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Wall Street Greek houses the insights of Markos N. Kaminis, a leading Wall Street analyst and accredited financial columnist. The blog is an expert authored, syndicated business news resource, reaching reputable publishers and private networks. Our columnists offer value-added color to economic matters, stock and financial market news, and other interests of our affluent readership.


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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Greece Calls Europe's Bluff

poker bluff
Mario Monte, the Italian Prime Minister, made some market supporting statements last week which must have sounded familiar to readers of this column. Mr. Monte said some things Greeks have long been saying as well, albeit at the top of their lungs while being beaten back by police batons. He said the troika of the IMF, European Union and European Central Bank had been too hard on Greece, demanding drastic change of the Greeks over a period much shorter than appropriate. The short-term disruption of this radical change has been more detrimental than the long-term benefit it aims to achieve, and so indigestible by the Greeks. As a result, the Greeks have spoken, and finally, European ears are listening.

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Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Article is relevant to Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamericano (NYSE: BLX), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Greece Snuffs EU Bluff


You might remember a series of articles written here over the last few years on the topic of the impossible austerity plan shoved down the throats of the Greeks. It took more than words, though, to gain the attention of Greece’s European masters. It took more than uprising even. It took the action of Greek voters, who so vehemently opposed austerity as to lift a radical political coalition into a position of influence. With political polls conflicted now as to what could result when a second election proceeds in June, the market has begun to price in a Gr-exit, or Greek exit from the euro-zone. Likewise, Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) and Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP) have begun to account for what might follow in Spain, Portugal and Monte’s Italy. Suddenly, and not coincidentally, the impossible is possible for Europe.

The idea of offering euro-bonds, a unified action that at least the Germans had ruled unconstitutional, is now being openly and seriously considered. But it took the rise of the “little people,” as one politician notoriously labeled them a few years back, to force the hand of power in favor of financial fairness. When Greece’s newest political voice, Syriza, said the Europeans were bluffing regarding the required nature of their prescription for Greece, hardly anyone believed them, and yet today it looks as though they were right.

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It reminds me of an interesting political ploy tried by the Greeks not long before. Just days before PASOK’s persecuted leader, George Papandreou said the Greeks deserved a referendum before inheriting the weights of austerity, we wrote that the Greek people should determine their own fate. And after the PM had played his poker hand, we said it might not be the political suicide it seemed to be, but instead genius, because it would force the Europeans to show their true hand. That same truth is apparent again today, and it reflects a weaker European position than what they had bluffed they held.

In the end, it looks as though the path was always laid out, but that political patience would have to persevere until the populace of Europe was ready to venture down it. What is happening is a better bonding of Europe, through the catalyst of crisis and the glue of fear. As the region ties itself together, though, I worry it will later more easily drown. This is because, while I understand the construct of the plan is to solidify the union, I believe fiat currency will be more easily weakened in the process. This is because I see another catalyst ahead that only a fearless visionary might venture to present now, which will unravel this best laid plan. However, this is better the topic of another story.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, May 09, 2012

The Solution for Greece, Europe & the Global Economy

Alexis Tsipras Syriza
From the source that told you European change still threatened stocks the day of the confounding market rally on the election results in Greece and France, today I am advising that the next move may be higher. What’s killing stocks these last few days is the wild speak coming from the Greek Syriza Party, which is currently attempting to form a government. What may save stocks, probably only temporarily, will be the inability of Greece’s Radical Left Coalition to form a government, which means the Greeks will get a second chance at deciding their fate in June. Where that leads should be at least clearer, though the direction could be either.

Syriza leader
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers include: Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP).

Solution for Greece

Also, the ramifications of the Greek decision might not be as clear, traumatic or destructive as people, pundits and even economists describe. For instance, if the euro-zone were to fail completely, which is not as unlikely as the entrenched make it to seem, Greece’s early exit might prove helpful. On the other hand, a fascist state and/or weak leadership would find difficulty navigating the global economic environment. You see, nothing is perfectly black or white in this world, however we may attempt to simplify, and everything can be colored. Furthermore, the best solution for Greece, Europe and the global market should offer wise economic strengthening combined with sensible budget management, or the gray in between today’s two arguments.

Some might say that the premature celebration of Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras has done more to terrify global markets and perhaps even the Greeks who voted for him than to bring positive change so far. The sum I speak of would include PASOK and New Democracy leadership, who will now surely employ fear tactics to retrieve votes lost in the first election. Greece’s citizens have only to look at their stock market, with the Athens Stock Exchange General Index collapsed over the two days following the anomalous trade immediately after the election. The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) is down 13% from May 4th. The iShares S&P Europe 350 Index (NYSE: IEV), down another 1.5% into midday Wednesday, has been edging down on the omens of election polls for weeks. Though, Europe’s slipping into broad-reaching recession has certainly played a role in that.

While a secondary victory for the establishment might ease market concerns, it’s certainly not a given. On the other end of the spectrum, the disgruntled and disgusted Greek people may line up behind Syriza now. If the many tentacled monster of Greek dissatisfaction were to more perfectly unify, then it is possible Syriza could win the majority. In that case, with the extra 50 seats in Parliament given for the win and the assistance of other parties, it might also form a government. The result of that is clear, based on the emboldened braggadocio of Tsipras. He has stated he will tear up standing agreements with the troika, whose response has also clearly been laid out. It would be the end of the relationship between Greece and Europe, or at least the euro-zone. Greece would default on its debt and return to the drachma.

In my view, and reiterating yet again, neither of the two extremes needs be the fate of Greece. If the global community which makes up the IMF, and the European Union, intend for Greece’s realistic revival, they would set simpler terms for Greece to payback its debt. An extension of the timeline to payback would allow Greece to more gradually implement sensible austerity measures while also finding creative growth solutions. Instead, Greeks have had deep destructive austerity shoved down their throats. The economic feedback would not be harsh my way, and upheaval in Greece would die down. Its tourism industry would recover, and its economy would find its way toward expansion. With that result, Spain, Italy and Portugal would gain time to restore their own fiscal soundness, and the euro-zone likewise should solidify. Perhaps, then, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) might be in the green instead of red like they were Wednesday.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Why Stocks Celebrated Disruptive European Elections

celebration
Based on the action of stocks Monday, it would seem investors favor the possibility that Europe might finally be rid of Greece. Or it may be that investors have seen the light, and have finally realized that the age of austerity was a dark one. Or, perhaps change of any sort would have been celebrated by a distressed market.

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Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relevant tickers: NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQ, NYSE: GREK, OTC: HLTOY.PK, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: VGK, NYSE: EWG, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: EWQ, NYSE: DB, NYSE: STD, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: RY, NYSE: BFR, NYSE: IRE, NYSE: BMO, NYSE: CM, NYSE: ING, NYSE: C.

It's a Celebration?

European shares were mostly higher Monday, even after Greeks unseated their socialist rulers, PASOK, the ushers of austerity. So it would seem that more than their fear of a break down in confidence in the EU (that might drive Spanish and Italian bond yields higher), investors maybe worry about keeping a lumbering Greece within the group. But with France electing a socialist, who seems intent on leveling the playing field between the rich and poor, and who does not favor austerity, it would seem maybe something more important is afoot.

Bucking the trend, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK), Hellenic Telecommunications (OTC: HLTOY.PK) and Greek shares generally tumbled, as neither did the New Democracy party gain clear control. The result was likely due to the new democrats’ role in the current catastrophe. Instead, the Radical Left Coalition, or Syriza, finished second in Parliamentary voting. Anti-austerity parties, including even an anti-immigration organization, won seats at the cost of the mainstream, as Greeks expressed their frustration with austerity clearly.

But why are European shares higher, given that Greece could theoretically now reject the austerity prerequisites of European and IMF aid. The Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK) rose 1% Monday, and the iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV) was up 0.8%. The iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG) gained 0.5% and Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) rose 1.6%. The popular view seems to be that Francois Hollande, the new French leader, might listen to the reason of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and others now that the election is over. However, I say there is more to it than that.

I think the market has spoken in its efficient and infinite wisdom, and what it is saying is that the age of austerity is over and good riddance to it. The French CAC 40 Index gained 1.65% and the iShares MSCI France Index (NYSE: EWQ) added 1.3% to its stature. American investors were confused, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) erasing initial losses. Maybe it’s just hope that’s selling to investors these days; perhaps change of any sort would be celebrated by a desperate market. In that case, when the high wears off and investors find not much has changed with regard to the lagging economy, stubborn unemployment and burdensome debt load, and on top of that, pressure builds on other nations on the fringe, the celebration should prove short-lived.

It could take time for prospective growth initiatives to have effect, so patience may wear thin. However, shifting the burden from the poor to the rich could be just a vote away for the French and the Greeks. That is precisely why there’s talk today of a potential run of money, with its destination divided, but its origination now decided. Money has been leaving Greece for some time now though, given the duration of its crisis. For France, it’s a new phenomenon. For Europe, it could be the way of the future, and for the United States, it could be a trend that catches on.

Article is relevant to Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamericano (NYSE: BLX), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, May 07, 2012

Europe’s Election Chaos Could Murder Stocks

murder for stocks
The result of Sunday’s elections should spell doomsday for Europe and the stock market too, given what is playing out in Greece. Before the voting began, the polls showed Greece’s two mainstream political parties PASOK and New Democracy could garner just 38% of Parliament combined. With 60+% of the vote counted, the two had fewer than 35% of the votes in total. It appears there will not be enough votes to form a proper coalition, given the distance between the two mainstream parties and the protest vote winners on the fringe.

stock market expert blogger
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

European Election Fallout

We discussed the Political Risk that is entering the frame for Europe in an article published on April 23rd, and this risk has definitely played a role in the unsettled state of the stock market over the last month. In fact, last week was the worst so far this year for stocks, though the disappointing monthly Employment Situation Report gets the blame for that, with a second straight month of soft job creation noted.

Now, don’t get me wrong, because I’m no fan of austerity implemented during times of economic recession, and I have argued vehemently against today’s popular wisdom in Europe from the start. That’s because it seems too many folks have forgotten that it was precisely this type of activity that turned a mild recession into the Great Depression for the United States. Ben Bernanke knows it very well, but he is also served well by keeping quiet, since his expansionary efforts for the U.S. would have had more detrimental impact to the dollar if not for the hobbled euro, not to mention the tragic earthquake that struck Japan. Conspiracy theorists might also look toward the rating agencies, especially Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP), which seemed to turn up the heat on Europe at a conspicuous moment for the dollar.

The results of the election should ferry in friction for the European master plan. I’m speaking of the drastic change the Germans have engineered for Greece, modeling it after its own image, so that it might receive aid to emerge from the debt it is buried under. It’s too bad though that the powers that be did not factor in the opinion of the Greeks who have been forced to swallow a swift disruptive change to their lifestyle, and all because of the poor management of their government.

Greek private sector debt was relatively small, and yet the Greek people are being asked to pay. Granted, the Greek government’s budget math would have Archimedes turning over in his grave, but some of the austerity measures being forced down Greece’s throat make little sense for an economy under threat of recession. Extending the retirement age was one thing, but firing thousands of public sector workers was mistimed and too immediate in its implementation.

The good thing about democracy is that it allows for the regular evaluation of government actions, and given Greece’s desperate acceptance of every EU command, the government will now be overhauled. What this means is that perhaps a radical voice will eventually emerge from Syntagma Square offering courageous (some would say ignorant) disagreement. With the way things have developed economically speaking, the voice will carry credence as well, and possibly shape a better way for Greece. God willing, it will not leave it outside of the euro zone, but that worst nightmare has a good chance of proving true. For now, not much of anything will get done, given the disjointed polls.

The stock market will reflect this chaotic circumstance Monday, with Asian shares starting the slide already. As of late evening Sunday in the Eastern Time zone, the NIKKEI 225 was lower 2.6% and the MSCI Asia Apex 50 was off 2.4%. European shares seemed sure to follow as I scribbled late Sunday night. They certainly showed signs of it last week, when the SPDR STOXX Europe 50 (NYSE: FEU) sank 1.5% Friday. The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) gained 1.2%, but it should soon trade in its charge for change in for panic too. In France, where Francois Hollande was celebrating victory and declaring the end of austerity, the iShares MSCI France Index (NYSE: EWQ) might offer a similar decline to its 1.6% Friday fall. Unless, that is, investors believe Europe will stick together, but at the same time look towards the sort of creative growth initiatives I’ve been calling for from the start.

I anticipate a deep and dark red day Monday for U.S. investors as well without a certain reassurance from Germany. The American stock market tends to shy away from uncertainty, let alone chaos, sort of like the 1.4% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average implied last week (SPDR Dow Industrials (NYSE: DIA) down 1.3%). Given that the probability of a Greek default has suddenly increased for those wearing blinders, and that the European plan could fall apart as swiftly as life in Greece has, you can bet on increased volatility in equities and a favoring of sell orders over the near-term. I reiterate, this should play out unless Europe can keep the funds flowing while easing on austerity. This will be the key, and we’ll look to Germany to see if a door is opened.

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Friday, April 06, 2012

Syntagma Square Resurrection of Revolution

suicide Syntagma Square Athens GreeceIn my recent article at the Wall Street Greek blog, entitled Buy Gold on the Fed Fiddling, I referenced the ongoing weights against the economy. For one, I noted that the European financial crisis has not yet subsided, detailing the many poor economic data points and events that occurred last week. In late March, the head of Standard & Poor’s Sovereign Ratings, Moritz Kraemer, said he believes Greece will probably have to restructure its debt again, involving needed aid from its European partners. European leaders are on record saying the latest bailout would be the last for Greece; now they may be put to the test at a time when their word will be measured. Moritz noted the risk posed by upcoming elections across Europe and Greece.

Greek reformersOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX.

Syntagma Square Revolution



The poor fellow who took his own life in Syntagma Square this past week tragically illustrated the ongoing plight of Greeks, who have been blindsided by the degree of change swiftly forced upon them through the austerity devised by a weak set of governors and their equally clueless European masters. From the very start, I have publicly offered a voice of warning regarding the poorly advised austerity plan.

Before the crisis was even born, in a private dinner with a mid-level ranking Greek economic sub-minister, I asked how Greece would handle the upcoming economic storm approaching it. This was early, before former Prime Minister Papandreou had even announced that Greece’s preceding government had cooked its books, which remained in bad shape. It was before the crisis developed, when most people, especially the politicians were still ignorant to the existence of this economic devil. The representative, who will remain nameless because I like him personally, said Greece would be fine, that it had a different type of economy than the rest of the developed West. I cringed inside, but I overlooked his naiveté, as it was (and remains) so widespread across the political sphere.

Around the same time, I sat in on a Washington D.C. meeting of Greek representatives, large telecom companies like Verizon (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (OTC: HLTOY.PK), and several high net worth individuals and smart men representing large investment pools. Greece was seeking capital investment to expand its broadband network to the 50 largest towns within the country. Among a group of wide-eyed, highly enthused Greeks, I asked the highest ranking representative how he could be sure the money Greece planned to supply over time to match foreign investment ($5 billion if I recall correctly) would still be available in one year’s time. The proud man looked at me with disdain, wondering who I was, as he answered, “Of course it will be available,” looking away before he had even completed his response.

I wonder if either of the two men is still employed and how they got their jobs in the first place. Of course, we cannot blame them, as they simply drank the Kool-Aid supplied by their higher ups, and sang the song yes men sing so well. A similar chorus sings a different tune today, as they blame Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Germany for their ills.

I fear that the first shot fired in Syntagma Square will not be the last, and that the next could be a burst which may be directed outward this time. The Greek government should see the sad event as a warning shot across its bow. If the government does not get creative in its economic restructuring and focus on economic growth stimulating actions, it may not enjoy a resurrection this spring. And even if it finds more aid, its death could still come by revolution, if not by election. I remain available to Greece for consultation.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Who Loves You, Baby? Evokes the Great Telly Savalas

Who Loves You Baby, Telly SavalasFeeling nostalgic for ‘70’s glam and cool, sexy Greek guys? Hurry down to the Soho Playhouse where Tom DiMenna is brilliantly channeling Telly Savalas, the macho Greek with the growly voice in Who Loves You, Baby?.

Celebrating Telly Savalas



theater critic“Who loves you, baby?” was a famous Savalas line from TV’S popular Kojak. Written by Hunter Nelson, and developed over a three-year period, the show takes the premise that sex and romance were for real in the ‘70’s. It’s ironic, touching and hilarious. With his shaved head and brown eyes (so Telly-like), DiMenna introduces himself as a “legitimate, card carrying sex symbol,” and admonishes: “Put the porno away. Wear a silk shirt. Learn about life.”

Set in a bar/lounge at the Soho Playhouse, Alex Leonard plays cocktail music that gets you in the mood. For an hour plus, you’re in a never-never Telly world. DiMenna captures the quality that made Savalas special. He himself seemed to spoof his macho self. A good guy, Telly created special intimacy with his audience. “Greeks don’t threaten. They utter prophecies,” says DiMenna/Savalas. We particularly appreciated comic-noir lines like: “Have you ever fallen in love and had a baby by a gal you met by the cigarette machine?”

The actor puffs on an electronic cigarette, drinks a Tequilla Sunrise (the lollipop that Savalas used in an attempt to break the smoking habit comes out later), and points to the current lack of alpha males like himself on the small screen. Telly was Kojak, a no-nonsense Greek cop. And as DiMenna points out --who do we have now? David Caruso of CSI. The actor/comic says: “The fish are disappearing. Your whiskey’s watered down. What’s missing is guys like me.”

During the production, brother George arrives for a loving reunion, and the two break into a Zorbas dance. Savalas himself would probably have approved of DiMenna’s rendition of You've Lost That Loving Feeling.

I met the real Telly back then, having a Scotch/Rocks in the Westbury Hotel Bar on Madison Avenue after lunch, and creating his own party by bringing his drink out to the sidewalk. A charmer, he dazzled me and my eight-year-old nephew Nicholas who loved him as Kojak.

Savalas played the title character in Kojak, a cop show set in New York, airing from October, 1973 to March 1978 on ABC TV. Kojak’s Greek-American heritage, shared by Savalas, was prominently featured in the series. Initially, the character was Polish but the actor rechristened the character, and it worked. Telly’s brother, George, appeared as a character on the show (a brother playing a brother).

In 1999, TV Guide ranked Theo Kojak Number 18 on its 50 Greatest TV Characters of All Time list.

DiMenna, 32, an Italian-American became addicted to Savalas watching old clips from his TV shows. Three years ago, he teamed up with Hunter Nelson to create the comedic tour de force. “What started out as a comedy show became a celebration of ‘70’s charisma,” says DiMenna. The actor, a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania, where he played quarterback on the football team, also spent a year in Italy playing with the Bologna Warriors. Growing up in Connecticut, his mother, a cabaret singer, frequently brought him into New York, often to “Don’t Tell Mama,” home of classic cabaret.

DiMenna has worked with the Second City in Chicago, done improv, and performed Shakespeare in London. Who Loves You Baby played last summer at New York’s Fringe Festival.

Taylor NegronTaylor Negron directs the “surreal retro-lounge act.” Our Chief Editor at Wall Street Greek talks of a welcoming Negron, accompanying "The Greek" for a bite after the show. Markos Kaminis described Negron as “a candid and engaging man who earned his fame as a film actor and comedian, but with depth that is perhaps better explained by the man’s artwork and skill with the written word.”

The show’s on every Wednesday, Thursday and Friday at 8 p.m. through April, 2012 at The Huron Club, Soho Playhouse, 15 Vandam Street (off Sixth Ave). The theater is easy to reach, three blocks from the Houston Street (1 train) and Spring Street (C & E) subway stops. Contact: TellySavalasLive.com and get tickets here.

Other critics have weighed in on the show:

“You will not see a funnier play than Who Loves You Baby?! As Savalas, Tom DiMenna is hilarious and cool like Telly.” New York Theater Com.

Who Loves You Baby? is hilarious. Tom DiMenna is front and center as a dead ringer for Savalas. It’s a brilliantly breezily bombastic performance.” Nitelife Exchange.

Editor's Note: This article should interest parties interested in The New York Times (NYSE: NYT), Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI), A.H. Belo (NYSE: AHC), Daily Journal (NYSE: DJCO), Journal Communications (NYSE: JRN), Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE), Media General (NYSE: MEG), E.W. Scripps (NYSE: SSP), McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI), The Washington Post (NYSE: WPO), Dex One (Nasdaq: DEXO), Martha Stewart Living (NYSE: MSO), Meredith (NYSE: MDP), Private Media (Nasdaq: PRVT), Reed Elsevier (NYSE: ENL), Reed Elsevier Plc (NYSE: RUK), Dolan Co. (NYSE: DN), Disney (NYSE: DIS), DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA), Cinemark Holdings (NYSE: CNK), Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC), RealD (NYSE: RLD), Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), Rentrak (Nasdaq: RENT), Carmike Cinemas (Nasdaq: CKEC), LYFE Communications (OTC: LYFE.OB), New Frontier Media (Nasdaq: NOOF), Public Media Works (OTC: PUBM.OB), Independent Film Development (OTC: IFLM.OB), Point 360 (Nasdaq: PTSX), Seven Arts Pictures (Nasdaq: SAPX), Affinity Medianetworks (OTC: AFFW.OB), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWSA), Vivendi (Paris: VIV.PA), Liberty Starz Group (Nasdaq: LSTZA), McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP), Pearson Plc (NYSE: PSO), John Wiley & Sons (NYSE: JW-A, NYSE: JW-B), Scholastic (Nasdaq: SCHL), Courier (Nasdaq: CRRC), Noah Education (NYSE: NED), Peoples Educational Holdings (Nasdaq: PEDH), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Books-A-Million (Nasdaq: BAMM).

Who Loves You Baby Play Telly Savalas Soho Playhouse

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Monday, March 12, 2012

What Greece’s Bond Default Means

GreekThe International Swaps & Derivatives Association (ISDA) determined that Greece’s private debt restructuring effectively constituted a credit event, otherwise known as a default. This is not the kind of default that the world’s financiers had feared, though it is neither impotent with regard to repercussions for Greece.

GreeceOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Greece's Bond Default



Greece said some 85.8% of private debt holders of Greek-law bonds and about 20 billion euros of foreign-law debt agreed to take a “hair cut” on their holdings, accepting a promise from Greece for a much smaller payback on their loans. While any number (like 85.8%) should be questioned when it comes from the notorious and now desperate Greek government, we’ll humor them for the sake of global order. Greece enacted a retroactively contracted collective action clause based on the greater than two-thirds count of private debt-holders reportedly agreeing to its proposal. The coerced and clearly unconventional hair-cut was judged by the ISDA to be an effective default on the debt, and it was. This was no surprise, with ratings agencies Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP) and Fitch all effectively cutting Greece’s sovereign debt ratings to default levels over recent weeks.

The decision will trigger $3 billion worth of credit default swaps, with payouts depending on the value of Greek bonds on the open market. Some estimate on the “gray market” that the value of the still questionable private debt to be issued by Greece is worth about $0.21 on the dollar invested, so the holders of the swaps should receive some $0.79 per dollar. In this case, the details are less important than the general action, which effectively validates credit default swaps and projects a new view on the sovereign debt market.

While the securities actions represent a sort of default, they actually support the backing of the troika through the reduction of Greece’s overall debt burden. That said, the new debt Greece has offered its private debt holders remains costly, with an expected yield upward of 20%. That’s because Greece’s already questionable credibility has incurred a seminal change for the worse.

The nation’s crippling austerity is understood by the capital markets to be detrimental to economic growth. I have already written much about my disagreement with Europe’s cure for Greece. It’s like Greece is cutting off its leg rather than setting its broken bone. The reason is so that it can progress today and tomorrow, but the result remains a severely crippled Greece, hampered by its self inflicted injury. That’s not the way I would go about it, and I will answer how I would go about it in the very short-term through a series of reports.

On Friday, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) gave back some of the gains made since Greece again secured troika support. The iShares S&P Europe 350 Index (NYSE: IEV) did the same. The stock action correctly reflects the uncertainty that remains regarding resolution to this crisis. The shares of the National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG) and Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) likewise reflected this uncertainty.

So today many are confused as to just what has occurred in Greece. Has it defaulted or not? The answer is yes, it has defaulted technically speaking. However, no, it has not yet failed in its desperate effort to stay afloat. What has happened is that the nation has forced a small number of people to endure some significant pain, those being the private bond holders. Of course, in a complete default scenario, those few wouldn’t do any better. Many believe Greece still will inevitably default on the entirety of its debt or choose a different path post elections, despite the efforts of the troika to ensure payback. If or when Greece does fail due to its (and Europe’s) poorly prescribed blood-letting solution, then I believe the euro-zone should fall apart as well.

The reason for this is of course contagion and something more. The events of last week should not weigh on the sovereign credits of Portugal or any of the other PIIGS beyond any short-term bump. Yet, the euro zone scheme remains a poorly devised half-solution for the region, designed to help it compete in the changing global marketplace. However, only when its national components sacrifice sovereignty will the fiscal union hold for the whole. That scenario will not likely develop, though, due to human attachment to culture, history and tribe. Thus, I say the failure of the euro zone is probable.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Friday, February 10, 2012

Opa Greek Cultural Cruise - Penelope's Diary

Greek dancing on Opa cruiseAs the world focuses on the tragedy of the cruise ship Costa Concordia, I’m packing my bag for the "Opa Greek Cultural Cruise," sailing Feb. 11 from Fort Lauderdale, Fla. We’ll be sailing aboard a splendid new Italian ship, the MSC POESIA. On last year’s cruise we were drilled in life-saving, not once but twice, wearing lifejackets and going to our stations, so kudos to TravelGroup International! The music and entertainment were exceptional, as were my fellow travelers. I hope that all travelers and “Wall Street Greek” readers in particular will enjoy smooth sailing and good memories of this year’s cruise season. I’d like to share the diary with you that I kept on last year’s trip.

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"OPA CRUISE" DIARY



travel writerFriday –I arrive in Miami from New York City on a cold March day, wearily dragging my brightly labeled bag, to join two-hundred other Greek-Americans. We’ve signed on for the week-long “Opa” cruise to the Eastern Caribbean aboard the Costa Atlantica, an extravaganza of an Italian ship inspired by film maker Federico Fellini. It’s a glittering world, away from telephones and e-mail, with nothing do but dance, converse (because Greeks take conversation seriously) dine (forget ordinary eating – this is big-time cuisine), swim, catch the sun, and maybe gamble. It’s my second year as an “Opa” adventurer. Magically, my bag’s whisked away to a gem-like cabin with a balcony overlooking the sea. Also awaiting me, my “Opa” card (a handy, on-board credit device), and a blue and white beach bag. I already feel rejuvenated.

Organized by Dr. Cary and Ellen Pantazis as a fund-raiser for the Ocala, Fla. Church, and orchestrated by TravelGroup International’s remarkable Faye Weissblum, the “Opa” trip’s notable for genuine hospitality. No question goes unanswered. No request is ignored. Leaving my cabin, I swiftly walk to the small gaming casino and touch the magical one cent slot machine where last year I won $620.00. We’re still on land. The machine will have to wait.

That night in the Coral Lounge, an elegant grotto with blue walls and white fantasy trees, Greeks from twenty-two states – California to Massachusetts, Utah to Florida -- and the United Kingdom -- gather. The Aegean Duo -- singer and bouzouki player Steve Tavelaris and musician Nick Mouganis tune up, joined by band leader Nick Travelis. Irresistible Greek music fills the air. The dancers move to the floor and the party begins.

Saturday – Decisions, decisions: Greek dancing lessons with Mary Girmis? Fun and games in the Game Room? Swimming? Basking in the sun? Mambo lessons?

I opt for the Rev. Michael Soter’s religious service, a beautiful way to start a sea voyage. Father Soter blends faith with good humor. “My only other cruise was with the military,” he admits with a twinkle. “I think the services we have every day remind people that you can enjoy yourself without losing your spiritual focus.” Despite conducting his service in the Paparazzi Room, surrounded by blow-ups of Anita Ekberg and Marcello Mastroianni in the film La Dolce Vita, with his purple vestment and the chanting of the service participants, authentic Orthodox spirit prevails.

After the prayer service, I head for the Dante Disco, inspired by The Inferno. The dance lessons are heaven, and I meet “Opa” cruisers refreshing their dancing skills. James Teagarden of Dallas, Texas, son of a Greek mother, a young bachelor, says: “I’m already having the time of my life.” Has he met any lovely young Greek ladies? “Not yet,” says Jim. “But it’s early in the cruise.”

Greek music band Opa Cultural cruiseDancing is the heart of the “Opa” cruise, and the music is exceptional. That night in the Coral Lounge, I talk with the AegeanDuo, musician Nick Mouganis and singer and bouzouki player Steve Tavelaris of Rochester, N.Y. (The third music maker is the amazing Nick Travelis, who also has a group called the AegeanDuo…but that’s getting complicated. We’ll catch Travelis later.)

Mouganis, an adjunct professor of Greek mythology, also has an environmental contract business. Steve is in real estate. Says Mouganis: “Business frees us up to take our music seriously.” Both are married with children, and have brought their beautiful wives on board with them. Steve’s wife, Mary, and Nick’s wife, Lynn, are both non-Greeks but speak Greek fluently and have taught their children Greek. We’re impressed!

Together for over thirty years, the men create a unique, authentically Greek sound. Committed musicians, in the 1970’s, Nick went to Greece with his wife and spent eight months collecting and recording folk music. With a repertoire of between 3 and 4 thousand pieces, they tailor their music to their audience. Says Steve: “We make sure that the energy’s there. It gets people up. People will say to me ‘I’m too tired to dance,’ and two hours later say ‘I danced and danced and didn’t want to stop’.”

Sunday – It feels like we’ve been cruising for a week, but it’s only Sunday. It’s time for our first port of call. Although Grand Turk’s fabled for its blue water and sky, today is overcast. Some opt to stay aboard the ship. With two companions, I book a taxi guide. The well-informed Carlos points out Turk’s many churches and the original source of its income – salt, dug out by slave labor. Most food is imported. A pathetic cow, lacking pasture land, drifts through a garbage dump. Fortunately, islanders prosper on the tourist industry. I buy a small pocketbook for a niece. Carlos tells me to bargain but the store proprietor wisely says: “You want it for a gift – so no bargaining.”

Unfortunately, I miss the lecture by Dr. Gary Pantazis on “Greek Pathologists Who Have Saved Countless Lives,” but receive a glowing report from a fellow “Opa” traveler.

And then it’s time for dinner. I’m charmed not only by the many choices on the menu (no wonder Costa plans so many exercise classes), but by my table mates: cousin Dino Smiros, a retired businessman, and his wife Mary, an artist, of Syosset, Long Island; Joanna Pappas, a kindergarten teacher from Long Island; my sister, Helen King, of Madison, N.J.; Dr. Corinne Courpas, an M.D. and her husband, Dr. Anthony Courpas, a pediatrician of Baltimore, Md; and Fay Rellas, a teacher, and her husband, Judge John Rellas, of Naples, Fla. Conversation topics range from the poet Cavafy to whether it’s wise to indulge in five courses every night . Food-wise, I decide to try everything!

After dinner, I head for my favorite one-armed bandit, but it’s been appropriated for the night. I watch yearningly from another machine and lose money, feeling like a lover who’s been betrayed.

But then it’s on to the Coral Lounge, where the main attraction is a show by comedian Jim Dailakis. I take my seat in the second row stoically, and with a mild burp, having just consumed a sublime serving of “gnocci with five cheeses.” In New York, I live on Lean Cuisine and an occasional minute steak, so my palate is in a delightful state of sated shock. As Greek comics go, I believe I’ve seen it all. Are any surprises possible?

From the moment he lands on the stage in a perfect split (he’s studied martial arts since age 15), Dailakis proves himself a show-stopper. A witty, acerbic observer, Dailakis combines Chaplinesque body gesturing with the off-beat observational skill of the late George Carlin. The audience loves his act as he walks the fine line between brazen lampoon and satire. Why do Greeks live so long? “Church aerobics,” says Dailakis, demonstrating the life-giving up and down actions.

Inspired by Al Pacino and Hollywood, Dailakis moved to New York from Perth, Australia fifteen years ago to study acting. “I’m a Greek who couldn’t wait tables, so a friend suggested – you can always make money in comedy. I tried it once or twice, and it took off. I went home to Australia, where I was offered a three-month tour. The three-month comedy tour is still going.” Dailakis, a writer as well as a comic, creates all of his own material. “What makes comedy funny is the truth. When I get a big laugh, I know that I’ve just gone into the audience’s childhood, because we all have the same parents, the same uncles. I love that.“

Dailakis has written a film, All My Friends Are Getting Married, which goes into production this year, and of course, he’ll play a leading role. “It’s about five guys determined to stay single – but one by one they give in. I’m the one who holds out.”

Monday– We dock at Tortola and I rush ashore to explore the island with four companions and our guide Bage. Even with a seat belt, it’s a wild ride. Steep, narrow roads feature hair-raising turns. Dr. Anthony Courpas observes wryly, “In comparison, the Greek mountain roads look like the streets of Paris.”

Tuesday– Land, ho! Catalina Island. Determined to meet “the real people of the Dominican Republic,” I book a tour that visits an air-conditioned cigar factory. Our bumpy jeep then moves through miles and miles and miles of sugar cane. In the middle of cane fields, our guide stops, opens a bottle of rum, pours drinks all around, and sells us hats to help raise funds for school uniforms.

Exhausted, my eye-balls weary from gazing at sugar cane, I half-wish I had gone to the to the lovely beach, but wrong choices form part of cruising. Consider Odysseus and his mythic booboos, including stopping off at Circe’s island where the enchantress turned his men into swine. (Odysseus did rescue them and forged a warm relationship with Circe.)

Back aboard, we’re treated to a wonderful Greek dinner including spanikopita, fish and baklava, followed by cocktails in the Coral Lounge.

Comic Jim Dailakis performs again. He’s only brilliant! Bravo, Jim!

Dancers fill the floor. “Opa”!

Wednesday– Today it’s “Opa” at sea, with a Greek Festival Party by the pool. The entire ship dances to Greek music, and dines on an outdoor buffet of Greek specialties including souvlakia and baklava. “Opa” cruisers feel their kefi in the sunlight.

Between dances, we chat with several “Opa” stalwarts, including Ernie Memphis, famous for his dancing. Ernie and wife Victoria are committed “Opa” cruisers. “We’re already signed up for next year’s cruise,” says Victoria. “The islands are unimportant. We enjoy the people.” Says Ernie: “We never book a fancy room. We say just get us aboard and put us inside next to the engine. This year, Faye called and said we’re upgrading you to a suite, because you deserve it. That was beautiful.”

Dr. Dean Loomis and his wife Toula, skilled dance partners, have been onboard since the first cruise. “It’s wonderful to be Greek for a week,” says Dr. Loomis. After dancing the afternoon away, Dr. Loomis will give a fascinating lecture on “The Spirit of 1776 and 1821: The Legacy of Our Greek American Heritage.”

Miss Senior Greek AmericaWe’re enchanted by Tula Serves, 87, of Canton, Ohio, recently crowned Miss Senior America, 2010-2011. What’s the secret to her vibrant appearance and personality? “A positive attitude,” the former teacher proclaims. After trying out for the Costa Talent Show, Tula performed Whatever Lola Wants with Marlene Dietrich insouciance while flaunting a black feather boa, and was a huge hit.

Thursday– We visit famous Nassau, the Bahamas, and learn that Greeks arrived here shortly after the Revolutionary War. Today they own jewelry shops and restaurants. On to Paradise Island and Atlantis, the 500-million mega resort, creation of Merv Griffin and Donald Trump. An outrageous pink fantasy, it features a huge gambling casino and a justifiably world-famous aquarium.

Hard to believe, but it’s time to pack suitcases, and prepare to disembark tomorrow. Not before talking to the charming Nick Trivelas who has been an integral musical part of every “Opa” cruise. The band leader, bouzouki player and full-time musician, formed a rock ‘n roll band, but Greek music won out. After studying electrical engineering in college, “the music business drew me back.” As for “Opa,” Nick says: “This cruise is so much fun. I love cruising to begin with, and mixing Greek culture in with it is just phenomenal.”

Ellen Pantazis of the Ocala Church and Faye Weissblum of TravelGroup International, have already begun planning next year’s trip. More than forty have already signed on for the cruise!

Ellen’s brainstorming some intriguing new events, but regardless, “What I like most about the cruises is that every year I see my friends. You make new friends. You see friends you had previous years. It’s almost like a little village, a reunion, and there’s a wonderful familiar feeling. You meet a Greek in any area and have these commonalities. That’s what this trip is about.”

On our last night aboard ship, the musicians put away their instruments. They won’t be playing tonight. I pack my suitcase, itemizing all the things I didn’t do: I didn’t swim with the Dolphins! I didn’t go to the beach! I only sat on my balcony for an hour! I never made it to the fancy restaurant on the top deck! I didn’t see all the Greek movies! But I had a wonderful time.

It’s late. I take the elevator down to the small casino. My favorite machine is free. I put in a twenty and win fifty. I’m tempted to play on, and hear the merry jingle of bells, but take my money and run. I won’t push my luck. I’ll save it for next year.

This article should interest investors in resorts and casino operators including Ameristar Casinos (Nasdaq: ASCA), Archon Corp. (OTC: ARHN.PK), Banyan Tree Holdings (OTC: BYNEF.PK), Bluegreen Corp (NYSE: BXG), Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD), Carnival (NYSE: CCL), Century Casinos (Nasdaq: CNTY), Club Med (OTC: CLMDY.PK), Empire Resorts (Nasdaq: NYNY), Full House Resorts (NYSE: FLL), Galaxy Entertainment (OTC: GXYEY.PK), Global Casinos (OTC: GBCS.PK), Great Wolf Resorts (Nasdaq: WOLF), Isle of Capri Casinos (Nasdaq: ISLE), Lakes Entertainment (Nasdaq: LACO), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), Marriot Vacations Worldwide (NYSE: VAC), Melco Crown Entertainment (Nasdaq: MPEL), MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM), Monarch Casino & Resort (Nasdaq: MCRI), MTR Gaming Group (Nasdaq: MNTG), Nevada Gold & Casinos (AMEX: UWN), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN), Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK), Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL), The Marcus Corp. (NYSE: MCS), Trans World Corp. (OTC: TWOC.PK), Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) and Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, February 07, 2012

The Vast Greece Troika Disconnect

Greece troika disconnectGreece is weighing heavily on markets again, as Greek Prime Minister Papademos and Greek politicians across all parties walk a political tightrope. At issue, the demands of its debtors to meet steep fiscal goals, upon which depends the fate of Greece. At play, likely elections that could see wholesale eviction of incumbents. At loss, the credibility of the Greek government, which promised Greeks there would be no new austerity.

Greek writerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX, Nasdaq: ACLI, NYSE: DB, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: STD, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: MS, NYSE: EEA, Nasdaq: VEURX, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: EKH, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: RNE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX

Greece Troika Disconnect



What seems a simple sell for the disconnected Germans and French, is political suicide for Greek politicians and economic torture for the Greek populace. It’s easy for the somewhat dependent yet disconnected European financiers to demand numerical goals be met, as they do not face the once again intensifying protests of the Greek people. The threatening words of Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, that Greek default would only bring more difficult days for Greeks, are less believable with each passing day of despair. Meanwhile, opposition party leader Antonis Samaras, increasingly issues opposing rhetoric while quietly complying to the demands of the troika. The Greek people are not fools, though, and so Greece is left wide open for dangerous political change that could issue in a bold nationalist with a different view. Thus, Europe would be wiser to lower the bar for Greece, before losing it to Russia and/or China, despite blood ties.

It is precisely austerity which is keeping Greece from meeting budgetary goals, as the nation’s GDP faces a steepening uphill battle. Now the desperate actors are seeking even a reduction in the minimum wage. How dare they! The argument that Greece has made its own bed and can face the consequences if it doesn’t like Europe’s demands is losing credibility, because if Europe is sincere in its intention to preserve Greece’s membership in the euro zone, it should be to preserve Greece’s stability as well. Otherwise, it will end up with a Moldova like member that could weigh on its longer term progress besides costing it heavily today. Europe has to decide how far it is willing to hobble its partner for the sake of retaining it. I reiterate that austerity measures would be more effective if implemented over a longer time span, allowing for their less disruptive reformation of Greece’s economy.

As mentioned here in the past, the latest Greek delays may simply be wise posturing by Greek leaders intended to illustrate to Europe the parties’ codependence upon one another. It’s a wise strategy, if I see it correctly, after perhaps inspiring it even with my little column. As Portugal pivots and Spain shivers in fear, Merkel and Sarkozy might consider the political cost of too little support to Greece, should the entire ship sink with the dingy. I suspect Greek leaders might help their cause by bringing their friends home for a meeting in Athens, with a dose of good Greek hospitality. These days, that comes with a Molotov cocktail in the place of ouzo. I would suggest Greek hosts escort their allies through the fiery streets of the hard road Greece is being forced to traverse. It might just open the eyes of the disconnected to the human costs of austerity, and the economic damage of fiscal goals driven by pride and political prowess.

Surprisingly, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) is holding near recently attained highs, I suppose on disbelief that this could end in Greek default rather than agreement at any cost. The iShares S&P Europe 350 Index ETF (NYSE: IEV) is similarly slanted. We’ll see how much the Greek people will bear.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, January 23, 2012

The Greece Iran Oil Connection

Greece Iran oil connectionAs the west prepares a steep set of sanctions geared to stifle Iran, Greece raises an important query. The debt laden Hellenes would like to know what will happen to their vulnerable economy if the nation’s preferable Iranian oil supply contracts are replaced with more costly sources? Furthermore, if its GDP is impacted as a result of the untimely action, causing it to fall short of qualifying thresholds for its foreign funding, would that be overlooked by its critical debt holders?

Greece expertOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX, Nasdaq: ACLI, NYSE: DB, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: STD, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: MS, NYSE: EEA, Nasdaq: VEURX, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: EKH, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: RNE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX

The Greece Iran Oil Connection



It’s a fair question for Greece to ask with its economic growth already under drag by the austerity demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its European brothers. Greece sourced a significant 14% of its imported oil from Iran in the first half of 2011, and has sourced up to 23% of its oil imports from its ancient counterpart at times. According to a Bloomberg article quoting an anonymous Greek diplomat, Greece wants to ensure that if that oil is replaced, it will receive identical terms, which exclude financial guarantees.

Under normal circumstances, such a condition would not even be considered, but while Greece is under the economic microscope of the IMF, it wants to avoid new obstacles to reaching already challenging goals set by its lenders of last resort. Thus, last week, Greece held up the EU’s sanctions which would stop the flow of Iranian oil to the region. Agitated European officials have indicated that assurances will be made to Greece, but that the details will be worked out after this week’s agreement on sanctions is in place. It’s unclear whether such hastily made promises will be adequate for Greek politicians who cannot afford to place a single new burden on the shoulders of Greece’s aggravated populace.

Given Greece’s poor credibility, it is unlikely to find better terms on the open market than it gets from its likewise desperate Iranian trading partner. So, the question posed to Europe is, will it subsidize the difference in cost to Greece? Otherwise, some leeway must be given Greece, with regard to the steep economic goals it’s been forced to set.

What we are seeing in this latest situation is similar to the chaos that ensued when the former Greek Prime Minister proposed a referendum for the Greek people to decide for themselves whether their future would be with or without the euro currency. It shows that Europe is no stronger than its weakest link, and that the Greeks have more bargaining leverage than most understand. Finally, Greek politicians seem to be realizing that Europe needs Greece to stay solvent as much as Greece needs its financial assistance. Clearly, the most obvious concern to Europe is how a disorderly disposition of Greece would reel Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt markets.

The current situation also highlights the important position Iran holds in the stability of the already shaky global marketplace. As the U.S. and Europe gear to pressure the Iranians, the question raised by Greece presents Iran with interesting information. Every plan to cut off Iranian oil is civil and arranged to ease the process, but the situation is not civil, if it is not economic warfare. So I have a question: What if the Iranians were to realize the plan set for them and understand their current position. They might just do the unexpected and cut off their own oil flow abruptly, and so, disruptively to Greece, Europe and the civilized world. Perhaps Greece’s negotiations with the EU in this regard should have been kept in closed quarters.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Phillip Phillips

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Saturday, January 14, 2012

Bad Signs for Greece

Greece default GreekThe latest days’ news wire has been full of bad signs for Greece. While you have to infer a bit and see implications to developments in order to say so, it’s not too far a reach to see what could be stewing for Greece this winter is not a warming trend.

Greek financial crisisOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX, Nasdaq: ACLI, NYSE: DB, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: STD, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: MS, NYSE: EEA, Nasdaq: VEURX, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: EKH, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: RNE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX

Greece May Yet Default



The latest omen came last week, when negotiations broke off between the Greek government and private bondholders. The effort is geared to liquidate about half of Greece’s private debt or 100 billion euros worth at the cost of the bondholders. It’s a lesser evil choice for the bondholders, which is only acceptable because it may help preserve the remaining portion of their investment in or loans to Greece.

This very important effort for Greece’s recovery is now also a critical step for its short-term survival. This is because it must be accomplished in order for Greece to qualify for its next tranche of aid funding from the international community. Representatives of the bondholders stated that they were stepping away in order to “pause for reflection.” The quandary is created because of math and capital markets, as the Greeks are really seeking more than the 50% cut discussed, because the effective market value of the bonds will likely drop immediately when the bond swap takes place. That said, if Greece recovers, the contract value should be approximated by market interest.

Clearly, if Greece defaults, bondholders will be left with empty hands, so Greece does have some negotiating power. However, the bondholders also know that Greece wants to avoid default and that they are needed for that process. It seems to me that whatever will satisfy the IMF is what should be adopted at this point.

Compounding the problem, Greece just reported that its budget deficit expanded in 2011 by 0.8%, to 21.64 billion euros. It was a bit better than the government’s revised forecast, but its details reflect fundamental obstacles to Greece’s economic and fiscal recovery. Despite all the government’s new taxes to lift revenues, and its expense reduction efforts, the budget still widened. That was because personal income tax collection actually softened and its ordinary budget revenue generation fell by 1.7%. Meanwhile, despite its cost cutting efforts, spending rose by 2.8% on the significantly increased debt service costs that plague the embattled nation. There should be no surprise here for readers of my column, as I’ve argued readily against the logic of harsh short-sighted austerity.

The budget deficit is supposed to have shrunk to a smaller portion of Greece’s gross domestic product. How you get there with GDP declining and the deficit rising defies my understanding. Maybe it’s European math. In any event, there’s very little here to reassure the troika nor the capital markets that Greece is making progress, and so the pressure remains.

It seems to me, given Standard & Poor’s sovereign debt slashing of much of the euro zone Friday, that it is hedging if not forecasting Greek default or some sort of unsavory result. Nine countries were downgraded in total, with the most damage done to France and Austria, which lost their top grades. Germany was spared, with its constitutional construct cited as a safety against its government’s potential for making poor decisions.

This coming week, the IMF resumes debt talks with Greece, sending a “mission team” to Athens as part of the review process. All the above discussed matters will be reviewed. Perhaps the presence of the IMF and renewed understanding of the criticality of “private sector involvement” will bring a conciliatory and cooperative tone and progress for Greece. However, the signs are bad.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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