Feeling Around the Fed

Stocks have been hemming and hedging for quite some time heading into today’s announcement from the Federal Reserve. So, for some time now I’ve been anticipating (internally here) a potential breakout on the relieving news of no June rate action, especially given the distance between today and September. However, I’m now worried that any rally could be cut short due to what the Fed indicates through its economic forecasts and the famed dot-plot indicating its expectations for the Fed Funds Rate. That data along with the usually controlled and consoling press conference of the Fed Chair could still raise some question about the possibility of an earlier action. And then there is Greece and relative European and global financial market repercussions, which seems to continue to cap hope for stocks for as long as it remains in play. Because of the uncertainty that exists around these issues and the possibility that it may linger after the Fed release, bets placed ahead of this event are probably not wise in either direction. Moves in stocks today could be altered by later news out of Europe, U.S. economic data and the pending parade of Fed member speaking engagements that follows every FOMC announcement. See my report on the Fed announcement here.

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