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Friday, October 31, 2014

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) Report

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) reported an EPS blowout against Wall Street expectations. However, its outlook for 2015 disappointed investors, as the shares traded down 7% after the report. So what are investors to do with CMG shares now? Given the company’s excellent execution and the fact that it is in the right spot of the consumers’ stomach in America, it deserves a favorable perspective. In terms of valuation, I do not see it as an expensive idea against what are apparently conservative estimates. Chipotle still has to prove itself internationally, but markets are available for it similar to the U.S. market. I see risks around Ebola, should the global situation deteriorate, due to the company’s consumer focus and what fear may come. It’s wise to keep the radar attuned here, and for all the perhaps at risk names with consumer exposure and potentially sensitive valuations. I am not concerned, however, about global economic growth for CMG, as its menu price point is not relatively expensive. Also, the consumer trends that serve it in the U.S., regarding the increasingly health conscience society, exist in its next growth markets as well. Thus, aggressive and/or diversified investors, and those portfolios where restaurant exposure is needed, can consider adding Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) shares, especially as we enter December and exit the current dynamic capital flow environment. For more, see my report on CMG at Seeking Alpha.

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Thursday, October 30, 2014

Real Estate Recovery is A-Okay

We received evidence last week that the real estate recovery is intact. Both existing home sales and new home sales data showed steady activity atop historical trend lines. The iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR) rose throughout the week, along with other real estate relative securities.

Real Estate Relative Security
Week Ended 10-24-14
iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)
+3.2%
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB)
+4.8%
MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG)
+0.1%
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
+3.1%
Market Vectors Mortgage REIT (NYSE: MORT)
+1.2%
PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM)
+7.2%
AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB)
+1.2%

Do not buy into the hype about housing’s supposed impending second demise. The real estate market has just been shown to be improving, and fertile ground remains for future growth. See my latest report on Real Estate here.

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Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold to Sink 11% to 20%

Gold enthusiasts recently got a reprieve on the metal currency’s slide versus dollar strength. The emergence of Ebola in the United States caused some to question the protection of the dollar against global woes and to reconsider gold. However, Ebola fear is fading and the FOMC event today should remind investors of the Fed’s rate plans and reinvigorate the dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) has stabilized lately on what I see as market greed and hope. However, this event could push gold to break into new 52-week low territory, and I see the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) dropping a further 11% or more in 2014 from its current trade. Obviously, this statement is qualified on the assumption of no significant Ebola outbreak or terrorism in the U.S. See more about my view for gold here.


GLD Peers
YTD
TTM
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+1.7%
-9.0%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
-2.8%
-22.6%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)
-29.4%
-62.8%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
-11.9%
-23.9%


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