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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Friday, July 12, 2013

PEG Ratio - Kaminis Yield Adjustment (PEG-KYA)

Kaminis
Markos Kaminis earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

The Price-to-EPS-to-Growth Ratio (PEG) seeks to value a stock relative to growth expectations and is useful for investors seeking Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP). The measure is used to value growth stocks. In the case of a growing company that also pays dividends (a sort of hybrid), the measure fails to incorporate the portion of capital return from the dividend yield.

The paying out of dividends weighs on growth for companies that can readily find it. It is also a substitute capital use (return to shareholders) for a firm that is considered better off not investing toward growth that may be beyond its reach or better suited for other firms. Investors can make the capital investment decision for themselves. For instance, it makes no sense for a company like McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) to engage in the development of a new electronics product, especially since I can buy Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), a top notch producer of novel electronics, myself.

Analysts’ earnings models incorporate the drag of the dividend in that growth is tempered (or saved for some) by that other use of cash versus investment in (or destruction of) the business. Still, dividend payouts affect the price of a stock as well, especially when value is largely in current equity, since a fractional portion of its total value is being paid out; and that would lower the P/E ratio to meet the lower growth outlook.

Still, assuming a company can maintain a dividend yield level and P/E ratio level as it grows means a certain return results to the investor. This is what matters, and why my adjustment makes sense. Perhaps this is most pure when the PEG ratio is 1.0 and assumed to stay that way. So, why not add back the dividend yield to the capital growth return expectation or the analysts’ five-year average annual growth forecast, since it contributes to total return just the same? That is exactly what I seek to do in my Kaminis Yield Adjustment to the PEG ratio. Let’s call this the Kaminis Yield Adjusted PEG Ratio or PEG-KYA©™ - this is hereby copyrighted and trademarked, along with all variations and uses including for forecasting target prices for stocks.

Perhaps this argument cannot hold forever as companies age, but what argument can? If it can hold for five years, the length of the growth forecast, then the valuation metric should be valid and useful.

Incorporating the Kaminis Yield Adjustment (KYA) to the PEG Ratio The process is rather simple. All you need to do is to first consider the five-year average annual EPS growth forecast as a capital appreciation or return estimate. Since the dividend yield also contributes to total return, simply add the dividend yield to the five-year growth forecast or the denominator of the PE/G ratio. This gives us a total return estimate, which we can then compare to the P/E ratio value. It’s going to give credit to a company for its dividend payout, and more accurately reflect value, especially in the case of hybrid growth/dividend payers. This measure can also be used to estimate future value and to forecast target prices. I’ll produce a second article to help investors to do that. Look for additions and corrections within the comments of this blog post.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Markos Kaminis

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Friday, July 15, 2011

Special Factors in the Latest Jobless Claims Data

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Weekly Jobless Claims eased sharply, weekly same-store sales soared and mortgage activity dropped off. There was a common denominator that threw a wildcard into the period for which each of these data-points were reported. While much of this data compensated for the July 4th holiday, none of it takes into account the effect of such holidays on business activity in the immediately preceding and following days.

geniusOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB

Special Factors in the Latest Jobless Claims Data



Weekly Jobless Claims eased by 22K to 405K in the week ending July 9. That’s good news right? Well, if you read my article earlier this week regarding the slippage in mortgage activity, then you know there’s a fly in the economic ointment through the week inclusive of the July 4th holiday.

In the case of the mortgage application data, the holiday is adjusted for, but (and this is important) the day after is not and it is a business day that is noticeably lethargic. You can see it in your office or on the streets. People are still on vacation after the long weekend, whether it be literally so or just figuratively. They are tired, mentally absent, lethargic slugs, and just not getting much accomplished. Yet, the day after the long weekend is counted like any normal business day, and therein lies the problem.

In the case of this Department of Labor (DOL) data, it is also seasonally adjusted. However, I posit it is not adjusted quite perfectly. It cannot account for the lethargy that keeps the newly unemployed from making it immediately in to apply for their benefits nor the pace at which government workers process the applications that make it through. Have you been to the DMV lately? I realize much of this can be accomplished over the telephone nowadays, but as anyone who has had to go through the process knows, it does also require the individual to visit the unemployment office initially. Very few people absolutely need to run to the office right away, especially since the “benefits” are appropriated to account for the days since last employment, as far as I can remember. So I think a decent number of Americans will even put off money collection over a short holiday.

That said, last week had a counterweight as far as the unemployment insurance report goes. The state of Minnesota shut down, sending a flood of previously publicly employed folks to the office. Minnesota estimates that about 11,500 of their filers last week did so because of the shutdown, and they’re counted in the claims number. Thus, if not for the holiday, this report would have a much different tone to it.

The four-week moving average for claims filings decreased by 3,750, to 423,250, and probably better reflects current reality than the weekly result does. Next week’s result could offer a compensatory increase in filings, a reaction to this week’s lethargy. If we hang on weekly economic results alone, then we’ll swing wildly with them in our investment performance as well. Thus, let’s be careful about how much weight we give to weekly economic data that runs through such holiday periods especially. As always, let’s also remember to look beyond the headline and even the report itself when analyzing economic data, as much can be gleamed through a broader scope.

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Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Beware the Unaccounted for Post Holiday Impact on Mortgage and Other Data

economic insight
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) produced its Weekly Applications Survey this morning, which is a measure of mortgage applications. The MBA reported that in the week ending July 8, 2011 mortgage activity declined 5.1% from the immediately preceding period. But be careful, because there’s a fly in the ointment.

economy bloggerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: BAC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, OTC: FMCC.OB, OTC: FNMA.OB, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: BBT, NYSE: CIT, NYSE: BKU, Nasdaq: UBSI, NYSE: BK, Nasdaq: MBFI, NYSE: AF, NYSE: NYB, Nasdaq: HCBK, Nasdaq: PBCT, Nasdaq: FNFG, Nasdaq: CFFN, Nasdaq: WFSL, Nasdaq: ISBC, Nasdaq: NWBI, Nasdaq: STSA, NYSE: OCN, NYSE: FBC, NYSE: PFS, Nasdaq: COLB, Nasdaq: KRNY, Nasdaq: BRKL, Nasdaq: DCOM, Nasdaq: FFIC, Nasdaq: DNBK, OTC: FCNCA.PK, NYSE: SNV, Nasdaq: UBSI, Nasdaq: HMPR, Nasdaq: WSBC, Nasdaq: CHCO, Nasdaq: SASR, OTC: FCBN.OB, Nasdaq: SCBT, NYSE: WL, Nasdaq: WSFS, Nasdaq: SBSI, Nasdaq: STEL, Nasdaq: UBSH, Nasdaq: EGBN, Nasdaq: FBNC, Nasdaq: ABCB, Nasdaq: TBBK, Nasdaq: FCBC, Nasdaq: CCBG, Nasdaq: FISI, Nasdaq: NKSH, Nasdaq: CZNC, Nasdaq: CHFN, Nasdaq: SBCF, Nasdaq: TIBB, Nasdaq: AMNB, Nasdaq: UCBI, Nasdaq: MBRG, Nasdaq: HBOS, Nasdaq: ZION, Nasdaq: EWBC, NYSE: CYN, NYSE: BOH, Nasdaq: SIVB, Nasdaq: WABC, Nasdaq: CATY, Nasdaq: UMPQ, Nasdaq: GBCI, Nasdaq: PCBC, Nasdaq: PACW, NYSE: WAL, OTC: FBAK.OB, Nasdaq: FIBK, Nasdaq: NARA, Nasdaq: WCBO, Nasdaq: TCBK, Nasdaq: TBNK, Nasdaq: WCBO, Nasdaq: BMRC, Nasdaq: HAFC

Beware the Unaccounted for Post Holiday Impact on Mortgage and Other Data



The MBA’s Market Composite Index was adjusted to compensate for the July 4th holiday. Its adjusted index fell 5.1%, while the unadjusted measure dropped 24% because of the day off. While the holiday itself is accounted for by economic data counters, the lull in business activity that occurs the day after a long holiday is of course not captured and may be partly to blame for the weekly adjusted decline in mortgage activity.

Interest rates were certainly conducive to activity, as contracted rates on 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages improved to 4.55% (from 4.69%) and 3.68% (from 3.79%) during the week. This should have been supportive to refinancing activity, but the holiday and also saturation of the refi market led the MBA’s Refinance Index to instead decline by 6.2% through the period.

Purchase activity, or mortgage applications tied to the purchase of a home, decreased 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 21.9% when not adjusting for the holiday. Again, I think the general malaise that impacts the days immediately following July 4th, which are not adjusted for, drove the softness.

Now the four-week moving averages of these measures should offer better insight, but those are also impacted by the week’s noise. That said, the four-week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index was off 4.7% in this latest reporting. Refinance Activity led the trend, with a decline of 6.3%, while the four-week average for Purchase Activity eased 1.0%.

The take-away here is that because of the difficulty in adequately adjusting for holidays, we would be best served not to base any avoidance of real estate on this week’s mortgage activity data. Also, any economic data that compares sequential week periods should be likewise discounted. Instead we suggest investors look towards the longer term factors, trends and outlook, and assemble a mosaic basis for investment decision making.

Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), CIT (NYSE: CIT), Bank United (NYSE: BKU), First Citizens (OTC: FCNCA.PK), Synovus (NYSE: SNV), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Hampton Roads Bankshares (Nasdaq: HMPR), WesBanco (Nasdaq: WSBC), City Holding (Nasdaq: CHCO), Sandy Spring (Nasdaq: SASR), First Citizens (OTC: FCBN.OB), SCBT Financial (Nasdaq: SCBT), Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), WSFS Financial (Nasdaq: WSFS), Southside Bancshares (Nasdaq: SBSI), Stellar One (Nasdaq: STEL), Union First Market (Nasdaq: UBSH), Eagle Bancorp (Nasdaq: EGBN), First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FBNC), Ameris (Nasdaq: ABCB), The Bancorp (Nasdaq: TBBK), First Community (Nasdaq: FCBC), Capital City (Nasdaq: CCBG), Financial Institutions (Nasdaq: FISI), National Bankshares (Nasdaq: NKSH), Citizens & Northern (Nasdaq: CZNC), Charter Financial (Nasdaq: CHFN), Seacoast Banking (Nasdaq: SBCF), TIB Financial (Nasdaq: TIBB), American National (Nasdaq: AMNB), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBI), Middleburg Financial (Nasdaq: MBRG), Heritage Financial (Nasdaq: HBOS), Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq: ZION), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), City National (NYSE: CYN), Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH), SVB Financial (Nasdaq: SIVB), Westamerica (Nasdaq: WABC), Cathay General (Nasdaq: CATY), Umpqua (Nasdaq: UMPQ), Glacier Bancorp (Nasdaq: GBCI), Pacific Capital (Nasdaq: PCBC), PacWest (Nasdaq: PACW), Western Alliance (NYSE: WAL), First National Alaska (OTC: FBAK.OB), First Interstate Bancsystem (Nasdaq: FIBK), Nara (Nasdaq: NARA), West Coast (Nasdaq: WCBO), TriCo (Nasdaq: TCBK), Territorial (Nasdaq: TBNK), Washington Banking (Nasdaq: WCBO), Bank of Marin (Nasdaq: BMRC), Hanmi (Nasdaq: HAFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), MB Financial (Nasdaq: MBFI), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), First Niagra (Nasdaq: FNFG), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Investor’s Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Northwest Bankshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Provident (NYSE: PFS), Colombia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Kearny (Nasdaq: KRNY), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Danvers (Nasdaq: DNBK).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Thursday, October 21, 2010

Same-Store Sales Are Fading Away

same-store sales are fading away
In the beginning of this year, we said investors should expect same-store sales growth rates to deteriorate as the year progressed, which would seem counter intuitive. However, even while the economy finds some traction, sales are increasingly matching against more normalized comparables and finding a higher bar to surpass.

"Same-store sales" is a term coined to describe retailers' sales from stores that have been opened for a year or more. This tracks organic sales, versus the sales contribution from the addition of new retail locations. It is a useful tool to measure the true health of a franchise, as it captures its popularity and success in garnering store traffic and sales in a competitive marketplace.

(Tickers: NYSE: XRT, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ)

Same-Store Sales Are Fading Away



retail industry analystWe say "more normalized comparables" above because early year comps were marked against perhaps some of the weakest per capita consumer activity in generations. As you'll recall, March of 2009 marked the bottom point for stocks, and inspired serious panic in the hearts of investors and consumers alike. Only a few brave souls were able to hold their noses, cover their eyes, and buy stocks that spring, and they benefited greatly from that courage. This spring's store sales were compared against that historically soft span, which made for a low bar to leap over this year. Thus, when yearly comparisons of same-store sales ran up to a rate of 3% to 4% earlier this year, we warned investors to temper their enthusiasm and wait for later days to get a true reading of consumer spending.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported this week that same-store sales for the week ended October 16 fell 0.7%. That might seem bad enough, but weekly sales can track up or down against the prior week on noisy factors like large storms or broad cold spells. Instead, what is troubling retailers and investors now is the year-over-year comparisons they have seen of late.

In the latest period, year-over-year sales increased 1.7%, the slowest rate of growth seen in five months. The latest measure compares against a 3.6% rate reported as recent as this September 25th. Redbook, another consumer group, also measures year-over-year growth, and while it marked a faster pace of 2.7% in the latest period, its data trend line matches the downward slope of ICSC and reinforces concerns. We have noted a streak of slower sales over the last few weeks in particular.

Some may want to point toward auto sales and last year's Cash for Clunkers program as a reason for variation. However, ICSC excludes vehicle sales from its data. In any event, the Clunkers program concluded last August, and so would not play a role in October comparisons. September might be a different story, since the program likely pulled sales forward.

The current period marks a lull in shopping activity, falling in between the back-to-school stimulant and Black Friday, the start of the holiday season. Still, we are marking data against last year, and so seasonal patterns carry the same impact to each year's particular period, except when small calendar variation exists. That said, we may see higher Black Friday sales than last year, given the depth and length of this recession.

With 17% of the American workforce under-employed and near 10% unemployed, about half of which have been that way for more than 27 weeks, you can expect a greater number of Americans will be bargain hunting this year, if they shop at all. Perhaps there will be a shopping moratorium? Here is a nice idea: Let's give kisses, hugs and good deeds this year, to mark the merry season with the spirit of love that birthed it, versus the spirit of commercialism that has since overtaken it.

If holiday shopping is hotter on Black Friday and the Monday that follows, known as Cyber Monday, investors might be wise to again wait and see before banking on retail gains. Cyber Monday marks the first day back to work after Thanksgiving, and it has produced a promotional blitz for web retailers over the last decade. Apparently, many of you are still digesting your turkey that Monday and feeling a little lazy; thus, there is an extraordinary amount of online shopping and general perusing that occurs that day. There are also a ton of online sales to take advantage of, and so Cyber Monday has become a staple of American culture. More shopping now occurs on Cyber Monday than on Black Friday, or this year will mark the takeover. We hope you will also visit us on that lazy day.

In any event, consumers and investors will likely stick with discounters and retailers with creative deals and marketing schemes this year. Keep your eye out for those, and let us know; maybe we will find a stock to splurge on together. I think we will finally get a real feel for how bad things are this year. In the past, folks shouldered the season with savings and spirit, but Americans are hurting even worse this year and are not sure when they will be on solid footing again. Thus, I suspect this will mark the low point for consumer spending for this cycle on a per capita basis, at least until Iran, nuclear terrorism and general chaos rule the day. Hold up your eggnog and let's toast to: May that day never come.

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This article should prove interesting to investors in NYSE: PIR, NYSE: ETH, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, Nasdaq: AAPL, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: CHS, NYSE: ANN, NYSE: GPS, NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: TJX, NYSE: KSS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: WTSLA, Nasdaq: HOTT, NYSE: AEO, NYSE: ARO, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: SAK, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: TLB, NYSE: LL, Nasdaq: BLDR, NYSE: FO, NYSE: LEG, NYSE: TPX, NYSE: AYI, NYSE: LZB, Nasdaq: SCSS, NYSE: ZZ, NYSE: FBN, NYSE: NTZ, Nasdaq: SHLD, NYSE: DDS, Nasdaq: BONT, Nasdaq: CPWM, Nasdaq: BKRS, Nasdaq: BEBE, NYSE: BKE, Nasdaq: CACH, Nasdaq: CMRG, Nasdaq: CATO, NYSE: CBK, Nasdaq: CTRN, NYSE: PSS, Nasdaq: DEST, Nasdaq: DBRN, NYSE: DSW, Nasdaq: FINL, NYSE: FL, Nasdaq: GYMB, NYSE: GES, NYSE: JCG, NYSE: JNY, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NWY, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: MW, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: PLCE.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Saturday, October 02, 2010

Window Dressing

window dressing
Window dressing is defined as the act partaken by a portfolio manager to strategically manage his funds' holdings to better serve capital acquisition efforts. It's a superficial manipulation of the appearance of a fund's past activity in order to garner new capital, and you need to be aware of it, and maybe even profit from it.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Tickers: NYSE: JNS, Nasdaq: TROW, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: AIG, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: MS, NYSE: C, NYSE: DB, NYSE: CS, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, Nasdaq: TROW, NYSE: MCG, NYSE: MCO, NYSE: TD, NYSE: JEF, NYSE: STT, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: STD, AMEX: GLE, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: GLD, NYSE: XLE, NYSE: XLF, NYSE: BJV, NYSE: SZI, NYSE: BPD, NYSE: IEL, NYSE: PBN, NYSE: CGW, NYSE: LVL, NYSE: FRI, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: SERCX, Nasdaq: SERNX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FEEEX, Nasdaq: FAEAX, Nasdaq: FBEAX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: FECAX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: XRNEX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: UEPSX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX, NYSE: CEE, NYSE: RNE, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, Nasdaq: ANEFX, Nasdaq: CNGAX, Nasdaq: HNEAX, NYSE: PBP, NYSE: RSU, NYSE: RMM, NYSE: REA, NYSE: RFL, NYSE: RHM, NYSE: RTG, NYSE: RSW, NYSE: RMS, NYSE: REC, NYSE: MET, NYSE: CB)

Window Dressing



business writerLast week brought the close of the third quarter for most corporations. However, about half of the institutional mutual funds in existence close their fiscal year and quarter at the end of October. Still, "window dressing" should be factoring into the movement of stocks today. Window dressing is defined as the acts partaken by portfolio managers to strategically manage their funds' holdings to better serve capital acquisition efforts. Indeed, those investment pools with October year-ends will be engaging in such action through the month ahead, and may be already doing so in order to pre-empt their peers and to gain better exit and entry points for specific trades.

What this means is that portfolio managers are, and will be, actively shuffling out of the fiscal year's losers, or stocks that have lost significant value this year, and into winners, or capital gainers. This dresses their prospectuses up in order to attract investors that might act on perception. It's like Andre Agassi's memorable advertising campaign, where he utters the unforgettable phrase, "Image is everything." Image indeed plays an important role in the distribution of capital.

The theory behind window dresses is based on investment company observation that prospective investors will place their money in funds that hold names they know have increased in value in recent times, and not in the funds that hold the shares of recent losers. When one sees a fund holds a stock that has had a dramatic loss of value, one might be less inclined to send a check out to that particular fund manager. The same goes for the year's big winners held in portfolios.

A critical investor might act in a contrary fashion though, because value stocks typically represent the shares of companies that have decreased from a historical mean line valuation. So the stock of an established company, whose business is unthreatened, might represent a value after a bad year. The whole "Dogs of the Dow" investment methodology is based on this thesis. Generally speaking, you buy last year’s losers from the Dow Industrials Index, and do well over the following year. This is a value chasing strategy.

I brushed on the fact that even the October end funds may already be engaging in these actions. There are several reasons for this. Funds tend to liquidate or establish positions in stocks over time, because large funds must take a large position in a stock in order for it to become a significant holding that makes a difference in performance. Big funds, therefore, tend to move stocks if they liquidate positions all at once or too quickly. Even small funds can move microcap stocks. In order to detach themselves from association with last year's losers by fiscal year end then, the fund must begin selling well ahead of October 30th.

For a fund to include a new name as a holding, it need not take a large stake. However, this can make window dressing for winners easily identifiable in a prospectus. All you have to note is the size of the interest held in the particular past year’s winner. However, in all likelihood, an intelligent portfolio manager will seek winners that he views still worth purchasing in order to save himself from a near immediate need to reverse the trade. In efforts to identify window dressing, you might also compare holdings from prior report, but this might not produce information that is free of noise, and it may mis-categorize sincere trading.

Window dressing is something investors should be aware of, and even seek to benefit from. As the large investment pools make changes to their holdings, they create anomaly and profit opportunity for all. Be a beneficiary of window dressing, rather than the bearer of collateral damage.

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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