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The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.



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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

A Plea for Greece, Europe and Us All

Greek flagIn April 2010 I authored a concerned and prescient plea entitled, Greece News & My Disgust, within which I penned such wisdom as: "The current plan inspired by Greece's big brothers is not feasible. It will only open up black markets, torch the streets of Athens and lead more Greek wealth to leave the country." My prediction did not end there unfortunately, and I hope it is never fulfilled, because I said, "It will only usher in a radical government to replace the current."

Orthodox iconsOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relevant tickers: NYSE: DB, NYSE: STD, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: RY, NYSE: BFR, NYSE: IRE, NYSE: BMO, NYSE: CM, NYSE: ING, NYSE: C.

A Plea for Greece



The rating agencies are correct about Greece. The nation of my forefathers will default on its debts, despite all the latest efforts of the Greek government and the EU. It’s a shame that a bleak end seems inevitable for Greece, given the great sacrifices of the Greek people. Yet, it’s only inevitable because of the blind, bullheaded nature of thinking leading governments today, including in Greece and across Europe. I’ll be offering several creative ideas for legislators that should be digestible to most of them, yet will likely be ruled out because of their out-of-the-box nature, and due to the hard work that would be involved in implementing them. It’s much easier to sign on to pay and pension cuts, until the people will have no more of it, at which point pain is returned to sender, and perhaps earned due to disconnection and ignorance.

Fitch downgraded Greece last week to a level predicting default and S&P cut the Greek Republic this week to a mark indicating “select default”. The rating agency actions were despite the Greek government’s efforts to reduce the country’s debt burden and to cover its current principal and interest payments via troika payout. Greece took the strides necessary for it to assure it could survive through its latest deadlines, but that will not be enough in the end, because they are also undermining themselves with increasingly deeper austerity. Greece will effectively force its private debt holders to swallow a deep cut in the value of their loans through legislation. That move in itself is indicative of default, but remained an option for the already understood to be unreliable sovereign debtor.

When they naively promised not to issue any new austerity measures last year, government representatives Venizelos and Papademos showed a lack of economic foresight that matched poorly against the technocrat label of the latter. That said, judging by the poor excuses passing for economic plans prevailing across the spectrum of decision makers today, the two have plenty of company in poor judgment. Venizelos simply accepts the prevailing option offered up by the majority of intermingled and politically corrupted economic minds, but Papademos should know better.

Our leaders, globally, look to me increasingly like blind mice traversing through a field of big cats. Yet, I fear an overhaul of them would only usher in more ignorant minds with more dangerous courage. For some sad reason, the European actors in the Greek tragedy were surprised when they bumped into revised lower Greek economic activity which left debt levels short of agreed upon watermarks for aid delivery. In Mid-February, fourth quarter GDP fell short of expectations, cut to a level indicating contraction of 7.0% in Greece, down from 5.0% contraction in Q3.

A surprise to the blind rodents, the decimation of the Greek economy was of course exacerbated by austerity, which was something that I warned my followers would happen from day one. Perhaps the captains on the hollow hill will not overlook my advice planned for publishing over the weeks ahead, through which I will offer a series of lifesaving strategies for Greece, Europe and the global economy. I hope I will at least be able to communicate my ideas well enough for them to reach a few ears that might help make a difference. If not, perhaps I’ll come home to clean house.

lambades lambathes Greek wedding candles EasterGreece will certainly default, because the trajectory plotted by its pilots is flawed. Greek navigators from the famed island of my descent would see that what Europe and Greece have done is negligently plan a path that fails to compensate for all factors. It is as if they have plotted a critical course without compensating for the gremlin wind. Thus, we continue to find ourselves obscenely off-course. Now that Germany and a few other mini-members have promised their constituents that no new aid will be issued to Greece, the destination is determined and it is the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea. Though some see the latest promises as political, and so easily undone when the surprise of unmet fiscal goals and uncovered debt expenses resurface after elections across Europe and Greece this year. If that is the case, like Venizelos, they will open their mouths, shrug their shoulders and pass a new tranche of aid as fires fury at their feet.

Without creative thinking, including the ideas I will present shortly to whoever will listen (including the few important ears attendant to me in Greece and Greek-America) Greece will certainly default. With that, spreads will certainly widen for the Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and probably the rest of the previously considered to be untouchables. So whoever is in political office post elections might do better to reconsider political ploys to remain there, because a burning seat is worse than no seat. At the same time, the abandonment of Greece is not the optimal direction for Europe, and may even work more in favor of Greece when Europe fails anyway.

"What I suggest is to save Greece, but by helping Greece to save itself rather than to starve itself."

What I suggest is to save Greece, but by helping Greece to save itself rather than to starve itself. Since the global market is clearly intertwined, it is in the global interest to put the best minds to work developing creative and immediately value-adding strategies into effect. My first suggestion will be one that will require global consideration and approval. For the sake of the globe, I hope it is seriously considered and employed. Stay tuned…

The Default Disaster Missed by Markets

Unless creative ideas are embraced, Greece, Europe and probably the global economy will disintegrate, for related though separate reasons. Given my lack of confidence today in our global leadership, I would shy far from celebrating the stocks of Greece, Europe and even the United States to a lesser extent, if not the world. The argument is only solidified by the Iran trigger, which I’ll soon have more to say about. So the high flying Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK), up 13.7% since inception, though down 12% since my recent warning, should move even lower. Likewise, European shares, contaminated by where the EU’s terrible trajectory will take them, are likewise threatened. The iShares S&P Europe 350 Index ETF (NYSE: IEV) is up roughly 11% through February, and slightly higher since my sell call. This is because European investors could initially view the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro-zone as a positive, but I expect they will be wrong. The Vanguard European ETF (NYSE: VGK) is also up roughly 12% year-to-date, and a bit higher since the February 7th based call. Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are up roughly 24% year-to-date on, dare I say, on a premature vision for European recovery. Reflecting capital flows and prospective hope, American financials like Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares are also up about 28% this year. Reiterating, I see these latest capital gains at risk, though at varying degrees and on perhaps different timing, based on the above detailed economic reasoning.

Article is relevant to Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamericano (NYSE: BLX), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Friday, February 10, 2012

Opa Greek Cultural Cruise - Penelope's Diary

Greek dancing on Opa cruiseAs the world focuses on the tragedy of the cruise ship Costa Concordia, I’m packing my bag for the "Opa Greek Cultural Cruise," sailing Feb. 11 from Fort Lauderdale, Fla. We’ll be sailing aboard a splendid new Italian ship, the MSC POESIA. On last year’s cruise we were drilled in life-saving, not once but twice, wearing lifejackets and going to our stations, so kudos to TravelGroup International! The music and entertainment were exceptional, as were my fellow travelers. I hope that all travelers and “Wall Street Greek” readers in particular will enjoy smooth sailing and good memories of this year’s cruise season. I’d like to share the diary with you that I kept on last year’s trip.

Relative tickers: Nasdaq: ASCA, OTC: ARHN.PK, OTC: BYNEF.PK, NYSE: BXG, NYSE: BYD, NYSE: CCL, Nasdaq: CNTY, OTC: CLMDY.PK, Nasdaq: NYNY, NYSE: FLL, OTC: GXYEY.PK, OTC: GBCS.PK, Nasdaq: WOLF, Nasdaq: ISLE, Nasdaq: LACO, NYSE: LVS, NYSE: VAC, Nasdaq: MPEL, NYSE: MGM, Nasdaq: MCRI, Nasdaq: MNTG, AMEX: UWN, Nasdaq: PENN, NYSE: PNK, NYSE: RCL, NYSE: MCS, OTC: TWOC.PK, NYSE: MTN and Nasdaq: WYNN.

"OPA CRUISE" DIARY



travel writerFriday –I arrive in Miami from New York City on a cold March day, wearily dragging my brightly labeled bag, to join two-hundred other Greek-Americans. We’ve signed on for the week-long “Opa” cruise to the Eastern Caribbean aboard the Costa Atlantica, an extravaganza of an Italian ship inspired by film maker Federico Fellini. It’s a glittering world, away from telephones and e-mail, with nothing do but dance, converse (because Greeks take conversation seriously) dine (forget ordinary eating – this is big-time cuisine), swim, catch the sun, and maybe gamble. It’s my second year as an “Opa” adventurer. Magically, my bag’s whisked away to a gem-like cabin with a balcony overlooking the sea. Also awaiting me, my “Opa” card (a handy, on-board credit device), and a blue and white beach bag. I already feel rejuvenated.

Organized by Dr. Cary and Ellen Pantazis as a fund-raiser for the Ocala, Fla. Church, and orchestrated by TravelGroup International’s remarkable Faye Weissblum, the “Opa” trip’s notable for genuine hospitality. No question goes unanswered. No request is ignored. Leaving my cabin, I swiftly walk to the small gaming casino and touch the magical one cent slot machine where last year I won $620.00. We’re still on land. The machine will have to wait.

That night in the Coral Lounge, an elegant grotto with blue walls and white fantasy trees, Greeks from twenty-two states – California to Massachusetts, Utah to Florida -- and the United Kingdom -- gather. The Aegean Duo -- singer and bouzouki player Steve Tavelaris and musician Nick Mouganis tune up, joined by band leader Nick Travelis. Irresistible Greek music fills the air. The dancers move to the floor and the party begins.

Saturday – Decisions, decisions: Greek dancing lessons with Mary Girmis? Fun and games in the Game Room? Swimming? Basking in the sun? Mambo lessons?

I opt for the Rev. Michael Soter’s religious service, a beautiful way to start a sea voyage. Father Soter blends faith with good humor. “My only other cruise was with the military,” he admits with a twinkle. “I think the services we have every day remind people that you can enjoy yourself without losing your spiritual focus.” Despite conducting his service in the Paparazzi Room, surrounded by blow-ups of Anita Ekberg and Marcello Mastroianni in the film La Dolce Vita, with his purple vestment and the chanting of the service participants, authentic Orthodox spirit prevails.

After the prayer service, I head for the Dante Disco, inspired by The Inferno. The dance lessons are heaven, and I meet “Opa” cruisers refreshing their dancing skills. James Teagarden of Dallas, Texas, son of a Greek mother, a young bachelor, says: “I’m already having the time of my life.” Has he met any lovely young Greek ladies? “Not yet,” says Jim. “But it’s early in the cruise.”

Greek music band Opa Cultural cruiseDancing is the heart of the “Opa” cruise, and the music is exceptional. That night in the Coral Lounge, I talk with the AegeanDuo, musician Nick Mouganis and singer and bouzouki player Steve Tavelaris of Rochester, N.Y. (The third music maker is the amazing Nick Travelis, who also has a group called the AegeanDuo…but that’s getting complicated. We’ll catch Travelis later.)

Mouganis, an adjunct professor of Greek mythology, also has an environmental contract business. Steve is in real estate. Says Mouganis: “Business frees us up to take our music seriously.” Both are married with children, and have brought their beautiful wives on board with them. Steve’s wife, Mary, and Nick’s wife, Lynn, are both non-Greeks but speak Greek fluently and have taught their children Greek. We’re impressed!

Together for over thirty years, the men create a unique, authentically Greek sound. Committed musicians, in the 1970’s, Nick went to Greece with his wife and spent eight months collecting and recording folk music. With a repertoire of between 3 and 4 thousand pieces, they tailor their music to their audience. Says Steve: “We make sure that the energy’s there. It gets people up. People will say to me ‘I’m too tired to dance,’ and two hours later say ‘I danced and danced and didn’t want to stop’.”

Sunday – It feels like we’ve been cruising for a week, but it’s only Sunday. It’s time for our first port of call. Although Grand Turk’s fabled for its blue water and sky, today is overcast. Some opt to stay aboard the ship. With two companions, I book a taxi guide. The well-informed Carlos points out Turk’s many churches and the original source of its income – salt, dug out by slave labor. Most food is imported. A pathetic cow, lacking pasture land, drifts through a garbage dump. Fortunately, islanders prosper on the tourist industry. I buy a small pocketbook for a niece. Carlos tells me to bargain but the store proprietor wisely says: “You want it for a gift – so no bargaining.”

Unfortunately, I miss the lecture by Dr. Gary Pantazis on “Greek Pathologists Who Have Saved Countless Lives,” but receive a glowing report from a fellow “Opa” traveler.

And then it’s time for dinner. I’m charmed not only by the many choices on the menu (no wonder Costa plans so many exercise classes), but by my table mates: cousin Dino Smiros, a retired businessman, and his wife Mary, an artist, of Syosset, Long Island; Joanna Pappas, a kindergarten teacher from Long Island; my sister, Helen King, of Madison, N.J.; Dr. Corinne Courpas, an M.D. and her husband, Dr. Anthony Courpas, a pediatrician of Baltimore, Md; and Fay Rellas, a teacher, and her husband, Judge John Rellas, of Naples, Fla. Conversation topics range from the poet Cavafy to whether it’s wise to indulge in five courses every night . Food-wise, I decide to try everything!

After dinner, I head for my favorite one-armed bandit, but it’s been appropriated for the night. I watch yearningly from another machine and lose money, feeling like a lover who’s been betrayed.

But then it’s on to the Coral Lounge, where the main attraction is a show by comedian Jim Dailakis. I take my seat in the second row stoically, and with a mild burp, having just consumed a sublime serving of “gnocci with five cheeses.” In New York, I live on Lean Cuisine and an occasional minute steak, so my palate is in a delightful state of sated shock. As Greek comics go, I believe I’ve seen it all. Are any surprises possible?

From the moment he lands on the stage in a perfect split (he’s studied martial arts since age 15), Dailakis proves himself a show-stopper. A witty, acerbic observer, Dailakis combines Chaplinesque body gesturing with the off-beat observational skill of the late George Carlin. The audience loves his act as he walks the fine line between brazen lampoon and satire. Why do Greeks live so long? “Church aerobics,” says Dailakis, demonstrating the life-giving up and down actions.

Inspired by Al Pacino and Hollywood, Dailakis moved to New York from Perth, Australia fifteen years ago to study acting. “I’m a Greek who couldn’t wait tables, so a friend suggested – you can always make money in comedy. I tried it once or twice, and it took off. I went home to Australia, where I was offered a three-month tour. The three-month comedy tour is still going.” Dailakis, a writer as well as a comic, creates all of his own material. “What makes comedy funny is the truth. When I get a big laugh, I know that I’ve just gone into the audience’s childhood, because we all have the same parents, the same uncles. I love that.“

Dailakis has written a film, All My Friends Are Getting Married, which goes into production this year, and of course, he’ll play a leading role. “It’s about five guys determined to stay single – but one by one they give in. I’m the one who holds out.”

Monday– We dock at Tortola and I rush ashore to explore the island with four companions and our guide Bage. Even with a seat belt, it’s a wild ride. Steep, narrow roads feature hair-raising turns. Dr. Anthony Courpas observes wryly, “In comparison, the Greek mountain roads look like the streets of Paris.”

Tuesday– Land, ho! Catalina Island. Determined to meet “the real people of the Dominican Republic,” I book a tour that visits an air-conditioned cigar factory. Our bumpy jeep then moves through miles and miles and miles of sugar cane. In the middle of cane fields, our guide stops, opens a bottle of rum, pours drinks all around, and sells us hats to help raise funds for school uniforms.

Exhausted, my eye-balls weary from gazing at sugar cane, I half-wish I had gone to the to the lovely beach, but wrong choices form part of cruising. Consider Odysseus and his mythic booboos, including stopping off at Circe’s island where the enchantress turned his men into swine. (Odysseus did rescue them and forged a warm relationship with Circe.)

Back aboard, we’re treated to a wonderful Greek dinner including spanikopita, fish and baklava, followed by cocktails in the Coral Lounge.

Comic Jim Dailakis performs again. He’s only brilliant! Bravo, Jim!

Dancers fill the floor. “Opa”!

Wednesday– Today it’s “Opa” at sea, with a Greek Festival Party by the pool. The entire ship dances to Greek music, and dines on an outdoor buffet of Greek specialties including souvlakia and baklava. “Opa” cruisers feel their kefi in the sunlight.

Between dances, we chat with several “Opa” stalwarts, including Ernie Memphis, famous for his dancing. Ernie and wife Victoria are committed “Opa” cruisers. “We’re already signed up for next year’s cruise,” says Victoria. “The islands are unimportant. We enjoy the people.” Says Ernie: “We never book a fancy room. We say just get us aboard and put us inside next to the engine. This year, Faye called and said we’re upgrading you to a suite, because you deserve it. That was beautiful.”

Dr. Dean Loomis and his wife Toula, skilled dance partners, have been onboard since the first cruise. “It’s wonderful to be Greek for a week,” says Dr. Loomis. After dancing the afternoon away, Dr. Loomis will give a fascinating lecture on “The Spirit of 1776 and 1821: The Legacy of Our Greek American Heritage.”

Miss Senior Greek AmericaWe’re enchanted by Tula Serves, 87, of Canton, Ohio, recently crowned Miss Senior America, 2010-2011. What’s the secret to her vibrant appearance and personality? “A positive attitude,” the former teacher proclaims. After trying out for the Costa Talent Show, Tula performed Whatever Lola Wants with Marlene Dietrich insouciance while flaunting a black feather boa, and was a huge hit.

Thursday– We visit famous Nassau, the Bahamas, and learn that Greeks arrived here shortly after the Revolutionary War. Today they own jewelry shops and restaurants. On to Paradise Island and Atlantis, the 500-million mega resort, creation of Merv Griffin and Donald Trump. An outrageous pink fantasy, it features a huge gambling casino and a justifiably world-famous aquarium.

Hard to believe, but it’s time to pack suitcases, and prepare to disembark tomorrow. Not before talking to the charming Nick Trivelas who has been an integral musical part of every “Opa” cruise. The band leader, bouzouki player and full-time musician, formed a rock ‘n roll band, but Greek music won out. After studying electrical engineering in college, “the music business drew me back.” As for “Opa,” Nick says: “This cruise is so much fun. I love cruising to begin with, and mixing Greek culture in with it is just phenomenal.”

Ellen Pantazis of the Ocala Church and Faye Weissblum of TravelGroup International, have already begun planning next year’s trip. More than forty have already signed on for the cruise!

Ellen’s brainstorming some intriguing new events, but regardless, “What I like most about the cruises is that every year I see my friends. You make new friends. You see friends you had previous years. It’s almost like a little village, a reunion, and there’s a wonderful familiar feeling. You meet a Greek in any area and have these commonalities. That’s what this trip is about.”

On our last night aboard ship, the musicians put away their instruments. They won’t be playing tonight. I pack my suitcase, itemizing all the things I didn’t do: I didn’t swim with the Dolphins! I didn’t go to the beach! I only sat on my balcony for an hour! I never made it to the fancy restaurant on the top deck! I didn’t see all the Greek movies! But I had a wonderful time.

It’s late. I take the elevator down to the small casino. My favorite machine is free. I put in a twenty and win fifty. I’m tempted to play on, and hear the merry jingle of bells, but take my money and run. I won’t push my luck. I’ll save it for next year.

This article should interest investors in resorts and casino operators including Ameristar Casinos (Nasdaq: ASCA), Archon Corp. (OTC: ARHN.PK), Banyan Tree Holdings (OTC: BYNEF.PK), Bluegreen Corp (NYSE: BXG), Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD), Carnival (NYSE: CCL), Century Casinos (Nasdaq: CNTY), Club Med (OTC: CLMDY.PK), Empire Resorts (Nasdaq: NYNY), Full House Resorts (NYSE: FLL), Galaxy Entertainment (OTC: GXYEY.PK), Global Casinos (OTC: GBCS.PK), Great Wolf Resorts (Nasdaq: WOLF), Isle of Capri Casinos (Nasdaq: ISLE), Lakes Entertainment (Nasdaq: LACO), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), Marriot Vacations Worldwide (NYSE: VAC), Melco Crown Entertainment (Nasdaq: MPEL), MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM), Monarch Casino & Resort (Nasdaq: MCRI), MTR Gaming Group (Nasdaq: MNTG), Nevada Gold & Casinos (AMEX: UWN), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN), Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK), Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL), The Marcus Corp. (NYSE: MCS), Trans World Corp. (OTC: TWOC.PK), Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) and Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Tuesday, February 07, 2012

The Vast Greece Troika Disconnect

Greece troika disconnectGreece is weighing heavily on markets again, as Greek Prime Minister Papademos and Greek politicians across all parties walk a political tightrope. At issue, the demands of its debtors to meet steep fiscal goals, upon which depends the fate of Greece. At play, likely elections that could see wholesale eviction of incumbents. At loss, the credibility of the Greek government, which promised Greeks there would be no new austerity.

Greek writerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX, Nasdaq: ACLI, NYSE: DB, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: STD, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: MS, NYSE: EEA, Nasdaq: VEURX, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: EKH, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: RNE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX

Greece Troika Disconnect



What seems a simple sell for the disconnected Germans and French, is political suicide for Greek politicians and economic torture for the Greek populace. It’s easy for the somewhat dependent yet disconnected European financiers to demand numerical goals be met, as they do not face the once again intensifying protests of the Greek people. The threatening words of Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, that Greek default would only bring more difficult days for Greeks, are less believable with each passing day of despair. Meanwhile, opposition party leader Antonis Samaras, increasingly issues opposing rhetoric while quietly complying to the demands of the troika. The Greek people are not fools, though, and so Greece is left wide open for dangerous political change that could issue in a bold nationalist with a different view. Thus, Europe would be wiser to lower the bar for Greece, before losing it to Russia and/or China, despite blood ties.

It is precisely austerity which is keeping Greece from meeting budgetary goals, as the nation’s GDP faces a steepening uphill battle. Now the desperate actors are seeking even a reduction in the minimum wage. How dare they! The argument that Greece has made its own bed and can face the consequences if it doesn’t like Europe’s demands is losing credibility, because if Europe is sincere in its intention to preserve Greece’s membership in the euro zone, it should be to preserve Greece’s stability as well. Otherwise, it will end up with a Moldova like member that could weigh on its longer term progress besides costing it heavily today. Europe has to decide how far it is willing to hobble its partner for the sake of retaining it. I reiterate that austerity measures would be more effective if implemented over a longer time span, allowing for their less disruptive reformation of Greece’s economy.

As mentioned here in the past, the latest Greek delays may simply be wise posturing by Greek leaders intended to illustrate to Europe the parties’ codependence upon one another. It’s a wise strategy, if I see it correctly, after perhaps inspiring it even with my little column. As Portugal pivots and Spain shivers in fear, Merkel and Sarkozy might consider the political cost of too little support to Greece, should the entire ship sink with the dingy. I suspect Greek leaders might help their cause by bringing their friends home for a meeting in Athens, with a dose of good Greek hospitality. These days, that comes with a Molotov cocktail in the place of ouzo. I would suggest Greek hosts escort their allies through the fiery streets of the hard road Greece is being forced to traverse. It might just open the eyes of the disconnected to the human costs of austerity, and the economic damage of fiscal goals driven by pride and political prowess.

Surprisingly, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) is holding near recently attained highs, I suppose on disbelief that this could end in Greek default rather than agreement at any cost. The iShares S&P Europe 350 Index ETF (NYSE: IEV) is similarly slanted. We’ll see how much the Greek people will bear.

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