Consumers Still on Suicide Watch

Most of the tally-taking of the holiday shopping season is reporting a joyous occasion marked by the revival of the consumer. This may have been evidenced by the Conference Board’s December reading of its Consumer Confidence Index Tuesday, as it rose to near a post-recession peak. However, I suggest you take a closer look, because you’ll see that the situation remains bleak.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relevant Tickers: NYSE: XRT, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE.

Consumer Suicide Watch

At 64.5, the Consumer Confidence Index was up a bunch from November’s 55.2 mark. November, not coincidentally, saw the start of holiday shopping deals and also a 15 point surge from October’s 40.9 depressed state. So, it appears consumers’ pseudo-drunken state was the sole source of satisfaction. The same driver was likely behind the general rise in retailer shares over the last half of the year, but we have a warning about that as well, entitled, Sell Consumer Stocks Now, or something like that. Let’s be clear, an index reading 64.5 here does not mark a happy state of affairs, just a better state sadness.

Even Lynn Franco, the Director of the Conference Board Research Center, warned, ”While consumers are ending the year in a somewhat more upbeat mood, it is too soon to tell if this is a rebound from earlier declines or a sustainable shift in attitudes.” I still see mostly bad attitudes where I look. For instance, the Conference Board reports that the number of those surveyed who thought business conditions were good improved all the way up to 16.6%. Those who said business conditions were poor measured a far greater number, at 33.9%, but that was up from 38% the month before. Is this really good news?

Get this, those claiming jobs were plentiful improved to as high as 6.7%, way up from 5.6%. Meanwhile, those who felt like finding employment was difficult in December measured 41.8%, better than November’s 43%. Merry Christmas? Is this really a reason to spread holiday cheer by spending scarce dollars?

Most of the month’s confidence gains came in the expectations portion of the survey. In the past, I’ve warned that investing on this is like putting your money behind a hope and a prayer. Now, I’m the religious sort, but I tend to like to see some evidence of opportunity before investing on it. In the past, confidence gains driven by expectations have been proven easily deflated.

This latest measurement showed the Expectations Index rose to 76.4, up from 66.4. Take note now that the Present Situation Index measured a much lower 46.7, though up from 38.3. Those surveyed who saw business conditions improving over the next six months only increased to 16.7%, up from 13.7%. These gains from the prior month are what you are betting on if you invest on the basis of this month’s data. As you can see, the current state of affairs remains depressed. Of those surveyed, those anticipating improved job opportunities in the months ahead gained to just 13.3%, but that was up from 12.4%. Those who expected fewer jobs numbered a greater 20.2%, but that was improved from 23.8%.

The details of these reports are important, and it remains my pleasure to dissect the data and present it to you in easy reading form so that you may make informed investment decisions based on more than the porous reports of the traffic seeking popular press. The headlines of late have been preoccupied with the apparent positive shift in attitudes and lift in consumer spending, but I still see this economy on suicide watch.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Recession and Strategic Real Estate

No alarm goes off when the economy enters a recession; there is no bell or bright flashing red light. Rather, it is stealthy and silent; activity slows imperceptibly at first and then gathers momentum at which point it is generally too late to make portfolio changes and preparations. As a point, the “Great Recession' is believed to have started in December of 2007, two months before the Dow hit its all-time high of 14,164 on October 9th, 2007. In my opinion, a recession is coming; a deep, nasty, global recession that will affect all corners of the business globe. It may already have started.

Relative tickers: NYSE: ACC, Nasdaq: AGNC, NYSE: AIV, Nasdaq: AMTG, NYSE: ARR, NYSE: AEC, NYSE: AVB, NYSE: BRE, NYSE: CPT, NYSE: CCG, NYSE: CLP, NYSE: CYS, NYSE: EDR, NYSE: ELS, NYSE: EQR, NYSE: ESS, NYSE: HTS, NYSE: HME, OTC: MRTI.PK, NYSE: MAA, Nasdaq: NYMT, NYSE: PMT, NYSE: PPS, NYSE: SNH, NYSE: SUI, NYSE: TWO and NYSE: UDR.

Rental Property Investment Against Recession

If, as I suspect, a recession has indeed started, it will be the first in memory that was not induced and controlled by the Federal Reserve. Typically, the Federal Reserve would monitor business activity and would raise interest rates to dampen an economic expansion and prevent an outbreak of inflation; money supply was withdrawn, and eventually the combination of increasingly higher rates and reduced money supply would contract the economy; the result was a recession. When the economy had cooled, rates were lowered, liquidity restored, and the economy successfully recovered.

This time it is very different. The Federal Reserve is pouring liquidity into the system and rates have been dropped to near zero with nowhere to go; the Federal Reserve is not in control of this Recession. This will be a debt driven recession and there is no recent experience with which to compare the outcome. Further, unemployment in the beginning of a typical recession is generally low starting from an expanding business climate. This may be the first time unemployment will start into a recession as high as 9% nationally. As the slowdown progresses, more and more workers will lose their jobs and unemployment may reach as high as the mid-teens.

Recessions feed upon themselves; business activity slows, which affects incomes from employment. The stock market declines which affects income from capital gains and sometimes dividends. Prices for commodities and finished goods decline leading Master Limited Partnerships (MLP’s) to lower income. Interest rates are near zero so income from CD’s and Money Markets are inconsequential and Treasuries yield little. But rates may even decline from here, so capital gains may be achieved in fixed income investments, but with very little income.

Revenue to pay the bills becomes paramount to surviving an economic slowdown. Reserves are to be used as a last resort, as depleted savings are difficult to replenish. Even in a severe recession, most people are still working. In the Great Depression, unemployment reached as high as 25%; that meant 75% were still employed. The situation becomes dire for those out of work as jobs become more and more scarce and precious. Basic needs still exist, and so industries providing food, shelter, health care, and energy may still deliver returns. If the recession of 2008-2009 can be used as a guide, Strategic Real Estate may also be a safety net.

In the beginning of the last recession in early 2008, rental rates started to decline as unsold properties were forced into the rental pool, adding to the supply. Further, construction workers and undocumented laborers left the construction sector and searched for work elsewhere compounding the vacancy factor. The decline was limited; without additional new construction, within 6-9 months, the supply started to be absorbed and currently the inventory of available rental properties is tight. Rates declined about 15% initially, but the decline was mitigated by an offset in insurance rates, property taxes, and repair costs. Within two years, the rental rates were recovering.

Every recession is different. However, as a primary need, residential rentals may provide a consistent source of income. With rates at historic lows and prices still not recovered from the devastation of the collapse, cash flows have been excellent, with typical returns in the 5-9% range. If current policy continues prohibiting former home owners that have liquidated properties via the short sale process or through foreclosure from purchasing another home for at least 2-4 years, a constant supply of new long-term tenants is assured. Strategically purchased cash flow producing properties will benefit the investor with consistent monthly income and potential capital gains as the economy eventually transitions from recession to recovery. Rental property would also provide a shield of protection should a recession provide an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to flood the economy with unprecedented capital to move the environment from deflation to inflation, and maybe hyper-inflation. Furthermore, deflation is mitigated by the income enhancing properties of a basic needs investment.

There is still time to prepare; a prudent investor can protect his portfolio by limiting exposure to traditional risky assets, and adding to currency equivalents like gold and silver. Also, negatively correlated ETF’s can be used to mitigate a possible downturn, and income enhancers such as basic rentals can be acquired to provide monthly income streams. In our view, a portion of a diversified portfolio should benefit if it were to be allocated to Strategic Real Estate of the sort we suggest here. Any non-cash flowing or underwater property owned by the investor needs to be reviewed, and we believe any property that cannot be justified for its investment potential needs to be liquidated immediately!

Consult your licensed financial advisor of good reputation and integrity before making investment decisions, as a good advisor will learn your individual situation, needs and current exposure, and help find the best route forward for each individual as a result.

This article should interest investors in residential REIT stocks like American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Apartment Investment and Management (NYSE: AIV), Apollo Residential Mortgage (Nasdaq: AMTG), ARMOUR Residential REIT (NYSE: ARR), Associated Estates Realty (NYSE: AEC), AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Campus Crest Communities (NYSE: CCG), Colonial Properties Trust (NYSE: CLP), CYS Investments (NYSE: CYS), Education Realty Trust (NYSE: EDR), Equity LifeStyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Hatteras Financial (NYSE: HTS), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Maxus Realty Trust (OTC: MRTI.PK), Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE: MAA), New York Mortgage Trust (Nasdaq: NYMT), PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE: PMT), Post Properties (NYSE: PPS), Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Two Harbors Investment (NYSE: TWO) and UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Ho Ho Humbug to your Labor Data Display

I said it last week and I reiterate it today. Ho ho humbug on Jobless Claims! Yet again, the popular press and mainstream business channels pumped the holiday cheer for weekly unemployment benefits. Still, what I suspect my colleagues missed, probably due to too much eggnog over lunch, was that it’s the week before Christmas… and all through the house, nobody is getting fired, except for maybe the mousy little receptionist.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.PK, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

Ho Ho Humbug!

Weekly Jobless Claims for the week ending December 17 were reported down another 4,000 to 364K. That was off the prior week’s revised figure, which posted marked improvement. However, we noted last week that the holiday season likely played a role in the improvement despite seasonal adjustments. And we noted then, and reiterate now, that even if the labor market were improving, the economic outlook is poised to undermine it once again.

Perhaps because we’ve been scribbling longer than many of the grunts reporting on the subject on Thursday, or maybe just because we care if we’re right or wrong, we noted that this sentimental benefit related to the holiday season existed last year as well. If you’ll recall, the labor market still languished in 2011, and that was during a period of supposed economic growth.

That said, the four-week moving average of jobless claims improved by 8,000 through the period, to 380,250. Again though, the marked improvement from the prior week period combined with the continuation of lower claims levels this week, were the driver. There’s no long-term trend here yet, and I suggest traders wait until mid-January to start buying into a labor market inflection point. Otherwise, ye merry gentlemen may find all your gifts have been lifted by wiser men than ye.

The other great farce found in this regular report is the continuing claims data. This time covering the period ending December 10 (a week lagged), insured unemployment improved by a tenth of a percent to 2.8%. That accounted for 3,546,000 people and an improvement of 79K.

Still, the most unbelievable of the data is in the reported insured unemployment under all programs line, which includes the benefits extension program. According to the DOL, for the period ending December 3, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs improved by 299,738 and now includes 7,149,769 Americans. This figure in particular has been fluctuating wildly over recent weeks and is highly suspect in my view. If there truly is a drop-off in the number fitting into this poor souls’ pool, I expect it is more likely due to their falling out of the workforce or overrunning their 99 weeks, rather than their finding jobs.

While I probably should feel a little sorry for raining on the holiday party, I in fact do enjoy playing the role of the Grinch here this year. So to all the little Whos in Whoville, I say your joy is unfounded! As a result, any investment flurry inspired by it is confounded! Ho ho humbug to your labor data display.

Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.PK), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Housing Starts for the Suckers in Pottersville

The popular press, radio and television media celebrated the “strong housing starts” reported for November Tuesday. The shares of homebuilders had a good time too, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) up 5.3%. However, after a look at the report, I say bah humbug! That’s because while housing starts ran at a higher rate, they occurred in a specific segment of the market that I suggest offers few good tidings for the real estate market. It’s a great sign for the likes of Mr. Potter, from It’s a Wonderful Life though.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: Nasdaq: ITIC, NYSE: BAC, OTC: FMCC.OB, OTC: FNMA.OB, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: SRS, NYSE: URE, NYSE: IGR, NYSE: XIN, Nasdaq: RYHRX, Nasdaq: TRREX, NYSE: TOL, NYSE: HOV, NYSE: DHI, NYSE: BZH, NYSE: LEN, NYSE: KBH, NYSE: PHM, NYSE: NVR, NYSE: GFA, NYSE: MDC, NYSE: RYL, NYSE: MTH, NYSE: BHS, NYSE: SPF, NYSE: MHO, AMEX: OHB, NYSE: VNQ, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: JPM, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: ETH, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: WSM, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Nasdaq: AVTR, NYSE: AIV, NYSE: EQR, NYSE: AVB, NYSE: UDR, NYSE: ESS, NYSE: CPT, NYSE: SNH, NYSE: BRE, NYSE: HME, NYSE: MAA, NYSE: ELS, NYSE: ACC, NYSE: CLP, Nasdaq: AGNC, NYSE: SUI, NYSE: AEC, NYSE: PMT and AMEX: TWO, NYSE: SPG.

Housing Starts for the Suckers in Pottersville

Housing Starts rose a strong 9.3% over October’s revised rate and an astounding 24.3% over last year’s sad affair. Building Permits ran at a 5.7% higher rate than in October and posted an impressive 20.7% increase over the prior year period. Yet, Starts at an annual rate of 685K and Permits at a rate of 681K were far less impressive after closer inspection of the data.

The reason for my lack of enthusiasm should be obvious, but is clearly not to an undiscerning majority, nor to investors in Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) or Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), who all enjoyed double-digit gains Tuesday. However, I expect the gains in homebuilders will prove fleeting. You see, most of the activity occurred in multi-family housing, not in single-family homes. Single-Family Housing Starts only increased 2.3% over October’s rate, to 447K, and Single-Family Home Permits only rose by 1.6% over October’s rate, to 435K.

Multi-family projects could be intended to house renters. A housing start measures the start of construction of a project intended for residential use. The properties do not necessarily need to be presold. Therefore, the 32.2% increase in structures intended to house five or more family units may very likely be for a Pottersville-like purpose, to house the “suckers in Potter’s slums,” from the famed and seasonally appropriate film. We should not be surprised, given today’s higher credit standards, increased levels of unemployment and underemployment, and a population less likely to attain home ownership. This is not something to celebrate, though, not in my view.

Single-family starts were on the rise in the Northeast and the West though, increasing 35.7% and 10.7%, respectively. Single-family starts in the Midwest and the South fell 14.5% and 1.3%, respectively. Multi-family projects were on the sharp rise in both the Northeast and West as well, though, so there appears to perhaps be a housing shortage being filled. It makes sense that distressed property inventory would first be absorbed by the population dense Northeast and West. Generally speaking, this is a development that should be expected, given the length of the period with little construction and the continued growth and maturation of the population. However, it’s too early, and the data is too limited to make such a call.

Besides, with our economic view, and the related stumbling block we see for housing over the near-term, any green shoot that may sprout should be quickly dried out. In conclusion, I’ll hold my excitement for when single-family starts initiate a rising trend, and more importantly, when economic healing drives increased general demand for housing.

Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Investors Title (Nasdaq: ITIC), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO), Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

magicJack Vocal Tec (Nasdaq: CALL) - The Magic is Back

Shares of magicJack Vocal Tec (Nasdaq: CALL) were among the market’s leading gainers last Friday, on news of strong fourth quarter sales of the company’s latest Internet telephony device. The shares also got extra lift from a second simultaneous announcement, as the company canceled a dilutive share offering. The unexpected sales provided the needed operating capital in the offering’s stead. Shares of CALL were up 18% on the day, placing the company among the market’s leading gainers.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: Nasdaq: ALSK, NYSE: T, Nasdaq: ATNI, NYSE: BCE, NYSE: CTL, NYSE: CHT, NYSE: CBB, Nasdaq: CNSL, Nasdaq: EONC, Nasdaq: EQIX, Nasdaq: FRP, Nasdaq: FTR, Nasdaq: HTCO, OTC: IAGI.PK, Nasdaq: CALL, Nasdaq: SHEN, Nasdaq: SURW, Nasdaq: TWTC, Nasdaq: UNTK, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: VG, Nasdaq: WWVY, Nasdaq: WIN, Nasdaq: AMCX, Nasdaq: ASCMA, NYSE: CVC, Nasdaq: CHTR, Nasdaq: CMCSA, Nasdaq: CRWN, Nasdaq: DTV, Nasdaq: DISCA, Nasdaq: DISH, Nasdaq: LBTYA, Nasdaq: LNET, NYSE: SJR, Nasdaq: TIVO, Nasdaq: VMED.

See my review of the old magicJack

The Magic is Back

It appears the magic may in fact be back for magicJack (Nasdaq: CALL). The company announced Friday that its latest product, the magicJack Plus, is basically selling like hotcakes (whatever that means), with approximately 365K units sold in the last 30 days. The original magicJack device needed to be plugged into a computer connected to the internet to make use of it, but the magicJack Plus connects directly into the internet line. Thus, you do not have to keep your computer on 24/7 to make or receive phone calls. It’s a major upgrade in technology and utility value, and the price is likewise higher, retailing at $69.95, versus the $39.95 price for the original magicJack.

Because of the strong sales, the company expects to have a cash store of approximately $50 million by next month. Thus, it was able to kill its planned share offering. Not only did it do so, but the company will renew its share repurchase program as well. It’s an interesting shift in capital management that I find telling about the management team’s forecasting prowess. That means that both upside and downside surprises are highly possible in the future as well. Such unreliability and uncertainty likely burdens the company’s valuation a bit.

Internet telephony has been an interesting market to follow. We saw Vonage (NYSE: VG) dive after its high profile IPO in the middle of the last decade. However, Vonage’s product price point probably was not or is not far enough off the major telecoms to stick, in my view. VG shares still rose in sympathy with CALL Friday, up 7.3%, to $2.36. Likewise, Skype, now owned by Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), did well enough but never caught on with the broad populace. Perhaps it was just too early or maybe the tech savvy needed to use it was too much for an older demographic of American citizens. It’s clear, though, that with the evolution of technology usage, Internet telephony will be an easy learn. Meanwhile, magicJack just made it easy enough for even non-tech savvy seniors to use.

Eventually, the Verizon’s (NYSE: VZ), AT&T’s (NYSE: T) and Sprint Nextel’s (NYSE: S) of the world will feel threatened by internet telephony and magicJack, if they aren’t already. I’ve noted that the price difference between Verizon’s independent internet service and internet and telephone service bundle is marginal, leaving me to question whether “the jack” would really offer worthwhile savings given the convenience trade-off of the first model. I suspect Verizon and other internet providers have priced this way for this very reason. You can get cheaper internet service from the big boys of the industry, but you get less bandwidth in return. Now this second product model by magicJack presents a different story, and given that the ability to port your old number has finally arrived, the game may be on.

The important question to ask is what strategy will the telecom giants employ to crush this emerging competition. Well, the big box players are well positioned to do so, given that they control the internet. However, I could see the cable providers, who are also providers of bandwidth, like Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) having interest in acquiring a magicJack in order to provide a more competitive bundle package against the telecom players’ offerings. Thus, the new magicJack might be more than just a nifty product for a thrifty spender. Its shares and those of similar servicers might find broad appeal one way or another. Given that a recent census poll showed about half of America is poor, and given the number appears to be increasing, even the worst case scenario seems to present an expanding market opportunity.

There’s just one analyst following the company, based on Yahoo Finance data. His EPS estimate for 2012 appears to be $1.83, which puts its P/E ratio at 13.1X as of Friday. While EPS growth looks to approximate 71% in 2012, the long-term growth estimate is 17.5%, again based on Yahoo Finance and its data providers. Based on this thumbnail, the stock would appear undervalued. The question is, can Internet telephony, and more importantly, the MagicJack, really replace standard telephone service? It once seemed unlikely, but there certainly is a market of bargain seekers willing to try it out, and that market is expanding as economic difficulties continue. Meanwhile, the technology just got easier to operate.

I suspect there is untapped value in recurring revenue not currently being maximized. Today, you buy the magicJack and have telephone service all year long, and then are asked to pay the same amount the following year to continue using the service (though the company stretches that revenue across the year). I suspect that an acquirer would create value by raising the monthly charge tied to magicJack usage through the year. So, while lowering the revenue received currently through telephone service provision, they could also add value to the acquired service and position more competitively against the big three telecom providers. I see this as a clear opportunity for the cable industry, but bad news for the savvy consumer now benefiting from his "jack".

The stock’s chart seemed to show market disinterest until volume picked up in 2010. The cure for questions is earnings growth, and earnings visibility is a new development here. As earnings grow now, and with a P/E near single digits, there would be little stopping the share price following earnings per share higher. The company managed to sell 8 million of its original magicJacks® into a market of roughly 100 million households. This newest product is far superior and the economics more attractive. Its appeal can reach a broader span of Americans, in my view. So, I am a short to medium term fan of magicJack shares (Nasdaq: CALL) and recommend them for aggressive, emerging growth and micro to small cap portfolios.

Editor’s Note: This article should interest investors in Alaska Communications Systems Group (Nasdaq: ALSK), AT&T (NYSE: T), Atlantic Tele-Network (Nasdaq: ATNI), BCE Inc. (NYSE: BCE), CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL), Chunghwa Telecom (NYSE: CHT), Cincinnati Bell (NYSE: CBB), Consolidated Communications (Nasdaq: CNSL), eOn Communications (Nasdaq: EONC), Equinix (Nasdaq: EQIX), FairPoint Communications (Nasdaq: FRP), Frontier Communications (Nasdaq: FTR), Hickory Tech (Nasdaq: HTCO), IA Global (OTC: IAGI.PK), magicJack VocalTec (Nasdaq: CALL), Shenandoah Telecommunications (Nasdaq: SHEN), SureWest Communications (Nasdaq: SURW), tw telecom (Nasdaq: TWTC), UniTek Global Services (Nasdaq: UNTK), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Vonage (NYSE: VG), Warwick Valley Telephone (Nasdaq: WWVY), Windstream Corp. (Nasdaq: WIN), AMC Networks (Nasdaq: AMCX), Ascent Media (Nasdaq: ASCMA), Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), Charter Communications (Nasdaq: CHTR), Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA), Crown Media (Nasdaq: CRWN), DIRECTV (Nasdaq: DTV), Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA), DISH Network (Nasdaq: DISH), Liberty Global (Nasdaq: LBTYA), LodgeNet Interactive (Nasdaq: LNET), Shaw Communications (NYSE: SJR), TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) and Virgin Media (Nasdaq: VMED).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Great Successor Cometh

Today's hottest news links highlighted by the death of Kim Jong Il, and the advent of the Great Successor, Kim Jong Un. You'll also find news of the development of a super-virus by Dutch scientists, the most dangerous in history, and the unfathomable story of its unguarded status. Check out our hand-picked stories here below, found here daily and always interesting.

The Great Successor

• Dutch Lab Develops Most Dangerous Virus World has Ever Known, Leaves it Unguarded


• House Begins Debating Payroll Tax Cut


• Iowa Caucus Faces Hacking Threat


• The Christmas Blizzard of 2012


• Monday Night Football Blackout and Bomb Threat


• China Recognizes Kim Jong Un


• Il Under Glass


• Housing Sentiment Gains will Prove Fleeting


• Housing Starts Jump in November


• Wisconsin Scientist Also Develops Dangerous Virus


• Euro Finds Footing on Spanish Debt Sale and German Data


• Spain’s Blowout Bond Auction


• Germany Posts Strong Data


• Rising Ingredients Costs Grind General Mills (NYSE: GIS)


• ConAgra (NYSE: CAG) Also Beaten by Costs


• Japan Picks Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) for Fighter Upgrade


• Gold Gains Ground


• Jefferies (NYSE: JEF) Profit Drops


• Winn-Dixie (Nasdaq: WINN) Sold to Bi-Lo


• On-Line Sales Rock the House


• Sanctions on Iranian Oil will Impact Europe and Japan


• Deutsche Telekom Slams US Regulators (OTC: DTEGY.PK)


• Oil Climbs for Second Straight Day


• Repsol Buys Back Shares from Troubled Holder (OTC: REPYY.PK)


• Navistar Rises on Strong Profit (NYSE: NAV)


• Activists Plotting Egypt’s Fall


• Sweden Predicts Unchanged Rates


• Apple’s Patent Victory Not Expected to have Major Impact (Nasdaq: AAPL)


• Arab League Monitors Arriving in Syria


• Barney Frank Flaunts his Man Boobs


• Payroll Processors Say 2 Month Fix Impossible to Implement


• Oakland Port Measures Considered


• Carbon Time Bomb Ticks in Arctic


• Another Billionaire Joins Space Race


• Yahoo! Earnings Calendar

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

magicJack Product Review

Review of magicJack

magicJack Rating: Asto!

Ratings Range from Opa! (favorable) to O.K. - Ola Kala (neutral) to Asto! (do without)

Your favorite blogger here was enamored with the idea of a cheaper telephone service, and became a pioneering owner of the magicJack last year. The product served the purpose some of the time, but also produced weird feedback for those on the other end of the line at other times. I found ways around that, discovering that the system worked better if I plugged my phone into the magicJack instead of speaking via the microphone of my laptop. What bothered me most, though, was a broken promise made by the company.

I bought the product partly on the promise that I would be able to transfer my highly coveted 212 NYC area coded number to the system. That promise of “available soon” turned into a year of the same statement, and then a promise of notification once it would become available. I, therefore, never benefited economically speaking from my ownership of the magicJack, as I kept paying for my landline simultaneously. That was not satisfactory, considering I was really happy about the idea of a dirt cheap telephone service to replace the expensive service I hardly ever use anyway.

I won’t be buying the new version of the magicJack based on those broken promises of the past. However, if the magicJack people want to send me a sample of the new model, I will gladly review it here and be thankful for the healing of my experience.

Editor’s Note: This article should interest investors in Alaska Communications Systems Group (Nasdaq: ALSK), AT&T (NYSE: T), Atlantic Tele-Network (Nasdaq: ATNI), BCE Inc. (NYSE: BCE), CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL), Chunghwa Telecom (NYSE: CHT), Cincinnati Bell (NYSE: CBB), Consolidated Communications (Nasdaq: CNSL), eOn Communications (Nasdaq: EONC), Equinix (Nasdaq: EQIX), FairPoint Communications (Nasdaq: FRP), Frontier Communications (Nasdaq: FTR), Hickory Tech (Nasdaq: HTCO), IA Global (OTC: IAGI.PK), magicJack VocalTec (Nasdaq: CALL), Shenandoah Telecommunications (Nasdaq: SHEN), SureWest Communications (Nasdaq: SURW), tw telecom (Nasdaq: TWTC), UniTek Global Services (Nasdaq: UNTK), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Vonage (NYSE: VG), Warwick Valley Telephone (Nasdaq: WWVY) and Windstream Corp. (Nasdaq: WIN).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Outlook Weighed by North Korea, Europe and DC

The mood was set sour Monday morning in Asia, though a sketchy start still had European shares in the green. North Korean state television reported the death of its leader Kim Jong Il, and considering the age of the leader’s youngest son and expected successor, Kim Jong Un, uncertainty rules today. The NIKKEI 225 Index and Hang Seng Index were down over a full percentage point on those concerns. Last week, Fitch Ratings followed Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) downgrade of Belgium with a warning that it may downgrade the debt ratings of European nations soon. The S&P 500 Index was up 0.3% Friday despite ratings threats, and so American shares may take a different direction than Asia. Still, the North Korean uncertainty dictates a wary market at best. The dollar is stronger against the euro, as capital seeks safety.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Stock Market Outlook

American trading may also take its lead from Washington D.C. Monday. House Majority Leader Boehner said his GOP colleagues would reject the bill that passed the Senate in overwhelming fashion. The bill extends tax policy for two months, allowing Congress to avoid the year-end deadline and take off for the holidays. Depending on how the bill does in the House, we may see the payroll tax and unemployment extension debate run up to Christmas Eve. The uncertainty in Washington is likely to weigh on the tone of trading Monday morning, though I suspect traders expect Congress to come to a deal before the deadline. After all, that is the precedent. However, given the fact that the rhetoric from House Republicans does not match the agreement of the Senate GOP members, there is some question as to whether the New Year will come first. If that happens and taxes rise and unemployment benefit extensions expire, the market will pay a penalty.

Just one relatively insignificant economic data point reaches the wire Monday, with the reporting of the Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI, produced by the National Association of Home Builders, measures the mood of the home construction industry. The index improved to a mark of 20 in November, mostly on builders’ better though questionable expectations given what appeared an improving housing market. However, given that housing recovery faces new economic threat, and with continued strife around Europe, we suspect there will be little to no more positive change here. Still, builders may not yet see the economic issues we see ahead.

China reported that home prices had fallen in November in 49 of the 70 cities it monitors, compared to the 33 cities showing drops in prices in October. If the Chinese real estate market is about to collapse, global confidence could likewise be completely lost, in my view. I’ll have more to say about China later this week. Other international data reaching the wire Monday includes November unemployment for Hong Kong, November export and import data for Thailand, and October industrial production and retail sales for Colombia.

The global finance wire has a trilateral meeting of U.S., Indian and Japanese representatives in Washington D.C. Some $1.22 billion of Greek debt comes due Monday. The U.K. will respond to its banking commission’s recommendations.

The corporate wire has Russell adding 31 recent IPO offerings to its Global Index, perhaps giving lift to some as index funds add them to holdings. IPO lockup restrictions expire on Vanguard Health Systems (NYSE: VHS). The International Trade Commission will rule on Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) patent case against HTC. Monday’s earnings schedule includes Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Shiloh Industries (Nasdaq: SHLO), Park Electrochemical (NYSE: PKE), Piedmont Natural Gas (NYSE: PNY) for certain, and possibly from Brooklyn Federal Bancorp (Nasdaq: BFSB), China Direct Industries (Nasdaq: CDII), China Holdings Real Estate (Nasdaq: HGSH), Citizens Community Bancorp (Nasdaq: CZWI), CPI Corp. (NYSE: CPY), CSP Inc. (Nasdaq: CSPI), Dynasil Corp. of America (Nasdaq: DYSL), Emcore (Nasdaq: EMKR), Ennis (NYSE: EBF), Good Times Restaurants (Nasdaq: GTIM), Integrated Electrical Services (Nasdaq: IESC), Jiangbo Pharmaceuticals (OTC: JGBO.PK), MVC Capital (NYSE: MVC), Pansoft (Nasdaq: PSOF), Seanergy Maritime (Nasdaq: SHIP) and VCG Holding (Nasdaq: VCGH).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Recession and the Real Estate Market

On data as early as September, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has been warning that their Leading Indicators were signaling a new recession. Economic forecasts are notorious for predicting 15 of the last 7 recessions and are unreliable at best. However, ECRI has never issued a false warning and their pronouncement is to be taken seriously; most recently, having called both the beginning and the end of the “Great Recession”. Furthermore, in the summer and early fall of 2010, the economy had slowed dramatically and fears of an informal “double-dip recession” were rampant; ECRI called the slowdown, but refused to predict the US would tip into a recession at that time. Their proprietary forward looking indicators were still dropping as of October 21, 2011 to a minus 10.1, the lowest level since July of 2010 and they are now warning of a global recession. There is a lag from Wall Street to Main Street of about 4-6 months; if Lakshman Acuthan is correct, the stock market will turn down followed by a dramatic slowing in the general economy. At the moment, business activity is still viable and active, but according to ECRI, the US is vulnerable to an economic shock, which could result in an explosive downturn.

Relative tickers: Nasdaq: ITIC, NYSE: BAC, OTC: FMCC.OB, OTC: FNMA.OB, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: SRS, NYSE: URE, NYSE: IGR, NYSE: XIN, Nasdaq: RYHRX, Nasdaq: TRREX, NYSE: TOL, NYSE: HOV, NYSE: DHI, NYSE: BZH, NYSE: LEN, NYSE: KBH, NYSE: PHM, NYSE: NVR, NYSE: GFA, NYSE: MDC, NYSE: RYL, NYSE: MTH, NYSE: BHS, NYSE: SPF, NYSE: MHO, AMEX: OHB, NYSE: VNQ, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: JPM, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: ETH, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: WSM, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Nasdaq: AVTR, NYSE: AIV, NYSE: EQR, NYSE: AVB, NYSE: UDR, NYSE: ESS, NYSE: CPT, NYSE: SNH, NYSE: BRE, NYSE: HME, NYSE: MAA, NYSE: ELS, NYSE: ACC, NYSE: CLP, Nasdaq: AGNC, NYSE: SUI, NYSE: AEC, NYSE: PMT and AMEX: TWO, NYSE: SPG.

Recession and Real Estate

Real estate cannot escape the effects of a downturn in the economy. Even though there is a diversification afforded by the nature of a distinctly different asset class, real estate and housing are still economically sensitive. The past 4 years have removed virtually all of the oversupply of new construction produced in the frantic bubble years, as well as clearing a huge volume of the distressed and lender-owned properties. A new recession will add to shadow inventory and reduce buyer demand as fewer buyers will qualify. Inevitably, this will put downward pressure on recovering real estate prices across the nation.

Nationally, it will be difficult to quantify the decline as areas such as the Dakotas, enjoying the benefits from both oil and agriculture, will feel little distress. Areas where finance and government drive the local economies, such as New York City and Washington DC, may be hard hit as payrolls shrink to adjust to lower revenues. The luxury home market will suffer both from current homeowners’ loss of income and potential buyers’ difficulty in obtaining Jumbo Loans above Fannie Mae (OTC: FMNA.OB) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB) limits, as risk averse lenders raise requirements to shield from potential losses.

Nick Russo of Russ Trading, www.russtrading.com, an investment adviser with an impressive record of insightful predictions including the real estate bubble and the financial meltdown of 2008, recently suggested a 10% decline annually for the next 3 years. Mr. Russo believes a debt driven event is inevitable and may be imminent, with some estimates of $300 trillion of global public debt and the possibility of $700 trillion in derivatives. Mr. Russo further believes the confluence of social fracturing, political polarization, and deteriorating financial factors have created an unsustainable debt load. The “Sand States,” which were devastated by the real estate implosion, may experience less impact, particularly in the financing favored entry level segments, as those areas have already corrected and in some instances over-corrected. Some properties are still selling at a considerable discount to insurance industry estimated replacement costs.

Mr. Nicolas Russo, who is credited with coining the phrase “The Big Rollover”, has advice for the possibility of a prolonged and deep recession:

1. Keep 3 months worth of expenses in cash; split 50/50 between US Dollars and Canadian Dollars and/or Swiss Francs.
2. 1 year’s worth of expenses in a Short-Term US Treasuries or an ETF such as SHY.
3. 1 year’s worth of expenses in physical gold and silver in 70% and 30% portions.

One’s portfolio should be proportioned:

• 25% Bonds in Ginnie Mae and Emerging Market Debt, not Long-Term US Treasuries which he believes may be in a bubble.
• 15% Gold/Silver ETF’s and stocks
• 25% Strategic Real Estate which would include a personal residence and a Back Door Escape where one’s family may seek refuge if there is social upheaval or chaos. Also included would be cash flow generating discounted residential real estate leveraged judiciously (70% LTV). Mr. Russo warned Real Estate is not as liquid, but represented a value play particularly in the entry level segment.
• 35% Foreign Commodity, Tangibles, Collectibles, and Oil (Mideast disruption), Pipelines, Natural Gas, Growth & Income Conservative Stocks, Utilities; all designed to enhance income.

One of the recurring themes for mitigating the effects of an economic downturn is cash flow enhancements to provide extra revenue streams from investments in a yield starved environment. Strategic Real Estate composed of discounted rental properties, which are still available, could yield to the passive investor a 5%-7% cash on cash net return. In an environment where 30-year Treasury Bonds are yielding under 3%, Residential Rental Real Estate and Commercial Properties tenanted by stable, long-term tenants, particularly a medical industry related tenant could be terrific investments providing income, capital gains potential, and should a conservative amount of leverage be employed, loan reduction. Although no guarantee of future performance, during the “Great Recession” of 2007-2009, the revenue stream from the Residential Rental Properties tended to hold relatively constant and produced consistent income; the value, however, did decline. This is an investment for a 10-15% allocation of the fixed income portion of a well-diversified portfolio with a time horizon of at least 5 years to allow for the potential economic storm to pass.

An economic downturn may not be inevitable, however, there is still time to take prudent precautions. Should the Federal Reserve continue to add to the monetary system, inflation could ignite, in which case, hard assets such as Real Estate will benefit. Should the economy continue to decline, fewer buyers will qualify causing greater rental demand which will result in consistent income. Badly beaten and devastated Residential Rental Real Estate may prove to be the asset class that protects wealth. Strategic Real Estate should be considered as part of a longer term cash generating investment portfolio. Conversely, properties purchased during the “bubble” years or shortly thereafter, those that are underwater and are cash flow negative, need serious consideration for immediate liquidation. These non-cash flowing properties represent a liability and drag on earnings that may jeopardize a portfolio; the short sale process should be fully utilized. Please consult with your financial advisor.

Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Investors Title (Nasdaq: ITIC), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO), Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Styling News Wire 12-16-11

The day's stylin news wire highlights the latest of the GOP presidential debates. In the most recent construct, Michelle Bachmann took on Ron Paul's passive stance on Iran, calling it wildly dangerous (and I agree - how about you?). Rick Perry compared himself to Tim Tebow in a bid to be Iowa's most conservative option. Speaking of Iran, Russian officials caught and seized a shipment of radioactive materials which were destined for Iran. All the day's styling news follows.

In Style

• Lawmakers Agree on Budget, Work Toward Payroll Tax and Unemployment Agreement


• Bachmann Calls Paul’s Passive Position on Iran Wildly Dangerous


• RIM Shares Continue Tumult (Nasdaq: RIMM)


• How Zynga Got to $9 Billion (Nasdaq: ZNGA)


• GOP’s Perry Compares Himself to Tim Tebow


• IMF Stirs Fear with 1930s Comparison


• Assistant Coach Confesses to Witnessing Sandusky Molesting Boy


• U.S. Mayors Note Rise in Poverty and Homelessness


• Italy’s Monti Wins Gov’t Confidence Vote


• Consumer Prices Up in November


• French Launch War of Words Against British


• Facebook’s Timeline Going Live on Desktop and Android (Nasdaq: GOOG)


• Russia Added to WTO


• Former Fannie (OTC: FNMA.OB) and Freddie (OTC: FMCC.OB) Execs Charged with Fraud


• Fitch Downgrades Goldman (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and BofA (NYSE: BAC)


• NY High School Athletes Suspended for Tebowing


• Free Shipping Day Could Surpass Cyber Monday


• Spanish & Italian Bonds Advance on ECB Demand, Bunds Rise


• Landry’s Owner Buys Morton’s (NYSE: MRT)


• United Rentals (NYSE: URI) Buys RSC (NYSE: RRR) For $1.9 Billion


• Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) Down 15% on Loss of COO


• Irish Comeback in Doubt


• US Trade War with China over Chicken Feet


• National Retail Federation Revises Forecast, Sees Record Year


• Gold Prices Stabilize


• Russian Customs Seize Iran Bound Custom Materials


• Internet Architects Oppose US Anti Piracy Bills


• Best Holiday Shopping Deals


• Dollar, Yen Fall, Euro Rises


• School District Bans Christmas Cookies


• Florida Students Flash Rally at Governor’s Mansion


• Christopher Hitchens Dead Today


• Comet Lovejoy Survives its Close Pass of the Sun


• Yahoo! Earnings Calendar

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Ironic News 12-15-11

Today's ironic news highlights our formal departure from Iraq. Ironically, what took roughly ten years might have occurred naturally during this year's Arab Spring and cost us nothing. Weekly Jobless Claims were reported the lowest since May of 2008, but Markos says beware, as the holiday season like played a role. Furthermore, European upheaval should play an important role in our future economic well-being. A census poll showed half of the American population is poor. Enjoy all the day's ironic news here below.

Ironic News

• Census Data Shows Half of Americans Poor


• U.S. Formally Withdrawals from Iraq


• Weekly Jobless Claims at 3-Year Low


• Morgan Stanley Slashing 1600 Jobs (NYSE: MS)


• Retailers Raise Holiday Outlook


• Draghi: Europe on Track


• Howard Stern to Judge on America’s Got Talent


• Michael Kors (Nasdaq: KORS) Soars in IPO


• The European Crisis You’re Not Hearing About


• Putin Defends Election Result


• Gold Extends Decline


• Republican Disconnect with America Evident in Jobs Legislation


• Italy Risks Social Explosion


• Factory Output Declined Sharply in November


• FedEx (NYSE: FDX) Posts Strong Q2


• Percentage of Married Couples Lowest in History


• Former French President Chirac Found Guilty of Corruption


• Bird Kill: Thousands Mistaking Parking Lots for Ponds


• Mortgage Rates Touch Record Low


• Gingrich Slammed by National Review


• Homeless Man Uses Stolen Credit Card for Pedicure


• Obama: No Need to Raise Taxes Nor Shut Down Gov’t


• European Banks Downgraded (NYSE: UBS)


• Brazil Sues Chevron (NYSE: CVX)


• Philly Area Manufacturing Improved


• Victoria’s Secret Implicated in Child Labor Suit (NYSE: LTD)


• Oil Prices Drop


• Swiss Franc Extends Gains Over Dollar and Euro


• Producer Prices Edge Higher


• Zynga IPO on Deck


• Yahoo! Earnings Calendar

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Today’s Republican Disconnect with America

I sat up late the other night watching the C-SPAN coverage of the House of Representatives debate on the payroll tax break and unemployment benefit extensions. I was appalled by the Republican positions, and the recurring tone I keep hearing from the party I use to call my own and whose conservative values I continue to agree with. I’m now an independent due to the perversions that have eroded each party’s core message. Economically speaking, I see neither current version of the Republican nor Democratic Party as holding the perfect cure to what ails us. While another article might discuss my concern with the Democratic Party’s embrace and promotion of immoral practices for the sake of personal liberation, this article is focused on the Republican disconnect with America or the great poverty stricken segment of America. This broken rail was once again evidenced in the latest legislative lunacy.

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Today's Republican Disconnect with America

In case you’ve been caught up in holiday shopping or catching up with work before your holiday vacation, our Congress is currently entangled in a messy legislative debate over the future of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance benefits. Basically, last year’s program extensions need to be renewed again this year, or those temporary benefits will expire. If that happens, Americans will face new burdens at a still vulnerable time for our economy.

The Payroll Tax break against Social Security payments would lift that rate back up to 6.2% from its current 4.2% break rate. Your shock is well-founded, as those tax cuts are shorting the same Social Security program that is already handicapped if not doomed. And yes, we are underfunding it even worse than usual today as part of an effort to stimulate spending and the economy. There is, however, a new budget-minded focus within Congress that is seeking ways to fund these cuts. For instance, the savings from the Iraq troop withdrawal have been put forth as one potential source. The Democrats would like to bank those savings against the budget deficit and instead institute a new surtax on those Americans with incomes of more than $1 million. As you may have guessed, the Republican Party opposes any tax increase, even if it be upon those who can afford to offer a helping hand now.

This legislative issue weighs for Americans who are already earning a steady income, though it is surely critical to part-timers with a shortage of fund flows. Another issue at hand could more significantly affect America, as it supports Americans who have no other source of income currently. It is what keeps people housed and from committing crimes of necessity; it is what keeps hope alive.

Unemployment benefits have proven inadequate for the massive pool of long-term unemployed Americans displaced by this deep economic recession and sluggish follow through. With the unemployment rate last listed at 8.6%, though arguably closer to 8.8%, given the drop in workforce count in November, it is clearly not yet time to cut off the unemployment benefit extension program (which takes insured unemployment to 99 weeks). The House Republicans are seeking to pass legislation that will ease coverage to 59 weeks after January 1. Of course, the percentage level of the unemployed more importantly represents about 13.3 million Americans, not including the disenchanted and desperate. Furthermore, the Republican version of aid would reportedly leave more than 3 million Americans high and dry immediately, with no other source of income to make mortgage or rent payments, or basically to survive.

Believe it or not, that’s not where the disconnect ends. You see, Republicans also want to make it harder for those people, who would still qualify, to qualify for unemployment insurance benefits. This obstacle to the critical aid that pays the rent for many who are jobless through little fault of their own would present itself via mandatory drug tests. The argument posed on the floor of the House for this was “to ensure benefit recipients are employable,” because if they are on drugs then they are likely to lose their next job. In other words, they are deemed to have a more important problem that should be addressed first, before our fellow Americans are awarded the insurance benefits they paid for through regular cuts from their weekly pay checks. Don’t forget that we pay directly for unemployment insurance; it’s not an unfunded social program. Next, I suppose, Republicans would ask seniors to pass a drug test to determine whether they should receive their hard-earned social security checks. This is obscene!

However, that’s still not where the lunacy ends. The bill passed by House Republicans, which was doomed to fail in the Senate or by the President’s pen, also calls for the building of the Keystone XL Pipeline, which, oh by the way, I support. As you might have guessed though, that was not in last year’s legislation. Rather, it’s the effort of the GOP to stick an energy action into an employment bill under the premise that it is a job creator. Clearly, the construction of a pipeline would create jobs, whether the tens of thousands or the 100K to 280K long-term total touted by some in the Republican Party, or about 20,000 or so that is more likely immediately. But it is misplaced within this bill. In fact, each particle of this legislation should be independent of one another, for the purpose of clarity and the sake of the American people.

The President and the Democrats were terrified that the House Republicans would pass this bill and then leave town (before the Senate could pass its own version), thus leaving the onus of unemployment benefits on the shoulders of the President and his party. Americans wouldn’t remember the pipeline or the drug test if the Senate voted the bill down or if the President vetoed it as promised. Rather, they would remember that “the Democrats and President Obama killed a critical bill, and thus left unemployed Americans helpless while raising taxes on the rest of us.” So, the Democrats held up the 2012 budget through political means, threatening to shut down the government and probably incite a sovereign rating downgrade, “because the Republicans went home for the holidays and left the nation’s business undone.”

One thing remains clear. The nation’s capitol is still disjointed and has not learned the lesson it should have by the hands of Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP). We cannot afford to leave our fate now in the hands of Fitch or Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), who with S&P, have the power to drive paradigm shift in global confidence in American treasuries and the dollar. It’s about time the rhetoric ended in Washington and our elected representatives quit the political games and got some important work done. Break these bills apart and vote on them individually as they deserve, or at least resolve to form a best fit and get Americans what they need now. Remember, first do no harm!

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