Week Ahead – Jobs & Manufacturing Data Could Shake Things Up

The week ahead offers a slew of important manufacturing and jobs data capable of shaking things up for stocks. The first quarter produced stellar stock gains, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) gaining 10.5%, 11.9% and 6.1%, respectively, after adjustment for dividends (total return). The second quarter starts this week, but after the S&P 500 marked a historical high on the last day of Q1, it may have some reconciling to do against softening economic data moving forward.

Monday

Some markets, including in Germany and Italy, will not even open for Easter Monday. In the U.S., the first week of the month and the second quarter kicks off with a heavy economic data load. Three major data points find the morning market, with the PMI Manufacturing Report, ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending data all due.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index leads off with its 8:58 AM ET reporting. Last month, the data for February showed the index at 54.3 at its final reading. It slipped significantly through the month though, dropping from its initial “Flash” reading of 55.2. In January, the index closed out at 55.8. All indications are that manufacturing activity tailed off. There’s no consensus estimate for March, but these indications are not good.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index will follow at 10:00 AM ET. This widely followed manufacturing measure is seen by economists slipping slightly in March to 54.0, down from 54.2 in February. The range of economists’ views extends from 51.6 to 55.0, so it’s leaning to the downside. If we get two poor manufacturing data points, stocks could slip Monday. Manufacturing has been a linchpin of this economy, and if it is pulled out from under us, it will join recently softer housing data in weakening support for stocks.

Construction Spending data is due at 10:00 as well. After a 2.1% spending dip in January, economists expect February spending rose 1.1%. Between the three of these data points, the market should have filled its pallet for one day.

The corporate wire has earnings from Cal-Maine Foods (Nasdaq: CALM), Dago New Energy (NYSE: DQ), MFC Industrial (NYSE: MIL), Oxford Resource Partners (NYSE: OXF), American Shared Hospital Services (NYSE: AMS) and Derma Sciences (Nasdaq: DSCI).

Tuesday

More manufacturing and other goods producer information reaches the wire Tuesday, with Factory Orders being reported for the month of February. It’s just one week since the Durable Goods Report showed pretty soft data excluding transportation orders. For Factory Orders, economists see a 2.9% increase in this figure, compared to last month’s 2.0% decline.

Monthly motor vehicle sales will be reported on Tuesday instead of Monday, due to the holiday. The news from Ford (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), Chrysler (owned mostly by Fiat (OTC: FIATY)), and Toyota (NYSE: TM) fits nicely with the other manufacturing reports set for release through the first two days of the week. In aggregate, domestic motor vehicle sales are expected to have run at an annual pace of 12.1 million in March, the same as in February. Total vehicle sales by American producers are expected to be running at a pace of 15.4 million now, the same as the month before.

Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker and the Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans are scheduled to speak on monetary policy Tuesday. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim will address global poverty. President Obama is meeting with the Prime Minister of Singapore at the White House.

Tuesday also offers the regular retail same-store sales data. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed week-to-week sales decreased 1.7%. On a year-to-year basis, sales were marked up 1.0%. Each measure represented deterioration against the prior week’s rates, but were likely impacted by Easter.

In corporate news, look for investor and analyst days at EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) and Global Brass & Copper (Nasdaq: BRSS). Expect earnings from McCormick (NYSE: MKC), Global Payments (NYSE: GPN), Blonder Tongue Laboratories (NYSE: BDR), BOS Better Online Solutions (Nasdaq: BOSC) and ZaZa Energy (Nasdaq: ZAZA).

Wednesday

The Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hold monetary policy meetings Wednesday, but the ECB is inactive. San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economy and monetary policy in the U.S. at a Town Hall meeting in Los Angeles.

ADP’s Private Employment Report is set for release in the premarket Wednesday. This first of the week’s monthly employment report parade is expected to show private nonfarm payrolls increased by 205K in March. That would mark deterioration against February’s 246K increase. Remember that ADP’s data point is but an estimate itself of the federal government’s report scheduled for release two days later.

At 10:00 AM ET, look for ISM’s report on the service sector. ISM’s Nonmanufacturing Index is expected to hold steady in March at the 56.0 mark it set in February. Anything above 50 marks economic expansion, so no change is still good news.

We will also get the latest mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association in the premarket Wednesday. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 22 showed mortgage applications increased 7.7%. Interest rates fell last week, spurring both purchase and refinance activity.

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending March 22 showed crude oil inventory increased by 3.3 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline decreased by 1.6 million barrels but remained in the middle of the average range.

In corporate news, Pandora Media (NYSE: P) is having a fireside chat at the Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) Tech Transformation Summit. The day’s EPS schedule highlights reports from ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), Harry Winston Diamond (NYSE: DDC) and TEAM Inc. (Nasdaq: TISI).

Thursday

Two more employment data points find the wire Thursday. First catch the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job-Cuts Report. There was a bit of a pickup in announced corporate layoffs in February, to 55,356. The March report has no economists’ forecast to peg to. This data is often impacted by large layoff announcements at major companies. The financial sector dominated February’s layoffs, with J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) announcing large cuts. Still, industrial firms, especially defense companies, may take the baton soon. United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) announced 3,000 layoffs in March.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 23 showed weekly claims increased by 16K to 357K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims increased 2,250 to 343K. If another increase follows, investor concern will heighten.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Sabew Spring Conference.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index deteriorated for the second straight week last week. The weekly measure of the consumer mood fell by 0.5, to a mark of -34.4. In relative news, last week offered the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which fell significantly. In a report published elsewhere, we said it served as a recession signal.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 22 showed working gas in storage fell by 95 Bcf. Stocks were 642 Bcf less than last year at this time, but still 61 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

The corporate wire has Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq: URBN) presenting at the Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Retail & Restaurant Conference. Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI) has its April investor meeting. The EPS slate highlights presentations by Franklin Covey (NYSE: FC), Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX), International Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA), WD-40 (Nasdaq: WDFC) and others.

Friday

The Employment Situation Report is due at 8:30 AM ET. The report for March is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 193K, less than February’s 236K. Private nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by just 200K this month, versus the 246K increase last month. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 7.7% according to economists, but last month, we saw it closer to 11.8%.

Look for the International Trade data at 8:30 AM as well. Economists expect February’s trade gap widened to $44.8 billion from $44.4 billion in January. Exports declined last month versus an increase in import demand.

The Federal Reserve reports on Consumer Credit at 3:00 PM ET. Economists see February’s consumer credit expanding by $15 billion, against January’s expansion of $16.2 billion.

The corporate wire has the BioCentury Publications Future Leaders in Biotech Industry Conference, with highlighted presentations from Cytokinetics (Nasdaq: CYTK), Cytori Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CYTX) and Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SCMP).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Banks are Open on Good Friday, Stock Market is Closed

U.S. equity markets are closed for Good Friday, but banks are open in the United States. Internationally, securities markets are also closed in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, the U.K., across South America and many other places for this very important day. The new Pope, Francis, should be awaited with great joy and love as he presides over services for the first time as Pope of the Catholic Church. Orthodox Christians do not mark Good Friday until May 3rd this year.

There are two economic reports on the schedule.

Personal Income & Outlays data are due for release at 8:30 AM. Economists are looking for personal spending to increase by 0.6% in February, compared to 0.2% growth in January. Personal income is seen higher by 0.9% in February, after falling 3.6% in January. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index is expected to show 0.2% increase month-to-month, versus the prior month’s 0.1% increase.

The Reuters / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is up for 9:55 AM release. Economists expect improvement for March, with the index expected to rise to 72.5, from 71.8 in February.

The corporate wire has EPS from Birner Dental Management Services (Nasdaq: BDMS), China Armco Metals (Nasdaq: CNAM), Tengasco (NYSE: TGC) and USA Technologies (Nasdaq: USAT). Our founder published a long report on Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) and a short report on Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) yesterday. Today Mr. Kaminis posed the question, should we Sell the SPY on its High (NYSE: SPY)?

We wish you a happy Easter and Passover dear friends from your friends at Wall Street Greek.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

THURSDAY'S TRADE - A Tug of War

By Kelly Barth:

With equity markets closed in the U.S. on Friday, a great deal of economic data is being bunched into Thursday. Three economic data points reach the wire in just the premarket. First of all, the GDP Report for the fourth quarter of 2012 is scheduled for revision. Economists are looking for GDP growth to be adjusted higher to 0.6%, up from 0.1% when last adjusted (from negative 0.1%). Cypriot banks reopened with some restrictions to limit a run on the banks from happening. The U.S. bond market closes early Thursday at 2:00 PM ET. Several markets around the world are closed for Holy Thursday. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO) is unchanged in the premarket as a tug of war is taking place on the Street. Also catch our founder's reports on Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) and Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) linked to below here.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 16 showed weekly claims increased by 2,000, to 336K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims improved by 7,500 last week, on its way down to 339,750.

At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected to show Chicago area business expanded at a slower rate. The index is seen dropping to 56.1 in March, down from 56.8 in February. Measures above 50.0 mark economic expansion.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index fell last week by 2.3 points, to -33.9. The weekly measure of the consumer mood should be overshadowed this week by the monthly reports.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 15 showed working gas in storage declined by 62 Bcf. Stocks were 502 Bcf less than last year at this time, but still 162 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

The Kansas City Fed issues its manufacturing index Thursday. Economists expect manufacturing improved in the middle of the nation, but remained in contraction. The index is expected to improve to negative 3.0 from negative 10 last month. Zero marks breakeven.

There will be a bankruptcy hearing today for Birmingham, Alabama.

The corporate wire has investor or analyst meetings for eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI). Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX) is having a conference call to discuss a new product. Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) is having an investor relations BIM update webinar. The CIBC Retail & Consumer Conference has a presentation by Target (NYSE: TGT). The EPS schedule highlights news from Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY). Last night, our founder wrote that Blackberry Reminds Me of Palm Just Before the End. He also noted that Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) was half-way to his downside target. Also look for reports from Accenture (NYSE: ACN), GameStop (NYSE: GME), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NYSE: NPD), Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC), AEHR Test Systems (Nasdaq: AEHR), Century Casinos (Nasdaq: CNTY), dELiA’s (Nasdaq: DLIA), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Fred’s (Nasdaq: FRED), Gentium (Nasdaq: GENT), Guanwei Recycling (Nasdaq: GPRC), InfuSystem (Nasdaq: INFU), Kips Bay Medical (Nasdaq: KIPS), Netlist (Nasdaq: NLST), NTN Buzztime (NYSE: NTN), PCTEL (Nasdaq: PCTI), PLUG Power (Nasdaq: PLUG), Quantum Fuel Systems (Nasdaq: QTWW), REX American Resources (NYSE: REX), Signet Jewelers (NYSE: SIG), Southcross Energy Partners (NYSE: SXE), Tranzyme (Nasdaq: TZYM), Universal Power Group (NYSE: UPG), UTi Worldwide (Nasdaq: UTIW), Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Wednesday – Worries About Europe Weigh

By Ed Gaynor:

The U.S. market is finally taking Europe’s ineptness seriously. The iShares Core S&P 500 (NYSE: IVV) is lower by 0.7% to start the day.

Even more housing data finds the wire on Wednesday, leading the day. In the premarket, we’ll get the latest mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 15 showed mortgage applications decreased by 7.1%. Mortgage rates generally increased in the period.

Pending Home Sales data is due at 10:00 AM EDT Wednesday. Economists are looking for a 0.7% decrease in the February reading, matching against the 4.5% increase in activity seen in January. Investors will want to eye the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) for perspective of how the market is receiving the news.

A slew of Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled to address the public Wednesday. They are all set to speak around noon, with addresses from Chicago’s Charles Evans, Boston’s Eric Rosengren, Cleveland’s Sandra Pianalto and Minneapolis’ Narayana Kocherlakota.

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending March 15 showed crude oil inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels, but remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline decreased by 1.5 million barrels and remained in the middle of the average range.

There’s a BRICs summit in South Africa today. Indian markets are closed today.

In corporate news, Pinnacle Foods is expected to make a 29 million share initial public offering at a price of $18 to $20 per share. Pinnacle is the maker of the Birds Eye frozen vegetables brand. The deal is backed by Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX). AMR Corporation's (OTC: AAMRQ.PK) subsidiary American Airlines seeks bankruptcy court approval for its proposed merger with U.S. Airways Group (NYSE: LCC).

Look for analyst and investor meetings at Zillow (NYSE: Z), AGL Resources (NYSE: GAS) and Aruba Networks (Nasdaq: ARUN). The Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York Auto Summit brings presenters Ford (NYSE: F), Hertz (NYSE: HTZ), Delphi Automotive (Nasdaq: DLPH), Dana Holding (NYSE: DAN) and Tenneco (NYSE: TEN). Look for EPS reports from PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Adcare Health Systems (NYSE: ADK), Exceed (NYSE: EDS), ASA Gold & Precious Metals (NYSE: ASA), Asia Entertainment & Resources (Nasdaq: AERL), Astea Int’l (Nasdaq: ATEA), Books-a-Million (Nasdaq: BAMM), China Automotive (Nasdaq: CAAS), China Marine Food (Nasdaq: CMFO), Chinaedu (Nasdaq: CEDU), Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CYCC), Exa (NYSE: EXA), ExOne (Nasdaq: XONE), Five Below (Nasdaq: FIVE), H.B. Fuller (NYSE: FUL), Intellicheck Mobilisa (NYSE: IDN), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), LGL Group (NYSE: LGL), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Newtek Business Services (Nasdaq: NEWT), P&F Industries (Nasdaq: PFIN), PFSweb (Nasdaq: PFSW), Saratoga Resources (Nasdaq: SARA), Steelcase (NYSE: SCS), SYNNEX (NYSE: SNX), Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI), UniFirst (NYSE: UNF), U.S. Geothermal (NYSE: HTM), Verastem (Nasdaq: VSTM), Verenium (Nasdaq: VRNM), Verint Systems (Nasdaq: VRNT) and others.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Unholy Trading Week in Store on Cyprus, GDP & More

The holiday shortened trading week still has a full week’s worth of data to digest, with some reports even scheduled for Friday. The most important news of the week might even come on Friday, when personal spending and inflation get a read. However, the week started off on a sour note, when Cyprus agreed to a drastic set of measures set forth by its European brothers. The tax being imposed on depositors as a result of the agreement place into question all deposits in the euro zone and raise specter globally. GDP gets a revision Thursday, after being revised once up to 0.1% growth from a 0.1% contraction at initial report. It makes for an interesting look Thursday morning. The week seems shaky, though the S&P 500 was hoping for a breakout into record territory to begin with. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) each reversed intraday Monday as a result of market introspection around the real data.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Unholy Week

Monday

Cyprus accepted the dramatic demands of its European masters in order to stay in the union, but at the cost of its international banking credibility and its citizen depositors. It’s a big day for more than just Cyprus though, as it sets a precedent that could prove a grave mistake for Europe with far reaching repercussions. This deal that taxes depositors indiscriminately raises the likelihood of future runs on banks globally and certainly in Europe. In other European news, a summit between the EU and Japan takes place Monday.

Is Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke really addressing the London School of Economics on the lessons of the financial crisis Monday at midday, or is he secretly headed over to the What’s Brewing Seminar, which is coincidentally also scheduled to take place in London Monday. Heineken will be presenting there. New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley is giving a speech to the Economic Club of New York at midday.

We have two reports on the economic slate Tuesday. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, a gauge of overall business activity, reaches the wire at 8:30 AM ET. Last month’s report covering January showed the index deteriorated to negative 0.32 from positive 0.25 in December. The report for February will offer interesting insight clear of Washington D.C. political noise.

At 10:00 AM ET, look for the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s Manufacturing Survey for the month of March. The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, as it is properly called, is expected to improve slightly to a mark of 3.4, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists. Last month, the index measured 2.2.

A bankruptcy court is examining the Chapter 9 plea of the City of Stockton, California, with its bankruptcy being contested by municipal bondholders who are claiming that it is being used to force bigger cuts from them than from city workers and pensioners.

The corporate wire has an investor day at ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB). Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is having a technology briefing on its OfficeJet Pro X. Look for earnings news from Dollar General (NYSE: DG), Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL), Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN), JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO), ZaZa Energy (Nasdaq: ZAZA) and more. (See Monday’s Preview for the complete list)

Tuesday

Several economic reports are set for Tuesday’s schedule. The important but volatile Durable Goods Orders Report is scheduled for 8:30 AM release. There’s something interesting I want you to realize about durable goods order trends. While the month-to-month comparisons seem to show improvement most months, the long-term chart comparing yearly results show a slowing of improvement.

Economists expect durable goods orders rose 3.5% in February, based on Bloomberg’s survey. That compares against the decrease in orders in January, when they fell 5.2%. Excluding transportation goods, which carry high ticket prices and can skew the message, orders are expected to edge up just 0.7%, versus last month’s 1.9% increase.

The first of the week’s real estate data reaches the wire on Tuesday when Case Shiller reports on its Home Price Index. The 9:00 AM report covers the month of January. Economists expect the group’s 20-city seasonally adjusted index to show price increase of 1.0%, against December’s increase of 0.9%. Such news continues to support the real estate sector, but even the slightest sign of weakness would damage housing stocks, which some say are priced for perfection. New Home Sales data for February follows at 10:00 AM ET. Economists are expecting a slip in the annual pace of new home sales to 425K, against January’s pace of 437K.

The Conference Board reports on Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET. Confidence has been improving since Washington D.C. got out of the way of the economy earlier this year. The data for February showed the Confidence Index rose sharply to 69.6, up more than 10 points from the prior month. According to Barron’s, the consensus expects a lower reading of 67.5 for March. Tuesday also offers the regular retail same-store sales data. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed week-to-week sales increased 1.4%. On a year-to-year basis, sales were marked up 2.3%. Each measure represented improvement against the prior week. As we near Easter, sales should be markedly higher.

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank reports on regional manufacturing activity at 10:00 AM. Economists expect the bank’s index to show a slight drop to a reading of 5.5 for March, which would be down from 6.0 in February.

State Street (NYSE: STT) reports on Investor Confidence at 10:00 AM. Last month’s report showed that global investor confidence (or risk taking in institutional portfolios) increased due to a greater appetite in North America. The Global Index measured 94.8, and the North American Index reached 86.3.

Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher is set to speak about U.S. monetary policy.

There’s a nuclear summit in Seoul, South Korea. It would make perfect sense for North Korea to do something provocative.

The U.S. Supreme Court will start talking about same-sex marriage.

In corporate news, look for analyst or investor meetings at United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and General Cable (NYSE: BGC). A Delaware bankruptcy court considers whether to approve the $10.5 million sale of Pension Worldwide’s brokerage assets. The earnings slate highlights reports from SAIC (NYSE: SAI), Alexza Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ALXA), Bacterin Int’l (Nasdaq: BONE), Landec (Nasdaq: LNDC) and Luna Innovations (Nasdaq: LUNA).

Wednesday

Even more housing data finds the wire on Wednesday, leading the day. In the pre-market, we’ll get the latest mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 15 showed mortgage applications decreased by 7.1%. Mortgage rates generally increased in the period.

Pending Home Sales data is due at 10:00 AM EDT Wednesday. Economists are looking for a 0.7% decrease in the February reading, matching against the 4.5% increase in activity seen in January. Investors will want to eye the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) for perspective of how the market is receiving the news.

A slew of Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled to address the public Wednesday. They are all set to speak around noon, with addresses from Chicago’s Charles Evans, Boston’s Eric Rosengren, Cleveland’s Sandra Pianalto and Minneapolis’ Narayana Kocherlakota.

Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending March 15 showed crude oil inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels, but remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline decreased by 1.5 million barrels and remained in the middle of the average range.

There’s a BRICs summit in South Africa today. Indian markets are closed today.

In corporate news, Pinnacle Foods is expected to make a 29 million share initial public offering at a price of $18 to $20 per share. Pinnacle is the maker of the Birds Eye frozen vegetables brand. The deal is backed by Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX). AMR Corporation's (OTC: AAMRQ.PK) subsidiary American Airlines seeks bankruptcy court approval for its proposed merger with U.S. Airways Group (NYSE: LCC).

Look for analyst and investor meetings at Zillow (NYSE: Z), AGL Resources (NYSE: GAS) and Aruba Networks (Nasdaq: ARUN). The Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York Auto Summit brings presenters Delphi Automotive (Nasdaq: DLPH), Dana Holding (NYSE: DAN) and Tenneco (NYSE: TEN). Look for EPS reports from PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Adcare Health Systems (NYSE: ADK), Exceed (NYSE: EDS) and others.

Thursday

With equity markets closed in the U.S. on Friday, a great deal of economic data is being bunched into Thursday. Three economic data points reach the wire in just the premarket. First of all, the GDP Report for the fourth quarter of 2012 is scheduled for revision. Economists are looking for GDP growth to be adjusted higher to 0.6%, up from 0.1% when last adjusted (from negative 0.1%).

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 16 showed weekly claims increased by 2,000, to 336K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims improved by 7,500 last week, on its way down to 339,750.

At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected to show Chicago area business expanded at a slower rate. The index is seen dropping to 56.1 in March, down from 56.8 in February. Measures above 50.0 mark economic expansion.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index fell last week by 2.3 points, to -33.9. The weekly measure of the consumer mood should be overshadowed this week by the monthly reports.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 15 showed working gas in storage declined by 62 Bcf. Stocks were 502 Bcf less than last year at this time, but still 162 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

The Kansas City Fed issues its manufacturing index Thursday. Economists expect manufacturing improved in the middle of the nation, but remained in contraction. The index is expected to improve to negative 3.0 from negative 10 last month. Zero marks breakeven.

There will be a bankruptcy hearing today for Birmingham, Alabama.

The U.S. bond market closes early Thursday at 2:00 PM ET. Several markets around the world are closed for Holy Thursday.

The corporate wire has investor or analyst meetings for eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI). The CIBC Retail & Consumer Conference has a presentation by Target (NYSE: TGT). The EPS schedule highlights news from Accenture (NYSE: ACN), GameStop (NYSE: GME), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NYSE: NPD), Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) and more.

Friday

U.S. equity markets are closed for Good Friday, but banks are open in the U.S. Markets are also closed in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore and the U.K. among others. The new Pope should be awaited with great joy and love to preside over services for the first time. Orthodox Christians do not mark Good Friday until May 3rd this year.

There are two economic reports on the schedule friends, so stay tuned.

Personal Income & Outlays data are due for release at 8:30 AM. Economists are looking for personal spending to increase by 0.6% in February, compared to 0.2% growth in January. Personal income is seen higher by 0.9% in February, after falling 3.6% in January. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index is expected to show 0.2% increase month-to-month, versus the prior month’s 0.1% increase.

The Reuters / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is up for 9:55 AM release. Economists expect improvement for March, with the index expected to rise to 72.5, from 71.8 in February.

The corporate wire has EPS from Birner Dental Management Services (Nasdaq: BDMS).

We wish you a happy Easter and Passover dear friends from your friends at Wall Street Greek.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

FRIDAY - No News Means a Focus on Cyprus

In the premarket, futures trading in the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQ) are indicating a higher open.

There are no economic reports scheduled for Friday, and as such, the market has its focus. It is squarely on Cyprus. The Russians reportedly rebuked the Cypriot outreach to it, probably because the Cypriots would not give up the EU in exchange, or enough of whatever else was being offered for the greedy Russians. Now Cyprus supposedly has until Monday to stabilize its banks, which under the threat of the gun cocked by the Europeans and the IMF means either taxing its citizens’ bank deposits and facing their fury or accepting bankruptcy and a return to the Cypriot pound outside of Europe. Cyprus is rightly afraid because if it stands beyond Europe’s reach, it would have to deal with the Turks alone (not really though). There are so many issues at play that I will concentrate a specific article on the topic for the weekend at the blog.

In other news, Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Raskin address U.S. labor market conditions in a speech Friday. Thursday produced a Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase of 2,000. The four-week moving average was 339,750, which is lower by 7,500.

On the corporate news wire, look for Headwaters (NYSE: HW) to meet with analysts. Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is giving a customer company tour in Boston. Thomson Reuters (TRI.TO) is having its investor day in Toronto. Reporting earnings are Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), Intelligent Systems (NYSE: INS), GenVec (Nasdaq: GNVC), Michael Foods (Nasdaq: MIKL) and NTS Inc. (NYSE: NTS). Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) said it would fire 750 workers after paring distribution centers. J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) said its turnaround could take a bit longer than initially expected. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) hit 100% renewable energy usage at its data centers run by solar arrays.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Thursday – The Day After the Fed’s Big Bluff

The day after the Fed’s big bluff, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are indicating a lower open. In case you missed it, yesterday, the Federal Reserve produced a magical economic forecast that seemed to deceive those with eyes to see and a memory of the Fed’s discussion of a 1.5% economic hit to GDP growth in 2013 on fiscal measures. Voila, 1.5% became 0.2% when the forecasts found the wire. I’m doing my best to make sure there is some reconciliation regarding where the difference was made up in just one month’s time, because otherwise, I can do nothing but assume the Fed’s forecasts are relatively baseless.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due for release at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. Last week’s data covering the period ending March 9 showed claims fell by 10K to a level of 332K. The four-week moving average declined to a historically significant point last week, exciting the market a bit. On the news last week, I asked the question whether 7.1 million Americans mattered or not, because they remain unaccounted for in labor statistics.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index (Flash) is due around 9:00 AM EDT Thursday. The index drifted lower at the close of February to a reading of 54.3. Economists see the measure up to 55.0 this time around.

At 9:00 AM, catch the FHFA House Price Index. This reading for January is seen showing a 0.7% increase, versus last month’s noted 0.6% gain.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index is up for its weekly release at 9:45 AM. Last week’s data showed a 0.8 point increase in confidence to -31.6. It was the highest level since last April, and the sixth straight week of improvement.

Existing Home Sales will be reported for February at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see sales rising to an annual pace of 5.01 million, up from 4.92 million in January. The housing market is critical to the market’s confidence, so each of this week’s data points will be scrutinized by us and should be noted by you.

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be reported at 10:00 AM for the month of February. The LEI is seen by economists increasing by 0.4% in February, versus the 0.2% gain in January.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank issues its survey on manufacturing conditions at 10:00 AM. The Philly Fed’s General Business Activity Index is seen improving to a still negative -1.5 mark in March, better than its -12.5 level the month before.

The EIA presents its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 8 showed natural gas stores decreased by 145 Bcf, to a level 440 Bcf below last year and 198 Bcf above the five-year average.

The new Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Vladimir Putin in Moscow, an interesting early travel plan that should be noted by metals investors and commodity interests.

In corporate news, an FDA advisory panel reviews a drug application for opioid dependence by Titan Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: TTNP). Reader’s Digest Association is asking for approval from a bankruptcy court for a $105 million loan for reorganization purposes. Look for analyst and investor meetings at AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), Palo Alto Networks (Nasdaq: PANW) and Susser Petroleum (Nasdaq: SUSP). Honeywell (NYSE: HON) and 3M (NYSE: MMM) present at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industrials & EU Autos Conference. Fluor (NYSE: FLR) presents at the BB&T Commercial & Industrial Conference. PetSmart (Nasdaq: PETM) presents at the ISI Retail Summit. Unum (NYSE: UNM) presents at the J.P. Morgan Insurance Conference. The earnings schedule includes news from Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST), Nike (NYSE: NKE), China Zenix Auto (NYSE: ZX), IHS (NYSE: IHS), Micron Technology (NYSE: MU), Adecoagro (Nasdaq: AGRO), Alimera Sciences (Nasdaq: ALIM), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), CTI Industries (Nasdaq: CTIB), Dialogic (Nasdaq: DLGC), Highpower Int’l (NYSE: HPJ), K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH), Magal Security Systems (Nasdaq: MAGS), Met-Pro (NYSE: MPR), Movado (NYSE: MOV), New York & Company (NYSE: NWY), Perry Ellis Int’l (Nasdaq: PERY), Response Genetics (Nasdaq: RGDX), rue21 (NYSE: RUE), Scholastic (Nasdaq: SCHL), SuperMedia (Nasdaq: SPMD), The Marcus Corp. (NYSE: MCS), TIBCO Software (Nasdaq: TIBX), Vertex (Nasdaq: VTNR), Vringo (Nasdaq: VRNG), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSL) and Worthington Industries (NYSE: WOR).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Wednesday on Wall Street

We issued a warning yesterday regarding our expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut its economic forecasts significantly for 2013. We remain uncertain about the market’s awareness about this event, as most market chatter is about the Fed remaining supportive of stocks or whether it might see too much good in the economy and begin to speak about pulling back its supports. Some have expressed an opinion that bad news is good news, but I’m not sure that will prove true. I believe an underlying faith in an improving economy has been a key support for the market’s rally this year. Thus, it begs to question whether the pulling of that rug out from underneath of us matters or not. I believe it does, however, if economic growth of over 2% is still forecast by the Fed for the year and if it continues to express faith in recovery, it may be enough for the market. Because of the run of stocks to this point, I would hedge risk and sell those high flying stocks with valuations that are difficult to justify today, and look toward value. That is why I recently downgraded Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), and expressed concern about the near-term action for Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). However, I saw value in Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO). I do like gold and silver and their relative securities here like the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX) and the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSE: AGQ). Stay tuned for more…

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Wednesday will be as big as a day gets for the market, with some very key information emanating from the Federal Reserve. First, at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will declare its current monetary policy plans. Expectations are for no change to rates and asset purchases. Also at 2:00 PM, we’ll get the latest updated Fed forecast data. The quarterly report offers insight into the Fed’s expectations for GDP, employment and inflation. We may get a downgrade to growth on the sequester cuts. Then at 2:30 PM comes the Chairman’s press conference, within which he may continue to speak positively about economic recovery. However, he is not expected to announce any time schedule for monetary policy change. He may offer some insight into the metrics that matter most to the Fed, and those are likely to remain employment and inflation relative. This information will dictate trade not only for Wednesday, but for the next few weeks. You won’t like what takes the baton after that… earnings.

We’ll get the regular mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday morning. Last week’s report showed a decrease in activity on higher mortgage rates, leading us to ask if higher interest rates might stall the housing recovery.

The weekly Petroleum Status Report is up for release at 10:30 AM EDT. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 8 showed crude oil inventories increased 2.6 million barrels to a level still well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels to the middle of the average range for this time of year.

President Barack Obama visits Israel for the first time in his entire presidency. I expect this will raise speculation about Iran and spook oil prices and major integrated oils like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). In other international news, U.K. Finance Minister George Osborne will deliver his 2013 budget.

In corporate news, an FDA advisory committee examines a circulatory device of Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT). Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), Agilent (NYSE: A), Ciena (Nasdaq: CIEN), Terex (NYSE: TEX), Flowers Foods (NYSE: FLO), Flowserve (NYSE: FLS), JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) and Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) have shareholder or analyst meetings scheduled. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is presenting at the ISI Retail Summit and Visa (NYSE: V) is presenting at the Barclays Emerging Payments Conference. The earnings schedule highlights reports from Concord Medical Services (NYSE: CCM), FedEx (NYSE: FDX), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) and Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL). Trimble Navigation (Nasdaq: TRMB) will split its shares 2-for-1. Look for more earnings from Acquity Group (NYSE: AQ), Actuant (NYSE: ATU), CLARCOR (NYSE: CLC), Cover-All Technologies (Nasdaq: COVR), FNB United (Nasdaq: FNBN), Guess (NYSE: GES), Herman Miller (Nasdaq: MLHR), Ignite Restaurant (NYSE: IRG), Luby’s (NYSE: LUB), Pacific Sunwear (Nasdaq: PSUN), TearLab (Nasdaq: TEAR), Tilly’s (Nasdaq: TLYS) and Tumi (Nasdaq: TUMI).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

MARKET CORRECTION WARNING - The Fed Will Cut Economic Forecasts

By Markos N. Kaminis,

The Federal Reserve is on record discussing the economic impact of sequester spending cuts and austerity-like measures. However, the investment community may still not be prepared for what I expect the Fed to do on Wednesday, so this should be a value-added economic read. I expect a market correction starting as early as Tuesday and through at least to the 2:00 PM Fed releases, if not beyond. We broke this expectation in an article about Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) earlier this morning at Seeking Alpha, and the market immediately began to look lower.

The Federal Reserve, through the Chairman’s semi-annual address to Congressional Panels, indicated that it agreed with the Budget Office’s estimated cost of sequester spending cuts on the economy. Chairman Bernanke suggested that the sequester cuts would likely cost economic growth 0.6%, and would contribute to a 1.5% drag upon economic growth this year caused by austerity-like measures, including the payroll tax break expiration.

The Federal Reserve’s most recent economic forecasts do not likely include sequester cuts, and might not include the impact of the failed fiscal cliff issues, including the expiration of the payroll tax break. In the Fed’s December forecasts, it projected Real GDP growth of 2.3% to 3.0% for 2013 and a slightly better pace for 2014. The Fed’s December forecasts marked only a slight revision lower from their September view, with the 2013 estimate at that time set for 2.5% to 3.0%. Because of the only slight downgrade in growth expectation, it would seem the Fed’s December view did not include much of a weighting for the sequester failure. It might also imply a lack of inclusion of the other stimulus removal by the Federal government.

So, it seems that at least a portion of the 1.5% cost to economic growth is not included in the December forecasts. It would seem certain that the 0.6% drag was not included. Considering recent downgrades to Wall Street forecasts for corporate earnings this quarter, and the other economic considerations that need to be reconciled, there could be further reason to expect economic forecast cuts on Wednesday.

The run up of the stock market has been substantial this year, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) up 9.3%, 11% and 5.2%, respectively. However, if an economic question is posed Wednesday, and as speculation about this builds today, stocks should correct. Likewise, the securities which had been hammered during the stock market rise, for instance, the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), should gain. Still, Fed discussion may sooth the pain, if the Federal Reserve discusses a better long-term outlook. I advise investors to take appropriate action.

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Market - Cyprus on My Mind

Cyprus is on our mind Tuesday, with the indiscriminate tax being levied on depositors of the island nation. The Greek relative issue rightly stopped stocks Monday, as it is an illegal and forced stealing of the hard earned capital put away in savings accounts alongside with the illegal capital the irresponsible Europeans are seeking to penalize. We’ll have more to say about the issue today, so stay tuned. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) all declined on the day as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) gained ground.

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday, but the monetary policy statement won’t come until Wednesday. A Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor is set to retire today, with his replacement being more dovish. The media should have some interest in the change. The OECD publishes its economic survey, which might serve as a wake-up call, though I do not think for the U.S. A Senate committee will take a look at the American Airlines / U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC) merger. Another panel will consider President Obama’s trade plans.

Housing Starts will be reported for February at 8:30 AM ET. Economists are looking for an improvement this month, with the consensus forecast set for an annual pace of 919K, versus the 890K pace reported in January. Permits are expected to run at the same pace of 925K this month. If the report comes in as expected, or even a little less robust, it should be enough to keep faith in the housing recovery alive and well. I don’t see any reason to expect otherwise.

The latest retailer same-store sales data comes to the wire in the premarket Tuesday. Last week’s data covering the period ending March 9 showed a week-to-week improvement of 0.7%, versus the 0.2% increase the week before. The year-to-year gain of 1.8% matched the prior week result. Redbook had the year-to-year change at plus 2.7%, versus the prior week’s gain of 2.2%. It was a good week, and investors will be hopeful of healthy numbers this week as well.

In corporate news, AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC) is announcing a strategic long-term relationship with Walgreens (NYSE: WAG) and Alliance Boots in a conference call this morning. A New York bankruptcy court will determine what the fate of Hostess Brands like Twinkies is. Kulicke & Soffa (Nasdaq: KLIC) and Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) have shareholder meetings scheduled. The Consumer Analysts’ Group of Europe Conference brings presentations by Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF). The BAML Global Industrials Conference highlights a look at Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR) and the Roth Conference highlights ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACAD). Look for earnings reports from Adobe Systems (Nasdaq: ADBE), Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Rentech (NYSE: RTK), AAR (NYSE: AIR), Acorn Int’l (NYSE: ATV), Astro-Med (Nasdaq: ALOT), FactSet (NYSE: FDS), Francesca’s (Nasdaq: FRAN), Fuel Tech (Nasdaq: FTEK), Gramercy Capital (NYSE: GKK), Orient Paper (NYSE: ONP), Primo Water (Nasdaq: PRMW), Rentech Nitrogen Partners (NYSE: RNF), Savient Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SVNT), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) and many more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Week Ahead – It’s All About the Fed

Hugely important information from the Federal Reserve will be served to investors this week. We will receive the regular monetary policy statement and also the Fed’s quarterly economic forecasts, plus a press conference by the Fed Chairman to close out the day. We’re expecting economic forecasts to be lowered considering the impact of sequester spending cuts. The market will likely focus on the Fed’s faith in the economic recovery and housing traction. There’s plenty more news reaching investors this week, and you can find it all herein.

Monday

There’s just one economic data point on the slate for Monday, the Housing Market Index, a measure of builder sentiment produced by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The index fell by a point in February, to a mark of 46. Economists expect the index to recover lost ground in March, with the consensus expectation set for a reading of 47. The forecast range extends from 46 to 49, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists. In a recent write-up linked to here, we asked whether recent mortgage rate increases could stall an unstable housing recovery.

International events will garner some attention this week. On Monday, France’s President Hollande will meet with Germany’s Chancellor Merkel. This comes after Merkel led a push to make deposit holders in Cyprus pay for some of the nation’s bailout.

On the corporate news front, Alliant Energy (NYSE: LNT) and Employers Holdings (NYSE: EIG) are holding shareholder meetings. There are several investor conferences this week bringing presentations from some important companies. The Consumer Analysts Group of Europe Conference brings a presentation by Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) and Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM). The Barclays Select Series Insurance Forum offers news from Unum Group (NYSE: UNM) and Arch Capital Group (Nasdaq: ACGL). The Roth Conference offers a presentation by Black Diamond (NYSE: BDE). The Williams Financial Group discussion series invites Semtech (Nasdaq: SMTC). Jarden (NYSE: JAH) is scheduled to split 3-for-2 and Franklin Electric (Nasdaq: FELE) splits 2-for-1. A bankruptcy court reviews Patriot Coal’s (OTC: PCXCQ.PK) request to pay bonuses. The earnings schedule has reports for Ameresco (Nasdaq: AMRC), Charm Communications (Nasdaq: CHRM), Cumulus Media (Nasdaq: CMLS), eFuture Information Technology (Nasdaq: EFUT), Hastings Entertainment (Nasdaq: HAST) and Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX).

Tuesday

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday, but the monetary policy statement won’t come until Wednesday. A Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor is set to retire today, with his replacement being more dovish. The media should have some interest in the change. The OECD publishes its economic survey, which might serve as a wake-up call, though I do not think for the U.S. A Senate committee will take a look at the American Airlines / U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC) merger. Another panel will consider President Obama’s trade plans.

Housing Starts will be reported for February at 8:30 AM ET. Economists are looking for an improvement this month, with the consensus forecast set for an annual pace of 919K, versus the 890K pace reported in January. Permits are expected to run at the same pace of 925K this month. If the report comes in as expected, or even a little less robust, it should be enough to keep faith in the housing recovery alive and well. I don’t see any reason to expect otherwise.

The latest retailer same-store sales data comes to the wire in the premarket Tuesday. Last week’s data covering the period ending March 9 showed a week-to-week improvement of 0.7%, versus the 0.2% increase the week before. The year-to-year gain of 1.8% matched the prior week result. Redbook had the year-to-year change at plus 2.7%, versus the prior week’s gain of 2.2%. It was a good week, and investors will be hopeful of healthy numbers this week as well.

In corporate news, a New York bankruptcy court will determine what the fate of Hostess Brands like Twinkies is. Kulicke & Soffa (Nasdaq: KLIC) and Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) have shareholder meetings scheduled. The Consumer Analysts’ Group of Europe Conference brings presentations by Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF). The BAML Global Industrials Conference highlights a look at Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR) and the Roth Conference highlights ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACAD). Look for earnings reports from Adobe Systems (Nasdaq: ADBE), Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Rentech (NYSE: RTK) and many more.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be as big as a day gets for the market, with some very key information emanating from the Federal Reserve. First, at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will declare its current monetary policy plans. Expectations are for no change to rates and asset purchases. Also at 2:00 PM, we’ll get the latest updated Fed forecast data. The quarterly report offers insight into the Fed’s expectations for GDP, employment and inflation. We may get a downgrade to growth on the sequester cuts. Then at 2:30 PM comes the Chairman’s press conference, within which he may continue to speak positively about economic recovery. However, he is not expected to announce any time schedule for monetary policy change. He may offer some insight into the metrics that matter most to the Fed, and those are likely to remain employment and inflation relative. This information will dictate trade not only for Wednesday, but for the next few weeks. You won’t like what takes the baton after that… earnings.

We’ll get the regular mortgage activity data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday morning. Last week’s report showed a decrease in activity on higher mortgage rates, leading us to ask if higher interest rates might stall the housing recovery.

The weekly Petroleum Status Report is up for release at 10:30 AM EDT. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 8 showed crude oil inventories increased 2.6 million barrels to a level still well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels to the middle of the average range for this time of year.

President Barack Obama visits Israel for the first time in his entire presidency. I expect this will raise speculation about Iran and spook oil prices and major integrated oils like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). In other international news, U.K. Finance Minister George Osborne will deliver his 2013 budget.

In corporate news, an FDA advisory committee examines a circulatory device of Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT). Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), Agilent (NYSE: A), Ciena (Nasdaq: CIEN), Terex (NYSE: TEX), Flowers Foods (NYSE: FLO), Flowserve (NYSE: FLS), JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) and Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) have shareholder or analyst meetings scheduled. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is presenting at the ISI Retail Summit and Visa (NYSE: V) is presenting at the Barclays Emerging Payments Conference. The earnings schedule highlights reports from Concord Medical Services (NYSE: CCM), FedEx (NYSE: FDX), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) and Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL). Trimble Navigation (Nasdaq: TRMB) will split its shares 2-for-1.

Thursday

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due for release at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. Last week’s data covering the period ending March 9 showed claims fell by 10K to a level of 332K. The four-week moving average declined to a historically significant point last week, exciting the market a bit. On the news last week, I asked the question whether 7.1 million Americans mattered or not, because they remain unaccounted for in labor statistics.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index (Flash) is due around 9:00 AM EDT Thursday. The index drifted lower at the close of February to a reading of 54.3. Economists see the measure up to 55.0 this time around.

At 9:00 AM, catch the FHFA House Price Index. This reading for January is seen showing a 0.7% increase, versus last month’s noted 0.6% gain.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index is up for its weekly release at 9:45 AM. Last week’s data showed a 0.8 point increase in confidence to -31.6. It was the highest level since last April, and the sixth straight week of improvement.

Existing Home Sales will be reported for February at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see sales rising to an annual pace of 5.01 million, up from 4.92 million in January. The housing market is critical to the market’s confidence, so each of this week’s data points will be scrutinized by us and should be noted by you.

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be reported at 10:00 AM for the month of February. The LEI is seen by economists increasing by 0.4% in February, versus the 0.2% gain in January.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank issues its survey on manufacturing conditions at 10:00 AM. The Philly Fed’s General Business Activity Index is seen improving to a still negative -1.5 mark in March, better than its -12.5 level the month before.

The EIA presents its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 8 showed natural gas stores decreased by 145 Bcf, to a level 440 Bcf below last year and 198 Bcf above the five-year average.

The new Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Vladimir Putin in Moscow, an interesting early travel plan that should be noted by metals investors and commodity interests.

In corporate news, an FDA advisory panel reviews a drug application for opioid dependence by Titan Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: TTNP). Reader’s Digest Association is asking for approval from a bankruptcy court for a $105 million loan for reorganization purposes. Look for analyst and investor meetings at AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), Palo Alto Networks (Nasdaq: PANW) and Susser Petroleum (Nasdaq: SUSP). Honeywell (NYSE: HON) presents at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industrials & EU Autos Conference. Fluor (NYSE: FLR) presents at the BB&T Commercial & Industrial Conference. The earnings schedule includes news from Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST), Nike (NYSE: NKE), China Zenix Auto (NYSE: ZX) and IHS (NYSE: IHS).

Friday

There are no economic reports scheduled for Friday.

Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Raskin address U.S. labor market conditions in a speech Friday.

On the corporate news wire, look for Headwaters (NYSE: HW) to meet with analysts. Reporting earnings are Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) and GenVec (Nasdaq: GNVC).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

A Stress Free Trading Day Ahead

Economic report & corporate event planner

The S&P 500 Index takes aim at a record Friday, but it will contend with some special factors including Quadruple Witching (how I dislike the term). The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) all gained Thursday between 0.3% and 0.6%. I see a record breaking day in store Friday, but I’m not sure we’ll hold ground after the fact or even into the close. The big news driver of Friday’s trade came after the close Thursday when the Federal Reserve issued its bank stress test data, formally known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review. Post the release, the after-hours winners included Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Capital One (NYSE: COF), PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC), Fifth Third (Nasdaq: FITB) and Regions Financial (NYSE: RF). Losers included J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), Ally Financial (Nasdaq: ALFI), Keycorp (NYSE: KEY), SunTrust (NYSE: STI), State Street (NYSE: STT) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), in approximate order of the after-hours move. The report disapproved with the plans of Ally Financial and BB&T Corp., and conditionally condemned Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February leads the wire Friday morning. Economists see the CPI up 0.5% this month, versus the absence of change in January. However, excluding food and energy prices, the Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2%, less than last month’s 0.3% rise.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to hold at about the same level this month. Economists see the index inching down to 10.0, from 10.4 last month.

New Treasury International Capital (TIC) data will reach the wire at 9:00 AM ET Friday. There’s no economists’ forecast here.

Industrial Production data will reach the wire at 9:00 AM for the month of February. Economists see production rising by 0.5%, after dropping by 0.1% last month. Manufacturing production is expected to increase by 0.3% this month, after dropping by 0.4% last month. Industrial capacity utilization is expected to improve to 79.4% this month, from 79.1% in January.

The Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is up for release at 9:55 AM. Economists see the index holding steady this month, measuring 77.5, versus 77.6 at the end of last month. Again, gains in February were all on Washington D.C. simply getting out of the way of business.

A Senate subcommittee will hold a hearing on J.P. Morgan’s (NYSE: JPM) London whale trade.

On the corporate wire, Ford (NYSE: F) hosts its Ford University Conference Call. Fifth & Pacific Cos. (NYSE: FNP) has its Kate Spade New York 2013 Investor Day. The earnings schedule brings Abraxas Petroleum (Nasdaq: AXAS), Brown Shoe (NYSE: BWS), Carnival (NYSE: CCL), China Pharma (Nasdaq: CPHI), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Clean Diesel Technologies (Nasdaq: CDTI), Crimson Exploration (Nasdaq: CXPO), Destination XL Group (Nasdaq: DXLG), Federal Signal (NYSE: FSS), Hibbett Sports (Nasdaq: HIBB), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: INO), Jinpan Int’l (NYSE: JST), Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV), Lihua Int’l (Nasdaq: LIWA), Optical Cable (NYSE: OCC), Progenics Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: PGNX), Senomyx (Nasdaq: SNMX), Stonemor Partners (Nasdaq: STON), Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE), Zhongpin (Nasdaq: HOGS) and Zogenix (Nasdaq: ZGNX) to the wire.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Samsung’s New Phone & Bank Stress Tests Head Thursday’s Must Know News

The Dow achieved its ninth day of sequential rise yesterday and aims at 10 in a row today. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index is just a few points from breaking into virgin territory itself. Today, the buzz is hot about Samsung’s new product (OTC: SSNLF.PK) introduction in Manhattan. The company’s new Galaxy S IV will let you scroll your screen with your eyes! That’s the kind of innovation we have come to expect from Apple, but it’s Google (GOOG) and Samsung leading the line today.

Considering the news about BlackBerry’s (Nasdaq: BBRY) new record phone sales was likewise important today, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) seems threatened. The company is playing defense, a strange state of affairs for it, as it came out declaring how inferior the competitor gear is. But Apple is supposed to be about showing and stunning us, not proclaiming and reminding, so perhaps we really have entered a new phase for Apple. I think the downside could be $400 on the stock near-term, and that it will take a new product introduction into a new market like an Apple television to get it back to $700. For now, though, Apple is no longer the prettiest girl in the room.

See our latest write-up about Apple, Buffet Genius Fails Apple.

The Federal Reserve will release the second phase of its bank stress test data today after the close, but considering the first report was supportive, I think the market will not anticipate anything else. However, Citigroup (NYSE: C) and others have risen significantly this year, and might see some challenge before the close on concern and for protection of wealth. Yesterday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) rose fractionally, but the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) slipped a bit. It’s hard to say the QQQ could turn it around today, considering Apple’s importance to it. I’m sensing a near-term turn around for each, but probably not today.

The Federal Reserve will release the details of its bank stress tests, or the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, formally speaking. It examines the capital planning efforts and processes of major banks and financial institutions. Also, the House Financial Services Committee will examine “too big to fail” in a public hearing.

Thursday offers the Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. The measure of inflation at the producer front is expected to show a 0.6% increase for February, versus January’s 0.2% rise in prices. However, when excluding food and energy, the Core PPI is seen rising a lesser 0.2%, matching January’s rise.

Weekly Jobless Claims is also due at 8:30 AM, but will carry little weight considering its nearness to the Employment Situation Report - we showed unemployment to be 18%. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 2 showed claims fell by 7K, to 340K. This week, economists see an increase to 350K, based on Bloomberg data. The four-week moving average fell by 7K last week to a figure of 348,750.

The Current Account report for the fourth quarter of 2012 is expected to show a deficit of $111.9 billion, versus last quarter’s $107.5 billion.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is up at 9:45 AM ET. The weekly measure of consumer views improved 0.4 points to -32.4 last week, the best point for it this year. This is certainly benefiting from new euphoria in the stock market, recovering real estate and the pushing aside of political concerns.

Look for the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the EIA at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 1 showed working gas in storage declined by 146 Bcf. Stocks were 361 Bcf less than last year, but 269 Bcf above their five-year average for this time of year.

The corporate wire has presentations at the Barclays Healthcare Conference by Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) and Covidien (NYSE: COV). Inter-American Development Bank is having its annual meeting in Panama City, Panama. The earnings slate has news from Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Airmedia Group (Nasdaq: AMCN), Callon Petroleum (NYSE: CPE) and Cornerstone Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CRTX). Look for more earnings data from AAON (Nasdaq: AAON), ADA-ES (Nasdaq: ADES), Affinia Group (NYSE: AFN), Anacor Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ANAC), ArQule (Nasdaq: ARQL), AV Homes (Nasdaq: AVHI), Bonanza Creek Energy (Nasdaq: BCEI), Callon Petroleum (NYSE: CPE), Carmike Cinemas (Nasdaq: CKEC), Cleveland BioLabs (Nasdaq: CBLI), Columbia Laboratories (Nasdaq: CBRX), Comstock Mining (Nasdaq: LODE), Core-Mark Holding (Nasdaq: CORE), Coronado Biosciences (Nasdaq: CNDO), Cosi (Nasdaq: COSI), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Dot Hill Systems (Nasdaq: HILL), Dynegy (NYSE: DYN), Ebix (Nasdaq: EBIX), Edgen Group (NYSE: EDG), FX Energy (Nasdaq: FXEN), Global Partners (NYSE: GLP), GSE Holding (NYSE: GSE), Hawaiian Telecom (Nasdaq: HCOM), Health Insurance Innovations (Nasdaq: HIIQ), Integrated Electrical Services (Nasdaq: IESC), Kirkland’s (Nasdaq: KIRK), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD), Lifetime Brands (Nasdaq: LCUT), Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: MACK), Molycorp (NYSE: MCP), Natural Gas Services (NYSE: NGS), Neonode (Nasdaq: NEON), Nortek (NYSE: NTK), Northern Tier Energy (NYSE: NTI), Obagi Medical (Nasdaq: OMPI), Ocean Power Technologies (Nasdaq: OPTT), Oncothyreon (Nasdaq: ONTY), ORBCOMM (Nasdaq: ORBC), ReneSola (NYSE: SOL), Research Frontiers (Nasdaq: REFR), SMTC (Nasdaq: SMTX), STEC (Nasdaq: STEC), STR Holdings (Nasdaq: STRI), Supernus Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SUPN), Synta Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SNTA), Taomee Holdings (Nasdaq: TAOM), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Tianli Agritech (Nasdaq: OINK), Ulta Salon (Nasdaq: ULTA), UltraPetrol (Nasdaq: ULTR) and Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.