Ticking Fiscal Cliff Clock Costing Economy Today

The likelihood of the American economy slipping into economic recession increases with each passing day. We are not okay up until the day tax rates increase and other stimulus disappear. No, rather, because of the stifling situation brought about by Congressional gridlock, businesses have frozen discretionary capital spending plans that are supportive to the economy. In the absence of such spending, economic growth is hampered today and every day heading into January 1st.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Fiscal Cliff

This article is not measuring the impact of falling off the fiscal cliff, which many experts say could drive the economy into recession and most agree will significantly hamper economic growth. Rather, I want to point out that the stifling impact on business plans is affecting the economy today and every single day in which this situation is not mitigated.

Now, let’s not ignore the philosophical differences of opinion with regard to taxes and economic drivers. Republicans and Democrats are not simply protecting constituents, at least not for the most part. They are also seeking to employ economic tactics which they believe will spur economic growth and help balance the budget at the same time. Opinions vary, and the philosophical divide is vast. Where should the threshold dividing the rich and the poor be marked, and at what point or income level does taxation stifle economic growth? What is fair and consistent with the ethos of American capitalism? These are important questions at the root of the argument and so the debate and discussion is at least somewhat just. Still, compromise is the key for our leaders to keep philosophical divide from damaging us all in their efforts to save America.

It is clear by the actions of the stock market that this fiscal cliff issue is important for tomorrow but also for today. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is down 7.4% since its September peak, and I expect it will continue downward without resolution to the fiscal cliff issue. The industrials are lower as well, with the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) down 7.1% since its fall peak, and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) is lower 11% from its top mark. The message has been multi-fold, beginning with the realization that corporate earnings season would not support the valuations achieved by stocks on central bank fluffing. The second hit came with the reelection of President Obama, which was clearly a let down to the investment community. And now it is the lock-on focus of investors and businessmen on the critical economic change in store for the close of the year.

Small businessmen were reported to be more optimistic lately, but that was based on a survey taken before the election and likely on the expectation of a different result. Consumers, less sophisticated and sensitive to economic warnings, will react to higher taxes and deteriorated economic conditions should they dawn in 2013. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY) is only off its high for the year (trailing 52 weeks) by 5.6%, but retailers are bearing the cost of long-lasting soft economic conditions and tighter competition for fewer dollars. The SPDR S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT) is off by 7.1%, and there is a clear shift in spending accelerating toward discounters like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) away from the traditional stores and marketplaces.

In times past, we could look overseas for support to American exports for companies like Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and bellwethers like General Electric (NYSE: GE), but Europe is actually deteriorating, not improving. China’s growth is volatile due to its ties to the west, and its data is questionable due to corruption and inadequate reporting. The last thing we need today is a severe disruption to domestic business activity, and so some sort of compromise must be accomplished. In addition, I believe that any support to the budget garnered from revenue generation (taxes) should be cautiously undertaken, limited in reach and focused to avoid damage. It’s not yet time to put broad belts across the waist of the economy, but rather to cure inefficiencies in capital distribution toward economic growth initiatives. I’ll continue to independently cover this critical issue and aspects of the economy for the sake of all Americans, so stay tuned.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Merkel Hypocrite!

Germany’s Finance Ministry warned in a monthly report Monday that Europe’s largest economy would mark a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter. In an attempt to mitigate the economic issue, German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week suggested opposing German political party members stop blocking her proposed tax cuts. Merkel indicated that the German economy needed economic stimulus, and that tax cuts should help domestic economic growth by giving her countrymen more money to spend. Likewise, she is promoting pension contribution cuts to help German prosperity, and advising companies to give more lucrative pay increases to their employees. Sounds sensible no?

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Now imagine the perspective of a Southern European onlooker. The hypocritical divergence of the two directives being issued to the various groups must fill Greeks with disgust. European leaders, at the nudging of Germany, have pushed the complete opposite strategy for Greek and Spanish prosperity than those being promoted in Germany today. So which is the true path to prosperity, the one being promoted by the Germans for the Germans or the one being promoted by the Germans for the Greeks?

Obviously, the issue is more complex than that, given the debt and management problems of the Greeks versus the smooth operating German economic machine. The Greeks must adhere to the prescription of their emergency creditors in order to receive desperately needed funds. Still, why does the economic prescription contrast so sharply to the pill being recommended by Merkel for the Germans? It is after all for the same ultimate purpose, the betterment of the economy, and in Greece’s situation, the ensuring of debt repayment.

Perhaps the Europeans have it all wrong with regard to Greece, and instead of ensuring the repayment of their loans, are instead burying their money into a deep depression with the ruins of Ancient Athens. That’s what the esteemed student of the Great Depression now running the American Federal Reserve might suggest, given Ben Bernanke’s comments to U.S. legislators over the years. He would tell you that it was precisely the mistimed budget mindedness of American leaders that led our economy into the Great Depression. It turned an average recession into a once in a generation economic struggle.

A few voices, including from yours truly, have from the beginning warned that growth spurring initiatives for Southern Europe should precede and outweigh a graduated austerity program, and that Greece’s repayment program should have extended terms. We have been happy to see Europe more recently acknowledging the burdensome drag of its initial repayment demands.

Still, while Greece’s public entities reduce workforce, draw back pension benefits and raise taxes, they are constraining the Greek economy. This is something that the Germans can no longer dispute, given their own domestic policy push, though to be fair, Merkel’s opponents are calling her demands irresponsible. The repercussions of the actions in Greece are pushing away private industry, illustrated recently by the move of Coca-Cola Hellenic (NYSE: CCH), which is relocating its headquarters to Switzerland and relisting its shares in London. Merkel does not want to trigger that same sort of flight in Germany, but is asking for companies that face no foreign competition to pay an alternative energy surcharge from which they have long been exempted.

What drives German stocks, like those found in the DAX and the iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG), likewise drives Greek stocks, like those found in the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK). For that matter, it’s what drives the iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV) and the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)! The rules of economic prosperity are indifferent to the language spoken or culture found within a given country; they are universal. Thus, the economic policy prescribed to Greece and Spain should be the same as that being recommended for Germany, or at least should stress growth over austerity.

It is ignorant closed-mindedness and ethnocentricity which has kept the groups of people within the euro-zone from fairly and effectively resolving their crisis together. The problem is most clear when the leaders of Europe go home to seek approval of international plans. We understand the cost of this issue through the observance of the most effective action taken to-date, which in my opinion was the brave plan of the Mario Draghi led European Central Bank (ECB) to support sovereign debt in a sterilized manner. When Europe can accept its unity on the streets of Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Athens and Madrid, then it will have the resources and the will to fulfill its brave dream. On that day, it can likewise stop lying to the Greeks and the Spaniards about what’s best today for their economies.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Team USA Olympic Uniforms Made in China

Just a couple weeks ahead of the start of the Summer Olympics of 2012, controversy surrounds the USA Olympic Team. Team USA’s parade uniforms, produced by Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), were made in China. That has congressmen like Harry Reid saying they should be burned and replaced by American made clothing, even if that means they are t-shirts with painted-on graphics. He said that would be better than outsourcing the uniforms that will represent our entire nation on the world stage. The position crosses political parties of course, as “American made” is something both Republicans and Democrats can stand behind, at least on the surface. Obviously, views vary on how to handle trade with China and what to do for American manufacturing. On the patriotic topic at issue, House Speaker John Boehner sincerely commented, “You’d think they’d know better.”

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

USA Olympic Uniforms Made in China

Still, I found myself nodding as I listened to the wisdom of an anonymous C-SPAN caller this morning. The unknown American on the line said the Congressional uproar was hypocrisy at its highest. He said most congressmen should be required to wear corporate and other logos across their sharp suits. That way we could see where they were made – those are my words. Instead of Perry Ellis (Nasdaq: PERY), we would probably find the backs of our representatives weighed down by China and a slew of companies that need a little extra support in DC to carry a heavy conscience.

You know who I’m talking about, people like big oil, insurance companies, pharmaceutical makers, the food block etc. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) don’t need government subsidies while they rake in record profits. Neither does Aetna (NYSE: AET), CIGNA (NYSE: CI) or any of the other health insurance giants need a legal loophole to deny health insurance to needy Americans. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Merck (NYSE: MRK) shouldn’t have extra support to address “national initiatives” like the fight against obesity if that means lowering FDA standards. Neither does Monsanto (NYSE: MON) have free reign to bully farmers into using their seeds, as alleged by some farmers. Food producers like Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), Hormel (NYSE: HRL) and Smithfield (NYSE: SFD) should not be abusing nature for the sake of productivity. There’s no excuse for unethical or immoral behavior, and neither is there for congressmen who support it because of campaign financing or even for the sake of local economies. And that’s from a capitalist, but one who cares about doing the right thing.

You know, Ralph Lauren shouldn’t be singled out. The USA Basketball Team will be wearing Nike (NYSE: NKE) gear made beyond our borders, and others will be wearing Adidas (OTC: ADDYY) products – that’s a German company. You know who else will be wearing Chinese made uniforms? The Chinese Olympic Team will. A survey of the Team USA Shop website shows that a great majority of the products for sale were not made in America. I could find only one American Olympic Team outfitted with American made uniforms. The U.S. Rowing Team will be wearing uniforms made by Philadelphia-based Boathouse Sports. Both deserve credit for that seemingly obvious decision that turned out to be admirable because of its uniqueness.

Now I have to ask you a question though. Things are made in China, India and where labor is cheaper so that American companies can provide cheaper goods to Americans who demand them. Sure, profit margins have expanded, but truth be told, the American consumer benefits. It’s clear by the growth of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), Costco (Nasdaq: COST) and the dollar stores like my favorite, Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR), that America demands these things. Would you pay more money for American made goods? In the past, you have not, and that’s why the American textile industry diminished. So maybe we have ourselves to blame for this embarrassing turn of events.

While watching a local TV news broadcast, I noted another view. A man on the street interview turned up a pure capitalist, who pointed out that these goods were still the products of American companies, not Chinese. He said that the design and the production specifics were still dictated by Americans, and that’s what we do best now. So should we be embarrassed or not that we do not manually produce goods we design and engineer? Maybe we can even be proud of our advancement, and direction of human capital toward higher level business activity. After all, made in China doesn’t necessarily mean Chinese. It can also mean made by American companies at a lower cost, with fattened profits for the companies we own in our retirement accounts and other investments. Yet, some Americans are made for manufacturing, and are left unemployed or working behind a checkout counter or stocking shelves instead of a production line. So, it turns out, there’s more than one way to look at this issue. What do you think?

Visit us at Wall Street Greek for more insight like this. This article should interest those invested in socially responsible themed funds including Legg Mason Inv Counsel Social Aware A (SSIAX), VALIC Company II Socially Responsible (VCSRX), Neuberger Berman Socially Responsible Inv (NBSRX) and Vanguard FTSE Social Index Inv (VFTSX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

A Crisis of Injustice

I see the media pumping the wire with warnings of a fiscal cliff we all know very well will be legislated away. I ask, what of the unemployment cliff and the forgotten folks falling off of it every single day?

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Weekly Jobless Claims was reported effectively unchanged for the latest covered period, but unchanged is synonymous with stagnant, which will lead to a spoiling, as I just reported. The total number of Americans receiving a benefit of some sort, including through the extension program, rose 71,724 to 5.89 million. I wish to remind my loyal readers that this figure has been improving over recent months by attrition as much as economic growth. I expect that a great number of long-term unemployed Americans are simply falling off the unemployment cliff when their benefits run out.

Where do these people go for help after they stop receiving benefits, and what of the 4%+ of Americans who were unemployed before the crisis began? Those people couldn’t find work any better than the people qualifying for the extension program, but they were left to fend for themselves. Those people were the first to foreclosure by Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and friends, and the first to be sued for their debt defaults against our later bailed out banks. Why weren’t they rescued like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Merrill Lynch, or J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bear Stearns. When AIG (NYSE: AIG) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) got handouts, those folks had their cars repossessed and their lives lost without insurance to even cover the cost of their funerals. Instead of sending them checks big enough to cover their trouble, the Bush Administration blindly sent insignificant gifts out to all Americans, rich or poor.

And today, while no longer wanted by most peddlers of Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA), the likes of Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) are luring them back in with 0% interest rates that convert to 23% a few months later. Warren Buffet, of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B, NYSE: BRK-A), says he’s not sure what he would do if he were poor and had a family to feed. He does not judge those less fortunate than himself, or less gifted in business. So when they rob Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) for lack of better sense to sack Saks (NYSE: SKS), they get arrested. As they survive on welfare, the crooks at the rating agencies (based on Representative Kucinich’s description), who rated mortgage-backed securities investment grade deep into the real estate bubble, the bumblers at those firms who effectively ruined millions of lives through that aforementioned negligence, suffered not one arrest. Instead, our jails will fill further with the customers of their business partners, as the assets of Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and the rest of the banks that are even bigger now than they were when they were too big to fail fill with the shadow inventory of what use to be homes filled with families.

It’s getting worse dear friends, not better. Kicking the can down the road is more like pushing the snowball up the hill. It will roll back down and smother us all. Please follow me as I seek to do more to level the playing field, and to serve justice and the true American way, the one our forefathers envisioned.



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greece, Greeks and Greek Soccer Should Demand More

The Greek crisis and the performance of the Greek national soccer team inspired this editorial opinion piece perhaps long overdue.

As I watched Greece’s pivotal soccer match versus its political prodder Germany, a quarter-final game for the 2012 UEFA European Cup, I could not help but notice the similarities of the Greek team’s approach to Greece’s efforts to mitigate its financial crisis.

I renounced my ethnicity more than once during the course of Greece’s attempt at Euro 2012, and pleaded tearfully with the Lord to just give us this if not anything else. I knew divine intervention would be necessary, and just asked for a few crossbar and goalpost saves to assist our embattled goalie and bombarded defense. Alas, it was not to be, as the third ranked Germans overwhelmed the still improving Greek soccer program (ranked 15 by FIFA).

Despite the advancements of the Greeks over the years, I still found myself frustrated with the strategy employed and the execution of play on the field. I’m not a passive follower of soccer, having walked on to my NCAA Division I college soccer program, and having played and coached competitive sports all my life. My critical mind and discerning vision is neither limited to economic and securities analysis, or at least I like to think so. Thus, I noted the many issues that constrained my ancestral ethnic team against the advanced play of the Germans. In that same regard, I see why Greece has struggled economically speaking.

A Few Similarities between Greece and the Greek National Team:

• Each are led by foreigners who cannot fully understand Greek nature nor Greek potential
• Each employ a defeatist strategy, defensively postured to endure not conquer
• Each often regress to selfish though passionate flails at scoring
• When not stressed, the Greeks and Greece act lackadaisically and passively
• Each fails to notice risks effectively

With all due respect to Greece’s excellent coach, Fernando Santos, and to Greece’s questionable European economic advisors, the view from the outside inward inherently falls short of producing adequate understanding. Only a Greek can truly know the strengths and weaknesses of the Greeks, and therefore, only a Greek can structure a system that will play to those strengths and weaknesses. That leads me to the second and third points.

The last two coaches of Greek soccer have employed defensive schemes. It’s because of a lack of confidence in the skill and potential of Greek players. This, in turn, is because of the long-term history of Greek soccer, which has fallen well short of the results of its rivals in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, England, the Netherlands and Portugal. Obviously, the development of league play has helped those nations to better their domestic talent. As more Greek players fine tune their craft in the advanced leagues of Europe, Greece will benefit as well.

The same lagged development applies to the problems with Greece, which was stymied by the West’s abandonment of it to Ottoman domination for centuries. After the world wars of the last century, Greece was stripped barren and left to grow as best it could without the fertile support of the West. Therefore, its culture strayed for survival’s sake, away from its brilliance of ancient times.

You see, the survivalist’s mantra is often a selfish one, born out of necessity. The survivor trusts in what he controls only and strives to the utmost to make his own way. Thus, perhaps the Greek businessmen of today, while creating thriving businesses, micromanage them and rarely scale to optimal potential. The Greek economy is thus dysfunctional, because Greek businesses do not feed one another fluidly. I’m sorry to say that I believe for the most part, the only time a Greek helps another Greek is when his hand is greased. It’s not enough to win the trust of a business partner or to act for the sake of good faith. In this, maybe Greeks are just the same as everyone else.

There’s plenty of passion in Greece, for life and for the good fight when a challenge avails. Challenge, in fact, brings out the best in Greeks. But without a challenge, I feel we fall into a trap of relaxation and lackadaisical play. It’s hard not to be this way when you have lived long enough in Greece, which for me is pure paradise. When it comes to managing a nation, though, there had better be no loss of focus. Perhaps it’s the same lulling life that led Greek government managers to underestimate risk when they undertook too many projects for their bleak budget to handle, piling on debt to manage it all. Once the economy came under pressure, capital dried up and Greece was left in crisis. That’s not to mention the lies the government told to get into the euro-zone and to keep its debt issues hidden.

What I would like to see from Greece and the Greek team moving forward is a hatred for losing. The team and Greek politicians and business managers should hate losing so much to make it intolerable. This intolerance should drive the necessary energy for winning, to lead players and managers to learn how to win and to approach their training and business and government operation with a fire for victory. I think it’s this competitive spirit that drives success in the United States, Germany and China today.

And the defeatist attitude needs to be reversed. Greeks are just as athletic, intelligent and creative as any Spaniard, German or other European. There’s no reason why the team shouldn’t be able to go head to head with its competition.

I also have a pet peeve with regard to cheating and lying, including the sort the Greek team (and other teams) employ to draw penalty or win some minor battle. It’s a lie when you fake an injury on the field of play, and the law on cheating and lying is plainly clear and applies to soccer as well as to life. If our players would fight through tough plays, like I know they can, I’m certain they would do better than they do by generating bad karma through lies on the fair field of play. Likewise, corporate and government corruption globally and corruption generally in Greece disgusts me. We should be better than that, based on the dictum of our faith, period! Once again, this is not a Greek problem, but a societal problem globally. Practicing false expertise while in actuality cheating and lying is also without excuse, especially when one judges others from that position. This again is a societal flaw, not a Greek one, but I would like to see us (people) rise above it.

There’s no reason why the Greek nation cannot lead Europe once again. But for that to happen, the nation must digest the reality of the situation together. The Greek citizenry must continue to push its politicians to do the right thing, or be replaced, even by newcomers. Perhaps, finally, the legacy of certain family dynasties garnering unwarranted levels of respect in Greece has ended. Leadership must be earned on a daily basis for it not to become complacent, and it should be regardless of last name or the legacy of ancestors.

You know, Nike (NYSE: NKE) had that great slogan, “Just do it,” and the old owner of the Oakland Raiders, Al Davis, use to say, “Just win baby!” It’s a simple message, but it’s true through the goal mouth. When victory is your goal, you find creative ways to make it happen when conventional methods do not work. Fervor and vigor - who has got it? That team or nation will be the victor nine times out of ten, unless the game clock stops first, because it will work hardest to make it be.

It’s the responsibility of the Greek government now to be creative, to find ways to create an expanding budget surplus and to create income opportunities for Greek citizens. It’s also the Greek government’s responsibility to raise its voice to the referee when treatment is unfair, and to that I refer to the IMF and EU, which are overstressing Greece. Granted, Greece dug its own grave, but the EU need not push the nation into it now, especially after leading it into the cemetery in the first place.

Whether it be with regards to Greece, the Greek citizenry or the Greek national soccer club, victory is going to take will, effort and creativity. Enough words like these have been written though. Now is the time for action and success or failure, and the respective fallout due to each. For Greece, I wish only the best, but I also demand the best of all Greeks.

See also Greece vs. Germany - A Game for Pride.

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.