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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Seeking Alpha

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Sell Gold Miners – They're Levered to the Gold Collapse Catalyst

easy does it
Gold prices should suffer a setback if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dot-plot economic forecasts show Fed-member expectations for rate hikes this year. The market has priced out that possibility and therefore would have to adjust to it, which I believe results in a sharp move higher for the dollar and a collapse in gold prices. Gold miners are naturally levered to gold prices, as their profitability depends on it. Thus, I have taken a short position in the recently enriched Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX). I suggest holders of the GDX sell it now. See the full report: Sell Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) - Levered to Gold Collapse Catalyst.

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short GDX. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

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Oil is in Trouble – Watch the Fed Dot-Plots

oil price crash
Oil is in trouble again. On Wednesday, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publishes its economic forecasts, I expect the dot-plots will show Fed rate expectations for this year are higher than the market has currently priced in. If that is the case, then oil investors will have to account for the fact that the Fed is applying the brakes to the suspect economy at a time when energy supply already overwhelms demand. Also the dollar would likely surge on such action, which pressures all commodities. The result is lower energy prices. Oil is in trouble. See the full Oil Warning Report here.

Energy Relative Shares
03-15-16
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-0.2%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
-1.8%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
-2.8%
United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)
+1.9%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)
-0.2%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)
+0.0%
Market Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)
-0.9%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
+0.5%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
+0.0%
B.P. (NYSE: BP)
-1.0%
TOTAL S.A. (NYSE: TOT)
-1.7%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)
-0.5%
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)
+0.5%
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)
-1.0%
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)
-0.3%
Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI)
+0.8%
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)
-1.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests energy investors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).

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A Catalyst is Coming to Crush Gold

government ignorance
Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected by many to serve gold well, but I believe a surprise is in store. The market expects the Fed to pause its rate tightening in March, which is good for gold. But the market has not accounted for the Fed dot-plot forecasts, which I expect are likely to show Fed expectations for 2 to 3 rate hikes this year. Over the course of the last several months, the market has whittled its own expectations down to one or none for the year. Thus, a contrasting and conflicting message from the Fed could reignite the dollar and crush gold. See the full report on the Catalyst Coming to Crush Gold. Article interests SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

Precious Metal Securities
03-15-16 Intraday
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-0.4%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
-0.2%
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)
-0.3%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
-0.3%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT)
+3.3%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bearish 3X (NYSE: DUST)
-3.0%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
+1.2%
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ)
-0.7%
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)
+0.5%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)
+0.7%
Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD)
+1.5%
Barrick Resources (NYSE: ABX)
+2.6%
Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)
-2.8%
Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI)
+0.8%
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)
-0.2%
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE)
-2.0%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short GDX. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in precious metals stocks: Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), Aurizon Mines (AMEX: AZK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD), Charles & Covard (Nasdaq: CTHR), Claude Resources (AMEX: CGR), Commerce Group (OTC: CGCO.PK), Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN), DRDGOLD (Nasdaq: DROOY), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Entrée Gold (AMEX: EGI), Exeter Resource (AMEX: XRA), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Gold Reserve (AMEX: GRZ), Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO), Golden Eagle Int’l (OTC: MYNG.PK), Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG), International Tower Hill Mines (AMEX: THM), Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), Keegan Resources (AMEX: KGN), Kimber Resources (AMEX: KBX), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Midway Gold (AMEX: MDW), Minco Gold (AMEX: MGH), Nevsun Resources (AMEX: NSU), New Jersey Mining (OTC: NJMC.PK), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), North Bay Resources (OTC: NBRI.OB), Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC), Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY), Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), Solitario Exploration and Royalty (AMEX: XPL), Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRE), Thunder Mountain Gold (OTC: THMG.OB), U.S. Gold (NYSE: UXG), Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ), Wits Basin Precious Metals (OTC: WITM.PK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), Mines Management (AMEX: MGN), Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL), Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM), Paramount Gold and Silver (AMEX: PZG), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG).

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Tuesday, March 03, 2015

McDonald’s (MCD) - Why the Run is Done at $100

McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) run to $100 has been impressive, but it could end abruptly over the next few days. My reasoning has little to do with the round number, and a lot to do with an imminent event that I believe could remind investors of the reason why the stock was a dog of the Dow to begin with. While MCD has had a nice run since hiring its new CEO, it’s now show me time and the precedent isn’t good. See my full short report on McDonald's here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Sunday, May 12, 2013

Microsoft Missed its Moment to Defend Against Apple & Google

Microsoft SurfaceMicrosoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) might have seen the writing on the wall sooner regarding the migration of web browsers to mobile, but I believe it missed its moment to defend its market share. Microsoft’s development of its tablet, Surface and Surface Pro, may be more indicative of its failure to act quickly enough to counter Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) market share stealing mobile operating system than reflective of progressive innovation. Where it stands now, it has also fallen far behind Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android system in mobile. As a result, I think Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) will continue to shed market share over time and could become relegated to a shrinking PC market and enterprise segment, unless it can reinvent the reinvented. So, despite the stock’s post earnings pop, I would use recent strength to sell MSFT shares and put the money to more active use. However, let’s put things into proper perspective. This is still a company that just earned over $20 billion in revenues last quarter, and which has various other businesses besides its Windows business. In other words, it has the resources and the current market presence to affect its fate, despite being late to mobile as I suggest.

Microsoft bloggerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Microsoft


Apple (AAPL) was able to disrupt two industries at one time when it developed its iPhone, and later, the iPad. Developing innovative electronics that attracted demand from competing mobile phone makers was the obvious win, but what it accomplished and perhaps stole out of the arms of Palm (Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) acquired) and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) turned out to be much bigger than just that. While students, writers and technical & professional Americans use computers for all sorts of calculations, documentation and other work, a great many more people use them just to surf the web and now to meddle in social media as well. As a result, mobile computing devices have been eating into the sales of personal computers and laptops.

Microsoft was late to the game in developing a competing operating system for mobile devices, and many of its partners in PCs and laptops, the Dell’s (Nasdaq: DELL) of the world, missed the boat as well. But while investors have prepared the hanging tree for the lynching of Dell, they are not yet ready to count the PC perennials including Microsoft, Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and others out just yet. Certainly, I can agree that there remains serious question about whether the tablet can unseat the laptop, especially as innovative laptop makers adapt to meet the competition. In my view, this is the best thing working in favor of Microsoft in its defense against the tablet, and not the possibility of other tablets incorporating Microsoft’s system for mobile. Microsoft’s “tablet PC” or “PC in tablet form”, the Surface is really just one of those new innovative laptops, but for Microsoft to keep share, it needs other laptop makers to pick up after its lead. Obviously, it would also help if mobile adopted Microsoft’s system, which is not entirely out of the question, though certainly stalled by Microsoft’s late start. I’m concerned it may just be too late.

MSFT Chart


Based on my long-term premise, which I believe is reflected in the performance of the stock leading into its more recent pop, I think the stock should still be sold here. It’s my view that the steep climb would better represent Microsoft’s successful challenge to Apple and Google in mobile operating systems (not Surface sales alone), and I do not think we are there yet. According to research firm IDC, Microsoft’s first quarter sales of tablets represented just 1.8% of segment sales. Meanwhile, Samsung and Google posed the most significant challenge to Apple this year.

Company
Tablet Sales (Units)
Q1 2013 Share
Q1 2012 Share
Apple (AAPL)
19.5 Mln.
39.6%
58.1%
Samsung (OTC: SSNLF.PK)
8.8 Mln.
17.9%
11.3%
AsusTek (OTC: ASUUY.PK)
2.7 Mln.
5.5%
3.1%
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN)
1.8 Mln.
3.7%
3.6%
Microsoft (MSFT)
0.9 Mln.
1.8%
NA
Other
15.5 Mln.
31.5%
24.1%


According to YCharts, Microsoft’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio and price-to-sales ratio are higher than they have been in two years time, and the company still has an important question to answer. Thus, I believe post earnings fervor took hold of the stock and took it too high too quickly in terms of valuation. Given my well-documented renewed concerns about the global economy, even if the company’s market share were not being threatened, I would not favor a historically high valuation now. Therefore, I would sell MSFT here and put capital to other use.

More WSG work on: Technology, Stocks and our Editor's Picks.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

I See Questionable Drivers Behind 2 Big Chinese Stock Advances – Nasdaq: VALV and Nasdaq: KGJI

stocks
The most active stocks list Wednesday was volatile, with winners rising from 10% to 39% and decliners dropping from 9% to 42%. Chinese stocks led the list, you would think as the likely beneficiaries of favorably interpreted Chinese economic data, which was released Wednesday. However, my view of the real reasons behind two of the risers exposes what I believe are questionable drivers. So I say buyer beware.

china stocks analystOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers included: Nasdaq: VALV, NYSE: KKD, NYSE: ETE, NYSE: FF, Nasdaq: KIOR, Nasdaq: KGJI, Nasdaq: PBTH, Nasdaq: NEWN, Nasdaq: TAOM, AMEX: PAL, AMEX: BMJ, Nasdaq: SORL, Nasdaq: ALRN, Nasdaq: PPHM, Nasdaq: DYNT, Nasdaq: AFFM, AMEX: ALN, Nasdaq: CLNE, Nasdaq: BWOW, Nasdaq: SCMF, NYSE: GU, Nasdaq: SNFCA, Nasdaq: MDGN, Nasdaq: LBIX, NYSEArca: AGQ, Nasdaq: SPEX, Nasdaq: CHCI, Nasdaq: RGDX, Nasdaq: TSPT, Nasdaq: FPFC, Nasdaq: BKOR, Nasdaq: CRVP, NYSE: ITG, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: LIME, Nasdaq: VTUS, Nasdaq: TOPSD, Nasdaq: BCAR, NYSEArca: ZSL, Nasdaq: BOVA, Nasdaq: OLCB, NYSE: OWW, Nasdaq: ADTN, AMEX: WGA, Nasdaq: PWAV, Nasdaq: AMTC, Nasdaq: CPSS, Nasdaq: CDTI, NYSE: TRU, NYSE: VR, Nasdaq: EONC, Nasdaq: BMTI, Nasdaq: ALTI, NYSE: YUM, NYSE: MAR, Nasdaq: ARTW, Nasdaq: OZRK, Nasdaq: ESBK, Nasdaq: EMMS, Nasdaq: FEIM, Nasdaq: FTLK, NYSE: GKK, Nasdaq: GFED, Nasdaq: IGTE, Nasdaq: LLEN, Nasdaq: MSW, Nasdaq: MFRI, Nasdaq: FIZZ, AMEX: UWN, Nasdaq: NFEC, Nasdaq: NTIC, Nasdaq: SLP, Nasdaq: UFPI, Nasdaq: WBNK, Nasdaq: WINA.

I See Questionable Drivers Behind 2 Big Chinese Stock Advances – Nasdaq: VALV and Nasdaq: KGJI



Shengkai Innovations

Wednesday’s most active risers was led by penny stock Shengkai Innovations Inc. (Nasdaq: VALV), which increased 39.5% on the day. Shengkai was mentioned in a China Analyst article as a leader among Chinese stocks in terms of ROE, with a reported 134.64% return over 12 months. The company was also noted to have a net profit margin of 69.42% over the same span. The wire was otherwise absent of reasoning for the rise in the stock. VALV makes ceramic valves, which it exports to the Asia-Pacific region, North America and Europe. Yahoo Finance has the float for this $58 million market capitalization stock at 8.0 million shares, so moving it was not so difficult. The listed P/E ratio on the stock is extremely low based on Yahoo data. However, we’re dealing with a small Chinese company here, so there are many unknowns about the industry, company and the opportunity. I would have been more interested in the stock and its move if the reason behind it were other than a PRish article.

Kingold Jewelry

Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), another penny stock from China, benefited from a Street.com article listing it as 1 of 5 stocks insiders were snapping up. The article included Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD), Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE), FutureFuel (NYSE: FF), KiOR (Nasdaq: KIOR) and Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI). This stock is down significantly since last summer, and there must be a good reason for that wouldn’t you think? KGJI is off its high by 83% even after Wednesday’s 25% spurt higher. The founder of the company and its chairman may be a good guy who believes wholly in his company, and the stock does trade at a trailing P/E ratio of 4.7, which under normal conditions would seem cheap for a stock that sells into the expanding Chinese middle class.

But here’s the problem... Kingold sells gold jewelry, and as gold prices rise, its margins get squeezed and sales opportunities get limited. That’s why the stock is down over the last year in my view, and I think it’s a good reason. I would, however, look at this stock should gold prices indicate a longer term turn in trend lower. However, while I see gold backtracking off whatever high it sets Thursday, I don’t see it backing down far enough for jewelry retailers to become attractive long-term.

The remainder of the day’s upside list included: PROLOR Biotech (Nasdaq: PBTH), New Energy Systems (Nasdaq: NEWN), Taomee Holdings (Nasdaq: TAOM), North American Palladium (AMEX: PAL), Birks & Mayors (AMEX: BMJ), SORL Auto Parts (Nasdaq: SORL), American Learning (Nasdaq: ALRN), Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: PPHM), Dynatronics (Nasdaq: DYNT), Affirmative Insurance (Nasdaq: AFFM), American Lorain (AMEX: ALN), Clean Energy Fuels (Nasdaq: CLNE), Wowjoint Holdings (Nasdaq: BWOW), Southern Community Financial (Nasdaq: SCMF), Gushan Environmental Energy (NYSE: GU), Security National Financial (Nasdaq: SNFCA), Medgenics (Nasdaq: MDGN), Leading Brands (Nasdaq: LBIX), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca: AGQ), Spherix (Nasdaq: SPEX), Comstock Homebuilding (Nasdaq: CHCI) and Response Genetics (Nasdaq: RGDX).

The leading losers list included: Transcept Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: TSPT), First Place Financial (Nasdaq: FPFC), Oak Ridge Financial (Nasdaq: BKOR), Crystal Rock (Nasdaq: CRVP), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), TBS International (Nasdaq: TBSI), Lime Energy (Nasdaq: LIME), Ventrus Biosciences (Nasdaq: VTUS), TOP Ships (Nasdaq: TOPSD), Bank of the Carolinas (Nasdaq: BCAR), ProShares Ultra Short Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL), Bank of Virginia (Nasdaq: BOVA), Ohio Legacy (Nasdaq: OLCB), Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW), ADTRAN (Nasdaq: ADTN), Wells-Gardner Electronics (AMEX: WGA), Powerwave Technologies (Nasdaq: PWAV), Ameritrans Capital (Nasdaq: AMTC), Consumer Portfolio Services (Nasdaq: CPSS), Clean Diesel Technologies (Nasdaq: CDTI), Torch Energy Royalty (NYSE: TRU), Validus Holdings (NYSE: VR), eOn Communications (Nasdaq: EONC), BioMimetic Therapeutics (Nasdaq: BMTI) and Altair Nanotechnologies (Nasdaq: ALTI).

The day’s earnings list included: Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Marriott International (NYSE: MAR), ADTRAN (Nasdaq: ADTN), Art’s Way Manufacturing (Nasdaq: ARTW), Bank of the Ozarks (Nasdaq: OZRK), Elmira Savings Bank (Nasdaq: ESBK), Emmis Communications (Nasdaq: EMMS), Frequency Electronics (Nasdaq: FEIM), Funtalk China (Nasdaq: FTLK), Gramercy Capital (NYSE: GKK), Guaranty Federal Bancshares (Nasdaq: GFED), iGate (Nasdaq: IGTE), L&L Energy (Nasdaq: LLEN), Mission West Properties (Nasdaq: MSW), MFRI (Nasdaq: MFRI), National Beverage (Nasdaq: FIZZ), Nevada Gold & Casinos (AMEX: UWN), NF Energy (Nasdaq: NFEC), Northern Technologies International (Nasdaq: NTIC), Simulations Plus (Nasdaq: SLP), Universal Forest Products (Nasdaq: UFPI), Waccamaw Bankshares (Nasdaq: WBNK) and Winmark (Nasdaq: WINA).

Chinese stocks forum message board chat

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Friday, March 18, 2011

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) EPS Report Shows us a Hiding Place for Corporate American Ailments

fedex fdx eps report corporate american ailments
We're On Guard for You Against Shady Tactics

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) shares rose 3% Thursday after it painted a rosy view of the economy and its own forward quarter outlook. The transportation company is an important barometer of the broader economy, and so its report and communications are important to all investors. But I'm warning readers to beware the current environment, because I see within it a place for corporate America to hide what ails it.


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: FDX, NYSE: UPS, Nasdaq: CHRW, Nasdaq: EXPD, Nasdaq: UTIW, Nasdaq: HUBG, Nasdaq: FWRD, Nasdaq: ATSG, Nasdaq: PACR, Nasdaq: AIRT, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: WLGI, NYSE: UNP, NYSE: CNI, NYSE: CSX, NYSE: NSC, NYSE: CP, NYSE: KSU, NYSE: WAB, NYSE: GSH, NYSE: TRN, NYSE: GWR, NYSE: RA, NYSE: GBX, Nasdaq: ARII, Nasdaq: RAIL, Nasdaq: PWX, Nasdaq: JBHT, Nasdaq: LSTR, NYSE: CNW, Nasdaq: WERN, Nasdaq: ODFL, NYSE: KNX, Nasdaq: HTLD, Nasdaq: MRTN, NYSE: CGI, Nasdaq: ECHO, Nasdaq: UACL, Nasdaq: PATR, Nasdaq: SAIA, Nasdaq: QLTY, Nasdaq: USAK, Nasdaq: CVTI, Nasdaq: PTSI, Nasdaq: YRCW, AMEX: XPO, Nasdaq: FFEX, NYSE: TDW, NYSE: KEX, NYSE: TK, NYSE: TGP, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: CKH, Nasdaq: ALEX, NYSE: SFL, Nasdaq: DRYS, NYSE: TOO, Nasdaq: GLNG, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: OSG, Nasdaq: CMRE, NYSE: HOS, NYSE: SB, OTC: VLCCF, NYSE: NM, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNK, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: GSL, NYSE: TNP, Nasdaq: CPLP, Nasdaq: EGLE, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, Nasdaq: BALT, Nasdaq: STNG, Nasdaq: PRGN, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ULTR, Nasdaq: GASS, NYSE: ISH, Nasdaq: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, NYSE: HRZ, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: RLOG, Nasdaq: DCIX, Nasdaq: GLBS, Nasdaq: OCNF, NYSE: TMM, Nasdaq: TRBR, Nasdaq: TOPS, AMEX: BHO, Nasdaq: FREE, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: NEWL.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) EPS Report Shows us a Hiding Place for Corporate American Ailments



transportation stock sector analystFedEx shares rose despite the company's missing its fiscal third quarter target by a penny, after already having warned analysts that severe weather would impact its quarter. The final tally from the snowy December/January span cost the company approximately $0.12 in EPS. The company earned $0.81, excluding nonrecurring items, just shy of the adjusted $0.82 analyst consensus tallied by Bloomberg.

Besides that bad news, an analyst from Barclay's Capital (NYSE: BCS) estimates the company does $1.7 billion in annual business from Japan, some 4% of its total revenue. If that was not enough, gasoline and other fuel costs that strike at the core of FedEx's expenses, are on the rise without ceiling in sight.

Yet, FedEx overcame a potentially terrible Thursday by focusing the market's attention on the opportunity it has to ship relief and reconstruction supplies into Japan. Better yet, it projected EPS of $1.66 to $1.83 for its May quarter that left the analysts' consensus short at approximately $1.66 per share. That's the kind of good news the market rewards, and it did.

After its rosy forecast that supposedly takes into account the "current market outlook for fuel prices and continued moderate growth in the global economy," the market ignored FedEx's subtle warning that its earnings "could be affected by the effects of ongoing political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa on fuel prices and the economy." After making the big prediction for its numbers, the company went on to warn that the uncertain situation in Japan could somehow affect its operating environment. Well duh!

I'm not saying FedEx is doing this, but it seems there is a cushion for companies now, and perhaps some are taking advantage of an opportunity to forecast liberally to overcome current bad news. After all, that gives a company a full three months to make the magic happen, or else just blame the next miss on the "extraordinary" chaos overseas. I'm just saying the volatile global environment allows some leeway for little white lies, not that anyone in corporate America would ever do something like that...

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Article interests: FedEx (NYSE: FDX), United Parcels Service (NYSE: UPS), C.H. Robinson Worldwide (Nasdaq: CHRW), Expeditors International (Nasdaq: EXPD), UTI Worldwide (Nasdaq: UTIW), Hub Group (Nasdaq: HUBG), Forward Air (Nasdaq: FWRD), Air Transport Services (Nasdaq: ATSG), Pacer International (Nasdaq: PACR), Air T Inc. (Nasdaq: AIRT), Sino-Global Shipping America (Nasdaq: SINO), WLG Inc. (Nasdaq: WLGI), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP), Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI), CSX (NYSE: CSX), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC), Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE: CP), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU), Westinghouse Air Brake (NYSE: WAB), Guangshen Railway (NYSE: GSH), Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN), Genesee & Wyoming (NYSE: GWR), RailAmerica (NYSE: RA), Greenbrier (NYSE: GBX), American Railcar (Nasdaq: ARII), FreightCar America (Nasdaq: RAIL), Providence & Worcester (Nasdaq: PWX), J.B. Hunt Transport (Nasdaq: JBHT), Landstar System (Nasdaq: LSTR), Con-way (NYSE: CNW), Werner Enterprises (Nasdaq: WERN), Old Dominion Freight (Nasdaq: ODFL), Knight Transportation (NYSE: KNX), Heartland Express (Nasdaq: HTLD), Marten Transport (Nasdaq: MRTN), Celadon Group (NYSE: CGI), Echo Global Logistics (Nasdaq: ECHO), Universal Truckload (Nasdaq: UACL), Patriot Transportation (Nasdaq: PATR), Saia (Nasdaq: SAIA), Quality Distribution (Nasdaq: QLTY), USA Truck (Nasdaq: USAK), Covenant Transportation (Nasdaq: CVTI), P.A.M. Transportation (Nasdaq: PTSI), YRC Worldwide (Nasdaq: YRCW), Express-1 Expedited Services (AMEX: XPO), Frozen Food Express (Nasdaq: FFEX), Tidewater (NYSE: TDW), Kirby (NYSE: KEX), Teekay (NYSE: TK), Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP), Frontline (NYSE: FRO), Seacor (NYSE: CKH), Alexander & Baldwin (Nasdaq: ALEX), Ship Finance International (NYSE: SFL), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Teekay Offshore Partners (NYSE: TOO), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM), Overseas Shipholding (NYSE: OSG), Costamare (Nasdaq: CMRE), Hornbeck Offshore (NYSE: HOS), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Knightsbridge Tankers (OTC: VLCCF), Navios Maritime (NYSE: NM), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK), Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK), Excel Maritime (NYSE: EXM), Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Capital Product Partners (Nasdaq: CPLP), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Holdings (NYSE: DHT), Baltic Trading (Nasdaq: BALT), Scorpio Tankers (Nasdaq: STNG), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Ultrapetrol (Nasdaq: ULTR), StealthGas (Nasdaq: GASS), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), K-Sea Transportation (Nasdaq: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Horizon Lines (NYSE: HRZ), TBS International (Nasdaq: TBSI), Rand Logistics (Nasdaq: RLOG), Diana Containerships (Nasdaq: DCIX), Globus Maritime (Nasdaq: GLBS), OceanFreight (Nasdaq: OCNF), Grupo TMM (NYSE: TMM), Trailer Bridge (Nasdaq: TRBR), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), B&H Ocean (AMEX: BHO), FreeSeas (Nasdaq: FREE), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), NewLead (Nasdaq: NEWL).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) Smart PR Effort and Our Outlook

Apple Nasdaq AAPL smart PR Effort Outlook
Managing Disaster

Apple's PR team did a decent job of best managing the worst possible scenario, the loss of its iconic leader, but we suspect guarding against investor concern will require a little more than just blowout earnings.


Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: Nasdaq: AAPL, Nasdaq: DELL, Nasdaq: GOOG, Nasdaq: RIMM, NYSE: HPQ, Nasdaq: MSFT, Nasdaq: AMZN, NYSE: NOK, NYSE: GLW, NYSE: MOT, NYSE: ALU, NYSE: HRS, Nasdaq: TLAB, NYSE: SNE, NYSE: PHG, NYSE: PC, NYSE: HIT, NYSE: ST, NYSE: HUB-B, NYSE: HAR, Nasdaq: GNRC, Nasdaq: DTSI, NYSE: FN, NYSE: TCH, NYSE: LXU, Nasdaq: UEIC, NYSE: VPG, Nasdaq: KLIC, Nasdaq: KLAC, Nasdaq: COHR, Nasdaq: DSPG, NYSE: PLT, Nasdaq: BBOX, NYSE: EMC, NYSE: BAC, Nasdaq: ALTR, Nasdaq: ISRG, NYSE: FRX, NYSE: AOS, NYSE: AEP, Nasdaq: ASRV, Nasdaq: ASTE, NYSE: BMI, NYSE: BK, Nasdaq: BBND, NYSE: BSX, Nasdaq: CREE, Nasdaq: CYBI, Nasdaq: DTLK, Nasdaq: DEAR, NYSE: DPZ, Nasdaq: EFSC, Nasdaq: ESBF, Nasdaq: FBCM, Nasdaq: FLXS, Nasdaq: FLTTE, Nasdaq: FFIC, AMEX: FRS, Nasdaq: FSII, Nasdaq: FULT, Nasdaq: GILD, NYSE: GS, Nasdaq: HA, NYSE: HDB, NYSE: HNP, Nasdaq: HUBG, NYSE: ITW, Nasdaq: JNPR, Nasdaq: MRTN, Nasdaq: MICC, NYSE: MLI, Nasdaq: ONAV, NYSE: OMC, NYSE: PH, Nasdaq: PWOD, Nasdaq: PVSW, NYSE: PII, Nasdaq: RCRC, Nasdaq: RNST, Nasdaq: SONC, Nasdaq: SFST, NYSE: STT, Nasdaq: STSA, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: MNI, NYSE: NYT, NYSE: TUP, Nasdaq: TWIN, NYSE: UNF, NYSE: UNH, NYSE: WCN, NYSE: WFT, Nasdaq: WABC, NYSE: WDC, Nasdaq: WSCI, Nasdaq: YHOO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) Smart PR Effort and Our Outlook



technology stock analystApple (Nasdaq: AAPL) smartly tried to control the impact of the announcement that its idea-man and CEO Steve Jobs would need to take a medical leave of absence. The pre-release of this unfortunate information, ahead of the blowout earnings numbers, were meant to allow a free flow of funds to occur on the good news. If both pieces of data were released at the same time, the effect would very likely have been neutral to negative for AAPL shares. If only The Greek were focused Tuesday on Apple, we might have offered you an opportunity to benefit from beaten down call options before they stabilized and recovered. So now the best we can do is prepare you for the decision tree before you and the prospects for Apple, short, medium and long-term.

While it's clear what Apple's PR people were up to this past weekend (basically the best possible handling of the worst possible situation), what they may not be able to stave off no matter how hard they try is investor realization of the risk of the long-term loss of Jobs to Apple and its shares. Though the company is doing its best to make this seem bearable, we suggest investors will increasingly question whether it is or not. As that uncertainty plays out and gains play, pressure should build on Apple shares, and so any momentum to the upside would seem to offer wise opportunity to seek a new driver for technology born capital investment gains - thus to exit AAPL and replace it with something else near-term.

Apple shares were up $4.25 or 1.25% after hours Tuesday after reporting EPS Tuesday afternoon, but only after falling $7.83 (2.25%) through the day Tuesday, the first day of trading since the best-timed release of Jobs' unfortunate news. AAPL shares had held their gain through much of Wednesday, but heading into the close Apple shares had moved back into negative territory. At the close, the stock had to account for a loss of near 1%.

It took this long for good reason, as the company posted blowout earnings, exceeding analysts' expectations by nearly 19%. The EPS gain was an astounding 78% greater than the year ago quarter. The company's quarterly net income, for one quarter and after expenses, was six billion dollars. Apple's sales increased 71%, to $26.7 billion in the quarter. Granted, this was the most important quarter for the consumer oriented firm, but still, those are blowout numbers, period.

Thus, Apple's PR people had quite a situation before them with regard to how to manage the news that their iconic CEO would need to leave day-to-day operations to take care of himself. Given his importance to Apple, and the perception of his importance to Apple, this became more than just a problem of how to author a public release to best serve the man. Rather, it needed to manage how investors, both current and prospective might react to this clearly unplanned division of the company and its brilliant CEO.

You'll note that in the short release, a letter Jobs' authored to employees, he states that he will remain CEO and that the 2011 operating strategy had already been laid out. In other words, he'll still be actively involved, but off-site for the most part, while he takes care of his health problem. Secondly, there's reassurance in the fact that all the important product planning has occurred already for this year, so whatever magic might be lost, perhaps another amazing year lay in store for Camelot in 2011 at least.

I know where I would focus my product attention if I were Apple, but I'm still saving that idea for a later article I had better get to soon. While AAPL shares are drifting now, be careful not to underestimate the company's marketing savvy, nor its PR prescience. Another release or important news item might lay in store for just that scenario. That said, I would expect the company to let the news of Jobs' temporary leave sink in and digest completely before any such release were made. Thus, I would be taking short-term profits in AAPL, outside of valuation and on just an artistic point of view (versus scientific). I'm not even going to talk valuation in this article, because I don't expect it will matter given the special situation.

Besides the idea-man issue, what can make a seemingly cheap stock get cheaper is when it runs the risk of losing market share. It's hard for an innovation leader of Apple's size to keep growing, and it gets increasingly easier for such a firm to fall off the top of the hill. I only need reference all the competitors and products out there that appeal to the non-fanatical fans of Apple. These are market share threats that are being discounted by investment pros of any worth right now, considering that the genius Jobs has been stumbled. That said, let me remind you that over the medium term, beware the risk of already prepared corporate plans and a still savvy PR team at Apple. The next great catalyst for Apple and stopper of a stock slide could be just an email delivery away.

Short-Short Term: Sell
Medium Term: Buy
Long Term: Not So Clear Yet - Hold


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Disclosure: I have no notable position in any relative stock

Article should interest investors in Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Corning (NYSE: GLW), Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), Harris (NYSE: HRS), Tellabs (Nasdaq: TLAB), Sony (NYSE: SNE), Philips (NYSE: PHG), Panasonic (NYSE: PC), Hitachi (NYSE: HIT), Sensata (NYSE: ST), Hubbell (NYSE: HUB.B), Harman (NYSE: HAR), Generac (Nasdaq: GNRC), DTS (Nasdaq: DTSI), Fabrinet (NYSE: FN), Technicolor (NYSE: TCH), LSB Industries (NYSE: LXU), Universal Electronics (Nasdaq: UEIC), Vishay Precision (NYSE: VPG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Addicted Market Could Crash Off High

addicted market could crash off highs
Coming Down Off Liquidity High

Wall Street Greek Technical Strategist Steven Ferguson offers a fresh look at the perilous technical high wire act the market seems to be performing, and he warns again of serious trouble signs in the charts.


Relative Tickers: NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: MS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, Nasdaq: TROW, NYSE: STT, NYSE: STD, NYSE: DB, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: JNS, NYSE: BX, NYSE: BLK, Nasdaq: ETFC, Nasdaq: TSCM, Nasdaq: AMTD, Nasdaq: MEMKX, Nasdaq: GECMX, Nasdaq: JEVOX, Nasdaq: PEMAX, NYSE: EEM, NYSE: VWO, Nasdaq: VEIEX, Nasdaq: ADRE, Nasdaq: PEBIX, Nasdaq: GMCEX, NYSE: MSF, NYSE: EEV, Nasdaq: REMGX, NYSE: GMM, NYSE: EDZ, AMEX: ETF, NYSE: FEO, NYSE: ESD, NYSE: MSD, NYSE: EMF, NYSE: TEI, Nasdaq: EMIF, NYSE: EFN, NYSE: EMT, NYSE: PCY, NYSE: PXH, NYSE: GMF, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: GML, NYSE: GMM, NYSE: EWX, NYSE: GAF, NYSE: EUF, NYSE: EET, Nasdaq: ABEMX, Nasdaq: AEMGX, Nasdaq: APERX, Nasdaq: PMGAX, Nasdaq: PMCIX, Nasdaq: AOTAX, Nasdaq: AOTCX, Nasdaq: AOTDX, Nasdaq: AEMPX, Nasdaq: AOTIX, Nasdaq: AEMEX, Nasdaq: AAMRX, Nasdaq: AEMFX, Nasdaq: AAEPX, Nasdaq: AEMMX, Nasdaq: ACKBX, Nasdaq: ACECX, Nasdaq: AMKIX, Nasdaq: TWMIX, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: PIZ, NYSE: PIE, NYSE: PDP, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, NYSE: SDK, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: QQQQ, Nasdaq: HTOAX, Nasdaq: HTOTX, Nasdaq: HTOBX, Nasdaq: JTCIX, Nasdaq: JTCNX, Nasdaq: JTCAX.

Addicted Market Could Crash Off High



technical strategistFor a market propelled to new recovery highs by the same liquid(ity) drug that has fueled every major asset bubble in the past, and that has led to the current credit crisis hangover, the moment of truth has arrived. Either a correction will begin this week, or it will be postponed to another date several weeks or even months in the future, with the potential for drop only becoming more dramatic as that date with destiny is forestalled.

Either the S&P will fall below key support at 1260 or it will rise a minimum of 30 points higher. Should the S&P remain above 1291, I believe traders should cover open short positions.

Major indices closed Friday at the top of a trend-line that forms the upper boundary of a bearish rising wedge, depicted in the chart below. The rising wedge has formed within a larger trend channel. The more times that prices traverse between the lower and upper boundary of that channel, the weaker market internals have become. It is under these circumstances that we most often observe the Hindenburg Omen indicator.

S&P 500 large cap index rising bearish wedge

As well, the Elliot Wave structure, depicted in the chart below, now satisfies pattern identification rules for completion of the rally. Note that the entire rally is comprised of an A-B-C wave structure, where the index is presently completing wave C. Wave C is annotated in blue, with the five sub-waves each depicted individually. Importantly, the magnitude and duration of the move accomplished by the fifth wave in a five wave pattern now satisfies optimal criteria for pattern completion. And although Elliot Wave rules would have allowed the fifth wave to terminate at any time, such a pattern rarely truncates before the length of wave five equals that of wave one. Such is now the case, as can be seen through visual comparison of sub-waves 1 and 5 in the chart below.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index Elliot Wave Count

We also note that an important and reliable Phi Turn window has now passed. The clock is ticking on a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. Credit turmoil continues to churn even as the upchuck is swabbed down the financial drain. If markets continue to rise significantly above Friday's close, the next target is 2.5% higher again at the top of the trend channel. For a correction to begin in earnest, support levels must be penetrated. Greek readers must remain vigilant.

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Disclosure: I am short S&P 500 Index Futures

Article may interest investors in NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: MS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, Nasdaq: TROW, NYSE: STT, NYSE: STD, NYSE: DB, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: JNS, NYSE: BX, NYSE: BLK, Nasdaq: MEMKX, Nasdaq: GECMX, Nasdaq: JEVOX, Nasdaq: PEMAX, NYSE: EEM, NYSE: VWO, Nasdaq: VEIEX, Nasdaq: ADRE, Nasdaq: PEBIX, Nasdaq: GMCEX, NYSE: MSF, NYSE: EEV, Nasdaq: REMGX, NYSE: GMM, NYSE: EDZ, AMEX: ETF, NYSE: FEO, NYSE: ESD, NYSE: MSD, NYSE: EMF, NYSE: TEI, Nasdaq: EMIF, NYSE: EFN, NYSE: EMT, NYSE: PCY, NYSE: PXH, NYSE: GMF, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: GML, NYSE: GMM, NYSE: EWX, NYSE: GAF, NYSE: EUF, NYSE: EET, Nasdaq: ABEMX, Nasdaq: AEMGX, Nasdaq: APERX, Nasdaq: PMGAX, Nasdaq: PMCIX, Nasdaq: AOTAX, Nasdaq: AOTCX, Nasdaq: AOTDX, Nasdaq: AEMPX, Nasdaq: AOTIX, Nasdaq: AEMEX, Nasdaq: AAMRX, Nasdaq: AEMFX, Nasdaq: AAEPX, Nasdaq: AEMMX, Nasdaq: ACKBX, Nasdaq: ACECX, Nasdaq: AMKIX, Nasdaq: TWMIX, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: PIZ, NYSE: PIE, NYSE: PDP, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, NYSE: SDK, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: QQQQ, Nasdaq: HTOAX, Nasdaq: HTOTX, Nasdaq: HTOBX, Nasdaq: JTCIX, Nasdaq: JTCNX, Nasdaq: JTCAX.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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