Consumer Confidence Rose but Much has Changed

Consumer Confidence rose in July according to the Conference Board, but the Index was measured on July 14th, when America still expected its representatives in Washington to act responsibly. I have a feeling if the survey were taken today, it would return a significantly different result.

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Consumer Confidence Rose but Much has Changed

The Conference Board Index, produced through a survey by The Nielsen Company, showed an improvement in July, to 59.5, up from 57.6 in June. Economists didn’t venture far from the prior month’s mark, perhaps a sign of uncertainty among the forecasters, as they set the bar at 57.0.

The reading was mostly higher, though marginally so, due to expectations for the next six months, not due to the current situation. And Lord knows, if the “current situation” were representative of July 26th (the midnight hour), well then we might be looking at a fractional result. The Present Situation Index fell to 35.7 from 36.6, and the Expectations Index gained ground to 75.4 from 71.6.

The component measure covering survey respondents’ views of current business conditions offered an intriguing result that perhaps reflects the broader divide that seems to be developing in the nation. The number of Americans seeing better opportunity and deteriorated opportunity both increased, illustrating a polarization of views. With regard to employment, those seeing an improved employment environment remained at an extremely low level, while the number of folks finding jobs harder to get increased to an even more significant number.

In conclusion, the absolute level of the Consumer Confidence Index is bad enough to begin with, so the small change for the better should be discounted. Secondly, the date of measurement and its distance from the current date matter this time around. That said, depending on what happens between August 2nd and now, and contingent upon the wisdom and restraint of S&P (NYSE: MHP) and Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), August’s index measure could be wildly higher or reflective of the Apocalypse, in this analyst’s view.

Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

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