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Saturday, June 29, 2013

Apple Could Benefit from Window Undressing in July

window dressing
By The Greek:

It sounds strange to say but Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) turned into a portfolio pariah over the last year, with the stock down 31% since the end of last June. It sank even further during Q2, and now everyone knows about it from Wall Street to Main Street. So, as strange as it may sound, it is possible Apple took some damage from window dressing before the close of Q2. After all, the stock was down 12% in June alone. Therefore, it is also possible that portfolio managers will be buying it back in July, and so the stock might just benefit from “reverse window dressing” or undressing in July.

Apple


Window dressing is when portfolio managers pick up stocks that have performed especially well just before the close of a reporting period. Likewise, they may dump losing stocks, especially high profile losers, before the close of a reporting period. In so doing, they can show a high profile winner and do not have to show losing securities on their financial statement of holdings. So when Joe Investor receives his statement showing him what his hired portfolio manager found savory, he does not see that stink of a name everyone hates on the list but does see that big name winner everyone loves, like say for instance Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA). That makes for a reduced possibility of Joe liquidating his stake in the mutual fund or other portfolio. In turn, that means the portfolio manager will not lose his management fee from those assets under management, and so he has some incentive.

It’s counterintuitive to value investing logic, yes, since many see value in beaten down shares, especially in a name like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), which many believe has extreme value appeal here. Apple now trades at a P/E of 9.1X the analysts’ consensus estimate for fiscal year 2014 (September) EPS of $43.62. Matched against 21% long-term growth expectations gives AAPL a deeply discounted PEG ratio of 0.4X. Still, it happens and it affects capital flows and stock prices, and so it may have contributed in making a cheap stock even cheaper in June.

For Apple (AAPL), I think many of you will agree that it has been a lack of news about any new disruptive product that has more meaningfully hurt the shares over the last year. I authored an article about that theory entitled, For Apple, No News is Bad News way back when. If investors were enamored with the company, it would not be in the position to be considered for removal for window dressing purposes in the first place. However, it was in that position in June, and may have been removed by a critical number of professionals as a result.

Now, heading into Q3 and July all those investors who believe in the name for the second half for whatever reason, have impetus to buy. Even if they were not window dressers, they know others were and will drive capital flow no matter what they do or do not do. So the prospect of other investors pushing the stock up from this most recent bottom here could be an important fear factor in getting capital back into the stock now. It’s a trader’s hypothesis; there’s no doubt about that, but it is still a viable a near-term reason to consider buying Apple here.

You may also enjoy:

Senate Slams Apple on Tax Avoidance
Is Apple Un-American?

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Sunday, May 26, 2013

Is Apple Un-American?

American flagLast Monday evening, Senators Carl Levin and John McCain slammed Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and seemed to imply the company was un-American in alleged tax avoidance. The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations published a statement Monday night along with a 40-page memorandum with its findings and recommendations. A hearing followed on Tuesday, with Apple CEO Tim Cook and other executives facing a barrage of questions that attempted to find fault with Apple. The Senate is alleging that Apple has actively sought to avoid paying taxes. That very well may be true, but it is only excessive taxes that Apple is avoiding, and that does not make Apple un-American. After all, doesn’t every American seek to pay as few dollars in taxes as is legally possible? After my own study of the situation, I’ve concluded that Apple has done absolutely nothing wrong. Furthermore, I assess that Apple has no unfair advantage over smaller competitors in the United States because of the construct of its holding companies, as Senator McCain suggested it might. Finally, Apple CEO Tim Cook scored highly in the defense of his company, and so Apple should remain a favorite of patriotic Americans.

Markos N. KaminisOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Apple Un-American?


The taxes in question are on monies earned overseas, which have already been taxed in the nations within which they have been earned. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is simply choosing to keep capital in one overseas location, Ireland, instead of within many individual nations. And it is not sending excess cash home, due to the unreasonable 35% tax rate it would be forced to pay for simply repatriating the capital. So Apple (AAPL) is basically saving money for its shareholders with smart tax planning. It’s a two-pronged strategy. Apple is avoiding paying excess taxes to Ireland, first and foremost. Secondarily, it is not costing its shareholders unnecessarily by sending excess cash back to the U.S. for extra taxation. However, Apple does pay taxes on the income it earns on the investment of its money in Ireland.

What bothers regulators most is that it appears to them that Apple has gamed the tax laws of the United States and Ireland in order to exempt itself from paying taxes to either nation. In effect, it has placed three subsidiaries in a sort of state of tax limbo, with no nation having legal right to any taxes on hundreds of billions of what could have unnecessarily become taxable income if Apple sent the money home.

The details of the game work like this. Because Apple’s subsidiaries, Apple Operations International (AOI) and Apple Sales International (ASI), are incorporated in Ireland, they are free of the legal reach of the U.S. tax authority. And because these subsidiaries are managed and controlled (an Irish tax concept) by the parent company, which is located outside of Ireland, they are exempt of legal tax obligation to Ireland as well. A third subsidiary with no legal tax residency status, Apple Operations Europe (AOE), has reportedly helped the company to save some more money. According to the Senators, from 2009 to 2012, the company’s tax haven constructs have allowed it to save approximately $44 billion in taxes. Senator Levin seemed to imply that the holding companies are merely for show, set up as tax havens, by asking Apple’s somewhat shaken Tax Operations Head, Phillip Bullock, where the operations were truly “managed and controlled” from. Bullock and Cook fended him off well though, because they made both legal and logical sense. The companies are operated out of Ireland, but of course, the final say and direction comes from California.

Now, no matter how badly the United States could use these funds today, they are not really due to our nation. After all, these are monies earned on overseas sales, and so fall under the jurisdiction of other nations, and taxes are paid to those nations. Senator Levin of Michigan said Apple sought the “Holy Grail of tax avoidance,” by levering tax loopholes to avoid paying any taxes anywhere. Senator McCain said, “The proper place for the bulk of Apple’s creative energy ought to go into its innovative products and services, not in its tax department.” He also noted that even though Apple brags about being one of America’s most important corporate tax payers, it is also one of its greatest tax avoiders. With all due respect to Senator Levin, whom I’m glad is serving our nation and in the role he is serving, because of his shrewd legal sense, I have determined that these allegations are exaggerations of reality. Also, in my view, Senator McCain was not fully committed to fighting this battle yet, and open to discussion.

According to the Senate’s inquiries, Apple along with many other large corporations like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and others have avoided paying taxes. Yes, I agree that Apple has avoided paying them to Ireland, thanks to Irish tax law, and that Apple has returned value to its shareholders instead. Many if not most of those equity stakeholders are found on American soil and have benefited from those saved dollars or euros. Unfortunately, in the end, what the government may actually accomplish is to embolden and empower the EU to flex its muscle against these important American companies. Recently, at one of its meetings, G7 members agreed to target tax evasion, and look what the Irish Times published last week. Are we now handing them Apple on a stick?

Because of the importance of these companies, they have leveraged their influence to gain favorable tax deals in exchange for placing stakes into the ground of nations like Ireland, who are willing and welcome to them. In return, the company employs people in those nations and makes those nations more marketable to other companies. It also encourages domestic businessmen to stay home when incorporating. So, it is not just a matter of taking; Apple and others also return something of value to nations like Ireland. Also, I gleaned from the inquiry that Apple does pay something on the order of 2% to Ireland by contract negotiated between the nation and the company. It seems that Apple has managed to leverage some of its own strength to bless Ireland with its presence. Plus, it employs roughly 4,000 Irishmen.

In this case, I think the government is wrong in its implication of wrongdoing. Furthermore, John McCain’s suggestion that Apple has a special and unfair ability in its tax construct that smaller businesses cannot match is wrong. There is nothing to stop American companies doing business overseas from setting up similar arrangements, but it is true that they may not get the same deal with Ireland. The world is not a fair place though, and some economies of scale are hard earned and gained through cunning and skill. That is capitalism and a reality of the competitive environment, not illegal activity.

If Congress wants to squeeze some more juice out of our most fruitful oranges to pay for our debts, then it should find other means to do so. Tim Cook expressed a willingness to bear some increased cost if our government would reform corporate tax law. The cost of repatriating capital back to the United States is excessive, and corporate tax rates are the highest in the world. Cook said that Apple would repatriate at a fair tax rate, but the current level of corporate rates and the rules regarding repatriation put American companies at disadvantage globally.

I conclude that not only is Apple not un-American, but in fact Apple exemplifies what is American in that it pays its due taxes and operates smartly under our capitalist scheme. It does what is most value creating and value preserving for its shareholders and so maximizes its value. Finally, I want to also note something about Tim Cook. In my previous article I said that this would be a defining moment for Tim Cook, one that he would be remembered for. I said he could be seen as a winner or a loser depending on how events unfolded. Well, he came out of this inquiry not only as a winner, but he preserved the Apple brand in the process and defended its image in the eyes of patriots. Apple’s competitors should garner nothing from this day, as long as those telling the story understood what unfolded. At least this author did, and so I hope you are reading this clear reflection of reality.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Sunday, May 12, 2013

Microsoft Missed its Moment to Defend Against Apple & Google

Microsoft SurfaceMicrosoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) might have seen the writing on the wall sooner regarding the migration of web browsers to mobile, but I believe it missed its moment to defend its market share. Microsoft’s development of its tablet, Surface and Surface Pro, may be more indicative of its failure to act quickly enough to counter Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) market share stealing mobile operating system than reflective of progressive innovation. Where it stands now, it has also fallen far behind Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android system in mobile. As a result, I think Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) will continue to shed market share over time and could become relegated to a shrinking PC market and enterprise segment, unless it can reinvent the reinvented. So, despite the stock’s post earnings pop, I would use recent strength to sell MSFT shares and put the money to more active use. However, let’s put things into proper perspective. This is still a company that just earned over $20 billion in revenues last quarter, and which has various other businesses besides its Windows business. In other words, it has the resources and the current market presence to affect its fate, despite being late to mobile as I suggest.

Microsoft bloggerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Microsoft


Apple (AAPL) was able to disrupt two industries at one time when it developed its iPhone, and later, the iPad. Developing innovative electronics that attracted demand from competing mobile phone makers was the obvious win, but what it accomplished and perhaps stole out of the arms of Palm (Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) acquired) and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) turned out to be much bigger than just that. While students, writers and technical & professional Americans use computers for all sorts of calculations, documentation and other work, a great many more people use them just to surf the web and now to meddle in social media as well. As a result, mobile computing devices have been eating into the sales of personal computers and laptops.

Microsoft was late to the game in developing a competing operating system for mobile devices, and many of its partners in PCs and laptops, the Dell’s (Nasdaq: DELL) of the world, missed the boat as well. But while investors have prepared the hanging tree for the lynching of Dell, they are not yet ready to count the PC perennials including Microsoft, Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and others out just yet. Certainly, I can agree that there remains serious question about whether the tablet can unseat the laptop, especially as innovative laptop makers adapt to meet the competition. In my view, this is the best thing working in favor of Microsoft in its defense against the tablet, and not the possibility of other tablets incorporating Microsoft’s system for mobile. Microsoft’s “tablet PC” or “PC in tablet form”, the Surface is really just one of those new innovative laptops, but for Microsoft to keep share, it needs other laptop makers to pick up after its lead. Obviously, it would also help if mobile adopted Microsoft’s system, which is not entirely out of the question, though certainly stalled by Microsoft’s late start. I’m concerned it may just be too late.

MSFT Chart


Based on my long-term premise, which I believe is reflected in the performance of the stock leading into its more recent pop, I think the stock should still be sold here. It’s my view that the steep climb would better represent Microsoft’s successful challenge to Apple and Google in mobile operating systems (not Surface sales alone), and I do not think we are there yet. According to research firm IDC, Microsoft’s first quarter sales of tablets represented just 1.8% of segment sales. Meanwhile, Samsung and Google posed the most significant challenge to Apple this year.

Company
Tablet Sales (Units)
Q1 2013 Share
Q1 2012 Share
Apple (AAPL)
19.5 Mln.
39.6%
58.1%
Samsung (OTC: SSNLF.PK)
8.8 Mln.
17.9%
11.3%
AsusTek (OTC: ASUUY.PK)
2.7 Mln.
5.5%
3.1%
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN)
1.8 Mln.
3.7%
3.6%
Microsoft (MSFT)
0.9 Mln.
1.8%
NA
Other
15.5 Mln.
31.5%
24.1%


According to YCharts, Microsoft’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio and price-to-sales ratio are higher than they have been in two years time, and the company still has an important question to answer. Thus, I believe post earnings fervor took hold of the stock and took it too high too quickly in terms of valuation. Given my well-documented renewed concerns about the global economy, even if the company’s market share were not being threatened, I would not favor a historically high valuation now. Therefore, I would sell MSFT here and put capital to other use.

More WSG work on: Technology, Stocks and our Editor's Picks.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Apple (AAPL) Supported by Rumors & Tricks

There’s nothing tangible besides Apple’s own share repurchase efforts to stop Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) shares from dropping to below their 52-week low of $419 in the very near-term. The shares only recovered over the last month because of rumors and anticipation. However, without any real news to give credence to prospective buyers, Apple shares could give way to a new low, perhaps as deep as $400.

Apple AnalystOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Apple


Apple one month chart AAPL


Before the latest share rally, your author here suggested that For Apple, No News is Bad News. Not long after that note was published, the Apple rumor mill started churning faster. First there was renewed chatter of a potential special unscheduled product announcement, with hope for news of new electronic gear like an Apple watch or the long anticipated Apple television set. The excitement was heightened because of Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) introduction of its Google Glass, and Samsung (OTC: SSNLF.PK) and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) introductions of their newest phones. Still, an eerie silence surrounded Apple and none of those rumors materialized.

Then, with pressure from activist investors ongoing, and as the company approached the one-year anniversary of its dividend and repurchase program announcement, popular media began speculating about a possible event for this year. The coverage was so heavy it almost seemed factual, but there was no indication from Apple that such an event was in the cards.

On the day that Samsung (OTC: SSNLF) introduced its Galaxy S IV with high hoopla and celebration, famed investor Bill Miller appeared on CNBC television before the market open and shared that he favored Apple again and had just concluded acquiring a stake. In my piece, Why Apple Rose on Samsung’s Big Day, I suggested the curious gain for Apple that day was likely attributable to the Miller interview and, I speculated, on Apple’s own share repurchases to support its stock.

But months have passed and still no news from Apple. Investors are starting to question whether the company actually has anything to say or any new product to wow America with. The next opportunity for it to wow us may not come until the company’s next earnings release, scheduled for April 23 at 5 PM ET. Even so, after the long boys have cried rally wolf so many times, who is to say the shares will rally again into the risk of another letdown. Tuesday just after the noon hour a guest on CNBC’s Halftime Report expressed his view that Apple would introduce a television in the third quarter. The stock did not budge higher from its already established gain on the day. The boys who cry for Apple to go higher are starting to be ignored already.

It’s clear by now that standing pat is not going to turn AAPL around. The company’s technology is being effectively chased down now by Samsung and Google, and perhaps less effectively by Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and more. The challengers to Apple are still lining up, with Facebook (NYSE: FB) now set to launch its own mobile platform as well. No, standing atop the hill will inevitably result in Apple being knocked off the hill, because those who would do it are all around Apple now.

A capital use announcement like an increased dividend or a special dividend has the potential of backfiring on Apple, because of the message it might send. Apple Must Send the Right Message, that it is still a growth company and the innovator of our age, and not that it is a maturing company preparing to become a cash cow dividend payer. A higher dividend is a good thing, but absent of any news about where growth will come from, will probably lead the shares lower in my opinion. An increased share repurchase program could produce a different outcome, because investors might read into it about Apple’s plans for the second half of 2013.

Apple’s valuation is a support for the stock, but it does not reflect an expectation for the company to continue to grow at the pace it has managed in the past. The stock’s forward P/E of 9.9X and PEG ratio of 0.5X is expressing doubt in Apple’s growth outlook.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) removed Apple from its conviction buy list Tuesday and others are expressing concern about its non-contention in the lower priced (lower margin) phone market. Now we have to assume that the Goldman analyst has good insight, so this is a peculiar moment for him to be hedging. Still, pressure from “above” always seems to mount on analysts at precisely the wrong moment, and I speak from experience. We’re within the quiet period for the company and so the analyst is not basing anything on a discussion with management, we assume. Therefore, I do not see this as an especially important warning sign. I think he’s just lost confidence in Apple’s team as much as I have.

Still, I expect Apple to eventually produce that big product announcement, but I’m just not convinced it will be before $400. I’m losing confidence in the company’s shareholder focus, because I believe it should be more loudly hinting at its new product efforts or aggressively supporting the stock with its allotted repurchase plan. Some of this is probably occurring and is probably the very reason why the stock was up Tuesday against the Goldman cut (similarly to its rise on the day of the Samsung product release). Given the share price drop recently, I’m wondering if Apple is more focused on looking good six months from now when it tells the story about how it repurchased shares at such bargain prices, versus the focus it should have about the positions of its shareholders in the here and now. The way to support that focus is to say something about a new product, even if that product is not yet fully ready. That’s my view, and I welcome you to follow my column and tag along for more of the same. Also, business owners who see value in my insight may contact me about consulting services, as I can study, analyze and add value to businesses of all sorts and sizes. Those interested in potentially hiring me to manage a mutual fund or hedge fund portfolio may make contact as well, as nothing is beyond my consideration.

More interesting work on Apple and Google: Will Google Fall if Apple Rises?

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Will Google Fall if Apple Rises?

A comment posted to a recent report of mine suggested that Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) shares might be negatively correlated. In other words, the reader suggested that Google has benefited from Apple’s weakness since December. I thought it to be an interesting theory worthy of further review, and so we explore that here. Because I believe AAPL will eventually rise again, we especially want to know if AAPL rises, will GOOG fall?

technology analystOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Google vs. Apple


GOOG AAPL Chart Comparison

The six-month chart comparison of the two behemoths of technology does seem to indicate negative correlation of returns. The deviation of the two stocks seems to pick up steam in mid-December.

GOOG AAPL SPY Chart Comparison

The one-year chart here adds some color as well, because it shows the two stocks were probably positively correlated, or at least each correlated to the broader market before December. Apple diverged from the market as well in December, which was painfully obvious to Apple shareholders. Apple should have followed the market higher, since it carries a beta coefficient of 0.74. Google’s beta is 1.18, and so it should exaggerate market moves. Apple has clearly marched to the beat of its own drummer over the last several years, but historically, that march was to its benefit against a weaker market performance.

It’s certainly possible that Apple’s decline is completely unrelated to Google’s rise. Because around the time it began lower, market chatter was expressing concern about a possible increase to the capital gains tax rate. Long-time holders of Apple may have taken gains before the turn of the year in order to avoid paying higher taxes in the future. There is a critical flaw in that argument though since Google’s long-term performance is also pretty good. So there might have been selling in GOOG around that time for the same reason.

Google Apple long term chart comparison


The only reason one might think the two could be correlated is due to capital flows, and the similarities of the companies in terms of sector participation, market capitalization and trading volume. Apple dominates most companies in each of those last two categories, and it dominates Google as well. However, Google shares have heavy enough volume to support the demand of big institutional investors who may have needed something interesting in technology to replace Apple holdings over recent months.

Even if that were the case, as time passes and given new valuation considerations, any negative correlation would dissolve. In my opinion, the two companies each offer interesting long-term opportunity for investors in stocks because of the importance of their goods and services in the marketplace and their ongoing prospects. Furthermore, I believe each should be included in the space allotted to technology within diversified portfolios. Apple would seem to offer the best value with its PEG ratio of 0.5X, but the stock’s valuation is due to recent questions about its ability to continue to innovate and grow. Google may seem expensive as it trades at a PEG of 1.2X, but it is introducing new electronics now, including the Google Glass, and so could pick up its growth pace. In conclusion and in answering my question, no, I do not think Google will fall if Apple rises.

This article will also interest investors in Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Samsung (OTC: SSNLF), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Facebook (NYSE: FB) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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