Stock Market Advance Faces Stiff Challenge from Janet Yellen Later Today

Stocks were indicating a sharply higher start for Wednesday, which marks the close of September and the calendar quarter. However, an afternoon address by Fed Chair Yellen threatens to remind us of one of our greatest stumbling blocks. I look for equities to possibly lose some of their apparent confidence as we approach the close of the day and anticipate further worrisome issues to follow. See today's report on the stock market here.

Sector Security	09-30-15 Premarket
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+1.3%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+1.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+1.5%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+1.1%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)	+2.2%
iShares China Large Cap (NYSE: FXI)	+2.3%
iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX)	-4.8%
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (NYSE: IBB)	+2.5%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	+1.2%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+0.0%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK)	-0.03%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Prices Today – Euro Area Deflation & Janet Yellen Pose Threat but for How Long?

Spot Gold Price at Kitco.com

A double dose of trouble threatens gold prices today, as euro-area inflation data came in soft this morning and Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak later this afternoon. Each of the two factors serves dollar strength, which is threatening to gold price appreciation. But after close study of the data and realization of other issues, we are suspicious of the staying power of the factors against gold. See the full report on today's gold prices here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-29-15 Close
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.4%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	-0.4%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	-0.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.2%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+0.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+0.7%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+0.2%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+1.5%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	-0.5%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-1.6%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	-0.1%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	-0.8%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+0.3%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	+0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Dudley Did Us in on Monday

New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley was the voice of reason during the early days of the market correction. His voicing of concern about global economic issues and market volatility served to stabilize stocks in August. However, on Monday he sounded a little different. In his interview with the Wall Street Journal Dudley shared his expectation that a Fed rate hike will likely still occur sometime this year. The market environment is just not conducive to that kind of talk at the moment, and so I believe the statement played a critical role in further destabilizing stocks. See the full report on Dudley's impact.

Sector Security	Tuesday 09-29-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.04%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.4%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.7%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.05%
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: HEDJ)	+0.4%
iShares China Large Cap (NYSE: FXI)	-0.1%
iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX)	+0.1%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+0.6%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold Rally Cut at the Knees but it Still has Legs

When the Federal Reserve Chairperson addressed a group in Massachusetts Thursday evening she reiterated the message of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of a week prior. The threat of an October interest rate action was thus reinforced, and the dollar rebounded. In effect, Janet Yellen offset the impact of the passing of ECB events last week without any new action by the European Central Bank, which had stabilized the euro versus the dollar and given gold lift. I still expect intensification of government shutdown concern this coming week and beyond to weigh on the dollar, and also for the October Fed meeting to pass without rate action, giving gold support. The risk to this view is that the Fed raises rates in October, which I believe would be a temporary setback for gold that could run into 2016 until investors begin to again anticipate European and global recovery and a normalizing dollar. If the Fed refrains from action in October, as I expect it should, precious metals prices should muster a run higher into November before again facing a Fed driven challenge. Long-term metals investors can expect a more sustainable upward trajectory to start in 2016 (likely second half), when the ECB is likely ready to end its quantitative easing program or if some other unforeseen factor comes against dollar strength. See the report on gold here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-25-15
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.6%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	-0.5%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	-0.6%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	-02%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	-0.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	-1.7%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	-2.3%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	-4.0%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	-1.0%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	-2.0%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+0.2%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	-0.8%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	-5.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Pro Investor Who Predicted Today's Turn in Gold Says it Goes Higher from Here

While hoping followers didn’t miss our call that Thursday (post ECB) would mark a good entry point for gold ownership, we’re reiterating today that gold is good to go higher from here. The buildup to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting drove the euro lower versus the dollar as expected and was a setback for gold. However, yesterday we got a hint in his testimony that Draghi would not add to the ECB’s extraordinary measures today and so gold got clearance to turn upward. Today the ECB did not further act, and the dollar is giving way with gold gaining sharply. I’m suggesting gold goes higher from here on continued dollar decline and increasing concern about the U.S. government shutdown next week. Increasing speculation about the Fed holding off on rate action in October will also serve gold. Thus, gold is good to go higher from here. See the full bullish report on gold here.

Precious Metal Relative	09-24-15 Midday
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+2.3%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	+2.4%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	+2.3%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+2.2%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+2.4%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+6.0%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+4.7%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+16.4%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	+6.3%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	+5.5%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+6.6%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+5.0%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	+7.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

When Stocks Should Turn Higher

Investors were a bit confused by the immediate action in stocks after the Fed meeting last week. Most financial media I watched since has only made matters worse by misinterpreting the catalyst behind the market’s reversal after it marked intraday highs last Thursday. Now, based on statements of the Fed Chair and other Fed members, it appears the Fed itself may be confused as to how markets perceive its actions. Friends, stocks are not burdened today by the fact that the Fed did not raise interest rates, but rather by their leaving October on the table and indicating a rate hike could occur at almost any moment. As a result, uncertainty remains for this market until the next Fed meeting in October. Between then and now, we should expect to see volatility exacerbated by a likely shutdown of the American government on budget matters and threatening data from overseas. Still, from mid-October or after the government problem is resolved, the market will also find a better environment due to a shift in seasonal capital flows. As a result, I anticipate stocks will rally from sometime in October through November well enough to return paper losses to investors who had not sold stocks during the crisis. See our full stock market outlook report here.

Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG, Nasdaq: GOOGL), GE (NYSE: GE), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), Citigroup (NYSE: C). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. Kaminis is long SPY. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Investors Need to Understand this About Durable Goods Orders

After the Durable Goods Orders data was reported this morning, I noticed a notable downshift in S&P 500 futures. Investors are quick to perceive bad news where it may not necessarily be these days. This data point was expected to be bad on the headline, and it was, but when excluding transportation it was relatively unchanged though still short of expectations. Now transportation does include rail, and rail is integrally tied to the energy industry today, so perhaps there is a fire after all. It all depends on how low you anticipate energy prices to fall and for how long. And it also depends on how deep you expect the damage to reach, because as of today, a good portion of our economy is still benefiting from lower energy prices. Low oil prices may be bad for the energy sector and portions of manufacturing but it’s still probably a net push or positive for the overall American economy. A slowing China, volatile Europe and frenzied emerging markets along with questionable export environment, however, exacerbate concern. Still, the Fed remains accommodative; we just wish they would say so a little more clearly. Now let’s examine the important takeaways from today’s Durables data. See the full report on Durable Goods Orders here.

Market Sector Security	09-24-15 Open
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-1.1%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-1.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.8%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.0%
iPath S&P 500 ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+5.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Gold Outlook

A golden path has just been paved for gold investors, but it is full of obstacles. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off on interest rate liftoff, with all indications pointing toward non-action at least until December and possibly longer in my opinion, is highly supportive to gold (NYSE: GLD). Gold would be poised to move higher as a result of the removal of the dollar block against it. (article authored 9-21) But be careful betting on it at the start of this week, as anticipation of potential ECB action could set a short-term speed bump. I see hope in ECB action eventually finding letdown, and gold benefiting again from that and intensifying concern about a potential government shutdown in the U.S. Thereafter, though, investors will begin propping up the dollar and penalizing gold on October Fed meeting worry. The next month, therefore, is a complex one for gold. See the full report on the gold outlook here.

Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Fed Meeting Preview – My Take

There is a great deal of uncertainty around this Fed rate decision, and it may not only be in the marketplace. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) itself will probably show division when it comes to its conclusion today. I think the market’s confusion was evident by the last two days of trading, which I discuss in more detail herein. Markets are unsure for good reason, given previous Fed forecasts and the outside influences upon the two Fed mandates of managing monetary policy for employment and inflation. While everything is on the table today, it should be a good day for stocks given what we have priced in already – I think. Obviously, everything depends on what the Fed actually says and does. It’s quite ironic that this Fed, which has made such strides toward transparency, finds itself in such a confused situation. See our full Fed meeting preview here.

Sector Security	Wednesday 09-16-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.85%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.84%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.56%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.82%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.28%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+1.3%
iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond (NYSE: TLT)	-0.38%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why Gold Soared & What's Next

The market wire was buzzing Wednesday with regard to the moves in oil and gold prices. Each commodity moved sharply and partly for one common reason. With regard to gold, the day’s price move was the largest in a month, since the stock market correction in August. But stocks were higher as well, so then what was the catalyst? Well, inflation was seriously muted in the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. If price increase is nonexistent, then the Fed has all the more reason to hold off on a rate hike Thursday. No rate hike means the dollar likely gives up ground, which serves both oil and gold prices. Now, if the Fed does go ahead and acts on interest rates Thursday, then Wednesday’s gain in gold should be immediately erased, but that’s not what I’m looking for. See the full report on gold here. 

Precious Metals Securities	Wednesday 09-16-15
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+1.3%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)	+1.3%
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)	+1.4%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+3.3%
ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)	+3.2%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+5.9%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)	+5.8%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)	+16%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X (NYSE: DUST)	-17%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)	+6.1%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)	+5.7%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)	+7.2%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)	+7.1%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)	-6.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stocks Should Recover Now - Buy the SPY ETF

When I authored my warnings about market correction in early to mid-August, I also indicated what the cure for stocks would eventually be. One of those factors appears to be about ready to help out, and that is clarification from the Fed. No matter what happens Thursday afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will provide some clarity to investors. Stocks should benefit from the removal of some uncertainty, and I see immediate upside of 2.5% to 5.0% probable for the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) post the Fed meeting. But any gains and the length of duration of upward direction will depend on the specifics of what the Fed does and says. The longer term for stocks and the SPY will continue to depend on the U.S. economy, energy sector issues, emerging market implications, seasonal capital flow factors and the Fed path and accuracy moving forward. See the full report on the stock market and the SPY ETF here. This article may also interest SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM), Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI).

Kaminis is Long SPY. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

We Recommended VXX at $16 Pre-Correction & it Rose 97% in 2 Weeks

In the first half of August before the market correction I vehemently warned investors to: raise cash levels; avoid the temptation to purchase dips in the market; and to buy the iPath S&P 500 ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) at approximately $16. The stock market corrected shortly after my recommendation, with the investors in the VXX having a best case gain measuring 97% if sold at $31.48 intraday on September 1st. I closed my initial VXX long position (call options) during the correction in August at a significant profit. As I produced this report, the VXX security traded at approximately $24 and still offered a 50% profit to early stakeholders who might still be holding the security. Given the greater likelihood of Fed inaction versus the probability of action this week, and as I anticipate a higher likelihood of a market rise on such news than the possibility of decline, I’m suggesting investors still holding the VXX sell the security and take profits now if they have not already done so. The VXX should fall swiftly in the event of a change in market sentiment to the positive. If you would like to keep some hedge in place due to an expectation for a Fed surprise, I suggest doing so with a much smaller stake and still recommend taking your cost and a good deal of your profits out of the VXX now if you have not already done so. See the full report on the VXX security here. In case you missed it, I predicted the market correction. 

Article also interests investors in ProShares Ultra VIX ST Futures (NYSE: UVXY), VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX (NYSE: TVIX), VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST (NYSE: XIV), VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX MT (NYSE: ZIV), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) and SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Gold is a Responsible Hedge at Times of Terror Risk

Gold and relative securities are a responsible hedge now against dollar exposure because of the risk of terrorism around the September 11 memorial and also on the possibility that the Federal Reserve refrains from rate action. Either would likely harm dollar strength and lift gold prices higher.

FBI Director James Comey said at an intelligence community conference Thursday: “We’ve long found, as you know with al Qaeda, an organization trying to motivate acts in association with that date,” he said. “And we’ve seen some focus on date in [the Islamic State’s] efforts to motivate violence in the homeland.”

See the full report on gold and terrorism risk here. 

Precious Metal Relative

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)

ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust (NYSE: SGOL)

iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)

ETFS Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR)

Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)

Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)

Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)

Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)

Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.