A Hurdle for Stocks Friday

Friday’s economic data schedule offers a hurdle to overcome. Retail sales are due for November, as is a consumer sentiment measure. If the data shows consumer spending was impacted by intensifying terrorism concerns last month, it could raise alarm about the economically critical fourth quarter. Stocks, which are already looking ultra-sensitive a week ahead of the expected Fed rate hike, could drop momentarily. If the news is in line with expectations a hurdle will have been cleared and I would expect equities to march higher. Keep your eye on the retail sales report for guidance, but if stocks drop too far, you may want to be a buyer at deeper value anyway. Seasonal factors are shifting in favor of stocks now and Santa Claus (the rally) is likely still coming to town. See the full report on the hurdle for stocks.

Sector Security	Nov. to Dec. 10
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	Unchanged
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	Unchanged
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.1%
SPDR S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT)	-3.5%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY)	-1.3%
Macy’s (NYSE: M)	-26%
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)	+4.9%
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN)	+5.8%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

The Stinking Media Misled Investors Again - Retail Sales Were Strong!

The media got it wrong from the very moment the data was released Friday morning. From the immediate television review of the release I watched to the multiple articles written by reporters on the subject, the October Retail Sales Report was mostly misreported. Retail sales were not bad at all in October; in fact, they met economists’ expectations when weeding out the volatile swing lower in gasoline prices (a good thing for consumers). Unfortunately, many concerned investors apparently reacted to the fast-talking media and sold off stocks, likely partly due to the reporting. That is because about the worst thing that can happen to stocks is for the economy to fall toward recession and this data point was supposed to be presenting the specter of such risk. It would be far worse than a Fed rate hike, and it likely helped stocks significantly lower on Friday. Fortunately, the truth is retail sales were healthy in October. See the full report on how the stinking media screwed over investors again here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. This article should interest investors in The New York Times (NYSE: NYT), Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI), A.H. Belo (NYSE: AHC), Daily Journal (NYSE: DJCO), Journal Communications (NYSE: JRN), Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE), Media General (NYSE: MEG), E.W. Scripps (NYSE: SSP), McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI), The Washington Post (NYSE: WPO), Dex One (Nasdaq: DEXO), Martha Stewart Living (NYSE: MSO), Meredith (NYSE: MDP), Private Media (Nasdaq: PRVT), Reed Elsevier (NYSE: ENL), Reed Elsevier Plc (NYSE: RUK), Dolan Co. (NYSE: DN), Disney (NYSE: DIS), DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA), Cinemark Holdings (NYSE: CNK), Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC), RealD (NYSE: RLD), Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), Rentrak (Nasdaq: RENT), Carmike Cinemas (Nasdaq: CKEC), LYFE Communications (OTC: LYFE.OB), New Frontier Media (Nasdaq: NOOF), Public Media Works (OTC: PUBM.OB), Independent Film Development (OTC: IFLM.OB), Point 360 (Nasdaq: PTSX), Seven Arts Pictures (Nasdaq: SAPX), Affinity Medianetworks (OTC: AFFW.OB), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWSA), Vivendi (Paris: VIV.PA), Liberty Starz Group (Nasdaq: LSTZA), McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP), Pearson Plc (NYSE: PSO), John Wiley & Sons (NYSE: JW-A, NYSE: JW-B), Scholastic (Nasdaq: SCHL), Courier (Nasdaq: CRRC), Noah Education (NYSE: NED), Peoples Educational Holdings (Nasdaq: PEDH), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Books-A-Million (Nasdaq: BAMM).

Why the Jobs Report has been Volatile

I expect investors and maybe some economists are wondering why the monthly Employment Situation Report data has been so volatile lately. Nonfarm payrolls have varied significantly recently. The data makes for uncertainty in securities markets, which are now attempting to discern what the Federal Reserve might decide to do in December. However, I believe the cause of the variance has a simple explanation. See the full report on jobs here.

Month	Nonfarm Payrolls
October	+271
September	+137
August	+153
July	+245

Labor & Business Services Stocks

Robert Half (NYSE: RHI)

Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY)

Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW)

Manpower (NYSE: MAN)

51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS)

Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX)

Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC)

TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI)

Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX)

Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA)

CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI)

Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN)

On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN)

AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS)

Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI)

Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP)

StarTek (NYSE: SRT)

RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT)

VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP)

American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB)

Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB)

iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB)

St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB)

General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB)

Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB)

TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF)

Stratum (OTC: STTH.PK)

Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB)

Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Irresponsible Journalists Misread the China Trade Data - It's Fantastic News

When the China trade data was first reported last evening in China Yuan currency denominated terms, China shares showed little reaction, if not a positive bias considering the prior day’s sharp gains. Yet, before sunrise in the U.S. this morning, and given the headlines I’ve read so far, equity index futures were indicating today’s lower open in the U.S. That should not be the case, given that the news out of China was actually somewhat positive. If the market softness continues to exist after the open, I’m suggesting investors take advantage of what I see as erroneous softness in stocks and buy equities. Coming soon, this week’s inflation indication from CPI data should be soft (another positive), giving the U.S. Federal Reserve absolutely no reason to move rates in October considering all issues. China is stabilizing and emerging markets will mend before long with rising commodity prices. Equities should be headed toward old highs now and the S&P 500 Index to 2050 to 2080 near term, and over 2100 after the October Fed meeting (I expect no rate action). See my full China Trade Report here. 

Asian Indices	10-13-15	Investible Via
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300	-0.1%	Direxion Dly CSI 300 2X (NYSE: CHAU) – levered
Hang Seng	-0.6%	iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI) – HK traded
Nikkei 225	-1.1%	iShares MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWJ)
KOSPI (S. Korea)	-0.1%	iShares MSCI S. Korea (NYSE: EWY)
S&P BSE SENSEX (India)	-0.2%	iShares India 50 (Nasdaq: INDY)
S&P ASX 200 (Australia)	-0.6%	iShares MSCI Australia (NYSE: EWA)
Broad Asia		iShares MSCI Asia ex-Japan (Nasdaq: AAXJ)

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Export Decline - Fed Crack Addicts Can't Get Enough

Key economic data, the International Trade Report for the month of August, showed a severe drop in exports this week. Does this mean the economic impact of China, the emerging markets, and maybe Europe, is worse than traders hooked on hope for a Fed-rate action need it to be? Are we in danger of entering recession, which would change the game altogether and send stocks into a bear market? This is something we need to be considering, despite my own inclination to buy on the Fed indication. See the full report on the decline in exports here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

Global Economic Meltdown?

Investors enthused by yesterday’s gains in stocks ran up against a dose of reality today. Economic data last evening from China presented the usual watermark testing lows that helped to get stocks into this mess in the first place. This morning, fresh data on the manufacturing sectors of Japan, the Eurozone and the U.S. compounded the pain. Stocks still gained in Asia overnight, but they were simply following our lead after yesterday’s relief rally here at home. In Europe, stocks started to surge today as well but turned down intraday. By the 10:00 AM EDT release of U.S. manufacturing data, it was clear investors would be second guessing their fresh bets from Wednesday. Are we in a global economic meltdown?

International Share Sectors	10-01-15
iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan (Nasdaq: AAXJ)	-0.1%
iShares MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWJ)	+0.1%
iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI)	-0.1%
iShares Europe ETF (NYSE: IEV)	-0.6%
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK)	-0.8%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)	-1.6%
iShares MSCI United Kingdom (NYSE: EWU)	-0.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Should we be Worried about the Deep Drop of Chicago PMI into Contraction Territory?

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its Chicago PMI data and it was troubling. The index of regional manufacturing fell to a level indicative of economic contraction. It’s not the first time this year for an underwater result, though we note that the economy has grown generally despite softness in this data point. Still, the depth of decline in September raises a specter of doubt about the impact of the China slowdown, European issues and U.S. energy sector woes on our economy. Whatever the cause, there may be reason for concern about the American economy, though we may have to wait for another month or two of data to determine whether that is true or not. Even so, more data is due Thursday on the American and Chinese economies that could confirm concerns and alter the path of stocks from Wednesday’s appreciation to something else. See the report analyzing Chicago PMI here.

Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.