Is Early the Same as Wrong?

Real Estate Market

In his latest piece, Wall Street Greek Real Estate Columnist Michael Douville asks if being early to invest in real estate is wrong. In fact, we remind, the early bird is first to get the worm.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: BAC, OTC: FMCC.OB, OTC: FNMA.OB, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: SRS, NYSE: URE, NYSE: IGR, NYSE: XIN, Nasdaq: RYHRX, Nasdaq: TRREX, NYSE: TOL, NYSE: HOV, NYSE: DHI, NYSE: BZH, NYSE: LEN, NYSE: KBH, NYSE: PHM, NYSE: NVR, NYSE: GFA, NYSE: MDC, NYSE: RYL, NYSE: MTH, NYSE: BHS, NYSE: SPF, NYSE: MHO, AMEX: OHB, NYSE: VNQ, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: JPM, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: ETH, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: WSM, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Nasdaq: AVTR, NYSE: AIV, NYSE: EQR, NYSE: AVB, NYSE: UDR, NYSE: ESS, NYSE: CPT, NYSE: SNH, NYSE: BRE, NYSE: HME, NYSE: MAA, NYSE: ELS, NYSE: ACC, NYSE: CLP, Nasdaq: AGNC, NYSE: SUI, NYSE: AEC, NYSE: PMT and AMEX: TWO.

Is Early the Same as Wrong?

Warren Buffet watched US equities melt in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. The decline corrected from an overvalued equity market to an undervalued equity market, and in Mr. Buffet's opinion became a historic opportunity, as he committed his capital when the Dow was in the 8,000's. He perceived value and committed to buy when most were selling. The equities continued correcting and bottomed in the mid 6,000's; Mr. Buffet was lambasted for poor judgment and many thought he had lost his ability to distinguish inflection points in the economy. Two years later, with the Dow chasing over 11,000, he appears to have regained his genius crown.

At what point is the value of an asset acceptable to become the entry point to purchase? How long does capital sit on the sidelines earning nothing before acceptable levels of risk are established? An investment with a return of 5% net cash flow today may yield 6% in 9 months if prices were to decline, but in the intervening time, the sidelined capital earns absolutely nothing. Conversely, a longer time horizon of 24-36 months may provide rapid asset appreciation which causes the total return to explode due to capital appreciation, but increased entry price action may reduce the cash flow component yield; higher price, lower yield.

At what level of return is capital deployed? Bondholders are signaling a 3-4% annual return is adequate. The perceived low risk in the bond market is masking a potentially much higher degree of real risk that may result in actual capital loss. Money is pouring into bonds seeking safety of principal yet the housing market still stagnates years after the bursting of the bubble, which has corrected price and real risk to much lower levels. Stacks and stacks of capital are sidelined looking for return; every month, more is accumulated. When is the decision to act appropriate? In the securities industry, forecasting a possible severe decline from a potential bubble-top in bonds 3-6 months in the future can be a very long and costly 3 months; shorting bonds while the bubble is still forming can be very dangerous.

The same three-month time frame in a typical transaction involving a real estate asset is often meaningless with the investment horizon often easily beyond five years. Should an investor wait and hope that the asset price may further decline, or should an investor accept a good starting point for returns and grow the asset. No one knows what constitutes the exact low point or when is the absolute optimum time to purchase until prices have risen far beyond the bottom.

During the real estate bubble of 2005-2007, there was NO positive cash flow return on investment; mortgage payments on properties were supplemented by monthly contributions from the owner above and beyond the rent. Cash flows were severely negative. Vacancy factors, maintenance and repair escrows, and management and leasing costs were ignored as if they did not exist. There was no economic benefit to owning properties other than the possibility of future capital gains. Speculators were losing money with a plan to make it up in volume!! Cocktail party conversation revolved around owning property at any price. A negative cash flow loss of $1000/month per property meant appreciation of at least $12,000 per year was necessary just to keep even; worse when vacancy, maintenance, and management were imputed. With Voodoo Economic logic, homes sold, and sold, and sold. Everyone wanted a property. Everyone needed a property. Today things are different.

Real Estate has been decimated across the country. Some segments may be years away from a recovery. Within the asset class there are varied sub-classes such as retail, warehouse, office, multi-family, and single family homes. The last two still represent a commodity of necessity providing one of the food, water, and shelter requirements; these are on the road to recovery. Within the segments of single-family is new construction, which has been severely impacted by the competition from distressed assets being liquidated. The builder segment may be further from recovery than the broader segment of housing.

The US population grows 3-4 million net every year; absorption of excess is taking place. However, there is a lot of excess and the overbuilding supply demand equation has been tremendously impacted first by excess builder inventory, then impacted by the recession which has forced families not only to postpone housing purchases for fear of job loss or adverse business climate, but also postponed new household creations resulting in diminished demand. In addition supply has come to market from foreclosures and short sales exacerbating the problem. This excess is huge, but it is also finite and will eventually be absorbed. The resale market of homes sold in the US is typically 5-6 million units per year; any sustained economic recovery will accelerate the absorption.

There is evidence that the peak in unemployment has been reached and the recovery in jobs will positively affect excess inventory. With very limited new construction adding very little to the supply, pent-up demand and renewed household creation along with historic demographics points toward an eventual recovery. Investors are experiencing increasing cash flow and better tenant quality which reduces expenses via maintenance and repairs.

The price of entry level housing which is typically used as the core of residential rentals seems to be stable to slightly improving. The bursting of the bubble along with a severe recession has forced distressed owners into foreclosure or the short sale process. These former homeowners are prohibited from purchasing for a minimum of two years; hence the investor activity filling the void. Former homeowners have entered the rental market lowering vacancy rates, raising rental rates, and reducing maintenance and repairs due to a better quality tenant experienced with homeownership.

The perfect housing storm has created the the perfect opportunity for investors. Low mortgage rates, low vacancy, low prices, and low maintenance equals high cash flow. A forward looking strategy recognizes the penalty period for former homeowners caught in the maelstrom which is typically 24-30 months at which time the buying population will gradually shift from investors to owner-occupants… families. At this time, a mere 24 months away, half the portfolio could be sold capturing capital gains and applying a portion to reducing the debt on the remaining properties, mitigating risk.

Real estate investment has a different time horizon than a stock or bond investment. Returns are grown as the investment matures. As a farmer knows when he buys land to raise his crops: some years have bad crops; some years have good crops; some years have bumper crops; but the farmer always has a crop. The smart farmer adds to his land bank when land is cheap. Many farmers are selling their land because they fear a drought; they fear a flood; they fear a pestilence; or they just fear. Prices are good. Cash flows are good. Are investors wrong to buy now and start to grow the cash flow or are they just early!?!



Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Holidays Impacted the Jobless Claims Count

Jobless Claims Joyous or Just Jolly?

The market celebrated weekly jobless claims that dropped under the psychological 400K mark, but we suggest tempering your enthusiasm, as the Christmas holiday likely played a role.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ)

Holidays Impact Jobless Claims

In previous publishings here, we have foretold of the market mania that might manifest should jobless claims approach and subvert the psychological, and increasingly meaningful, 400K mark. We have highlighted the market's enthusiasm as it neared the threshold on several occasions, and I continue to believe much of the December market drive has been due to the unemployment claim dive that has coincided with it. The four-week moving average of jobless claims fell 12,500 in the latest week, and the Dow is up 5% for December with one day to go.

Weekly Jobless Claims were reported Thursday for the period ended December 25. The claims count dropped 34,000, to 388K. Economists were stunned, since the consensus forecast was set at 415K (but they never vary far from the prior week result). The four-week moving average was much closer to the conservative forecast for the weekly figure, as it fell to 414K. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate measured the prior week's data, which concluded on December 18th, and so did not participate in the joy expressed this week – insured unemployment increased a tenth of a point to 3.3%. The insured unemployed count increased by 54K heads.

Logic seems to say that the latest week's surprise has something to do with human consideration or at least general malaise. One or the other should be behind the latest week's good news, since it was, after all, the week before Christmas. We would hope executive decision makers and HR executioners fell on the side of kindness, but we know better. The weeks of late December offer general malaise throughout the office space, and very little gets done, including layoffs.

Believe it or not, that same malaise might even have extended to the folks who got fired last week, as stocking filling government aid is not often high on the wish list for St. Nick. Therefore, market mavens, tread carefully with your paper profits, as post holiday data might offer a return to labor market malignancy and weekly jobless counts above 400K.

FYI:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 11 were in Alaska (7.3 percent), Puerto Rico (5.1), Montana (4.8), Oregon (4.8), Pennsylvania (4.6), Idaho (4.5), California (4.4), Nevada (4.3), New Jersey (4.2), and Wisconsin (4.2).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 18 were in New Jersey (+5,235), Michigan (+3,087), Missouri (+2,404), Florida (+2,281), and Oregon (+2,026), while the largest decreases were in California (-7,656), Illinois (-3,149), Georgia (-1,935), Pennsylvania (-1,574), and Texas (-1,494)



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Roaring Rare Earth Stocks!

Uncovering Opportunity

Rare earth dealing stocks took off this week, reviving a year-long climb. By Tuesday the popular press was well focused on the gains, as a report that China would be limiting exports of rare earth elements found the wire. At this point, investors are most interested in learning if it is too late to benefit, and we think we have uncovered a couple ways you still might.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers include: NYSE: MCP, NYSE: REE, Nasdaq: REMX, AMEX: GMO, Nasdaq: XING, AMEX: SHZ, AMEX: AVL, ASX: LYC.AX, OTC: LYSCF.PK, OTC: LYSDY.PK, NYSE: RIO, NYSE: BHP, OTC: GWMGF.PK, CDNX: GWG.V, Nasdaq: CHGS, AMEX: URZ, Nasdaq: CDII, NYSE: QXM, AMEX: ABL, AMEX: CDY, OTC: ARAFF.PK, ASX: ARU.AX, ASX: ALK.AX, Nasdaq: WEBM, Nasdaq: BASI, Nasdaq: GCFB, Nasdaq: PULS, Nasdaq: NANX, Nasdaq: PRPH, Nasdaq: RNOW, Nasdaq: ALTI, Nasdaq: OSN, Nasdaq: TWER, Nasdaq: KONE, Nasdaq: CACB, Nasdaq: WSB, NYSE: RC, Nasdaq: FFBH, Nasdaq: AMRS, Nasdaq: KGJI, AMEX: ADK-WT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: HAUP, Nasdaq: SCKT, Nasdaq: ULBI, Nasdaq: SCMF, Nasdaq: CAVO, Nasdaq: TGIS, Nasdaq: PBIO, Nasdaq: ESMC, Nasdaq: DARA, Nasdaq: INOC, Nasdaq: FCFL, Nasdaq: CTEK, Nasdaq: BNSO, AMEX: BTX, AMEX: INS, Nasdaq: CPBK, AMEX: QBC, Nasdaq: ORCH, NYSE: KFS, Nasdaq: CLWT, Nasdaq: HMNF, Nasdaq: GRNB, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ.

Roaring Rare Earth Stocks

In case you were unaware, rare earth elements are of strategic importance to our defense industry, and China has quietly amassed a 96%+ majority of the world's supply of the scarce stuff. We are talking about dysprosium (vital to clean energy), terbium, europium, neodymium, and yttrium. These are not household names, but the iPhone and other mobile phones, flat screen televisions, compact fluorescent light bulbs, and rocket guidance systems they are used in are, and clean energy initiatives involving wind turbines and electric cars will need them too if we are to seriously move toward energy independence.

Showing us how China will deal with the world in a future in which it becomes more important, the country has imposed criminal export taxes on these and less expensive rare earths like lanthanum and cerium, which are used in oil refining and glass manufacturing. The World Trade Organization has banned export taxes, but China has imposed them on these elements for the last four years - simply because it can. In some cases, materials that cost a few dollars a pound in China, cost $40+ elsewhere, due to the tariffs. That's called giving it to ya good where I come from. Imagine how China will deal with us when it is a more important military and economic power.

Dysprosium helps magnets retain their magnetic properties under extreme temperatures (for permanent magnets), which makes it important to clean energy industries. Its near complete current production in China, and the strong push for clean energy including within China, has some experts worried the limited supply of the resource could stymie development for five years or so. Because of this, along with China's unfair currency policy and low cost labor, alternative energy companies are basing operations in China, which nearly ensures the US manufacturing base will find no benefit from the shift toward energy independence. That's a bummer for President Obama and his big hopes to revive the Midwest.

The Chinese seem to have legitimate reasons for controlling supply, starting with their own burgeoning domestic demand derived from multiplying middle class development. It seems the strategic importance of the elements will ease legislative and regulatory restrictions that had helped to shut down US production previously, in favor of cheaper Chinese sources. However, for now, the demand/supply equation has been wildly swayed, and prices have rocketed. For instance, in 2003, you could get a pound of dysprosium for $6.50, though I don't know where. Today it runs upward of $132 a pound. Thus, capital is running to rare earth miners and companies whispering of moving some of their mining resources to rare earth production.

Thus, over the past month or so, a creeping of the rare earth stocks has shifted back into high gear once again. Molycorp (NYSE: MCP) has reinvigorated its year-long trend higher, rising 70% thus far in December alone. Rare Element Resources (NYSE: REE), another name getting plenty of attention, was up 14% Wednesday alone and is up 49% since the start of the month. This stock was less than $2 back in the summer, and now trades near $15! REE is a North American like Molycorp, based in Canada, and has operations in Wyoming. It mines gold and rare earth elements, so it is doing okay despite gold's lag... Trading volume was almost seven times normal Wednesday for this debt free company, and REE has been active this month raising money for E&P, since it can at will now.

If you are seeking exposure at less risk, you might try the Market Vectors Rare Earth Metals ETF (Nasdaq: REMX), though it is not a pure play on the squeezed resources out of China. The ETF was only up 7% Wednesday and is up 20% this month. General Moly (AMEX: GMO) was up 10% Wednesday, and is a development stage company focusing on molybdenum through a property in Nevada. It's a money loser and cash burner, but with prices on the rise and supply constrained, the economics of operation are changing for all of these companies.

"This move has all the components that a stock frenzy needs, as it includes China and a mysterious good that nobody understands."

This move has all the components that a stock frenzy needs, as it includes China and a mysterious good that nobody understands. The quick profits are sending capital into more speculative names as well, including stocks of companies that have little or no currently proven resources in the commodities of interest, but are prospecting hopefuls or at least people are saying they might be. The latter is implied by the movement in the shares of Qiao Xing Universal Resources (Nasdaq: XING), up 46% Wednesday to $2.71. The company is a zinc and copper miner with resources in Mongolia, but is somehow finding frenzied capital interested from rare earth seekers. Whether something pans out or not probably will not matter to the traders pushing this stock up, when they pull the rug out from under you later. And it is probable also that unsophisticated investors in China are helping fuel the rise too, which makes for an unreliable support base.

Shares of China Shen Zhou Mining & Resources (AMEX: SHZ) has most of the hot keywords in its name, and so led all gainers Wednesday, rising 69%. This company also focuses on copper and zinc, but has mysterious properties in inner Mongolia that smell good to frenzied capital. Buyer beware, and take a close look at the company's 10K or Chinese facsimile to see if it has rare earth possibilities. We are guessing by the movement Wednesday that a few investors might have discovered this to be true, or were saying so anyway. We went through the last 10K issued for March-end and saw only copper, zinc and fluorite within its portfolio, and one location indicated further exploration might find more minerals, but did not expand as to whether those would be more of the same or something magical. So, is it speculation driving the shares, or inside knowledge or unfounded rumors? Whatever the case, it's not enough to trade on from my perspective. And be careful if you find information in the latest 10Q that did not exist in the 10K issued for March, because this is China we're talking about, the land of legend.

Then there are companies like Avalon Rare Metals (AMEX: AVL), which have it all together. The company was formed in 1991, but changed its name in February 2009 from Avalon Ventures to Avalon Rare Metals (so you would better notice it). What I like best about it is that it makes everything even more mysterious by looking for the alien goods beneath a dark Canadian lake. This stock stopped taking part in the fun after a Monday morning spike higher, and though it may eventually dig up something, I'm not excited about it right now.

Australia based Lynas Corp. (OTC: LYSCF.PK) is a tiny company active in rare earth and other mining in Australia and Asia. Lynas' Australian shares (ASX: LYC.AX) gained about 8% Wednesday, while its ADRs in the US (OTC: LYSDY.PK) gained about 14% and are up 30% through December. A look at the company's website seems to indicate it has all the right stuff, and after reviewing comparable info from the US State Department's December Report, it appears to have relative importance. The company claims to have the richest deposit of rare earths outside of China, and the US State Department Report I checked seems to agree. Lynas expects to be first to market outside of China in Q3 2011, and I'm officially interested.

You can be sure that given the new economies of the sector, the big boys, those being Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) and BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), are paying attention to the ones worth noting. If you catch a whiff of who they're sniffing up, you might have a lead on which stocks make best long-term sense; and I'm talking about if they're not bought out. There are also going to be a bunch of worthless miners that might stumble upon an opportunity and create some millionaires in the process. This is an interesting place to prospect, but it's the most dangerous treading, so be careful. As for the group generally, the stocks have run up so much, and there is so great uncertainty (outside of this blog anyway) about which ones will really produce the key rare earths over the next five years, that I would look for a January pullback for the group broadly before considering long-term stakes using perhaps LEAPS. You might use the REMX ETF for that. Of the stocks, Australia's Lynas has my interest right now (I'm calling it a "Buy"), and Australia's other projects look promising as well.



The rest of Wednesday's most active stocks included gainers: WebMediaBrands (Nasdaq: WEBM), Bioanalytical Systems (Nasdaq: BASI), Granite City (Nasdaq: GCFB), Pulse Electronics (Nasdaq: PULS), Nanophase Technologies (Nasdaq: NANX), ProPhase Labs (Nasdaq: PRPH), RightNow Technologies (Nasdaq: RNOW), Altair Nanotechnologies (Nasdaq: ALTI), Ossen Innovation (Nasdaq: OSN), Towerstream (Nasdaq: TWER), Kingtone Wireless Info (Nasdaq: KONE), Cascade Bancorp (Nasdaq: CACB), WSB Holdings (Nasdaq: WSB), Grupo Radio Centro (NYSE: RC), First Federal Bancshares of Ark (Nasdaq: FFBH), Amyris (Nasdaq: AMRS); Losers: Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Adcare Health Systems Warrants (AMEX: ADK-WT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Hauppauge Digital (Nasdaq: HAUP), Socket Mobile (Nasdaq: SCKT), Ultralife (Nasdaq: ULBI), Southern Community Financial (Nasdaq: SCMF), Cavico (Nasdaq: CAVO), Thomas Group (Nasdaq: TGIS), Pressure Biosciences (Nasdaq: PBIO), Escalon Medical (Nasdaq: ESMC), DARA Biosciences (Nasdaq: DARA), Innotrac (Nasdaq: INOC), First Community Bank (Nasdaq: FCFL), CleanTech Innovations (Nasdaq: CTEK), Bonso Electronics (Nasdaq: BNSO), BioTime (AMEX: BTX), Intelligent Systems (AMEX: INS), Community Capital (Nasdaq: CPBK), Cubic Energy (AMEX: QBC), Orchid Cellmark (Nasdaq: ORCH), Kingsway Financial Services (NYSE: KFS), Euro Tech Holdings (Nasdaq: CLWT), HMN Financial (Nasdaq: HMNF) and Green Bankshares (Nasdaq: GRNB).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Mr. Kaminis held no beneficial interest in any mentioned security at the hour of publishing this article, though he may take interest at later date.

Consumers Safekeep Holiday Spirit in 2010

Now for the Hangover

While it looks like Americans spent a bunch more money than many expected this year, we wonder if the sharp drop in consumer confidence reported for December 2010 is a result of their day-after realization of overspending and/or undergifting.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Consumers Safekeep Holiday Spirit in 2010

The latest consumer spending data released today covering holiday shopping activity showed Americans may have lost their jobs in 2010, but they retained their holiday spirit - perhaps at their own cost. Last week, we expressed concern about the weekly sales results, based on the data's benefit from the inclusion of Super Saturday and its absence from the prior year comparable. We expressed concern that the absence of Super Saturday from this week's same-store sales data, versus an inclusive prior year comparable might drive equal and balancing disappointment this Tuesday.

However, ICSC reported that same-store sales for the week ended December 25, increased 4.8% year-to-year. Redbook concurred, noting a 4.6% sales increase. It's important to remember though just how bad last year was. While the stock market had already recovered from the pit, the economy was mired in the mud at the bottom of it. Thus, consumers were not as enthused as investors, though they had certainly benefited from wealth restoral in stocks; at least those who had not sworn off the fever forever. The problem is that many had.

A thoughtful reader of our article at a syndicate site last week offered his view that the day off on Friday might balance out the weakness caused by the absence of Super Saturday from the data. The Christmas weekend was a three-day holiday both years despite the date upon which Christmas fell. However, last year, Christmas Eve fell on Thursday, a full work day, and this year it occurred on Friday, an off-day allowing for last minute shopping for all Americans. So, we thank our reader for pointing out an important offset to our concerns. We witnessed with our own eyes streets full of holiday shoppers Friday on the Upper East Side of New York City. This certainly saved the week.

We also wondered whether the fact that a great deal of Americans had already finished their holiday shopping was good news or bad for retailers, considering they had likely paid less this year while chasing early deals. In the end though, it appears the creative marketing that thrives within the retail sector allowed it to adapt and survive 17% underemployment. Even the blizzard that struck the population dense Northeastern US could not stymie retail marketers, who are extending after Christmas sales to fit. It also certainly helped that the government passed unemployment insurance extensions, giving confidence to folks hanging on the edge.

Today, MasterCard (NYSE: MA) Advisors' SpendingPulse, which measures all retail sales (not just credit purchases), said for the period extending from November 5 through December 24, sales increased 5.5%. The rate of growth compared against 2009's 4.1% holiday pace, and it marked the fastest in five years. However, rates of growth are relative to the base they are measured upon. That said, and despite the easy bar setting, this is still good news.

It just so happens that Consumer Confidence was measured and published by the Conference Board today for the month of December. Putting a damper on things, confidence moved against the trend of the sales data noted today. December's confidence index slipped to 52.0, against the prior period's revised 54.3 and economists' consensus forecast for 57.4 this month, as compiled by Bloomberg. It is likely that this news had the S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) down fractionally through the hour of publishing. Negative housing price data out of S&P Case Shiller certainly did not help either. Shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) are trading with only fractional variance at the hour of publishing.

We have to wonder if consumer confidence didn't deteriorate due to the perhaps season-swayed spending of Americans that they now regret, realizing only afterwards that they really couldn't afford it. Or maybe they are just bummed about the lesser gifts given and received this year, and the friends and family they had to cut out. I would not read too positively into spirited holiday shopping, as consumers are likely to remain tight-fisted due to necessity moving forward.



Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Market Movers - China Rates, Oil, AIG, TSLA, CALM, HRB, JTX

Monday's Markets

The day after a blizzard walloped the Northeastern U.S., stock traders somehow managed to borough their way through to Wall Street. With a dearth of economic data, news from China, the BOJ and American corporates mostly moved the market.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: AIG, Nasdaq: CALM, NYSE: M, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: HBC, NYSE: HRB, NYSE: JTX, Nasdaq: AMAP, Nasdaq: SFUN, Nasdaq: DARA, Nasdaq: RPRX, NYSE: GU, AMEX: AVL, NYSE: CBC-PB, Nasdaq: BPAX, Nasdaq: VRML, Nasdaq: PRVT, Nasdaq: BASI, AMEX: TOF, Nasdaq: VLNC, AMEX: ELC, NYSE: MHH, AMEX: REE, Nasdaq: VSCP, Nasdaq: LACO, Nasdaq: WLBC, Nasdaq: SPCHB, Nasdaq: STSA, Nasdaq: JSDA, Nasdaq: ADLR, AMEX: SHZ, Nasdaq: PSDV, Nasdaq: CAEID, Nasdaq: TSLA, Nasdaq: XOMA, Nasdaq: CART, Nasdaq: ARCW, Nasdaq: FFBH, Nasdaq: MBTF, Nasdaq: ACAD, NYSE: LAS, Nasdaq: TNGN, Nasdaq: SBAY, Nasdaq: APRI, Nasdaq: KGJI, Nasdaq: FXEN, Nasdaq: KONE, Nasdaq: ALIM, Nasdaq: DRYS.

Market Movers – China Rates, Oil, AIG, TSLA, CALM, HRB, JTX

Markets remained closed for Christmas in Australia, Canada, the U.K. and Hong Kong, but even with the stymieing snowfall, the NYSE (NYSE: NYX) opened just fine below a buried Wall Street. The big market moving news originated from China today, where the government again raised its benchmark interest rate for the second time in a little more than two months. The announcement came on December 25th, setting the benchmark 1-year lending rate higher by 25 basis points, to 5.81%, and the deposit rate raised by the same amount, to 2.75%. China is dealing with its highest inflation in two years time.

The Bank of Japan published the minutes of its October and November meetings Monday. The BOJ minutes show some members' discontent with the US Fed's quantitative easing. The Bank of Israel kept its key rate steady at 2.0%, meeting the markets' expectation. Annual inflation in Israel in November was marked at 2.3%, falling within the Bank's target range of 1-3%. The government says housing activity slowed at the most recent check, easing some of the pressure on the bank to act.

Commodities Markets

Oil prices garnered some news Monday, rising to a fresh two-year high. Crude prices benefited from rumors that producing nations saw no need for any production boost in the near-term. However, prices fell from their high at $92, toward $91, on concern tied to the Chinese actions to curb inflation. Meanwhile, US and UK representatives expressed disdain with Russia, as Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his business partner Platon Lebedev were found guilty of theft and money laundering by a court in Moscow.

Gold shrugged off the Chinese bank action, with futures for February delivery rising to $1382.90, off some from the December 7 high of $1432.50.

Retail Snowed Out?

From boom to bust, a recently excited investor base has now shifted to concern. We caught a retail sector guru on CNBC calling the loss of the day after Christmas selling opportunity permanent to retailers. Retail stocks from Macy's (NYSE: M) to The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Target (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) showed only fractional variance today, though Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) was off 1.6%. Many retailers will likely offer after-after-Christmas deals in order to make up the miss, in my view. Retail industry creativity is infinite.

Corporate Drivers

The corporate wire was headed by news that AIG (NYSE: AIG) had secured $4.3 billion in credit facilities. The capital raising effort will help the insurance giant free itself from government grips, and the stock rose 11% on the news to a two-year high. This marks the first time AIG has been able to access credit markets since 2008. 36 banks came together to replace the Fed's rescue funding. The stock has doubled year-to-date, but after taking into account its reverse split, AIG still has far to come to return to pre-crisis levels.

Cal-Maine (Nasdaq: CALM) reported earnings today of $0.63, but missed the analysts' consensus peg at $0.72. CALM shares were anything but today, falling 3.6%. The nation's major egg producer exceeded expectations on the revenue line, but its profit margins slipped on higher feed costs. At first glance, I would not be a buyer on today's weakness, as I see agricultural prices only coming under more pressure over the long-term trend-line. Without the proper hedges against this, perhaps CALM is vulnerable to more misses.

Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) shares fell 15%, as about 80% of the company's stock became tradable for the first time on the expiration of the IPO lock-up period. The electric carmaker is under pressure to get its products to the market, and IPO buyers clearly felt the heat to unload shares.

HSBC (NYSE: HBC) was told by bank regulators it can no longer continue a deal with H&R Block (NYSE: HRB), through which the two offered short-term loans to HRB's customers anticipating tax refunds. HBC was off a half point, while HRB dropped 7% on the loss of the important business draw. Jackson-Hewitt Tax Services (NYSE: JTX) is one beneficiary, with its shares up 30% today.

AmBev is splitting its shares 5-for-1 after the close of trading. IPO lockup restrictions expire on AutoNavi Holdings (Nasdaq: AMAP). The EPS schedule includes KV Pharmaceutical (NYSE: KV-A, NYSE: KV-B). SouFun (Nasdaq: SFUN) has a conference call scheduled.

Market movers on the upside included DARA Biosciences (Nasdaq: DARA), Repros Therapeutics (Nasdaq: RPRX), Gushan Environmental Energy (NYSE: GU), Avalon Rare Metals (AMEX: AVL), Capitol Bancorp Ltd. Trust Pfd. (NYSE: CBC-PB), Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BPAX), Vermillion (Nasdaq: VRML), Private Media Group (Nasdaq: PRVT), Bioanalytical Systems (Nasdaq: BASI), Tofutti Brands (AMEX: TOF), Valence Technology (Nasdaq: VLNC), Eastern Light Capital (AMEX: ELC), Mastech (NYSE: MHH), Rare Element Resources (AMEX: REE), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), Lakes Entertainment (Nasdaq: LACO), Western Liberty Bancorp (Nasdaq: WLBC), Sport Chalet (Nasdaq: SPCHB), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Jones Soda (Nasdaq: JSDA), Adolor (Nasdaq: ADLR) and China Shen Zhou Mining and Resources (AMEX: SHZ). On the decline: pSividia (Nasdaq: PSDV), China Architectural Engineering (Nasdaq: CAEID), Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA), XOMA (Nasdaq: XOMA), Carolina Trust Bank (Nasdaq: CART), Arc Wireless Solutions (Nasdaq: ARCW), First Federal Bancshares of Ark (Nasdaq: FFBH), MBT Financial (Nasdaq: MBTF), Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACAD), Lentuo International (NYSE: LAS), Tengion (Nasdaq: TNGN), Subaye (Nasdaq: SBAY), Apricus Biosciences (Nasdaq: APRI), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), FX Energy (Nasdaq: FXEN), Kingtone Wireless Info (Nasdaq: KONE), Alimera Sciences (Nasdaq: ALIM), Dryships (Nasdaq: DRYS).



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Film & Theatre, by Karageorge

Penelope Karageorge

Columnist

Film & Theatre

A freelance journalist, Penelope Karageorge writes frequently about film and theatre. She is the author of a crime novel, Murder at Tomorrow (Walker Publishing), Stolen Moments (Pinnacle Press) and a poetry collection, Red Lipstick and the Wine-Dark Sea (Pella Publishing). Her short stories have been published in journals as diverse as Mouth Full of Bullets and The Charioteer. Penelope began her career as a Newsweek reporter, interviewing luminaries including Bette Davis and Cary Grant. She was publicity director of People magazine. She's currently developing her original film script, a romantic comedy set on the Greek island of Lemnos, Drinking the Sun.

"It is our great pleasure to welcome this accredited reporter to our family of columnists. Penelope, like so many of our writers, is someone we share coffee and commentary with regularly, and whose company we enjoy. We are absolutely thrilled to bring her critical film and theatre reviews to you, for the coloring of your cultural life."

Markos N. Kaminis
Penelope's Articles:

• Wasted Youth - A Greek Film Review
• Who Loves You, Baby? Evokes the Great Telly Savalas
• Opa Greek Cultural Cruise - Penelope's Diary
• The Greek Films of 2011 Reflect the Day's Greece
• Vassilakis: Cool Greek Jazz Artist
• Readers of Homer Thrills New York on its Epic Tour
• Dogtooth, Oscar Nominee for Best Foreign Film
• Wall Street Fandango
• New York City Greek Film Festival of 2010

Full Disclosure: Penelope has agreed to Wall Street Greek policy to avoid the authoring of articles about securities she personally owns or holds beneficial interest in. In the event of a special case, we expect Penelope will make full disclosure of ownership or beneficial interest, which is her responsibility. The work of contributors to Wall Street Greek is their own, and may not necessarily agree with the opinion of the site or its founder, and does not constitute financial advice. Please see our full disclosure at Wall Street Greek.

Article interests NYSE: DIS, NYSE: DWA, NYSE: CNK, NYSE: RGC, NYSE: RLD, NYSE: LGF, Nasdaq: RENT, Nasdaq: CKEC, Nasdaq: LSTZA, NYSE: MHP, NYSE: PSO, NYSE: JW-A, NYSE: JW-B, Nasdaq: SCHL, Nasdaq: CRRC, NYSE: NED, Nasdaq: PEDH, NYSE: BKS, Nasdaq: AMZN, Nasdaq: BAMM, NYSE: BGP, OTC: LYFE.OB, Nasdaq: NOOF, OTC: PUBM.OB, OTC: IFLM.OB, Nasdaq: PTSX, Nasdaq: SAPX, OTC: AFFW.OB, NYSE: TWX, Nasdaq: NWSA and Paris: VIV.PA.

Stock Market Closed this Christmas Eve 2010

Some of you may be swearing the stock market was open last year on Christmas Eve, and you are right. Wall Street was open for business last year, because Christmas fell on Friday, and it seems the stock market operators honor the idea of a three-day holiday more than the important Christian celebration, also recognized by Muslims, and enjoyed by nearly all Americans. In 2009 though, the markets did at least close early. However, in 2010, with Christmas falling on Saturday, the three-day national holiday also includes Christmas Eve, and the stock market is closed. In case you were wondering…

Stock Market Closed Christmas Eve

Our Wish List for St. Nicholas:

• To Win the NY Megamillions Lottery of $168 million so we can really get this engine revved up and do some good for mankind in many planned, yet unfunded endeavors.


• A video camera and editing software, so we might begin publishing original video content


• More TV & radio media coverage


• A few more syndicate partners


• A corporate level advertising sponsor or two


• A Forex Market Columnist


• An Options Market Columnist


• A Fixed Income Columnist


• A television made in the last two decades so we can enjoy business news in HD


• A high quality digital camera


• Editorial help


• An investor and/or managing partner for some of our fringe efforts


• Better salesmen so Markos can focus on content


• Better office space with some visibility


• God's blessing and guidance, cause we believe over here


• Improved comedic skill

Relative tickers: NYSE: NYX, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: DOG, Nasdaq: ETFC, Nasdaq: AMTD, NYSE: STT, Nasdaq: TROW, NYSE: JNS, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: AM, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: KSS, NYSE: SKS, NYSE: M, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: DDS, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: BKE, NYSE: CBK, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: DSW, NYSE: MW, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: SHLD, Nasdaq: JOSB, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: HOTT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: CTRN, Nasdaq: ROST, Nasdaq: BEBE, Nasdaq: DBRN, Nasdaq: PLCE, Nasdaq: URBN, Nasdaq: QQQQ.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

New Home Sales November 2010 Review

New Home Market Pathetic

New Homes Sales were reported this morning for November 2010, and according to some, they may have represented a "pivotal turn in the housing market." According to us, that's foolish bull! Housing remains pathetic, especially within the New Home market.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: BAC, OTC: FMCC.OB, OTC: FNMA.OB, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: SRS, NYSE: URE, NYSE: IGR, NYSE: XIN, Nasdaq: RYHRX, Nasdaq: TRREX, NYSE: TOL, NYSE: HOV, NYSE: DHI, NYSE: BZH, NYSE: LEN, NYSE: KBH, NYSE: PHM, NYSE: NVR, NYSE: GFA, NYSE: MDC, NYSE: RYL, NYSE: MTH, NYSE: BHS, NYSE: SPF, NYSE: MHO, AMEX: OHB, NYSE: VNQ, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: JPM, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: ETH, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: WSM, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Nasdaq: AVTR, NYSE: AIV, NYSE: EQR, NYSE: AVB, NYSE: UDR, NYSE: ESS, NYSE: CPT, NYSE: SNH, NYSE: BRE, NYSE: HME, NYSE: MAA, NYSE: ELS, NYSE: ACC, NYSE: CLP, Nasdaq: AGNC, NYSE: SUI, NYSE: AEC, NYSE: PMT and AMEX: TWO.

New Home Sales November 2010 Review

The US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reported on New Home Sales for the month of November 2010 this morning. I could not help but chuckle after reading a report on a respected news provider's website, which expressed joy at the 5.5% growth for the annual pace of sales in November. Many of these websites hire unseasoned writers and editors lacking financial markets experience, and life experience for that matter. I've seen this personally, with a twenty-something editor once completely altering an analysis of mine (recall I was a Senior Analyst); when I complained, the publisher sided with the novice editor, who was an internal employee, versus my freelance status. This is what you are buying into in many surprising instances… And this is a big reason why I've decided to tell truth in this independent fashion. I must warn you that publishers are not paying enough to attract high-level content producers, and I cannot comprehend why anyone would choose to be a business writer today in such an environment. There are more appealing career routes, like perhaps in waste disposal. Seriously, writers make less.

That awesome 5.5% growth in New Home Sales, took the pace of sales to 290K, which is pathetic. However, that fact was unfortunately overlooked by the novice reporter at the aforementioned publisher. Sales overcame a revised October pace of 275K, reduced from 283K. Thus, the growth got a boost from the reduction of the comparable period number. Otherwise, it would have marked a rate of 2.5%, which perhaps the gleeful grunt might not have found so great. Regionally speaking, sales improved in the south and west, while the sales pace declined in the more mature markets of the Northeast and Midwest.

Neither did it faze our fabulous friend that November's sales pace fell short of the consensus estimate taken by Bloomberg's survey of economists, which targeted a level of 300K new home sales. The wrong writer also missed the important fact that sales were down 21.2% from this time last year. In other words, this is a bad report, as I might put it to my peer before I relocated him to sweeping up duties (his story in particular) - if I were his editor. It just bothers me that this kind of work is being taken seriously because of the name atop the website, while our catchy but perhaps comical brand might turn a head or two away before even reading a sentence. It's up to you to get the word out…

The state of the new home market is pathetic, plain and simple, and capital is impossible to find for the smaller builders. Now, well-established and seasoned home builders like Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) use markets like these to go out and buy land on the cheap from troubled smaller developers. That said, TOL is down about 2% at this intraday trading hour, after a week of run-up on a reported profit. The Homebuilders SPDR (NYSE: XHB) is down about a half a point as well, given the wakeup call delivered this week, following a just finalized feeding frenzy.

New home supply moved to 8.2 months, improved from the revised 8.8 months inventory in October. Putting things into proper perspective, supply was at 7.7 months last November. It's important that you realize that housing supply is measured by the rate of sales, and so it is not a simple reading of the number of homes out there built and available for sale. Months matter to property owners, because they pay monthly interest on loans taken out for the purchase of land.

The median and average sales prices of a new home improved in November. Median prices gained to $213K, up from $197,200 in October, but fell from $218,800 at this time last year. Average prices also gained over October, up to $268,700, from $248,700. Average prices were down though from $274,700 last November. We suspect prices improved over October more so due to the attrition of developed properties out there in the wind for sale, and a lack of new development, versus due to a generally improving real estate environment. That said, if properties move at higher pricing, we have an improving environment for builders. Still, prices had dropped significantly from September, and remain below those levels in November. And they're still well below spring levels, which were synthetically lifted by the government's housing tax incentive. I should note that I expect prices to decline further, and this week Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) expressed its concurrence, forecasting real estate will shed another 11% or so through 2012.

We see little robustness in the levels of activity in the categories of development, with homes not started and under construction not showing any signs of life. Eventually, this new home segment of the real estate market will benefit from consolidation and today's underdevelopment resulting from the foreclosure flooded real estate market. This is because of stubborn population growth, a trend of general long-term personal economic improvement, and a labor market that had better improve. However, eventually is not today.



Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Misunderstood Same-Store Sales Surge Offers Opportunity for Short Investors

Oversight Misled Retail Stocks Tuesday

An important calendar difference was missed by major media and expert analysts alike Tuesday. The oversight, and the later promotion of the wrong message by pundits, looks to have inflated same-store sales growth and provided a special opportunity for short investors over the near-term, especially in retail industry stocks.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Tickers: NYSE: XRT, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: C, NYSE: WFC)

A Misunderstood Same-Store Sales Surge Offers Opportunity for Retail Stock Shorts

Loyal Wall Street Greek readers have gotten used to our regular debunking and uncovering of anomalies behind what can appear as strong economic data. Once again Tuesday, we uncovered an important and deflating detail that was overlooked and left out by every major business media outlet and even Wall Street's most respected retail sector stock analysts. This is a reminder of why you read the expert authored blog, Wall Street Greek.

When the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported same-store sales Tuesday at a level that marked the best growth for the entire holiday shopping season, economists, strategists, analysts and portfolio managers alike got on television and radio and proclaimed the American consumer alive and well. Indeed, even I was left scratching my head, wondering why… for a second or two. After all, for the period ended December 18, same-store sales marked 1.7% growth, week-over-week, and 4.2% growth against the prior year comparable period. Redbook concurred, showing 3.8% year-to-year growth for the same period. The S&P Retail SPDR (NYSE: XRT) was up fractionally on the day, but Macy's (NYSE: M) moved 1.5% higher, while Target (NYSE: TGT) jumped 1.9% and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) gained 1.2%.

After researching the subject, I almost bought into the conclusion offered by some high-level industry folks. The big idea was that shoppers came out in force last week, packing in a good portion of their shopping during the period. The ICSC Index and report released Tuesday seemed to concur with this assumption, given that it showed 74% of consumers had finished their holiday shopping through December 18, which was up from 56.6% the week earlier. That surge in shopping activity could be behind some of the week's extraordinary growth. According to a Bloomberg article on the subject, Oppenheimer Analyst, Brian Nagle, seemed to agree. However, based on one important fact that most if not all of Wall Street and the business press missed, we have to disagree.

What Had Happened...

What the pundits and speak-easies missed was an important calendar difference between 2009 and 2010. Bloomberg Radio Host Kathleen Hays almost stumbled upon it when she asked an expert guest if the reason might be seasonal. He quickly and sternly stamped out that truth, saying it couldn't be seasonal, given that the growth was measured on a year-to-year basis. WRONG!!! Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! And shame on you Mr. Expert for leading Bloomberg's audience in the wrong direction by sounding like you knew what you were talking about. Kathleen, "The Greek" should have been your guest Tuesday. I know from my experience as an analyst, and from the advice given to analysts by a seasoned talking head back at my old firm, that it is widely believed that giving any answer to a television or radio interviewer is better than giving no answer. Wrong and unethical! Thus, many of the talking heads you see on TV answer confidently, when sometimes they are just regurgitating what they have read or heard somewhere else, or they are simply spewing out their best guess. In other words, sometimes the well articulated and seemingly sound advice of experts is completely baseless and hazardous for investors to buy into.

Super Saturday is the second most important shopping day of the year after Black Friday, with Cyber Monday and Christmas Eve likely on their heels. Super Saturday is the Saturday immediately preceding Christmas, but it does not always fall on the same calendar date each year, and this year a slight differential misled the entire market.

Christmas falls on Saturday this year, but it fell on Friday in 2009. Thus, Super Saturday fell on December 18th this year, and was measured in the latest week's same-store sales. However, last year, Super Saturday fell on December 19th, and so it was absent from this latest prior year comparable that the 4.2% growth climbed over; its impact will instead be seen in next week's report. Therefore, next week's same-store sales growth result has a good chance of falling short of expectations and disappointing investors, if our analysis does not restore market efficiency sooner than that. Given this week's message, or false message, investors who might have been misled into buying retail stocks Tuesday could regret their action shortly on market correction.

Other data and expert analysis seem to point toward trouble for the whole of the holiday shopping period. The National Retail Federation Survey released in the middle of the month noted that 62% of adults surveyed said they would spend the same amount of money or more this year than in 2009. This fact also seemed to enthuse a few fools Tuesday, especially while complementing the 4.2% inflated period growth. However, those of us who have a bit of math proficiency remind readers that if this is true, then 38% of shoppers will be spending less this year. That second bit of information, characterizing a large number of people who usually spend about the same amount every year, likely plays more importantly for retail revenues and profits… but not for headlines.

Retail guru, Jay Margolis, pointed out that consumers were following deals this year, and staying home if there were none. He noted desperate retailers' broad store-wide discounting late in the season but well ahead of Christmas, as shop managers seek to ensure the movement of inventory. Otherwise, retailers would be faced with excess, and need to discount even further post Christmas. This is a bad sign, and it means shop-keeps will be turning inventory, but at a lower ticket. That little ditty should keep revenues soft and profit margins tight come quarter end. Therefore, assuming the week's 4.2% growth doesn't coincidentally correlate with the direction and state of the sales season, then this potentially mistaken surge in retail shares could offer opportunity for short investors of retail sector stocks.



This article should prove interesting to investors in NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: WFC.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Holiday Shopping Spending in 2010

Topic of Debate

Are you spending more, less or the same amount of money for gifts this holiday shopping season versus last year?

There are a plethora of reports littering the pages of major publishers these days offering varying views of the health of this year's holiday shopping season. We suspect spending is down this year, considering the length of time too many of us have been unemployed or underemployed. Yet, we find retail stocks surging today on a report of strong same-store sales (be sure to see the article that follows this though, since we debunk that deceptive data).

The National Retail Federation Survey released in the middle of the December noted that 62% of adults surveyed said they would spend the same amount of money or more this year than they did in 2009. Looking at this same data from another perspective, perhaps 38% of those surveyed are going to spend less money this year, and this seems to be more important for retailers, in our view.

We thought we might take this opportunity to survey our readers and ask:

How is Your Holiday Shopping Spending Shaping Up in 2010?

DEBATE TOPIC ARCHIVE

This article should prove interesting to investors in NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: XRT.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Total Lunar Eclipse of the Moon on the Winter Solstice

Ominous Week Ahead

Is it an omen, with a total lunar eclipse of the moon falling on the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year? Have the Mayans correctly mapped the end of the world, with the start marked by this rare cosmic event? Maybe. But we believe there are plenty of other more tangible reasons to hedge your risk over the short-term.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: GE, NYSE: BA, NYSE: NOC, NYSE: ROK, NYSE: LMT, NYSE: HON, Nasdaq: SBAY, NYSE: TM, NYSE: HOV, Nasdaq: BBBY, NYSE: WAG, NYSE: AM, Nasdaq: FINL, Nasdaq: ARWR, Nasdaq: CDII, NYSE: CBK, NYSE: LNN, NYSE: MU, NYSE: NAV, NYSE: LNT, NYSE: AME, NYSE: FN, NYSE: NKE, NYSE: CCL, Nasdaq: CTAS, NYSE: CAG, NYSE: RHT, NYSE: KMX, NYSE: CMC, NYSE: CPY, Nasdaq: EMKR, Nasdaq: FINL, Nasdaq: FSII, NYSE: HOV, Nasdaq: PRGS, Nasdaq: RDBO, Nasdaq: TIBX, Nasdaq: GENZ, Nasdaq: HANS, NYSE: SHO, OTC: ICPVF.PK, NYSE: HPP, Nasdaq: ADBE, NYSE: DRI, NYSE: JBL, Nasdaq: PAYX, Nasdaq: DKAM

Total Lunar Eclipse of the Moon on the Winter Solstice

Is it an omen? Is it a chance coincidence? Is it the start of the Mayan calendar countdown to the end of days? Maybe… In the early morning hours of Tuesday December 21st, the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year for the Northern Hemisphere, the moon will pass completely through the earth's shadow. It is a cosmic event that has not occurred in about 500 years, and in the year the Mayans predicted would start the countdown for the end of the old world no less. This uncannily timed full eclipse of the moon is a bit bothersome to me, and the week should be of concern to you to as well, but perhaps for other more tangible reasons.

You see, bloody war threatens this week, as South Korea prepares for live fire drills near Yeonpyeong Island, the site of the last scuffle between North and South Koreas. North Korea warned of "catastrophic events" should the South follow through with its plans, but later backed off. Just weeks ago South Korea practiced nationwide war drills that more than ten million of its citizens took part in.

Meanwhile, the West's economic warfare is finally scoring a meaningful blow to the common man in Iran. On Sunday, feeling the heat, the Iranian government was forced to end subsidies on certain products including gasoline. The impact pushed gas prices 400% higher in some places overnight, and might drive a renewal of the fuel driven riots seen in 2007. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also recently abruptly fired his foreign minister and replaced him with the nation's nuclear chief. That's probably and indication that the issue of debate between the two was nuclear related. Civil unrest in Iran is one of the last chances for the West to avoid an ugly war that could drive gas prices higher globally. But is Ahmadinejad preparing a government of his own to replace the Ayatollah's by surrounding himself with friends? One lightly covered Wikileak implied the Supreme Leader of Iran might have terminal cancer, so perhaps the President is planning ahead.

And in the US this week, terrorism seems more likely than in any year since 2001. The possibility of subway attacks in New York seem likely to me, not just possible anymore. While it will not stop me from riding the 4,5 train through Grand Central Station, it probably should. First of all, the NYC subway system has been atop the list of potential trouble spots since the beginning. Last year, some nut tried to blow up his underwear in an airplane, this year a maniac loaded up a truck with explosives and parked it in Times Square. Religious targets are also rising in importance for the enemy, as Christians are now being targeted in Iraq.

Yep, Wall Street Greek is suggesting it would be wise to take a defensive position through the holidays for this reason, or at least hedge well, because chatter is picking up. With gold so pricey, maybe look toward oil, but also the usual stocks that garner attention when terrorism strikes, the anti-terror stocks like American Science & Engineering (Nasdaq: ASEI) and the biotechs that protect against bio-warfare, like Seattle Genetics (Nasdaq: SGEN) and others. Defense stocks might garner some interest again, though they have already been on the rise since the beginning of the year despite US fiscal debate. Just look at the chart for the Powershares Aerospace & Defense (NYSE: PPA).

As far as the economic schedule goes this holiday shortened week, it will include a short list of reports. Investors will want to pay attention to November's Personal Spending data, Existing and New Home Sales, the final reporting of Q3 GDP, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Durable Goods Orders. There will be important overseas activity in Japan and Greece this week, along with the attention on Korea and Iran.

Monday

The Chicago Federal Reserve publishes its National Activity Index on Monday. The Chicago Fed's index basically looks at a series of other economic indicators and attempts to pull the economic puzzle together. It is a cyclical indicator.

Otherwise, the geopolitical topics discussed in our preamble should garner most of the media attention. It is possible some M&A announcement, news on Wall Street bonuses, or DC doings might also guide the way.

As far as the corporate wire goes, Genzyme (Nasdaq: GENZ) is having an investor event for its Alemtuzumab medication, a drug treatment for multiple sclerosis. Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS) meets with investors after the close of trading. Sunstone Hotel Investors (NYSE: SHO) is holding a conference call for its senior leadership restructuring effort. Incitec Pivot (OTC: ICPVF.PK) will hold its annual general meeting and webcast. IPO lockup restrictions end on Hudson Pacific Properties (NYSE: HPP). The EPS schedule includes Adobe Systems (Nasdaq: ADBE), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Drinks Americas (Nasdaq: DKAM) and more.

Tuesday

The shortest day of the year will also offer a total lunar eclipse, so that the moon will disappear from view for more than an hour. Eastern viewers in North America will want to look skyward around 1:15 AM ET.

The first news Tuesday will likely arrive from the Asia-Pacific region, as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) produces its latest monetary policy statement. Expectations are for the BOJ to keep current measures unchanged and rates steady. Back home, the US government will produce some of the first data from the 2010 census. Also, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is scheduled to vote on net neutrality.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) will produce its latest report. Last week's data covering the period ended December 11 showed same-store sales increased 0.8% week-to-week, and 3.1% year-over-year. Redbook reported sales increased 2.5% year-to-year for the same period. This latest data will cover the period ended December 18, which includes last Saturday, an important day for shopping (final weekend ahead of Christmas).

Alliant Energy (NYSE: LNT) will make its guidance announcement. Ametek (NYSE: AME) will split its shares 3-for-2 Tuesday, and IPO lockup curbs conclude for Fabrinet (NYSE: FN). The EPS schedule highlights reports from Nike (NYSE: NKE), Carnival (NYSE: CCL), Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS), ConAgra (NYSE: CAG), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), CarMax (NYSE: KMX), Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC), CPI Corp. (NYSE: CPY), Emcore (Nasdaq: EMKR), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), FSI International (Nasdaq: FSII), Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV), Progress Software (Nasdaq: PRGS), Rodobo (Nasdaq: RDBO) and TIBCO Software (Nasdaq: TIBX).

Wednesday

Housing data dominates Wednesday, starting with the early morning release from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA reported last week for the period ending December 10. Mortgage activity, based on the Market Composite Index, decreased 2.3% in that period. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 5.0%, while the Refinance Index slipped 0.7%. The culprit behind the deterioration here was the well-publicized increase in long rates and mortgage rates, with the average contracted rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages rising to 4.84%, from 4.66%.

At 10:00 AM, you will want to attune yourself to the National Association of Realtors' release of the Existing Home Sales data for November. Economists expect the pace of sales to have improved through the month, to an annual rate of 4.75 million. In October, the pace of sales deteriorated by 2.2%, to 4.43 million. Housing inventory was marked at 10.5 months. If the rate of sales improved in November, you should expect inventory to improve as well.

Also at 10:00, look for the FHFA House Price Index. This index measures only Fannie and Freddie sponsored deals, and so it is incomplete. We rather direct you to the pricing data from within the NAR's report at the same hour.

At 8:30 AM ET, before the housing data releases, catch the final reporting of third quarter gross domestic product. Economists expect a significant upgrade here, to a 3.0% rate of growth. At last check, Q3 GDP was measured at +2.5%. Corporate Profits are also reported with the GDP data.

Catch the EIA's Petroleum Status report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week's report, which covered the period ended December 10, showed crude oil inventory fell by 9.9 million barrels. Inventory still held above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline stores increased by 0.8 million barrels last week, and are within the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

On the overseas wire, look for news from Greece. The Greek Parliament will have a budget vote.

The corporate wire highlights Toyota's (NYSE: TM) introduction of its redesigned Vitz subcompact car. The corporate EPS wire keys on housing and related stocks, with reports from Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY). Also look for news from Walgreens (NYSE: WAG), American Greetings (NYSE: AM), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Arrowhead Research (Nasdaq: ARWR), China Direct (Nasdaq: CDII), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Lindsay (NYSE: LNN), Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) and Navistar (NYSE: NAV).

Thursday

A slew of reports litter Thursday's slate, due to the holiday Friday. Markets are closed in Japan for the Emperor's birthday. In the States, fixed income markets close at 2:00 PM ET.

The Personal Income and Consumption Report for the month of November, due for release at 8:30 AM ET, is perhaps the most important report of the day. Investors will be watching how well Consumer Spending did through the important period. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for Personal Spending to have increased 0.5% month-to-month, which would compare against the 0.4% increase in the prior period. Personal Income is significantly less important to investors, but economists will look for a 0.2% increase there. The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge and an important cog in its monetary policy setting, the Core PCE Price Index, is seen increasing 0.1% in November.

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) are expected to have decreased 1.0% in November, based on Bloomberg's survey of economists. This would compare against the 3.4% decrease marked last period. Remember that Durable Goods Orders swing wildly and are expected by economists to offer some surprise, even when excluding the pricey transportation sector.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims improved again last week, to 420K for the week ended December 11. The four-week moving average extended its streak of improvement to six consecutive weeks, and marked 422,750. The market would appreciate a further reduction this week, should it materialize.

At 9:55 AM, look for the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index release. Economists expect sentiment to gain to 75.0, from the 74.2 early December take. This too should also play an important role in the direction of stocks, while reported at the midnight hour of holiday shopping.

At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for the month of November will complement the Existing Home Sales data from earlier in the week. Economists forecast the annual pace of New Home Sales will have gained to 300K, up from 283K at last check. Supply increased to 8.6 months due to the slowing of the pace of sales in October. Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and friends are benefitting.

The EIA reports on Natural Gas Inventory at 10:30 AM ET. Last week's report covering the period ended December 10 showed Natural Gas stocks declined by 164 Bcf. This placed inventory below last year's level, but above the five-year average mark.

Thursday's corporate wire highlights the EPS report of Subaye Inc. (Nasdaq: SBAY), and also the report of Asahi Co. Ltd. Osaka (Tokyo: 333300.T).

Friday

Markets are closed on Christmas Eve across the Americas and Europe, as well as in Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia and most of the world. Markets are open in Japan. Christmas Eve also marks the deadline for Iraq to form a government.

Pray the Lord and the US government keeps us safe this concerning holiday season. Merry Christmas and peace to all!

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.