Consumer Wisdom Disagrees with Market Speculation

The stock market was inspired by what appears to be a constructive European action and better than expected GDP growth for Q3, but the consumer mood, of which we received three measurements last week, still spells trouble.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Consumer Wisdom Disagrees with Market Speculation

The Dow Jones Industrials Index was up 3.1% from the close of trading Wednesday through the conclusion of the week. The catalyst was of course the announcement of the planned action in Europe to resolve the Greek debt crisis and to solidify European banks moving forward.

Solid economic results here at home helped the market along as well. GDP was reported up 2.5% for the third quarter, marking a significantly more robust rate of growth than the second quarter’s 1.3% struggle; though GDP benefited from a deteriorated U.S. savings rate. Durable Goods Orders, ex-transportation, were reported up 1.7% in September. On Friday, Personal Outlays (spending) was noted up 0.6% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase; though it benefited some from higher prices. Still, the news was mostly perceived to be relatively strong across important economic metrics, and it supported the market’s burst on the European fix.

All that said and done, we received three measures of the consumer mood last week, and none reflected the nascent enthusiasm of stocks. Of course, the measurements were all taken ahead of the news breaks of the week’s catalysts. Still, how much better off are consumers today versus when they were surveyed? I suspect they are still knee deep in it. Furthermore, it’s my belief that Europe might yet implode, and if it does not, it still faces a struggle. In the States, I’ve already outlined the flaws of the economic drivers, and call attention to a still burdensome unemployment rate, unfair trade environment and handicapped capitol. Let’s not forget the rising tide of civil unrest. By the way, did you know Wall Street Greek warned about civil unrest in the U.S. well before the first few protestors gathered in Manhattan?

As far as American consumers see it, the economic situation remains troubled. I’m inclined to believe their opinion more than the speculative market that drove stock prices higher Thursday but failed to build upon the move Friday. Furthermore, too many high flying and recently reliable companies are warning about the road ahead if not failing to satisfy today, with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), Cree (Nasdaq: CREE), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), VMware (NYSE: VMW), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) letting shareholders down in one way or another this quarter. And while some investors may have forgotten this important fact last week, I remembered that the last Challenger Jobs Report showed a significant number of announced corporate layoffs, and that unemployment and economic growth seemed more likely to deteriorate than to improve based on Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and other economists’ updates of the last several weeks.

Consumers are feeling ill; there’s no doubt about that. Early last week, the Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index dropped dramatically in October, to a mark of 39.8, from a poor base of 46.4 in September. The main components of the index, which comprise the views of the present situation and expectations for the next six months, declined in union. The consumers’ view of the present situation was simply horrible, with the representative index down to 26.3, from 33.3. The Expectations Index collapsed to 48.7, from 55.1, clearly illustrating lost hope. According to Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, "Consumer confidence is now back to levels last seen during the 2008-2009 recession.”

Bloomberg reports its Consumer Comfort Index weekly, so it offers a very relevant and fresh view of the consumer mood. Bloomberg’s index fell to minus 51.1 in the week ending October 23, from negative 48.4 the week before. Not only was it the worst reading in a month, but it reflected levels not seen since the Great Recession, which we are supposed by many to have recovered from. Do you notice a recurring theme here yet?

On Friday, the University of Michigan, in conjunction with Thomson Reuters, reported its Consumer Sentiment Index for the close of October. This measure varied from the other two in that it projected improvement. The Michigan Index gained to 60.9, from a sour 57.5 mark at the start of the month. However, it was only up slightly against September’s close, when the index measured at 59.4. The current situation component of this index improved slightly to 75.1, from 74.9, but that’s a negligible change. What was telling was what happened in the expectations component of the index. It improved, yes, to 51.8 from 49.4. However, it improved from a near 30-year low, which was marked at the start of the month. The point is that while the expectations index showed improvement, it was from a historical trough, and those expectations remain at a point reflecting very tough times.

The measures these indexes produce should not be given too much weight for their direction, whether they show improvement or deterioration, but they should be watched closely for absolute value, trend and magnitude of change. The trend of course depicts a more meaningful direction than one month’s change, and the magnitude of change, given a margin of error, matters more than slight directional movements. Of course, the absolute value of all three indexes was poor, despite the differences of the three. What I see in these indexes is a situation that still spells trouble, and given the distance Europe must yet travel to truly survive its crisis, and the soft or tangential drivers of U.S. economic data improvement, I think consumers are wiser today than the market was for one day last week.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Hot News Links 10-31-11

Wall Street Greek provides readers with the day's hottest news links each day. These are the most important, market moving and interesting stories we were able to uncover. We hope you enjoy the service.

Hot News Links

• OECD Projects Economic Weakness Through 2013


• Eurozone Inflation Above 3%


• Advisor Defends Obama’s Handling of Economy


• Chicago Business Barometer Declines in October


• Sarkozy Attacked for Seeking China’s Help


• Farm Prices Report Today at 3PM


• Europe May have Blown its Last Chance to End Crisis


• Oil Futures Lower Today


• Spain Economy Flat in Q3


• US Stocks Drop


• Consumers Terrified but Still Spending


• Restaurant Operators Report Better September


• Day of Irony as Greeks Still Disgusted


• MF Global (NYSE: MF) Suspended


• Macy’s (NYSE: M) will Open at Midnight on Thanksgiving Day


• The Commercial Space Race Pulls Boeing (NYSE: BA) in


• Qantas (OTC: QUBSF.PK) Rivals Circle


• Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) Shares Sink as Focus on Asian Business Sale


• Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) up on Ackman Stake


• Humana (NYSE: HUM) Up on Profit Forecast


• 2 Ladies Accuse Cain of Inappropriate Behavior


• Oakland Protesters Call for City Wide Strike


• Armed Militia Shows up to Guard Occupy Phoenix


• Tensions Escalate in Denver


• US Building Up Troops in Gulf for Iran Mission


• Israel will Make No More Concessions


• World Reaches 7 Billion People


• PIZZA WARS: Domino's (NYSE: DPZ) Guys Burn Down Rival Papa John’s (Nasdaq: PZZA) Location


• Girl Caught in Noose at Haunted House, People thought she was a Prop


• Yahoo! Earnings Calendar

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

An Ode to Jimmy the Greek

As is my custom, after I read the Trisagion (Memorial Pray) at my parent’s grave, I then go to the older Greek section of Cypress Hills Cemetery to first pray over the final resting place of my childhood companion, Nick Gardelis. He was killed in action in Vietnam, in 1970. We were over there at the same time, but in different Army units. Nick had written me a short letter, stoically predicting his own death. My mother waited until I was home to confirm, that he did indeed make the supreme sacrifice, and that her mother, my grandmother, Yiayia Eleni had also passed away. My last visit is to the gravesite of my grandparents. On this windy, late October day it was the name day of Saint Demetrios (James or Jim in English). My grandfather’s tombstone is engraved James Alexander, but in the Brooklyn neighborhood of my childhood he was known solely as Jimmy the Greek.

He died in January of ’55, when I was barely six-years-old. However, my remembrance of him is so vivid that he could have departed yesterday. He didn’t live to see his beloved Brooklyn Dodgers finally win a World Series from the mighty New York Yankees, in the autumn of his passing. There was not a more passionate fan of the “Brooklyn Bums,” as they were affectionately called, than my papoo. One time, he was able to hold on to some money long enough to outfit his three oldest grandchildren in Dodger uniforms. We would accompany him to one of the various bars that he frequented and be introduced as his “gang.” He would have a “quick one,” before taking us to Prospect Park.

Yes, Jimmy the Greek loved his “Kosciusko.” That’s what he called the bottle of booze that he tried to hide from his wife in the small railroad flat where we all lived. Whenever Yiayia Eleni could find the bottle, she would empty out some of it and then fill it back with vinegar or salt. When papoo, in the middle of the night sneaked a nip of the adulterated alcohol, he would spit it out as well as spitting out a string of Greek curses that he learnt as a young seaman in Greece.

Another time, yiayia, who didn’t like to waste electricity, had fallen asleep in the only bathroom we had. Papoo coming home late that night went into the darken bathroom to have a nightcap. From this new and yet undiscovered hiding place in the bottom of the clothes hamper, he retrieved his “prized nectar.” At the sound of the bottle being uncorked, yiayia awoke and screamed. Papoo dropped the bottle, which broke on the tile floor. He cursed a blue streak, waking even the neighbors upstairs, declaring that the devil must have put her there. I never felt the threat of papoo hitting yiayia; she was built like a Sherman Tank.

In many ways those days were innocent times. Most of the houses and apartments on our block could be opened with the same type of skeleton key that everyone possessed. Neighbors that we knew were honest and sometimes even a little naïve. There was Mary; she would come over to tell fortunes with playing cards. Her fur coat carried the heavy smell of mothballs. What puzzled me then as a little boy was that for all the times that she read the cards, she always foresaw a good destiny. Whenever she seemed on the verge of seeing a bad occurrence – she would curl her tongue and quickly reshuffle the cards and make it turn out okay. She would endlessly talk about her grown children in the same house with her; Karl, Walter, Henrietta, and even her canary, Pretty Boy. My older brother John would entertain her by mimicking the bird’s whistle.

One summer day, papoo was walking by Mary’s house while she was sitting on the front porch. Mary asked “what’s wrong Jimmy?” Hearing him moan out quite loud and seeing that he had his hand to his cheek. Papoo complained that he had a bad toothache. In those days a home remedy for tooth pain was a shot of whisky swallowed after first letting the strong drink first numb the infected area. So, kind-hearted Mary invited papoo into her home for the cure. A few days later, Mary bumped into my mother at the A & P. She asked about papoo and his toothache, saying that it must have been very severe because he had drank half the bottle of Four Roses. Mom laughed when she told us later over supper that she somehow managed to keep a straight face as she thanked Mary for helping her father. She explained that she didn’t have the heart to tell Mary that papoo hadn’t had a tooth in his mouth for the last ten years.

There were so many of us living in that small apartment that my mother was constantly rearranging furniture, in an attempt to accommodate the growing children, her parents and dad. One night she decided to switch the furniture in the living room with that of the girl’s bedroom. The problem was that the doorways were narrow and the kitchen was in the middle of the apartment. When my father and brother John tried to lift a couch pass the kitchen it got wedged overhead by the refrigerator with the legs extending sideways. I recall running back and forth underneath the couch. No matter what my father and John tried to do, they just couldn’t get it free. Papoo went to Al’s candy store on the corner, to get help. At the store, they certainly didn’t believe papoo, that a “couch was stuck on the ceiling.” They just thought that he had too much to drink. However, two of his friends offered to walk him home. It then became four men trying to get the couch unstuck. After a futile half hours work, they finally listened to my mother’s suggestions and were able to turn it free in an instant.

Yes, Jimmy the Greek had a weakness for drink, and he certainly wasn’t an Ivy Leaguer, but his fifty-six years of life was anything but tea and crumpets. He was an orphan from the Laconian village of Kresmasti. People on the island of Hydra who let him keep his family name of Alexandrakos adopted him. He frequently sailed back and forth to Africa before finally coming to America. He had a hot dog stand outside Kings County Hospital. That spot cost him two dollars a day for the cop on the beat – whether or not he made that much money that day. When his horse became lame and was put away, he pulled the cart himself, sometimes to the accompaniment of taunts from passing automobile drivers, until he could afford another horse.

Papoo had Peter Lorre’s large watery eyes, the roughest unshaven face and the softest feelings for his grandchildren. His Sunday morning pancakes were so heavy that we called them pound cakes, but they were heavenly delicious. When he cooked fish, he ate the head, calling it brain food. Every so often, when he had a few dollars, large tins of feta cheese in their own milk, gotten off ships from Greece would appear in the refrigerator. Papoo would also stock the family up with Kalamata Olives and good olive oil. He enjoyed the simple pleasure of listening to the Prodromides Radio Show for the music and news from the old country. One special Christmas, he gave me my first bicycle.

I don’t hear them call anyone Nick the Greek, or Jimmy the Greek, much anymore. I guess that’s progress of a sort and maybe ethnic tags belong in the past. But, it is also my legacy and I don’t shrink from it. I remember those days when we had less, but we also had so much more.

So, Jimmy the Greek, on your name day I pray for your soul. I whisper that the 1998 Yankees won the World Series in four straight games this year, but heart for heart they couldn’t match the ’55 Brooklyn Bums. My papoo, I can only hope that you and yiayia now buried together for eternity, are finally getting along.

As I head down the gentile hill to the car, I see a flock of geese flying overhead, in formation, across the darkening sky. Squirrels are scampering up and down trees. The leaves are changing to bright fall colors. I don’t feel the chill in the air, only the sweet warmth of remembrance.

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Oxi Day Still Means No to Greeks

“We are once again saying no to anyone who would come again to steal our country, whether it be the Germans or anyone else. We say no, and that is final!” Those were the words of a middle-aged woman, the regular sort demonstrating against the austerity measures that chain Greeks even after the latest European resolution.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Oxi Day Still Means No to Greeks!

It was eerily symbolic: the celebration of Oxi Day just a few days after the European Union agreed to slash Greece’s debt burden in half. The Greek word, “Oxi,” of course means no, and the day symbolizes Greece’s response to the demands of Mussolini (and Hitler) for the Hellenic Republic to surrender. Greece’s government agreed to this latest deal, the best option it has been offered yet, but perhaps the Greek people should have been surveyed. They so disrupted the Oxi Day parade in Greece’s second largest city of Thessaloniki, that it was cancelled.

The problem is that while Greece’s government burden has been reduced, no such luxury has been afforded to the Greek people. Austerity programs remain in place, as Greece continues to be indebted in one way or another to its European brothers. Greece’s debt burden was cut in half, and the pain of that event will be born mostly by private investors. European banks with exposure are being infused with 106 billion euro. Finally, to head off any future needed action, a trillion euro fund will be set up to act as a firewall against like crises in Portugal, Italy or elsewhere.

With all the glory of the grand barter, stocks across the globe and in Greece as well, enjoyed a relief rally Thursday. However, the rally ominously stalled on Friday, with the Euro STOXX 50 Index dropping 0.6%, as investors remembered that while imminent catastrophe was mitigated, misery remained. Greece cannot now go back on its progressive measures like its clean up of political and other corruption and its collection of income taxes, nor can it renege on its emergency plans including luxury taxes, pressure on pensioners, or the privatization of publicly owned installations.

Under such austerity, economic growth is impeded, but supporters of order will ask you, “What else can we do?” I say, plenty. Greece at least now has time to put together a better think tank, to give sincere effort to the design of creative ideas that could ease the burden from the people and allow economic growth to sprout. Current conditions will not encourage employment growth, though perhaps, with a tiring populous and the onset of winter, riots may ease and tourism may return in the spring.

It is a pity that the great barter agreed to by the nation finds the same answer from the people who have been protesting so vehemently for so long. That answer is the same issued to Mussolini, and it is still Oxi. Yet, I believe that fewer fresh measures will be pushed upon the people moving forward, which will cut off the kindling from the fire. With the nearing of an important national holiday for the Orthodox Christian nation, I expect Greece will tend to its wounds this winter, and prepare for rebirth in spring.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE or OTC: HLTOY.PK), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Moving News 10-27-11

The day's top headlines and most important stock market moving news links are found here daily.

Stock Market News

• Global Stocks Rally on Greece Solution


• Europe Bolsters Crisis Fighting Tools


• Criticism Remains over EU Arrangement


• Some Greek Banks to be Nationalized


• Obama Acting Like the Candy Man for Kids


• Dollar Plunges as Euro Rallies


• GDP Surprise in Q3, +2.5%


• Unemployment Claims were About the Same


• Papandreou Presents Deal to Greeks


• Pending Home Sales Soft in September


• Consumer Confidence Deeply Beaten


• Gold Moves Even Higher


• Mortgage Forecast Proved Spot On


• Natural Gas Report


• Exxon Mobil Profit Machine (NYSE: XOM)


• Groupon IPO Fire


• Nintendo Losses Grow (OTC: NTDOY.PK)


• Time Warner Cable Profit Misses (NYSE: TWC)


• Hertz (NYSE: HTZ) Puts Dollar Thrifty (NYSE: DTG) Bid on Hold


• United Continental Profit Misses (NYSE: UAL)


• Occupy Oakland Protesters Rally Around Injured Veteran


• 4.7 Mag Earthquake Strikes Northern California


• Northeast Braces for Snowfall


• Nationwide Strike Set for November 2nd


• Man Pulled from Rubble 4 Days Later in Turkey


• World Series Game 6 Preview


• Madoff and Wife Considered Suicide


• Oil is Higher Today


• Europe Begs Chinese Aid


• Debt Collectors Harrassing People


• Medicare Premiums Up Less than Expected


• Yahoo! Earnings Calendar

Our Mortgage Activity Forecast was Proven Correct Today

Last week, as every other publisher and advisor wrote about the sharp and “worrisome” drop-off in weekly mortgage applications, I told you not to panic about the 14.9% decline. I even advised that this week’s data would mark a solid rebound. Well, in fact, the data played true to our forecast and the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Report showed a 4.9% increase week-to-week.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Our Mortgage Activity Forecast was Proven Correct Today

Simply go back and read our report and you’ll understand why mortgage activity improved impressively this week. It was neither a matter of a dramatic turn in housing or due to a legislative catalyst. The President’s initiative to open up refinancing opportunities to more borrowers will come into play moving forward.

Mortgage rates did not affect activity either in the latest reporting period, as they were little changed. The average contracted rate of 30-year fixed rate mortgages with conforming loan balances was literally unchanged, while jumbo loans of the same duration saw a rate increase to 4.68%, from 4.64%. FHA sponsored loans marked a negligible rate decline to 4.11%, from 4.12%. And contracted 15-year fixed rates were up to 3.62%, from 3.61%, on average.

What came to play this week was a simple matter that much higher paid publishers than I missed. I’ve pointed out on many occasions that data reporters tend to make poor adjustment for holidays, especially three-day weekends. The adjustments often fail to adequately account for the lull in activity that occurs on the day before the holiday begins and after its passage. “It’s as simple as that, you see yeah” quoting a favorite band of mine - Live.

The MBA’s Market Composite Index improved 4.9%, as the Refinance Index gained 4.4%. The Purchase Index, which measures applications on the purchases of homes, increased 6.4%. That was another uncharacteristically large move in purchase activity and the give-away factor. It was due to the noise disruption of the data by the Columbus Day holiday. It’s as simple as that you see. We’ll look forward to a normalized reading next week.

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Support the Occupy Wall Street Protest Movement?

Supporters say “We are the 99%,” but critics say the group has much less than 99% of the nation’s support. We want to know how you feel about the Occupy Wall Street protest movement. Do you support it, or not, and why?

Do You Support the Occupy Wall Street Protest Movement?

The movement represents the frustration of blue collar, Main Street America, alongside much of white collar, impoverished to middle-class America, with Wall Street and much of corporate America and the advantages and power these elites wields in Washington DC. But some say the Occupy Wall Street movement is just a bunch of bums looking for a reason to party and raise a fuss. However, judging by how quickly and how far the movement has spread, with protests now running across most of metropolitan North America and Europe, it seems there’s solid issue and reasoning supporting it.

Due to my own very personal experiences with the evil side of Wall Street, its lying, cheating and stealing, which I hope to someday write about in an important book about the inner workings of Standard & Poor’s, I sympathize with the movement. I know why nobody has gone to prison over this financial crisis, and I’ll write about that here shortly, on a thread we’ll label “Occupy Wall Street”.

Personally, I was insulted by the Supreme Court decision that overturned the campaign finance limit legislation, an act that gave Wall Street and corporate manipulators an open spigot to fund and influence politicians. I’m also unhappy with job creation by corporate America, and I’ll write about the reason these companies choose to hoard cash and create jobs overseas, before helping to lift our economy at its core through domestic support.

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Steps

“Paul, I’ve started this reply a dozen times, and a dozen ways: Your letter, needless to say, came as a complete surprise and I should add a shock. The mailman delivered it to my mother. She still lives in the old house and you addressed it with my maiden name. After 30 years, to hear from you! Time has done its job. I had to search my Grand Haven High School yearbook for a picture of you. I should tell you two things. The first is that I married shortly after you left me. As you seem to be dwelling only in the past, you might remember Frank Bennett. He worked at Hank’s gas station. He was kind enough to become my husband. The second thing I should tell you is; that I was carrying your child. Rebecca knows the truth – small towns keep no secrets. Frank has helped me raise her into a fine woman. She is married now. If you want to reconcile, do it with her. Rebecca is strong and caring. She is going to be in New York the weekend of August 25th at that Crafts Fair at Fordham University. That should make it easier for you to come down from Boston. She and her husband Bill will have a booth named Michigan Wood Crafts. It is all up to you. I will say nothing to her. I am truly sorry that you are dying. May the Lord be merciful.

Sincerely, Mrs. Frank Bennett”

Wall Street Greek's Fine Arts Contributor and New York Stories Columnist Nicholas Zaharakos offers his latest effort; it is "Steps." It chronicles the final steps of a man's life. It is a story about the missteps of foolish youth that has eternal consequences.

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Steps

In the two weeks since receiving her reply, Paul Kallas has worn deep creases in the letter by countless readings. He has taken to clutching the folded plain lined paper as if it were a crucifix. He was holding it tightly as he watched his daughter at the campus on the periphery of the pounding heartbeat of the city. Paul, sitting on stone steps that formed an unfinished pyramid at the top could see Rebecca’s canvas-tented booth some ten yards away.

He was staying at the Empire Hotel overlooking the fair grounds. From his room, he could see the Hudson River and beyond toward where Michigan lay. Paul pondered about having been away from the place of his youth for half again as much as Odysseus was from his beloved Ithaca and his faithful Penelope. After yesterday’s storm, it was a summer day that a city dweller could hold in cupped hands like the most exquisite crystal. The sun was a jovial balloon, the clouds a moving festival of bride’s tulle stretching across the sky. The winds from the west were like cool fingers gently stirring one’s soul with the tinge of spring in the past and the fall to follow.

Yesterday, the rain and wind were so severe that his flight was delayed for three hours. The stewardess mistook the reason for Paul’s anxiety and kept telling him that everything would be all right as she passed up and down the aisle. The downpour didn’t let up when the plane finally landed in New York. The cab ride to the hotel was like being in a submarine, with the windows closed to keep out the water. The windshield wipers became twin metronomes that soon had Paul drowsy.

* * *

“When Hermia was dismissed from the presence of the Duke, she went to her lover Lysander and told him the peril she was in and that she must either give him up and marry Demetrius, or lose her life in four days.”

* * *

Unpacking in the hotel, Paul cursed the weather that had robbed him of a precious day. From his high floor, he could see deep puddles bubbling with raindrops where the displays would have been. The medications he was taking left him with little strength. He had room service bring him a sandwich and tea. After a warm bath, it was all he could do to get under the sheets. The rain had come with cold weather from the Midwest. The curtains flowed with the breeze like a pale wedding dress.

Paul was roused from his slumber – the storm had resumed with tempest fury, accompanied by hammered flashes of lightning. With difficulty, he got up to lower window, and then decided against it. Taking a blanket from the closet, Paul went back to bed. He drifted into an unnatural sleep, kept close to consciousness by the celestial turbulence.

* * *

Paul was pleased – things were going as planned. He could see that by the happy expression on Mary’s face, not that she ever seemed to be sad. Paul had wanted the past few days to be special, to thank Mary before he told her the good news. He wasn’t going to Michigan State in the fall. Tonight, after the Friday concert on the pier, he would let her know.

“To be, or not to be!” Paul recited in an exaggerated voice. Mary feeding him a large strawberry stopped him from going on. They were sharing a blanket on the beach at Lake Michigan. Between them, lay the basket of baked bread, fruit and chesses that they had gathered from Armitrano’s roadside market. Hidden on the bottom was the large bottle of red wine that Paul was saving for when they would watch the sun set over the Great Lakes.

Paul would meet Mary when she got off from her part-time job at the piano factory where her father also worked. Mr. Cosmos didn’t approve of Paul. “Any boy who doesn’t hold a summer job – well, something is fishy, and that’s all I can say.” That’s what he overheard through the screen door last week, after he drove Mary home late. Paul mused about what her father would have said if he knew that Paul had tried to cajole her into staying with him the entire night. The day charter boats were returning to port, as he turned to Mary.

“Too bad the drama club didn’t choose one of Shakespeare’s great tragedies for us to star in instead of that marshmallow, A Midsummer’s Night Dream,” Paul sighed. “I would have made a noble Caesar, don’t you think so?”

“Oh no, wouldn’t thy have taken two acts instead of one for thy death scene at the Senate? Alas, who would be able to keep back the audience from also offering their rendering services,” teased Mary. She popped another strawberry into his mouth. The sun was a dissolving orange as they continued jousting.

“Ah, look to your hands, Lady Macbeth, covered with blood,” cried Paul, as he took her berry stained fingers to his cheek. “Here’s the smell of the blood still; all the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand.”

“You stole my lines, you scoundrel you,” answered Mary in mock horror. “Paul these are the sweetest strawberries that I’ve ever had. I hope you paid for them this time.”

“Come, have what Bacchus offers.” Paul wicked laughed as he held the cane-covered bottler with one hand and with the other brought Mary to him.

* * *

Paul floated back to wakefulness as the storm was abating into the distance. The sky was still filled with electricity as night yielded to dawn. He had thought that Grand Haven was too small for him, as would be school at East Lansing. Paul remembered Mary’s pleading tears when he told her he was leaving and not looking back. “You’re foolish to think that because you were my leading lady here, that you can anchor my future,” he recalled preaching. “You have to be sophisticated and know when to let go. I have an invitation to study at the Actor’s Theatre in New York. This is exactly what I have been working toward.”

Paul was sure that he would “make it big,” in no time. The “Theatre,” he found out was in a rundown warehouse near the docks. In the nine years that he had tried to break in, the only time he made it to Off-Broadway was when he played in an outdoor summer production of Shakespeare next door to a municipal bus depot. A pile of discarded tires was the backdrop. Paul recollected with ironic bitterness that he portrayed Brutus in Julius Caesar. Escape from that failure came in the form of Suzanne, a waitress, also an aspiring “star.” They eventually married and took over her father’s plumbing business. That lasted for 13 years. She left him for a younger man. Now, Leukemia was to end his days as a bookstore manager in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

* * *

Paul waited for a way that he could approach his daughter. In the morning, he watched as Rebecca unpacked from the boxes that Bill had carted with a rope-pulled dolly. She worked with antlike intensity, using a screwdriver and hammer to set up the racks and pegs to display cutting boards and utensils. After hanging the shingle: “Michigan Wood Crafts, Bill and Rebecca Sandusky,” they shared coffee from a thermos as they sat in a handcrafted loveseat made of ash and walnut. They were nestled between a stand with ceramic lamps and one with handmade kites and windsocks that swung like knight banners.

Throughout the day, Paul could just imagine what they were saying to each other. Because Bill and Rebecca’s actions were so animated, Paul didn’t feel he was missing much of their interactions. He was pleased with Bill, a tall bearded man. Bill seemed to be the kind of guy who could fix anything if it were broken. The constant breeze had dried all traces of yesterday’s storm. The fair was crowded from the start with strolling couples and families enjoying the country and western dancing at the far end of the campus and the natural food concessions across from the booths. Bill and Rebecca worked in a continual flow of packaging and writing up sales. Paul fancied seeing Mary in his daughter. The energy-sapping sun beating down on the steps had Paul napping.

* * *

“I will meet you, said Lysander, in the wood a few miles without the city, in that delightful wood where we have so often walked with Helena in the pleasant month of May.”

* * *

Paul awoke to a baby girl dancing barefooted on the plateau of the steps singing softly into the wind accompanied by the hand clapping of her parents. When she was done, her father carried the child to a stroller. Paul felt a sweet ache in his heart as they proudly wheeled their daughter away. Paul decided then that he was going to just slip away very soon.

The sun had become a searing disc low in the sky. The fair was closing. The dismantling of the tents and poles that had supported them had begun. The grounds became a beehive of squeaking hand-trucks and dollies rolling unsold wares to waiting vans for the long journey home. Neighboring crafts people were saying their good-byes as if they had spent the entire summer together at a campsite. Rebecca, now wearing a red plaid flannel shirt against the chilliness hurriedly took down their stand. She was working at a frantic pace as if in a race against time. Bill looking puzzled tried in vain to slow her down a few times. The sky was aflame with crimson and purple-clouded hues.

The last thing to be carted away was the loveseat. When Bill returned for that, Rebecca playfully pushed him into it. She then ran over to the refreshment concession returning with two large plastic containers overflowing with cut fruit. She gave one to Bill and kissed him after saying something quietly. Rebecca then walked over to Paul, who was now quite alone on the steps.

“Gee Mister, the food stand was closing up and they gave us more than me and my husband can handle. Please enjoy!” She smiled sweetly as she handed Paul the cup. “It’s going to be a beautiful sunset,” she laughed with chestnut eyes dancing. Paul stood and managed to nod back as he accepted her offering.

Rebecca rejoined Bill. They turned the loveseat toward the west and held each other in an unbreakable embrace. Paul silently shed bitter tears of endless remorse.

The End

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Chaos will Rule if We Don’t Loosen them for Unemployment Benefits

The latest weekly jobless claims report covering the period ending October 15 showed claims stubbornly holding above the 400K threshold. However, once again, we’re cataloging here the weekly trend of claimants falling out of coverage, an event we view both suspect and concerning.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Chaos Rules

The Department of Labor reported that the weekly flow of benefits filers decreased by 6,000 in the latest period, to 403K (against a revised higher prior period). Illustrating just how stubbornly weekly claims have been holding on above the 400K level, the four-week moving average of jobless claims also measured 403K.

So, with claims running so high, why does the number of people covered under all programs, which includes the still running extension program, continue to decline. This week, the number of Americans covered by any program fell by 124,239, to 6.7 million. That’s a big number, and it continues a trend that has run true for months now.

Where are all those Americans going to? They are not getting jobs. Last month’s data showed a dramatically high level of announced corporate layoffs and a troubling unemployment rate. I will once again reiterate the reason I think this contrasting data point exists, and where I think these Americans have been heading to.

The hoops that the government requires Americans to jump through, to keep them actively seeking work, are strictly adhered to. I suspect the government has not loosened the rules one iota due to the obviously impossible labor environment. In fact, I believe the rules are being kept religiously. So the unemployed man, who for any reason fails to produce his quote of evidence of job search, is dropped out of the program. There are no ifs, ands or buts about it, except the butt they’re being kicked out the door by.

Why would the government want to run the program this way? Firstly, I expect it’s more a matter of the way things work in government jobs, i.e. the DMV, then an active strategy. Besides, it’s probably true that some people exploit the system, and by some means, enjoy getting by on a few hundred dollars a week. Those people need a tight system. However, in today’s environment, I expect we’re sending too many good people out into the cold for bad reasons. And where are they going to? Well, we’ll find them in the foreclosure numbers, the credit default figures and in rising crime data. Oh, and I bet more than a few can be found at Occupy Wall Street demonstrations across the country. So perhaps then, government program policemen might exercise better judgment, before chaos rules.

As always, I like to conclude this regular reporting with the state data:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 1 were in Puerto Rico (4.9), Alaska (3.8), Pennsylvania (3.5), New Jersey (3.4), Virgin Islands (3.4), California (3.3), Nevada (3.2), Oregon (3.2), Connecticut (3.1), Arkansas (2.9), and Illinois (2.9).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 8 were in California (+13,882), New York (+8,568), Texas (+4,644), Washington (+3,728), and Pennsylvania (+3,640) while the largest decreases were in Wisconsin (-1,536), North Carolina (-856), South Carolina (-818), and Virgin Islands (-33).

The shares of employment services firms were slightly higher to mixed on the little changed industry relative data Thursday, with Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW) up 2.1%, Korn Ferry International (NYSE: KFY) up 1%, 51job (Nasdaq: JOBS) up 1%, Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA) up 0.6%, Manpower (NYSE: MAN) about even, Robert Half (NYSE: RHI) down 0.2%, and General Employment Enterprises (AMEX: JOB) down 1.8%.

Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.PK), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

eBay a Short-Term Sell and Long-Term Buy

Shares of eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) fell roughly 5% after hours Wednesday, following the company’s third quarter results. eBay’s earnings per share were in line with the analysts’ consensus forecast. However, just meeting expectations is not good enough for a company that has a consistent record of beating the Street. Yahoo Finance indicates eBay exceeded expectations for at least the last four consecutive quarters heading into Q3. Furthermore, the company’s guidance for the coming quarter and the full year were not impressive when compared with the consensus of analysts’ views for the shares. Thus, eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) joins Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), IBM (NYSE: IBM), VMware (NYSE: VMW) and Cree (Nasdaq: CREE) in resetting investor expectations and equity valuations.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers include: Nasdaq: AAPL, Nasdaq: CREE, NYSE: IBM, NYSE: VMW, NYSE: ATV, Nasdaq: AMZN, OTC: ARIS.OB, Nasdaq: BIDZ, Nasdaq: DLIA, Nasdaq: DANG, Nasdaq: EBAY, Nasdaq: GAIA, Nasdaq: IACI, Nasdaq: LINTA, Nasdaq: OSTK, Nasdaq: PCCC, Nasdaq: STMP, Nasdaq: VVTV and Nasdaq: VITC.

eBay a Short-Term Sell and Long-Term Buy

eBay beat the Street on the top line, making $2.97 billion against expectations for $2.91 billion, based on Factset data. eBay reported a 32% increase in revenue against the prior year quarter, attributing its growth to each of its business segments. However, investments made to assimilate acquisitions and market the brand, and some difficulty with the learning curve on mobile business led it to only earn the $0.48 per share (on a non-GAAP basis) that analysts were looking for. According to Yahoo Finance, over the last four quarters, eBay beat estimates by between 2% and 11%. Thus, expectations for the same were likely built into the company’s valuation, and so were squeezed out of it on Wednesday evening. However, by 8:00 PM ET, and after the conference call concluded, the stock had mitigated its decline to minus 4%.

The company’s Payments business generated a 32% net revenue increase, to $1.107 billion. Within Payments, its merchant services business grew sharply in Q3, with net total payment volume rising 36%. eBay’s signature Marketplaces operations generated a 17% net revenue rise, to $1.653 billion. Within this segment, its international gross merchandise volume exceeded the rate of growth in domestic volume, growing 18% to $9.078 billion. The company’s GSI business, the operations just acquired in Q2, generated $203 million in net revenue.

A key problem with the quarter, as far as investors indicated Wednesday evening, was the contraction of the operating margin. Also, it looks as though the margin will hold stubbornly lower than the comparable period through Q4 as well. eBay’s net operating margin was squeezed to 25.3% on a non-GAAP basis in Q3, from 28.7% last year. Executives on the call attributed the contraction to acquisitions, including of GSI, and to business mix. Increasing business via mobile phones played at a higher cost than was expected to be the case. As the company moves up the learning curve, according to executives on the conference call, things should improve. The effective tax rate was also unfavorable against the prior year comparison, but the company’s executives focused their discussion on costs, and assurances of expected improvement over coming quarters. eBay also experienced a higher effective tax rate and completed its share repurchase program in the quarter.

When it came to guidance, eBay raised its outlook, but it seems not enough to satisfy investors. The company guided for a Q4 revenue range of between $3.2 billion and $3.35 billion, but the average of the two points was a bit short of the analysts’ consensus, which according to Yahoo Finance, sits at $3.3 billion. Also, the company’s fourth quarter EPS forecast for between $0.55 to $0.58 matches poorly against the consensus estimate for $0.58. eBay’s full year 2011 revenue forecast for between $11.5 billion and $11.6 billion sits well against the analysts’ consensus estimate for $11.51 billion. However, the company’s EPS forecast range of between $1.98 and $2.01, which is a penny higher than previously forecast, only encompasses the analysts’ consensus view for $2.00. Again, investors were likely looking for more.

Given eBay’s risk tied to the euro and its questionable forecast for an okay holiday season, which is certainly at risk, there appears to be good enough reason to temper short-term enthusiasm for the shares. However, eBay’s Paypal expansion to point of sale, with a beta test at play with one major retailer this Q4, could set this company’s growth into a higher gear in the next few years. According to Yahoo Finance, the company’s P/E/G ratio sits at 1.4, with growth forecast at 12.1% over the next five years. Thus, it seems to me that its trading range should not vary much in the near-term, with downside cushioned by its potential for greater long-term growth and its upside burdened by current issues. Therefore, while I’m cautious over the short-term, based on cost pressures, macroeconomic risks, and what I see as deteriorating broader market sentiment, I would put eBay in a category of names to look up again on weakness based on its opportunity in the emerging blockbuster point of sale business. Therefore, a hold rating would be in order for this stock today for most investors, and depending on your patience and investment style, I would label it a short-term avoid (weak sell) and long-term accumulate (weak buy).

This article should interest investors in Catalog and Mail Order House stocks including Acorn International (NYSE: ATV), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), ARI Network Services (OTC: ARIS.OB), Bidz.com (Nasdaq: BIDZ), dELiA’s (Nasdaq: DLIA), E-Commerce China Dangdang (Nasdaq: DANG), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), Gaiam (Nasdaq: GAIA), IAC/ InterActiveCorp (Nasdaq: IACI), Liberty Interactive (Nasdaq: LINTA), Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK), PC Connection (Nasdaq: PCCC), Stamps.com (Nasdaq: STMP), ValueVision Media (Nasdaq: VVTV) and Vitacost.com (Nasdaq: VITC).

The day's EPS reports came from American Express (NYSE: AXP), Xilinx (Nasdaq: XLNX), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN), St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB). Also look for news from 8X8 (Nasdaq: EGHT), Access National (Nasdaq: ANCX), Amphenol (NYSE: APH), AMR (NYSE: AMR), Amylin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMLN), Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL), Astoria Fin’l (NYSE: AF), ATMI (Nasdaq: ATMI), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Banner (Nasdaq: BANR), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Buffalo Wild Wings (Nasdaq: BWLD), Cardinal Fin’l (Nasdaq: CFNL), Cathay General Bancorp (Nasdaq: CATY), Central Valley Community (Nasdaq: CVCY), Cheesecake Factory (Nasdaq: CAKE), Cirrus Logic (Nasdaq: CRUS), Cohen & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cohu (Nasdaq: COHU), Comerica (NYSE: CMA), Community Trust Bancorp (Nasdaq: CTBI), Core Laboratories (NYSE: CLB), Covanta (NYSE: CVA), Cubist Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CBST), CVB Financial (Nasdaq: CVBF), CYS Investments (NYSE: CYS), Datalink (Nasdaq: DTLK), DiamondRock Hospitality (NYSE: DRH), E*Trade Fin’l (Nasdaq: ETFC), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW), Exponent (Nasdaq: EXPO), F.N.B. Corp. (NYSE: FNB), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Forward Air (Nasdaq: FWRD), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gulfmark Offshore (NYSE: GLF), Heritage Crystal Clean (Nasdaq: HCCI), IDEX (NYSE: IEX), iParty (AMEX: IPT), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP), Kinder Morgan Management (NYSE: KMR), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Knoll (NYSE: KNL), Lam Research (Nasdaq: LRCX), LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE: LHO), Lufkin (Nasdaq: LUFK), M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB), Mastech (NYSE: MHH), Media General (NYSE: MEG), MKS Instruments (Nasdaq: MKSI), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), New York Community Bancorp (NYSE: NYB), Noble (NYSE: NE), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NVE Corp (Nasdaq: NVEC), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PNC Fin’l (NYSE: PNC), Polycom (Nasdaq: PLCM), Popular (Nasdaq: BPOP), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), Riverbed Technology (Nasdaq: RVBD), Rockwood Holdings (NYSE: ROC), S.Y. Bancorp (Nasdaq: SYBT), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sensata Technologies (NYSE: ST), SLM (NYSE: SLM), Spartan Stores (Nasdaq: SPTN), Stepan (NYSE: SCL), Stryker (NYSE: SYK), Supervalu (NYSE: SVU), Swift Transportation (Nasdaq: SWFT), Temple Inland (NYSE: TIN), Texas Capital Bancshares (Nasdaq: TCBI), Textron (NYSE: TXT), Tractor Supply (Nasdaq: TSCO), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), Umpqua (Nasdaq: UMPQ), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Virginia Commerce (Nasdaq: VCBI), West Corp. (Nasdaq: WSTC), Westamerica Bancorp (Nasdaq: WABC), Westell Technologies (Nasdaq: WSTL), Western Digital (NYSE: WDC), Westwood Holdings (NYSE: WHG), WNS Holdings (NYSE: WNS) and Zhone Technologies (Nasdaq: ZHNE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Mortgage Applications Off 14.9%, but Don't Panic

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that weekly mortgage applications fell by 14.9% in the period ending October 14, but don’t panic. We believe we have got the reason for the drop pegged herein, and it’s a one-time event, so relax. If anything, the news out of housing has been positive this week, with Housing Starts reported up in September and the Housing Market Index also improved in October.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Mortgage Applications Off

The MBA’s Market Composite Index collapsed by 14.9%, while the Refinance Index sank by 16.6%. The give-away data point, with regard to panic reconciliation, is the Purchase Index, which measures mortgage applications on home acquisitions. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index also fell excessively, declining by 8.8% against the week just prior.

The naïve reader of the report might want to attribute the mortgage application decline to the increase in mortgage rates that occurred through the same period. The average contracted rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages across the spectrum of jumbo, conforming and FHA sponsored loans all rose. FHA sponsored rates increased to 4.12% from 4.06%. So, we would expect some sort of drop-off in activity, but not the dramatic decline that actually occurred.

As I indicated previously, Purchase Activity is the giveaway. Everything around the purchase of a home moves slowly and takes time and consideration. So, we hardly ever see dramatic changes around mortgage applications for purchases. One might give the rate increase as much weight for driving activity as for cutting it off, since it might spur prospective buyers into acting out of fear that rates might go even higher. Therefore, the near 9 point drop in purchase activity last week cannot be a naturally driven circumstance. Well, no comet struck the earth (yet), and Europe is still solvent, so what was the driver. I believe that it was a factor I’ve pointed out before in this column, the effects of holidays on the data.

While some are better than others, data managers fail to perfectly adjust for holidays. Even if they’ve got the loss of the day perfectly accounted for, they tend to miss the drop-off in business activity that occurs before and after holidays, especially three-day weekends. As a result, though, I expect we’ll see a commensurate unnatural increase in activity next week, when the period matches up against the holiday burdened period. As always, I’m here to clear out the noise for you.

Article should interest investors in Savings & Loan stocks including Alaska Pacific Bankshares (OTC: AKPB.OB), Allied First Bancorp (OTC: AFBA.OB), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), AMB Financial (OTC: AMFC.OB), Ameriana Bancorp (NasdaqCM: ASBI), Anchor Bancorp Wisconsin (Nasdaq: ABCW), Bancorp of New Jersey (AMEX: BKJ), Bank Mutual (Nasdaq: BKMU), BankAtlantic (NYSE: BBX), BankFinancial (Nasdaq: BFIN), Banner (Nasdaq: BANR), BCSB Bancorp (Nasdaq: BCSB), Beacon Federal (Nasdaq: BFED), Berkshire Hills (Nasdaq: BHLB), Blackhawk Bancorp (OTC: BHWB.OB), Blue River Bancshares (OTC: BRBI.OB), Bofi (Nasdaq: BOFI), Broadway Financial (Nasdaq: BYFC), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Brooklyn Federal (Nasdaq: BFSB), Camco Financial (Nasdaq: CAFI), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Carver (Nasdaq: CARV), Cecil Bancorp (OTC: CECB.OB), Center Financial (Nasdaq: CLFC), Central Federal (Nasdaq: CFBK), Chicopee (Nasdaq: CBNK), Citizens South (Nasdaq: CSBC), CKF Bancorp (OTC: CKFB.OB), Clarkston Financial (OTC: CKFC.OB), Clifton Savings (Nasdaq: CSBK), Close Brothers (OTC: CBGPY.PK), Columbia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Consumers (OTC: CBKM.OB), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Enterprise (Nasdaq: EBTC), ESB Financial (Nasdaq: ESBF), ESSA Bancorp (Nasdaq: ESSA), Eureka Financial (OTC: EKFC.OB), FedFirst Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFCO), FFD Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFDF), FFW (OTC: FFWC.OB), First Bancorp of Indiana (OTC: FBPI.OB), First Bancshares (Nasdaq: FBSI), First Capital (Nasdaq: FCAP), First Clover Leaf (Nasdaq: FCLF), First Defiance (Nasdaq: FDEF), First Federal Bancshares of Arkansas (Nasdaq: FFBH), First Financial Holdings (Nasdaq: FFCH), First Independence (OTC: FFSL.OB), First Investors Fin’l Services (OTC: FIFS.PK), First Niagara (Nasdaq: FNFG), First Robinson (OTC: FRFC.OB), First Security Group (Nasdaq: FSGID), First South (Nasdaq: FSBK), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Flatbush Federal (OTC: FLTB.OB), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Greene County (Nasdaq: GCBC), HF Financial (Nasdaq: HFFC), HMN Fin’l (Nasdaq: HMNF), Home Bancorp (Nasdaq: HBCP), Home Federal (Nasdaq: HOME), HopFed (Nasdaq: HFBC), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), Indiana Community (Nasdaq: INCB), Investors Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Jacksonville Bancorp (Nasdaq: JXSB), Jefferson Bancshares (Nasdaq: JFBI), Kaiser Federal (Nasdaq: KFFG), Kearny Fin’l (Nasdaq: KRNY), Kentucky First Federal (Nasdaq: KFFB), Lake Shore Bancorp (Nasdaq: LSBK), Louisiana Bancorp (Nasdaq: LABC), LSB Fin’l (Nasdaq: LSBI), Malvern Federal (Nasdaq: MLVF), Meridian Interstate (Nasdaq: EBSB), Meta Fin’l (Nasdaq: CASH), NASB Fin’l (Nasdaq: NASB), Naugatuck Valley (Nasdaq: NVSL), New England Bancshares (Nasdaq: NEBS), New Hampshire Thrift (Nasdaq: NHTB), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), North Central Bancshares (Nasdaq: FFFD), Northeast Community (Nasdaq: NECB), Northwest Bancshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), OceanFirst (Nasdaq: OCFC), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Oneida (Nasdaq: ONFC), Park Bancorp (Nasdaq: PFED), Parkvale Fin’l (Nasdaq: PVSA), Pathfinder Bancorp (Nasdaq: PBHC), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), Provident Community (Nasdaq: PCBS), Provident Fin’l (Nasdaq: PROV), Provident Fin’l Services (NYSE: PFS), Provident New York (Nasdaq: PBNY), Prudential Bancorp of PA (Nasdaq: PBIP), PSB Holding (Nasdaq: PSBH), Pulaski Fin’l (Nasdaq: PULB), PVF Capital (Nasdaq: PVFC), QC Holding (Nasdaq: QCCO), River Valley Bancorp (Nasdaq: RIVR), Riverview Bancorp (Nasdaq: RVSB), Roma Fin’l (Nasdaq: ROMA), Salisbury Bancorp (AMEX: SAL), SI Financial (Nasdaq: SIFI), Southern Missouri (Nasdaq: SMBC), Sterling Fin’l (Nasdaq: STSA), Teche Holding (AMEX: TSH), TF Fin’l (Nasdaq: THRD), Timberland Bancorp (Nasdaq: TSBK), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBA), United Community Fin’l (Nasdaq: UCFC), United Fin’l Bancorp (Nasdaq: UBNK), Valley Fin’l (Nasdaq: VYFC), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Waterstone Fin’l (Nasdaq: WSBF), Wayne Savings (Nasdaq: WAYN), WSB Holdings (Nasdaq: WSB) and WVS Financial (Nasdaq: WVFC).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.