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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Saturday, June 29, 2013

Apple Could Benefit from Window Undressing in July

window dressing
By The Greek:

It sounds strange to say but Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) turned into a portfolio pariah over the last year, with the stock down 31% since the end of last June. It sank even further during Q2, and now everyone knows about it from Wall Street to Main Street. So, as strange as it may sound, it is possible Apple took some damage from window dressing before the close of Q2. After all, the stock was down 12% in June alone. Therefore, it is also possible that portfolio managers will be buying it back in July, and so the stock might just benefit from “reverse window dressing” or undressing in July.

Apple


Window dressing is when portfolio managers pick up stocks that have performed especially well just before the close of a reporting period. Likewise, they may dump losing stocks, especially high profile losers, before the close of a reporting period. In so doing, they can show a high profile winner and do not have to show losing securities on their financial statement of holdings. So when Joe Investor receives his statement showing him what his hired portfolio manager found savory, he does not see that stink of a name everyone hates on the list but does see that big name winner everyone loves, like say for instance Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA). That makes for a reduced possibility of Joe liquidating his stake in the mutual fund or other portfolio. In turn, that means the portfolio manager will not lose his management fee from those assets under management, and so he has some incentive.

It’s counterintuitive to value investing logic, yes, since many see value in beaten down shares, especially in a name like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), which many believe has extreme value appeal here. Apple now trades at a P/E of 9.1X the analysts’ consensus estimate for fiscal year 2014 (September) EPS of $43.62. Matched against 21% long-term growth expectations gives AAPL a deeply discounted PEG ratio of 0.4X. Still, it happens and it affects capital flows and stock prices, and so it may have contributed in making a cheap stock even cheaper in June.

For Apple (AAPL), I think many of you will agree that it has been a lack of news about any new disruptive product that has more meaningfully hurt the shares over the last year. I authored an article about that theory entitled, For Apple, No News is Bad News way back when. If investors were enamored with the company, it would not be in the position to be considered for removal for window dressing purposes in the first place. However, it was in that position in June, and may have been removed by a critical number of professionals as a result.

Now, heading into Q3 and July all those investors who believe in the name for the second half for whatever reason, have impetus to buy. Even if they were not window dressers, they know others were and will drive capital flow no matter what they do or do not do. So the prospect of other investors pushing the stock up from this most recent bottom here could be an important fear factor in getting capital back into the stock now. It’s a trader’s hypothesis; there’s no doubt about that, but it is still a viable a near-term reason to consider buying Apple here.

You may also enjoy:

Senate Slams Apple on Tax Avoidance
Is Apple Un-American?

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Fed Talk is Cheap

Narayana Kocherlakota Minneapolis Fed
By The Greek:

Stocks were higher Wednesday despite a sharp downward revision to Q1 GDP and another report of decreased mortgage activity on spiking interest rates. The catalyst for stocks was some soft comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota and others. Well, talk is cheap; the action of the Federal Reserve to pull away its asset purchase programs prematurely speaks louder than words. As a result, I do not expect this latest support to hold unless it is followed by a change in policy.

Security
June 26 Change
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+1.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+1.0%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.9%
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
+0.7%
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)
+1.5%


How desperate must traders be to be bidding up stocks on some contradictory comments from a regional Federal Reserve Bank representative when the truth about the economy shows it’s not as secure as the FOMC believes it to be?

The Truth

First quarter GDP was revised significantly lower this morning in its third revision, which usually does not bring with it major change. I’ll leave it to the reader to run the regression analysis to prove this, and trust in my own observations over the last lifetime on this one. GDP is revised several times, and so by the third revision not much change is typical. Yet, Q1 GDP was cut to 1.8% growth from its recent reporting at 2.4% (that is a big difference for the mathematically challenged). The revised growth rate is consistent with the expectations of the World Bank and Conference Board for the U.S. economy this year, but less perfectly matched with the latest Fed view for 2.3% to 2.6% growth. Furthermore, judging by the trend over the last three Fed prints on this, the Fed’s economic forecast will be cut to 2.0% to 2.6% at next printing, in my view. Eventually, it might even make sense.

In its economic report the government stated: ”The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, the increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was less than previously estimated, and exports and imports are now estimated to have declined.”

Add to that sour news the fact that mortgage rates spiked even higher last week, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today. For the week ending June 21, the MBA indicated that its Market Composite Index for mortgage activity fell by 3.0% to its lowest level since November 2011. Mortgage rates spiked last week after the Federal Reserve’s press conference announcing the tapering plan for the asset purchase programs. Here’s what happened to rates in the latest week:

Mortgage Loan
Rate
Change
30-Yr. Fixed Conventional
4.46%
+29 Basis Points
30-Yr. Fixed Jumbo
4.52%
+29 BPS
30-Yr. Fixed FHA Sponsored
4.20%
+35 BPS
15-Year Mortgage
3.55%
+25 BPS
5/1 ARMS
3.06%
+25 BPS


Perhaps not so surprisingly, Purchase Activity actually increased in the latest reported period, as some buyers on the fence rushed to lock in as low a rate as they could. Some believe rising rates will increase mortgage activity, and while I agree this could be a short-term phenomenon, it will not be a long-lasting sustainable economic positive or a catalyst for growth in the housing market.

So why then are stocks rising counter to intuition?

Fed Speak

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota wanted to clarify what he thought was a misinterpretation of the market since the FOMC Monetary Policy release and press conference. So on June 24, he published this clarifying statement and held a conference call to discuss the issue. He also appeared on CNBC this morning to discuss the issue, where I believe he caught the market’s attention.

President Kocherlakota’s statements were meaningful, mostly because they seem to give the Fed an out of this horrible trajectory it has decided on. The fact that this event occurred showed that there is some pressure on the Fed today about how markets have digested the message. Therefore, it may eventually react to stop the trend in mortgage and interest rates, hopefully in time to stop serious economic damage. But until it does, none of this matters.

The market believes the Fed is acting prematurely and taking away a critical support from the real estate recovery and from the still vulnerable economy. Interest rates will continue to rise as a result and the Fed thus destroys its own economic work. Talk is cheap, and actions speak louder than words. So the Fed should accept that the efficient market has spoken and that it was a mistake to taper asset purchase programs over the near-term, period.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Consumer Confidence Will Dive When 401K Statements Arrive

401K
By The Greek:

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence soared in June to a five-year high, but be careful, as this is only sustainable until passive investors receive their 401K statements next month. The consumer mood is greatly shaped by the personal wealth perspective.

The Conference Board reported the Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 81.4 in June, up from 74.3 in May. Some of the gain was due to improvement in the Present Situation Index, which rose to 69.2, from 64.8. However, a good portion of the improvement came on a gain in the Expectations Index, which improved greatly to 89.5, from 80.6.

I’m always wary of gains driven by expectations, as they are built on hope more than substance, and so can disappear as quickly as they come. In this case, that’s exactly what I expect to happen in a few weeks when passive investors across corporate America receive their 401K statements. The statements will show a disruption in the returns they had grown used to recently. Such disruption is especially important because Americans feel confident when they feel wealthy, as evidenced by the “wealth effect,” which is most often related to real estate values.

Market Security
June-to-Date
Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-3.4%
+11.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-3.0%
+13.3%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-4.5%
+7.7%


As you can see, stocks have not done well in June versus the returns investors had gotten used to this year and last. Yet, consumer relative shares are higher today on the consumer confidence news, with the two top retailers online and on the street, Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), up 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively today. Each of the two stocks has had a good run through the economic recovery of the last couple years. Furthermore, both Amazon.com (AMZN) and Wal-Mart (WMT) have benefited from offering lower cost goods into a still laboring economy.



A second bit of retail data reached the wire today as well. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported its Weekly Chain Store Sales data. For the period ending June 22, same-store sales rose 1.1%, versus the prior week increase of 0.3%. On a year-to-year basis, sales were up just 1.6%, versus the prior week’s yearly gain of 2.5%. While inflation is low now, these growth rates are only just barely meeting rising prices, and that is not a sign of health, though possibly a good sign for Wal-Mart and Amazon.com, which cater to value shoppers.

For economists and market enthusiasts, the takeaway from the Consumer Confidence Index should be that this might not last given the new paradigm the Fed has laid out for stocks. In my weekly report at my blog, I warned investors to beware of dated data this week, which would provide false comfort to markets. This data point is not one of those as it is measuring a current period, but it is at risk of change near-term due to the likely change in consumer mood that should come with altering perspectives of personal wealth as 401K reports are received. So, in conclusion, I advise those made confident by today’s report to temper their enthusiasm.

Retail Relative Securities
June 25 Change 3:20 PM ET
SPDR S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT)
+1.8%
Consumer Discretionary SPDR (NYSE: XLY)
+0.9%
Macy’s (NYSE: M)
+1.1%
J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP)
+4.0%
Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN)
+2.2%
Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS)
+1.8%
Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD)
+0.1%


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

wedding store

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Monday, June 17, 2013

Builder Confidence Soars – Don’t Believe the Hype

bull fight
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) today reported its Housing Market Index (HMI) for the month of June, and it marked an important shift. For the first time since falling under the break-even mark of 50.0 at the start of the real estate collapse, the HMI rose back above it today. However, a closer look at the data shows it remains suspect and unreliable as a forecasting tool.

housing blogger
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Builder Confidence


The HMI surged 8 points, rising to a mark of 52 for June. The last time it rose that much was in 2002, so this is strange to begin with. It’s the first time the index sat above breakeven since April 2006. Each of the three components of the index increased, though take note of the much lower level of the index measuring actual prospective buyer traffic. I view both the other two metrics as being speculative in nature or prospective, but the “prospective buyer traffic” figure actually accounts for what builders are really seeing in terms of activity. The current sales conditions index is measuring sentiment about “conditions,” not sales.


June Level
June Change
Housing Market Index
52
+8
Current Sales Conditions
56
+8
Expectations Index
61
+9
Prospective Buyer Traffic
40
+7


Regionally speaking, the component indexes seem to say builders are buyers into the “grass is greener” philosophy. Because, when measuring their own operating regions, it seems they’re not seeing the best of circumstances. Otherwise, explain why each regional index sits under 50 while the national measure is above it.


June Level
June Change
Northeast
37
+1
Midwest
47
+3
South
46
+4
West
48
-1


Builder confidence gained on what the NAHB chairman said was a lack of inventory in the existing home market. That’s a positive way to look at it from a biased industry viewpoint, but I see something else catalyzing the sudden surge. Builders are just coming out of the spring selling season, where business is generally better than the rest of the year. Also, they’ve likely seen some buyers pushed into action on the sudden surge in mortgage rates recently. However, I disagree, as I do not see that happening based on the real mortgage activity data; in fact I see the opposite occurring. Last week’s increase in mortgage activity was a flawed data point in my opinion. Anyway, activity driven by rising rates would be from the buyers on the fence, of which the number is limited. So such a surge would not be sustainable, and would not be driven by underlying economic catalyst, but instead by fear of missing the opportunity.

Housing stocks surged today on the news, but I do not see a good enough reason for it here.

Housing Security
6/17/13 thru Noon
52-Weeks
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB)
+1.9%
+55%
iShares Dow US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)
+0.1%
+9%
PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM)
+3.6%
+140%
K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH)
+3.2%
+180%
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI)
+2.6%
+54%
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL)
+3.8%
+35%
Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV)
+2.6%
+158%
Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH)
+2.7%
+53%
Lennar (NYSE: LEN)
+1.7%
+53%


Let’s not forget that the index is only at about breakeven, and that the perspectives of a large number of smaller builders surveyed is keeping it down. It’s the larger builders, who have gained market share on the failures of the smaller players, who have benefited most from the crisis shakeout. That is behind their numbers as much as anything else, because the general levels of activity, while improving, is not all that great yet. In any event, these stocks have had a great run, but they are probably extended and still vulnerable here.

The economy is slipping currently, in my view, and mortgage rates are moving in the wrong direction too quickly. This week, the Fed had better fix the mess it created in mid-May, or mortgage rates will continue rising and potentially derail the real estate recovery.

In conclusion, there is enough suspect data in the HMI to question the message that is being received by housing stocks today. With the Fed meeting being the obvious determining factor this week, I’m not buying housing stocks on this news, and recommend investors wait a few days before placing bets. We need the Fed to cut its economic forecast and hedge on its recent hawkish commentary, so mortgage rates will back up and the real estate recovery will be secured.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Thursday, June 13, 2013

Phoenix Real Estate Investors: Time to Take Profits

Phoenix homes for sale
Let’s step back 4 years to a time when the “Great Recession” was in full force and Phoenix, Arizona had fallen from the #1 builder market in the United States to one of the worst MSA’s (Metropolitan Statistical Area) in the nation. The Metro Phoenix Builder Community had completed over 60,000 new homes in 2006, a record year. Builders in October 2008 had thousands of finished homes completed and ready for delivery when “The Lehman Moment” changed everything.

Phoenix Real Estate


Michael Douville
Builders, including major companies like PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) and K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH), had a cascade of buyers refusing to close and their finished homes became “Specs Available,” or expensive inventory on short-term construction notes that would eventually no longer belong to the builder, but become Real Estate Owned (REO) of many local and national lenders like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) listed a low of less than 6000 available properties in 2005 to a ballooning inventory of over 59,700 properties for sale and 9800 properties for lease in late 2008. The housing industry in Phoenix was in a depression with a glut of new and existing homes.

To exasperate the problem, over 300,000 individuals working in or connected to housing and new construction left the Valley of the Sun in search of other employment. In Phoenix almost everyone was connected to housing, which included the obvious roofers and framers, but also title and escrow officers, loan officers and loan underwriters, thousands of real estate agents and brokerage houses, surveyors, and the not so obvious furniture , electronic, decorating centers, and even movers. Tens of thousands lost their jobs and most had their income severally curtailed. The loss of business was felt everywhere in Metro Phoenix. Incomes and available capital were declining while underwriting standards for new loans was rising and excluding buyer after buyer. Phoenix had crashed and was burning.

As with any commodity, the law of supply and demand dictated terms in the market place, and the over-inflated prices tumbled past fair value to in some instances 50-60% below replacement costs. As costs declined, the over-valued status of Phoenix changed to an under-valued market, and then to an extremely undervalued market. Many local business people and employees alike were experiencing the loss of income, and many local homeowners were burning through their savings and capital to pay monthly expenses. Eventually, many depleted entire nest eggs while their real estate wealth evaporated as prices declined well below mortgage values, condemning them to future foreclosure or short sale. Incomes, down payments, and then credit issues excluded many potential buyers and shrunk the buying population, further reducing demand. The cleansing process is brutal, but necessary in the business cycle, and the excesses needed to be removed in order for the eventual recovery. Prices plummeted to ridiculous levels because there were very few buyers. Enter the original courageous and foresighted investors.

Everyone knew buying real estate was a very bad idea; however, the properties were priced below cost, and if unemotionally approached, were very compelling. Further, rental rates had declined about 15%, but properties had dropped 60-70%. Although rental rates were lower, the acquisition cost was much lower. So were operating expenses including: repairs, insurance costs, taxes, and long-term mortgage rates. Rents for the now distressed and depressed properties purchased at much lower prices were cash yielding investments. The gut wrenching declines, the turmoil of speculators buying high to sell higher, and the builders and developers caught in the final capitulation doomed the average homeowner. The simple indicators of value: Own vs. Rent; the Gross Rent Multiplier; and the Affordability Indexes all shifted wildly from indicating an overbought market to a hugely undervalued one. Cash flows began to yield 9-15%.

Much of the buying public had already purchased in the frantic years of 2004 to 2007 and was trapped in underwater homes. There was a void in the buying pool. Prices and returns were exceptionally compelling as a result. My recommendation for several years has been unabashedly bullish. Investors in Phoenix have helped clear the inventory and pave the way for a fresh set of homebuyers to replace the rental homes with owner occupied. Former homeowners that liquidated their properties via the short sale process are becoming eligible once again to purchase.

As demand began to enter the Phoenix market, prices rose steadily and have recovered a portion of the decline. Many early investors have seen cash purchases double and those that assumed more risk with leverage have realized huge capital gains as well as monthly cash flows in the range of 5% on cash to over 8%+ levered. The investment in Phoenix real estate has been exceptionally profitable. It may be time to take some profits now, and those properties not sold should be evaluated for long-term mortgages.

Real estate is local; however, real estate is economically sensitive. The economy may be heading for difficult times and if the economy enters a recession as Charles Nenner and the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) predict, and as our site's founder warns is highly possible, a better buying opportunity awaits just a few years away.

A specifically aggressive, but overall cautious approach may be the appropriate theme for the foreseeable future. A good price on a good property is usually profitable, but the low hanging fruit has been picked and much of the recovery is priced in current values. Low long-term rates indicate more potential for future capital gains, but rental rates are stabilizing indicating a normalization of rental growth rates. Some properties are gems and should be kept for the long-term; marginal properties may be considered for liquidation.

In 2006, I reviewed the market dynamics with my clients and advocated selling as I believed the direction of the market was down. Enormous profits had been gained. Most did not heed my advice and in fairness, I was 9 months early to the peak. Now once again enormous profits have been gained; my advice is to take some profits.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Hooked on Economic Happy Pills

happy pillsBefore U.S. markets opened Tuesday, markets across Europe and Asia were already markedly lower. It’s because equity investors hooked on central bank stimulants want more and more to stay high. We received two bits of information Tuesday that reinforce this argument. But as I reviewed the economic data from Japan and Germany, I see the dealers still serving us. It’s just that we seem to want and need more and more, as we are hooked on happy pills.

Fed criticOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) issued its latest monetary policy Tuesday, and it was full of colorful pills for our addicted markets to swallow. The BOJ’s statement shows all sorts of creative economic engineering efforts in an asset purchase program that makes our Federal Reserve’s efforts look simple.

The BOJ is doing more than buying treasuries, and it has gone beyond the buying of mortgage backed securities (MBS) like our Fed. The BOJ is buying treasuries, yes, but it’s also buying ETFs and Japanese REITs. Imagine if our Fed were buying the shares of mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) and American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC). It goes a step beyond the controversial effort our Federal Reserve is applying, and is bringing leverage into central banking. The BOJ is also buying corporate bonds, tying the economy into one big knot that it may not be able to untie quickly enough someday.

Yet, equities across the globe were bothered Tuesday, because of concern about not enough being done. Investors wanted to see the BOJ buying longer dated securities. In other words, junkie investors want a higher high, because they think this one is not enough. I would have to disagree. These are extraordinary measures that show desperation and introduce risk to at least the Japanese, and probably the rest of us if they are accepted into the toolbox of central banks globally. It’s like our Fed efforts in MBS were a stepping stone drug into the much more dangerous cocaine and methamphetamines being used in Japan. What will come next, the economic equivalent of dangerous new “bathing salts”? I am unsettled inside about it all. We are getting hooked on economic happy pills, and it is unnatural and dangerous.

Meanwhile, the global junkie is worried today that German logic could kill the party. The German Constitutional Court is reviewing whether recent European Central Bank and other euro area crisis management measures are legal in Germany. One of those measures is ECB bond purchases, which was critical in turning the tide for stocks in Europe. So, investors see this German debate as a threat to their supply. Druggies do not fret, though, because the Germans cannot afford to cut you off.

Look at how this economic mayhem has affected markets today:

Market Security
Through 10:00 AM ET
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-1.0%
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-1.0%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-1.1%
iShares S&P Europe (NYSE: IEV)
-1.2%
iShares S&P Asia 50 (NYSE: AIA)
-1.5%


Friends, we are hooked on economic happy pills. Instead of seeking higher highs, we need to find natural ways to make us happy, through fiscal policies that reinforce economies. Improved trade & tax laws and the better containment of runaway funds are a start. We may yet get there, but we are currently caught in the middle of an economic drug war, and we have to get some help to cure this addiction.

Like this report? See more at www.WallStreetGreek.com.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Sunday, May 26, 2013

Is Apple Un-American?

American flagLast Monday evening, Senators Carl Levin and John McCain slammed Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and seemed to imply the company was un-American in alleged tax avoidance. The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations published a statement Monday night along with a 40-page memorandum with its findings and recommendations. A hearing followed on Tuesday, with Apple CEO Tim Cook and other executives facing a barrage of questions that attempted to find fault with Apple. The Senate is alleging that Apple has actively sought to avoid paying taxes. That very well may be true, but it is only excessive taxes that Apple is avoiding, and that does not make Apple un-American. After all, doesn’t every American seek to pay as few dollars in taxes as is legally possible? After my own study of the situation, I’ve concluded that Apple has done absolutely nothing wrong. Furthermore, I assess that Apple has no unfair advantage over smaller competitors in the United States because of the construct of its holding companies, as Senator McCain suggested it might. Finally, Apple CEO Tim Cook scored highly in the defense of his company, and so Apple should remain a favorite of patriotic Americans.

Markos N. KaminisOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Apple Un-American?


The taxes in question are on monies earned overseas, which have already been taxed in the nations within which they have been earned. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is simply choosing to keep capital in one overseas location, Ireland, instead of within many individual nations. And it is not sending excess cash home, due to the unreasonable 35% tax rate it would be forced to pay for simply repatriating the capital. So Apple (AAPL) is basically saving money for its shareholders with smart tax planning. It’s a two-pronged strategy. Apple is avoiding paying excess taxes to Ireland, first and foremost. Secondarily, it is not costing its shareholders unnecessarily by sending excess cash back to the U.S. for extra taxation. However, Apple does pay taxes on the income it earns on the investment of its money in Ireland.

What bothers regulators most is that it appears to them that Apple has gamed the tax laws of the United States and Ireland in order to exempt itself from paying taxes to either nation. In effect, it has placed three subsidiaries in a sort of state of tax limbo, with no nation having legal right to any taxes on hundreds of billions of what could have unnecessarily become taxable income if Apple sent the money home.

The details of the game work like this. Because Apple’s subsidiaries, Apple Operations International (AOI) and Apple Sales International (ASI), are incorporated in Ireland, they are free of the legal reach of the U.S. tax authority. And because these subsidiaries are managed and controlled (an Irish tax concept) by the parent company, which is located outside of Ireland, they are exempt of legal tax obligation to Ireland as well. A third subsidiary with no legal tax residency status, Apple Operations Europe (AOE), has reportedly helped the company to save some more money. According to the Senators, from 2009 to 2012, the company’s tax haven constructs have allowed it to save approximately $44 billion in taxes. Senator Levin seemed to imply that the holding companies are merely for show, set up as tax havens, by asking Apple’s somewhat shaken Tax Operations Head, Phillip Bullock, where the operations were truly “managed and controlled” from. Bullock and Cook fended him off well though, because they made both legal and logical sense. The companies are operated out of Ireland, but of course, the final say and direction comes from California.

Now, no matter how badly the United States could use these funds today, they are not really due to our nation. After all, these are monies earned on overseas sales, and so fall under the jurisdiction of other nations, and taxes are paid to those nations. Senator Levin of Michigan said Apple sought the “Holy Grail of tax avoidance,” by levering tax loopholes to avoid paying any taxes anywhere. Senator McCain said, “The proper place for the bulk of Apple’s creative energy ought to go into its innovative products and services, not in its tax department.” He also noted that even though Apple brags about being one of America’s most important corporate tax payers, it is also one of its greatest tax avoiders. With all due respect to Senator Levin, whom I’m glad is serving our nation and in the role he is serving, because of his shrewd legal sense, I have determined that these allegations are exaggerations of reality. Also, in my view, Senator McCain was not fully committed to fighting this battle yet, and open to discussion.

According to the Senate’s inquiries, Apple along with many other large corporations like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and others have avoided paying taxes. Yes, I agree that Apple has avoided paying them to Ireland, thanks to Irish tax law, and that Apple has returned value to its shareholders instead. Many if not most of those equity stakeholders are found on American soil and have benefited from those saved dollars or euros. Unfortunately, in the end, what the government may actually accomplish is to embolden and empower the EU to flex its muscle against these important American companies. Recently, at one of its meetings, G7 members agreed to target tax evasion, and look what the Irish Times published last week. Are we now handing them Apple on a stick?

Because of the importance of these companies, they have leveraged their influence to gain favorable tax deals in exchange for placing stakes into the ground of nations like Ireland, who are willing and welcome to them. In return, the company employs people in those nations and makes those nations more marketable to other companies. It also encourages domestic businessmen to stay home when incorporating. So, it is not just a matter of taking; Apple and others also return something of value to nations like Ireland. Also, I gleaned from the inquiry that Apple does pay something on the order of 2% to Ireland by contract negotiated between the nation and the company. It seems that Apple has managed to leverage some of its own strength to bless Ireland with its presence. Plus, it employs roughly 4,000 Irishmen.

In this case, I think the government is wrong in its implication of wrongdoing. Furthermore, John McCain’s suggestion that Apple has a special and unfair ability in its tax construct that smaller businesses cannot match is wrong. There is nothing to stop American companies doing business overseas from setting up similar arrangements, but it is true that they may not get the same deal with Ireland. The world is not a fair place though, and some economies of scale are hard earned and gained through cunning and skill. That is capitalism and a reality of the competitive environment, not illegal activity.

If Congress wants to squeeze some more juice out of our most fruitful oranges to pay for our debts, then it should find other means to do so. Tim Cook expressed a willingness to bear some increased cost if our government would reform corporate tax law. The cost of repatriating capital back to the United States is excessive, and corporate tax rates are the highest in the world. Cook said that Apple would repatriate at a fair tax rate, but the current level of corporate rates and the rules regarding repatriation put American companies at disadvantage globally.

I conclude that not only is Apple not un-American, but in fact Apple exemplifies what is American in that it pays its due taxes and operates smartly under our capitalist scheme. It does what is most value creating and value preserving for its shareholders and so maximizes its value. Finally, I want to also note something about Tim Cook. In my previous article I said that this would be a defining moment for Tim Cook, one that he would be remembered for. I said he could be seen as a winner or a loser depending on how events unfolded. Well, he came out of this inquiry not only as a winner, but he preserved the Apple brand in the process and defended its image in the eyes of patriots. Apple’s competitors should garner nothing from this day, as long as those telling the story understood what unfolded. At least this author did, and so I hope you are reading this clear reflection of reality.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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