Troubling Outlook for GLD

Investors in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which tracks the price of gold, closed out a tough week last week as gold prices fell against the rise of the dollar. Most of the GLD’s declines were born on Monday last week, when most of the dollar’s gains were captured. The remainder of the week mostly saw gold and the GLD meander against a similar trading pattern for the dollar. The catalyst for each was surprisingly not so much Greece, but rather it was driven by a renewed focus on the diverging paths of the U.S., European and Japanese central banks. Still, I believe there is an underlying and credible shadow of a Grexit hanging over gold now. This week presents more concern for SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) holders as a result, but long-term interests willing to bear near-term volatility should hold on.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

5-Day Chart of GLD at Seeking Alpha

The five-day chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) shows most of the week’s 2.2% loss came at the start of the period. However, a soft new level for the gold tracking ETF held through the remainder of the week as issues that weighed on gold persisted. The GLD even climbed into the close of trading for the week, on hope for a late Friday or weekend restoration for Greece. That appears unlikely now.

The catalyst for the decline in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) this week was clear. The start of the week produced some very hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Powell. His comments piled on to the tone of the close of the week before, when San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke of a September Fed rate hike. Governor Powell suggested two rate hikes would be appropriate this year, with the first coming in September. This set currency trading into motion, and refocused investors on the longer term issue for currencies, which also impacted the price of gold. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) dropped as a result.

The divergence of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policies has been the key driver for dollar appreciation against rival currencies over the past year or so. The Fed, of course, ended quantitative easing last year and is apparently planning for liftoff of the Fed Funds Rate sometime this year. Meanwhile, the ECB and BOJ have only just begun extraordinary easing measures. Furthermore, the ECB may have to go the extra mile soon should Greece drive severe disruption in Europe by defaulting on its debt payments and possibly dropping out of the eurozone. As a result, it was exactly the worst time for a Fed member to be speaking hawkishly and Powell excelled at just that last week.

1-Month Chart of the Dollar Index at Bloomberg

This chart of the dollar index shows the nascent gains of the dollar as it recovered some of its recently lost ground last week. The dollar looks poised to climb higher this week as Greece’s Prime Minister has set plans in motion for a referendum vote, to allow the people of Greece to decide if they will accept austerity in its latest form (best last offer from Eurogroup) or drop out of the eurozone and go back to the drachma. Given that leftists are rising to power in Spain and France, there is good reason to worry about which way Greece will go, as it may serve as a guide for the future of the euro.

As a result, we should see strong dollar strength this week, which weighs against gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). It’s difficult to assess an intrinsic value to gold, and thus the GLD, given that I believe it has important currency characteristics and is mankind’s default currency in my view. As a result, I believe it trades like currencies to some degree, and also like a commodity priced in dollars. So as the dollar appreciates in value, the price of gold should decline, just as the euro and oil should. Supports for the GLD look to be at the $110 level, and then to $105, which I believe would be reached if Greece does exit the eurozone. So the outlook for the GLD is not good near-term because of the issues discussed here. My long-term perspective for gold and the GLD remains the same though - hold gold and the GLD, as eventually I believe the dollar must give way to a developing world. Also, political and geopolitical instability and the perhaps someday regressing world call for the holding of mankind’s default currency long-term.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Euro Manipulation – I Feel So Dirty

The euro made a dramatic reversal that seemed to make very little sense Monday, and so I feel kind of dirty. The euro was down dramatically 1.9% versus the U.S. dollar in overnight overseas trading on obvious Greece concerns. Yet, by afternoon trading in the U.S., it was sharply higher versus the dollar. It was unnatural and had a lot to do with the actions of the European central banks plus a strangely timed news bit about Puerto Rico. I feel like my money has been touched inappropriately. See my report on euro manipulation. Article interests CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN), ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO).

Disclosure: I'm long EUO and short UUP as a hedge and play on volatility. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why 3 Terrorist Attacks Were a Non-Starter for Gold

Last Friday, 3 horrible terrorism events occurred overseas. Yet, gold prices hardly budged on the frightening events or on the warning of U.S. Homeland Security to be on guard through the July 4th American holiday. This defies the popular logic of many gold investors, since gold is seen as the last stop on the safe haven train. So why do you think gold prices hardly budged? See our report on gold and terrorism here.

Precious Metals Relative Securities	Friday’s % Change
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.1%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-0.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-0.4%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	-0.2%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bullish 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-1.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bearish 3X (NYSE: DUST)	+1.2%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-0.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Full Catastrophe

In the words of the great fictional character of Greek fame, Zorbas, it’s “the full catastrophe.” Ironically, when Zorbas made that reference in regards to his marriage, he had no idea that his beloved Greece would also wed into the full catastrophe with the Eurogroup someday. Friends, in the week ahead nothing will matter more to global investors than the developments in Athens. In fact, a global stock market correction is possible. The Spanish leftists have not yet begun to protest; the Italians have not yet organized. When they do begin to show their opportunistic politically motivated support for Greece, and they will, things will get worse before they get better. That goes for the euro, European debt and equity markets and global stability, which rubs off over here. See my stock market report here.

Sector Security	YTD
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+3.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+1.8%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+6.6%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+7.5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+3.8%
iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV)	+9.8%
Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK)	-14.3%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)	+9.2%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-1.3%
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE)	-7.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Could Go Lower

Like when a storm threatens a city, gold is on storm watch near-term. The dollar strength expressed Tuesday in the market should continue in the very near-term. It has been birthed by the hawkish discussions of two Fed members and the reinforcement of Goldman Sachs’ (NYSE: GS) forecast for further dollar strengthening in 2015. If that path continues gold should fall further. But the most immediate threat is related to Greece risk and the potential severe disruption that a Graccident could cause. See more on gold here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK)), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG)..

Does Greece Really Matter to U.S. Investors?

The answer is, well kind of. What matters to American investors are the factors affecting the American economy, U.S. industries and individual companies. External foreign issues can affect the U.S. economy, industries and companies, and in that way affect American investments and investor wealth. The Greece issue matters mostly because it could reverberate across the periphery of Europe. If Greece’s discontent carries over to Spain, Portugal or Italy, then it should affect the value of the euro in relation to the dollar; that has far reaching effects. Also, there’s risk in a Greek default because we do not know who owns Greek debt, which would go largely uncollected should the Greeks hit the reset button. Might the holders include American banks or important financial institutions overseas, and to what extent might it matter? Finally, fear alone, whether substantiated or not, could start a global stock market selloff; we have seen U.S. index futures taking the lead from Europe over the last several weeks on this intensifying Greece problem. That is not a good sign. See why Greece matters to U.S. investors.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Why ISIS’s New Currency Will Outlast the U.S. Dollar

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), known to us as ISIS, has reportedly developed its own currency. Normally, you would expect the currency of a criminal and murderous state which is opposed by most of the civilized world, to be worthless. However, ISIS’s new currency is at least as viable as the dollar and could even outlast it; that is because it’s made of gold and silver.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

ISIS seems to have developed a viable currency. Syrian activists recently shared these images of the new currency via social media, but ISIS warned the world it was coming in November. It will be known as the “Islamic dinar” to its tragically misguided followers and perhaps morbid coin collectors. To the rest of us, it’ll be known as gold, silver and copper, and it will carry the relative and respected value of those precious metals (melted down of course).

ISIS is reportedly going to have two gold coins, three silver coins and two copper coins. It’s part of the group’s effort to establish and embed itself as a real bona fide nation. The coin is being modeled after an ancient dinar used during the Caliphate of the Uthman in 634 CE. ISIS cannot trade with dollars or euro, obviously, given its opposition to western civilization. It would not want to justify the civil order that its evil guides seek to displace. Who would believe the dollars weren’t counterfeit anyway? Gold is gold and silver is silver, no matter how bloody the money, and even ISIS should be able to trade with it. The coin shown in the image here is reportedly worth $139, determined by its weight in gold not its place of origin or any central bank manipulation.

How can this golden dinar outlast the dollar? Fiat currency like the dollar is basically given its value based on the viability of the country backing it. It’s a market determined relative value versus other currencies. It’s based on many factors including supply and demand, inflation, the credibility of the country issuing it, and the outlook for that nation’s economy and sovereignty; and some would say the manipulative efforts of its central bank.

The dollar is so strong today because the U.S. economy is the world’s most developed and the U.S. government is the world’s most stable. For as long as America goes unchallenged atop the world, the dollar will remain the strongest fiat currency. And since it is a relative value, it benefits today from weakness in other areas of the world.

However, as the world develops, the dollar must give way to it. Stagnant economies like Japan are still losing ground to the dollar, and the euro has its troubles today, but the development of the world has affected the dollar in a profound manner. In my view, it is the fate of the dollar to weaken over time, and the result of global development. As the rest of the world works its way to an even playing field with America, its currencies will gain ground against the dollar as well. Now, this may be decades or a century in coming, as the world’s governments continue to evolve from monarchies, dictatorships and other forms of inefficient managers of economic growth, but it should eventually come, in theory. I say in theory because before it comes, other disruptions are somewhat probable and could undermine fiat currency across the globe. You know what threats I speak of: war (most likely), global warming, asteroids from space, etc.

In such scenarios where the backing of an economy and government isn’t quite as important or even worth anything at all, what will mankind use to trade in goods and services? It will use a barter system, and in the place of goods, gold as a proxy. So, therefore, ISIS’ new currency could outlast even the all-powerful and supreme U.S. dollar. It was a no brainer for the caliphate wanna-be, and gold should be a no brainer for you and me as well for the same reason. Gold is mankind’s default currency, period.

In today’s society, where we expect everything to stay the same and we won’t allow ourselves to foresee risk of change, gold is influenced by many factors. It retains, however, currency value as evidenced by ISIS of all peoples. Gold is therefore a must own in every portfolio for the long-term. And investors today can own derivatives of gold and silver as well, via the shares of gold miners like Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), and ETFs like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), and leveraged plays for short short-term bets or hedges like the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: NUGT). Nevertheless, there is no perfect replacement for real physical gold for the long-term holder, as evidenced by ISIS’s ability to trade with it. I cover gold and currency regularly and welcome readers to also follow my blog at Wall Street Greek and column at Seeking Alpha.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA).

Another Fed Hawk Soils Stock Rally Durability

Last week, San Francisco Fed President Williams said “the rest of the year will be interesting” and that he was inclined to raise rates twice this year. That implied the Fed would liftoff with rate hikes starting in September. Today, Fed Governor Powell indicated the chances for liftoff were 50/50 for September, and that he would hike in September and in December. Friends, your long awaited Greece resolution-driven rally should be short-lived here as focus turns back to the Fed before long. See more on the Fed hawk's impact on stocks. Article interests Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Oh No He Didn’t?! – Fed-Man is Talking Trash

Stocks got a reprieve last week thanks to an FOMC dot-plot indicating a lower and later Fed Funds Rate hike timeline. But it’s time for a reality check. The Fed is going to raise rates this year, and it very well might do it twice before Christmas. So, the celebration expressed in stocks should be short-lived as investors reevaluate the Fed forecast. Fed members are making speaking engagements now that the FOMC meeting quiet period is over, and what some are saying is unsavory for stocks. So, while we may enjoy some upside near-term, it looks like investors will be wise to second guess by mid-August. See more on the Fed speaker stirring concern. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), iPath S&P VIX (NYSE: VXX), Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Investors – The Fed is NOT Your Friend

Listen up gold investors! Our best friend of the last decade, the U.S. Federal Reserve, has abandoned us. I suggest investors ignore the gains in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) that followed the FOMC meeting. The interpretation of the FOMC Monetary Policy Statement and Fed plans is confused friends. The Fed’s free money days are over and tightening policy is assured this year, so these nostalgic trades reminiscent of the good old days are misplaced and will not last. Though the dollar appears extended on a long-term basis, it can hold or strengthen further on a short and medium term basis, meaning gold likely weakens again. See more about gold and the Fed here. Article also interests iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vectors Jr. Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX). 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Feeling Around the Fed

Stocks have been hemming and hedging for quite some time heading into today’s announcement from the Federal Reserve. So, for some time now I’ve been anticipating (internally here) a potential breakout on the relieving news of no June rate action, especially given the distance between today and September. However, I’m now worried that any rally could be cut short due to what the Fed indicates through its economic forecasts and the famed dot-plot indicating its expectations for the Fed Funds Rate. That data along with the usually controlled and consoling press conference of the Fed Chair could still raise some question about the possibility of an earlier action. And then there is Greece and relative European and global financial market repercussions, which seems to continue to cap hope for stocks for as long as it remains in play. Because of the uncertainty that exists around these issues and the possibility that it may linger after the Fed release, bets placed ahead of this event are probably not wise in either direction. Moves in stocks today could be altered by later news out of Europe, U.S. economic data and the pending parade of Fed member speaking engagements that follows every FOMC announcement. See my report on the Fed announcement here.

Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), SPDR Dow (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Bank of America – Why a BAC Breakout Happens on Lending Growth

May Motor Vehicle Sales offered fantastic evidence of robust business activity for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). That fact is not just because the bank does a good deal of auto lending generally, but because it implies banks and BAC are lending more freely now after meeting the Fed’s raised capital requirements. While the interest rate outlook is certainly a support for the banks, this driver of lending activity will serve the top and bottom lines in an important manner. Thus, Bank of America remains of one my favorite long ideas. See the report on BAC here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

ISIS & Terrorism Risk – It's Time to Think About This

Tuesday a White House press conference was stopped while the Secret Service responded to a bomb threat. Earlier in the same day, part of Capitol Hill was evacuated during a Congressional hearing. The events follow other recent scares, but besides the Boston Marathon bombing nothing really catastrophic has happened. However, a very serious threat has been made against America this year by the Islamic State and it warns of attacks over the next six months. Are we overreacting to these called in threats or are investors ignorantly ignoring it all? Given our porous borders and the malintent of America’s organized enemies, maybe we should have some protection in place for portfolios. See the report on ISIS here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), ADT Corporation (NYSE: ADT), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BCRX), TASER International (Nasdaq: TASR), American Science & Engineering (Nasdaq: ASEI), Cabela’s (NYSE: CAB), Matthews International (Nasdaq: MATW).
 
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

A Storm is Forming Against Stocks

Two critical factors appear to be colliding to form a perfect storm against stocks this week. The Federal Reserve has its first monetary policy meeting through which it could actually raise interest rates, marking the first such move since 2006. Concern about near-term action, whether in June or soon thereafter, weighs against stocks. I expect concern will be intensified due to the Fed’s projections to be released at this meeting and possibly through Janet Yellen’s post release press conference. Meanwhile, the issue that has haunted us since Syriza was elected into power in Greece, the potential disruptive exit of Greece from the eurozone, hurls global markets into the fire this week and probably through month’s end as the midnight hour nears. See the report on stocks here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM), Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VGK). 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold – Big Trouble this Weeek

Expect a tumultuous week ahead for gold and silver. The FOMC meeting and the intensification of the Greece issue will drive increasing volatility in the currency markets and in turn drive severe swings in gold prices. I expect gold to drop sharply on the dollar index’s retracing of prior highs. Trading in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) last week was in tune with recent volatility, but this week’s trading in gold and silver relative securities should be even more exaggerated. Two significant issues including two key events should offer fuel for the dollar, and in turn discount the price of gold in dollar terms. The two issues are not uncommon to us, but there will be a special focus on them this week and appropriate intensification of relative volatility. See the report on gold here. Article interests Market Vector Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vector Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Merkel vs. Obama - A Game of He Said She Said

Last week, a rumor supposedly leaked from a French government representative indicated President Obama said that the current strength of the dollar was problematic. The dollar weakened on the news, which would serve the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to begin its monetary tightening plans; that in turn serves the economy long-term. The President had to deny ever saying it, given its unpatriotic connotations, but I’m sure many market players still believe he said it; and it has impacted the dollar in my view. This morning in Germany, it seems the German Chancellor fired a salvo back onto the currency battlefield. Angela Merkel said a strong euro was not a good thing for nations on the periphery of the eurozone economy. In speaking on the euro and in sharing her indicated preference for current weakness, the dollar recovered some of that previously lost ground and the battle was balanced again in the stealth currency war between trading partners. Though working now into the late Friday afternoon, the dollar is back near where it started the day. See my report He Said She Said. Article interests ProShares Ultra Short Euro (NYSE: EUO), CurrencyShares Euro (NYSE: FXE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares US Dollar Bear (NYSE: UDN). 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Buy Gold Lie

In a market report published today I discussed a series of erroneous news leaks that have misled financial markets recently around the dollar/euro trade. The same issues have influenced the price of gold in dollar terms. Thus, the case for gold made recently by the bid is based on false promises and should correct. See my report on gold here. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Obama's Dollar Diss & EU Market Manipulation

In the wee hours of a solemn Monday morning as I scribbled my thoughts for followers, sometime around 4 AM EDT, I noted a sharp drop in the dollar index. As I scrambled to figure out what had happened to cause the counterintuitive decline, I found what stank of European desperation. In fact, I noted that a series of public statements over the past couple trading days had illustrated that the Europeans are desperate to prop up the euro against a strengthening dollar. As Greece appears headed for a nightmarish scenario for the eurozone, it shows just how concerning the situation really is. However, no matter how much noise is mixed into the trading, the key catalyst for dollar gains remains and it will drive the dollar higher. See my report on the dollar here. Article interests PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE), ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) and iShares Euro ETF (NYSE: EURS).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Market Crash Coming

Early last week it looked as though gold had good enough footing thanks to a very positive tone to the Greece discussions and weak U.S. economic data. However, things changed dramatically for gold last week thanks to two key developments. A failed European effort to resolve the Greece situation and a poor outlook for the effort this month should severely harm the euro versus the dollar. Meanwhile, economic vigor evidenced by the monthly jobs report on Friday should renew debate about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in June. Each of these two events should serve the dollar versus the euro, and a severely strengthening dollar could crush gold. See my gold report here. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Chaos Theory in Today’s Market

A series of events late last week seem to have reintroduced a chaotic perspective for June. I expect the developments will shortly reignite fear if not introduce terror. The two chaotic catalysts are not new to us, but fear of a fast Fed rate hike and a Greek departure from the eurozone are scarier than ever. Investors who may have been worried about the virility of the U.S. economy received a different message Friday. It was the sort of message that might not mix well with recent signs of inflation. We got a very hot jobs figure to allay our concerns about a slowdown; but in return we now have a building sense of fear of a June Fed rate hike. Adding fuel to the flames, just when you all thought Greece and its supposed allies were coming to accord, the situation unraveled. The Greeks have smartly delayed their IMF payment due last week and brazenly rejected the seemingly best offer of their eurozone masters. Meanwhile, Greece is again courting an unholy alliance with Russia to show the west it has other options besides decades of depression and discord. So now we have two very worrisome issues to trouble us for most of this month, with each due to come to a head in the coming weeks. Fear has been reignited dear friends – so take heed. See my market report here. Article interests SPDR Dow (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), Vanguard Total Market (NYSE: VGK), iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Energy Sector Layoffs are Over

Evidence in data reported today seems to show the market free of a heavy burden. Announced corporate layoffs decreased in May from a much higher level in April. The data seems to indicate the damage to the energy industry and its ripples through various economies due to the sharp decrease in energy prices of the past year may finally be coming to an end. If my reading of the situation is correct, it would mark relief from a heavy burden on the overall economy and stocks. See my report on the energy sector. Article interests United States Oil (NYSE: USO), iPath S&P GSCI Oil (NYSE: OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE), SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&Ps (NYSE: XOP) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Dollar Dazed but NOT Knocked Out

The dollar was dazed recently, knocked down by economic data from Europe. Then it got a second kick in the head last Wednesday when rumors of a more conciliatory EU drove speculation for an impending deal with Greece. The move might have some traders confused given that Greece recently seemed headed toward panic; you might have expected the euro to be expressing as much. I think aggressive investors can look past the last couple days’ action and for a dollar rebound near-term. I suspect Greece will not take the first offer while stubbornly holding to demands. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data due Friday might revive concern about the Fed and its rate hike plans. Over the longer term, I do expect the dollar to drift lower, but not until after another push upward. See my report on the dollar here. Article interests Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (NYSE: UDN) and iShares Euro ETF (NYSE: EURS).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold, Euro & the Dollar – What’s Next

Gold found some support early this month thanks to worrisome U.S. economic data. The precious metal gained currency against the dollar as questions were raised about the direction of the economy. While the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) was still down for the week thanks to a poor opening to the period on renewed concern about Greece and the euro, economic concern proved an important counterweight. This week presents the likelihood for more of the same mix, so expect volatility. Whichever is weakest, the euro or the dollar, will determine the path for gold. See my article on gold & the dollar here. Article interests PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE) and ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

REAL ESTATE – Mortgage Activity is NOT Down

If I have taught you anything about real estate it's this: Do not to take mortgage data too seriously around 3-day holiday weekends. With regard to the last two weeks’ data, I suggest real estate enthusiasts simply ignore the application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data regularly shows wild swings around holidays because of some imperfections with the seasonal adjustment process. See my real estate report here. Article interests iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR), SPDR Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greece is the Boy Who Cried Wolf

"We are very near an agreement" is something Greece's PM said on Wednesday and his finance minister has repeatedly stated. Yet, like a geometric shape that approaches its axis but never reaches it, no deal has ever resulted. Still, for some reason the global markets believed the smiling PM as he once again assured his own populace and everyone else who was listening that we're almost there. I've come to realize that much of what is behind this banter is political in nature, as back home the new government has been under the high heat since its entry into office. Every political party Greece now has to offer, with many now seeking to replace the crisis crippled PASOK and New Democracy parties, is blaming Syriza for completing the job Greece's old guard began. Syriza's head, Alexis Tsipras, has to present a positive and strong image to a nation that might be having second thoughts about their decision to elect him. In the end, no matter how many times Greece cries wolf, though, it will eventually have to slay the monster or be devoured by it. This game cannot go on forever, because Greece is about to run out of money. See the report on Greece. National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK), Piraeus Bank (OTC: BPIRY).

Disclosure: Kaminis is short NBG. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Dollar Resurgence – How to Capture Greenback Gains

The dollar's resurgence of the past week has momentum and is built on substance. Since marking a recent bottom in mid-May, the dollar index spot exchange rate has increased over 4% into May 26 trading. I believe the move was ignited by renewed concern about the euro due to an intensification of concern about Greece. It has been supported by other recent events about the dollar and euro, but it is the Greece issue that I believe gives the move substance and momentum. If you agree, you might use the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP) to hedge against any relative risk or to capture the activity, and/or derivatives of the UUP to speculatively capitalize on the move. See the report on the dollar.

Disclosure: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.