Greece vs. Germany - A Game for Pride

Greece vs. Germany

From the very moment Greece was issued aid by its European partners, its harshest critic and most stern policeman has been Germany. The Germans, you see, are budget minded and perennially profitable. Thus, the nation’s austere populace wonders aloud why they should pay for Greek negligence.

Greeks on the streets of Athens and Greek-Americans in New York City counter with arguments about the infinite contributions of the Greek culture to society, the foundation upon which modern day Germany stands. Greeks will neither shy from reminding embarrassed Germans about the tonnage of gold and ancient relics stolen away during World War II, not to mention 10% of the Hellenic Republic’s population sacrificed in its impossible defense against the Nazis. That was one of the largest percentage losses by an Ally during the war, though did not compare to the atrocities suffered by the Jewish people.

So, in retrospect, perhaps it’s not too much to ask Germany for a little slack today, so that Greece might stand on its feet again. However, after the Greeks voted to endure continued austerity for the sake of remaining in the euro-zone, and to honor their debts to the EU and IMF, German Chancellor Angela Merkel only reiterated a strict stance for hard days for Greece. Others in Italy and Spain, where the taste of Greece’s pain is almost familiar, called for an extension of the time line for Greece to pay back its debt. Such grace would allow Greece to more gradually employ necessary measures in a means that might not overburden its economy and its people.

Much insult and injury has been delivered by each party in this family argument, but on Friday the nations will each get a chance to vent in a very competitive and direct manner. Greece faces Germany, you see, in the quarterfinals of the UEFA European Championship. To the winner goes the pride.

Picking the Winner

Greece does not match up well against Germany today in many regards, but if a comparison were made taking into account the course of history, well then we would have a different favorite. Let’s have some fun then picking a winner between Greece and Germany in this marquee matchup…

Category	Greece	Germany
FIFA World Soccer Ranking	15	3
Population	10.8 Million	81.9 Mln.
GDP Global Rank	#35	#4
Most Millionaires
Military Size	#29	#30
Contributions to Humanity
History
Passion
Most Euro Victories	1	3
Most Recent Euro Victory	2004	1996
Best Story If Victorious

**    Data by Wikipedia, except millionaires list which was published by Bloomberg Businessweek, and “Passion,” “History,” and “Best Story If Victorious,” which were determined by your very biased author.

Greece does not have a whole lot going on these days, save soup kitchens and suicides. Its population is much smaller than Germany’s, but its military is larger including reserves. Greece’s economy cannot compare to the cornerstone of Europe, which is Germany. As far as publicly traded companies, well, that is part of the problem. Greece’s industrial base is much less important than Germany’s, with Greece’s focus on tourism, agriculture and shipping. Take note though that the domicile of Greece’s significant shipping industry is not formally within Greece, and so not one company makes the list below.

The National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG) trades in penny stock territory at $1.76 per share in New York, though it’s still sporting a market capitalization of $1.68 billion. Germany’s best known bank is Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), trading upward of $35 per share, valuing the company at $32.7 billion. Germany’s largest companies are in fact on the tip of the tongue of most Americans, while Greek firms are generally not known except by Greek-American stock nerds like your Wall Street Greek.

Germany’s Largest Companies Notable to Americans:

• Allianz Worldwide (OTC: AZSEY)
• Daimler-Chrysler (OTC: DDAIF)
• Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB)
• Siemens (NYSE: SI)
• Munich Re (MUV2.F)
• BMW Group (BMW.DE)
• Volkswagen (OTC: VLKPY)
• BASF (OTC: BASFY)
• Commerzbank (OTC: CRZBY)
• Bayer (OTC: BAYRY)
• ThyssenKrupp (OTC: TYEKF)
• SAP (NYSE: SAP)

For Greece, it’s a different story:

• National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG)
• Alpha Bank A.E. (OTC: ALBKY)
• Agricultural Bank of Greece (ATE.AT)
• Viohalco S.A. (BIOX.AT)
• Bank of Cyprus (BOC.AT)
• Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. (NYSE: CCH)
• Ellaktor S.A. (ELTEX.AT)
• Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE.AT)
• EFG Eurobank Ergasias S.A. (OTC: EGFEY)
• Hellenic Telecommunications (OTC: HLTOY)
• INTRALOT S.A. (OTC: IRLTY)
• Marfin Financial Group (OTC: MRFGY)
• Marfin Investment Group (MIG.AT)
• Motor Oil Corinth Refineries (MOH.AT)
• Mytilineos Holdings (MYTIL.AT)
• OPAP SA (OTC: GOFPY)
• Public Power Corp. (PPC.AT)
• Titan Cement (TITK.AT)
• Piraeus Bank (TPEIR.AT)
• TT Hellenic Postbank SA (TT.AT)

It’s a list of never heard of names for most of you.

Clearly, economically speaking, Greece is a second class citizen. Much of this is because of the great brain drain that occurred for Greece after Ottoman rule and during the dark days following World War II. Whether because of communism and civil war, or for survival’s sake, a great many Greeks left Greece and are now domiciled across the globe. Greeks are leaving again today for their own survival, and are being welcomed across the globe by their brethren. It’s unfortunate that sometimes they never return.

As far as soccer goes, there’s a beautiful fairness in play. On any given day, any given team can beat any other team. That is because it will not be 80 million against 10 million on Friday; GDP nor personal wealth will matter when the national teams meet on the pitch. What will matter is passion and pride, two factors which run richly in Greeks. Yet, the Greek team is overmatched, as is clear by the FIFA rankings and by the play of both teams through the tournament thus far. But, these two teams have not met yet. Germany is a strong soccer squad, and just like its culture, it succeeds through science and scheme. For Greece, though, the game itself often determines how well the team plays. When Greece met with host Poland in the first round, it seemed to have compassion for the lesser rival, and the result was a tie. Against the Czech Republic, perhaps the Greek team recalled its important victory en route to its magical 2004 triumph, and so a loss resulted. When it came to Russia, winning was critical to the Greek team, and so they played to their full potential. Beating Germany is more than critical; it is a national necessity.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Buy Stocks as PIIGS will Escape Slaughter!

With the Greek elections, the second of the sort, due this weekend, bond investors have been leading the PIIGS to slaughter this week. Rising bond yields in Spain forced the pivotal European nation to seek assistance last weekend, which in turn drew a downgrade by Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) this morning. The threshold to the ultimate disaster may soon be breached, with Italian bond yields rising sharply today. But, never fear dear readers and panicked investors, because the Greek result seems set up for a relief rally. So, please be sure to read this report full through.

Relative tickers include SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK), iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index (NYSE: EWI), Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Coca-Cola Hellenic (NYSE: CCH), Hellenic Telecommunications (OTC: HLTOY) and Marfin Investment (MIG.AT).

Buy Stocks Now

Spain’s sovereign debt rating was cut to one level above junk today, to Baa3, from A3. Moody’s said Spanish risk was heightened due to the risk of a Greek exit from the euro zone, and resulting full catastrophe. This is of course the market’s worst nightmare, because if debt costs increase across Europe’s most indebted nations, it might force the EU’s leading backers (aka Germany and France) to re-evaluate whether it’s worthwhile for them to continue carrying their cross. Thus, it could be the end of the euro-zone as we know it, or worse yet, the end of Europe’s united economy. That’s why stocks have been on the downslide up until now.

Wall Street is bothered by the Spanish 10-year bond rate above 7% today, up markedly from yesterday. If Spain cannot borrow at manageable cost, it will be in need of the same sort of rescue Greece keeps receiving. The problem here is of course that the Spanish economy is much more significant than the Greek feta foray version. Spain represents the world’s 12th largest economy in fact, but the disease would likely spread from there, which is terrifying Brussels today.

Italy is even more important than Greece or Spain, and while Italian 10-year bond costs hardly moved today, the nation’s just issued debt was sold at much higher cost. Italian 3-year bond yields were up more than a percentage point, while 7-year bonds almost reached a point higher as well. This is the worst case scenario that the world has sought to mitigate since the Greek crisis began. As a result, European shares were lower Thursday morning, with the Euro STOXX 50 Price EUR down 0.3% nearing the day’s close; but that was a bit better than the start of the day.

In fact, the Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK), iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP) and the iShares MSCI Italy Index (NYSE: EWI) are each markedly higher Thursday. Even the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) is up 9.5%. Heck, the National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Coca-Cola Hellenic (NYSE: CCH), Hellenic Telecommunications (OTC: HLTOY) and Marfin Investment (MIG.AT) were all higher by large margin. So what gives then?

A bit of interesting news reached the wire over the past couple days, but it was largely overlooked by the market. The head of the disruptive Greek political coalition, Syriza, Alexis Tsipras, said that he would not lead Greece out of the euro zone. Well, that would seem to defuse the ticking time bomb, because the market’s greatest concern has been that Greek political change might change the course for Greece with regard to its European monetary ties. That’s exactly what speculative smart money is betting against today, sending these shares in what would seem counterintuitive direction, which is higher. That’s the direction I would advise aggressive investors to take as well to participate in what should be a super relief rally. I think the same is in store for the S&P 500, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) off 5.7% since the start of May. Guess what: it’s up Thursday morning and I’m looking for much more over the coming hours and days.

This is a forecast that runs against the tide, so I’m out on a limb. Give an unbiased strategist some respect for the guts to make such a call, and credit if my forecast proves true. Follow our blog for more insight and actionable advice.

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greece Calls Europe's Bluff

Mario Monte, the Italian Prime Minister, made some market supporting statements last week which must have sounded familiar to readers of this column. Mr. Monte said some things Greeks have long been saying as well, albeit at the top of their lungs while being beaten back by police batons. He said the troika of the IMF, European Union and European Central Bank had been too hard on Greece, demanding drastic change of the Greeks over a period much shorter than appropriate. The short-term disruption of this radical change has been more detrimental than the long-term benefit it aims to achieve, and so indigestible by the Greeks. As a result, the Greeks have spoken, and finally, European ears are listening.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Article is relevant to Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamericano (NYSE: BLX), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Greece Snuffs EU Bluff

You might remember a series of articles written here over the last few years on the topic of the impossible austerity plan shoved down the throats of the Greeks. It took more than words, though, to gain the attention of Greece’s European masters. It took more than uprising even. It took the action of Greek voters, who so vehemently opposed austerity as to lift a radical political coalition into a position of influence. With political polls conflicted now as to what could result when a second election proceeds in June, the market has begun to price in a Gr-exit, or Greek exit from the euro-zone. Likewise, Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) and Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP) have begun to account for what might follow in Spain, Portugal and Monte’s Italy. Suddenly, and not coincidentally, the impossible is possible for Europe.

The idea of offering euro-bonds, a unified action that at least the Germans had ruled unconstitutional, is now being openly and seriously considered. But it took the rise of the “little people,” as one politician notoriously labeled them a few years back, to force the hand of power in favor of financial fairness. When Greece’s newest political voice, Syriza, said the Europeans were bluffing regarding the required nature of their prescription for Greece, hardly anyone believed them, and yet today it looks as though they were right.

It reminds me of an interesting political ploy tried by the Greeks not long before. Just days before PASOK’s persecuted leader, George Papandreou said the Greeks deserved a referendum before inheriting the weights of austerity, we wrote that the Greek people should determine their own fate. And after the PM had played his poker hand, we said it might not be the political suicide it seemed to be, but instead genius, because it would force the Europeans to show their true hand. That same truth is apparent again today, and it reflects a weaker European position than what they had bluffed they held.

In the end, it looks as though the path was always laid out, but that political patience would have to persevere until the populace of Europe was ready to venture down it. What is happening is a better bonding of Europe, through the catalyst of crisis and the glue of fear. As the region ties itself together, though, I worry it will later more easily drown. This is because, while I understand the construct of the plan is to solidify the union, I believe fiat currency will be more easily weakened in the process. This is because I see another catalyst ahead that only a fearless visionary might venture to present now, which will unravel this best laid plan. However, this is better the topic of another story.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Why Stocks Celebrated Disruptive European Elections

Based on the action of stocks Monday, it would seem investors favor the possibility that Europe might finally be rid of Greece. Or it may be that investors have seen the light, and have finally realized that the age of austerity was a dark one. Or, perhaps change of any sort would have been celebrated by a distressed market.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relevant tickers: NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQ, NYSE: GREK, OTC: HLTOY.PK, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: VGK, NYSE: EWG, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: EWQ, NYSE: DB, NYSE: STD, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: RY, NYSE: BFR, NYSE: IRE, NYSE: BMO, NYSE: CM, NYSE: ING, NYSE: C.

It's a Celebration?

European shares were mostly higher Monday, even after Greeks unseated their socialist rulers, PASOK, the ushers of austerity. So it would seem that more than their fear of a break down in confidence in the EU (that might drive Spanish and Italian bond yields higher), investors maybe worry about keeping a lumbering Greece within the group. But with France electing a socialist, who seems intent on leveling the playing field between the rich and poor, and who does not favor austerity, it would seem maybe something more important is afoot.

Bucking the trend, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK), Hellenic Telecommunications (OTC: HLTOY.PK) and Greek shares generally tumbled, as neither did the New Democracy party gain clear control. The result was likely due to the new democrats’ role in the current catastrophe. Instead, the Radical Left Coalition, or Syriza, finished second in Parliamentary voting. Anti-austerity parties, including even an anti-immigration organization, won seats at the cost of the mainstream, as Greeks expressed their frustration with austerity clearly.

But why are European shares higher, given that Greece could theoretically now reject the austerity prerequisites of European and IMF aid. The Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK) rose 1% Monday, and the iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV) was up 0.8%. The iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG) gained 0.5% and Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) rose 1.6%. The popular view seems to be that Francois Hollande, the new French leader, might listen to the reason of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and others now that the election is over. However, I say there is more to it than that.

I think the market has spoken in its efficient and infinite wisdom, and what it is saying is that the age of austerity is over and good riddance to it. The French CAC 40 Index gained 1.65% and the iShares MSCI France Index (NYSE: EWQ) added 1.3% to its stature. American investors were confused, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) erasing initial losses. Maybe it’s just hope that’s selling to investors these days; perhaps change of any sort would be celebrated by a desperate market. In that case, when the high wears off and investors find not much has changed with regard to the lagging economy, stubborn unemployment and burdensome debt load, and on top of that, pressure builds on other nations on the fringe, the celebration should prove short-lived.

It could take time for prospective growth initiatives to have effect, so patience may wear thin. However, shifting the burden from the poor to the rich could be just a vote away for the French and the Greeks. That is precisely why there’s talk today of a potential run of money, with its destination divided, but its origination now decided. Money has been leaving Greece for some time now though, given the duration of its crisis. For France, it’s a new phenomenon. For Europe, it could be the way of the future, and for the United States, it could be a trend that catches on.

Article is relevant to Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamericano (NYSE: BLX), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Europe’s Election Chaos Could Murder Stocks

The result of Sunday’s elections should spell doomsday for Europe and the stock market too, given what is playing out in Greece. Before the voting began, the polls showed Greece’s two mainstream political parties PASOK and New Democracy could garner just 38% of Parliament combined. With 60+% of the vote counted, the two had fewer than 35% of the votes in total. It appears there will not be enough votes to form a proper coalition, given the distance between the two mainstream parties and the protest vote winners on the fringe.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

European Election Fallout

We discussed the Political Risk that is entering the frame for Europe in an article published on April 23rd, and this risk has definitely played a role in the unsettled state of the stock market over the last month. In fact, last week was the worst so far this year for stocks, though the disappointing monthly Employment Situation Report gets the blame for that, with a second straight month of soft job creation noted.

Now, don’t get me wrong, because I’m no fan of austerity implemented during times of economic recession, and I have argued vehemently against today’s popular wisdom in Europe from the start. That’s because it seems too many folks have forgotten that it was precisely this type of activity that turned a mild recession into the Great Depression for the United States. Ben Bernanke knows it very well, but he is also served well by keeping quiet, since his expansionary efforts for the U.S. would have had more detrimental impact to the dollar if not for the hobbled euro, not to mention the tragic earthquake that struck Japan. Conspiracy theorists might also look toward the rating agencies, especially Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP), which seemed to turn up the heat on Europe at a conspicuous moment for the dollar.

The results of the election should ferry in friction for the European master plan. I’m speaking of the drastic change the Germans have engineered for Greece, modeling it after its own image, so that it might receive aid to emerge from the debt it is buried under. It’s too bad though that the powers that be did not factor in the opinion of the Greeks who have been forced to swallow a swift disruptive change to their lifestyle, and all because of the poor management of their government.

Greek private sector debt was relatively small, and yet the Greek people are being asked to pay. Granted, the Greek government’s budget math would have Archimedes turning over in his grave, but some of the austerity measures being forced down Greece’s throat make little sense for an economy under threat of recession. Extending the retirement age was one thing, but firing thousands of public sector workers was mistimed and too immediate in its implementation.

The good thing about democracy is that it allows for the regular evaluation of government actions, and given Greece’s desperate acceptance of every EU command, the government will now be overhauled. What this means is that perhaps a radical voice will eventually emerge from Syntagma Square offering courageous (some would say ignorant) disagreement. With the way things have developed economically speaking, the voice will carry credence as well, and possibly shape a better way for Greece. God willing, it will not leave it outside of the euro zone, but that worst nightmare has a good chance of proving true. For now, not much of anything will get done, given the disjointed polls.

The stock market will reflect this chaotic circumstance Monday, with Asian shares starting the slide already. As of late evening Sunday in the Eastern Time zone, the NIKKEI 225 was lower 2.6% and the MSCI Asia Apex 50 was off 2.4%. European shares seemed sure to follow as I scribbled late Sunday night. They certainly showed signs of it last week, when the SPDR STOXX Europe 50 (NYSE: FEU) sank 1.5% Friday. The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) gained 1.2%, but it should soon trade in its charge for change in for panic too. In France, where Francois Hollande was celebrating victory and declaring the end of austerity, the iShares MSCI France Index (NYSE: EWQ) might offer a similar decline to its 1.6% Friday fall. Unless, that is, investors believe Europe will stick together, but at the same time look towards the sort of creative growth initiatives I’ve been calling for from the start.

I anticipate a deep and dark red day Monday for U.S. investors as well without a certain reassurance from Germany. The American stock market tends to shy away from uncertainty, let alone chaos, sort of like the 1.4% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average implied last week (SPDR Dow Industrials (NYSE: DIA) down 1.3%). Given that the probability of a Greek default has suddenly increased for those wearing blinders, and that the European plan could fall apart as swiftly as life in Greece has, you can bet on increased volatility in equities and a favoring of sell orders over the near-term. I reiterate, this should play out unless Europe can keep the funds flowing while easing on austerity. This will be the key, and we’ll look to Germany to see if a door is opened.

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Enter Political Risk

Many in the media are attributing nascent softness in European and also American shares to whatever happens to be in the news that day or this week. While many of these issues are certainly important to the market, like for instance the latest Spanish bond sale or the European recession foreseen here for months now, there’s a major issue that short-sightedness has not allowed into perspective. Political risk is increasingly entering the frame, and it threatens to change the game for Europe, the United States and much of the world this year and beyond.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers include: Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), iShares MSCI France Index (NYSE: EWQ), Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK), iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index (NYSE: EWI), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA).

Political Risk of European Fascism

In times of duress, austerity stricken citizens tend to vote with more than just boisterous protesting; you know, like the now commonplace (in Greece) burning of automobiles, breaking of storefront windows and hurling of stones at your friendly neighborhood cop. While many nations have put off long awaited elections, this year, the ballots will hit the fan.

This weekend offered the first splattering in a big, bad and potentially disgusting way for investors. The French elections could break up the French-German connection lovingly known as Merkozy. French PM Nicholas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have with their concerted effort led Europe through its most difficult time since the Second World War. In fact, they have very likely kept the European Union together, though in a weakened and more fragile state. It is precisely this popular opinion that threatens to unseat the French connection, with Sarkozy expected to be overcome by Socialist Francois Hollande, who this weekend scored a first round victory over the incumbent Sarkozy. The election concludes on May 6, which is shaping up to be like a sort of doomsday for Europe.

You see, on May 6, the Greeks will also very likely unseat their leadership. The choice for Europeans continues to be represented by the same old faces from the same old political parties, which are adept at dishing out whatever the people’s palette desires on any given day. For instance, in Greece today, the New Democracy Party is talking up growth initiatives over the sour tasting austerity their socialist counterparts in PASOK have been forced to serve. Yet, it was under New Democracy that Greece forged its economic data to sneak into the euro zone. I’m not sure the Greek people are as forgetful as politicians may think.

The problem is that for Greeks, and others, there are very few alternative digestible options to choose from. Still, desperation has driven many to desperate affiliation. The communists have even found some support, but Marxism has been so effectively disproven by history that they really waste national resources by their organization. It may be a good thing, though, as their existence keeps radical opposition fragmented.

Extreme right wing radical parties have been quick to spring up across Europe with common political themes, notably anti-immigration, anti-assimilation and of course, anti-austerity. So far, these fascist parties have come up against the broadly accepted wisdom of the day, which is that globalization and common civilization lead to prosperity. However, I have to question how much longer such anchors will hold against the storm of economic recession (depression for some) that is tormenting Europeans.

More than 50% of Greece’s young adults are unemployed and tired of the old guard, which is represented for them by both of the popular parties. Youth unemployment is a common theme running across Europe, and if the young are inspired enough to assault policemen, then they’re inspired enough to vote. In France, the extreme right wing candidate Marine Le Pen received 18% of the popular vote this weekend, vividly illustrating the new found favor of fascism throughout the region. However, for France, full-blooded fascism cannot take comfort hold of the nation, due to its large immigration driven Islamic minority. Still, the fascist voice is now needed by both major parties to overcome the other, and so Madame Le Pen garners leverage which she may use to insidiously gain more power.

Those voices which would smother this argument and the threat of fascism with the usual description of the disjointed membership of the “far right,” which includes various extremists, anarchists, racists and religious conservatives, would miss the critical point. What unites these varied groups is dissatisfaction with the ruling parties, and that is a rapidly increasing commonly shared disgust throughout the streets of Europe. It will only take further strife, which is expected here, combined with sensible sounding figure heads atop these parties to drive radical change in Europe, and that is not a farfetched or distant possibility.

For now, the seemingly smartest voices continue to support the policies of the established parties. The problem is that the comfort of their seats has made these politicians too complacent. They are so sure of themselves and the ways of today, that they are likely to be overrun like deaf blind men standing before a herd of charging elephants. They are unable to clearly see that the usual lunch meetings with the usual experts providing the usual economic advice will not suffice these dynamic times.

What fascism will likely bring to Europe and eventually the world will be an undoing of civilization. The progress of the world since World War II could be undone in a decade. The European Union may hold in some form for the sake of mutual protection against the dark shadows that lurk to the east, but despite its similarly sensible economic reasoning, the euro zone would likely disintegrate.

The polar opposite direction, which I should discuss separately, could lead desperate European leaders to strike a stronger political union while they still can. Combining in such a manner, however it may make sense to the desperate, should also support the growth of the region’s cancer across now somewhat healthy states. I expect that such a unionization effort would tie the region, and drown the entire group together. That’s because I expect the European Central Bank (ECB) would then get its hands dirty, and the excessive creation of fiat currency combined with other factors I see developing geopolitically, could undo the West and the financial system entirely, and perhaps global trade as well. I will write more about this truly undesirable possibility in a dedicated article soon enough.

While economic data pointing to decline across Europe is definitely playing a key role in the day’s activity, it should have been expected by readers of my column. You read others to know what is going on today, and you read me to know what will happen tomorrow.

Today or not long from now, the realization that the people may not stand much longer behind ruling regimes, and with sloppy fascism clawing at the door, will drive concern about civilization and spread chaos across securities markets. At the hour of scribbling here, the Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK) and the European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA) were each down between 2% and 3%. For the nation in the news, the iShares MSCI France Index (NYSE: EWQ) was down more than 3%. The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) was off 2.6% and the iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP) was lower 3.2%, as bond spreads widened across Europe. The levity of the matter is even more apparent as we view the 3.6% drop in the iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG) and the 3.9% collapse of the iShares MSCI Italy Index (NYSE: EWI). In my opinion, well-founded contagion concerns have the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) lower more than 1%.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.