Inflation Fear is Spooking Stocks

It was just a sniff, mind you, but it was of a foul odor. A whiff of inflation seen in the monthly Consumer Price Index data held back stocks Tuesday morning that I believe would have otherwise gained from the get-go. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) later resurfaced, as it was but a hint of bad news. However, it issues investors a warning of the possibility of a really poor scenario for stocks longer term. See my full report here.

Sector Security	03-24-15 Thru Noon
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)	+0.1%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)	-0.0%
Fidelity NASDAQ  ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)	+0.2%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)	-0.0%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)	-0.9%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+0.1%
WisdomTree US$  Bullish (NYSE: USDU)	+0.3%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)	+0.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

This is Fed Market Manipulation

The U.S. Federal Reserve cleared the way for a relief rally in the stock market Wednesday with its Monetary Policy Statement release. Despite removing its cautionary language – namely the word “patient” – it added enough new cautionary discussion to offset any resulting negative market interpretation. The Fed pretty well spelled out relief with several strong and strange statements about its plans, but the market still has its doubts. Fed rate hikes seemed to be on the horizon before Wednesday, but it’s clear now that the Fed will simply play this by ear for as long as the dollar is in play. Has the Fed gone too far and turned transparency into outright market manipulation? See my full report on Fed market manipulation here.

Market Sector Security	03-19-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.6%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.2%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.2%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.4%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-4.2%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why the Great Jobs Report was Bad for Stocks

It’s counterintuitive right? How could a great jobs report hurt stocks? Oftentimes, data strikes the stock market in a manner unexpected by the logical thinker. People expect good news to act on stocks like good news logically should. Well, I have news for you; good economic news is ultimately good news for stocks, but in the case of this jobs report, the good news is bad news for stocks today because of how it might influence the U.S. Federal Reserve, and how the Federal Reserve might influence stocks as a result. See my full report on how a great jobs report is bad for stocks here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), Vanguard Total Market (NYSE: VTI), Robert Half (NYSE: RHI) and iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

FRIDAY’S MARKET – Good Jobs News is Bad Market News

This day will without a doubt be dictated by the most important economic report in terms of market following. The monthly Employment Situation Report certainly deserves the attention today, as it came in astoundingly strong in a period that could have easily shown weakness on bad weather. Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate improved far beyond expectations, which is good news about the American economy. However, that is bad news for investors, because it seems to push the U.S. Federal Reserve closer to interest rate hikes. We cover the market daily at our stock market blog at a level unmatched.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Sector Security	3-5-15	YTD	TTM
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)	+0.1%	2.5%	14.1%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)	+0.2%	2.8%	13.1%
Fidelity NASDAQ  ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)	+0.4%	6.0%	15.8%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)	-0.2%	1.3%	-23.9%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)	+0.6%	2.1%	39.3%
ProShares Ultra Oil (NYSE: UCO)	-2.1%	-14.4%	-75.5%
WisdomTree US$  Bullish (NYSE: USDU)	+0.4%	3.3%	15.0%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)	-0.1%	-0.4	21.9%

Economic Report Schedule

Economists and market strategists alike will be focused on one data point Friday. The most widely followed economic report has been released, the monthly Employment Situation Report. It was better than expected for the month of February, but remember, good news is bad news now because of how it affects the Fed’s rate plans.

Nonfarm Payrolls showed job creation of 295K for the frigid month, far better than what was expected at 230K. Though January’s payroll figure was revised lower to 239K; December was unchanged above 300K. Private nonfarm payrolls also beat expectations, marking 288K jobs created versus expectations for 225K. Again the prior month was revised lower to 237K. The unemployment rate improved to 5.5%, where economists thought it would improve to 5.6%, from January’s 5.7%. Labor force participation deteriorated, though, so there will be the usual debate about whether the unemployment rate really tells the story.

Nonetheless, the jobs data was clearly positive, where a negative report could have been blamed on the weather. While revisions may later come, today investors have to contend with the fact that the economy appears to be doing better than expected. That means the Federal Reserve could be backed into a corner and forced to raise interest rates sooner than even they might like to, given recent dollar muscle building. As a result of the super strong report, stock futures moved lower before the open and it looks like the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) will have a slow start to the day.

ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected	Actual
FRIDAY
Employment Situation Report
-Nonfarm Payrolls	239K*	230K	295K
-Private Payrolls	237K*	225K	288K
-Unemployment Rate	5.7%	5.6%	5.5%
International Trade	$-45.6 B*	$-41.8 B	$-41.8 B
Consumer Credit	$14.8 B	$15.0 B	3 PM ET

 *Revised

EPS Report Schedule

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is being added to the Dow Jones Industrial average, which I see as a positive for Apple and the Dow. For Apple, funds that track the Dow must now buy Apple, and so the stock rose 1.6% to start the day. The Dow, and the SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA) benefit because it is a price-weighted index, and Apple is sure to move the index with its superior price action to the company it replaces, AT&T (NYSE: T). The earnings day includes Staples (Nasdaq: SPLS) and Big Lots (NYSE: BIG).

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
FRIDAY
Big Lots	NYSE: BIG
Cheetah Mobile	Nasdaq: CMCM
Chimerix	Nasdaq: CMRX
Foot Locker	NYSE: FL
Furmanite	NYSE: FRM
Global Sources	Nasdaq: GSOL
Gramercy Property Trust	NYSE: GPT
KVH Industries	Nasdaq: KVHI
Monroe Capital	Nasdaq: MRCC
New Home Co.	Nasdaq: NWHM
Noah Holdings	Nasdaq: NOAH
OFS Capital	NYSE: OFS
Southcross Energy Partners	NYSE: SXE
Staples	Nasdaq: SPLS
Tribune Media	Nasdaq: TRCO
Vantage Drilling	NYSE: VTG
Verso	NYSE: VRS

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

De Blasio's Blunder & Chris Christie's Crackup Screwed Up the Jobs Report

Regarding the Jobless Claims Report that showed claims lower than expected this week, which some in the media are pointing to as a reason to rally this morning; remember that worst blizzard in history thing? Yeah, well, no matter how weakly it panned out for much of the Northeast, thanks to the perhaps panicked actions of critically important governors and mayors it still paralyzed people across the most congested region of this nation. In Boston and parts of Long Island it actually did snow a lot and kept people indoors too. As a result, the phantom storm likely kept a good number of people from making it to report their loss of employment. And there’s a good reason for the prior week’s weakness as well, so I suggest looking to a different catalyst today if you want a real reason to buy stocks. See our full jobless claims report here. Article matters to SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), Vanguard Total Market (NYSE: VTI), Robert Half (NYSE: RHI), Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.