Boy that was a Bad Day for CNBC

The initial reaction of the media and investors to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Statement astounded me. Stocks moved lower and the dollar appreciated meaningfully on a broad expression of trepidation about a perceived risk of a December rate action. Given that the December meeting is two months away, I believe investors would be better served focusing their attention on what the Fed actually did this week versus what it might do two months from now. Or, we might even consider the reasons why the Fed acted cautiously. As the hours and days pass and as Fed members make speaking engagements next week, I expect we will come to understand the most meaningful take-away from the FOMC meeting was that the central bank did not act to raise interest rates. I believe the Fed held back this month because of the latest data and the threat of further European Central Bank (ECB) easing. On net, I see the Fed’s statement as a positive, because I do not expect our economy to dip into recession, but that is something we should be considering as well. See my report at Seeking Alpha on stocks here.

Due to what I perceived as an exaggerated reading of the FOMC statement Wednesday and knee-jerk market reaction, we got a quick note out to our Twitter followers advising that the initial drop in stocks should reverse and that stocks would rise into the close Wednesday, which they did. My Twitter tweet to followers:

Don't get lost in CNBC noise - This was a DOVISH statement-Fed did NOT act. We rally into close and reverse initial trade $SPY $QQQ #Fed

— Markos Kaminis (@WallStreetGreek) October 28, 2015

Sector Security	Wednesday’s Activity
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	+0.8%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.8%
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+1.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+1.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+2.9%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Prices will Swing Higher as Fed’s Hands are Tied

Gold prices should appreciate from here. Gold prices have been burdened by the strengthening dollar for the past couple years. The dollar was supported again last week thanks to extraordinary language from the European Central Bank (ECB), but gold hardly budged while oil prices plunged. The reason appeared to be due to expectations about the Fed policy decision this week, or rather its likely indecision. The Fed will probably not raise interest rates this week, given recently soft U.S. economic indications and the strong position of the ECB in the opposite direction. The notable risk to gold buyers here is that the Fed stubbornly acts to raise rates this week, but that possibility has decreased thanks to the latest data. Click through here for the full report on gold prices and the Fed. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ), Direxion Daily Gold Miner Bullish (NYSE: NUGT), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bearish (NYSE: DUST), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stocks – Apple, the Fed & Volkswagen Weigh

While it would normally be naive to peg market action to any one factor week to week, it is true that nothing matters this week more than the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its resulting Monetary Policy Statement. The greatest significance of corporate earnings reports and economic data now is all tied to how the news might sway the Fed’s view of the economy and thus impact its monetary policy decision. For as long as the data is questionable enough to keep the Fed on hold until the global scenery improves, stocks can continue to appreciate. Stocks have gained to-date in October on the decreasing likelihood of October Fed rate action, and so the pivotal Fed policy event this Wednesday will dictate whether equities rise higher or whether the rug is pulled out from under the October recovery of shares. I anticipate the Fed will have to stay on hold, given the latest softened jobs and manufacturing data, and also the pressure provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) last week. Article interests Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY), Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI). See the full report on stocks here.

Market Sector Security	October Through 10/23/15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+8.3%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+8.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+10.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+6.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Rally Gets Corporate Support

Stocks have been rallying earnestly since the turn of the month, and yesterday morning I said we are about to see the next push higher thanks to Fed inaction. Today that push got another leg of support from strong earnings reports by market leaders. The earnings of major index participants Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Alphabet (formerly Google) (Nasdaq: GOOG, Nasdaq: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) will give this rally strong support Friday. Investors should have liquidated their volatility hedges long ago on my guidance and been long since late September. Next week’s Fed push should provide the final release for stocks to climb even higher through November. See the full report on the stock market rally here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why Stocks Will Push Even Higher

As we near another Federal Reserve push-forward of rate action, stocks are poised to push higher. Given the inclination of the American investment machine to put capital to use in equities and the recent reloading of institutional investor capital flow gun barrels, investor appetite is primed. All we need now is a turn in China or otherwise fueled U.S. economic growth; or perhaps a little helping hand from the Fed again to give stocks that old lift they recently lost. I’m expecting the Fed to push their first rate hike forward again when they meet next week. I anticipate the market will look past any economic warning signal some pundits will surely read into Fed inaction. Rather, Fed inaction will be seen as simply a temporary and sensible maneuver to hold us over until the economic environment is more certain. While various risks remain, and black swans linger, I anticipate stocks will push their way higher, and see the S&P 500 Index (NYSE: SPY) moving to 2080 or higher in the near-term and toward its high watermark by late November. See more on why stocks are poised to push higher here.

Sector Security	Gains in October to 10/21/15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+5.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+5.6%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+5.7%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+4.1%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+5.0%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Amazon Gains from Wal-Mart’s Shame

Amazon.com is gaining as e-commerce continues to steal share

• Amazon.com shares have led stocks in recovery this fall and for good reason. 
• Consumer sentiment and spending data indicate Americans are still sanguine about shopping.
• Yet, Wal-Mart’s (NYSE: WMT) recent forecast changes show the nation’s leading brick-and-mortar discount retailer is in need of renovation. 
• Amazon looks to be to blame for that, as the most recent quarterly e-commerce data showed internet retailers are still stealing market share from brick and mortar stores.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) reports its earnings after the market close on Thursday October 22nd. Given the volatility of stocks since mid-August, and the market-moving report of one major retailer last week, there might be some trepidation around the stock’s future. But rest assured dear holders of AMZN, as the rise in the shares of the leading e-commerce player to their 52-week high looks warranted.

3-Month Charts of AMZN & QQQ at Seeking Alpha

Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) shares have marked their 52-week high in recent trading and have led the broader market in its recovery since the mid-August mayhem and September swoon seen in the charts above. You can see that the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), which tracks the NASDAQ-100, has yet to fully recover and the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is lagging even further behind. AMZN’s superior performance is explainable.

First of all, American consumer sentiment rates solidly and consumer spending is growing robustly in the U.S. While Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) just shared disappointing news about its outlook, Amazon is actually partly to blame for that. The latest e-commerce sales data shows that internet retailers continue to steal market share from brick and mortar stores, and Amazon is the dominant player on the internet and generally speaking in retail these days.

Let’s Look at the Consumer
The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (reported last Friday) improved 4.9 points from the close of September to its mid-October reading at 92.1. The current conditions component, which is the best take of how consumers feel today, jumped over 5.5 points to 106.7. Investors weary due to the latest monthly Employment Situation data should find solace in this news, as it is impacted by short-term changes in the labor market. Thus, it implies the job market data for October may be improved over September. However you look at it, this is good news for Amazon.com. The expectations component of this consumer measure was likewise improved, rising 4.5 points to 82.7.

According to the report and economists, this level of sentiment translates into roughly 4% annualized consumer spending growth. The improvement in sentiment likely reflects the improvement in the stock market, where a great deal of American wealth is stored, and also on low gasoline prices. When last measured, personal spending showed solid 0.4% growth in August, month-to-month, matching the same gain for July. So, thus far, despite the issues overseas and in the U.S. domestic energy sector, Americans are still spending and have an improving appetite for it. It’s all good news for America’s dominant e-commerce discounter.

Wal-Mart’s Woes
Some (especially WMT holders) expressed consternation when America’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) reported distressing guidance last week. The company’s shares plummeted when it revised lower its fiscal 2017 (Jan.) operating forecasts due to planned increases in staffing and wages. And it said one more thing: Wal-Mart indicated it would be investing heavily in e-commerce.

5-Day Charts of WMT and AMZN at Seeking Alpha

As you can see via the charts here, the news that Wal-Mart would be beefing up its e-commerce effort hardly frightened AMZN holders. While, AMZN did slide in concert with WMT, it was hardly a meaningful amount and lasted less than a day. That is because Wal-Mart’s news said more about what Amazon is doing right than about what Wal-Mart is hoping will help it compete better.

Ecommerce is Still Stealing Share
E-commerce sales continue to grow at a healthy pace. The good news you already knew about e-commerce was repeated in August by the U.S. Census Bureau, which published its Quarterly E-Commerce Report (pdf format). Amazon.com is the nation’s leading internet e-commerce player by far, and so the data is clearly relevant to it.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail e-commerce sales increased 4.2% in the second quarter of 2015 against the immediately preceding period. That is rapid growth for an entire industry to manage, and it is an industry that has now been around for awhile. Total retail sales only managed 1.6% growth for the same period, and that figure was significantly lifted by the e-commerce portion headed by Amazon. Against the prior year period, e-commerce sales soared 14.1% while total retail sales increased 1.0% for the same period. And more bad news for Wal-Mart and good news for Amazon.com is that e-commerce sales still only account for just 7.2% of total sales. The segment accounted for just 6.3% in last year’s quarter, so it is gaining fast. Yet, the low percentage of total sales still implies that e-commerce growth and market share gains will continue for the foreseeable future.

With room to grow, Amazon, the dominant player in the e-commerce segment, stands to keep stealing share from the likes of Wal-Mart. So, given the good news about the consumer and the good news about e-commerce, we are looking forward to Amazon’s future.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Irresponsible Journalists Misread the China Trade Data - It's Fantastic News

When the China trade data was first reported last evening in China Yuan currency denominated terms, China shares showed little reaction, if not a positive bias considering the prior day’s sharp gains. Yet, before sunrise in the U.S. this morning, and given the headlines I’ve read so far, equity index futures were indicating today’s lower open in the U.S. That should not be the case, given that the news out of China was actually somewhat positive. If the market softness continues to exist after the open, I’m suggesting investors take advantage of what I see as erroneous softness in stocks and buy equities. Coming soon, this week’s inflation indication from CPI data should be soft (another positive), giving the U.S. Federal Reserve absolutely no reason to move rates in October considering all issues. China is stabilizing and emerging markets will mend before long with rising commodity prices. Equities should be headed toward old highs now and the S&P 500 Index to 2050 to 2080 near term, and over 2100 after the October Fed meeting (I expect no rate action). See my full China Trade Report here. 

Asian Indices	10-13-15	Investible Via
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300	-0.1%	Direxion Dly CSI 300 2X (NYSE: CHAU) – levered
Hang Seng	-0.6%	iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI) – HK traded
Nikkei 225	-1.1%	iShares MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWJ)
KOSPI (S. Korea)	-0.1%	iShares MSCI S. Korea (NYSE: EWY)
S&P BSE SENSEX (India)	-0.2%	iShares India 50 (Nasdaq: INDY)
S&P ASX 200 (Australia)	-0.6%	iShares MSCI Australia (NYSE: EWA)
Broad Asia		iShares MSCI Asia ex-Japan (Nasdaq: AAXJ)

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Loaded Guns are Dangerous - A Lesson About Capital Flows

Since the turn of the month, stocks have enjoyed a renewed energy. Yet, we have not seen a positive turn in the economic outlook or heard good news on the corporate earnings front. The gains have been unrelated to any improvement in energy sector dynamics, and the world is not at peace. There seems hardly any good reason for the gains. There is some evidence stocks have benefited from a more dovish assumption about the Fed’s plans. However, I believe the gains this month have been mostly due to a shift in institutional investment perspective. Since the turn of the month, and more importantly the fiscal year for many institutional fund managers, I believe capital is flowing back into investments. In other words, many money managers are again wielding loaded guns as they set forth with a blank performance slate for the new fiscal year. Unfortunately, though, loaded guns can be dangerous if wielded recklessly and they can do a lot of damage to others and to the gunslingers. See the full article on institutional capital flow power for stocks.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), CIT (NYSE: CIT), Bank United (NYSE: BKU), First Citizens (OTC: FCNCA.PK), Synovus (NYSE: SNV), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Hampton Roads Bankshares (Nasdaq: HMPR), WesBanco (Nasdaq: WSBC), City Holding (Nasdaq: CHCO), Sandy Spring (Nasdaq: SASR), First Citizens (OTC: FCBN.OB), SCBT Financial (Nasdaq: SCBT), Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), WSFS Financial (Nasdaq: WSFS), Southside Bancshares (Nasdaq: SBSI), Stellar One (Nasdaq: STEL), Union First Market (Nasdaq: UBSH), Eagle Bancorp (Nasdaq: EGBN), First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FBNC), Ameris (Nasdaq: ABCB), The Bancorp (Nasdaq: TBBK), First Community (Nasdaq: FCBC), Capital City (Nasdaq: CCBG), Financial Institutions (Nasdaq: FISI), National Bankshares (Nasdaq: NKSH), Citizens & Northern (Nasdaq: CZNC), Charter Financial (Nasdaq: CHFN), Seacoast Banking (Nasdaq: SBCF), TIB Financial (Nasdaq: TIBB), American National (Nasdaq: AMNB), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBI), Middleburg Financial (Nasdaq: MBRG), Heritage Financial (Nasdaq: HBOS), Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq: ZION), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), City National (NYSE: CYN), Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH), SVB Financial (Nasdaq: SIVB), Westamerica (Nasdaq: WABC), Cathay General (Nasdaq: CATY), Umpqua (Nasdaq: UMPQ), Glacier Bancorp (Nasdaq: GBCI), Pacific Capital (Nasdaq: PCBC), PacWest (Nasdaq: PACW), Western Alliance (NYSE: WAL), First National Alaska (OTC: FBAK.OB), First Interstate Bancsystem (Nasdaq: FIBK), Nara (Nasdaq: NARA), West Coast (Nasdaq: WCBO), TriCo (Nasdaq: TCBK), Territorial (Nasdaq: TBNK), Washington Banking (Nasdaq: WCBO), Bank of Marin (Nasdaq: BMRC), Hanmi (Nasdaq: HAFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), MB Financial (Nasdaq: MBFI), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), First Niagra (Nasdaq: FNFG), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Investor’s Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Northwest Bankshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Provident (NYSE: PFS), Colombia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Kearny (Nasdaq: KRNY), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Danvers (Nasdaq: DNBK).

What Just Happened to Bank of America (BAC)!?!

Shareholders of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) were likely stricken with financial whiplash last week. Many of you may be wondering why the wild swing in your BAC shares, which exaggerated a similar move for the broader market. Let me lay out the reason for you, because it’s likely to come back into play again. I continue to favor the bank for the long-term. See my full report on BAC here. 

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Export Decline - Fed Crack Addicts Can't Get Enough

Key economic data, the International Trade Report for the month of August, showed a severe drop in exports this week. Does this mean the economic impact of China, the emerging markets, and maybe Europe, is worse than traders hooked on hope for a Fed-rate action need it to be? Are we in danger of entering recession, which would change the game altogether and send stocks into a bear market? This is something we need to be considering, despite my own inclination to buy on the Fed indication. See the full report on the decline in exports here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

Stocks Could Fall 5% if Fed’s Williams Says the Wrong Thing Today

When San Francisco Fed President John Williams gives his speech on the economic outlook at a luncheon in San Francisco today, he’s likely to plant seeds of doubt in the nascent stock rally. As recently as October 1st, Williams was still saying the Fed needed to act this year, even after the weak data on manufacturing was released but before the news about jobs. Today he gets his first chance to speak since the jobs release, and he might not change his tune. That is because Williams wants to act on rates ahead of the perfect moment, to prevent financial imbalances before they occur. If his opinion is shared by the majority of voting FOMC members, than anything is still possible for October, though I do not want to imagine the rout in stocks that would follow an October rate hike. The rally that has been underway since the middle of last week might face a seed of doubt in its Fed presumption today. Thus, stocks could give way a bit, but if Williams changes his tune, the rally has the all-clear. See my full report on stocks and the Fed's Williams here. 

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold has a Tragic Flaw to Overcome

Some investors are wondering today why gold isn’t doing better given the latest troubling economic data. Poor economic data should serve to take away the risk of Federal Reserve rate action. That works against nascent dollar support and for gold. Likewise, weak economic results reduce expectations for the U.S. economy and the dollar, again serving gold. There was one tragic flaw in what was otherwise supportive data for gold last week; it included information about disinflationary pressure. If the dollar cost of goods and services have disinflationary pressure then the dollar could go further in buying gold as well. Don’t fret though; this issue looks to be transitory and inflation may soon serve gold if I’m right. There are signs of it, and other supports are setting up as well, so I expect we will overcome this tragic flaw. See more of this report on gold here.

Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Week Ahead – Clash of Greed vs. Fear

In the week ahead, expect to see a clash of factors affecting stocks. After a difficult data period last week, we will get a fresh look at the relatively strong service sector of the American economy. That should revive concern about the Federal Reserve’s rate plans for October, as should the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes. Finally, a volatile earnings season kicks off with the report of a prominent basic materials player that is dealing with a blow to commodity prices. Greed is back with the turn of the fiscal year for many institutional fund managers, but fear has not gone either, so expect a clash. See our week ahead report.

Security Sectors	Friday 10-02-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+1.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+1.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+1.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+1.5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+1.5%
WisdomTree Hedged Equity Europe (NYSE: HEDJ)	+1.4%
iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX)	-5.2%
iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond (NYSE: TLT)	+0.6%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+2.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+1.3%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Global Economic Meltdown?

Investors enthused by yesterday’s gains in stocks ran up against a dose of reality today. Economic data last evening from China presented the usual watermark testing lows that helped to get stocks into this mess in the first place. This morning, fresh data on the manufacturing sectors of Japan, the Eurozone and the U.S. compounded the pain. Stocks still gained in Asia overnight, but they were simply following our lead after yesterday’s relief rally here at home. In Europe, stocks started to surge today as well but turned down intraday. By the 10:00 AM EDT release of U.S. manufacturing data, it was clear investors would be second guessing their fresh bets from Wednesday. Are we in a global economic meltdown?

International Share Sectors	10-01-15
iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan (Nasdaq: AAXJ)	-0.1%
iShares MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWJ)	+0.1%
iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI)	-0.1%
iShares Europe ETF (NYSE: IEV)	-0.6%
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK)	-0.8%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)	-1.6%
iShares MSCI United Kingdom (NYSE: EWU)	-0.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Should we be Worried about the Deep Drop of Chicago PMI into Contraction Territory?

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its Chicago PMI data and it was troubling. The index of regional manufacturing fell to a level indicative of economic contraction. It’s not the first time this year for an underwater result, though we note that the economy has grown generally despite softness in this data point. Still, the depth of decline in September raises a specter of doubt about the impact of the China slowdown, European issues and U.S. energy sector woes on our economy. Whatever the cause, there may be reason for concern about the American economy, though we may have to wait for another month or two of data to determine whether that is true or not. Even so, more data is due Thursday on the American and Chinese economies that could confirm concerns and alter the path of stocks from Wednesday’s appreciation to something else. See the report analyzing Chicago PMI here.

Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

What does the Sudden Drop in Mortgage Activity mean for Real Estate?

Mortgage applications declined sharply in the just reported period. Given what’s going on today in financial markets, and some recently poor signs in other housing data, I thought we should examine and discuss whether this is a warning sign for real estate or not. In the end, a simple explanation looks like the culprit behind the decline, and it is not one that worries me about real estate moving forward. See the report on mortgage applications and what the dip means. 

Real Estate Relative Shares	09-30-15 Intraday
iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)	+0.4%
MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG)	+0.1%
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)	+0.4%
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB)	+0.8%
PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM)	-0.3%
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI)	+0.6%
Ryland (NYSE: RYL)	-1.9%
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL)	+0.03%
Lennar (NYSE: LEN)	+1.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.