False Comfort in The Week Ahead

The week ahead could offer false comfort because of a slew of data coming to the wire measuring months past. Now that the Federal Reserve has changed the game plan and a new paradigm will dictate trade, this week’s economic results could lead us astray. Last week’s performance put fear back into the hearts of investors, as the market discovered that Our Economic Emperor Has No Clothes. In the linked to article, we openly questioned Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s announcement from last week. Certainly, The Efficient Market Has Spoken: This is a Mistake!

Security	Last Week	Year-to-Date	52-Weeks
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)	-2.0%	+11.7%	+19.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (DIA)	-1.7%	+13.1%	+17.0%
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)	-2.2%	+7.9%	+10.9%

• Reflects splits and dividends

The Week Ahead

The week ahead brings with it new data, and it will all measure the activity of months past. In so doing, it may offer a different message than could result in the future due to currently spiking long interest rates. On the other hand, if the data shows weak results, it will bring to market even more fear that the Federal Reserve has detached from reality.

Economic Report Schedule

Data Point	Prior Period	Expected this Period
MONDAY
Chicago Fed Index	-0.52	-0.30
Dallas Fed Index	-10.5	+6.5
TUESDAY
Case Shiller Home Price Index	+1.1%	+1.5%
FHFA House Price Index	+1.3%	+1.2%
New Home Sales	454K	460K
ICSC Store Sales	+0.3	NA
Durables Orders	+3.3%	+3.3%
Consumer Confidence	76.2	75.0
Richmond Fed Index	-2	+2
Investor Confidence	94.8	NA
WEDNESDAY
GDP Q1	+2.4%	+2.4%
Mortgage Activity	-3.3%	NA
THURSDAY
Jobless Claims	354K	345K
Personal Spending	-0.2	+0.4
Pending Home Sales Index	+0.3%	+1.0%
Consumer Comfort	-29.4	NA
Kansas City Fed Index	+2.0	+4.0
FRIDAY
Chicago PMI	58.7	55.0
U.M. Consumer Sentiment	82.7	83.0

In measuring economic activity this week, investors will be looking at some old data. For instance, the GDP Report scheduled for Wednesday is simply a revision of the first quarter GDP data reported and revised previously.

The housing market may play big this week, given that five relative economic reports are scheduled for release. We covered those in detail in another article entitled This Week in Real Estate: Beware Dated Data, so please reference that for more on the subject.

The Corporate EPS Schedule:

Company	Ticker
MONDAY
Elite Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ELTP.OB
American Residential Properties	NYSE: ARPI
Sonic	Nasdaq: SONC
TUESDAY
Barnes & Noble	NYSE: BKS
Carnival	NYSE: CCL
Walgreen	NYSE: WAG
Lennar	NYSE: LEN
AeroVironment	Nasdaq: AVAV
SYNNEX	NYSE: SNX
Daegis	Nasdaq: DAEG
Apollo Group	Nasdaq: APOL
Smith & Wesson	Nasdaq: SWHC
WEDNESDAY
Monsanto	NYSE: MON
UniFirst	NYSE: UNF
Lindsay	NYSE: LNN
Park Electrochemical	NYSE: PKE
Tallgrass Energy	NYSE: TEP
Herman Miller	Nasdaq: MLHR
Casella Waste	Nasdaq: CWST
Paychex	Nasdaq: PAYX
THURSDAY
Schnitzer Steel	Nasdaq: SCHN
Worthington Industries	NYSE: WOR
Winnebago Industries	NYSE: WGO
ConAgra Foods	NYSE: CAG
McCormick & Co.	NYSE: MKC
K.B. Home	NYSE: KBH
OMNOVA	NYSE: OMN
Commercial Metals	NYSE: CMC
CalAmp	Nasdaq: CAMP
Nike	NYSE: NKE
Giga-tronics	Nasdaq: GIGA
FRIDAY
AZZ Inc.	NYSE: AZZ
Finish Line	Nasdaq: FINL
Emmis Communications	Nasdaq: EMMS

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.