Walmart Outlook for 2015

Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) is looking good as the year comes to a close, but that’s both good and bad for shareholders in 2015 in my view. Economic data is reflecting a healthy operating environment, but the stock is looking fat heading into the important turn of the year. Still, long-term holders should risk an early year dip and maintain holdings despite the stock’s P/E premium to its growth outlook, as upside surprises on lower gasoline pricing and economic strength could drive better than expected growth for the company and the stock. See our Wal-Mart Outlook 2015 Report here.

Astounding Retail Sales Justify Fed Taper

Retail sales were reported for the month of November Thursday and they were astounding. It reflects a very strong start to the holiday shopping season, and shows all around better consumer spending activity. It also offers the Fed all the more reason to begin tapering back asset purchases, but it justifies it as well, so it should make Fed action easier to swallow. Let’s take a closer look at this stellar economic report. Visit our blog for more like this.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Retail Sales

Upward Revision to October

The prior month’s sales data was revised higher, and the revisions extended across the board. This is not always good news, because it could lead to a slower growth rate for the reported month, since the base that growth is calculated upon is raised. However, that was not the case Thursday, as the prior month’s upward revision joined the current month’s positive surprise in uplifting hope.

	Revised Oct. Change	Initial October Data
Retail Sales M/M Change	+0.6%	+0.4%
Retail Sales Less Autos	+0.5%	+0.2%
Retail Sales Less Autos & Gas	+0.6%	+0.3%

As you can see, previously reported headline retail sales were increased two-tenths to +0.6% for October. When we exclude automobile and gasoline sales, growth shows up even better, improved by three-tenths of a percentage point. So this is good news about the pre-holiday period. It’s even more impressive if we recall the federal fiscal chaos that enveloped the headlines in early October as the government shut down and the debt ceiling debate threatened to derail the American economy. Those key factors did have a detrimental impact upon reported consumer sentiment trends through the month. Yet, as Thursday’s data shows, real spending came through okay.

November’s Good News

	November Change	Economists’ Consensus
Retail Sales M/M Change	+0.7%	+0.6%
Retail Sales Less Autos	+0.4%	+0.3%
Retail Sales Less Autos & Gas	+0.6%	+0.2%

Despite the upward revisions to October’s data, growth exceeded economists’ expectations across the board in November. The numbers were more than just better than expectations; they were strong in absolute terms as well. November retail sales growth of 0.7% beat the economists’ very positive outlook, but when excluding strong auto sales and gasoline, they blew away the economists’ consensus and remained robust in absolute terms at +0.6%.

I caught a so-called expert criticize the report on financial television Thursday. He expressed his view that retail sales are strong, but retailers’ individual earnings have been poor. He vaguely suggested that this was because of necessary discounting and reflected a generally poor retail environment. While I agree that the retail store capacity of the United States has typically been oversaturated over the last decade, I cannot find much fault with the latest retail sales report. And it is well-established now that American consumers are deal seekers.

I do believe that the earlier discounting of retailers may have helped pull forward a larger portion of seasonal sales than usual though. Opening on Thanksgiving like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) did and the beginning of discounting even earlier than that, along with ongoing daily deals from the likes of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and others, have certainly helped frontload seasonal sales. I think you can see that in the year-to-year comparisons. Sales were 4.7% greater in this year’s November versus last year, and they were up 4.1% for the September through November period.

Looking at the retail segments, autos were especially strong, with those sales up 1.8% in November and 10.9% against the prior year period. The strong November was already noted by Ford (NYSE: F) shares though because of the monthly motor vehicle sales data reported earlier this month, so auto stocks hardly reacted to the news Thursday.

Gasoline stations posted a 1.1% decline in sales for the month and a 3.3% drop from the prior year period. This activity is always dictated by the volatile price of the commodity. We can see that the auto and gasoline sales trends offset one another, and so the headline comparisons nearly matched the change in the adjusted figure that excludes these two important retail segments.

Online sales are of great interest to us, given their growing importance and the rising prominence of players in the market like Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN). The sales of “nonstore retailers,” which also include exclusive catalog sellers but are mostly driven by online retailers these days, increased 2.2% in November and were up 9.4% against the prior year. The faster pace of growth reflects the still increasing importance of Internet retailers and their steady market share gains. That trend is driven by the ease of online shopping and the often better pricing of goods online.

Another positive sign for consumer spending was evident in the 1.3% higher sales of food services and drinking places in November, and 5.2% year-to-year increase. The outsized gain in sales for this segment is important, as we believe it offers evidence of casual dining gains. Eating at Darden Restaurants’ (NYSE: DRI) Olive Garden is relatively inexpensive, but it’s probably still more expensive than eating in. Eating at McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) is another story, thanks to its expanding dollar menu. I think the growth in this segment more likely reflects a return of consumer spending following improving labor trends.

Real estate enthusiasts will be happy to note the 1.8% month-to-month and 5.3% year-to-year sales growth in building materials stores. Add to that the 1.2% and 9.7% sales growth at furniture and home furnishings stores and we have real reason to celebrate. Not only are home sales increasing, but people are actually furnishing and repairing them.

Chart at Yahoo Finance

The retail sales data on Thursday hardly lifted stocks, which were on the decline of late due to rising concern about Fed tapering and next week’s meeting of the U.S. central bank. Still, the slide in the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) did stall on the day, and that might have been because of the especially positive retail sales result. It is yet another data point offering evidence that the Fed might be justified in tapering back asset purchases now, and that the economy can stand on its own even so.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Take Heed: Retail Sales Alarm Tied to Debt Ceiling

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) produces its Weekly Same-Store Sales data every Tuesday. This week, the data seems to offer indication that consumers are concerned about the government shutdown and debt ceiling uproar. For the economy, this is critical as we enter the busiest buying season of the year. Furthermore, other consumer relative data over the past couple months has shown about as well as yesterday’s fad, so perhaps investors in the retail sector should take heed as well.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

The ICSC Tuesday reported that the pace of weekly same-store sales at retailers’ stores open for at least a year were notably softer. While Redbook’s year-to-year measure typically runs higher than the ICSC view, it also indicated a slippage in sales growth this past week.

	Week Ended 10/5	Week Ended 9/28
ICSC Week-to-Week Change	-0.1%	+0.2%
ICSC Year-Over-Year Change	+1.8%	+2.1%
Redbook Year-to-Year Change	+3.3%	+3.8%

While weekly data can be influenced by weather and holidays, the year-to-year comparisons seem to vet that possibility and confirm slowing activity. What we do know is different about this week is the fact that the U.S. government is shutdown, and more importantly for consumer spending, the media is making sure Americans know about it. In fact, the truly dire consequences of a debt ceiling debacle have been described by the President, the media and everyone else who could benefit from the attention as potentially “catastrophic” and likely leading to a deep recession. That’s not the kind of discussion that inspires Americans to go out and spend money.

Meanwhile, and just as concerning, I recently noted one Tea Party Congressman’s misguided disregard for the October 17 deadline as he discussed an October-end Treasury auction on television Monday. In my expert view, even approaching the deadline could insight rating agency downgrade of America’s sovereign credit rating again, and that is highly troublesome to me. If two rating agencies were to downgrade our credit, it would be equivalent in its impact to the economy as a real default on our sovereign debt. Passing the deadline is unfathomable to just about everyone but the sector of Congress I describe as holding this issue hostage. It’s my view that the stock and bond markets will begin to truly reflect panic on or before October 17 if it appears the deadline will pass. Depreciating financial securities affect the pocket books of every American with a corporate pension plan, and thus, affect consumer sentiment and spending.

American consumers already have enough reason to worry, given a still fatigued U.S. economy with its lagging employment recovery. Though, until recently, investors have been unfazed by most crises. Still, the really serious issues do finally garner investor attention. For instance, Americans have gotten used to upheaval overseas, but when it seemed we might get involved in another war, stocks started lower. The same thing is happening as this unreasonable bargaining chip is placed on the roulette table. In fact, it’s Russian roulette that the U.S. Congress is playing, with the full faith in credit of the United States at stake. It’s not an issue up for gambling, and yet it is being put into play today.

Consumers and investors are being made aware of that fact, no matter which channel they choose to watch or website they determine to read. And now that the consumer seems to reflect worry, a recently hot group of stocks is also reflecting it. Consumer discretionary and retail store shares have been market leaders this year, as our table below illustrates. It may be time to take profits.

Security	Since September	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)	-1.5%	+16.2%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY)	-2.4%	+24.7%
SPDR S&P Retail (XRT)	-2.8%	+27.8%
Wal-Mart (WMT)	-1.4%	+6.8%
Amazon.com (AMZN)	-3.0%	+20.9%

Wal-Mart (WMT) stands out in this table, and not in a good way. It has lagged the performance of the other four securities, including its online rival, Amazon.com (AMZN), which is up sharply this year but down the most over the last week. Wal-Mart is America’s most important brick and mortar retailer, but it has struggled on a relative basis of late. That is in part due to a September report that inventory was piling up at the megastore chain. The inventory issue was described by an executive of the company, as relayed by a CNBC report I witnessed, as a part of doing business in retail. However, I posit that if Wal-Mart, the destination of America’s poor and new poor, is seeing slower sales, then there’s a broad-reaching problem.

Chart at Yahoo Finance

Amazon.com (AMZN) is down after this report by Barron’s, but its valuation has been questionable for some time. If consumers are cutting back even at discounters, then we really have a problem, and so might shareholders of even Amazon.com and Wal-Mart.

Chart at Yahoo Finance

There are profits to be taken in the consumer and retail sector, as evidenced by the gains in the XLY and XRT securities this year. Furthermore, the month of October often offers disappointment, and can be a transition period due to the end of fiscal year for many institutional investment funds around this time. With important profits at stake now in the retail and consumer discretionary stocks, and with signs of consumer sentiment falloff and spending issue, investors in the segment should likely take heed and sell the group.

Economists should also note the warning signs in this critical driver of the American economy. If I may conclude with one informal point: I believe that any economist not advising government representatives today of the dire risk in dealing in the debt ceiling issue is an irresponsible economist wasting his expertise. It is up to the experts to cure ignorance about economic issues. I’m doing my part here.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why the Week’s 4.7% Same-Store Sales Growth is Misleading

By The Greek:

It sounds fantastic! Retailers reported weekly same-store sales increased by 4.7% week-to-week in the period ending March 30. That is great news right? No, it’s not, and here’s why.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported same-store sales rose 4.7% week-to-week in the March 30 period. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 1.9%, though Redbook saw the yearly comparison for the period even better, at plus 3.5%. Perhaps readers suspect we might pooh-pooh the news by attributing the sales growth to discounters like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or to online sellers like Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), due to their stealing of market share from the Macy’s (NYSE: M) and J.C. Penney’s (NYSE: JCP) of the world. No, that’s not it. So what’s wrong with the numbers then?

Well, a peak at the prior week’s results offers a clue. In the week ending March 23, the ICSC reported same-store sales were down 1.7% week-to-week. The yearly comparisons were likewise poor, with sales only 1.0% higher according to the ICSC and 2.6% higher according to Redbook. The reason is really rather simple.

It’s about the Easter holiday and where it sits on the calendar this year versus last year. This year, Easter fell on March 31st, and last year it fell on April 8th. Sales were strong in the week of Easter and Passover because of the surge of seasonal sales tied to the holidays, not all of which are accounted for perfectly. Consider all the flowers 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. (Nasdaq: FLWS) sells and all the Easter Baskets CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) sells, all the Easter Bonnets Macy’s (M) sells and all the new dresses J.C. Penney (JCP) sells. Let’s not forget the Easter and Passover meals that lead families to gather together, and the necessary shopping at Kroger’s (NYSE: KR) and Whole Foods Market (NYSE: WFM).

For this reason sales picked up in the week before Easter as they do every year. From this understanding, we garner insight about next week as well, because last year the week incorporated Easter shopping and this year it will not. Thus, these same-store sales reports should show poor comparable results on a weekly and yearly basis when reported next Tuesday.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Don't Get Caught in JCP Short Squeeze

J.C. Penney (JCP) divergence from retail stocks (XRT).

J.C. Penney’s (NYSE: JCP) shares tanked more than 17% Thursday on the company’s latest EPS report disaster. Sales at Penney’s stores and its internet shop fell by 28.4% in its latest quarter against the prior year period. The company lost $1.95 a share this past quarter on an adjusted basis, against last year’s adjusted EPS of $0.21.

However, JCP’s embattled CEO Ron Johnson stated the company would seek to “reconnect” with its old core customers. Such an effort required the new chief to swallow his pride and back off his previously determined path away from sales promotion. With JCP shares down 59%, though, from their peak last February, shareholder and likely Board pressure was building on the once heralded boss-man to do something. Had he not acted, Johnson might have gone the way of Groupon’s (Nasdaq: GRPN) Andrew Mason, who was let go yesterday after his company’s earnings disappointment (one of many for Groupon).

Last May, I suggested at Seeking Alpha that investors sell J.C. Penney, which to me seemed to be taking on too much change too soon in its effort to more closely resemble Macy’s (NYSE: M). Those who sold the stock preserved a good deal of capital or made money on the short side. Today, though, I upgraded JCP to hold from sell, basically due to Johnson’s decree to revert to tried and tested sales methods. I could not bring myself to call it a buy just yet, though, as I’m not sure JCP’s team will do enough fast enough to make a meaningful impact. Besides, it may be too late to recover much of those lost sales, though I believe it can be done.

Most importantly to traders, JCP is on the rise Friday. I think the shares could continue to get some lift after the prior day’s deep decline, given the CEO’s important announcement. Also, there’s a decent chance Johnson could still get the boot, especially after GRPN got a double-digit lift Friday on the firing of Mason. Given JCP’s divergence from the SPDR S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT), it seems to me that a great majority of the blame could be attributable to Johnson and his team’s strategic changes. Yet, short positions should be closing out now and a squeeze would support JCP shares near-term whether the company deserves it or not.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Retail Sales Report for August Crimped by Gas Prices

In a day offering the first real test for stocks since the latest Federal Reserve quantitative easing program, with five economic reports on the slate, Retail Sales led the opposition. You would have thought that retail sales growth of 0.9% on the month, a Street beating figure (consensus at +0.8%), would be good news. However, as always, I’m here to put the report under the microscope and show you why it is not.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

While sales beat Wall Street on the headline, our survey of the report shows that to prove misleading. The first important point to make is that Retail Sales for the month before (July) were revised lower, to +0.6%, from +0.8% when reported initially. The effect of lowering your basis for comparison is to raise the percentage gain for the current period if the result comes close to being in line. Thus, unlike the percentage change superiority over the economists’ consensus, you bet your bottom dollar that the absolute forecast figure for the consensus is closer to the absolute real result for August.

The second point I want to make is that this data does not adjust for price changes, and so is influenced by price changes, including in volatile food and energy. Thus, when we take out the sales of autos and gasoline, we find that those sterilized retail sales only increased by 0.1%, against the revised higher July gain of 0.9%. Wall Street is not stupid, and so incorporated the monthly increase in gasoline prices to find an adjusted expectation for a 0.4% gain here. Obviously, that’s still too high and so the result is a disappointment on all counts.

Looking within this data, we see the catalyst is not autos. Ex-auto sales still increased 0.8% in August, off the unadjusted prior increase of 0.8% in July. So, you can contain your concern for Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) that might have been tied to this report. Those two stocks were up in the early going, probably because of market focus on this line detail.

However, gasoline station sales gained sharply on the higher price of gas in August. Those sales rose 5.5% against July, driving the top line of companies like The Pantry (Nasdaq: PTRY), but also of course Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX).

Retail trade sales, which is what most people think about when they hear this report cited, increased by 0.9% in August, against the 0.7% gain in July. However, we’ll need to once again focus on the specific types of sellers to really glean anything important for the stocks you own. General Merchandise Store sales declined by 0.3% in August, after a 0.1% increase in July. While this category would include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), it also includes non-discount department stores like Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Macy’s (NYSE: M) and J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP). Though department store sales, when broken out, rose 0.1% in August, against their 0.8% gain in July. I think that what this data is telling us is that the pie shrinking and so there will be winners and losers when these companies next report earnings.

Ahead of the new Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone release, the sales of Electronics and Appliance Stores like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) fell by 1.4% in August, versus their 1.0% gain in July. Obviously, things will change as we incorporate the new iPhone into forward sales.

Supporting the case for homebuilders and renovators, the sales of Building Material and Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers like Home Depot (NYSE: HD) increased by a solid 1.0% in August, following the 1.2% gain made in July.

Food and beverage sellers, including grocery stores, saw sales unchanged in August. Without incorporating any change in food prices in the month, this could be due to less eating out at casual dining establishments like those provided by Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) and Darden (NYSE: DRI) restaurants. With regard to grocery, Wal-Mart is gaining share from traditional markets like those provided by Supervalu (NYSE: SVU) and Kroger (NYSE: KR).

Clothing and accessories stores like Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and The Gap (NYSE: GPS) may not have gotten a good enough lift from back-to-school shopping, given the segment’s sales declined 0.1% against July. Of course, this is also going to be a fashion and smaller pie story, with some stores gaining as others lose customers.

Non-store retailers, including some of America’s favorite destinations like eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) saw no change in August sales, against a 1.9% increase in July. We might pin the July gain to the heat, keeping consumers in their air conditioned homes, shopping away on their laptop. August is a holiday period, but no change is unexpected here, given the heat and also back-to-school. Perhaps consumers don’t have time to wait for shipping, or be home to receive during the vacation period ahead of the start of school, but that’s just speculation. We’ll have to wait on September to know for sure.

All in all, August looks like a disappointment for retail sales in my estimation, save perhaps the auto industry and gasoline providers, and also the construction materials peddlers. It may be the higher price of gasoline that hurt the rest of the sector. As it looks like gasoline prices are only going higher from here, given geopolitical fires and capacity constraints, not much should change for the better. The consumer mood is deteriorating on a once again apparently weakening domestic economy. In conclusion, this report supports my case for the spread of recession to our shores not too long from now.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Consumer Confidence Drops to 5-Month Low

After falling precipitously in May, Consumer Confidence fell even further this month, to a 5-month low. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 62.0 in June, against economists’ expectations for a monthly reading of 63.5 based on Bloomberg’s survey. The index marked even lower ground than May’s dive to 64.4, revised down from 64.9 at its initial reporting. The reasons should be clear, as economic data points have trended poorly and European issues have raised question about impact to our economy, the financial system and the value of stocks. This strikes Americans where it hurts, their retirement savings accounts. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) was essentially unchanged on the news, while the more closely tied Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY) was surprisingly higher by more than a half point Tuesday morning. Though the SPDR S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT) was moving lower, as would be expected.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Consumer Confidence

Lower confidence has not yet reflected perfectly through to actual consumer spending, though recent retail trade data has been softer. The reason is probably better understood via study of the component measures of the confidence tally. The consumer view of the present situation actually increased in June while expectations for the future declined. The Present Situation Index gained to 46.6 in June, up from 44.9 last month. The Expectations Index, which varies more wildly driven by fear and greed, dropped to 72.3 this month, from 77.3 in May. The absolute value of the index as compared to the Present Situation measure says something about the optimism of Americans with regard to money making hope, while also reflecting their close following of global financial market news.

Yet, it’s not just intangibles that are affecting the views of those surveyed. The latest employment data has been less than enthusing; in fact, most domestic economic data points seem to me to be trending poorly. The question is: will consumers pull back their spending in a more significant manner? Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, had something to say about that today:

"Consumer Confidence declined in June, the fourth consecutive moderate decline. Consumers were somewhat more positive about current conditions, but slightly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. Income expectations, which had improved last month, declined in June. If this trend continues, spending may be restrained in the short-term. The improvement in the Present Situation Index, coupled with a moderate softening in consumer expectations, suggests there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term."

If you look at the details of the monthly data, the absolute values have continued to reflect a terribly poor situation, while the changes month-to-month are highlighted by the popular press as either great or disastrous news.

• 14.9% of consumers say business conditions are good
• 35.1% say business conditions are bad
• 41.5% say jobs are hard to get
• 7.8% say jobs are plentiful
• 15.5% expect business conditions to improve over the coming six months
• 16.2% expect business conditions to worsen
• 14.1% see more jobs ahead
• 20.6% see fewer jobs
• 14.8% expect their income to increase

The component survey results show a clearly pessimistic feeling about the current situation, which reflects poorly for the economy and consumer spending, in that it could be much better. Certain retailers have benefited and should continue to benefit from such an environment, including especially Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), Costco (Nasdaq: COST) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). As far as stock recommendations go, I favor DLTR over the rest for reasons discussed within this report. Keep receiving articles like these by following me at the blog and via email. Thank you.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Factors Driving Retail Sales Gains

March’s Retail Trade data showed headline sales increased 0.8% in February, better than economists foresaw (+0.3%), as activity jumped 6.5% against the prior year period. The regular adjustment made to the headline is to weed out important auto sales. When we do that, we find March sales still increased 0.8%, again better than the economists’ consensus (+0.6%). At times, gasoline prices play an important role in the sales of retailers in aggregate, and certainly for gas sellers like The Pantry (Nasdaq: PTRY). Over the last six months, gasoline has been an issue worth noting. In March, when weeding out sales of gasoline and autos, sales still rose by a robust 0.7%. Sales at gasoline stations were 1.1% higher in March and were up 7.6% against the prior year.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

A Look at Retail Sales

But beware, because some price change is still missed, given the feed flow of petroleum and other commodity prices into goods and services generally. Back in 2007, I was warning that the then considered negligible long-term impact of changes in food and energy would become important through the next couple decades as those changes increasingly reflected evolving secular supply demand dynamics. That’s because as prices anchor higher for increasingly tighter commodities markets, they will find their way into all goods, and the core price increase will rise along with the headline… inflation thus cometh in my view. Given the nascent trend of the world’s central banks to flood fiat currency, we may see what I called back then, an “economic fishtail,” leaving us flailing at the wheel to regain control of the economy.

My warnings about price change might be playing out as early as now within the auto industry. While sales were higher in March according to the Retail Sales report, unit sales were reported lower for the same month, on an annualized basis. Domestic vehicle unit sales marked an annual pace of 10.9 million for March, which was down from the 11.4 million pace reported for February. Much depends on the basis used to annualize the sales pace, meaning how many trailing months are employed or whether it is simply annualized on the last month’s data, which could have unique influences playing upon it. Nevertheless, the data tells a story of economic value maximization and a new patience in the auto industry.

Regarding inflation, the latest CPI data for March showed a 0.3% monthly price increase and a 0.2% price increase when excluding food and energy. Producer prices were reported flat on the headline, but 0.3% higher at the core for March. The last reported Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (for February) showed a 0.3% price increase in aggregate and a 0.1% increase when excluding food and energy. Certainly, the economic concern about Europe and the global economy have quelled price increase until now. This is the reason, after all, that world’s major central banks remain in expansionary mode. However, creeping gasoline prices have still contaminated the environment, and because of Iran, they threaten to do worse.

Building Materials & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers reported a 3.0% sales increase in March, and have noted a 14.1% increase over the prior year. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) marked better than 1% gains Monday as a result. This segment is significantly less important than autos these days, but is not inconsequential. The year-to-year increase likely reflects the improved economy, and within housing, the growth of multi-family projects for our developing renter nation. I wonder, though, how much spring tornado activity in the nation’s center and seasonal hurricane activity along the Southeast Coast influence this data, as they drive significant construction across vast regions of the country. Due to the earlier spring this year, based on temperatures, it seems the seasonal surge of tornadoes perhaps is making a difference for March. Certainly there are many varied factors at play for the builder supply segment and each segment within the complex retail trade.

Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores noted a 1.1% sales increase in March, which is pretty strong too. But, when insurance companies are paying, what would hold people back from restocking their homes post calamity? Let’s face it, though, while the broad housing industry continues to reel, market share eating, large publicly traded contractors like PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) are reportedly seeing good growth. That growth may be somewhat aided by pent-up demand, with fears of home price decrease fading. That said, I continue to warn investors that a nascent economic stumble should penalize the shares of market sensitive builders nevertheless.

It’s hard to argue with the Clothing and Accessories growth of 0.9%, the Electronics & Appliance Store growth of 1.0%, or the General Merchandise Stores gain of 0.7% in March, except to say that the earlier spring likely supported the month’s production. Retail industry analysts will note the importance of reading March and April together for this reason. Certainly, recent reports from the likes of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) put the economic health of consumer spending in question. However, much of the sales lost by Best Buy are gained by Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and other “nonstore” retailers (+0.7%).

Generally speaking, and based on the factors discussed here, I would have to call this latest Retail Trade data neutral in aggregate. That said, I remain cautious about the consumer segment, given my concern for the economy tied to starving Europe and stumbling China, not to mention the economically handicapped U.S., with our still too high unemployment. Finally, I remind short-sighted investors that a disruptive Iran event is lying in waiting, and should surprise nobody upon its activation. Though it will surprise most greedy hands that keep dirty seeking short-term gains.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

March Madness for Consumers

The close to last week offered up a sour tasting consumer report, and given the slew of related data produced through week, we thought we would take a look at the state of the American consumer today. The latest reporting of consumer confidence put a dent into the roaring market’s rise, with the SPDR Dow Jones Industrials Average ETF (NYSE: DIA) looking tired Friday. What I see in store for retail and the consumer discretionary sector is not as savory as the profits logged year-to-date therein.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

March Madness

On the week, we received at least five consumer relevant economic reports, including the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the ICSC –Goldman Store Sales data. None of it really stymied the market’s rise through the week, with the SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (NYSE: SPY) gaining 2% through Friday’s close. In fact, I suspect Friday’s reported Consumer Sentiment Index slippage was only partially responsible for the market’s intraday reconsideration of the week’s stock gains; though what’s behind the new consumer view played a major role.

Consumer Sentiment fell by a point, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan survey. The index declined to 74.3, from February’s 75.3, setting early stock action at odds with the week’s trend. The key driver of the slip was inflation expectations, which pulled down the overall expectations component. Rising gasoline prices have consumers worried about how the critical cost might eat into their lifestyles. But, as of now, consumers don’t yet see gasoline prices sticky. When that happens, you have a real problem for this consumer driven economy.

Just a day earlier, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index offered a different perspective. Bloomberg’s weekly measurement of the consumer mood improved to -33.7, from -36.7 the week before. The driver of this change was of course the latest labor market gains, as seen in the nonfarm payroll rise in the Employment Situation Report and in the latest week’s Jobless Claims dive to a four-year low mark.

So just how important have gasoline prices been given the divergence in these two metrics. Clearly, they have been more important over the course of the month than the week. The Consumer Price Index was just reported for February Friday. It showed a 0.4% increase in prices, largely on gasoline (+6%) and overall energy price increase (+3.2%). Excluding food and energy, the Core CPI only edged 0.1% higher, which was less than expected (+0.2%) and less than January’s 0.2% gain. However, if petroleum remains elevated for long enough, the impact could seep into the cost of goods eventually. Granted, “long enough” is probably longer than the world will wait for Iran to comply. Thus, I think you can count on inflation, because war with Iran would only compound on the pressure weighing on petroleum prices.

The latest indicators of consumer spending included two reports published this past week. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) produced another soft result. The ICSC report showed week-over-week sales growth at 0.7%, with the year-to-year change at just 2.3%. The latest crisis at J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD) offers evidence that capacity remains extended, and there will be winners and losers competing for limited consumer funds.

Retail Sales were reported for February earlier this week, rising 1.1%, a swifter pace than January’s 0.4% gain. Hold your horses though, because gas station sales added a bunch to taint tangible growth. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.9%, and when taking out gasoline and autos, growth managed just 0.6%. That was in line with the economists’ consensus and matched January’s pace. The growth was still impressive to some of us who have been looking for a consumer sector slide. Bite your tongue before berating me for that view, though, because the economic trial I’ve been looking towards appears to be developing.

Investors in the consumer and retail sectors should be happy enough so far this year, with the SPDR Select Sector Fund – Consumer Discretionary (NYSE: XLY) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) up roughly 14% and 16%, respectively, through March 16. Yet, I reiterate and renew my warning. Beware the ides of March, for they bring European economic struggle and higher gasoline and energy prices. I expect your labor market support to crack soon enough as a result. I reported recently on the undermining I anticipate for still unsure small business confidence. Much of that should have catalyst in crushed consumer confidence. In conclusion, I remain concerned about the vulnerable economy given the weights upon it and the risks against it.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Retailers' Sales Face the Abyss

Not long ago, Wall Street Greek warned investors to sell short the retail industry. You may not have noticed, as the call came out in the flurry of all the excitement about how great a holiday shopping season we had just concluded. Today, as the government reported the latest Retail Sales data for January, you may still have a chance to join the short side, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) only down fractionally in morning trade Tuesday and still fattened 17.7% over the last 52-weeks by its superficial stride. Meanwhile, the SPDR Select Sector Fund - Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: XLY) is up 9.5% over the last 52 weeks, both after adjustment for splits and dividends.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relevant Tickers: NYSE: XRT, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE.

Retailers' Sales Growth Slowing

The Census Bureau reported Retail Sales increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, but that was short the economists’ consensus view for a 0.7% gain, based on Bloomberg’s tally. Meanwhile, the government revised December down to no change, cut from the previously noted inching upward by 0.1%. A glance at the top line data seems to show much of the weakness derived from the auto sector, as sales ex-auto improved 0.7%. That better level was superior to the consensus estimate for a 0.6% increase. However, ex-auto sales benefited from a downward adjustment to the December sales rate, which was dropped down to -0.5%, from the -0.2% previously noted. The shares of U.S. auto makers Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) are off on this news, down 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively in early trade Tuesday.

With the latest pressure applied by rising gasoline prices, many will be interested in the trend ex-gasoline and autos. On this line, sales improved 0.6%, and the December rate was also ratcheted higher to +0.6% from no change previously reported. With regard to rising gasoline prices, we do better to realize that this factor contributes to all consumer spending sooner or later. Thus, if we focus on the current satisfactory figure, we ignore an inevitable decline in spending that will more closely match with stock market performance moving forward. As pressure continues on tension tied to escalating Iranian event risk, gasoline prices should keep their support. It’s one of the reasons the west has shied away from attacking Iran in the first place, given the economic vulnerabilities of North America and Europe. Gasoline prices impact the savings and spending of most Americans, especially those who spend the most, the employed. Furthermore, this factor will certainly impact the spending of the under-employed hanging on the fringe of solvency.

While the retail sales pace seems to be slipping, optimists will note that the pace of retail sales was still up 5.8% from January 2011. Excluding autos, the year-over-year sales pace improved 5.5, but take note that gasoline station sales were up 7.4% on significantly higher gas prices. This fact seems to help nobody, given the shares of The Pantry (Nasdaq: PTRY) are off 23% over the trailing 52 week period.

Sales at Building Materials & Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 8.1%, but before celebrating a housing revival, realize that prices are up on these commodities as well. Still, this may help to explain the 26% 52-week share gain of Home Depot (NYSE: HD).

Food Services and Drinking Places saw an 8.2% year-to-year gain, and this sector is certainly a destination of consumer discretionary funds. Yet, a sampling of several restaurant stocks shows a wide variety for the palate. Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) shares are up approximately 3.2% over the last 52-weeks through February 13, adjusting for dividends and splits. Meanwhile, the shares of Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) have done much better, rising 14.9%.

What concerns us today is the current trend, or rather, answering the question, “Is consumer spending slowing.” The answer is not so clearly discovered, considering the ongoing shift to discount and online retailers, which offer an economically strapped nation a better option. General Merchandise Stores saw sales gain 2.0% in January, but Department Stores marked only a 1.0% increase. Clothing Stores marked no change in January, while Electronics & Appliance Stores marked a 0.5% increase, thanks no doubt to innovation in the space and the drive of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and others. Non-store Retailers, or the catalog and internet salesmen, saw a 1.1% sales decline in January, but I suspect inadequate seasonal adjustment here, given the holiday push and market share gains.

There is no doubt that an innovative retail sector squeezed all it could from the American consumer this past shopping season, but I suspect consumers remain on suicide watch. Thus, I see this latest trend of slowing retail sales continuing to slug along given the weight of old pains like stubborn unemployment and dragging domestic confidence, and new stresses like that I see from an Iran event. Therefore, I reiterate my late 2011 suggestion that investors short the retail sector, as this latest economic data is only supportive of my economic argument. The Ugly Economic Secret is indeed out.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.