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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Recession Omen - Consumer Confidence Collapse on Payroll Tax Hike

ApocalypseBy Markos N. Kaminis:

Tuesday’s consumer confidence report could be offering important insight into the real impact of the payroll tax break expiration. Confidence soared once politicians got out of the way of the stock market. However, as Americans noticed shrinkage in their paychecks, the consumer view changed. The government itself thinks there should be a 1.5 percentage point drag on economic growth as a result, but in a consumer driven economy, everything is at stake.

The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index for March Tuesday morning. The index, which had gained more than 10 points last month on new hope for stocks and the economy, shed all of its gains this month I believe on the reality of lighter paychecks. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting a slight slippage in the index, to 68.0, from the 69.6 reported in February. What they got was a far worse result, with the Consumer Confidence Index falling nearly 10 points to 59.7.

Stocks ignored the recession warning signal, with all the broader indexes higher on the day, as gold retrenched. However, the ignorance of the major indexes was in the shadow of the move of a broader grouping of stocks measured by the iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM), which was only fractionally higher toward the close. That was against the 0.7% gain of the S&P 500 Index at 3:30 PM ET.

Broad Indicator
Tuesday Through 3:10 PM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.7%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+0.6%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.4%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
+0.1%
SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD)
-0.3%


The Confidence Report showed that the consumer view for the current situation fell off. The Present Situation Index dropped to 57.9, from 61.4. Still, the news about the future was even worse. The Expectations Index collapsed to 60.9 from 72.4 last month.

In the past I’ve talked about the importance of the Present Situation measure versus the Expectations measure. We want to see improvement in the present situation to realize real economic gains. Stocks may move on “expectations” just as well though. Still, we cannot really consider this measure as a good gauge of the economy unless the overall gain is driven by the Present Situation Index. Expectations can change on a whim, for instance on the passing of the fiscal cliff or the debt ceiling issues.

The truth today is that Americans are seeing smaller paychecks because of the expiration of the payroll tax break. This was made real for me when last week I shared a meal with a maintenance worker from my church. Vangelis told me that he no longer liked President Obama, because his taxes went up. When Americans feel like they’re poorer, they are less likely to spend. With so many just getting by, a little less income makes a big difference. Also, the expiration of the tax break is not viewed as such, but as a tax increase by people who are not following the complicated news flow. Tax hikes have a way of killing spending, whether they are real or perceived.

Last week, I talked about the Fed’s economic forecast, which were hardly changed even despite their own acknowledgement that the payroll tax break expiration and the sequester spending cuts could burden economic growth by as much as 1.5% this year. I said The Fed’s Math Just Doesn’t Add Up. What might add up though is if consumers stop spending, as indicated by the sentiment result Tuesday. Then the Fed’s nearly unchanged GDP expectation for 2.3% to 2.8% growth this year could also be exposed. Make no mistake about it, in this consumer driven economy, the March message from consumers could signal a recession. I’ll be following this week’s GDP revision and Personal Spending data so you may want to follow along.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

The Fed's Funny Math

Fed mathI know our math skills are poor in this nation, but the Fed would not try to blatantly pull the rug over our eyes while testing our elementary math skills would they? Let me get out my calculator and try this again, because my math skills must be failing me. So the Fed is saying then that 3.0% – 1.5% = 2.8%? Did they really just say that? Let’s move on to the lower end of the GDP growth forecast range for 2013. So then the money men are saying that 2.3% – 1.5% = 2.3%? What is this phantom math or quantum physics? Are there assumptions here that are beyond human comprehension? Is it just me, or do the numbers not add up? Fed Chairman Bernanke just reconfirmed in his press conference that there was a 1.5% drag to economic growth this year. So why didn’t that drag show up in the latest Fed forecasts? Did the Fed just lie to me?!?!

the truth hurtsOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

They say, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.” I stopped getting fooled by Fed economic forecasts when they said the financial crisis would be contained within the real estate sector at the end of the last decade. Then some time passed and Ben started to grow on me I suppose. I even grew a beard like his. Before I knew it, I guess I can say in the words of Nicki Minaj, my new favorite American Idol judge, “I beez in the trap!” (Warning – the linked to video contains profanity) Actually, so does my ego right now. I mean, we just took the Fed for its word and authored this article, Fed Warning – Expect a Sharp Cut to the Economic Forecast. I suppose I should have continued, “but based on the new math…”

What bothered me most was that during his press conference, Bernanke reiterated that there would be a 1.5% drag to Real GDP growth this year. Okay then, so where did the 1.3% offsetting and quite suddenly arriving factor come from and what is it exactly? Because otherwise, this math just does not add up. I’m sitting here with a calculator, a sundial and the spirit of Nostradamus losing my mind over this thing. I may have to send Nosti to dig up Einstein or Steven Hawking, because this math may have dimensional aspects to it or fall under string theory. Unfortunately, I hear the genius mathematicians are busy battling. I would like to see an Epic Rap Battle between Bernanke and Greenspan.



Here’s the actual Fed forecast. The simplicity of the PDF should have tipped me off I suppose. The math is reminiscent of something actually. It reminds me of the adjustments some of my superiors used to make to their tear sheet stock reports without earnings models to support them. Is the room spinning for you too? This is phantastic. I just can’t make sense of it, so it really deserves nothing more than a cynical editorial really. What really peeves me about it is that real money is moving on this news, and nobody (I mean nobody!) is questioning it. The market gained on the day and rose into the close. On what?!

Security
Blind Direction
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.7%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+0.4%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.7%
iShares Russel 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
+0.9%
iShares Dow US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)
+0.6%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)
+0.7%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
-0.5%


All those reporters got up and asked questions and not one of them said, “Um, Mr. Bernanke, could you help me get the math here?” I think the Fed has some explaining to do. What say you?

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. This article interests Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Facebook (NYSE: FB), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), GE (NYSE: GE), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Ford (NYSE: F).

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Wednesday, March 13, 2013

5 Economic Issues that Need Reconciling

KaminisThere are times when the stock market and the economy diverge. In March 2009, for instance, when stocks started higher, the economy was still far from reflecting a turn. Today, the market is pricing in better days, but the economy is still flashing red. Only time will tell if the market has forecast correctly or not. For now, 5 economic issues still need reconciling.

  1. There’s a glaring issue with the most important data point measuring economic health. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was just revised higher, but to just above zero. At 0.1%, the expansion in the fourth quarter could not have been any closer to recessionary territory. Furthermore, we know the sequester cuts will cost the economy approximately 0.6% GDP points this year, part of a 1.5% weight that the Federal Reserve says fiscal policy is adding prematurely to our backs in 2013. 
  2. Corporate earnings estimates are being revised lower, and that is a bad economic signal that is especially hard for stock investors to ignore, and yet they are. Factset (NYSE: FDS) reports that all 10 sectors reported downward revisions to Q1 2013 EPS estimates. There were 82 companies warning on first quarter earnings, while just 25 pre-reported positive surprises. 
  3. The improvement reported by the government in the Employment Situation Report is questionable. My review of the report indicates that an employment participation rate closer to that of 2006 would have unemployment at 11.8% and underemployment at 18%, and neither improved over the prior month’s data, as was reported by the government. 
  4. Small businessmen, who drive the American economy and employ a great number of Americans, are so pessimistic in this period of economic growth that the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is lower now than it was at the trough of two previous recessions. 
  5. The well-being of the European economy is in serious question, with the European Central Bank (ECB) recently revising its expectations lower. Germany is facing recession and people are so fed up across Europe that the Italians almost brought back Silvio Berlusconi. The Greeks, who fought so valiantly in World War II that Winston Churchill said heroes fight like Greeks, have a faction raising flags in protest that makes me so angry I want to go knock a few ignorant brethren out. My father almost starved to death in the war and lost an Uncle as a refugee in Egypt, escaping only through that famed friend of Greece, Turkey on a boat so full of desperate people that it had just an inch left between it and the sea before it would fill with water in the middle of the night. A Nazi pig put the bottom of his boot onto my uncle’s preteen forehead, after he traded them wood for bread, and pushed him down a cement staircase without the bread. That was when they decided they had better leave. I just hope that the world realizes that the ignorance of a handful of Greeks does not represent nor even hold a candle to the love of many more God fearing Greek people who fought against fascism at great cost.

DIA Chart 1 Month

Chart by Yahoo Finance

I suspect I could dig up a few more economic issues than this, and I welcome readers to add their own pet peeves within the comments hereunder. We have not even broached the schizophrenic state of affairs in Washington D.C., and yet on Tuesday, as the Dow was flirting with ending its streak of higher highs, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) and the Dow itself broke into green ground just before the close (marking 8 straight days of gains). Still, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) ran out of trading time to get there, and closed down 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Friday, March 08, 2013

A False Prophet – Unemployment is Really 18%

false prophetThe stock market rallied Friday on a seemingly strong jobs report. However, I produced a detailed analysis at Seeking Alpha in the morning, which exposed the real unemployment rate closer to 18% than the 7.7% reported by the government. Furthermore, that truer figure actually deteriorated in February, versus the improvement reported in the government’s number. So at the end of the day, the rally in stocks was based on a false prophet in the jobs data. Just the same, I see stocks going higher from here.

Greek guysOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Index ETFs Ran on Friday
Index ETF
Friday’s Gains
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+0.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.1%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)
+0.9%


The day was clearly driven by the Department of Labor’s monthly Employment Situation Report for February. On the surface, the report showed improvement all around. Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 236,000 on net in February, far better than the consensus projection of economists for 171K, according to Bloomberg’s survey. Private nonfarm payrolls (excluding public sector job creation) grew by 246K, again much better than the 195K consensus view. The Unemployment Rate was likewise better than expected, with the rate improving to 7.7%, from 7.9%, better than the economists’ consensus forecast for a lesser improvement to 7.8%.

But as I indicated in my detailed analysis of the jobs report, the U-6 Underemployment Rate is still 14.3%, though that was better than January’s 14.4%. However, I took a closer inspection of the data, and applied a blast from the past labor participation rate from 2006 to the civilian population, and found that some 7.1 million Americans may simply have fallen off the government’s radar screen when their unemployment benefits ran out. After all, even today, long-term unemployment accounts for 40+% of total unemployment.

Where do these people go after they fall off the radar, welfare? Many apply for food stamps, and may remain on the radar, assuming the government has its act together; I doubt it. I think they’re simply unaccounted for, and definitely so when they’re not collecting any benefits. Those same Americans aren’t spending money like they used to, and they represent a burden on the economy’s back. If you account for them, you get an unemployment rate at 11.8% and an underemployment rate of 18.0% - just see my report.

The stock buying celebration is likely to continue, given my data is not generally accepted to be truth. Some of that might be for good reason. After all, those high labor participation rates of the past may have been built on false premise. All those jobs that existed in the inflated real estate sector in construction and in mortgage brokerage probably should not have been there in the first place. You know Bank of America’s (NYSE: BAC) acquired subsidiary, Countrywide, and the mortgage businesses at IndyMac and Washington Mutual maybe shouldn’t have been so big. BofA, Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) are still paying for them today. But maybe those folks would have found other work. After all, the employment rate was well under 5% for a very long time before the 2005 real estate surge. There’s also some validity in the demographic argument, with baby boomers retiring at a fast rate today. Even so, I expect the real unemployment rate is still significantly higher than the figure reported by the government.

Despite the false profit booked on Friday, I expect stocks to continue higher. Capital flows are just too massive to stop today, coming out of safe havens including money market funds, treasuries and precious metals. I authored a second piece at Seeking Alpha Friday which anticipated selling momentum would continue for gold, silver and relative ETFs. I’m speaking of names like the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD), the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). However, my thesis was disrupted by a report published at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) indicating gold could find strength over the next three months on a technical basis. I expect the factor behind the support Friday will fade and fall away, and the safe haven securities will find lower bottoms as a result.

From a broader perspective, recent economic data flow has exhibited some recession like symptoms. However, the market is looking ahead, as is appropriate for it, and it is anticipating better days. Only time will tell if the latest day’s profits were based on false prophets or not.

Corporate Wire
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) gained 1.7% on the day, despite reporting its third monthly same-store sales decline in five months. Sales were down 1.5% globally, but after adjusting for an extra day in the prior year period, sales were higher by 1.7%. The company’s U.S. business showed flat sales after the adjustment, which was just fine for investors concerned about the better burger threat to McDonald’s.

The day’s corporate drivers included the J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant and Leisure Management Access Forum, which highlighted presentations by Bally Technologies (NYSE: BYI), DineEquity (NYSE: DIN) and Domino’s Pizza (NYSE: DPZ). The day’s earnings schedule highlighted information from Ann Inc. (NYSE: ANN), Dolan (NYSE: DM), Fuel Systems Solutions (Nasdaq: FSYS), Genesco (NYSE: GCO) and iSoftStone (NYSE: ISS). Look for other reports from Arcos Dorados (Nasdaq: ARCO), BPZ Resources (NYSE: BPZ), Food Locker (NYSE: FL), Furmanite (NYSE: FRM), KMG Chemicals (NYSE: KMG), Memsic (Nasdaq: MEMS), Metalico (NYSE: MEA) and others.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greenwich Village tour

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Thursday, March 07, 2013

Are We Ignoring Recession Symptoms?

dangerousBy The Greek:

It’s just one day before the granddaddy of all jobs reports, the Employment Situation Report. Still, today’s jobs data said something about the economy, and perhaps offered a warning for us. Weekly Jobless Claims were good enough to distract investors before the open, but did we miss a key economic warning in the Challenger Job-Cuts Report in the process? Let’s not overlook the fact that the last quarter barely produced positive economic growth and that the previous Employment Situation Report to tomorrow’s revelation showed deterioration in the unemployment rate. These are recession-like symptoms. So are we ignoring recession signs?

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims showed a 7,000 decrease in new unemployment benefits filers last week, as it fell to a level of 340K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims also decreased by 7K, as it fell to a mark of 348,750. That was the lowest point for the average since March of 2008, and I heard that while watching CNBC like the majority of traders who bid index futures higher thereafter. Unfortunately, that sort of erased from market memory important information gleaned from the Challenger Job-Cuts Report.

In its reporting of monthly job-cuts for February this morning, Challenger, Gray & Christmas informed us of a sharp spike in layoffs. It is information that certainly runs counter to the market’s direction today, and it asks an important question about the economy too. In the early afternoon, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) were all in the green, though they seemed to be losing ground.

Maybe it’s for good reason. Job-cuts increased by 37%, to 55,356, which is a rather high level and could offer another warning about the economy. After all, fourth quarter GDP was just revised barely into positive territory and last month’s Employment Situation Report showed deterioration. Those are important recession-like symptoms, and hard to mistake for anything else.

Challenger said Wall Street drove the decline, with J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) announcing the most planned layoffs in the period (19K over 2 years). Late last year, Citigroup (NYSE: C) also announced a massive purge and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) let hundreds go. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) let so many go a year ago that they didn’t have to this year. Bonuses were up 8% this year on Wall Street, but the securities industry is getting leaner. It’s conflicting information, considering securities industry profits were up this year roughly three-fold, to $24 billion, according to a report by the New York State Comptroller’s Office. Wall Street tends to grow when the economic outlook is good, so is this yet another symptom of recession?

The housing industry is certainly not in recession, but perhaps it’s a lonely bastion of an otherwise decimated fortress. It’s hard to ignore the symptoms, whether they are on Wall Street or in the GDP data. And as for GDP, we expect forecasts for 2013 will be revised lower due to the sequester cuts. The Europeans quietly cut their own GDP forecast today. Has a sort of blindness come over us? Are we ignoring recession signs? What do you think?

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Beware A Downward GDP Revision is Coming

GDPReal GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised higher Thursday, into positive territory from the initially reported contraction. However, I expect forecasts for the full year of 2013 to be revised downward near-term given what looks like sure spending cuts that will cost growth.

Whether it be via the sequester plan or a more politically plausible set of cuts devised in a midnight hour negotiation, cuts are coming. The Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Chairman see those cuts as costly to economic growth by six-tenths of a percentage point. In his testimony to House and Senate financial committees this past week, the Fed Chief said the 0.6% impact would be part of a 1.5 percentage point drag to economic growth this year on recent changes to fiscal policy. Chairman Bernanke suggested policy makers would do better to limit near-term cuts while the economy remains vulnerable, and plan out more aggressive reductions for the long-term.

The market celebrated Thursday’s revision to fourth quarter GDP, which took it to +0.1%, up from the initially reported contraction of 0.1%. Through the close of trading on Thursday, each of the major ETFs measuring the market was higher. In fact, the stock market defiantly stood against the probable austerity measures for most of the week, as investors received a slew of reassuring positive economic data. The strange contrast of economic impact and stock market strength led to some question as to the real significance of the sequester cuts.

Index Security
Thursday to 1:20 PM
Week-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.6%
+0.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+0.2%
+0.8%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.5%
+0.7%


custom cakes
However, one very important positive economic data point will very likely be revised shortly. Revisions to economic growth forecasts must follow the latest cost cutting measures. In its December 2012 publishing, the Federal Reserve saw improving economic growth this year and next. As you can see in the table below, revisions to those projections should not reflect recession, but my simple 0.6% adjustment may prove to be understated. That’s because when the estimates were last produced, the economic prognostication had not foreseen or incorporated the depth of slippage that actually resulted in Q4 2012.

A relief recovery for Q1 2013 GDP might be expected post the passage of the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling circumstances. Those issues likely stymied economic activity at the end of 2012, due to the uncertainty they created about the economic environment. However, the expiration of the payroll tax break may not have been included in those forecasts either, and supports the case for a slower set of growth forecasts nonetheless.

Year
December Forecast
Likely Revised Pace
2013
2.3% to 3.0%
1.7% to 2.4%
2014
3.0% to 3.5%
N/A


Reductions to economic expectations will quell some of the latest enthusiasm generated by recent economic reports. They should also serve to settle stocks a bit, especially cyclical leaders within the financial and industrial sectors. Names like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) should soften short-term. Also, high beta stocks that may have been accelerating in an environment more accepting of risk might ease off a bit temporarily. For instance, biotech names lacking FDA news catalysts and ETFs like the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (NYSE: IBB) should see short-term softness as a result of the economic recalculation. The same should go for Tech and Telecom ideas like Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) and Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO).

However, I expect just a short-term slip here, as the economy does seem to have traction on the back of a finally recovering real estate sector and special opportunity therein. Low mortgage rates and dissipating distressed inventory are finally allowing for a favorable imbalance between supply and demand in housing. The sector has such broad reach that it affects the economy significantly. Though, the high flying (and high beta) housing stocks are vulnerable to profit taking if economic worries become excessive. Ancillary ideas like Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) are still attractive, though they are getting harder to find.

Capital wants to flow into equities, and it has been, given the start of a more positive outlook for the U.S. economy. Such capital flows and the relative strength of the U.S. versus some of the world’s other markets offer important supports that will only allow for slight slippage. However, partisan politics in the U.S. have been an obstacle to efficient recovery, and must be resolved in these times of perilous economic and financial consequences. This sequester issue has only served to shine a spotlight on the problem.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Christening set

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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

The Seriousness of the Sequester

sequesterThere’s a debate at play in the market this week as to whether the “Sequester” is serious enough of an issue to worry about or if it’s just an overblown political ploy. I for one do not see the Sequester as anywhere near as serious an issue for investors to consider or stocks to discount as the debt ceiling or the fiscal cliff, and I believe the market agrees. Still, there are some specific points about this Sequester issue that are still highly concerning, all of which focus attention on the silly way our politicians are going about our business and still failing at it.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Sequester

The Sequester is a set of self-inflicted wounds pending implementation on March 1st unless other offsetting action is taken by the government to redirect and control budget cuts. Dreamt up in 2011, the set of sequester cuts have been designed to be so undesirable to both political parties as to lead our politicians to a better compromise. However, even this self-destructive and politically preposterous consequence has so far been unable to get our bifurcated government to budge.

Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Bernanke opposes Sequestration, indicating that it adds an unnecessary burden to a not so hot economy. The impact of Sequestration is estimated by the Budget Office to be 0.6% against Real GDP growth this year. That contributes to a 1.5 percentage point drag to Real GDP caused by spending cuts this year, according to Bernanke’s prepared testimony to Congress this week. Chairman Bernanke adds that a slower recovery would actually lead to less deficit reduction due to its stifling of economic growth. Bernanke suggests replacing Sequestration with policies that reduce spending less dramatically in the near-term, though more substantially over the long-term.

Still, take note that the Sequester does not threaten to drive the economy into recession. We realize that our budget deficit is a serious long-term issue, especially if entitlement programs are not addressed. So bearing some cost now may be beneficial to us later. You might consider it like bearing fever while your body fights off a virus; it’s necessary though painful. And like the debt ceiling issue, controlling the budget should help to support the full faith in credit of the United States and so keep our borrowing rates manageable, but it does so in a very meaningful way. Raising the debt ceiling just sort of passes the buck. Unlike the fiscal cliff, the Sequester does not put as much direct pressure on the economy as a whole, but on sectors of it. Only certain consumers will be burdened instead of all of them or the most in need. Where the fiscal cliff threatened to drive the economy into recession, the sequester cuts (or cuts of some sort to replace them) represent a lesser drag but reflect important medicine.

Stocks have been moving lower off early year highs on fear, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) all volatile lately. However, today, as we near the implementation of the $85 billion in spending cuts scheduled for March 1st, the SPY, DIA and QQQ are actually gaining ground. Positive economic data is proving more powerful than the sequester threat.

While it’s unfortunate that the forced spending cuts aren’t leading the government to work together for better solutions, it’s worse that the defense sector gets held hostage for it. After feigns and fake outs too many other times though, the stocks in the sector have not flinched until recently. There’s a sort expectation that things will be worked out as always, but I’m not sure they will be this time. As you can see by the table below there’s no relative underperformance visible in the sector or the specific stocks listed against the performance of the SPY. Still, if the cuts go into effect stocks operating in the specific areas of cuts will likely see impact. Obviously, a heightening likelihood of the confrontation of Iran is working in the group’s favor and helping to support shares nonetheless.

Security
February Through 2/26
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.2%
PowerShares AeroSpace & Defense (NYSE: PPA)
+1.1%
General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)
+0.9%
Honeywell (NYSE: HON)
+1.9%
Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC)
Unchanged
Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL)
-0.1%


But what bothers me most about sequestration is the fact that the government had to resort to ploys to force itself into action, and what’s worse is that those ploys have not even worked as yet. All the government has done is shined the spotlight on itself and its weaknesses, and that only serves to further destabilize it and bring radical powers and parties into greater favor, like we are seeing now in Europe. Our representatives had better wake up and lead before they are replaced because of their ineptness, and by their own doing. As we stand today, I am not sure if Washington has done more to help stocks or to hold them up, but I am certain that it could do more for the investment sector.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Sunday, February 24, 2013

Real Estate is Fueling Inflation

Housing has served to quell prices generally over the past several years, but that’s all changing now. With real estate prices clearly on the rise, this important sector with its many tentacles threatens to give lift to prices of all sorts.

Rental Rate Rise
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) published this past week for the month of January showed pricing for shelter up 0.2% month-to-month, and it was up 2.2% for the year. Not all of the increase was due to the real estate recovery though. For instance, the real estate collapse almost immediately affected residential rental rates in an inflationary manner, because as homeownership diminished, shelter was still necessary. So, as demand for rentals increased, given limited supply, rental prices rose and they are still rising. The CPI report showed that rent and owner’s equivalent rent increased by 0.2% in January 2013. That’s good news for Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV) and peers but not for American renters.

Commercial Property Cull
The economic recession that followed the real estate collapse and financial sector crisis put pressure on commercial property leasing rates. But as the economy recovers, with accelerating GDP growth anticipated for this year and next by the Federal Reserve, commercial property rates should inflate in kind. Indeed, they have been and continue to appreciate.

Residential Rise
With distressed housing supply dissipating and with demand spurred by low rates and lower home prices; plus aided by the support of population and economic growth, residential housing prices are also finally on the rise. Indexes of home prices produced by the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller each indicate an apparent appreciating trend for real estate prices. It’s an important change from recent years past, with extensive consequences.

Materials Cost Increase
As demand for new homes and for home improvement products increase, so does demand for construction materials and the retailers which provide them, including Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW). Building materials and supply makers like USG (NYSE: USG), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) and Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST) should see raw materials costs increase but they are gaining more pricing power as well.

Higher Cost of Labor
The real estate collapse led to a massive purging of construction sector employment, with millions of laborers losing their jobs. Many of those former construction workers have moved on and found other work, and in some cases, careers. So as the sector recovers, a labor shortage has developed as confirmed to me by Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) executives earlier this month. Where supply does not meet demand, prices rise, and so labor costs for homebuilders should likewise be on the rise. All of these matters matter to homebuilders like Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) and Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV).

Peripheral Price Rise
Similarly, prices for the things that fill homes should gain support now. This means furniture makers and retailers and manufacturers of home items like Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen Interiors (NYSE: ETH), Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) should gain some pricing power as they see increasing demand.

Mortgage Rate Rise
Mortgage lenders are also benefiting from increasing demand for homes. Mortgage rates are on the rise despite the Fed’s best efforts to keep rates down through monetary policy and its asset purchase programs. We recently suggested that there is a lender shortage, due to the business fallout during the crisis and the regulatory rules established after the fact. Big banks like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) are contending with hefty aggregate loan balances, while the two and peers Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) also deal with the low returns available to them. This is drawing smaller players back into the game, but perhaps not fast enough.

As you can see, demand for shelter is an important factor in the inflation equation. It has extensive reach and broad consequences. Price gains here are symptomatic of a recovering economy and asset class, but they also mark cost of living increases for American consumers nonetheless. Inflation threatens and housing is one sure factor that will fuel it.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Friday, February 08, 2013

This Time is Different

risk

The Most Expensive Words in the English Language


Wishful thinking! Unfortunately this time is definitely not different. The business cycle will not be denied; it can be altered, it can be delayed, but it cannot be stopped. As in all cycles from recession to boom and back to recession, the excesses that become built up need to be resolved so the system can cleanse itself and recover. Inefficient industries and/or companies and mismanaged entities (public or private), and the accompanying debt will need to be re-structured or bankrupted. As mentioned in other articles, much of the global debt has been shifted from private debt to sovereign, federal, state, or municipal ledgers. Currently ultra-low, repressed, and manipulated interest rates allow for budgets to re-pay the interest carry, but certainly not the principal of global debt. New loans are created by central banks in a round robin of “borrowing to pay”. Eventually, the ultimate arbiter, the global currency and global bond market will demand either repayment in full or a much higher interest rate to justify increasing credit risk. This applies to even the most credit worthy stalwarts like Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States. Conservative investors may not appreciate the degree of real risk in the bond markets; I suggest even a small rate rise of just 1.0% could result in catastrophic losses as investors exit positions.

bearish economist
The current fiscal leadership including from the Federal Reserve, IMF, ECB, Bank of Japan and the rest of the G20 nations is attempting to liquidate the global banking system to inflate and hopefully grow the global economy. Fresh debt is added to the old debt and needy governments (Greece, Spain, Portugal, and perhaps Italy, France, Hungary, Cyprus etc.) accept the loans with the dimming hope of growing their economies. Programs of higher taxes and reduced spending through austerity programs are proving to be highly ineffective and have worsened already desperate situations. The policy of adding new debt to the old debt is adding to the burden. Resolution to the debt problem and the natural progression of the cycle are only delayed and the ultimate outcome made worse. I propose that a cyclical tidal wave is overdue as a result.

The bond markets have provided consistent income with growth of principal over the last 10 years or so. However, the winter season is rapidly approaching for bonds, and it is time to harvest assets and profits to prepare for the cold, dark nights and much shorter days, and to prepare for the spring that should just as surely come. There are many potential seismic triggers cocked: a Middle-East War, euro-zone breakup, rising rates in Japan, or my personal favorite, global recession; each is capable of causing enormous turmoil. There has been a shift in the financial world, a change of trends that may require a shift in investments. Two definite scenarios are possible: defaulting on the debt or inflating against the debt.

Government and corporate budgets are much the same as in a personal household. A boiling point of manageable debt and repayment costs is reached which extends beyond the household’s capability. There is only so much revenue, and when the outflows exceed the inflows, a breaking point is reached. This is an excess that needs to be resolved, perhaps by very radical means, because the problem spreads like a vicious cancer.

Nations such as Greece have had very difficult decisions to make. They can honor the debt and suffer for a decade or more with rising social unrest and higher unemployment. Somehow, perhaps miraculously, with reduced spending and austerity, the economy might improve. A more radical, but more immediate decision would be to default on the debt. The repayment burden would be removed with a return to the national currency. Local revenues would be curtailed somewhat, but even reduced revenues could be used to stimulate services and restart the economy. There would be turmoil, but measured in months to a couple of years instead of by decades.

Should such a solution spread to other burdened nations, it could become acceptable to default and a global rebalancing could occur. The result would be a severe mistrust of all fiat currencies and all sovereign debt, including U.S. debt. This mistrust would result in higher rates, significantly higher rates. This mistrust would also result in a shift of capital allocation to hard assets such as oil, gold, silver, farm land and agricultural commodities. It also would offer opportunity to all investors through investment in REITS and Real Estate. My personal favorite is the single family home in stable neighborhoods.

The inflation scenario is problematic for the bond market. Trillions of dollars have flooded into it throughout the world. The large multinational banks including the likes of Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Agricole (OTC: CRARY.PK), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) and many of the world’s largest corporations are hoarding reserves, reluctant to deploy capital.

In addition to the reserves, the losses to the housing bubble collapse are diminishing as the U.S. real estate market recovers. The black hole of foreclosures and short sales, which have destroyed immense capital, is closing and may be completely closed within 24 months should the economy skirt a recession. There exists a tremendous potential for pent-up demand to propel the real estate markets higher as former homeowners become eligible to purchase. This demand could provide one of the catalysts to spark the velocity of money and unleash a torrent of capital seeking a return. This flood of capital would drive prices higher and perhaps ignite inflation and overwhelm deflationary trends. Hard assets would be the destination of capital looking for a return, and my favorite, real estate prices, would trend higher. However, rising interest rates accompany inflation.

Rising rates have the potential to decimate a bond portfolio, particularly a long-term bond portfolio where many investors have parked conservative money. It has the potential to be catastrophic. Real estate can provide an income stream that grows and often mimics the rate of inflation. Yet, there are many alternatives to help balance a portfolio. Please check with your advisor and review investments, as a rebalancing may be in order.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, February 04, 2013

The True Unemployment Rate is 11.8% Not 7.9%

true unemployment rate
America deserves to know what the true rate of unemployment is, and it’s probably a lot higher than the reported rate. The government’s data excludes many Americans who have fallen out of the labor force, and not by choice. Not including these people assumes many have chosen early retirement, but the number of lottery winners hasn’t skyrocketed, so we think it’s more likely that these people have simply fallen off the radar screen. When Americans stop receiving unemployment benefits, their key incentive to report their unemployment to the government is lost. But even as they don’t report as unemployed, they live like they are. In our calculations here, we’ve determined true unemployment is likely 11.8%, not the 7.9% rate just reported by the government. Underemployment is likely closer to 17.9% than the government’s reported U-6 figure of 14.4%.

independent economist
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

True Unemployment Rate


Starting with the Reported Data
Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 157,000 on net in January, and private nonfarm payrolls (excluding public sector job creation) grew by 166K, short of the 185K economists’ consensus. The Unemployment Rate was likewise worse than expected, with the rate increasing to 7.9% from 7.8%, against the economists’ consensus forecast for an improvement to 7.7%. So the employment situation deteriorated in January, and was poor even before adjustment.

Underemployment incorporates people who are not satisfied with their less than full employment and also includes those desperate Americans who are detached from the labor force. However, even the traditional underemployment rate misses what may be a significant number of Americans who are not working and would like to be. To uncover those forgotten Americans, we replace the current labor participation rate with the one that existed when unemployment was under 5.0% instead. It makes sense to use such a participation rate if you believe population growth and the maturing of Americans at least matches the number of seniors retiring by choice and Americans passing away prematurely. Obviously there are demographic trends at play here that may be skewing the participation rate, including the aging of the baby boomers which is costing participation. Still, because of the relevant issue of long-term unemployment in America today and workers falling off the labor force radar screen while still interested in working, I believe these adjusted figures provide an important perspective of the true state of American labor.

Under-Employment
The calculation of the under-employment rate, or the U-6 by government notation, takes into account the number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons and the detached workforce. Working part-time for economic reasons is equivalent to folks who would prefer full-time employment but have had their hours cut or have had to otherwise settle for part-time work. Detached workers are those Americans who have not recently looked for work, sometimes because they do not believe work exists for them today. In getting to the U-6 underemployment figure, we’ll need to include these groups of workers with unemployed Americans. If we add back the excluded 2.443 million displaced workers to the labor market, and include the 7.973 million underemployed part-timers in the unemployed count, January underemployment is found to be ((12.332M + 2.443M + 7.973M) / (155.654M + 2.443M)) * 100 = 14.4%. In December, the rate was also ((12.206M + 2.614M + 7.918M) / (155.511M + 2.614M)) * 100 = 14.4%.

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This data can be skewed by any of its components. Starting with the denominator, the reported labor force count increased in January by 143K, which would dilute the numerator and moderate the unemployment rate. Note also that in January the number of detached workers decreased by 171K and the number of forced part-timers increased by 55K. It’s hard to say whether detached workers disappeared off the radar screen and or got part-time jobs or other work. Most importantly, the number of people reporting unemployed status was up by 126,000; it was also up in December by 164,000. That is an absolutely pure data point marking negative change in the employment situation. The end result of the changes in the component data netted into something less than significant enough to change the underemployment rate, versus the increase in unemployment reported in January.

Historically speaking, U-6 underemployment is improved, as you can see by the table here. However, this improvement may be for another reason (a bad one) which is unaccounted for by this data, and which we discuss in the paragraphs below.

Monthly Period
U-6 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
December 2009
17.1%
December 2010
16.6%
December 2011
15.2%
December 2012
14.4%
January 2013
14.4%


What About the Forgotten?
I often talk about the great degree of long-term unemployment plaguing our nation today and how this has uniquely impacted reported employment data. The number of Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or longer was relatively unchanged in January at roughly 4.7 million. This represented 38% of the total unemployed count. The proportion is down from recent history, though it continues to reflect poorly on the state of labor. That’s because the longer people remain unemployed, the harder it gets for them to find jobs in their specialty fields due to eroding and outdated skill sets. I’m concerned that improvement in the proportion of long-term unemployment is partly due to Americans simply falling out of the labor force count rather than finding new work.

For this reason, it’s worth considering what the unemployment rate might be at labor force participation rates seen in the recent past. The labor force participation rate was 63.6% in January 2013. That compares against 66.4% in December 2006. Now, maybe that past participation rate reflected the excesses of the mortgage, construction and finance industries that resulted from greed and the fault of the rating agencies and those industries. Those faults are still bearing out in layoffs, like the significant cuts announced last year by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and again late this year by Citigroup (NYSE: C). Still, let’s calculate what the unemployment rate would be at such a participation rate, because if the economy had not been so disrupted by the financial crisis, perhaps those employed in the synthetically fattened fields might have found other work.

Applying the 66.4% rate to the noninstitutional population count in January 2013, we get a civilian labor force count of 162,456,232, versus the 155,654,000 reported (Note calculation error exists because of the seasonal adjustment to the labor force count. I’ve attempted to back into that adjustment and apply it to the theorized labor force count, resulting in this figure for the adjusted labor force: 162,506,691). After that adjustment, the difference from this January’s workforce count is 6,852,691 million Americans who would be added to the unemployed count as well. So if those nearly 7 million Americans have simply fallen off the radar, the true unemployment rate could be as high as 11.8% (not 7.9%), which is up from 11.7% in December 2012. Likewise, the real underemployment rate could be as high as 17.9% today, which is unchanged from December 2012.

Those are significant figures reflecting a poorer state of health for American labor and the economy than the government’s calculations. It’s clear that we need to continue to stimulate job creation in America. Despite much of the recently celebrated economic data, excluding the just reported GDP contraction in Q4 2012, we cannot ignore this fact. Given the message conveyed by the very important GDP and employment reports, an economic reality check has indeed been served to the nation.

The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) have gained approximately 5.1%, 6.1% and 2.7%, respectively, year-to-date through January 2013. Fueled by massive capital flows and the removal of fiscal cliff fear and debt ceiling concerns, gains could continue. However, given these two important economic data points just reported, perhaps capital will be spread out to include lower beta bearing sectors and asset classes. The performance of employment services stocks Friday was mixed to modestly improved, perhaps reflecting the conflicting currents in the market. The shares of several of the nation’s largest employers, however, were decidedly higher, likely on those same capital flow and macroeconomic drivers discussed previously.

Stock
Friday’s Change
Robert Half Int’l (NYSE: RHI)
+0.7%
Korn Ferry Int’l (NYSE: KFY)
+0.5%
Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW)
-0.2%
Manpower (NYSE: MAN)
+1.5%
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)
+0.8%
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD)
+0.7%
Target (NYSE: TGT)
+1.2%
Sears (NYSE: SHLD)
+1.3%


The increase in the flow of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims last week also offered a reminder to investors who have perhaps overdone the celebration. However, remember that stocks will tend to lead the economy by approximately 6 months. In conclusion, the economic takeaway here should be that America’s unemployment situation could be significantly understated. Fiscal and monetary policy should thus remain supportive of economic growth, and job creation and small business support should be given highest priority.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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