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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Factors Driving Retail Sales Gains

Albert Einstein
March’s Retail Trade data showed headline sales increased 0.8% in February, better than economists foresaw (+0.3%), as activity jumped 6.5% against the prior year period. The regular adjustment made to the headline is to weed out important auto sales. When we do that, we find March sales still increased 0.8%, again better than the economists’ consensus (+0.6%). At times, gasoline prices play an important role in the sales of retailers in aggregate, and certainly for gas sellers like The Pantry (Nasdaq: PTRY). Over the last six months, gasoline has been an issue worth noting. In March, when weeding out sales of gasoline and autos, sales still rose by a robust 0.7%. Sales at gasoline stations were 1.1% higher in March and were up 7.6% against the prior year.

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Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

A Look at Retail Sales

But beware, because some price change is still missed, given the feed flow of petroleum and other commodity prices into goods and services generally. Back in 2007, I was warning that the then considered negligible long-term impact of changes in food and energy would become important through the next couple decades as those changes increasingly reflected evolving secular supply demand dynamics. That’s because as prices anchor higher for increasingly tighter commodities markets, they will find their way into all goods, and the core price increase will rise along with the headline… inflation thus cometh in my view. Given the nascent trend of the world’s central banks to flood fiat currency, we may see what I called back then, an “economic fishtail,” leaving us flailing at the wheel to regain control of the economy.

My warnings about price change might be playing out as early as now within the auto industry. While sales were higher in March according to the Retail Sales report, unit sales were reported lower for the same month, on an annualized basis. Domestic vehicle unit sales marked an annual pace of 10.9 million for March, which was down from the 11.4 million pace reported for February. Much depends on the basis used to annualize the sales pace, meaning how many trailing months are employed or whether it is simply annualized on the last month’s data, which could have unique influences playing upon it. Nevertheless, the data tells a story of economic value maximization and a new patience in the auto industry.

Regarding inflation, the latest CPI data for March showed a 0.3% monthly price increase and a 0.2% price increase when excluding food and energy. Producer prices were reported flat on the headline, but 0.3% higher at the core for March. The last reported Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (for February) showed a 0.3% price increase in aggregate and a 0.1% increase when excluding food and energy. Certainly, the economic concern about Europe and the global economy have quelled price increase until now. This is the reason, after all, that world’s major central banks remain in expansionary mode. However, creeping gasoline prices have still contaminated the environment, and because of Iran, they threaten to do worse.

Building Materials & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers reported a 3.0% sales increase in March, and have noted a 14.1% increase over the prior year. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) marked better than 1% gains Monday as a result. This segment is significantly less important than autos these days, but is not inconsequential. The year-to-year increase likely reflects the improved economy, and within housing, the growth of multi-family projects for our developing renter nation. I wonder, though, how much spring tornado activity in the nation’s center and seasonal hurricane activity along the Southeast Coast influence this data, as they drive significant construction across vast regions of the country. Due to the earlier spring this year, based on temperatures, it seems the seasonal surge of tornadoes perhaps is making a difference for March. Certainly there are many varied factors at play for the builder supply segment and each segment within the complex retail trade.

Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores noted a 1.1% sales increase in March, which is pretty strong too. But, when insurance companies are paying, what would hold people back from restocking their homes post calamity? Let’s face it, though, while the broad housing industry continues to reel, market share eating, large publicly traded contractors like PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) are reportedly seeing good growth. That growth may be somewhat aided by pent-up demand, with fears of home price decrease fading. That said, I continue to warn investors that a nascent economic stumble should penalize the shares of market sensitive builders nevertheless.

It’s hard to argue with the Clothing and Accessories growth of 0.9%, the Electronics & Appliance Store growth of 1.0%, or the General Merchandise Stores gain of 0.7% in March, except to say that the earlier spring likely supported the month’s production. Retail industry analysts will note the importance of reading March and April together for this reason. Certainly, recent reports from the likes of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) put the economic health of consumer spending in question. However, much of the sales lost by Best Buy are gained by Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and other “nonstore” retailers (+0.7%).

Generally speaking, and based on the factors discussed here, I would have to call this latest Retail Trade data neutral in aggregate. That said, I remain cautious about the consumer segment, given my concern for the economy tied to starving Europe and stumbling China, not to mention the economically handicapped U.S., with our still too high unemployment. Finally, I remind short-sighted investors that a disruptive Iran event is lying in waiting, and should surprise nobody upon its activation. Though it will surprise most greedy hands that keep dirty seeking short-term gains.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, April 09, 2012

The Labor Market is Not Well

sick, ill, not wellLast Thursday, when the Weekly Jobless Claims data was reported, I was stunned by one major television network’s world news program’s reporting of job creation. They pointed to the relatively low new unemployment claim filings as a sign that jobs were being created. It was flawed, because new layoffs are not perfectly tied to new hiring. I find it karmic that just one day later, the monthly Employment Situation Report showed soft net job additions for the month of March. Indeed, the truth is, Main Street is not well. As a result, stocks generally, and the stocks of employment services firms Robert Half (NYSE: RHI), Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY), Manpower (NYSE: MAN) and Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), continued their slide from last week again Monday.

famous bloggersOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Labor Market



Last week offered a slew of employment data that provide us an opportunity to take good measure of the labor market. Most notably of all data points was of course the Employment Situation Report. March’s publishing showed that nonfarm private payrolls rose by 120,000 jobs on net, which was about half the prior three months’ average of +246K. Most importantly, that’s not really enough to keep the unemployment rate improving. It did improve, though, in March by a tenth of a percentage point, to 8.2%. However, that gain came on the unfortunate loss of 333K people from the labor force. You can fall out of the labor force for many reasons, like retirement for instance. However, I expect too many of America’s long-term unemployed have exhausted their extended weekly unemployment benefits, and are increasingly dropping off the radar.

Some 5.3 million Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks, representing 42.5% of the total unemployed pool. The number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons, meaning they would prefer full-time jobs, decreased by 447K in March. I do not believe these part-timers got lucky and found full-time work; rather, I expect they are on the leading edge of layoffs and portend trouble for the economy. The 34,000 job shedding in the retail trade would seem to say the same thing.

Brazilian blowout NYCThe latest reporting of announced corporate layoffs by Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated something else on the headline. According to the firm, planned layoffs dropped 27% in March, to a 10-month low of 37,880. The thing is, though, that the most important employers in America are small businesses; and their activities are harder to capture. Small business confidence has been on the rise in recent months, but has remained at historically low levels. The National Federation of Independent Business measure of the group is due on April 10.

March was also the lowest of the three months of the first quarter in terms of layoff announcements. The quarter itself, however, marked a 9.4% increase in announced firings versus the prior year period. Year-to-date data indicates the most weakness in consumer products, transportation and now call centers, which are clearly economically sensitive sectors. T-Mobile contributed a bunch to March call center contribution, as did Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and QVC. An interesting contrast to 2011 and indicated by both reports, the public sector was less of a factor in March. Still, Challenger warns that significant cuts are likely at both the federal and local government levels this year.

In conclusion, I want to stress and reiterate that I believe the economic situation will deteriorate near-term, rather than improve as many believe. This forecast is what drives my jobs view, and what keeps me attuned to leading indicators. Recent economic data, including several reports from China and Europe, offer good reason for concern for the global economy to which we are tied. Indeed, recent expansionary efforts from China also point to an internal understanding of an important disruption. Government action, opening up markets for foreign investment, helped spur some excitement around Chinese firms of late, but the action was likely the result of trouble within. U.S. data around manufacturing, consumers and housing have all offered a suspect odor, and the stench of Europe threatens as well. Thus, I continue to favor investments with a long-term flavor, including the recently weakened gold as a hedge against trouble.

Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.PK), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Phillies

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Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Crack Expands in Housing Sector

house demolitionThe week’s data flow produced another crack in the foundation of the Real Estate sector and pounded housing stocks as well. After raising the volume on my bear call for housing over recent weeks, I suppose all I can say today is...

I told you so!!!

real estate bloggerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Housing Rally Failing



Construction Spending was reported Monday for the month of February, and the shares of homebuilders suffered a shock as a result. Total Construction Spending declined 1.1% in February, stunning economists who had forecast an increase of 0.7% at the consensus. When economic data misses significantly against the economists’ view, we see impact to stocks, whose valuation estimates are often influenced by the macro view at Wall Street firms, and are driven by relative sector strategy and industry favoritism as a result.

The shares of homebuilders took a sledge hammer to their bearing walls on the news, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) off 0.75% on a day when the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) rose 0.73%. The XHB’s beta based on three years of data is listed as 0.99 by Yahoo Finance; that’s pretty much a 1.0, and yet the security moved in the polar opposite direction of the broader market Monday. Obviously, that was due to the industry specific information, which was outweighed in the broader market by the much more currently relevant global manufacturing data that reached the wire Monday. I say “more currently relevant” because of the severe shrinkage of the housing market over recent years and the numbed expectations for it within the stock market.

Homebuilder shares were broadly lower, with industry players Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH), PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN) all lower on the day. Several are lower again today, like Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and Beazer (NYSE: BZH).

More than the general drop in construction spending, which was affected by a 1.6% decrease in non-residential construction, the housing industry took a blow due to a 1.5% decline in new single family home construction. Multi-family projects fared well again, but a renter nation is not indicative of a healthy economy. Multi-family construction rose a full two percentage points in February, continuing its drive of overall residential construction activity.

In conclusion, I offer again one important caveat that is important for the larger publicly traded homebuilders in strong enough capital position to capitalize. The overall weakness of the housing industry has offered many of these firms a great opportunity to take market share. I expect that this is the key reason some have reported solid business results through a generally soft industry environment. I also believe this should support the shares of relative companies, especially once recovery is detected in earnest.

That said, I also believe the market does not perfectly understand this industry critical fact, and so housing stocks will be punished without discretion as the economic deterioration I expect unfolds. In the end, I believe all of such discounting will prove warranted, as the economic scenario I see as most likely is dire, and not one not generally forecast by economists. I have offered tidbits of information regarding this view in articles, but it is not specifically relative to this report. So, I will have more to say about it in the future within a detailed forecast for the economy.

Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Investors Title (Nasdaq: ITIC), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO), Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Manufacturing Sector has No Business Rallying

manufacturing industryOver the course of the last week, we’ve received several manufacturing sector reports, which offer an opportunity now for a timely review of the sector. The slew of reports culminated in Monday’s reporting of the ISM Manufacturing data, and also include last week’s data from the Federal Reserve branches of Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City, plus the latest Durable Goods Orders data and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Tuesday brings a fresh update on Factory Orders as well.

manufacturing analyst reporter columnist bloggerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: BA, NYSE: RTN, NYSE: DGI, NYSE: GY, NYSE: GD, NYSE: GR, NYSE: NOC, NYSE: HON, NYSE: LMT, NYSE: COL, NYSE: LLL, NYSE: ERJ, Nasdaq: FLIR, Nasdaq: BEAV, NYSE: TDG, NYSE: SPR, NYSE: CAE, NYSE: ATK, NYSE: HXL, NYSE: TGI, NYSE: ESL, NYSE: MOG-A, NYSE: HEI, NYSE: TDY, NYSE: CW, Nasdaq: CVCO, NYSE: SKY, Nasdaq: NOBH, Nasdaq: PHHM, NYSE: MHK, Nasdaq: IFSIA, NYSE: AIN, NYSE: UFI, NYSE: ITW, NYSE: TYC, NYSE: CMI, NYSE: KUB, NYSE: IR, NYSE: DOV, NYSE: ITT, NYSE: FLS, NYSE: PLL, NYSE: DRC, NYSE: SPW, NYSE: GDI, NYSE: IEX, Nasdaq: NDSN, NYSE: GGG, NYSE: ATU, Nasdaq: MIDD, NYSE: ABB, NYSE: ETN, NYSE: NJ, NYSE: ROK, NYSE: AME, NYSE: RBC, NYSE: TMB, Nasdaq: WGOV, NYSE: CAT, NYSE: DE, NYSE: CNH, Nasdaq: JOYG, Nasdaq: BUCY, Nasdaq: AGCO, NYSE: EMR, NYSE: PH, NYSE: ROP, NYSE: PNR, NYSE: WM, NYSE: RSG, Nasdaq: FAST, NYSE: VMC, NYSE: MDU, NYSE: MLM, NYSE: OC, NYSE: VAL, NYSE: PCP, NYSE: X, NYSE: RS, NYSE: CRH, NYSE: CX, NYSE: EXP, NYSE: FLR, NYSE: MDR, Nasdaq: FWLT, NYSE: ICA, NYSE: SWK, NYSE: TKR, NYSE: KMT, NYSE: LUK, NYSE: MAS, NYSE: WY, NYSE: PWR, NYSE: CBI, NYSE: EME, NYSE: SNA, NYSE: TTC, NYSE: GM, NYSE: F.

Manufacturing Sector Review



The latest ISM Manufacturing Report showed the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched higher to a mark of 53.4% in March, up from February’s 52.4% read. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a less robust gain to a consensus forecast of 53%. A close inspection of the data shows the pace of New Order growth slowed, export growth dropped sharply, prices ran high and customer inventories were too low. In other words, the details reveal something less appealing than the headline seen in the popular press, as usual. Given that this index has flirted with the threshold to sector contraction since last summer, there seems little reason to draw much comfort from it today. This index is particularly important these days as it flirts with the breakpoint between economic expansion and contraction. Historic data indicate that a reading above a mark of 50 generally reflects expansion in the manufacturing sector, where readings below 50 indicate sector recession. Read more on this specific report here.

Last week, we received a slew of key data that should prove useful to measure the health of the manufacturing sector. It seems most appropriate to begin this retro-discussion with the important Durable Goods Orders data for February. After a difficult result in January, Durable Goods Orders came up short again in February. New Orders for Durables increased 2.2%, missing the consensus of economists’ views, which had been set at +2.9% for the month, based on Bloomberg’s survey. The data point was partially impacted by an upward revision to January, which was hiked to -3.6% from -4.0% at its initial reporting. Still, the month missed the mark even when accounting for the revision. Excluding transportation, thus eliminating the influence of the high ticket items that tend to skew the overall data wildly month-to-month, orders rose 1.6%. This data point, while fighting the tide of an upward revision to January’s result, still exceeded the economists’ consensus for a 1.5% increase.

Breaking out manufacturing from the Durables Report, we see that the sector experienced a 2.8% increase in new orders. That was certainly good news and a positive sign for the sector. The month’s increased orders marked a nice change from January’s 5.1% decline. Still, February’s ordering activity remained 2.5% below December’s activity. Furthermore, Manufacturing Shipments were down 0.5% in February, following a 0.7% drop in January.

cakesLast week’s regional Federal Reserve branch manufacturing reports offer a different message than ISM’s headline did Monday. Across Dallas, Richmond, Kansas City and Chicago, the message was the same, slower growth which surprised economists on the short side. The Dallas Fed reported its Business Activity Index fell to 10.8 in March, from 17.8 in February. The monthly reading missed the economists’ consensus forecast for 15.5, and was deeply short of the lowest forecast for a reading of 15.0, as measured by Bloomberg. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped sharply to a mark of 7, from 20 in February. This index reading, like Dallas, again deeply missed the economists’ consensus forecast for 18 and fell under the lowest forecast for 15. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to 9 in March, from 13 in February. Finally, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) retreated to 62.2, from 64.0 in February. It was likewise short of economists’ views for 63.0 in March.

The message seems clear. Manufacturing expansion is slowing in March at a pace faster than expected by economists. It’s unclear at this point, based on the data, whether the manufacturing sector might contract after nearly 3 years of expansion or not. However, anecdotal reports I receive about the Greek economy and my view of the situation seem to say Greece and Europe will deteriorate worse than the talking heads atop the troika are reporting. With 20% of our exports selling into Europe, we cannot escape impact. It’s also my view that China will pay the price for its exaggerated economic expansion effort, and find a hard landing of its own before long. Finally, I fear the Iranian trigger could so disrupt global trade that a global recession will ensue with costly results for overextended central banks and currencies. My forecasts have tended to lead popular understanding, due to my independent, unbiased position and my willingness to make forecasts contrary to the popular view.

Thus, I reiterate my view that the day’s market rally on manufacturing data was misplaced, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) closing up 0.7% on the day. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI) was up more than the broader indices before giving way toward the close (+0.65%). Within the industrials group, sector players Cummins (NYSE: CMI), Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMI) and Caterpillar posted gains of roughly 1% or so, while Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Electric (NYSE: GE), UPS (NYSE: UPS) and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) were about unchanged or fractionally lower. I expect any gains made on nascent data will evaporate.

See also this article for more on the ISM Manufacturing Report.

This article should interest investors in Boeing (NYSE: BA), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Digital Globe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Honeywell (NYSE: HON), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm (NYSE: TDG), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Moog (NYSE: MOG-A), Heico (NYSE: HEI), Teledyne (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), Cavco (Nasdaq: CVCO), Skyline (NYSE: SKY), Nobility Homes (Nasdaq: NOBH), Palm Harbor Homes (Nasdaq: PHHM), Mohawk Industries (NYSE: MHK), Interface (Nasdaq: IFSIA), Albany International (NYSE: AIN), Unifi (NYSE: UFI), Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW), Tyco International (NYSE: TYC), Cummins (NYSE: CMI), Kubota (NYSE: KUB), Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR), Dover (NYSE: DOV), ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT), Flowserve (NYSE: FLS), Pall (NYSE: PLL), Dresser-Rand (NYSE: DRC), SPX (NYSE: SPW), Gardner Denver (NYSE: GDI), IDEX (NYSE: IEX), Nordson (Nasdaq: NDSN), Graco (NYSE: GGG), Actuant (NYSE: ATU), Middleby (Nasdaq: MIDD), ABB (NYSE: ABB), Eaton (NYSE: ETN), Nidec (NYSE: NJ), Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK), Ametek (NYSE: AME), Regal Beloit (NYSE: RBC), Thomas & Betts (NYSE: TMB), Woodward Governor (Nasdaq: WGOV), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Deere (NYSE: DE), CNH (NYSE: CNH), Joy Global (Nasdaq: JOYG), Bucyrus (Nasdaq: BUCY), Agco (Nasdaq: AGCO), Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR), Parker Hannifin (NYSE: PH), Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Pentair (NYSE: PNR), Waste Management (NYSE: WM), Republic Services (NYSE: RSG), Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST), Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC), MDU Resources (NYSE: MDU), Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE: MLM), Owens Corning (NYSE: OC), Valspar (NYSE: VAL), Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP), United States Steel (NYSE: X), Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS), CEMEX (NYSE: CX), Eagle Materials (NYSE: EXP), Fluor (NYSE: FLR), McDermott International (NYSE: MDR), Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq: FWLT), Empresas ICA (NYSE: ICA), Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK), Timken (NYSE: TKR), Kennametal (NYSE: KMT), Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK), Masco (NYSE: MAS), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY), Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR), Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI), EMCOR (NYSE: EME), Snap-on (NYSE: SNA), Toro (NYSE: TTC), GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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