Fall 2013 Stock Market Forecast

As the Fall Season approaches, U.S. Stock Indices are at an important juncture. Indeed, the S&P 500 seems poised to resume its own fall from August 2nd highs. Our fall 2013 stock market forecast follows.

Stock Market Forecast Fall 2013

A student of the world economy and capital markets, Steven has applied dynamic system modeling principles to the burgeoning field of econometrics as well as to programmatic trading in equities and options. As an active trader, Steven has achieved a success rate of over 92% in positional equity trades.

Fall Just Around the Corner

From the chart below, we can observe a number of key technical points:

• The highest probability Elliot Wave count defines the August 2nd high as a lasting top;
• The first of many moves down began with Wave 1, which bottomed at 1627 on August 28th;
• Based on its internal structure, Wave 2 up appears close to topping;
• The S&P 500 cash index gapped down from 1685 on Aug 15th. That gap is now closed, as is the equivalent price gap in the DJIA;
• Resistance lies between 1692-1700;
• Daily Stochastics indicator (dashed green circle) shows that the S&P 500 is currently at an overbought level of more than 95%
• The initial price target for Wave 3 down is 1610. By definition, Wave 3 down must be larger than Wave 1.

In addition, there have been six confirmed observations of the “Hindenburg Omen” since early August. This indicator is an overall reflection of market health and reliably portends an imminent fall of 10% or more in index prices.

Furthermore, the economic and geopolitical backdrop is not at all supportive of fresh recovery highs in the three major stock indices:

• Situation in Syria may have temporarily abated with a chemical weapons agreement, but even this may put short-term downward pressure on oil prices and the energy-rich S&P index
• The FED will likely begin tapering bond purchases with the September FOMC announcement. Peaceful resolution of the Syrian dispute will further quiet any related move to postpone tapering
• The fiscal debt ceiling looms large as the U.S. is poised to default on its debt by the end of October 2013
• FED Chairman “Helicopter” Ben Bernanke will likely be replaced by a candidate with far less accommodative policies

In short, major indices are likely at or near the top of the retracement from the first major sell-off. While the S&P 500 index could rise as much as 1708 without penetrating the August 2nd high, it is more likely that September and October will bring a precipitous fall in both prices and outside air temperatures.

This article should be of interest to investors in the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG) and the ProShares UltraShort QQQ (NYSE: QID).

DISCLOSURE: The author is currently short the S&P emini contract. He currently plans to cover his short position if prices rise above 1705. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Technical Analysis of the Stock Market

By Steven Ferguson:

Even as the S&P 500 Index has closed at a fresh new recovery high, we wanted to warn of dangerous underlying market conditions in this technical analysis of the stock market:

1. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen in mid-November points to a significant risk of market crash over the following 90 days. This indicator is extremely reliable. Note that the projected timing and magnitude of the ensuing "crash" are variables within that definition;

2. Technical non-confirmation of new index highs has remained in recent days. That is, the S&P 500 has made a new, intraday recovery high (although not a new closing high) while the Dow and NASDAQ remain below their previous high marks. This indicates classic price divergence and underlying market weakness, at least as long as the condition persists. If instead the Dow does make a new recovery high, that would bode well for a protracted rally, perhaps even into the second quarter. Should that occur, we would still remain vigilant and likely caution readers to "sell in May and walk away";

3. Market indices remain bound by a "Rising Bearish Wedge" pattern where the related trend-lines have provided very strong support and resistance. Index prices have already fallen out of the confines of that wedge but have recently retested the lower boundary. The only real question is how many more times will we trade up to that lower boundary before a more substantial drop occurs. This retesting could continue for some time, particularly if the Dow makes a new recovery high in the process;

4. The "official" Elliot Wave count supports a forecast of major downward movement in index prices;

5. Economic and political factors are pressing enough to provide catalyst for a big drop in the near future. See debt ceiling for more! A Fitch or Moody's (NYSE: MCO) ratings reduction in U.S. debt would almost certainly bring on a wave of selling in stocks. Ironically, this could lead to a flight from riskier assets back to bonds, the very instrument that's been downgraded. Makes us wonder about underlying motives!;

6. First quarter corporate earnings, projected growth and related P/E multiples don’t support much more upside in the near-term at least. Banks are particularly suspect as they trade at high multiples with more write-offs to follow (see Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) actions for examples). Good thing we keep relaxing reserve requirements and extending more liquidity …that's always provided adequate means to ensure the banking integrity, right?;

7. Seasonal fund rebalancing is in process though reallocation invariably takes place over a relatively long period to avoid impact on prices. Sell-side algorithms have become very sophisticated and can disguise this for weeks as 401K fund managers exit positions;

8. Bullish sentiment has once again peaked, providing a strong good contrarian indicator;

9. Volume remains very weak;

10. Based on demographics analyses (e.g. Harry Dent), consumer spending and investment patterns are about to change significantly and irreversibly. This observation alone is worth readers' attention, but has a much longer time horizon for lasting impact;

Readers should be mindful of the following technical levels to watch on the S&P cash index:

• 1475 - Significant breakout above could extend rally into second quarter
• 1440 - Significant breakout below would forebode more substantial decline

In any event, new long positions in stocks should be added only with extreme caution.

This technical analysis of the stock market is relevant to broader market interests, including investors in index relative securities including the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (NYSE: QQQ).

Disclosure: Ferguson is short the S&P e-minis

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.