What Does U.S. Investor Confidence Drop Mean for 2016?

State Street (NYSE: SST) reports monthly on global investor confidence and this month’s report showed confidence waned in the United States in December. Confidence rose in Europe and Asia, taking the global measure up with it, but what does the drop in the U.S. mean for American investors as we head into 2016? Learn more about investor confidence and what it means here.

Regionally Speaking	December Change	December Level
Global Confidence	+1.0	108.3
North American	-5.9	106.6
Europe	+7.5	103.7
Asia	+4.6	105.1

Sector Security	Nov 27 – Dec 28
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.9%
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-1.3%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-10%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)	-19%
Market Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)	-11%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-3.3%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-2.6%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long XLE. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS)..

The Stinking Media Misled Investors Again - Retail Sales Were Strong!

The media got it wrong from the very moment the data was released Friday morning. From the immediate television review of the release I watched to the multiple articles written by reporters on the subject, the October Retail Sales Report was mostly misreported. Retail sales were not bad at all in October; in fact, they met economists’ expectations when weeding out the volatile swing lower in gasoline prices (a good thing for consumers). Unfortunately, many concerned investors apparently reacted to the fast-talking media and sold off stocks, likely partly due to the reporting. That is because about the worst thing that can happen to stocks is for the economy to fall toward recession and this data point was supposed to be presenting the specter of such risk. It would be far worse than a Fed rate hike, and it likely helped stocks significantly lower on Friday. Fortunately, the truth is retail sales were healthy in October. See the full report on how the stinking media screwed over investors again here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. This article should interest investors in The New York Times (NYSE: NYT), Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI), A.H. Belo (NYSE: AHC), Daily Journal (NYSE: DJCO), Journal Communications (NYSE: JRN), Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE), Media General (NYSE: MEG), E.W. Scripps (NYSE: SSP), McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI), The Washington Post (NYSE: WPO), Dex One (Nasdaq: DEXO), Martha Stewart Living (NYSE: MSO), Meredith (NYSE: MDP), Private Media (Nasdaq: PRVT), Reed Elsevier (NYSE: ENL), Reed Elsevier Plc (NYSE: RUK), Dolan Co. (NYSE: DN), Disney (NYSE: DIS), DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA), Cinemark Holdings (NYSE: CNK), Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC), RealD (NYSE: RLD), Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), Rentrak (Nasdaq: RENT), Carmike Cinemas (Nasdaq: CKEC), LYFE Communications (OTC: LYFE.OB), New Frontier Media (Nasdaq: NOOF), Public Media Works (OTC: PUBM.OB), Independent Film Development (OTC: IFLM.OB), Point 360 (Nasdaq: PTSX), Seven Arts Pictures (Nasdaq: SAPX), Affinity Medianetworks (OTC: AFFW.OB), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWSA), Vivendi (Paris: VIV.PA), Liberty Starz Group (Nasdaq: LSTZA), McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP), Pearson Plc (NYSE: PSO), John Wiley & Sons (NYSE: JW-A, NYSE: JW-B), Scholastic (Nasdaq: SCHL), Courier (Nasdaq: CRRC), Noah Education (NYSE: NED), Peoples Educational Holdings (Nasdaq: PEDH), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Books-A-Million (Nasdaq: BAMM).

Why the Jobs Report has been Volatile

I expect investors and maybe some economists are wondering why the monthly Employment Situation Report data has been so volatile lately. Nonfarm payrolls have varied significantly recently. The data makes for uncertainty in securities markets, which are now attempting to discern what the Federal Reserve might decide to do in December. However, I believe the cause of the variance has a simple explanation. See the full report on jobs here.

Month	Nonfarm Payrolls
October	+271
September	+137
August	+153
July	+245

Labor & Business Services Stocks

Robert Half (NYSE: RHI)

Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY)

Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW)

Manpower (NYSE: MAN)

51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS)

Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX)

Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC)

TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI)

Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX)

Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA)

CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI)

Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN)

On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN)

AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS)

Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI)

Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP)

StarTek (NYSE: SRT)

RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT)

VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP)

American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB)

Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB)

iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB)

St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB)

General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB)

Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB)

TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF)

Stratum (OTC: STTH.PK)

Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB)

Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Read - Sink or Swim on the Jobs Report?

Stocks are likely to mostly slip in early trading Friday after a strong monthly jobs report was published. Positive economic data signals lead investor expectations toward a Fed rate action for December, which while perhaps appropriate is still unsavory for most companies and for good reason. Fear not, though, as this early indicator only has so much punch. Given the fact that the Fed December meeting is still a ways away, and given the seasonal influence of capital flows, I expect stocks to bounce back. I’m looking at the $208 level on the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) as a test point for any declne Friday, and that is where I expect stocks should stabilize and bounce back from. Keep in mind that the important financial sector mostly benefits from higher interest rates and acts as a counterbalance to other equity softness, limiting today’s impact. Also remember that a strong economy justifies higher interest rates and is the best of all long-term drivers for stocks. Though, until the December Fed meeting today’s data point places a cap on the stock market’s upside potential. Keep in mind that more data (economic and other) will follow that could change the dynamics. See the full report on the stock market here.

Market Sectors & Specific Issues	11-06-15 Early Trade
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.1%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.2%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+1.7%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+1.2%
iShares Nasdaq Biotech (Nasdaq: IBB)	-0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stocks – Day of Reckoning is Here

Stocks soared in October as far as the laymen can see, but active investors are all too well aware of the struggle it took to get this far. This first week of November brings with it an influential economic data point that the Fed is paying close attention to. As a result, investment direction is hinged to it as well, but is good news good news or is bad news good news, and how bad is too bad? These are some of the questions investors will want to work out on Friday on yet another day of reckoning. See the full report on the day of reckoning here.

Sector Securities	October Price Performance
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+8.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+8.6%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+11.4%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+5.6%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+7.9%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+0.6%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+2.2%
iPath S&P GSCI Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+1.5%
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (NYSE: IBB)	+7.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Export Decline - Fed Crack Addicts Can't Get Enough

Key economic data, the International Trade Report for the month of August, showed a severe drop in exports this week. Does this mean the economic impact of China, the emerging markets, and maybe Europe, is worse than traders hooked on hope for a Fed-rate action need it to be? Are we in danger of entering recession, which would change the game altogether and send stocks into a bear market? This is something we need to be considering, despite my own inclination to buy on the Fed indication. See the full report on the decline in exports here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

Should we be Worried about the Deep Drop of Chicago PMI into Contraction Territory?

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its Chicago PMI data and it was troubling. The index of regional manufacturing fell to a level indicative of economic contraction. It’s not the first time this year for an underwater result, though we note that the economy has grown generally despite softness in this data point. Still, the depth of decline in September raises a specter of doubt about the impact of the China slowdown, European issues and U.S. energy sector woes on our economy. Whatever the cause, there may be reason for concern about the American economy, though we may have to wait for another month or two of data to determine whether that is true or not. Even so, more data is due Thursday on the American and Chinese economies that could confirm concerns and alter the path of stocks from Wednesday’s appreciation to something else. See the report analyzing Chicago PMI here.

Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

What does the Sudden Drop in Mortgage Activity mean for Real Estate?

Mortgage applications declined sharply in the just reported period. Given what’s going on today in financial markets, and some recently poor signs in other housing data, I thought we should examine and discuss whether this is a warning sign for real estate or not. In the end, a simple explanation looks like the culprit behind the decline, and it is not one that worries me about real estate moving forward. See the report on mortgage applications and what the dip means. 

Real Estate Relative Shares	09-30-15 Intraday
iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)	+0.4%
MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG)	+0.1%
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)	+0.4%
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB)	+0.8%
PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM)	-0.3%
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI)	+0.6%
Ryland (NYSE: RYL)	-1.9%
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL)	+0.03%
Lennar (NYSE: LEN)	+1.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Investors Need to Understand this About Durable Goods Orders

After the Durable Goods Orders data was reported this morning, I noticed a notable downshift in S&P 500 futures. Investors are quick to perceive bad news where it may not necessarily be these days. This data point was expected to be bad on the headline, and it was, but when excluding transportation it was relatively unchanged though still short of expectations. Now transportation does include rail, and rail is integrally tied to the energy industry today, so perhaps there is a fire after all. It all depends on how low you anticipate energy prices to fall and for how long. And it also depends on how deep you expect the damage to reach, because as of today, a good portion of our economy is still benefiting from lower energy prices. Low oil prices may be bad for the energy sector and portions of manufacturing but it’s still probably a net push or positive for the overall American economy. A slowing China, volatile Europe and frenzied emerging markets along with questionable export environment, however, exacerbate concern. Still, the Fed remains accommodative; we just wish they would say so a little more clearly. Now let’s examine the important takeaways from today’s Durables data. See the full report on Durable Goods Orders here.

Market Sector Security	09-24-15 Open
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-1.1%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-1.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.8%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.0%
iPath S&P 500 ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+5.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

De Blasio's Blunder & Chris Christie's Crackup Screwed Up the Jobs Report

Regarding the Jobless Claims Report that showed claims lower than expected this week, which some in the media are pointing to as a reason to rally this morning; remember that worst blizzard in history thing? Yeah, well, no matter how weakly it panned out for much of the Northeast, thanks to the perhaps panicked actions of critically important governors and mayors it still paralyzed people across the most congested region of this nation. In Boston and parts of Long Island it actually did snow a lot and kept people indoors too. As a result, the phantom storm likely kept a good number of people from making it to report their loss of employment. And there’s a good reason for the prior week’s weakness as well, so I suggest looking to a different catalyst today if you want a real reason to buy stocks. See our full jobless claims report here. Article matters to SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), Vanguard Total Market (NYSE: VTI), Robert Half (NYSE: RHI), Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.