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Thursday, August 21, 2014

TODAY’S MARKET: Fearful of Fed Despite Economic Windfall

dollar
Stocks were higher Thursday, but curiously, not by much considering the astounding economic calendar. The day was full of economic news, and each and every tidbit of it was tasty. However, there’s one thing holding back the rally that should have ensued; it’s the fact that Janet Yellen is speaking tomorrow at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The market is concerned that she could discuss the recently strong economic data flow, and spur concern about a faster Fed rate of action against potential inflation. Though, she will almost certainly also note geopolitical concerns, which would serve stocks.

For more discussion on the day’s action, please see The Mighty Economy Feeds the Ghost Traders Fear Most.

U.S. Markets

Market ETF
08-21-14 Intra
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.3%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+0.4%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.1%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
-1.3%
iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)
+0.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
+1.0%
PowerShares DB US$  Bullish (NYSE: UUP)
-0.1%
PIMCO Total Return ETF (NYSE: BOND)
+0.1%

Make no mistake about it; despite the caution I see in stocks today, the S&P 500 has marked a new historical high. It is meaningful, therefore, nonetheless.

International Markets

EUROPE
%
ASIA/PACIFIC
%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)
+0.6%
Precidian MAXIS Nikkei (NYSE: NKY)
+0.6%
iShares MSCI UK (NYSE: EWU)
+0.0%
SPDR S&P China (NYSE: GXC)
-1.2%
iShares MSCI France (NYSE: EWQ)
+1.3%
iShares Asia 50 (NYSE: AIA)
-1.1%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)
+0.8%
iShares MSCI S. Korea (NYSE: EWY)
-1.3%
Global X FTSE Greece (NYSE: GREK)
+1.4%
iPath MSCI India (NYSE: INP)
+0.1%

No Russian tanks rolling and another day to forget about the ever present risk, so stocks rose in Europe. Plus, ECB Chief Draghi speaks at Jackson Hole tomorrow along with Yellen, and he is more likely to show dovishness.

Economic Data

THURSDAY’S ECONOMIC REPORTS

Economic Data Point
Prior
Exp.
Actual
+0.6% (R)
+0.6%
+0.9%
56.3

58.0
312K (R)
300K
298K
+78 bcf

+88 bcf
5.03 M (R)
5.00 M
5.15 M
23.9
20.0
28.0
NABE Studies Crisis in Ukraine Impact



 -‘R’ signifies revision

From the critical Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) result through the rest of the economic data slate today, the news was really good. All of the latest results beat expectations and showed improvement versus the prior year, and the gain in the LEI was astounding considering it matched against a revised higher prior figure. Plus, the latest housing news simply built upon the slew of good news on the sector this week. But Real Estate Investors have a Brief Window of Opportunity now.

Commodity Markets

United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
+1.0%
iPath SP Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
+1.0%
U.S. Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)
+1.0%
U.S. Gasoline (NYSE: UGA)
+0.6%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
-1.3%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
-2.6%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
-0.3%
iPath DJ UBS Industrial Metals (NYSE: JJM)
-0.1%
Teucrium Corn ETF (NYSE: CORN)
+0.2%
Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE: WEAT)
+0.1%
Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE: SOYB)
+0.2%
iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa (NYSE: NIB)
-0.7%
iPath DJ-UBS Sugar (NYSE: SGG)
+1.8%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.
+0.1%
CME Lumber
-0.0%
CME Live Cattle
+0.2%

With the dollar weakening today, economy booming, and ISIS killing Americans, the energy sector rebounded significantly. Gold is down because Vladimir Putin is nowhere to be found, but don’t count him out just yet. Let’s just shuffle Russia risk to the side for now, as Putin is weighing his options, if not planning the demise of global civility.

EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
THURSDAY

58.com
Nasdaq: WUBA
Accuray
Nasdaq: ARAY
Aeropostale
NYSE: ARO
Aviat Networks
Nasdaq: AVNW
Bon-Ton Stores
Nasdaq: BONT
Brocade Communications
Nasdaq: BRCD
Buckle
NYSE: BKE
Cato Corp.
Nasdaq: CATO
Children’s Place
Nasdaq: PLCE
Cyberonics
Nasdaq: CYBX
Dollar Tree
Nasdaq: DLTR
Doral Financial
NYSE: DRL
Eros International
Nasdaq: EROS
Fresh Market
NYSE: TFM
GameStop
NYSE: GME
Gap
NYSE: GPS
Hormel Foods
NYSE: HRL
Intuit
Nasdaq: INTU
Kirkland’s
Nasdaq: KIRK
Lancaster Colony
Nasdaq: LANC
Lantronix
Nasdaq: LTRX
LSI Industries
Nasdaq: LYTS
Marvell Technology
Nasdaq: MRVL
Mentor Graphics
Nasdaq: MENT
Navios Maritime
NYSE: NM
New York & Co.
NYSE: NWY
Nordson
Nasdaq: NDSN
Patterson Cos.
Nasdaq: PDCO
Perry Ellis
Nasdaq: PERY
Ross Stores
Nasdaq: ROSS
Salesforce.com
NYSE: CRM
ScanSource
Nasdaq: SCSC
Sears
Nasdaq: SHLD
Stage Stores
NYSE: SSI
Stein Mart
Nasdaq: SMRT
Toro
NYSE: TTC
Trans World Entertainment
Nasdaq: TWMC
Tuesday Morning
Nasdaq: TUES

The corporate wire had a big enough group of names reporting, with a highlight on another quarter of cash burning at Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD). I’m currently working on an important stock report covering a company that reported this week, so you’ll want to join my email list at the blog to hear about it when it’s published.

TODAY’S MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
BIGGEST GAINERS
% Gain
Heart Biologics (Nasdaq: HTBX)
+39%
Digital Ally (Nasdaq: DGLY)
+33%
China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC)
+27%
EveryWare (Nasdaq: EVRY)
+22%
Andatee China Marine Fuel Svcs. (Nasdaq: AMCF)
+16%
America’s Car-Mart (Nasdaq: CRMT)
+16%
GeoMet (Nasdaq: GMETP)
+16%
CBD Energy (Nasdaq: CBDE)
+14%
Advaxis (Nasdaq: ADXS)
+15%
e-Future Information Technologies
+14%
BIGGEST LOSERS
% Drop
Kindred Biosciences (NYSE: KIN)
-27%
Ampio Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMPE)
-23%
Boston Private Financial (Nasdaq: BPFHW)
-17%
Tofutti Brands (NYSE: TOF)
-14%
Cytori Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CYTX)
-10%
T2 Biosystems (Nasdaq: TTOO)
-11%
Autohome (Nasdaq: ATHM)
-8%
Pointer Telocation (Nasdaq: PNTR)
-10%
58.com (Nasdaq: WUBA)
-9%
IFM Investments (NYSE: CTC)
-8%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

geopolitical

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Wednesday, August 20, 2014

TODAY'S MARKET: Expect a Technical Test of Old High

bulls versus bears
The day ahead for the S&P 500 is one that appeared to be clear of obstacles, so passive investment interests in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) would seem set to strike higher. However, at 6:30 AM ET when I surveyed the wire, S&P 500 futures were fractionally lower and volatility measures like the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) was higher in premarket trading by 1.1%. My resulting survey of the geopolitical wire found nothing that seemed especially threatening to stocks this morning, though the news of an Islamic State beheading of an American journalist raised my blood pressure and led to a headache from the clenching of my teeth in anger. Also, fighting resumed in Israel, and Ukraine continues to bear down on rebels in Russian separatist held strongholds. You know, it’s the usual ‘end of world’ sort of terror we’ve grown accustomed to, including ebola news, but nothing especially extraordinary to affect stocks in these extraordinary times. Europe was lower, but since when does the U.S. take lead from European markets? Not today anyway. So I’m going to go ahead and call this a technical test, which seems to be also supported by the 6-month chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) here. Therefore, it would appear that we are our own worst enemy today.

6 month spy chart
6-monthChart of SPY ETF at Yahoo


International Markets (Premarket US)

EUROPE
%
ASIA/PACIFIC
%
iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV)
NA%
Japan Equity (NYSE: JEQ)
NA%
WisdomTree UK (Nasdaq: DXPS)
NA%
China Fund (NYSE: CHN)
NA%
Societe Generale ADR (OTC: SCGLY)
NA%
Asia Tigers (NYSE: GRR)
NA%
WisdomTree Germany (Nasdaq: DXGE)
NA%
Korea Equity (NYSE: KEF)
NA%
National Bank Greece (NYSE: NBG)
NA%
India Fund (NYSE: IFN)
NA%

US Market

Market ETF
08-20-14 Premarket
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)
NA%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)
NA%
Fidelity NASDAQ  ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)
NA%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)
NA%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)
NA%
ProShares Ultra Oil (NYSE: UCO)
NA%
WisdomTree US$  Bullish (NYSE: USDU)
NA%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)
NA%

The economic report schedule is especially light today, though including the shadow of the recent Fed meeting. The FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, and always carry the risk of revealing something we do not want to know about how the Fed discussed important matters related to its plans for interest rates. Out of sight, out of mind is kind of the way traders would like it, but the Fed will be in our face today, haunting us with this shadow of a meeting now past.

Economic Data Point
Prior
WEDNESDAY

-2.7%

-Crude Oil Inventory
+1.4 MB
-Gasoline Inventory
-1.2 MB


Otherwise, the regular Mortgage Application Data is due. The MBA’s report on applications has not been especially fiery lately, though housing stocks have been. That is thanks to two strong data measures showing builders are really happy these days and that housing starts are on the rise. I recently asked if builders had any right to be popping corks and toasting the future given the Fed’s rate outlook for a creeping higher Fed Funds Rate sometime in 2015; I’m on the record calling for it in the first quarter of 2015, which is too soon for unsettled market stomachs. Meanwhile, the SPDR Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) is up 3.9% over the last two trading sessions. You better check yourself before you wreck yourself homebuilders, and maybe that is exactly what is happening today for stocks broadly speaking as well.

Commodities (Premarket)

United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
-0.7%
iPath SP Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
NA%
U.S. Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)
NA%
U.S. Gasoline (NYSE: UGA)
NA%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
NA%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
NA%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
NA%
iPath DJ UBS Industrial Metals (NYSE: JJM)
NA%
Teucrium Corn ETF (NYSE: CORN)
NA%
Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE: WEAT)
NA%
Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE: SOYB)
NA%
iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa (NYSE: NIB)
NA%
iPath DJ-UBS Sugar (NYSE: SGG)
NA%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.
NA%
CME Lumber
NA%
CME Live Cattle
-0.7%

The EIA’s Petroleum Status Report should garner a ton of attention today, given the catalysts and potential catalysts for volatile energy prices in play today. Let’s list them shall we?


  • European economic issues could weigh on demand
  • Rub-off from the EU to the Far East and the U.S. is possible
  • A radical group of terrorists united under a black flag seems capable of threatening long standing nations in the oil rich Middle East
  • Energy rich Russia, which supplies Europe, is acting aggressively toward Ukraine sovereign territory, and an economic war seems to be in progress
  • Iran is still developing nuclear energy and/or weapons


If I’ve forgotten anything, please feel free to remind and frighten us all via the comment tab below. Oil prices have been weakening, in my opinion on the dollar strength resulting from the flight to quality arising from Ukraine / Russia fear. The iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR Index (NYSE: OIL) is markedly lower of late as the dollar buys more of the commodity. I know, I know, domestic energy supply gut as well needs to be mentioned.

6 month oil chart


The earnings front is serving as a positive driver for the market these days, with Home Depot (NYSE: HD) supporting the S&P 500 yesterday on its solid EPS report. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) excitement has provided uplift as well, as the heavyweight stock surges to highs on anticipation of new products. Today’s corporate drivers show Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) down in the premarket after reporting its results, but traders will call out company specifics given the latest housing data and HD report, so Lowe’s is no broader threat to stocks today. Surveying my weekly accounting of events, we see that a handful of companies are scheduled to report today, including Target (NYSE: TGT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) , but none of them are relevant to the broader market trade today in my view.

EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
WEDNESDAY

America’s Car-Mart
Nasdaq: CRMT
American Eagle Outfitters
NYSE: AEO
Astro-Med
Nasdaq: ALOT
CACI Int’l
Nasdaq: CACI
Citi Trends
Nasdaq: CTRN
Eaton Vance
NYSE: EV
Eaton Vance Senior Income Trust
NYSE: EVF
GasLog
Nasdaq: GLOG
Hain Celestial
Nasdaq: HAIN
Hewlett-Packard
NYSE: HPQ
International Rectifier
NYSE: IRF
J.M. Smucker
NYSE: SJM
L Brands
NYSE: LB
Lowe’s Cos.
NYSE: LOW
Madison Square Garden
NYSE: MSG
PetSmart
Nasdaq: PETM
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen
Nasdaq: PLKI
Raven Industries
Nasdaq: RAVN
Semtech
Nasdaq: SMTC
Staples
Nasdaq: SPLS
Synopsys
Nasdaq: SNPS
Target
NYSE: TGT
ValueVision Media
Nasdaq: VVTV

YESTERDAY’S MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
BIGGEST GAINERS
% Gain
Newcastle Investments (NYSE: NCT)
+210%
Digital Ally (Nasdaq: DGLY)
+94%
China HGS Real Estate (Nasdaq: HGSH)
+53%
Aquasition (NYSE: AQU)
+25%
Skilled Healthcare (NYSE: SKH)
+20%
Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO)
+19%
Vringo (Nasdaq: VRNG)
+19%
American Woodmark (Nasdaq: AMWD)
+18%
Salix Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SLXP)
+16%
Cover-All Technologies (Nasdaq: COVR)
+11%
BIGGEST LOSERS
% Drop
Elizabeth Arden (Nasdaq: RDEN)
-23%
Oncothyreon (Nasdaq: ONTY)
-17%
Signal Genetics (Nasdaq: SGNL)
-13%
Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD)
-12%
Broadway Financial (Nasdaq: BYFC)
-11%
Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE)
-11%
Jumei International (Nasdaq: JMEI)
-11%
Quotient (Nasdaq: QTNT)
-6%
Achaogen (Nasdaq: AKAO)
-11%
Pacific Booker (NYSE: PBM)
-9%

In conclusion, I think the coast is clear for a successful test of the historical high here for the S&P 500, but the market will worry intraday about geopolitical issues, Thursday’s Leading Economic Indicators data and Janet Yellen’s keynote speech scheduled for Friday’s Jackson Hole event. However, I see no threat from any of these issues, save the ever present danger from Russia’s Putin in Ukraine. So, with an eye on Donetsk, you’re probably free to buy the SPY on the dip today in anticipation of good news Thursday and Friday. Enjoy, and feel free to follow along for more fodder from this freelancer.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek store

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