Don’t Blame the Player, Blame the Game

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met last week and issued new monetary policy Wednesday afternoon. Judging by the market’s initial reaction and criticism, I get the feeling many of the expert pundits and reporters haven’t actually read the Fed’s comments carefully or fully understood the Fed’s message. It’s quite unfortunate, but it made for opportunity, and continues to do so. In this report, I review what the Fed really conveyed to us, versus what you’ve been led to believe by pundits, reporters and the market’s initial reaction. And I lay out my expectations for the Fed moving forward. See this full report at Don't Hate the Player, Hate the Game.

I called the market pivot before it happened on Friday:

I know it looks and feels bad, but I expect the market to turn and whip higher shortly. #stocks #stockmarket $SPY $VXX $AAPL $NFLX $AMZN $C

— Markos Kaminis (@WallStreetGreek) June 16, 2016

Security Sector	06-17-16 AM Trade
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-1.1%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.1%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.1%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+0.4%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	-0.7%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	+1.0%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	-0.8%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	+0.2%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.7%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	+0.2%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	+0.4%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	+0.3%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-1.1%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+0.9%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+2.8%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.5%
Widely Held Stock Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)	-1.9%
General Electric (NYSE: GE)	+0.1%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in Savings & Loan stocks including Alaska Pacific Bankshares (OTC: AKPB.OB), Allied First Bancorp (OTC: AFBA.OB), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), AMB Financial (OTC: AMFC.OB), Ameriana Bancorp (NasdaqCM: ASBI), Anchor Bancorp Wisconsin (Nasdaq: ABCW), Bancorp of New Jersey (AMEX: BKJ), Bank Mutual (Nasdaq: BKMU), BankAtlantic (NYSE: BBX), BankFinancial (Nasdaq: BFIN), Banner (Nasdaq: BANR), BCSB Bancorp (Nasdaq: BCSB), Beacon Federal (Nasdaq: BFED), Berkshire Hills (Nasdaq: BHLB), Blackhawk Bancorp (OTC: BHWB.OB), Blue River Bancshares (OTC: BRBI.OB), Bofi (Nasdaq: BOFI), Broadway Financial (Nasdaq: BYFC), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Brooklyn Federal (Nasdaq: BFSB), Camco Financial (Nasdaq: CAFI), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Carver (Nasdaq: CARV), Cecil Bancorp (OTC: CECB.OB), Center Financial (Nasdaq: CLFC), Central Federal (Nasdaq: CFBK), Chicopee (Nasdaq: CBNK), Citizens South (Nasdaq: CSBC), CKF Bancorp (OTC: CKFB.OB), Clarkston Financial (OTC: CKFC.OB), Clifton Savings (Nasdaq: CSBK), Close Brothers (OTC: CBGPY.PK), Columbia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Consumers (OTC: CBKM.OB), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Enterprise (Nasdaq: EBTC), ESB Financial (Nasdaq: ESBF), ESSA Bancorp (Nasdaq: ESSA), Eureka Financial (OTC: EKFC.OB), FedFirst Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFCO), FFD Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFDF), FFW (OTC: FFWC.OB), First Bancorp of Indiana (OTC: FBPI.OB), First Bancshares (Nasdaq: FBSI), First Capital (Nasdaq: FCAP), First Clover Leaf (Nasdaq: FCLF), First Defiance (Nasdaq: FDEF), First Federal Bancshares of Arkansas (Nasdaq: FFBH), First Financial Holdings (Nasdaq: FFCH), First Independence (OTC: FFSL.OB), First Investors Fin’l Services (OTC: FIFS.PK), First Niagara (Nasdaq: FNFG), First Robinson (OTC: FRFC.OB), First Security Group (Nasdaq: FSGID), First South (Nasdaq: FSBK), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Flatbush Federal (OTC: FLTB.OB), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Greene County (Nasdaq: GCBC), HF Financial (Nasdaq: HFFC), HMN Fin’l (Nasdaq: HMNF), Home Bancorp (Nasdaq: HBCP), Home Federal (Nasdaq: HOME), HopFed (Nasdaq: HFBC), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), Indiana Community (Nasdaq: INCB), Investors Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Jacksonville Bancorp (Nasdaq: JXSB), Jefferson Bancshares (Nasdaq: JFBI), Kaiser Federal (Nasdaq: KFFG), Kearny Fin’l (Nasdaq: KRNY), Kentucky First Federal (Nasdaq: KFFB), Lake Shore Bancorp (Nasdaq: LSBK), Louisiana Bancorp (Nasdaq: LABC), LSB Fin’l (Nasdaq: LSBI), Malvern Federal (Nasdaq: MLVF), Meridian Interstate (Nasdaq: EBSB), Meta Fin’l (Nasdaq: CASH), NASB Fin’l (Nasdaq: NASB), Naugatuck Valley (Nasdaq: NVSL), New England Bancshares (Nasdaq: NEBS), New Hampshire Thrift (Nasdaq: NHTB), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), North Central Bancshares (Nasdaq: FFFD), Northeast Community (Nasdaq: NECB), Northwest Bancshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), OceanFirst (Nasdaq: OCFC), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Oneida (Nasdaq: ONFC), Park Bancorp (Nasdaq: PFED), Parkvale Fin’l (Nasdaq: PVSA), Pathfinder Bancorp (Nasdaq: PBHC), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), Provident Community (Nasdaq: PCBS), Provident Fin’l (Nasdaq: PROV), Provident Fin’l Services (NYSE: PFS), Provident New York (Nasdaq: PBNY), Prudential Bancorp of PA (Nasdaq: PBIP), PSB Holding (Nasdaq: PSBH), Pulaski Fin’l (Nasdaq: PULB), PVF Capital (Nasdaq: PVFC), QC Holding (Nasdaq: QCCO), River Valley Bancorp (Nasdaq: RIVR), Riverview Bancorp (Nasdaq: RVSB), Roma Fin’l (Nasdaq: ROMA), Salisbury Bancorp (AMEX: SAL), SI Financial (Nasdaq: SIFI), Southern Missouri (Nasdaq: SMBC), Sterling Fin’l (Nasdaq: STSA), Teche Holding (AMEX: TSH), TF Fin’l (Nasdaq: THRD), Timberland Bancorp (Nasdaq: TSBK), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBA), United Community Fin’l (Nasdaq: UCFC), United Fin’l Bancorp (Nasdaq: UBNK), Valley Fin’l (Nasdaq: VYFC), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Waterstone Fin’l (Nasdaq: WSBF), Wayne Savings (Nasdaq: WAYN), WSB Holdings (Nasdaq: WSB) and WVS Financial (Nasdaq: WVFC).

Clues Ahead of the Fed Announcement

When the Chairlady of the Federal Reserve last spoke about a week ago, the focus was on her account and analysis of the surprisingly weak labor market data that had just been reported for May. Chair Yellen addressed the issue diplomatically, and seemed to believe like me that the May result will prove to be an aberration, especially given recent jobless claims indications. Chair Yellen also addressed broader economic and international signals investors could look to in order to understand how the Fed perceives matters, and she hedged quite a bit. In conclusion, while June remains a live meeting, given the fear injected into financial markets since then by George Soros’ impactful warning, by intensified Brexit risk, by the terrorist attack in Orlando, and by today’s soft productivity data, not to mention the overwhelming expectations of the market for another pause in rate actions, a hike in June would seem highly unlikely. However, the Fed’s economic projections and its press conference are very likely to direct market attention to July and still very active Fed monetary policy normalization (tightening) this year. For my advice on how to handle today's Fed meeting, progress to The Fed Chairlady's Subtle Clues & How to Play This.

Security Sector	06-15-16 Early Indication
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.2%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+0.3%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+0.1%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+0.3%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	+0.1%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-0.5%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	+0.3%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	-0.1%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.0%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	-0.2%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-0.0%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	+0.0%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-1.0%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.2%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-1.5%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.0%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

A Tough Call Developing for the Fed

As the Fed studies the data for May, so far it has received mixed cues. Some of it appears to be anomalous and not perfectly understood, but some of it at least seems substantial whether it proves to be or not. It all serves to create uncertainty in the market, though the loudest voices are sounding off against the likelihood of Fed rate action anytime soon. It makes for a sketchy situation for the upcoming FOMC meetings, and it might serve to stir up more volatility for markets if Fed wisdom proves different than common perception of it. Unfortunately, there is not much time or more data for a clearer perspective to develop before the June meeting, but July could still be in play. See the whole story at Sketchy Situation Developing for the Fed.

Security Sector	06-06-16 Early Indication
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.0%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.2%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.2%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+0.3%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	+0.0%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	+0.0%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	+0.2%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	+0.2%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	-0.0%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	+0.0%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	+0.0%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	+0.1%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	+0.0%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-0.3%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

The Fed has Lost All Credibility

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approached an anxious market Wednesday that was afraid it might receive its due medicine, but the Fed gave us a lollipop instead. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as demanded by the frantic market, and lowered its forecasts for the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points this year. In December, just three months ago, that same Fed seemed steadfast in its endeavor to normalize monetary policy. The Fed is losing all credibility because of its unpredictability and its adventures in forecasting. Investors would likely do best in forecasting Fed actions by surveying the stock market and the Fed Funds Futures, not by listening to the Fed.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

No matter what the Fed Chair said about the possibility of more rate actions dependent on data, it seems highly unlikely to ever surprise investors in that manner. It seems the best indicator of Fed action may in fact be the stock market. If the market does well, expect a rate hike, and if it does poorly, look for the bank to back off and sound soft.

Furthermore, the only true mandate of the Fed, if I may opine brutally honestly, may be its members’ job security and not the labor market nor inflation. Because if it is not so, then the Fed would not have produced such a dovish message Wednesday. And this endeavor in futility the Fed calls its dot-plot forecasts needs to be abandoned, because they are causing more confusion and volatility with it than they are producing transparency. The only thing they are allowing us to see more clearly is their own failings in forecasting. Seriously, how can your forecast change so dramatically in a period of three months unless it is completely unreliable?

Somehow, I remember back in December determining never to attempt to predict what the Fed will say or do again. I think I’ve done that many a Fed day. And yet, somehow, here I am, having expected the Fed to hold to its course and instead finding it completely undermining everything it forced me to swallow last time around. You know what they say about “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Well, shame on me then.

This Fed seems destined to miss the uptick in inflation until it is too late, and having to raise rates in 50 basis point increments or more someday soon, and truly destabilizing equity markets and the economy in the process.

In December, when it seemed the Fed should not raise interest rates, it did so. Today, we all expected the Fed to pause, but we also expected the bank to sternly hold to its trajectory. But this central bank feels more like a paranoid schizophrenic than a stable banker and it has lost all credibility.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), United States Oil (NYSE: USO), Alaska Pacific Bankshares (OTC: AKPB.OB), Allied First Bancorp (OTC: AFBA.OB), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), AMB Financial (OTC: AMFC.OB), Ameriana Bancorp (NasdaqCM: ASBI), Anchor Bancorp Wisconsin (Nasdaq: ABCW), Bancorp of New Jersey (AMEX: BKJ), Bank Mutual (Nasdaq: BKMU), BankAtlantic (NYSE: BBX), BankFinancial (Nasdaq: BFIN), Banner (Nasdaq: BANR), BCSB Bancorp (Nasdaq: BCSB), Beacon Federal (Nasdaq: BFED), Berkshire Hills (Nasdaq: BHLB), Blackhawk Bancorp (OTC: BHWB.OB), Blue River Bancshares (OTC: BRBI.OB), Bofi (Nasdaq: BOFI), Broadway Financial (Nasdaq: BYFC), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Brooklyn Federal (Nasdaq: BFSB), Camco Financial (Nasdaq: CAFI), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Carver (Nasdaq: CARV), Cecil Bancorp (OTC: CECB.OB), Center Financial (Nasdaq: CLFC), Central Federal (Nasdaq: CFBK), Chicopee (Nasdaq: CBNK), Citizens South (Nasdaq: CSBC), CKF Bancorp (OTC: CKFB.OB), Clarkston Financial (OTC: CKFC.OB), Clifton Savings (Nasdaq: CSBK), Close Brothers (OTC: CBGPY.PK), Columbia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Consumers (OTC: CBKM.OB), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Enterprise (Nasdaq: EBTC), ESB Financial (Nasdaq: ESBF), ESSA Bancorp (Nasdaq: ESSA), Eureka Financial (OTC: EKFC.OB), FedFirst Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFCO), FFD Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFDF), FFW (OTC: FFWC.OB), First Bancorp of Indiana (OTC: FBPI.OB), First Bancshares (Nasdaq: FBSI), First Capital (Nasdaq: FCAP), First Clover Leaf (Nasdaq: FCLF), First Defiance (Nasdaq: FDEF), First Federal Bancshares of Arkansas (Nasdaq: FFBH), First Financial Holdings (Nasdaq: FFCH), First Independence (OTC: FFSL.OB), First Investors Fin’l Services (OTC: FIFS.PK), First Niagara (Nasdaq: FNFG), First Robinson (OTC: FRFC.OB), First Security Group (Nasdaq: FSGID), First South (Nasdaq: FSBK), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Flatbush Federal (OTC: FLTB.OB), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Greene County (Nasdaq: GCBC), HF Financial (Nasdaq: HFFC), HMN Fin’l (Nasdaq: HMNF), Home Bancorp (Nasdaq: HBCP), Home Federal (Nasdaq: HOME), HopFed (Nasdaq: HFBC), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), Indiana Community (Nasdaq: INCB), Investors Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Jacksonville Bancorp (Nasdaq: JXSB), Jefferson Bancshares (Nasdaq: JFBI), Kaiser Federal (Nasdaq: KFFG), Kearny Fin’l (Nasdaq: KRNY), Kentucky First Federal (Nasdaq: KFFB), Lake Shore Bancorp (Nasdaq: LSBK), Louisiana Bancorp (Nasdaq: LABC), LSB Fin’l (Nasdaq: LSBI), Malvern Federal (Nasdaq: MLVF), Meridian Interstate (Nasdaq: EBSB), Meta Fin’l (Nasdaq: CASH), NASB Fin’l (Nasdaq: NASB), Naugatuck Valley (Nasdaq: NVSL), New England Bancshares (Nasdaq: NEBS), New Hampshire Thrift (Nasdaq: NHTB), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), North Central Bancshares (Nasdaq: FFFD), Northeast Community (Nasdaq: NECB), Northwest Bancshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), OceanFirst (Nasdaq: OCFC), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Oneida (Nasdaq: ONFC), Park Bancorp (Nasdaq: PFED), Parkvale Fin’l (Nasdaq: PVSA), Pathfinder Bancorp (Nasdaq: PBHC), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), Provident Community (Nasdaq: PCBS), Provident Fin’l (Nasdaq: PROV), Provident Fin’l Services (NYSE: PFS), Provident New York (Nasdaq: PBNY), Prudential Bancorp of PA (Nasdaq: PBIP), PSB Holding (Nasdaq: PSBH), Pulaski Fin’l (Nasdaq: PULB), PVF Capital (Nasdaq: PVFC), QC Holding (Nasdaq: QCCO), River Valley Bancorp (Nasdaq: RIVR), Riverview Bancorp (Nasdaq: RVSB), Roma Fin’l (Nasdaq: ROMA), Salisbury Bancorp (AMEX: SAL), SI Financial (Nasdaq: SIFI), Southern Missouri (Nasdaq: SMBC), Sterling Fin’l (Nasdaq: STSA), Teche Holding (AMEX: TSH), TF Fin’l (Nasdaq: THRD), Timberland Bancorp (Nasdaq: TSBK), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBA), United Community Fin’l (Nasdaq: UCFC), United Fin’l Bancorp (Nasdaq: UBNK), Valley Fin’l (Nasdaq: VYFC), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Waterstone Fin’l (Nasdaq: WSBF), Wayne Savings (Nasdaq: WAYN), WSB Holdings (Nasdaq: WSB) and WVS Financial (Nasdaq: WVFC).

Stock Market Warning - Fed Dot-Plot Will Surprise People

After recommending stocks at their turn in February, I am now seeing the first real challenge for equities this week. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates, however, investors have not yet honestly considered what the Fed’s dot-plot forecasts will show for rate expectations this year. I expect it will be a forecast that is not consistent with what the market expects, and stocks face a setback as a result. Energy prices could also be impacted as the dollar strengthens and due to Fed braking. However, financial sector strength on the same news should eventually help to support the broader market, as should the fact that the Fed is probably not acting on rates this month. For this reason, I’m simply warning investors here to be prepared for volatility and consider hemming and hedging some long bets heading into the data, especially in certain riskier sectors. Raising some cash now and adding portfolio protection is also appropriate in my estimation. However, gold is not favored, due to expected dollar strength on the Fed trajectory. See the full Warning on Stocks here.

Security Sector	03-15-16 Early Indication
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.6%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.3%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.8%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-0.7%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	-0.9%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	-0.3%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-1.3%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	-0.8%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	-0.5%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.3%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	-0.2%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-1.3%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-0.9%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+3.3%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-1.7%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Stocks Crushed by Black Swan of the Fed’s Own Making

SPY Chart at Fidelity.com

Earlier this week, when we examined the potential impact of the Federal Reserve Chairwoman’s testimony before Congress, we anticipated a negative result. However, that was based on the expectation for professionalism and diplomacy (read non-committal responses) about the possibility of a softening of Fed monetary tightening plans. Unfortunately, because of intensifying publicity around a nuance to this year’s stress testing for banks, congressional members have instead repeatedly asked Chair Yellen about the possibility of negative interest rate policy action by the Fed. It is my view that professionalism and diplomacy should have been pushed aside at that moment, and the Fed Chair should have clearly stated that while it was being studied due to its use in other major regions of the world, it would not be appropriate now (and possibly ever) for the U.S. and is highly unlikely. However, Fed Chair Yellen’s diplomatic responses to questions about negative rates have effectively scared the heck out of the market about exactly what might require the Fed to dramatically reverse course. Exactly what does the Fed know or see that concerns it? The Fed now has a black swan wreaking havoc to financial markets to deal with, and it is a shame that it is of its own making. See the full report on Stocks and the Black Swan of the Fed's Own Making.

Security Sector	02-11-16 1:45 PM ET
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-1.7%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-2.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.8%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-1.2%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.7%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF)	-3.0%
Technology Select Sector SPDR (Nasdaq: XLK)	-0.9%
Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)	-2.7%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV)	-2.0%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:  XLY)	-0.7%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP)	-0.9%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU)	-1.3%
Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB)	-2.5%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)	-2.7%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+7.8%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	+4.4%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-2.0%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).