Investors Need to Understand this About Durable Goods Orders

After the Durable Goods Orders data was reported this morning, I noticed a notable downshift in S&P 500 futures. Investors are quick to perceive bad news where it may not necessarily be these days. This data point was expected to be bad on the headline, and it was, but when excluding transportation it was relatively unchanged though still short of expectations. Now transportation does include rail, and rail is integrally tied to the energy industry today, so perhaps there is a fire after all. It all depends on how low you anticipate energy prices to fall and for how long. And it also depends on how deep you expect the damage to reach, because as of today, a good portion of our economy is still benefiting from lower energy prices. Low oil prices may be bad for the energy sector and portions of manufacturing but it’s still probably a net push or positive for the overall American economy. A slowing China, volatile Europe and frenzied emerging markets along with questionable export environment, however, exacerbate concern. Still, the Fed remains accommodative; we just wish they would say so a little more clearly. Now let’s examine the important takeaways from today’s Durables data. See the full report on Durable Goods Orders here.

Market Sector Security	09-24-15 Open
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-1.1%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-1.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.8%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.0%
iPath S&P 500 ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+5.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Fed Meeting Preview – My Take

There is a great deal of uncertainty around this Fed rate decision, and it may not only be in the marketplace. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) itself will probably show division when it comes to its conclusion today. I think the market’s confusion was evident by the last two days of trading, which I discuss in more detail herein. Markets are unsure for good reason, given previous Fed forecasts and the outside influences upon the two Fed mandates of managing monetary policy for employment and inflation. While everything is on the table today, it should be a good day for stocks given what we have priced in already – I think. Obviously, everything depends on what the Fed actually says and does. It’s quite ironic that this Fed, which has made such strides toward transparency, finds itself in such a confused situation. See our full Fed meeting preview here.

Sector Security	Wednesday 09-16-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.85%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.84%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.56%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.82%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.28%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+1.3%
iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond (NYSE: TLT)	-0.38%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Regarding Consumer Sentiment it Depends on Who You Ask

Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment were both reported this week. One figure showed a severe drop-off in sentiment and the other indicated things were just a little less good. So which measure is correct? Well, it may be that both are true, because with regard to American consumers today, it depends on who you ask. If you’re talking to someone in Silicon Valley, well then you’re going to hear about how great the world is. If you’re talking to someone in Texas today though, you might get a different story. See my full story on consumer sentiment here.

Stock Name and Symbol	Today’s % Change
Alcoa (NYSE: AA)	+1.9%
American Express (NYSE: AXP)	-1.0%
Boeing (NYSE: BA)	-0.5%
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)	-0.1%
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)	+0.1%
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)	-0.5%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	+0.8%
Dupont (NYSE: DD)	-0.5%
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS)	-4.6%
General Electric (NYSE: GE)	-0.3%
Home Depot (NYSE: HD)	-0.9%
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ)	-0.4%
IBM (NYSE: IBM)	-0.7%
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)	-0.6%
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)	-0.9%
J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM)	-0.3%
Kraft Heinz (NYSE: KHC)	-0.9%
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)	-0.4%
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD)	-0.0%
3M Company (NYSE: MMM)	-0.9%
Merck (NYSE: MRK)	-0.7%
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)	-1.8%
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)	-1.5%
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)	+0.2%
AT&T (NYSE: T)	-1.3%
Travelers (NYSE: TRV)	-0.7%
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX)	-0.2%
Verizon (NYSE: VZ)	-0.4%
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)	-0.9%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	+1.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Misread - Why Q2 GDP Actually Beat Forecasts

In its first reporting, second quarter GDP was reported up 2.3% this morning. Stock futures were edging lower into the release and stocks accelerated their pessimism after the news. Take heed though: While the data was lower than economists’ consensus expectations at surface inspection, there was a significant upward adjustment to the first quarter data that when taken into account would make this data more than acceptable. If stocks were to accurately reflect the message of this data, then they would be rising today. Thus, as the data is better understood, stocks should benefit, and I fully anticipate a market closing in the green today or recovering tomorrow. However, there is a caveat, which is that China economic growth deceleration (with a watchful eye on Europe as well) and energy sector troubles do not infect the U.S. economy significantly in the months ahead; and that the Fed will not err in its decision making. If you believe that is the case and you are a long-term investor willing to bear likely near-term volatility, then you own stocks but with powder dry on the side to invest on any significant decline between now and the end of the year (it is well overdue and will probably come). See the full stock market report here.

Sector Security	Midday	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%	+3.5%	+9.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.1%	+0.8%	+7.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.2%	+8.9%	+16.3%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.3%	+3.3%	+8.6%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-0.6%	-9.0%	-25.9%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	-0.0%	+3.1%	+12.5%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK)	-0.06%	+4.2%	+9.2%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	-0.4%	+11.8%	+24.3%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY)	+0.1%	+12.0%	+20.4%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.3%	+5.5%	+17.8%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	+0.4%	-5.0%	-5.8%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	+0.9%	-7.3%	+6.8%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

This Issue Will Push the Fed Toward Liftoff

In the long-biased and hopeful stock market, and the media that follows it, it seems to me that a great deal of the discussion around the Federal Reserve has to do with reasoning against a near-term interest rate hike. There is doubt about the Fed’s plan for liftoff, and I guess skepticism is sensible given how long it has been since the Fed last tightened monetary policy. However, reasons also exist today that are pushing the Fed toward a near-term interest rate hike. This is one of them, heating inflation. See the report on the Fed here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why the Iran Deal & Retail Sales Matter to the Fed & the Market

Tuesday’s market looked to be running into headwinds in the early AM, because weak retail sales were reported this morning for the U.S. economy. Also, an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program threatens to drive energy prices lower and detrimentally impact the U.S. economy. However, by noon investors were speculating that the bad news could serve them by holding off the Fed. Of course, much of their speculation will be forced to face reality when the Fed Chair speaks to Congress this week. While the rally may have some support here, let’s not forget that while a little bad news may be nice for fending off the Fed, recessions are worse for stocks than justified rate hikes. See the full report on Iran & the market here.

Market Sector Security	At the Open 7-14-15	At Noon
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.1%	+0.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.0%	+0.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.3%	+0.6%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.1%	+0.6%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+0.1%	+0.4%
iPath S&P VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-0.3%	-2.3%

Auto Company Shares	7-14-15 11:30 AM EDT
Ford (NYSE: F)	+0.7%
General Motors (NYSE: GM)	+0.8%
Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)	+1.1%
Toyota (NYSE: TM)	+0.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.