Why the Jobs Report has been Volatile

I expect investors and maybe some economists are wondering why the monthly Employment Situation Report data has been so volatile lately. Nonfarm payrolls have varied significantly recently. The data makes for uncertainty in securities markets, which are now attempting to discern what the Federal Reserve might decide to do in December. However, I believe the cause of the variance has a simple explanation. See the full report on jobs here.

Month	Nonfarm Payrolls
October	+271
September	+137
August	+153
July	+245

Labor & Business Services Stocks

Robert Half (NYSE: RHI)

Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY)

Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW)

Manpower (NYSE: MAN)

51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS)

Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX)

Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC)

TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI)

Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX)

Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA)

CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI)

Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN)

On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN)

AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS)

Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI)

Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP)

StarTek (NYSE: SRT)

RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT)

VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP)

American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB)

Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB)

iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB)

St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB)

General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB)

Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB)

TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF)

Stratum (OTC: STTH.PK)

Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB)

Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Jobless Data Proves Our Financial Genius

The Department of Labor reported on Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday and perhaps vindicated The Greek on a small economic matter of discernment. You see last week we said the decline in jobless claims may have been due to the lackadaisical environment that precedes and follows long weekends, like the 4th of July. Even though the fourth is accounted for, the lazy mood and absent minded states that precede and follow it are not.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO

Jobless Data Proves Our Financial Genius

This week, jobless claims for the period ending July 16 rebounded, rising 10K to 418K. So, perhaps we were correct. Most economists were looking for an increase this week, so it seems our theory was maybe not so special; the consensus view was for 415K. The four-week moving average was hardly energetic, decreasing by 2,750 this week, to 421,250. It was very close to last week’s change, just in the opposite direction.

It’s very clear now that economic activity is stalled, mostly likely due to the deadlock in Congress regarding the debt ceiling and accompanying and impending catastrophe. Manufacturing activity has certainly stalled, as seen again in today’s Philly Fed Index reading of 3.2; it was at least in positive territory, unlike the New York state measure.

For the period ending July 9, the insured unemployment rate improved a tenth of a percent to 2.9%. That amounted to 50K Americans getting a job, losing their unemployment benefits or evaporating under the intense American sun. The total amount of folks receiving a benefit of some sort for their unemployment improved by 159,696K, but still numbers 7.3 million.

The future of labor will have a lot to do with the future of interest rates, and if for some ungodly reason, Standard & Poor’s follows through on its warning and downgrades American credit, well then the cost of capital rises across the board. It’s lucky that American corporations have hoarded cash for so long, but I still don’t see them hiring in that kind of environment.

As always, I provide a few state statistics here:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 2 were in Puerto Rico (4.9), Pennsylvania (4.1), Alaska (3.9), New Jersey (3.8), Oregon (3.8), Connecticut (3.7), Nevada (3.5), Rhode Island (3.5), California (3.4), Arizona (3.3), and Illinois (3.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 9 were in New York (+20,599), Minnesota (+9,681), Michigan (+9,030), Florida (+7,544), and Ohio (+5,839) while the largest decreases were in California (-15,751), New Jersey (-7,486), Massachusetts (-3,008), Illinois (-1,399), and Connecticut (-1,316).



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Special Factors in the Latest Jobless Claims Data

Weekly Jobless Claims eased sharply, weekly same-store sales soared and mortgage activity dropped off. There was a common denominator that threw a wildcard into the period for which each of these data-points were reported. While much of this data compensated for the July 4th holiday, none of it takes into account the effect of such holidays on business activity in the immediately preceding and following days.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB

Special Factors in the Latest Jobless Claims Data

Weekly Jobless Claims eased by 22K to 405K in the week ending July 9. That’s good news right? Well, if you read my article earlier this week regarding the slippage in mortgage activity, then you know there’s a fly in the economic ointment through the week inclusive of the July 4th holiday.

In the case of the mortgage application data, the holiday is adjusted for, but (and this is important) the day after is not and it is a business day that is noticeably lethargic. You can see it in your office or on the streets. People are still on vacation after the long weekend, whether it be literally so or just figuratively. They are tired, mentally absent, lethargic slugs, and just not getting much accomplished. Yet, the day after the long weekend is counted like any normal business day, and therein lies the problem.

In the case of this Department of Labor (DOL) data, it is also seasonally adjusted. However, I posit it is not adjusted quite perfectly. It cannot account for the lethargy that keeps the newly unemployed from making it immediately in to apply for their benefits nor the pace at which government workers process the applications that make it through. Have you been to the DMV lately? I realize much of this can be accomplished over the telephone nowadays, but as anyone who has had to go through the process knows, it does also require the individual to visit the unemployment office initially. Very few people absolutely need to run to the office right away, especially since the “benefits” are appropriated to account for the days since last employment, as far as I can remember. So I think a decent number of Americans will even put off money collection over a short holiday.

That said, last week had a counterweight as far as the unemployment insurance report goes. The state of Minnesota shut down, sending a flood of previously publicly employed folks to the office. Minnesota estimates that about 11,500 of their filers last week did so because of the shutdown, and they’re counted in the claims number. Thus, if not for the holiday, this report would have a much different tone to it.

The four-week moving average for claims filings decreased by 3,750, to 423,250, and probably better reflects current reality than the weekly result does. Next week’s result could offer a compensatory increase in filings, a reaction to this week’s lethargy. If we hang on weekly economic results alone, then we’ll swing wildly with them in our investment performance as well. Thus, let’s be careful about how much weight we give to weekly economic data that runs through such holiday periods especially. As always, let’s also remember to look beyond the headline and even the report itself when analyzing economic data, as much can be gleamed through a broader scope.



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Jobless Jive at the Cost of a Sound Bite

I get a little peeved sometimes when I hear a financial journalist twist data for the sake of a sound bite. It’s like this morning when a reporter said jobless claims had improved, implying the economy was simply lovely. I would be fairly certain viewers and listeners could discern reality if not for the Dow’s drive higher, up 0.8% or so today. My perusal through the Labor Department Report seems to support the reporter’s case, however accidentally she may have gotten there. So who’s to say if the latest jobless data offered good or bad news? I suspect 61K Americans have that answer.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB.

Jobless Jive at the Cost of a Sound Bite

Yeah Weekly Jobless Claims improved in the latest reported period ended July 2, but the 14,000 benefits filer decrease only took the weekly claims tally down to 418K. That’s right around the area it’s been meandering about for what seems like an eternity now. I mean that was clearly evident in the four-week moving average, which only improved by 3,000 to 424,750. This is not enthusing news, not in the least.

The insured unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a point in the period ending June 25, to 2.9%. It certainly was good news to see that insured unemployment improved by 43K in that same period, but 3.7 million people are still receiving unemployment insurance checks. If we count all Americans receiving some sort of government aid, including those receiving unemployment insurance through the extension program, well then 7,459,561 million suffering Americans come into the spotlight. Hey though, that’s 61K less than the previous week.

Come to think of it, the drift of this figure lower has been a juicy economic positive over the past few months, which I suppose is only so tasty for an economist’s palette. But I wonder how many of the people falling off this list are simply falling off the radar. And what if this latest pressure about the budget deficit leads Congress to cut off extensions; what if the policing of these benefits has already tightened, leaving Americans high and dry without a job and without any income as well? It would seem that this is possible at the ground level. If this not so savory theory is cooked into the numbers, then the divergence between the unemployed and underemployed should be exaggerated Friday when the Labor Department publishes its latest data.

One thing is certain, extended benefits are still being paid out at least in these states: Alabama, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and West Virginia (during the week ending June 18).

So whether this report is a good one or not is probably not for us to say. Neither can that aforementioned reporter know for sure. Only those 61K Americans no longer receiving checks can tell us what’s going on and exactly how things are. Are you working or are you panicking? Please tell us.

With this data, I always like to provide you with the latest information from the individual states:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 18 were in Puerto Rico (4.7), Alaska (4.2), Pennsylvania (4.0), Oregon (3.9), California (3.7), Nevada (3.6), Arizona (3.4), Connecticut (3.4), Illinois (3.4), and New Jersey (3.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 25 were in New Jersey (+6,827), California (+5,375), Massachusetts (+3,816), New York (+2,591), and Connecticut (+2,097) while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-4,974), Puerto Rico (-1,332), North Carolina (-1,316), Georgia (-975) and the Virgin Islands (-927).



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Job Market Recap - Texas Offers Guidance

The week offered two labor market data points, including the monthly state employment data and the regular weekly initial jobless claims report. My take from the data is that the labor market sits in dead-tide now, and we should look toward Texas for the rising tide.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ.

Job Market Recap - Texas Offers Guidance

The latest tally of initial unemployment claims, covering the week ending June 11, produced a modest improvement in the weekly count. New benefits filers numbered 414K, but that was 16K less than the week before. The four-week moving average, however, was unchanged at 424,750. Thus, the report was a non-starter for stocks this past week, and took a back seat to the flood of fear from Greece.

The insured unemployment rate, which measures just the folks collecting regular unemployment and not the massive list of Americans collecting on the unemployment insurance extension legislation, stuck at 2.9% through the June 4 period. That said, the count still fell by 21K, to 3,675,000. What matters more though is that when including those receiving benefits from all programs, including the extension legislation, the number of check recipients reached 7,401,228 in the week ending May 28. Good news though; that’s down 209K from the previous week. Despite all that good news for May, we already know the unemployment rate rose 9.1% last month, so this week’s data was delivered with doubt.

The weekly report of course always offers the latest state data showing the states with the biggest increases in unemployment and those states with the highest rates of joblessness. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 28 were in Alaska (4.9 percent), Puerto Rico (4.5), Oregon (4.1), Pennsylvania (3.9), Nevada (3.5), New Jersey (3.5), Virgin Islands (3.5), California (3.4), Connecticut (3.4), Arkansas (3.2), Idaho (3.2), Illinois (3.2), and Mississippi (3.2).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 4 were in Wisconsin (+1,528), Tennessee (+1,055), Illinois (+755), New Mexico (+659), Indiana (+539), while the largest decreases were in New York (-4,060), California (-2,510), Massachusetts (-1,846), Georgia (-1,256), and Florida (-1,240).

Speaking of states, this past week offered state data for the full month of May, and it showed more states experienced an increase in unemployment (24) than saw decreases (13 plus the District of Columbia). Another 13 states reported no change in employment. Of course, this data was consistent with what we already know about May on a national scale.

There was a surprise of sorts though found in the state-level nonfarm payroll data. The report showed that nonfarm payroll decreased in more states than it increased in, which was inconsistent with the total nonfarm payroll rise of 54K. We would suppose some of the less populated states fell into the short side of the count, with more crowded states adding jobs. What we found was something else though.

Regurgitating the state details for you: The greatest contributors to new employment were Florida (+28,000), followed by Ohio (+12,000), Arizona and Louisiana (+10,100 each), and Texas (+8,800). As far changes to the rate of employment, which of course incorporates population size, this showed Wyoming experienced the largest monthly percentage increase in employment (+0.8 percent), followed by Louisiana (+0.5 percent) and Arizona and Florida (+0.4 percent each). The worst monthly decrease in employment occurred in California (-29,200), followed by New York (-24,700), Pennsylvania (-14,200), Michigan (-13,400), and Maryland (-13,300). This is not consistent with what we would have expected, as the national nonfarm payroll change was a positive result. Yet, here we have the busy states of New York and California shedding jobs. Alaska experienced the largest percentage decline in employment (-1.5 percent), followed by Vermont (-1.2 percent), Delaware (-0.9 percent), and West Virginia (-0.7 percent).

Over the course of the full year, we have states like Texas to thank for our national recovery. The largest nonfarm payroll increase occurred in Texas (+205,400), followed by California (+87,300), Ohio (+65,900), Illinois (+61,600), and Pennsylvania (+44,300). Nevada continued as the state with the highest unemployment rate in May, at 12.1%. However, Nevada also saw the greatest drop in unemployment over the course of the year, with a 2.8% change for the better. I suppose we could label Nevada a high-beta state, more dependent on the general economic health of the nation than any other state, with Florida or New York likely following in second. Las Vegas attracts Americans from far and wide, but only when discretionary capital exists and jobs are available.

The growth in Texas is impressive, a state incorporating several of the nation’s largest cities. The Texas economy has been so impressive that there’s talk of its Republican Governor, Rick Perry, running for President employing Texas-success as his rally call. California is at the polar opposite though, with unemployment not much changed and sitting at 11.7% through May. California’s yearly job creation of 87K is negligible when matched to the state’s massive population and number of new entrants to the workforce.

In conclusion, the week’s labor data offered little guidance, and given the economic deterioration seen in manufacturing and consumer measures last week, investor concern might lean toward labor market deterioration to follow. Perhaps America should look towards Texas for guidance, but certainly not to California...



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Jobless Claims Report Shows Positive Move Toward Natural State of Employment

Now well-embedded above the psycho- logically dampening threshold of 400K, the latest weekly jobless claims tally held at about the same level seen over the past several weeks. Still, while the report is surely full of lowlights, it does include one bright spot that illustrates a labor market condition not yet anywhere near natural state.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Jobless Claims Report Shows Positive Move Toward Natural State of Employment

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the period ending June 4 increased by another 1,000 above last week’s revised rate, to 427K. Thus, over the last three weeks, we’ve recorded 429K, 426K and now 427K new benefits filers. Remember, we have been unscientifically tracking the enthusiasm of the stock market in relation to the claims filings and there is an unscientifically obvious correlation – you run the regression. As jobless claims broke under 450K and then 400K for the first time, stocks rejoiced the coming of the new old economy, or recovery in drab-man’s terms. Just as quickly as stocks rejoiced over dwindling claims counts, they lost hope with their revival. Of course, other economic indicators have offered a similarly sad signal, though at varying rates and times.

The four-week moving average of jobless claims offers some mildly good news today, perhaps like a cancer patient hearing that no new tumors had appeared. The four-week claims count decreased 2,750, to 424K. Considering that this figure sat as high as 439,750 in the May 21 period might give our hypothetical cancer patient some hope. We are not cured but perhaps feeling a bit better today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeking a half-point gain in early trading.

If you dig deep enough, there is still good news to be found in labor data, believe it or not. The insured unemployment rate dropped to 2.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis through May 28 (the latest for this data point); that’s down from 3.0% reported the week before. Better yet, the number of people receiving benefits of some sort for their unemployment keeps improving. This week’s data covering the May 21 period showed the total number of unemployed persons receiving some sort of benefit, including unemployment insurance extensions, improved by 89,233 to 7.6 million. This figure has been steadily improving, a sign that we are not yet near a natural state of national employment. Some claim, and we agree, that many of the lost jobs of the last decade will never return. However, new jobs should be created nonetheless as population growth, wealth stores and ambitious Americans push growth.

Speaking of the unemployment insurance extensions, the number of Americans receiving such benefits fell slightly in the May 21 period, losing 6,593 people, leaving 618,459 long-term insured unemployed Americans. We again remind you that there is a definite threshold that many Americans fall short of, leaving them high and dry as far as these benefits are concerned, while they are just as unemployed as the rest. These are the folks who are being foreclosed upon, the forgotten.

In conclusion, as we have highlighted, there is a reversion to the mean occurring in the labor market, to a natural state of national employment that is clearly better than what we have today.

Regional Lowlights:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 21 were in Alaska (5.0 percent), Puerto Rico (4.4), Oregon (4.0), California (3.9), Pennsylvania (3.9), Nevada (3.6), Connecticut (3.5), New Jersey (3.5), Illinois (3.3), and Rhode Island (3.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 28 were in New York (+3,187), Oregon (+1,508), Missouri (+1,158), Illinois (+1,081), Washington (+844), while the largest decreases were in California (-1,614), Wisconsin (-1,032), Massachusetts (-929), New Jersey(-882) and Texas (-659).



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Set for Life with an Unemployment Check, a Can of Natural Ice and a Phillies Blunt Cigar

Chillin with My Check

It seems 424K Americans are heading into Memorial Day weekend with at least some cash in their pockets. Perhaps it’s just enough for the casino bus to Atlantic City, where they hope they might turn a government handout into a jackpot to set them up for life.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Set for Life with an Unemployment Check, a Can of Natural Ice and a Phillies Blunt Cigar

The Department of Labor reported Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose again last week, to 424K; that’s 10K more than the prior week’s revised count. It’s not a good sign after plenty other bad signs throughout the month of May, a dark period that saw tornadoes run wild and unemployment insurance claims re-establish themselves above the 400K mark. The four-week moving average can attest to that, sitting now at 438,500.

I suppose the lull in hiring, which we assume paralleled the increase in jobless claims, was the result of damaged consumer confidence and its result, lighter consumer spending. This article is being published ahead of the government’s Personal Income & Outlays data, due out Friday morning. We’ll receive some sort of color on consumer spending with that release. Though the report will cover April, while these weekly jobless claims announcements reach the wire fresh. Even so, economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the pace of spending to slow to +0.4%, versus the 0.6% pace set in March. What is supposed to accelerate is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, which is seen rising 0.2%, against the 0.1% increase in March.

Cue Snoop Dog CD here...

It was rising prices this past month that stalled consumers, especially gasoline, which touched $4 a gallon. That’s high enough to keep Americans planted in their backyards with a can of Natural Ice. That’s the cheap beer of the day; you old timers can liken to Milwaukee’s Best, or The Beast, as it’s known among serious beer connoisseurs. You can grab a six pack of Natural Ice for less than $5, and it goes well enough with a Phillies Blunt cigar, the poor man’s Partagas. Heck, sitting on a stoop with the two of those and the gang, listening to a baseball game on a sultry summer night, well it just doesn’t get much better… You can keep your stuffy Midtown bar and your vain, superficial, ravenous foreign lady. I’ll take my American girl and my American game.

Supposedly, insured unemployment fell by a tenth of a point, to 2.9% in the lagged May 14 period. In case you were counting reality, the number of Americans collecting on some sort of UI program numbered 7,739,572 in the May 7 period, which is quite a bit more than 2.9%. And that don’t include the poor saps who have given up, and the poorer of spirit saps who are swallowing their pride waiting tables or writing to the ether-world. Though, at least the poor saps have time to spend with The Beast.

We always like to give you the skinny on regional unemployment so here it is:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 7 were in Alaska (5.5 percent), Puerto Rico (4.3), Oregon (4.2), Pennsylvania (4.0), California (3.9), Nevada (3.7), New Jersey (3.7), Connecticut (3.6), Illinois (3.6), Idaho (3.4), Rhode Island (3.4), and Wisconsin (3.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 14 were in Florida (+1,340), Georgia (+747), New Mexico (+415), Idaho (+282), and Hawaii (+236), while the largest decreases were in California (-6,828), Michigan (-6,740), New York (-2,569), Alabama (-2,093) and Wisconsin (-2,079).



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP), Boston Beer (NYSE: SAM), Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Philip Morris (NYSE: PM), Acuity (NYSE: AYI).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The True Unemployment Rate is Much Worse than the Government Says

Over the past several months we’ve been asking a question, where have 600K Americans disappeared to since November, as they are no longer showing up in the labor pool. So we’ve taken to adding back our disenchanted brothers to the labor force and to the unemployment pool, thus developing the Wall Street Greek Real Unemployment Rate and the like Under-Employment Rate. We calculate those truer estimates of the employment situation for you again here, and the result stands in stark contrast to Wall Street’s Friday morning rally.

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True Unemployment Rate is Much Worse than the Government Says

Last month, we presciently said, "Perhaps the growth in the labor pool over the last couple months is the start of the discouraged returning to look for work again, which would imply the unemployment rate could increase again as it normalizes." Well, Friday, even as Nonfarm Payrolls were reported robustly higher, the unemployment rate deteriorated two-tenths of a point, to 9.0%...

A Survey of the Data

The Labor Department reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by a net 244K in April, much above the 185K average net increase forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. April also illustrated an improved rate of job additions, as the revised March figure was noted at 221K (216K initially). The government’s data blew away ADP’s estimate for private nonfarm payroll change, as the feds reported 268K private sector net job additions, versus the 179K seen by ADP (NYSE: ADP). That’s a much healthier increase than the market had ever dreamed of, and it gave life to U.S. equity markets Friday morning.

The DOL reported job growth in services, which certainly could change in the near-term, given recent ISM Non-Manufacturing Index data. Perhaps helped by Easter lift, seen also in the latest Chain Store Sales data, April marked job growth in the Retail Trade Sector (57K+). Real estate enthusiasts will be pleased to hear about increases of 6K in both the Building Materials & Garden Supply Stores and Electronics & Appliance Stores, segments that tend to benefit in tandem with housing (or at a lag according to renowned portfolio manager Peter Lynch – see Beating the Street). The problem here is that increases in Construction employment are still nonexistent, but don’t forget, there’s a buffer to this growth that will keep it hidden; it can be found standing outside Home Depot (NYSE: HD) with empty pockets where green cards should be.

Another notoriously struggling services sector, Professional & Business Services, added 51K jobs in April. However, temporary help hiring hit a soft spot this past month. Temporary help is seen as a labor mezzanine between economic trough and full blown expansion. Health Care has been a regular stalwart sector, and added another 37K jobs last month. Leisure & Hospitality, which should have some seasonal play now, added 46K jobs in April, though over the last three months, two-thirds of the segment’s 151K job additions have come in eating and drinking establishments. Well, the boardwalk down the Jersey Shore officially opens in a just a few weeks, and it is full of food servers in high season. I tend to favor pizza at the beach.

Manufacturing posted growth in April, adding 29K jobs, much of which is supported by emerging world demand. The sector has now added 141K jobs in this short year-to-date. The mining sector added 11K jobs, we suppose some of which was found in rare earth unearthing given the sudden revival of Molycorp (NYSE: MCP) and friends. As long as oil-rich Middle Eastern despots keep finding crowds in the streets each morning, mining opportunities should be aplenty (for even more coal than we already choke on).

The weakness this month, dear fellow citizens, was again found in the public sector, where federal, state and local governments are only seeing increasing reasons to lay off firemen, police officers and even welfare workers in this time of great need. The Public Sector shed 24K jobs in April, after losing 10K in March and 26K in February.

The good news found in the Establishment Survey overwhelmed the Household Survey headline, which sure seemed to evidence a deteriorating employment situation. The rate of unemployment increased to 9.0%, up two-tenths from 8.8% in March. According to Household inquiries, unemployment increased most among teenagers (+0.4%), African Americans (+0.6%) and Hispanic Americans (+0.5%). Adult men and women saw equal increases of 0.2% each. Also, unemployment increased most among people with less than a high school diploma, with that least skilled group seeing a 0.9% increase in joblessness. As we move up the educational scale, we find lower degrees of increased joblessness in April.

The count of Americans working part-time, who would rather be working full-time, increased in April by 167K, to 8.6 million. The number of people marginally attached to the workforce, meaning they had not looked for work over the last four weeks, was relatively unchanged in April at 2.466 million. Finally, those discouraged workers who currently believe there just are no jobs available for them right now, increased by 68K. The biggest problem with this is that it marked a shift into hopelessness from desperation, as these folks simply shifted within the marginally attached group into its most desperate segment.

Calculating Under-Employment

Calculating this month's under-employment rate: If we add back the 2.466 million (previously 2.434 mln.) displaced workers counted in April to the labor market, and include the 8.6 million (previously 8.433 mln.) underemployed part-timers in the unemployed count, adjusted unemployment deteriorates two-tenths of a point to ((13.747M + 2.466M + 8.6M) / (153.421M + 2.466M)) * 100 = 15.92% in April.

Under-Employment Rate Trend:

• April 2011: 15.9%
• March 2011: 15.7%
• February 2011: 15.9%
• January 2011: 16.1%
• December: 16.7%
• November: 17.0%
• October: 17.0%
• September: 17.1%
• August: 16.7%
• July: 16.5%
• June: 16.5%
• May: 16.6%
• April: 17.1%
• March: 16.9%
• February: 16.8%
• January: 16.4%

Getting to the Wall Street Greek Real Unemployment Rate Estimate

While the workforce grew by another 15K in April, that still leaves it 586K short of November's tally. The problem comes when we compare the change in the unemployed with the change in employed Americans over that same span. While 786K more people were counted as "employed" since November, 1352K less people were counted as "unemployed." Where did the extra unemployed people go to, some 566K unaccounted for Americans?

The numbers seem to tell us, they left the labor pool. If we consider they may have retired (from both the labor force and unemployment), then we might find the difference. You see, we have 586K fewer folks in the labor force and a difference of 566K folks between the change in employed and unemployed. The 20K difference can be explained by the DOL’s disclaimer: "Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series."

But have that many people really retired, fallen ill or died, or have many of them simply fallen off the radar, yet while remaining unemployed? It is pretty much universally agreed upon (now) that the growth in the labor pool over the last couple months is the start of the discouraged unaccounted for unemployed returning to look for work again. This explains why the unemployment rate increased last month, as it should if the labor market is normalizing to account for the abnormal disappearance of Americans from the data.

The difference between the employment increase and unemployment decrease nearly matches the number of Americans no longer considered part of the civilian labor force. Therefore, we add back the lost and unaccounted for Americans into the equation, and we find March's more likely unemployment rate, or the Wall Street Greek Real Unemployment Rate Estimate, sits at 9.3% (versus the government's 9.0%) and the Wall Street Greek Real Underemployment Rate Estimate at 16.2% (against government's 15.9%).

Therefore, in our estimation, unemployment deteriorated in April and was three-tenths of a percentage point worse than the government’s estimate. However, the situation was even worse in February of this year. True Underemployment also deteriorated this month by two-tenths, and was three-tenths of a percentage point worse than the estimate made on pure government figures. Last month, we could at least point to an improving trend, while our numbers marked lower absolute economic health. This month, we cannot even say that. So while the market rejoiced over a solid nonfarm payroll figure, and also on upward revisions to the two previous months of data, the truth is that there is a segment of the population that has given up looking for work, understating the depth of disgust with the economy among our citizenry, not to mention the degree of economic ill-health.

Wall Street Greek Real Unemployment Rate Estimate for 2011:

• April: 9.3%
• March: 9.2%
• February: 9.4%
• January: 9.2%

Wall Street Greek Real Under-Employment Rate Estimate for 2011:

• April: 16.2%
• March: 16.0%
• February: 16.3%

Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Jobless Claims Sound Yet Another Economic Warning Siren

A troubling trend only intensified with Thursday’s release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for the period ending April 30, 2011. While the government blamed the deterioration on exogenous factors, and while much of the popular press bought in, we can’t help to note the softness seen in the service sector last month and other impacts we expect from important increases to gasoline prices.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Jobless Claims Sound Yet Another Economic Warning Siren

The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report showed new filers for unemployment insurance benefits spiked up by 43,000 in the latest period, increasing to 474K. The federal government tried to lay blame on anomalous factors, but the week’s data marked the continuation of an increasingly troubling trend begun several weeks ago. That trend is illustrated by the four-week moving average, which rose by 22,250 in this latest period, to 431,250. We’ve documented its creeping to and above the market-despised 400K psychological threshold.

The government listed three specific anomalous issues at play, including a spring break holiday in New York that is not covered by seasonal adjustment; a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto plant shutdowns caused by supply chain issues tied to the disaster in Japan. Firstly, one of these issues, the spring break, only applies to the latest period, and the rising trend has extended for at least three weeks now. Secondly, the supply chain issue may only be temporary, but it is still affecting Americans in a real way. Income streams have been reduced, and those families still have inflexible expense streams to cover, and so discretionary spending will be affected at those households. Finally, the Oregon issue is perhaps now capturing a small group of unemployed Americans who were otherwise lost through the cracks, and so the data was previously understating need. In other words, there’s no good news in anomalous issues, even if they are completely to blame. The fact is that more people needed help last week.

The problem is though that it would appear anomalous issues are not completely to blame. Rather, consumer spending is seeing direct impact from high gasoline prices. As spending declines, we see decreased business in the important service sector, which was illustrated by the just reported ISM Nonmanufacturing Index. The service sector measure fell to 52.8 in April, down from 57.3 the month before (when we presciently authored our article, Beginning of the End for the Service Sector). That in turn will inevitably drive layoffs, and while Challenger’s Announced Job-Cuts data did not agree with our thesis in April, the creeping seen in the weekly jobless count has. By the way, we captured that change as well.

So while much of the popular press wants to buy into government excuses, we see the evidence as overwhelming, the economy is marking the effects of high priced gasoline. This latest constraint to a once spoiled American consumer is too important to not have deep impact to our economy. As price hikes continue in consumer goods as well, as announced by Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) and others, a vulnerable American consumer should weigh more heavily on a vulnerable small business sector. The result, if not miraculously mitigated, should be slippage back into recession.

FYI:
Looking at the weekly claims data, the insured unemployment rate stuck at 3.0% in the April 23rd ending period. Also, the total number of benefits claimers under all programs decreased by 171,547, to 8.0 million, but for the April 16 ending period.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 16 were in Alaska (6.0 percent), Puerto Rico (4.8), Oregon (4.4), Pennsylvania (4.2), California (4.1), Wisconsin (4.1), Rhode Island (3.9), Idaho (3.9), New Jersey (3.9), Nevada (3.8), and Montana (3.8).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 23 were in New Jersey (+5,326), Massachusetts (+4,027), Pennsylvania (+2,306), Ohio (+1,700), and Connecticut (+1,601), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,861), North Carolina (-1,662), Missouri (-1,618), New Mexico (-1,417), and Arizona (-1,138).



Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

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