GoPro (GPRO) – The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

When GoPro (Nasdaq: GPRO) reported its fourth quarter earnings last week, there were three key points; one was really good for the company, one was unfortunately bad for shareholders, and the final point was just ugly and unexpected. After rising sharply in early after-hours trading on the good news first discovered by antsy traders, the stock then collapsed on the bad and the ugly. But one of the three factors will matter a great deal more than the others moving forward, and drive the stock price direction higher long-term. See the free report on GoPro here. This article should also interest Ambarella (Nasdaq: AMBA).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long GPRO. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

GoPro's Super Bowl is Thursday (GPRO)

The next few days will be big for GoPro. In fact, I think its stock is a good bet to go longer than the passes thrown by Tom Brady and Russell Wilson in the Super Bowl. GoPro (Nasdaq: GPRO) shares have been knocked down significantly since the company let down high-hopes at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), in my opinion. But GPRO’s latest decline has situated the stock at a sweet spot just ahead of what should be a strong upside catalyst, its earnings report, due Thursday February 5th. Recall that simple speculation about a potential operational announcement at CES sent the stock soaring off similar lows previously. The heavily shorted name remains sensitive to good news, and there is an excellent chance it will have some of that to report this week, so I expect the stock to begin moving ahead of its report and to continue to rally through it. See the GoPro (GPRO) stock report here.

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long GPRO. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

March Madness for Consumers

The close to last week offered up a sour tasting consumer report, and given the slew of related data produced through week, we thought we would take a look at the state of the American consumer today. The latest reporting of consumer confidence put a dent into the roaring market’s rise, with the SPDR Dow Jones Industrials Average ETF (NYSE: DIA) looking tired Friday. What I see in store for retail and the consumer discretionary sector is not as savory as the profits logged year-to-date therein.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

March Madness

On the week, we received at least five consumer relevant economic reports, including the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the ICSC –Goldman Store Sales data. None of it really stymied the market’s rise through the week, with the SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (NYSE: SPY) gaining 2% through Friday’s close. In fact, I suspect Friday’s reported Consumer Sentiment Index slippage was only partially responsible for the market’s intraday reconsideration of the week’s stock gains; though what’s behind the new consumer view played a major role.

Consumer Sentiment fell by a point, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan survey. The index declined to 74.3, from February’s 75.3, setting early stock action at odds with the week’s trend. The key driver of the slip was inflation expectations, which pulled down the overall expectations component. Rising gasoline prices have consumers worried about how the critical cost might eat into their lifestyles. But, as of now, consumers don’t yet see gasoline prices sticky. When that happens, you have a real problem for this consumer driven economy.

Just a day earlier, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index offered a different perspective. Bloomberg’s weekly measurement of the consumer mood improved to -33.7, from -36.7 the week before. The driver of this change was of course the latest labor market gains, as seen in the nonfarm payroll rise in the Employment Situation Report and in the latest week’s Jobless Claims dive to a four-year low mark.

So just how important have gasoline prices been given the divergence in these two metrics. Clearly, they have been more important over the course of the month than the week. The Consumer Price Index was just reported for February Friday. It showed a 0.4% increase in prices, largely on gasoline (+6%) and overall energy price increase (+3.2%). Excluding food and energy, the Core CPI only edged 0.1% higher, which was less than expected (+0.2%) and less than January’s 0.2% gain. However, if petroleum remains elevated for long enough, the impact could seep into the cost of goods eventually. Granted, “long enough” is probably longer than the world will wait for Iran to comply. Thus, I think you can count on inflation, because war with Iran would only compound on the pressure weighing on petroleum prices.

The latest indicators of consumer spending included two reports published this past week. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) produced another soft result. The ICSC report showed week-over-week sales growth at 0.7%, with the year-to-year change at just 2.3%. The latest crisis at J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD) offers evidence that capacity remains extended, and there will be winners and losers competing for limited consumer funds.

Retail Sales were reported for February earlier this week, rising 1.1%, a swifter pace than January’s 0.4% gain. Hold your horses though, because gas station sales added a bunch to taint tangible growth. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.9%, and when taking out gasoline and autos, growth managed just 0.6%. That was in line with the economists’ consensus and matched January’s pace. The growth was still impressive to some of us who have been looking for a consumer sector slide. Bite your tongue before berating me for that view, though, because the economic trial I’ve been looking towards appears to be developing.

Investors in the consumer and retail sectors should be happy enough so far this year, with the SPDR Select Sector Fund – Consumer Discretionary (NYSE: XLY) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) up roughly 14% and 16%, respectively, through March 16. Yet, I reiterate and renew my warning. Beware the ides of March, for they bring European economic struggle and higher gasoline and energy prices. I expect your labor market support to crack soon enough as a result. I reported recently on the undermining I anticipate for still unsure small business confidence. Much of that should have catalyst in crushed consumer confidence. In conclusion, I remain concerned about the vulnerable economy given the weights upon it and the risks against it.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Consumer Wisdom Disagrees with Market Speculation

The stock market was inspired by what appears to be a constructive European action and better than expected GDP growth for Q3, but the consumer mood, of which we received three measurements last week, still spells trouble.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relevant Tickers: NYSE: XRT, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE.

Consumer Wisdom Disagrees with Market Speculation

The Dow Jones Industrials Index was up 3.1% from the close of trading Wednesday through the conclusion of the week. The catalyst was of course the announcement of the planned action in Europe to resolve the Greek debt crisis and to solidify European banks moving forward.

Solid economic results here at home helped the market along as well. GDP was reported up 2.5% for the third quarter, marking a significantly more robust rate of growth than the second quarter’s 1.3% struggle; though GDP benefited from a deteriorated U.S. savings rate. Durable Goods Orders, ex-transportation, were reported up 1.7% in September. On Friday, Personal Outlays (spending) was noted up 0.6% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase; though it benefited some from higher prices. Still, the news was mostly perceived to be relatively strong across important economic metrics, and it supported the market’s burst on the European fix.

All that said and done, we received three measures of the consumer mood last week, and none reflected the nascent enthusiasm of stocks. Of course, the measurements were all taken ahead of the news breaks of the week’s catalysts. Still, how much better off are consumers today versus when they were surveyed? I suspect they are still knee deep in it. Furthermore, it’s my belief that Europe might yet implode, and if it does not, it still faces a struggle. In the States, I’ve already outlined the flaws of the economic drivers, and call attention to a still burdensome unemployment rate, unfair trade environment and handicapped capitol. Let’s not forget the rising tide of civil unrest. By the way, did you know Wall Street Greek warned about civil unrest in the U.S. well before the first few protestors gathered in Manhattan?

As far as American consumers see it, the economic situation remains troubled. I’m inclined to believe their opinion more than the speculative market that drove stock prices higher Thursday but failed to build upon the move Friday. Furthermore, too many high flying and recently reliable companies are warning about the road ahead if not failing to satisfy today, with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), Cree (Nasdaq: CREE), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), VMware (NYSE: VMW), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) letting shareholders down in one way or another this quarter. And while some investors may have forgotten this important fact last week, I remembered that the last Challenger Jobs Report showed a significant number of announced corporate layoffs, and that unemployment and economic growth seemed more likely to deteriorate than to improve based on Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and other economists’ updates of the last several weeks.

Consumers are feeling ill; there’s no doubt about that. Early last week, the Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index dropped dramatically in October, to a mark of 39.8, from a poor base of 46.4 in September. The main components of the index, which comprise the views of the present situation and expectations for the next six months, declined in union. The consumers’ view of the present situation was simply horrible, with the representative index down to 26.3, from 33.3. The Expectations Index collapsed to 48.7, from 55.1, clearly illustrating lost hope. According to Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, "Consumer confidence is now back to levels last seen during the 2008-2009 recession.”

Bloomberg reports its Consumer Comfort Index weekly, so it offers a very relevant and fresh view of the consumer mood. Bloomberg’s index fell to minus 51.1 in the week ending October 23, from negative 48.4 the week before. Not only was it the worst reading in a month, but it reflected levels not seen since the Great Recession, which we are supposed by many to have recovered from. Do you notice a recurring theme here yet?

On Friday, the University of Michigan, in conjunction with Thomson Reuters, reported its Consumer Sentiment Index for the close of October. This measure varied from the other two in that it projected improvement. The Michigan Index gained to 60.9, from a sour 57.5 mark at the start of the month. However, it was only up slightly against September’s close, when the index measured at 59.4. The current situation component of this index improved slightly to 75.1, from 74.9, but that’s a negligible change. What was telling was what happened in the expectations component of the index. It improved, yes, to 51.8 from 49.4. However, it improved from a near 30-year low, which was marked at the start of the month. The point is that while the expectations index showed improvement, it was from a historical trough, and those expectations remain at a point reflecting very tough times.

The measures these indexes produce should not be given too much weight for their direction, whether they show improvement or deterioration, but they should be watched closely for absolute value, trend and magnitude of change. The trend of course depicts a more meaningful direction than one month’s change, and the magnitude of change, given a margin of error, matters more than slight directional movements. Of course, the absolute value of all three indexes was poor, despite the differences of the three. What I see in these indexes is a situation that still spells trouble, and given the distance Europe must yet travel to truly survive its crisis, and the soft or tangential drivers of U.S. economic data improvement, I think consumers are wiser today than the market was for one day last week.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Consumer Confidence Rose but Much has Changed

Consumer Confidence rose in July according to the Conference Board, but the Index was measured on July 14th, when America still expected its representatives in Washington to act responsibly. I have a feeling if the survey were taken today, it would return a significantly different result.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relevant Tickers: NYSE: XRT, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE.

Consumer Confidence Rose but Much has Changed

The Conference Board Index, produced through a survey by The Nielsen Company, showed an improvement in July, to 59.5, up from 57.6 in June. Economists didn’t venture far from the prior month’s mark, perhaps a sign of uncertainty among the forecasters, as they set the bar at 57.0.

The reading was mostly higher, though marginally so, due to expectations for the next six months, not due to the current situation. And Lord knows, if the “current situation” were representative of July 26th (the midnight hour), well then we might be looking at a fractional result. The Present Situation Index fell to 35.7 from 36.6, and the Expectations Index gained ground to 75.4 from 71.6.

The component measure covering survey respondents’ views of current business conditions offered an intriguing result that perhaps reflects the broader divide that seems to be developing in the nation. The number of Americans seeing better opportunity and deteriorated opportunity both increased, illustrating a polarization of views. With regard to employment, those seeing an improved employment environment remained at an extremely low level, while the number of folks finding jobs harder to get increased to an even more significant number.

In conclusion, the absolute level of the Consumer Confidence Index is bad enough to begin with, so the small change for the better should be discounted. Secondly, the date of measurement and its distance from the current date matter this time around. That said, depending on what happens between August 2nd and now, and contingent upon the wisdom and restraint of S&P (NYSE: MHP) and Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), August’s index measure could be wildly higher or reflective of the Apocalypse, in this analyst’s view.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

RL EPS Q4 FY 2011 - Polo Ralph Lauren Offers Complexity

QUICK TAKE
Polo Ralph Lauren

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

RL EPS Q4 FY 2011

Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) shares were down 11% Wednesday, after it reported 36% lower fiscal fourth quarter net income. The $0.74 a share it earned was short of the $0.79 forecast by analysts. The company said the prior year included an extra week, costing it perhaps $0.13 this year. RL also blamed a shift in the Easter holiday, but investors were not listening, since the analysts’ forecasts would have included those factors. Same-store sales increased 7%, and the company forecast first quarter revenue climbing in the mid-20% range. Same-store sales are seen slipping though to a low double-digit rate. RL experienced a narrowing gross margin, as "unprecedented inflationary pressure" plagued it. The entire industry is seeing higher raw materials costs and also increased wage demands in China. This complex report shows that managing volatile supply, i.e. wildly rising cotton prices, offers an uncertainty that can cost investors.



Article should interest American Apparel (NYSE: APP), Carter’s (NYSE: CRI), Cherokee (Nasdaq: CHKE), China Xiniya Fashion (NYSE: XNY), Columbia Sportswear (Nasdaq: COLM), Crown Crafts (Nasdaq: CRWS), Delta-Apparel (AMEX: DLA), Ever-Glory International (AMEX: EVK), Frederick’s of Hollywood (AMEX: FOH), G-III Apparel (Nasdaq: GIII), Gildan Activewear (NYSE: GIL), Hampshire Group (OTC: HAMP.PK), Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI), Jaclyn (OTC: JCLY.PK), JLM Couture (OTC: JLMC.PK), Joe’s Jeans (Nasdaq: JOEZ), Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ), lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU), Maidenform Brands (NYSE: MFB), Oxford Industries (NYSE: OXM), Perry Ellis (Nasdaq: PERY), Phillips-Van Heusen (NYSE: PVH), Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), Quiksilver (NYSE: ZQK), Superior Uniform (Nasdaq: SGC), Tefron (OTC: TFRFF.PK), Warnaco Group (NYSE: WRC), Triumph Apparel (OTC: TRUA.PK), True Religion (Nasdaq: TRLG), Under Armour (NYSE: UA), V.F. Corp. (NYSE: VFC), Wacoal (Nasdaq: WACLY), Zuoan Fashion (NYSE: ZA).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

HRL Q2 2011 EPS - Hormel Faces Challenging Pricing Dynamics

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Hormel Foods

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

HRL Q2 2011 EPS

Hormel (NYSE: HRL) shares were down 5% Wednesday, as the company is having issue managing its pricing along with its rising costs. HRL grew EPS 41% to $0.40, but analysts were looking for $0.41 a share. Meanwhile, the company earned less income on stronger revenues than analysts had anticipated. It looks as though Hormel has not matched its rising costs perfectly, but the cure for its ailment may not be higher prices in a competitive environment. Hormel did raise its guidance, but analysts were already expecting that. The consensus view now for the full year is $1.71, sitting above the center of the company’s guidance for $1.67 to $1.73. In my view, Hormel seems to be executing rather well considering a difficult and dynamic environment, but it appears investors are worried about the environment more than Hormel’s execution.



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