THIS WEEK: October Lurks

Just when we thought we might enjoy a few weeks of post-Fed folly, the media has to go and remind us of all things scary in October. Whether it be government shutdown or Obamacare, or even that old September favorite, Iran and its dark nuclear program, they are trying to spook us again. It’s working though, because people know very well that malevolent ghosts do walk the Congressional halls in D.C. town and that skeletons can be found around the U.N. this time of year.

This Week

Index ETF	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+19.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+17.7%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+21.1%

Stocks may have a tough time ahead, as the media is already focusing investors on the next fear factor at hand, government shutdown. October is a tough month to begin with historically speaking, but this year it brings with it the ominous threat of a Washington stalemate driving government shutdown. And did I mention that October also offers the start of many new healthcare processes that threaten to shake things up? Fines will start to be issued for noncompliant businesses and doctors, at least as far as I hear from my local political punks on the Upper East Side. What’s a political punk look like on the Upper East Side? Just like a man anywhere else, but a fuming one in a cheap suit, speaking passionately on the street corner with a supermarket delivery boy about Obamacare. It’s that guy!

Economic Events

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
MONDAY
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	-0.43 (R)	+0.14 (A)
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash	53.9	54.0
Dennis Lockhart Speech
William Dudley Speech
Richard Fisher Speech
TUESDAY
Case Shiller Home Price Index 20-City	+0.9%	+0.8%
FHFA House Price Index	+0.7%	+0.7%
ICSC Weekly Store Sales	-1.6%
-Year-to-Year Pace	+3.2%
Redbook Store Sales	+3.4%
Consumer Confidence	81.5	80.0
Investor Confidence Index	105.1
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	14.0	10.5
Sandra Pianalto Speech
Esther George Speech
WEDNESDAY
Durable Goods Orders	-7.3%	-0.5%
-Orders Ex-Transportation	-0.6%	+1.0%
New Home Sales	394K	425K
Mortgage Activity	+11.2%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	-4.4 M
-Gasoline Inventory	-1.6 M
THURSDAY
GDP Report	+2.5%	+2.7%
Pending Home Sales	-1.3%	-1.0%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	-29.4 (+2.7)
Weekly Jobless Claims	309K	330K
EIA Natural Gas Report	46 Bcf
Kansas City Manufacturing Index	8.0	9.0
Jeremy Stein Speech
Narayana Kocherlakota Speech
Esther George Speech
FRIDAY
Personal Income & Outlays
-Income	+0.1%	+0.4%
-Spending	+0.1%	+0.3%
-Core PCE Price Index	+0.1%	+0.1%
Consumer Sentiment	76.8	78.0
Farm Prices
Eric Rosengren Speech
William Dudley Speech
Charles Evans Speech

The economic schedule is like most others, colored with updates on all fronts: from the consumer mood, with two such reports due this week along with an investor sentiment measure and personal spending data; housing reports, with several index updates this week on the state of real estate; manufacturing data, with news arriving on durable goods orders, along with a slew of PMI and regional measures; and a mix of some irregulars, including another revision of GDP data. You’ll also note that the Fed is on tour again, with regional bank presidents and governors speaking about the latest Fed policy issued last week.

Corporate Events

Approaching third quarter earnings season, the schedule is light here except for a good number of homebuilders coming to the fore. Otherwise, the market is talking Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) and the rest of the usual suspects.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
Ennis	NYSE: EBF
S&W Seed	Nasdaq: SANW
Park City Group	NYSE: PCYG
Red Hat	NYSE: RHT
TUESDAY
Carnival	NYSE: CCL
Neogen	Nasdaq: NEOG
Lennar	NYSE: LEN
K.B. Home	NYSE: KBH
Ascena Retail Group	Nasdaq: ASNA
Copart	Nasdaq: CPRT
Landec	Nasdaq: LNDC
Misonix	Nasdaq: MSON
AAR Corp.	NYSE: AIR
WEDNESDAY
Autozone	NYSE: AZO
H.B. Fuller	NYSE: FUL
Pro-Dex	Nasdaq: PDEX
SYNNEX	NYSE: SNX
Progress Software	Nasdaq: PRGS
THURSDAY
McCormick & Co.	NYSE: MKC
Cantel Medical	NYSE: CMN
Worthington Industries	NYSE: WOR
Nike	NYSE: NKE
Authentidate	Nasdaq: ADAT
AEHR Test Systems	Nasdaq: AEHR
JTH Holding	Nasdaq: TAX
FRIDAY
AZZ Inc.	NYSE: AZZ
USA Technologies	Nasdaq: USAT
Finish Line	Nasdaq: FINL
Vail Resorts	NYSE: MTN
Cubic Energy	NYSE: QBC

Recent reports you might find interesting:

LinkedIn (Nasdaq: LNKD) Valuation Threatened by Facebook (NYSE: FB) and Twitter
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) Innovation is Key for Shareholder Return
Taperless Fed Favors American Capital (Nasdaq: AGNC)
With Annaly (NYSE: NLY) Settled, Why the Next Leg is Higher

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

TUESDAY’S MARKET: Approach with Trepidation

Approach Fed day with trepidation or bear the con- sequences of Fed foolishness. While it seems clear the Federal Reserve will initiate its tapering of asset purchases with a declaration tomorrow, you never can be quite sure what the Fed may do or say. Given that stocks have already regained their high ground, now is probably not the time to make a bet on the Fed or on a non-event.

Tuesday’s Market

Market ETF	September 17	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.3%	+20%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.2%	+18.9%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.6%	+20.2%

Stocks are continuing higher as the news of Fed tapering looks to be far less traumatic than initially expected by trigger happy traders and the maniacal media. We are now at about the highs on the year, and I see little near-term risk of retracing until October on a fundamental basis – technically speaking, there’s reason for concern as stocks appear extended. Still, the Fed is always capable of a shocker, so now is not the time to be betting on anything.

Economic Events

ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior Period	Expected	Actual
MONDAY
Empire State Manufacturing Index	8.24	9.0	6.29
Industrial Production	0.0%	+0.5%	+0.4%
-Capacity Utilization	77.6%	77.9%	77.8%
-Manufacturing Production	-0.4% (R)	+0.5%	+0.7%
TUESDAY
Consumer Price Index	+0.2%	+0.1%	+0.1%
-Core CPI	+0.2%	+0.2%	+0.1%
ICSC Weekly Store Sales	+1.5%		-1.6%
-Year-to-Year Pace	+2.3%		+3.2%
Redbook Store Sales	+4.6%		+3.4%
Housing Market Index	58 (R)	59	58
Treasury Int’l Capital	-$67.0 B		+$31.1 B

 -R symbolizes “revised”

The economic data on the day was mediocre, and Monday’s reports were mixed, though positive. On Monday, while industrial production improved, it fell short of expectations. Still, the manufacturing sector improved ahead of expectations. The NY Fed’s measure of regional manufacturing continued to show economic expansion, but at a lesser pace than the prior month and less than economists expected. On net, I would call that a positive economic data flow.

Tuesday’s data showed a disappointing pace of same-store sales as reported by the ICSC and Redbook. On a year-to-year basis, the ICSC showed an improved rate of growth while Redbook showed a slower pace. On a weekly basis, the ICSC showed a 1.6% decrease in sales. The calendar very probably played a role in the latest period due to the Jewish holidays.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) offered no pressure to the Federal Reserve, giving it the leeway to hold back from immediate tapering if it so decides. The headline CPI only increased by 0.1%, and excluding food and energy, prices also only edged up by a modest 0.1%.

The Housing Market Index, which reports on the sentiment of homebuilders, held steady at 58, though the prior month figure was revised down to that level. With mortgage rates higher and housing activity clearly staggered, some thought there might be some change in the builder mood. Though, economists, on average, saw the index holding steady at the level before revision. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) is up 1.0% on the news.

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Report showed that foreign demand for long-term US securities grew in July. If you read my report on how war could benefit the real estate market, you understand why I think that trend could continue in the months ahead.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	10:42 AM	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	-0.02%	NIKKEI 225	-0.7%
German DAX	-0.1%	Hang Seng	-0.3%
CAC 40	-0.0%	S&P/ASX 200	+0.1%
FTSE 100	-0.3%	Korean KOSPI	-0.4%
Bloomberg GCC 200 Mideast	-0.3%	BSE India SENSEX	+0.3%

International markets moved lower Tuesday as global investors cautiously anticipate the Wednesday Fed decision in the U.S. The threatened beginning of tapering has global traders back on their heels.

Commodity Markets (11:24 AM)

WTI Crude	-0.9%
Brent Crude	-1.7%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.0%
RBOB Gasoline	-1.6%
Gold Spot	-0.2%
Silver Spot	-0.2%
COMEX Copper	-0.0%
CBOT Corn	-0.3%
CBOT Wheat	+0.1%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.9%
ICE Cocoa	-1.2%
ICE Sugar	-0.6%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-2.9%
CME Lumber	+1.1%
CME Live Cattle	-0.5%

Energy continues to unravel post the solution for Syria. Tapering will now work to slow economically sensitive petroleum, but for only as long as data does not reinforce economic confidence.

Corporate Events

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) announced a new share buyback and dividend, lifting the shares 0.7% today. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is holding ground at $450 and looks solid here to me. Safeway (NYSE: SWY) is up 9% today on implementation of a poison pill after noting a shareholder taking a significant interest.

REPORTING EARNINGS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
NAPCO Security Technologies	Nasdaq: NSSC
Oclaro	Nasdaq: OCLR
WPCS International	Nasdaq: WPCS
Cvent Inc.	NYSE: CVT
TUESDAY
Coty	Nasdaq: COTY
FactSet Research Systems	NYSE: FDS
ALCO Stores	Nasdaq: ALCS
Adobe Systems	Nasdaq: ADBE
Digital Cinema Destinations	Nasdaq: DCIN

MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
BIGGEST GAINERS	% Gain
Kythera Biopharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: KYTH)	+27%
Repros Therapeutics (Nasdaq: RPRX)	+22%
Medgenics (Nasdaq: MDGN.WT)	+21%
Internet Gold Golden Lines (Nasdaq: IGLD)	+18%
Agenus (Nasdaq: AGEN)	+23%
Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO)	+17%
Air Industries (Nasdaq: AIRI)	+15%
VelocityShares 3X Inverse Brent (Nasdaq: DOIL)	+13%
Regado BioSciences (Nasdaq: RGDO)	+12%
B Communications (Nasdaq: BCOM)	+14%
BIGGEST LOSERS	% Drop
Cognex (Nasdaq: CGNX)	-50%
Alliance Fiber Optic Products (Nasdaq: AFOP)	-49%
Gold Resource (Nasdaq: GORO)	-18%
CVENT (NYSE: CVT)	-15%
Outerwall (Nasdaq: OUTR)	-12%
Crossroads Systems (Nasdaq: CRDS)	-12%
Fuwei Films (Nasdaq: FFHL)	-10%
Tiger Media (NYSE: IDI)	-11%
Omeros (Nasdaq: OMER)	-10%
China Xiniya Fashion (NYSE: XNY)	-6%

Other Reports for Your Review:
Buy Verizon: Wireless Deal Opens Bundling & Market Share Opportunity

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.