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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Seeking Alpha

Saturday, May 31, 2014

The Demon Gold Bears Don’t See

Markos Kaminis
Gold bears celebrated last week as the precious metals sector slipped. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) dropped 3.3%; the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) fell 3.1%; the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX) collapsed 3.5%; the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (Nasdaq: NUGT) cascaded 11.1%; and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) fell 4.5%. I believe gold fell off while the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) climbed last week because elections in Ukraine went off without a hitch and Russia reportedly pulled its troops off the border with its neighbor. But what gold bears are missing here is that the demon, by his nature, will not go away; he will only alter his strategy and return in another way. Russia continues to foment discord within Eastern Ukraine. Rebels took over the airport in Donetsk just after the election. However, they were met by the first (informal) act of newly elected President Poroshenko. Ukrainian forces met with force the misinformed traitors in Donetsk who because of Russian propaganda believe themselves to be threatened by Kiev. Poroshenko has undertaken a fast-moving mission to crush criminal militias and reunite Ukraine. Who’s to say that will not take him to the border with Crimea, illegally taken by Russia just months ago. Russia is now poised to counter any new sanctions against it with a slew of actions of its own, which I believe will threaten the euro. Gold should recover lost ground. See our report on gold.

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Bank of America is a Gift from God Here

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Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) took a hard fall after its executive team failed to accurately report its regulatory capital ratios to the Federal Reserve. The company had its capital plans frozen as a result. With expectations for a sharp dividend increase and share repurchases built into the stock price, investors were disappointed. And then the company’s earnings outlook required a second look, given the accounting errors and the absence of share repurchases. That leveled the stock, cutting 6% off its value in one day. But, after all that, I suggest Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) is now a gift for those who do not yet own the stock. The company has resubmitted its third-party reviewed capital figures and its financial plans to the Fed, and is now on a 75 day wait for approval. The stock is deeply discounted to peers, trading at just 1.1X tangible book value, versus 1.65X for Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), 1.34X for J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and 2.05X for U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB). If BofA could attain the average value of itself and those peers and trade at a conservative 1.5X tangible book, it would be worth 37% more than it is today. That is a gift from God for new entrants. Please see our full report here for a more detailed analysis of Bank of America.

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Wall Street Week Ahead June 2-6

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Everybody ought to be back from holiday this week and we can get back to business. It’s a busy week on the economic front, with a jam packed schedule that includes the granddaddy of them all, the monthly Employment Situation Report. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) keys this week’s wire as well, with its big developers’ conference Monday. The geopolitical schedule is hot too, with a G-7 meeting and a series of important central bank decisions. Find your full schedule below.

Wall Street Week Ahead


Security
2014
Last 12 Mos.
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+4.3%
+17.9%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+0.9%
+10.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+3.8%
+24.7%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
+3.7%
-10.1%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
+6.9%
+16.2%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)
+3.9%
+0.6%
PowerShares DB US $ Bullish (NYSE: UUP)
-0.2%
-5.0%

Stocks have been on a bit of a run, especially last week after the Ukraine elections went off without a hitch and Russian troops began backing off the border with Ukraine. However, the economic data has remained disappointing. Hopes are pinned on improving data as we get out of that miserable winter weather that plagued Q1. Gold started slipping last week, but we’re looking for it to bounce back soon enough.

Economic Events

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
MONDAY




54.9
55.5
55.4
56.2
0.2%
0.7%
$88





TUESDAY


16.0 M
12.8 M
-Domestic Sales Only
12.8 M
16.1 M
1.1%
0.5%
-1.2%

-Year-to-Year Pace
+2.1%

+3.2%





WEDNESDAY


220K
210K
-$40.4 B
-$41.0 B
55.2
55.3
55.0

-1.7%
-2.9%
-Unit Labor Costs
4.2%
5.2%


25.0

-1.2%



-Crude Oil Inventory
+1.7 MB

-Gasoline Inventory
-1.8 MB

G-7 Summit in Brussels




THURSDAY






Chain Store Sales


33.3

+114 bcf

40,298

310K

43.4





FRIDAY




-Nonfarm Payrolls
288K
213K
-Private Payrolls
273K
215K
-Unemployment Rate
6.3%
6.4%
$17.5 B
$15.0 B

The week ahead is jam-packed full of significant economic data that should matter to investors. The obvious market-mover most are keying on this week is the monthly employment report for May, though the news is not expected to be as great as April’s. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase at a less robust pace, by just 213K, versus April’s 288K. Private nonfarm payrolls will likewise be lower for May, according to economists, at 215K. The unemployment rate is seen inching higher to 6.4%, after declining sharply in April (though the workforce count disappeared a bit). So, the bar is set lower for the critical economic data point. The rest of the monthly employment figures include a lower bar for ADP’s private employment data and a relatively easy comp on the Challenger Job-Cut point – last month’s figure was mildly concerning.

Where to begin… From there, the schedule is simply packed. We have monetary policy meetings from the ECB, BOE and Bank of Canada. A slew of Federal Reserve men are scheduled to speak along with the Treasury Secretary. The Beige Book of regional Fed bank indicators will be reported. There’s a G-7 meeting scheduled, sans Vladimir Putin, who’s been dropped from the bunch. Every important national manufacturing and non-manufacturing figure is due, including factory orders, productivity & costs and a slew of Gallup data points. Construction spending data is due and one consumer sentiment measure. It’s just busy, very busy.

Corporate Events

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) tops the corporate news list, as its Worldwide Developers’ Conference promises to offer all sorts of new and important news. However, in the past, Apple has fallen short of high expectations for it. The stock has run up into the meeting, so many expect another failure here. If we get one of significance, I suggest buying Apple shares up. The earnings list is somewhat comprehensive in this post-holiday period. See the full list below.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
MONDAY

Apple WorldWide Developers
Nasdaq: AAPL
Urstadt Biddle Property A
NYSE: UBA
Calavo Growers
Nasdaq: CVGW
Jos A. Banks Clothiers
Nasdaq: JOSB
KBR
NYSE: KBR
Quiksilver
NYSE: ZQK
Accretive Health
Nasdaq: ACHI
Berkshire Bancorp
Nasdaq: BERK
Conn’s
Nasdaq: CONN
Ferrelgas Partners
NYSE: FGP
Guidewire Software
Nasdaq: GWRE
Hastings Entertainment
Nasdaq: HAST
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts
NYSE: KKD
Layne Christensen
Nasdaq: LAYN
Link Real Estate Investment Trust
Nasdaq: LKREF
Progressive
NYSE: PGR
TravelCenters of America
NYSE: TA
Village Super Market
Nasdaq: VLGEA
TUESDAY

ABM Industries
NYSE: ABM
Ambarella
Nasdaq: AMBA
American Woodmark
Nasdaq: AMWD
Ascena Retail
Nasdaq: ASNA
Dollar General
NYSE: DG
ePlus
Nasdaq: PLUS
FuelCell Energy
Nasdaq: FCEL
G-III Apparel Group
Nasdaq: GIII
Mattress Firm Holdings
Nasdaq: MFRM
Measurement Specialties
Nasdaq: MEAS
Mitcham Industries
Nasdaq: MIND
Rentrak
Nasdaq: RENT
WEDNESDAY

Bazaarvoice
NYSE: BV
Brown-Forman
NYSE: BF-A
Cyberonics
Nasdaq: CYBX
Doral Financial
NYSE: DRL
Five Below
Nasdaq: FIVE
Greif
NYSE: GEF
Hovnanian Enterprises
NYSE: HOV
IXYS Corp.
Nasdaq: IXYS
Leidos
Nasdaq: LDOS
PVH Corp.
NYSE: PVH
RealD
NYSE: RLD
Verint Systems
Nasdaq: VRNT
THURSDAY

American Superconductor
Nasdaq: AMSC
Analogic
Nasdaq: ALOG
Bio-Reference Laboratories
Nasdaq: BRLI
Breeze-Eastern
NYSE: BZC
Cantel Medical
NYSE: CMN
Ciena
Nasdaq: CIEN
Comtech Telecommunicaitons
Nasdaq: CMTL
Cooper Cos.
NYSE: COO
Diamond Foods
Nasdaq: DMND
Hooker Furniture
Nasdaq: HOFT
J.M. Smucker
NYSE: SJM
Joy Global
NYSE: JOY
Mad Catz Interactive
NYSE: MCZ
Navistar Int’l
NYSE: NAV
Quanex Building Products
NYSE: NX
Rally Software Development
Nasdaq: RALY
SeaChange Int’l
Nasdaq: SEAC
Selectica
Nasdaq: SLTC
Thor Industries
NYSE: THO
Titan Machinery
Nasdaq: TITN
UTi Worldwide
Nasdaq: UTIW
Vail Resorts
NYSE: MTN
Vera Bradley
NYSE: VRA
VeriFone Systems
NYSE: PAY
Vince Holdings
Nasdaq: VNCE
FRIDAY

KMG Chemicals
NYSE: KMG
Oil-Dri Corporation of America
NYSE: ODC
Piedmont Natural Gas
NYSE: PNY

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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