Oil Prices will Fly to New High

Oil prices are rising along with other risky assets as a key risk appears to be coming off the table. With the Fed cleared away (for now) and with Brexit seemingly about to be resolved favorably, oil prices have been freed to fly. Crude also continues to benefit from seasonal favor, though higher prices could eventually draw new supply action from our competitors to the east. As discussed in my last article on that issue, oil should retrace highs near-term nonetheless. See the whole story at Oil Prices are Free to Fly.

Energy Complex	AM Indication
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) for comparison	+0.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+0.8%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+1.6%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	+0.4%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)	+1.6%
VanEck Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)	+0.3%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	+0.1%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	+0.1%
BP p.l.c. (NYSE: BP)	+0.9%
Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT)	+0.0%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	+0.5%
Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-A)	+0.6%
Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO)	+2.1%
Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD)	+0.3%
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK)	+1.7%
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)	+0.4%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests energy investors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).

As Rig Counts Rise, So May Saudi Arabia

The latest weekly rig count data produced by Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI) showed the third straight increase in active North American drilling rigs. The relatively higher price of oil has producers in both the U.S. and Canada expanding operations in June. But that is precisely what Saudi Arabia has been suffering to stop, and so increased investment activity could lead Saudi Arabia to boost production soon. The ripples of such an action might be big, but only if other energy sector dynamics matter less. See this full report at The Snake Also Rises - Saudi Arabia's Response to Rising Rig Counts.

Energy Relative Shares	Week Ended 06-17-16
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.7%*
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-1.8%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-2.5%
United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)	+2.4%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-0.0%*
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)	-0.3%*
Market Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)	-0.6%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	+0.8%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	-0.4%
B.P. (NYSE: BP)	+1.6%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	-0.8%
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)	-1.9%
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)	-0.7%
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)	-1.3%
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)	-0.6%
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK)	+2.0%
Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD)	-3.2%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests energy investors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).

June Oil Outlook – Negative Bias Developing

As we progress into June, the outlook for oil may be taking on a negative bias. Oil has been stuck in a tight range recently while flirting with the $50 mark over the last several weeks. Sector dynamics including supply disruption and the onset of the summer driving season in North America have helped. On the other hand, a recently strengthening dollar and OPEC disengagement have hampered any further upside gains. Things are changing in June, though, and while some things are changing for the better, it seems many fresh developments could shift the bias of the price of oil to negative. See the whole story at June Oil Price Outlook - A Negative Bias Developing.

Energy Relative Shares	Since February 11 Close
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+13.3%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+42%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+42%
United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)	+0.3%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	+21%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)	+45%
Market Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)	+24%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	+10%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	+21%
B.P. (NYSE: BP)	+12%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	+35%
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)	+7.4%
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)	+13%
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)	+8.3%
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)	+49%
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK)	157%
Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD)	+39%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests energy investors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).

OPEC & Oil - Loose Lips Sink Ships

OPEC oil ministers are arriving in Vienna for OPEC's June 2nd meeting, and they are being sought out for comment by the media. On Tuesday, one minister freely responded to a question about the oil market that led investors to construe that OPEC is unlikely to take any action this week on production. OPEC is an important factor for oil, but most analysts already expect inaction this week. If oil slides on superficial drivers, it should be purchased on weakness given that a substantial catalyst in another supportive inventory data point is likely arriving on Thursday. I am looking for oil prices to recover in short time, and have taken a new long position in United States Oil (NYSEARCA:USO). See the whole story at Loose OPEC Lips Sink Oil Ships.

Energy Relative Shares	05-31-16
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.2%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-0.9%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-1.4%
United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)	+5.5%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-0.4%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)	+0.7%
Market Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)	-0.1%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	-1.1%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	-1.0%
B.P. (NYSE: BP)	-3.0%
TOTAL S.A. (NYSE: TOT)	-1.0%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	-1.2%
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)	-0.3%
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)	-0.9%
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)	-1.1%
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)	-0.9%
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK)	+3.1%
Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD)	-0.8%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long USO. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests energy investors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).

Oil Prices in a Tug-of-War

Oil prices are locked in a tug-of-war, with two powerful opposing forces pulling on it. This should bring about swings in the price of oil as one factor overpowers the other and vice versa. However, it should also allow for an ironic stability for as long as neither convincingly overpowers the other. On one side, we have an appreciating dollar pulling oil downward, and on the other we have a change in energy sector dynamics pulling oil higher. Traders might use the sort of controlled volatility to their advantage, while long-term investors may be frustrated near-term. See the whole story at The Tug-of-War for Oil Prices.

Energy Relative Shares	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+3.7%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+8.9%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+4.7%
United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)	-25%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	+12.1%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)	+16.7%
Market Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)	+6.4%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	+17.5%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	+16.1%
B.P. (NYSE: BP)	+7.4%
TOTAL S.A. (NYSE: TOT)	+10.6%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	-3.8%
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)	+0.1%
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)	+13.8%
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)	+12.2%
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)	+26%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests energy investors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).

Oil Prices – Was that Bad News Actually Good?

When the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report was published last week, I wondered if good news was mistaken for bad. Just a week after a large crude oil draw had been posted, the latest data showed a build in crude oil storage even despite the ongoing issues in Alberta. Oil prices immediately declined after the release, but did investors miss an important point? See the whole story at Oil Prices - Was Good News Mistaken for Bad?

Energy Relative Shares	05-23-16 Close
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-0.8%
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-0.5%
United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)	-0.2%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-0.2%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (NYSE: XOP)	-0.2%
Market Vectors Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)	-0.4%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	-0.2%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	-0.4%
B.P. (NYSE: BP)	-1.5%
TOTAL S.A. (NYSE: TOT)	-1.1%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	+0.0%
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)	-0.1%
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)	-0.1%
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)	+0.1%
Weatherford Int’l (NYSE: WFT)	+2.0%
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)	+1.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article interests energy investors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).