Should we be Worried about the Deep Drop of Chicago PMI into Contraction Territory?

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its Chicago PMI data and it was troubling. The index of regional manufacturing fell to a level indicative of economic contraction. It’s not the first time this year for an underwater result, though we note that the economy has grown generally despite softness in this data point. Still, the depth of decline in September raises a specter of doubt about the impact of the China slowdown, European issues and U.S. energy sector woes on our economy. Whatever the cause, there may be reason for concern about the American economy, though we may have to wait for another month or two of data to determine whether that is true or not. Even so, more data is due Thursday on the American and Chinese economies that could confirm concerns and alter the path of stocks from Wednesday’s appreciation to something else. See the report analyzing Chicago PMI here.

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