Assured Mutual Political Destruction

With the debt ceiling legislation hijacked by a previously unnecessary and now contingent balanced budget debate, each party accuses the other of misguided direction, political shenanigans, and outright lies. The end result is that the government body itself stubbornly holds course toward what looks to me like absolute economic catastrophe and assured mutual political destruction. What would this lead to but further fragmentation of the nation, bifurcation of the classes, intensified hatred of Washington, and the demise of many standing politicians? In other words, chaos rules at the controls of our country, and we have worse to look forward to.

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Assured Mutual Political Destruction

Thanks to the service of Gallup, we know that only about 18% of Americans approved of their government (Congress) in early July, and you can bet your swiftly depreciating dollar that less of our countrymen care for Congress today. President Obama’s approval rating is at its all-time low of 40%, and so Washington seems engaged in a war of attrition. It’s like the DC war cry is “let’s see who survives the lynching and go from there.”

The Democratic Party initially sought compromise which would have included revenue increase through the restoration of upper echelon tax rates that stood under President Bush. As the deadline moved closer, Democratic Party demands backed out of “revenues” and into deep cuts into Republican taboo topics, including the defense budget. Let’s not even talk about the subsidies for the oil companies, lest I throw up. For separate reasons, neither idea has been digestible by the GOP.

With regard to the tax issue, it bothers me that through the power of PR this temporary tax cut put in place by the Bush Administration has morphed into a proposed “Democratic tax hike on small businesses.” You know, there are ways around the issue so that small businessmen bear no burden while the wealthiest among us pay to play in the rich American economic ballpark they have thrived in. We’re not talking about raising taxes, but restoring them to pre-financial crisis levels. These were temporary tax breaks to begin with, which was widely understood by all, so what exactly is the problem now? This is a burden the rich should be willing to bear now (Warren Buffet is), with the economy at risk. Business concepts work in America because we have consumers, but we may soon have conspirators in their stead. You know, baseball is a lot less fun to play in the desert than in a lush green ballpark. Consider that please before you turn the nation into a desert… You know who likes the desert? The snake thrives in the dry hole below the barren ground.

Democrats have stubbornly held onto liberal social treasures, and I’m glad about some of that, because I’ve seen days without healthcare. That is something Canadians never knew, and yet in the “greatest nation on earth,” many Americans have; that’s because they were too poor to afford health insurance but surviving just well enough to be disqualified for Medicaid. Living among these people has allowed me a perspective too many Republicans can’t relate to. Keep in mind that other than being a true blue American, I don’t know what I am anymore politically speaking, so I call myself independent when it comes to party play. If I were ever to rejoin the Republican Party, I would be a reformist (like a Reagan), and if I hitched up with the Democrats, I would be a special old fashioned sort (like JFK) with a lean toward center. What I’m not is certain, and that’s a classic politician; somehow I feel like a lot of you fit into the same description these days. Here’s to Americans and to taking back the power to the people!

There’s an understanding now that some tweaking (or is it gut wrenching) to the entitlement programs is probably necessary to more swiftly bring the budget into balance, and to do so in a lasting manner. Each party is of course wary of disturbing the growing elderly base of the nation, and so the wording around these programs is cunning. They’ll use the words “entitlement programs,” rather than the commonly understood by grandma, “Social Security” or “Medicare.” Each party seeks the high ground, and reassures our seniors that they are not going to pay for our balanced budget. Then they blame the other for being anti-seniors. Let’s face it, it’s the poorer elderly who rely on Social Security, so it’s an issue the Democrats defend and the Republicans are more willing to target for cuts. But it’s probably true that there will be no America as we know it without at least some tweaking that seniors might hardly notice in their daily lifestyle. You know, maybe the retirement age can hack a small increase, or perhaps a minor medication cost hike could be managed? It seems the Republicans sought a bit more under Congressman Ryan’s plan, but political poison has now quarantined it. In fact, the Democrats very likely effectively took out their greatest potential threat in Ryan, the GOP’s young and rising prospect for president, because of his bold but extended and vulnerable reaching.

With regard to the debt ceiling, it would seem that some Americans in the Republican Party are buying into the ignorant and dangerously negligent voices of Congressmen like Jim DeMint and those freshmen Tea Party members elected on frenzy. It has to be either negligence or purely evil intention, one or the other, holding up the debt ceiling legislation; because the result that threatens is a paradigm shift in the effective economics of American capitalism. What is being undermined is the risk-free asset, upon which all value is based. Picture if you will an upside-down pyramid as the global economy, at the point where it touches the earth are U.S. treasury bills, the risk-free asset. It is baked into every security valuation, every interest rate, the bar every corporation has to create economic value over. If we raise that bar, we severely harm all financial securities, the investors/retirees/consumers who own them, the companies at play, and the jobs they manage. That’s not even accounting for the higher cost of borrowing for consumers directly, through the mortgages they finance, the credit cards they drown under, etc.

This nonsense about constitutional amendment to require the federal government to balance its budget the same way the states do may have some merit. However, it should not be tied to the passage of the debt ceiling nor the budget cutting being incorporated with that now. Tea Party Republican members were elected on a promise, that they would not raise taxes but would limit government spending. I say to you, your word is valuable, but not when it stands between right and wrong. It is wrong to drive our economy into a firestorm for the sake of stubbornness PERIOD. The American people are in agreement on this, and those who are not must not comprehend how dramatically life would change as a result of the downgrading of American credit.

I stand much closer to the Democrats on this issue while maintaining my independence, because I cannot make sense of the new found religion of the Republican Party here. We’re talking about the party that took President Clinton’s balanced budget and flushed it down the toilet. Now suddenly, the blame goes to President Obama? Who do you think you are fooling with these lies? Perhaps it’s the majority, but it is not the one who matters.

In the case of the balanced budget and a potential rating agency downgrade, this was a topic that was taboo and not even on the radar screen not too long ago. It was literally brought into the realm of possibility by the conversation of politicians. Now Standard & Poor’s has been so emboldened as to warn of a downgrade even in the event of a debt ceiling hike, if it is in the absence of meaningful budget balancing measures. Politicians brought this issue to the tip of the tongue of every American, and created a political power-point for a group of agencies that have yet to suffer penalty for their significant role in helping to create the MBS and financial crisis to begin with, at least in my view and the view of several Congressional panel members who held inquiry of them when the matter was fresh.

You want to talk about the constitution? Let’s talk about the constitution! Under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution in Section 4, Congress is charged with the responsibility to honor debts incurred by law. And it reads, “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”

There’s a war being waged for political opinion, as the influential seek to play on the financial illiteracy of the nation for the sake of constituent support, personal gain and ignorance. The argument is one that employs judgments of negligence, as each party blames the other (as usual), and while doing so puts the very foundation of American finance at risk of undermining. What politicians should consider is the certain result of putting party goals over national interests, and that is in this case the demise of the Republic.



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House Votes Down Libya War, then Slips Obama a Twenty to Buy a Gun

I woke up Friday morning to the sound of the television playing lightly. I had fallen asleep watching Hillary Clinton testify about the highly disputed withdrawal from Afghanistan, just announced this week by President Obama. Thus, C-SPAN was probably the cause of my rough night’s sleep, full of nonsensical complaints from Democrats, Republicans and anarchists on the Independent line at 3 AM.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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House Votes Down Libya War, then Slips Obama a Twenty to Buy a Gun

I woke up to a preacher opening the House of Representatives with a prayer. That strange sight was followed by a clearly novice Congressmen reciting the Pledge of Allegiance in what seemed like a rite of passage. The politicians littering the sparsely populated hall faced the flag behind the Speaker of the House, who turned his back to me to do the same. I think it was the first time I’ve heard the pledge recited since elementary school. Thus, I had to pinch myself, because it was like some strange nightmare reminiscent of past fantastic scares caused by watching Craig Ferguson and drinking Jamaican Rum.

I woke up from the dream before I died, I suppose ahead of murder by an angry Representative. Dennis Kucinich lambasted his Democratic brother, the president, for his unconstitutional war on Libya. The Ohio little-man’s advocate surely risked a heart-attack, raising his blood pressure to its maximum so early in the morn. I remembered how he once flew in Air Force One to the Midwest, when the president needed him to back off his righteous rant for an important vote. I thought, well at least I can be sure he wasn’t brainwashed or microchipped or replaced by an alien on that day, because he was adamantly in opposition to President Obama on this day. Why he was mad was not so clear. It could have been because he couldn’t keep up his streak of running for president this coming election year, with the incumbent Obama blocking the way. Or, it could have been the same reason Congressman Pall mentioned, which was the president’s oversight of the constitution when determining to rain down rockets on Muammar Gaddafi.

You can’t blame Obama for not coming to Congress for approval, despite the fact that the declaration of war is still within the realm of the people’s house. I mean, if I were President, I would also follow the lead of Ronald Reagan and every president since when determining I needed to knock some sense into a despot. They would have to pull that whip from me kicking and screaming.

On this day, the House was voting to authorize conflict with Libya about 100 days after the start of the latest fabulously named war game - Operation Odyssey Dawn. Cool right? It’s like the Desert Storm nonsense the Pentagon designed to drum up recruits. I suppose they have PR people devising them, and like a trailer for a film it draws your support. The name of these operations also tricks twittering teens without college admission tickets into enlisting into the marines. Odyssey Dawn has a different ring to it than “I’m going to risk my life for a bunch of ragtag Libyan tribesmen.”

I wonder if the Libyan issue is not at the core of this week’s torrential trading, yet while still hidden behind the popular press’ vision. You see, Libya produces high-quality oil, the kind refined into the all important gasoline at the heart of the latest consumer concern and manufacturing mayhem. It’s no coincidence that oil spiked and fired gasoline to $4 once conflict erupted in Libya, not to mention the mess in Bahrain.

As time has passed, it’s become clear that no Libyan, not Gaddafi nor angry toothless peasant fighter-man, has interest in disrupting the nation’s sacred cash cow. And with the lip service of the Saudi’s following OPEC’s greedy grimace, we now have the IEA releasing 2 million barrels a day (over 30 days) from its emergency reserves. The U.S. is also contributing to this supply from its strategic oil reserve. You see, while it took a while, the highly touted economic Brainrust hired by the Obama Administration, finally figured out that gasoline matters to the economy and that Libya matters to gasoline. It’s sort of like a 2+2 math equation, so the Ivy Leaguers up there missed it. They were understandably spending their time with algorithms designed to determine how far the downfall would be if the debt ceiling were allowed to collapse. All in good time, or rather, all in short time… I suppose that catastrophe will cue the third horn blowing angel. I fell asleep before intermission, so forgive me if we are up to the fourth siren already.

Anyway, the House of Representatives took up two important bills Friday involving the hostilities in Libya, though the Obama Administration says they are more like a slap-fight than “hostilities,” which would have required them to cease unauthorized operations already by law. The first legislation, taken up while Kucinich was still boiling, was the authorization for the President to wage a watchamacallit - but not a war - against Libya. The House, with a ragtag group of Democrats and Republicans, voted that down. Yet, with the President’s argument that what he’s having in Libya is just a little harmless argument between friends, only employing missile firing Predator aircraft like sharp biting words, he could continue.

The second bill could have stopped him though, as it covered the appropriation of funding toward the conflict. However, those same so-called righteous representatives voted that bill down, thereby slapping the President’s hand and enjoying the solid short-takes they’ll use in their campaigning next year. Jolly good service my dear proxies.

In any event, Libya matters. Since we started on this path, we must now get the semi-catatonic Gaddafi out of office in order to secure safe passage of Libya’s special oil. We’ll design a top of the line constitution for the toothless tribesmen who take over to corruptly run their government, and everything will get back to normal. It seems the Europeans also understand the importance of winning the war in Libya, and are in it with conviction. Thus, it should be a short time now before we hear the song sung in Tripoli, the King Slug is dead, long live the new CIA implant!

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Set for Life with an Unemployment Check, a Can of Natural Ice and a Phillies Blunt Cigar

Chillin with My Check

It seems 424K Americans are heading into Memorial Day weekend with at least some cash in their pockets. Perhaps it’s just enough for the casino bus to Atlantic City, where they hope they might turn a government handout into a jackpot to set them up for life.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Set for Life with an Unemployment Check, a Can of Natural Ice and a Phillies Blunt Cigar

The Department of Labor reported Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose again last week, to 424K; that’s 10K more than the prior week’s revised count. It’s not a good sign after plenty other bad signs throughout the month of May, a dark period that saw tornadoes run wild and unemployment insurance claims re-establish themselves above the 400K mark. The four-week moving average can attest to that, sitting now at 438,500.

I suppose the lull in hiring, which we assume paralleled the increase in jobless claims, was the result of damaged consumer confidence and its result, lighter consumer spending. This article is being published ahead of the government’s Personal Income & Outlays data, due out Friday morning. We’ll receive some sort of color on consumer spending with that release. Though the report will cover April, while these weekly jobless claims announcements reach the wire fresh. Even so, economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the pace of spending to slow to +0.4%, versus the 0.6% pace set in March. What is supposed to accelerate is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, which is seen rising 0.2%, against the 0.1% increase in March.

Cue Snoop Dog CD here...

It was rising prices this past month that stalled consumers, especially gasoline, which touched $4 a gallon. That’s high enough to keep Americans planted in their backyards with a can of Natural Ice. That’s the cheap beer of the day; you old timers can liken to Milwaukee’s Best, or The Beast, as it’s known among serious beer connoisseurs. You can grab a six pack of Natural Ice for less than $5, and it goes well enough with a Phillies Blunt cigar, the poor man’s Partagas. Heck, sitting on a stoop with the two of those and the gang, listening to a baseball game on a sultry summer night, well it just doesn’t get much better… You can keep your stuffy Midtown bar and your vain, superficial, ravenous foreign lady. I’ll take my American girl and my American game.

Supposedly, insured unemployment fell by a tenth of a point, to 2.9% in the lagged May 14 period. In case you were counting reality, the number of Americans collecting on some sort of UI program numbered 7,739,572 in the May 7 period, which is quite a bit more than 2.9%. And that don’t include the poor saps who have given up, and the poorer of spirit saps who are swallowing their pride waiting tables or writing to the ether-world. Though, at least the poor saps have time to spend with The Beast.

We always like to give you the skinny on regional unemployment so here it is:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 7 were in Alaska (5.5 percent), Puerto Rico (4.3), Oregon (4.2), Pennsylvania (4.0), California (3.9), Nevada (3.7), New Jersey (3.7), Connecticut (3.6), Illinois (3.6), Idaho (3.4), Rhode Island (3.4), and Wisconsin (3.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 14 were in Florida (+1,340), Georgia (+747), New Mexico (+415), Idaho (+282), and Hawaii (+236), while the largest decreases were in California (-6,828), Michigan (-6,740), New York (-2,569), Alabama (-2,093) and Wisconsin (-2,079).



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9-11 Eyewitness - Osama Bin Laden Death has Shaken True Evil

Only Through Turbulent Waters Can We Transgress Evil to Find a Peaceful Consequence

The day after the death of Osama Bin Laden, a 9-11 eyewitness finds pain intertwined with peace.

9-11 Eyewitness - Osama Bin Laden's Death Has Shaken True Evil

Late Sunday evening, the White House prepared the press and public for a surprise presidential press conference. It was an announcement long overdue, and so late in coming that we could not have even imagined it. Just a day after an attack on Libya nearly killed Gaddafi, we thought perhaps this briefing was related. Then sweetly, the news leaked that U.S. Special Forces reached and killed Osama Bin Laden, the sinister and devious leader of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization that destroyed the World Trade Center’s Twin Towers and three thousand innocent Americans, including my colleagues on Wall Street. For those of us who shuttled through the Financial District in Downtown Manhattan daily, that dark shadow shattered our hearts. But at last, after several shots in the dark, a righteous bullet begun on its journey long ago by another president has finally eliminated this true evil from the earth.

But while Americans exhale and exclaim that justice is served, many of us are remembering solemnly yet again our lost brethren who only went to work one morning and never returned, who died because they were scheduled to be in the Trade Center on Tuesday, rather than Thursday, as I was scheduled. For those of us who felt the fumes burning our lungs and our eyes, those eyes that watched with disbelief as our brothers leapt from burning death to assured demise; whose throats itched from the fine debris we breathed in that day and thereafter; who had our solemn silence in the fall days that followed regularly interrupted by the slamming down of steel remnants of legendary structures on their transport to a damned place called Fresh Kills, sanctified by the blood of innocence - for us this is not a happy day. It is as if we have been transported back to September 12th all over again, so while we have some further closure, we also have renewed pain.

Now, while Americans embrace justice, the enemy becomes more likely to flail out at us. In places where America is viewed with jealousy; where the red, white and blue flag is burned; and where the effigy of every American leader is regularly defaced; where American journalists are beheaded simply because of their religion or nationality; in those places this justice is viewed instead as a reason for new vengeance. So, while May should have been more peaceful absent of this heinous excuse for a so-called religious leader, instead it becomes a month of high concern.

I remember now the famous words of someone I read often, "He who lives by the sword, dies by the sword." Killing only begets killing, so brace now my American brothers, because the enemy will come. But, it is written that no matter how horribly we suffer on earth, a righteous final victory is ensured. Thus, have no fear but of God and of His final judgment. Therefore, I say let them come. We will be ready, with our righteous God and our hopeful ideology. For only through turbulent waters will we disrupt an evil world, in order to embrace it in a peaceful consequence.

Also see My 911

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