Stock Market Read - Sink or Swim on the Jobs Report?

Stocks are likely to mostly slip in early trading Friday after a strong monthly jobs report was published. Positive economic data signals lead investor expectations toward a Fed rate action for December, which while perhaps appropriate is still unsavory for most companies and for good reason. Fear not, though, as this early indicator only has so much punch. Given the fact that the Fed December meeting is still a ways away, and given the seasonal influence of capital flows, I expect stocks to bounce back. I’m looking at the $208 level on the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) as a test point for any declne Friday, and that is where I expect stocks should stabilize and bounce back from. Keep in mind that the important financial sector mostly benefits from higher interest rates and acts as a counterbalance to other equity softness, limiting today’s impact. Also remember that a strong economy justifies higher interest rates and is the best of all long-term drivers for stocks. Though, until the December Fed meeting today’s data point places a cap on the stock market’s upside potential. Keep in mind that more data (economic and other) will follow that could change the dynamics. See the full report on the stock market here.

Market Sectors & Specific Issues	11-06-15 Early Trade
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.1%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.2%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+1.7%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+1.2%
iShares Nasdaq Biotech (Nasdaq: IBB)	-0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Prices will Swing Higher as Fed’s Hands are Tied

Gold prices should appreciate from here. Gold prices have been burdened by the strengthening dollar for the past couple years. The dollar was supported again last week thanks to extraordinary language from the European Central Bank (ECB), but gold hardly budged while oil prices plunged. The reason appeared to be due to expectations about the Fed policy decision this week, or rather its likely indecision. The Fed will probably not raise interest rates this week, given recently soft U.S. economic indications and the strong position of the ECB in the opposite direction. The notable risk to gold buyers here is that the Fed stubbornly acts to raise rates this week, but that possibility has decreased thanks to the latest data. Click through here for the full report on gold prices and the Fed. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), Direxion Daily Gold Miner Bullish (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bearish (NYSE: DUST), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stocks Could Fall 5% if Fed’s Williams Says the Wrong Thing Today

When San Francisco Fed President John Williams gives his speech on the economic outlook at a luncheon in San Francisco today, he’s likely to plant seeds of doubt in the nascent stock rally. As recently as October 1st, Williams was still saying the Fed needed to act this year, even after the weak data on manufacturing was released but before the news about jobs. Today he gets his first chance to speak since the jobs release, and he might not change his tune. That is because Williams wants to act on rates ahead of the perfect moment, to prevent financial imbalances before they occur. If his opinion is shared by the majority of voting FOMC members, than anything is still possible for October, though I do not want to imagine the rout in stocks that would follow an October rate hike. The rally that has been underway since the middle of last week might face a seed of doubt in its Fed presumption today. Thus, stocks could give way a bit, but if Williams changes his tune, the rally has the all-clear. See my full report on stocks and the Fed's Williams here. 

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Fed Meeting Preview – My Take

There is a great deal of uncertainty around this Fed rate decision, and it may not only be in the marketplace. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) itself will probably show division when it comes to its conclusion today. I think the market’s confusion was evident by the last two days of trading, which I discuss in more detail herein. Markets are unsure for good reason, given previous Fed forecasts and the outside influences upon the two Fed mandates of managing monetary policy for employment and inflation. While everything is on the table today, it should be a good day for stocks given what we have priced in already – I think. Obviously, everything depends on what the Fed actually says and does. It’s quite ironic that this Fed, which has made such strides toward transparency, finds itself in such a confused situation. See our full Fed meeting preview here.

Sector Security	Wednesday 09-16-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.85%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.84%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.56%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.82%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.28%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+1.3%
iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond (NYSE: TLT)	-0.38%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Don't Trade Like a Crack Addict on a Fed Fix

A television media reporter this morning said the market’s reaction to TV interview comments by Fed Governor Powell were like a crack addict getting his Fed fix. Powell indicated the Fed would stay true to being data dependent, with plenty of important data between now and the September meeting. His somewhat dovish discussion followed comments from FOMC voting member Lockhart’s statement that he would need to be dissuaded from voting for a rate hike as things stand today. Stocks are trading quite sensitively in anticipation of an imminent Fed liftoff to interest rates, and Powell seemed to serve the market the drug it needed to refresh enthusiasm. Though, it also ensures extreme volatility around key economic data points, including this week’s Employment Situation data. Be careful investing over the next few months friends, as these swings and volatility are likely to continue. Long-term investors can actually look forward to the start of Fed rate hikes finally happening, as it will usher in discussion about the economy, which is what we truly should be focused on. Economic justification for normalized interest rates should be celebrated by the market over the longer term as it serves to stave off inflation. See more about this crack addict!

Sector Security	1:00 PM 8-5-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.2%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+0.4%
iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX)	-0.2%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+0.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

This Issue Will Push the Fed Toward Liftoff

In the long-biased and hopeful stock market, and the media that follows it, it seems to me that a great deal of the discussion around the Federal Reserve has to do with reasoning against a near-term interest rate hike. There is doubt about the Fed’s plan for liftoff, and I guess skepticism is sensible given how long it has been since the Fed last tightened monetary policy. However, reasons also exist today that are pushing the Fed toward a near-term interest rate hike. This is one of them, heating inflation. See the report on the Fed here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Another Fed Hawk Soils Stock Rally Durability

Last week, San Francisco Fed President Williams said “the rest of the year will be interesting” and that he was inclined to raise rates twice this year. That implied the Fed would liftoff with rate hikes starting in September. Today, Fed Governor Powell indicated the chances for liftoff were 50/50 for September, and that he would hike in September and in December. Friends, your long awaited Greece resolution-driven rally should be short-lived here as focus turns back to the Fed before long. See more on the Fed hawk's impact on stocks. Article interests Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Oh No He Didn’t?! – Fed-Man is Talking Trash

Stocks got a reprieve last week thanks to an FOMC dot-plot indicating a lower and later Fed Funds Rate hike timeline. But it’s time for a reality check. The Fed is going to raise rates this year, and it very well might do it twice before Christmas. So, the celebration expressed in stocks should be short-lived as investors reevaluate the Fed forecast. Fed members are making speaking engagements now that the FOMC meeting quiet period is over, and what some are saying is unsavory for stocks. So, while we may enjoy some upside near-term, it looks like investors will be wise to second guess by mid-August. See more on the Fed speaker stirring concern. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), iPath S&P VIX (NYSE: VXX), Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Investors – The Fed is NOT Your Friend

Listen up gold investors! Our best friend of the last decade, the U.S. Federal Reserve, has abandoned us. I suggest investors ignore the gains in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) that followed the FOMC meeting. The interpretation of the FOMC Monetary Policy Statement and Fed plans is confused friends. The Fed’s free money days are over and tightening policy is assured this year, so these nostalgic trades reminiscent of the good old days are misplaced and will not last. Though the dollar appears extended on a long-term basis, it can hold or strengthen further on a short and medium term basis, meaning gold likely weakens again. See more about gold and the Fed here. Article also interests iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vectors Jr. Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX). 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Feeling Around the Fed

Stocks have been hemming and hedging for quite some time heading into today’s announcement from the Federal Reserve. So, for some time now I’ve been anticipating (internally here) a potential breakout on the relieving news of no June rate action, especially given the distance between today and September. However, I’m now worried that any rally could be cut short due to what the Fed indicates through its economic forecasts and the famed dot-plot indicating its expectations for the Fed Funds Rate. That data along with the usually controlled and consoling press conference of the Fed Chair could still raise some question about the possibility of an earlier action. And then there is Greece and relative European and global financial market repercussions, which seems to continue to cap hope for stocks for as long as it remains in play. Because of the uncertainty that exists around these issues and the possibility that it may linger after the Fed release, bets placed ahead of this event are probably not wise in either direction. Moves in stocks today could be altered by later news out of Europe, U.S. economic data and the pending parade of Fed member speaking engagements that follows every FOMC announcement. See my report on the Fed announcement here.

Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), SPDR Dow (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

This is Fed Market Manipulation

The U.S. Federal Reserve cleared the way for a relief rally in the stock market Wednesday with its Monetary Policy Statement release. Despite removing its cautionary language – namely the word “patient” – it added enough new cautionary discussion to offset any resulting negative market interpretation. The Fed pretty well spelled out relief with several strong and strange statements about its plans, but the market still has its doubts. Fed rate hikes seemed to be on the horizon before Wednesday, but it’s clear now that the Fed will simply play this by ear for as long as the dollar is in play. Has the Fed gone too far and turned transparency into outright market manipulation? See my full report on Fed market manipulation here.

Market Sector Security	03-19-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.6%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.2%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.2%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.4%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-4.2%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Myopic Market Mania

The market is myopic this week and for good reason. Despite the usual busy week of economic reports and the corporate news that will surface, this week is all about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy statement release. One key word could dictate a significant one-day move, and also dictate direction for the rest of 2015. See my full stock market report here.

Market Sector Security	YTD
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+2.3%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+3.1%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+0.9%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-2.8%
PIMCO Total Return (NYSE: BOND)	+1.7%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-15.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.