation of potential ECB action could set a short-term speed bump. I see hope in ECB action eventually finding letdown, and gold benefiting again from that and intensifying concern about a potential government shutdown in the U.S. Thereafter, though, investors will begin propping up the dollar and penalizing gold on October Fed meeting worry. The next month, therefore, is a complex one for gold. See the full report on the gold outlook here.

Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Fed Meeting Preview – My Take

There is a great deal of uncertainty around this Fed rate decision, and it may not only be in the marketplace. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) itself will probably show division when it comes to its conclusion today. I think the market’s confusion was evident by the last two days of trading, which I discuss in more detail herein. Markets are unsure for good reason, given previous Fed forecasts and the outside influences upon the two Fed mandates of managing monetary policy for employment and inflation. While everything is on the table today, it should be a good day for stocks given what we have priced in already – I think. Obviously, everything depends on what the Fed actually says and does. It’s quite ironic that this Fed, which has made such strides toward transparency, finds itself in such a confused situation. See our full Fed meeting preview here.

Sector Security	Wednesday 09-16-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.85%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.84%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.56%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.82%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.28%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+1.3%
iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond (NYSE: TLT)	-0.38%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

How Do You Spell Relief? How About SHORT-LIVED

Global shares traded sharply lower overnight Tuesday on weak China data until European GDP data was reported better than expected. That news, and a post-Labor Day euphoric return for many Americans, had a relief rally stirring on Wall Street Tuesday. While the day’s energy took stocks right back up to their post correction plateau, it will most likely be defined by one word: short-lived. That is because the weighty factor behind the volatility remains somewhat in place. One factor could change that, though, and it is worth watching. If the Fed indicates it will not act to raise interest rates in the near-term, implying through the October meeting, then stocks could march right back up to their year-to-date tops. That is doubtful, but increasing belief in a sidelined Fed certainly helped shares Tuesday. I anticipate continued volatility and wild swings until we have clarity about the Fed and/or until November for reasons discussed herein. See this full report on the stock market relief rally here.

Global Stock Sector	09-08-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+2.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+2.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+2.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+2.3%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+2.5%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-8.7%
iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV)	+2.9%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)	+2.2%
iShares China Large Cap (NYSE: FXI)	+7.1%
iShares MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWJ)	+2.3%
iShares Germany (NYSE: EWG)	+3.6%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.03%
iPath S&P GSCI Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+0.1%
iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT)	-1.5%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long FXI, VXX. Kaminis is short OIL. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Crash Part II – 2nd Leg Lower Starts Here

From the investment professional who predicted the August 2015 stock market crash. 

Stocks should benefit Thursday from ECB catalyst, but I suggest investors avoid the temptation to purchase equities now as Friday’s jobs data weighs heavily. The European Central Bank is likely to say something supportive for stocks today. However, by the close of trading, the weight of the pending Employment Situation Report due Friday morning, upon which perhaps a U.S. Fed Funds Rate hike hinges, should renew market worry. The event is capable of stirring selling as already flighty investors take risk off into the weekend. Broadly speaking, investors should still get a better entry point for stocks as a result of the uncertainty around the Fed move and the global growth question. See the full report of the Stock Market Crash Part II here.

European Equities	%  Off 52-Week High
iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV)	-13.9%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)	-13.1%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)	-17.4%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)	-15.5%
iShares MSCI United Kingdom (NYSE: EWU)	-18.8%
iShares MSCI France (NYSE: EWQ)	-11.7%
iShares MSCI Italy (NYSE: EWI)	-11.4%
iShares MSCI Spain (NYSE: EWP)	-25.0%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK)	-56.1%

Market Sector & Select Stocks	% Off 52-Week High
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-8.6%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-10.8%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-9.2%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-11.8%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-8.9%
GoPro (Nasdaq: GPRO)	-58%
Facebook (Nasdaq: FB)	-9.4%
Ambarella (Nasdaq: AMBA)	-36.5%
Five Below (Nasdaq: FIVE)	-20.6%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Kaminis Predicted the Stock Market Crash & is Warning Again

5-DayChart of SPY at Seeking Alpha

In the last few reports authored before I left for my vacation roughly two weeks ago, I presciently advised investors to: avoid new stock purchases even on dips in the market; move heavily to cash; and to hedge risk with a volatility instrument. As a result of my own bet on risk, I turned an important percentage gain last week as most investors saw portfolio values decline sharply. With consideration for my near 6,000 followers, I thought an update would be appropriate at this critical juncture to advise investors of how I’m thinking about things now and what I’m doing and preparing to do next.

In the days preceding the stock market correction, Kaminis warned followers via a series of reports.

• August 19-24 - Stock Market Crashed 11% 
• August 18: Minefield of Risk (Recommended preparation for imminent market correction)
• August 13: Investors Dilemma – Do Not Blindly Buy the Dips Any Longer 
• August 12: One Security to Save us All (Recommended purchase of VXX volatility investment instrument as a hedge against market correction)
• August 10: The Herd is in a Hurry to Get Butchered (Advised investors not buy rallies)
• August 9: Warning on Stocks – Keep Your Powder Dry (Suggested investors go to higher levels of cash)

See what I'm suggesting investors do next here: Investor Who Predicted Stock Market Correction of 2015 Has New Warning 

Article interests: SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT), iPath S&P GSCI Oil (NYSE: OIL).

Disclosure: Kaminis is long UUP, NUGT. Kaminis is short OIL & is hedging long bets in NUGT & UUP with minor short positions in each due to expectation for volatility. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. 

This Market is a Minefield of Risk

This volatile period for the market will continue with a minefield of risk this week. Investors will have several relatively important factors to weigh while determining the market path, including the Fed meeting minutes and Consumer Price Index (CPI). I continue to warn investors to avoid the inclination to buy the dips at this point and hold substantial cash for a stock sale over the near-term, at which point long-term investors can add to holdings. See this full stock market warning here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).